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Although it looks at

Submitted August 20, 2008 - 2:03 pm by Laura M. Poyneer

Although it looks at national polls rather than state polls, and state polls are the ones that count, I found this diary at Daily Kos helpful. It shows that McCain's recent strength is due to solidifying his performance among Republicans, but he is losing with independents lately. Obama is gaining with independents, but has lost some soft Democratic support. If this is true in general at the state level as well, I think that Obama is actually in a very good position.

Who would you rather be? McCain trying to win over the very independents he has driven off in the past month, or Obama trying to win back members of his own party? I would think the latter is a lot easier.

If this is going to be a big win (which is not necessarily the case), the most likely model would be 1980 when the race remained very tight until Reagan pulled away from Carter near the end as people became convinced he would make a good president.

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