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Reforma Poll: López Obrador on Top

Submitted February 28, 2005 - 2:59 pm by Al Giordano
The Mexican daily Reforma (second largest newspaper in the country, very pro-business, pro-United States and pro-the PAN party of President Vicente Fox) has released poll results that - like last week's poll by the daily Milenio show Mexico City Governor Andrés Manuel López Obrador far ahead in the preferences for the 2006 presidential race.

The new poll says:

  • López Obrador (PRD party) 34%
  • Roberto Madrazo (PRI party) 25%
  • Santiago Creel (PAN party) 25%
Regarding the Mexico City governor's support, this new poll is within the three point margin of error for the Milenio poll, which had him at 37-percent, and so is Creel's finish, similar to his 23-percent showing in the other newspaper's poll.

There is, however, a significant statistical difference (seven points) in the total of PRI candidate Roberto Madrazo. He was at 32-percent in the Milenio poll (margin of error would place him at between 29 and 35 points) as opposed to 23 (margin of error placing his opponent between 20 and 26 points) for Creel.

It's not clear whether the pro-PAN newspaper "weighted" the poll results to bring the PAN's Creel into a tie for second place, or whether the pro-PRI Milenio newspaper "weighted" the results to nudge the PRI's Madrazo higher up.

What is clear, though, is that two newspapers historically considered to be affiliated with his two major opposing parties agree that Andrés Manuel López Obrador has a healthy lead over his rivals in the race for the presidency... this, in spite of, or perhaps because of, the anti-democracy attacks against his candidacy.

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