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I Am Not Grossly Optimistic, but ...

Submitted September 6, 2008 - 3:14 pm by Stephen C. Rose (not verified)

Let's assume that the Obama campaign understands the above and accepts the general look of what is in play and so forth. The whole thing seems to me predicated on the idea that the election will be close.

Here are some possible thngs that might influence that assumption and turn the election into a clear, if not landslide, win for one or the other.

WORST CASE OBAMA

The most obvious would be an incremental and successful campaign by the Rovians based on largely subliminal appeals to fear. This could be aided and abetted by debate losses, random gotcha moments and so forth. The lesson learned is that we did not fight back effectively.

WORST CASE MCCAIN

There is most definitely a smoking Palin gun. The mere willingness of the McCain forces to try to STOP the Troopergate investigation coupled with the High Noon stand off between Palin and the press corps means we are building up to a moment which could work for her or against her. If against, the recession of Palin importance would represent a huge blow to the tenuous McCain cobbling of the campaign into a faux reform model. Even without a Palin meltdown, and I have not touched on every possobility for the same reason that I refused to deal on my blog with similar imputations intil they were admitted, the sheer contradictions within the McCain model of today would create an incremental increase in Obama's fortunes leading to a clear win or landslide.

Another loss harbinger would be health issues relating to McCain.

Another would be his simple inability to escape an umbilical Bush connection.

The John Stewart send up of McCain's big night (JED has it) is practically a Dem. playbook.

The flip side of worst-case Obama could be a serious case of alienation from all things Republican including spiteful impunity politics. This could fuel a simple decency landslide.

In short while it is obvious there needs to be prioritizing for a close and subtle battle,  imponderables can sometimes determine outcomes.

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