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I was a commodities broker once so let me try
Enviado 1 de mayo de 2004 - 2:32 por Jeffery GreenSome of the terms used in the article like CRB, $/NP rate, greenback rebounds, bps, reduce duration and beta, and lowly correlated with core markets are technical gibberish that impresses the hell of potential new accounts. CRB is the Commodities Research Buro. CRB is an index of several lucky commodities which are indexed (grouped together) and the price is monitored as a measure of inflation. Oil, Wheat, Soy Beans, Copper, Live Cattle, and many more are indexed and the futures contract is traded at the CBOT. If the price of one of the commodities drops, say in coffee, it will not move the index much so their will be little sign of inflation or deflation (a.k.a., depression, recession, and the R word). If on the other hand the whole index moves, up or down, it is seen as a general change in the value of currency (greenbacks in the U.S.). You hit the nail on the head, much like that Mel Gibson movie, on the $/NP thing, (dollar to Mexican New Peso?). I couldnt have said it better except I might have made a quip about Nuevo Peso being a suburb of Santa Barbara. Bps, hummm, I am at a loss here but in context of the article I would guess Brazilian bonds were tattooed, losing 42 bps, or 2.4%, to end the session at 672, would dissect like this. Bps is the Brazilian bonds letter code on Christopher Whalens Trade Station software or Brazilian Pesedos (or whatever script they use) and the value of the bonds dropped by 42 of them. Reduce duration and beta, and lowly correlated with core markets need there own paragraph.
The last paragraph in this article is brokerspeek and is only vaguely understood by the common person. The language is used to explain why a client has lost his or her money with the broker. It is full of slang and technolengo so the client will only say ah hu . . .oh and . . .I see as the broker explains where their money went and why they should another trade. The broker must have advised his clients to buy and now the prices have fallen. . . . but we believe that the correction (movement towards where prices ought to be) in commodity prices will be temporary. We believe commodity prices will soar (go up) after the shakeout ( prices move in one direction until the clients get out of the market because all their money is gone and then goes the direction the broker said it would when the client first made the trade). That is why we repeat our mantra (brokers generally say buy because peoples personal experiences tell them prices go up) . Maintain a defensive position! (A truly defensive position is not having money in the market, but that would mean no commission for the broker, so add the word maintain and an exclamation point and that means buy the futures and cover with a put option, woohoo two commissions!) Reduce duration and beta. This one is true poetry. . .wait I am wiping a tear . .there. Beta is a word the broker read in The Economist while waiting in the lobby to meat clients who are coming in to open new accounts. The word is a math expression used in intermediate algebra and lower level calculus. It is a function if that helps. It is used in the options market to express the volatility of a commodity price. If, lets say, the New Peso traded at 11 pesos to a dollar most of the trading day and 5 mins. before the market closed it went to 22 pesos to the dollar, that would cause a high beta compared to if it slowly went to 22 over the corse of the whole trading day.
The broker needs a good editor for the last bit. The reinsertion of China and the India, (the India? Is it a ship?) representing more than 35% of the world (China + India = only 35% of the population? I think it is closer to 60%)s population, is a permanent process. And, this will ensure a continuous bid for commodities. Just because there are generalized pressures of more buyers over some indefinite future it does not mean you can make money trading on those expectations. The prices may, over the long term go up because of population and new consumers; but trading is short term. It seem smarmy to me that Christopher Whalen is posting his broker add on Narconews. Especially if he is not writing the usual disclaimer past performance is not indicative of future results on the add.
As to the price of cocain, well, tightened credit markets generally do not affect the user. They tend to have such bad credit that even if the rate went down they still could not get a loan. On the production end? No effect at all, as they are cash heavy and do not need to borrow. They even may find it easier to launder money as the tightened credit market will make cash even more King.