I really doubt that Obama thinks he can win every one of those states. Instead, I think the ad buys are for three main reasons. The First is something Al alluded to. This will cause the McCain campaign to spend money where it would prefer not to. Cash on hand is not one of his camapigns strong suite right now. These ads allow him to define himself before the 527's get there. This was one of Kerry's big mistakes. But finally, and for me one of the most important reasons, his advertising in those states revitalizes the Democrats in those states who have always felt deserted by the national party. As they become more energetic they work harder to elect officials all the way down the line. In effect, Obama is saying I've got your back to the grassroot Dems in states where they have felt they had to go it all alone. This is a step up from Dean's strategy mainly because of the power of Obama. Oh, and I do believe he has a good shot in some of those states, particularly CO,FL, GA, MO, MT, NC, OH and VA and NH. Best guess is he wins 2/3 of them.