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Obrador Leads Consistently in Hard Vote Count

Submitted July 5, 2006 - 5:55 pm by Al Giordano
Here is how the day's "hard count" of official (not preliminary) vote tallies has gone since noon today. Below, I share seven snapshots of the results, which have remained consistently with López Obrador in a healthy lead, now with 64 percent of the actas counted...

12:02 p.m.

25.38% of precinct reports counted:

Obrador: 36.98
Calderon: 34.39
Madrazo: 22.03
Mercado: 2.76
Campa: 0.92

Margin: Obrador up by 2.59%

1:33 p.m.

40.05% counted

Obrador: 36.99%
Calderón: 34.41 %
Madrazo: 21.99 %
Mercado: 2.78 %
Campa: 0.92%

Margin: Obrador up by 2.58 %

2:33 p.m.

50.16% counted

Obrador: 37.15 %
Calderón: 34.39 %
Madrazo: 21.88 %
Mercado: 2.76 %
Campa: 0.92 %

Margin: Obrador up by 2.76%

3:06 p.m.

54.92% counted

Obrador: 37.11 %
Calderón: 34.56 %
Madrazo: 21.77 %
Mercado: 2.76 %
Campa: 0.92 %

Margin: Obrador up by 2.55 %

3:42 p.m.

60.07% counted:

Obrador: 37.09%
Calderón: 34.56%
Madrazo: 21.79%
Mercado: 2.75%
Campa: 0.92%

Margin: Obrador up by 2.53%

4:01 p.m.

62.61% counted:

Obrador: 37.09%
Calderón: 34.53%
Madrazo: 21.83%
Mercado: 2.75%
Campa: 0.92%

Margin: Obrador up by 2.56

4:13 p.m.

64.34% counted

Obrador: 36.98%
Calderón: 34.56%
Madrazo: 21.92%
Mercado: 2.74%
Campa: 0.92%

Margin: Obrador up by 2.42%

The fluctuation of margin between Obrador and Calderón has, in these six reports of the data directly from the 300 recount locales, been limited to 0.3 percent. López Obrador has remained between 36.98 and 31.15 percent. Calderón, between 34.39 and 34.56. It will be highly suspicious if suddenly, if the final third of the count suddenly starts spitting out numbers outside of that general fluctuation.

So, what happens if, at the completion of this process, López Obrador wins the preliminary hard vote count by – if current trends hold – about 700,000 votes?

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