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The plot line
Enviado 1 de mayo de 2004 - 12:55 por Bill Conroy- Weakening dollar: The U.S. purposely lowers the value of the dollar so our exports are cheaper -- U.S. widgets cost less in, let's say, Mexico, so Mexicans can buy more U.S. widgets. Instead of nine pesos to the dollar, it's now eight pesos to the dollar, as an illustration. So a $1 widget is a peso cheaper, making it a relative bargain. The problem is, that messes up the Mexican economy, because more U.S. products get sold (which are now made in Asia) and fewer Mexican made goods get bought, putting Mexicans out of work. Since U.S. companies have outsourced everything, the fact that more U.S. goods are getting sold doesn't benefit most U.S. workers here either, just corporate coffers and sweat shop managers.
- The "overheating" or inflation factor is a byproduct of cheap money, deficit spending and an increase in the money supply -- more money is being printed by the goverment.
The lower value of the dollar stimulates demand for products, but the supply of products hasn't changed in relative terms. In fact, supply has likely decreased, as over time, the flood of cheap U.S. goods leads to business closures in Mexico, so there are fewer Mexican goods and more relatively cheap U.S. goods on the shelves. It's kind of like a cancer, a "free trade" cancer, is taking over the Mexican economy. The Mexican government responds by borrowing money to make up for the lost tax revenue, and by printing more money to keep up with the spiraling debt, which has the effect of simtulating inflation.3. Interest rates are increased by the Mexican government to help stem inflation. If money costs more to borrow, less of it is borrowed, which tightens the supply of money in the economy and slows the rate of inflation. The problem is that the higher cost of borrowing creates a boomarang affect by choking off credit. More Mexican companies can't make ends meet, putting them out of business, leading to rising unemployment and a further escalation of Mexican debt. Instead of Mexican businesses, consumers and the government paying 7 percent on their debt, they are now paying 8 percent, lets say.
So now you have inflation, high interest rates and increasing unemployment, ouch.
- Then comes the ultimate whammy. The U.S. government makes the decision to increase the value of the dollar because, well, it can. The short-term fix from the lower value of the dollar has served its purpose for now, so "let them eat cake"; it's time to clear the table of the winnings. We have them hooked on our goods, so we can charge more; what are they going to do? Suddenly, the value of the peso against the dollar goes from 8 to lets say 11. That coupled with inflation, higher interest rates and a decimated Mexican business and labor force due to the flood of cheap U.S. goods leads to a meltdown of the Mexican economy, another "peso crisis" like that confronted in the early 1990s.
- Then the vultures swoop in; offer to bail Mexico out .... for a price, a steep price. Welcome to "Vulture Captialism 101."
Nah, this is just good fiction, right? Or maybe Dylan was right ... "You don't need a weatherman to tell which way the wind blows."