Currently in Venezuela a variety of information is being released by national and international polling groups in an attempt to predict the results of the Referendum coming up in two short weeks. Unfortunately, the impartiality of these polling groups has proved to be virtually non-existent. It has become a routine practice of the opposition to blatantly report information from groups of their choice that have strong interests in the removal of Chávez from power. These “facts” are then being distributed to press throughout the world.
An example of this is a poll that was requested and funded, according to a Reuters wire, by the private television station network Radio Caracas Television (RCTV), which openly opposes the government. This poll, which was published on the website Petroleumworld.com in an article entitled “Chávez fears losing the RR”, was conducted by Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research. Its June study states that the intention of the NO vote has been improving, as an impact of the “missions”, to the point of overcoming the YES vote 49 % NO 44 %. The study shows that the YES is well ahead in Sectors A, B, C and D; the NO is ahead 59 % with the YES vote 38 % in E. It is crucial to keep in mind that those polled in sector E come from the poor neighborhoods of Caracas in which the people are heavily in favor of Chávez.
Interestingly, the conclusion that the YES vote is ahead in the other sectors the comes from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research which is a firm from Washington used by the Democratic Party which is now in Venezuela working on behalf of the opposition. The Greenberg group in addition acknowledges conducting the polls at the request of opposition groups by stating on its web site that they have "helped the opposition movement build domestic and international support for the referendum through a series of strategic surveys and focus groups". Therefore, it is impossible that the information released has any basis in neutrality.
Typically it is crucial to have polling funded by independent groups, rather than one side or another. However in Venezuela this has not been the case. It is all too common to have an unrepresentative sample polled simply for a desired result.
In contrast, with the results released by Greenberg, another June poll by Venezuelan firm DATOS, gave Chávez 51% of support for the recall referendum, against 39% who would vote against him, according to the state press agency Venpres which quoted a source linked to the opposition. DATOS is believed to be friendly towards the opposition. The results of the poll, which was requested by the opposition, were not released to the public. These facts of Chávez succeeding in the polls not being released displays the opposition’s attempts to hide his potential success.
The vast difference in results discovered by different polling groups can be seen when these numbers are contrasted with those realeased by Datanálisis. Datanálisis, in its June Report gives YES 57 % and NO 43 % while it warned that Chávez had been improving the level of response towards his mandate. It concluded that the opposition had greater possibilities of winning the recall. The Datanálisis numbers were highly publicized by the Venezuelan mainstream media, most of which openly opposes the government. In addition, their main clients are those in favor of the opposition.
Once the opposition realized that there was conflicting information in the polls, most notably the lead by Chávez, Venezuelanalysis.com reported that an emergency meeting was called to be held at the headquarters of the main stream media itself, Globovision TV. Those present included representatives of all mainstream commercial TV stations, Globovisión, RCTV, Televen, Venevision, and CMT. It is important to note that these stations control all of the information being released on the mainstream media outlets. While this may not have an affect on the barrio dwellers of Venezuela, since they have already grown to distrust the commercial media, this information can still have repercussions for those international recipients.
A potentially dangerous consequence of publishing polls that show Chavez losing the referendum in international press is if foreign countries expect him to lose, when he wins, the opposition will have the opportunity to claim that the entire electoral process was fradulent. This means even if Chavez wins the referendum vote, the opposition will have a way to discredit the results. As the date of the vote, August 15th grows closer and Chavez´s success increases in the polls, the opposition will look for ways to win at all costs.
In the end, the results of these published polls with a grain of salt. Since there is so much going on inconjunction between the opposition, the mainstream media stations and the polling groups, it is difficult to take anything reported as a public poll figure very seriously. However, at the same time it could be considered worthwhile to take note of the contradictions in the polls and if Chávez continues to be presented as losing the referendum it could be because the international community is actually bracing themselves for his victory and their subsequent action to find a way to take over regardless.
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The real line on Chavez
Enviado 7 de agosto de 2004 - 12:15 por Bill ConroyFirst, any poll or survey is only accurate at the moment it is taken. The next hour, those surveyed could change their opinions based on developing events – so polls have limited predictive power.
In addition, there are a host of factors that affect the validity of any given poll. They can be divided into two camps: internal validity and external validity.
Internal validity deals with matters such as the structure of the questions and whether they are actually measuring what they are intended to measure. In addition, if a poll-taker is biased, questions can be structured to produced answers that play to that bias.
In terms of the Chavez recall referendum, it would be necessary to see a list of the questions asked in any given survey on voter intent to determine if the poll-taker had stacked the deck to illicit a predetermined outcome.
External validity deals with matters such as sample integrity – in other words, were those polled representative of the entire Venezuelan electorate, or was the survey population selected to tilt toward one side of the issue or another. Again, one needs to see the process used to select the survey sample to determine if the survey sample was random or if anti-Chavez forces had a better chance of being selected for the poll.
Another big factor is the error of margin. In order to be considered “scientific,” a poll must have a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent. Essentially, this indicates the range within which the results of the poll cannot be considered accurate. For example, a poll with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent that shows Chavez behind in the polls by 3 percent would be meaningless.
The media, particularly the mainstream media in the United States, consistently publish poll results without providing such context. They ask us to trust them, to believe that they have conducted polls in a “scientific” manner, while at the same time, as Amber Howard reports above, the poll-takers openly admit their biases.
All polls should be put to the tests of external and internal validity and examined in light of their margin of error before they can be taken seriously, and even in cases where those tests are met, we have to remember that polls are only snapshots of the attitudes of people at the time they were executed. And people’s attitudes change. But even when they don’t, they are not always predictive of behavior – voting included. How many people in the United States say they believe (attitude) in conserving natural resources yet still drive (behavior) gas-guzzling SUVs?
More than the polls, we should look to the history of mass support for the Chavez government -- to the people who are willing to march, work and fight for it’s future -- as the best indicator of how the upcoming recall referendum will play out.
The polls are little more than propaganda tools that allow the pundits and mass media to legitimize slanted news coverage that wears the mask of objectivity. The real line on the Chavez referendum is being made in the streets of Venezuela, and in this vote, the inside money is on Chavez.