I think your analysis is right on. I'm under no illusions having dealt with the knuckleheads inside the Beltway that to them it's little more than a numbers game; right and wrong have very little to do with it.

But even the most resolute oligarch has to pause and note how the overt use of military force in Iraq backfired in terms of securing oil reserves or economic windfall, at least in the short-term, which is how capitalists measure such things. Now that they've had their fingers burned (even if they are too prideful to admit it), it's good to keep the heat turned up, and any voice -- even a politician's -- that serves that purpose is of some help.

I think co-opting, psyop and covert action are the more likely strategies to be employed in South America. And I have little doubt that such a plan is in the works in the smoke-filled backroom of the Bush league. That fits right in with the stealth gunboat diplomacy employed in recent decades by our "elected" knuckleheads -- in the sense of a "Contra" type off-the-shelf operation (whitewashed with a pack of lies and sold to the mainstream yes-press and distracted populace of this country).  

As evidence of your point, the following site is a good representation of how the Monroe Doctrine continues to this day -- and arguably was extended globally in Bush's recent inaugural speech. So, again, I think your analysis is on the mark -- and any optimism I might have is rightly tempered by the grim realities you point out.