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Poll Watching

Submitted September 17, 2008 - 1:45 pm by Jay in SE WI (not verified)

Some thoughts, because I can't help myself... (though Al's right on ARG's general suckiness this year, as confirmed by Nate).

Those NC numbers aren't encouraging (similar to others, though), but the x-tabs give McCain the 18-49 (granted a huge slice) demo, as well as women.  Hmmm...  For comp, the PPP VA poll has Obama with a 52-44 (18-29) and 48-46 (30-45) age break and Obama is up with women 51-44.

The biggest diff b/w NC and VA seems to be how the pollster suggests each candidate is doing with their party base.  in NC, McCain GOP 89-5, Obama DEM 27-21.  VA:  McC 85-12, O 91-7.  Potential diff b/w NC and VA?  NC sample 75 "White" (M 68-25), 24 AA (O 89-4); VA, no sample, but "W" (M 60-35), AA (O 90-9), Hispanic (O 51-36).

WV does seem like a potential missed opportunity, as Nate (or Sean) suggested a few days back.  ARG says M 49 - O 44, with O winning women and the 18-49, but only taking home Dems 64-31.  Paging HRC...

NVs x-tabs make it seem closer than the 49-46 McCain.  Both do well with their base.  Obama wins Independents and Women and 18-49.  McCain's lead seems based on Men (M 52-43) and a big 50+ ages sample.

Biggest pleasant surprises?  Obama is killing with Indies in CO.  McCain is only at 55% in MS.

ARG seems to think that skimming a few Indies and Men in MT would flip it "blue", too.  Currently at a tight 49-47.

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