Mexico Poll: Fox-Creel Attacks on López Obrador Have Backfired
There has been a significant shift in public opinion toward López Obrador (of the Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD) for President in the 2006 elections, and against Creel (of the National Action Party, or PAN) since November. Support for the other major candidate, second-place contendor Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI) remained virtually unchanged since November.
As it currently stands, if the election were held today, the results would be:
- López Obrador (PRD) 37%
- Madrazo (PRI) 33%
- Creel (PAN) 23%
The same poll, last November, showed a close three-way race:
- López Obrador (PRD) 34%
- Madrazo (PRI) 32%
- Creel (PAN) 28%
Other numbers from the new poll...
- 36% of Mexican voters believe López Obrador has the best chance to win the presidency (31% say it’s the PRI's Madrazo, while just 13% believe Creel is most likely to win).
- 40% say López Obrador is the most intelligent candidate (compared to 29% for Madrazo and 28% for Creel).
- 21% say López Obrador has the most respect for the law whereas 18% say Creel does and just 12% say Madrazo does. (Asked which has the least respect for law, 22% say Madrazo, 15% say López Obrador and 13% say Creel.)
- López Obrador, says the public, is the candidate who can best beat the narco-traffickers, fight crime, and guarantee economic stability.
- Madrazo, says the public, is the candidate supported by the Mexican Armed forces and the most likely to increase the national debt.
- Creel, says the public, is the candidate supported by Washington, by foreign investors, and by businessmen.
What this poll shows, most markedly, is that Creel – through his obstinate support for an anti-democracy maneuver backed by Washington – is hemorrhaging support and that support is going not into the undecided category but directly to López Obrador.
Thus, even if Fox and Creel succeed in their effort to drive López Obrador from the race, the victory will be ashes in their mouths, as they will face a tsunami of backlash from the electorate.
The daily Milenio, which commissioned the poll, offers additional analysis:
"If we compare these results with the electoral scenario from last November, the grand loser over the past three months of back-and-forth accusations has been Creel, who after having a probably 10 million votes at the end of last year, now has less than 8 million....The strategy by the adversaries of Mexico City's governor has been so wrong that he (Lopez Obrador) is seen as the candidate who can best fight against narco-traffickers and criminals, and, surprisingly, he is thought to be the one who can best guarantee economic stability.
More to come, shortly, here on Narco News about the events of recent days in Mexico and how the matter of the proposed desafuero against López Obrador has rarified national public opinion to increasingly volatile levels… and if the Mexican people are not allowed to vote their preference at the ballot box, then the phenomenon known as "Mexico Bronco" (the Mexico with machetes and rifles raised high into the air, perhaps, though with a new, more internationally popular, twist of Gandhian nonviolent civil resistance in place of bullets) will return with a vengeance, making a mockery of what will be - if Fox, Creel and Washington get their way - a fixed and undemocratic electoral process.
Exploding....
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Reforma Poll: López Obrador on Top
Submitted on February 28th, 2005 by Al GiordanoThe new poll says:
- López Obrador (PRD party) 34%
- Roberto Madrazo (PRI party) 25%
- Santiago Creel (PAN party) 25%
Regarding the Mexico City governor's support, this new poll is within the three point margin of error for the Milenio poll, which had him at 37-percent, and so is Creel's finish, similar to his 23-percent showing in the other newspaper's poll.There is, however, a significant statistical difference (seven points) in the total of PRI candidate Roberto Madrazo. He was at 32-percent in the Milenio poll (margin of error would place him at between 29 and 35 points) as opposed to 23 (margin of error placing his opponent between 20 and 26 points) for Creel.
It's not clear whether the pro-PAN newspaper "weighted" the poll results to bring the PAN's Creel into a tie for second place, or whether the pro-PRI Milenio newspaper "weighted" the results to nudge the PRI's Madrazo higher up.
What is clear, though, is that two newspapers historically considered to be affiliated with his two major opposing parties agree that Andrés Manuel López Obrador has a healthy lead over his rivals in the race for the presidency... this, in spite of, or perhaps because of, the anti-democracy attacks against his candidacy.