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Already Voted in NC Stats - WOW!

Submitted October 11, 2008 - 9:21 am by Catherine Cain

One of the commenters on 538 who is way smarter than me said the following about this poll (look at the Column to the far right within the report titled "Already Voted?")

aussie bloke said:

"Already voted (5% of Respondents)

Obama - 65%

McCain - 31%

The NC poll was taken nearly a week ago with 5% early voting and Iowa taken a couple of days ago with 14% early voting. Both with Obama receiving 65% of the total early votes. Now I know that there is the margin of error to consider with these small subsets of the sample sizes, but if these margins are extrapolated to 25% of all votes (a guesstimated of total % of early voting) then Obama would only require 45% of the vote on election day. If the early vote hits 30% in these states then he only needs 42% of the vote on election day. I guess this stands to reason as Obama supporters are more enthused to vote and vote early, plus many concerned Democrat voters want to ensure their votes are done and dusted and don't endure election day lines, delays and shenanigans."

 October 11, 2008 1:52 AM

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b8aada59-7fd2-4374-bbe2-df789901eca8

The Likely Voters (still haven't) column does show McCain with a higher percentage in this polll but it looks very good for Obama if the strong GOTV in NC continues.

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