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What Mexico will wake up to...

Submitted July 6, 2006 - 1:55 am by Al Giordano
Two days ago the IFE claimed that candidate Felipe Calderon enjoyed a 1.4 percent lead in the presidential race, with 98.5 percent of the vote, it said, counted. At all times in the IFE preliminary counting process Calderon was in the lead.

Yesterday, they found 2.5 million votes and Calderon's lead shrunk to .6 percent.

Today, during the hard count of precinct results, and the opening of a very small percentage of ballot boxes, more than 94 percent of those hard counts have been tabulated and while Lopez Obrador has been in the lead all day, the last five percent of votes counted will no doubt push IFE's favored candidate Calderon into the plus column when around 97 or 98 percent of the vote is counted.

I estimate - based on IFE's behavior and statistical manipulations on Sunday and Monday - that this "recount that is not a recount" will claim Calderon the victor by .2 or .3 points (80,000 to 120,000 votes, or less than one per each of the 130,000 precincts).

That would still represent a halving of the margin the IFE claimed Calderon had yesterday.

At this rate, the Hidebrando Overlords at IFE will HAVE to rush to judgment and declare Calderon the "winner" late tonight or in the dawn hours because, since each day more votes are found for Obrador, they can't let this drag on even one more day.

So, in the morning, we will likely awaken to "news" that IFE declares Calderon the "winner."

At that point it goes to the high Electoral Tribunal (TRIFE), the judicial arm of the elections system, a body that never met a fraud it didn't like. The plea filed to those judges will be that ALL the ballots be recounted. But there is little hope in the courts to overturn a fraud. It has never happened on a national race.

And everyone knows that justice won't be found from a fraudulent system. But there is another path, below a.nd to the left, toward justice, and the story will take a very dramatic turn very shortly.

I'm not going to wait up all night and pretend there is any chance that legitimacy will prevail. I'll rest up for the battle ahead. See y'all tomorrow.

-a

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