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Wall Street Wants Uribe Re-Elected

Submitted February 16, 2005 - 12:23 pm by Sean Donahue
Reuters ran an interesting story this morning under the headline "Colombia Bonds Hinge on Court's View of Reelection."
 

Displaying rare candor, Hugh Bronfield reports that:

"Since December when Colombia's Congress approved a constitutional amendment allowing President Alvaro Uribe to seek a second term in office, investors have assumed he will run in 2006.  But the candidacy of Uribe, popular from Medellin to Wall Street for his business-friendly policies and strong emphasis on security, hinges on Colombia's unpredictable Constitutional Court, which may yet shoot down the reelection amendment and prompt selling of the Andean country's bonds."

Apparently investors are admitting that they depend on the "mano firme" that crushes unions and indigenous, campesion, and Afro-Colombian resistance to provide a "favorable business climate."

Bronstein notes that many analysts fear that the court will bar Uribe from running for re-election.   He quotes one investment manager warning that ""If that happens you would see a significant sell-off across the board in Colombian assets,"

Thomas Smith of MetLife Investments seems slightly less worried, however

"One comforting factor is that there appears to be an array of viable candidates who would seek to continue the current security program and may be even more effective on fiscal and structural reform."

Among the candidates rumored to be considering a run is former President Cesar Gavira, who has used his post as head of the Organization of American States to give international legitimacy to the so-called "demobilization" of the paramilitaries (which has protected their impunity and secured their massive land grabs.)

The more things change . . .

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