Mexican Election Authorities With No Result to Declare Bring on a Crisis

Mexico's Federal Elections Commission (IFE) chief Luis Carlos Ugalde went on all national TV channels at 11 p.m., the hour when he had said for weeks he would declare a definitive winner.

As if passing through a customs checkpoint between the past and the future, he had nothing to declare.

No winner in the Mexican presidential contest: not tonight, not on monday, nor on Tuesday. The hand count of ballots begins on Wednesday, July 5. Televisa host Carlos Loret de Mola predicts then vote-counting will be "largo, largo, largo" ("long, long, long)."

Andrés Manuel López Obrador says he won by more than 500,000 votes and said that IFE will "have to respect our victory."

Felipe Calderón claims he won.

The national and international media have a huge story that will play out over many days if not weeks.

And then there is... Oaxaca... An hour after the polls closed tonight in Mexico, the IFE preliminary results, with about 15 percent of reports (not confirmed by the official results from each polling place), had Calderón up by five points (39 percent to 34 for López Obrador).

Four hours later, at 1:20 a.m., with almost 62 percent of polling districts counted, his margin has dwindled to 1.4 points. That is: 37.57 for Calderón and 36.13 for López Obrador.

And the 16 states where López Obrador is beating Calderón have yet to report as many of their votes as the other 16 where Calderón led: the count will thus tighten more and may tip the other way. But in any case, the State enters a genuine crisis with the delay fanning the flames of doubt in the official results.

Two very interesting states:

1. Oaxaca: With only 40 percent of the vote counted the tally at 1:30 a.m. was:

• López Obrador (PRD) 267,372
• Madrazo (PRD) 141,085
• Calderón (PAN) 113,492

This, in a state ruled by the PRI, where Governor Ulises Ruiz's notorious June 14 attack on striking schoolteachers clearly has brought out the "punishment vote" against PRI and PAN that the Popular Assembly promised. See Nancy Davies' Saturday report for a ground level review of the anti-systematic revolt that is planned in Oaxaca in the next few days... Oaxaca is not going to wait for a recount. The situation is very new: an entire state on the doorstep of a peaceful and civilian rebellion and a very "other" idea of what authentic democracy ought to be.

2. State of Mexico:

With about 80 percent of the vote tallied, the results in the most populous state are:

• PRD: 1,907,493
• PAN: 1,413,876
• PRI: 765,170

This is another state where a PRI governor, Enrique Peña Nieto, ordered the May 3 and 4 police riots in Texcoco and Atenco. The proportions of the "punishment vote" are, well... punishing.

The word is out: Use violent repression against social movements and face revenge at the ballot box.

In the coming days, the State's credibility problems will become more evident than before; disbelief in the system will grow, proofs of electoral fraud will come out, and Oaxaca in particular will surface as a showcase fight "from below" under the glare of the national and international media.

The stakes of the post-electoral story are already higher than those of the election story. The whole world will be watching. The system - which for all its harping about how wonderful and clean Mexico's elections would be - couldn't come up with a result tonight. Long-simmering pain, rage and distrust over the unfair game run on the populace by that system is about to boil over.

Any questions?