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A Landslide is Also Possible

Submitted September 6, 2008 - 3:28 pm by Al Giordano

Rachel Q - I'm offering the most conservative analysis I can. Using those same numbers, Obama could also sweep the "toss up" states and would get 364 electoral votes to 174 for McCain. Toss in Montana, North Dakota, Missouri and Georgia - still plausible - and it's a 396 to 142 blow out. Add Mississippi or say a surprise in Kansas, you're talking 400+ electoral votes.

Also possible is a McCain romp: if he got all the "toss up" states it would be 300 to 238, not that far off from the Bush v. Kerry numbers but not the same scale of landslide as the potential Obama has to create one.

It's just too early to tell which way the swing states will swing. If the popular vote is Obama +5, that would lead to an electoral landslide (even though, technically, a popular vote landslide is by definition a lead of 10+ points). But I think projections - even in their infant stages - should remain conservative.

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