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Reporter's Notebook: Al Giordano

Bolivian President Carlos Mesa Submits His Resignation for Congress to Decide

Posted by Al Giordano - March 7, 2005 at 1:20 am
Translated from tonight's report, below and in Spanish, by Luis Gomez in La Paz and El Alto, Bolivia...

Bolivia President Carlos Mesa Submits His Resignation for Congress to Decide

By Luis Gomez
Via the Narcosphere

In a televised message, Bolivian President Carlos Mesa attacked social leaders Evo Morales and Abel Mamani (from the city of El Alto) for trying to use him. With a series of accusations against all sides in the dispute (the business community, the oligarchy of Santa Cruz), Mesa announced to Bolivia that he will present his resignation tomorrow afternoon to the National Congress.

Between the residents of El Alto, who call, primarily, for the immediate exit by the French multi-national water corporation Suez, and the groups close to Evo Morales and his Movement Toward Socialism party (MAS, in its Spanish initials) fighting to change the new gas law (that doesn’t benefit the Bolivian people), Mesa has opted to “half resign,” and his statement now (it’s 11:36 p.m. in Bolivia) has begun to provoke a more open confrontation in the country.

The State intelligence agency has informed Carlos Mesa that by Thursday the main roads of the entire country will be completely blockaded. However, there has not been any order to repress the demonstrations, neither by the police or the military forces who are remaining on their bases... Tonight, Congressman Evo Morales accused Mesa of a “manipulation” to defend the multinationals and not the poor, of being with “the empire, not the people”

“He wants to resign to avoid bringing forward the agenda of October (2003, when President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada had to resign under pressure from social movements),” said Evo.

In contrast, the party of ex-president Sanchez de Lozada (the Nationalist Revolutionary Party, MNR in its Spanish initials), has decided to accept Mesa’s resignation, according to party leader and Senator Mirtha Quevedo, former minister in Sanchez de Lozada’s government.

Tomorrow, Monday, with the city of El Alto paralyzed and a large assembly predicted for midday, the reactions of the social movements are awaited.

Meanwhile, you can read Carlos Mesa’s Speech (in Spanish) at this link

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Bolivia in Crisis: The Tuto Factor

Submitted March 7, 2005 - 4:18 am by Al Giordano
In his "half resignation" speech (which might better be titled a "please beg me to stay" speech), Bolivian President Carlos Mesa railed against Evo Morales, he railed against the neighborhood groups of El Alto, he railed against the elites of Santa Cruz, he railed against Felipe "El Mallku" Quispe... it's all their fault, he railed, the fact that Bolivia is on the verge of a paralyzing national road blockade.

Already, he said, the city of Sucre (the symbolic capital of the country where Mesa was scheduled to sign an historic, if of dubious legality, gas export deal with Argentine President Nestor Kirchner), is isolated, running out of gas and food, as a result of just the preliminary blockades... the political capital of La Paz soon faces the same... the La Paz airport (in El Alto) on the brink of being closed...

It's absolute chaos, he can't please all sides (the social movements, nor the elites of Santa Cruz, nor - the ones he feared to mention - the pressures by the U.S. government) and any one of these sides has power to block his paths... And so he took a gamble, saying, basically, unless you beg me to stay, I will resign.

Congress, thus, has to either accept or reject his resignation. In a five-party congress with three parties (the old guard MIR and MNR, and the rebel MAS) each splitting decisive votes, the math is apparently simple:

If any two of those three parties decide that Mesa must stay, he stays.

If any two of those three parties decide that Mesa must go, he goes.

The early statements from two party leaders, Evo Morales of the MAS and Mirtha Quevedo of MNR, said "adios and good riddance."

BUT... what they say is not always what they do.

Tonight, U.S. Ambassador David Greenlee is working the phones trying to get the MIR and the MNR to convince Mesa to stay.

The whole thing has the smell of a charade: immediately after Mesa's televised "half resignation" speech, "spontaneous" (yeah, right) demonstrations appeared in the four largest cities in the country urging him to stay. Some wire reports suggested "thousands" participating: in the largest one, in La Paz, the crowd did not reach even a thousand people. There is a kind of simulation going on. Of course. It's politics.

But what is really at stake?

If Mesa stays, the social protests continue.

If Mesa resigns, the social protests continue.

The "line of succession" is not any clearer.

Constitutionally, next in line for the presidency is Senator Hormando Vaca Díez, of the Institutional Revolutionary Movement party (MIR, in its Spanish initials).

He is so hated by the social movements, especially up the hill from the halls of Congress in La Paz, and especially in that shining city on that hill El Alto, that - our sources believe - the population of El Alto will come down from the hills and shut down the National Palace and halls of Congress if he becomes president.

Thus, a scared Vaca Diez was putting out signals last night that if the presidency falls to him like a hot potato, he, too, will resign.

If the number-two guy doesn't take the job, then it goes to Congressman Mario Cossio, of the National Revolutionary Movement (MNR, in its Spanish initials). The prospects for governability aren't any better with him at the helm.

Tomorrow (well, already today) at High Noon, a public assembly in the hotspot known as El Alto will probably have more to do with Bolivia's immediate future than what happens in Congress. El Alto will take the lead and the rest of the social movements - with, together, the power to blockade the entire country to a standstill - will synchronize watches.

What the social movements want is the immediate convocation of a "Constituent Assembly" (with citizens elected from all sectors) to remake the government of Bolivia.

And they want new elections.

And here's where the rubber gets blockaded on the road:

The gringos in Washington have their hand-picked candidate for President in the 2006 elections: former President Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, the darling of the beltway and of Wall Street.

Tuto was Vice President to the former military dictator Hugo Banzer. He filled Banzer's vacancy and served out the term. But, under Bolivian law, it means Tuto can't legally run for president until after July 1, 2005.

Thus, if new elections are convened (and if Mesa's resignation is accepted, no one will be able to govern without calling them within 90 days), Tuto will be effectively out of the game.

(As to the rightness or wrongness of limits on re-election or second time service as president, I've always found such "laws" dubious - the people ought to decide, always, who the president may be - but it is what it is, and therefore the real situation must be analyzed as it is.)

Mesa's threat and diatribe - against Evo Morales, against the social movements, against the elites of Santa Cruz, against everybody - was also a direct hit on the calendar and agenda of Washington.

It puts into the play the possibility that Tuto - who the foreigners consider their coming savior - will not be a candidate in the next presidential race.

Thus, Washington, have toyed with Mesa again and again, suddenly gets toyed back.

And the Viceroy, um, I mean, the Ambassador is up all night trying to save Mesa, like a placemark, for his boy Tuto to be able to replace him after it is legal to do so... after July 1.

This is the untold story behind the story. It's all about Tuto and Washington's cocaine-like addiction to him. And in this, Mesa has just put a vice grip around Washington's eggs.

He's done it from a position of weakness, because his back is up against the wall. But now he's done it.

Now everybody - and I mean everybody - is scared. And well they should be. The prospect of jumping from a devil they know to a devil they don't know is filled with uncertainty and risk. Evo and the MNR may be talking tough tonight about accepting Mesa's resignation. But tomorrow? As Scarlet O'Hara said, it's another day.

But one thing is certain. The social movements march in with or without Mesa. And they remain with the power - no matter who is nominally "in charge" - to blockade the entire country to a halt.

That makes this coming week in Bolivia a hair-splitter for all sides.

Short of a swiftly scheduled Constituent Assembly and fast new elections, the accidental president (Mesa assumed power only by virtue of being vice president to the disgraced and exiled Gonzales Sanchez de Lozada), nobody will be able to govern that country. Nobody.

And Tuto's Washington-pulled strings face the scissors of history and of a law that, when we was president before, was fine by him.

That's the story beneath the story: Washington's rooster in the cockfight is in check. And all the rational exit signs bring elections before he can crow again.

Correction: Elections in 2007

Submitted March 7, 2005 - 1:26 pm by Al Giordano
The next regularly-scheduled Bolivian presidential election is not in 2006, as I typed last night, but, rather, to be held in 2007.

Apologies for the error.

- Al

Bolívia em crise: O Fator Tuto

Submitted March 8, 2005 - 2:46 pm by Dan Feder
Tradução do comentário precedente por Al Giordano. Agradecimentos a Iran Rodrigues para a tradução.

Em seu discurso de “meia-renúncia” (que melhor poderia ser entitulado “por favor, me peçam pra ficar”), o Presidente Boliviano Carlos Mesa atacou Carlos Morales, atacou as associações de moradores de El Alto, atacou as elites de Santa Cruz, atacou Felipe “El Mallku” Quispe...é tudo culpa deles, ele disse, o fato da Bolivia estar à beira de um bloqueio de estradas de nível nacional.

Nesse momento, continuou, a cidade de Sucre (capital simbólica do país, na qual Mesa deveria assinar, juntamente com o Presidente Argentino Nestor Kirchner, um histórico contrato – de questionável legalidade – de exportação de gás) está isolada, já com baixos estoques de combustível e alimentos, apenas como consequência dos bloqueios preliminares...a capital politica, La Paz, em breve estará na mesma situação...o aeroporto de La Paz (em El Alto) na iminência de ser fechado...

O caos é absoluto. Mesa não pode satisfazer a todos ( aos movimentos sociais, às elites de Santa Cruz, e  – embora sem se atrever a mencionar – às pressões do governo Americano) e qualquer um dos lados tem o poder de bloquear seu caminho... Então Mesa decidiu apostar dizendo, basicamente, que a não ser que vocês me implorem para ficar, eu renunciarei.

O Congresso agora precisa aceitar ou rejeitar sua renúncia. Num congresso constituído por cinco partidos, três dos quais (a velhar guarda formada por MIR e MNR, e o rebelde MAS) dividindo a maioria dos votos, a matemática é aparentemente simples:

Se quaisquer dois dentre os três partidos decidirem que Mesa deve ficar, ele fica.

Se quaisquer dois dentre os três  partidos decidirem que Mesa deve partir, ele sai.

As declarações iniciais de dois líderes de partidos, Evo Morales do MAS and Mirtha Quevedo do MNR, foram “adeus e boa viagem.”

MAS... o que eles dizem não é sempre o que fazem.

Durante noite de hoje o embaixador Americano David Greenlee permaneceu grudado ao telefone tentando fazer com que MIR e MNR convençam Mesa a permanecer.

A coisa toda cheira a farsa: imediatamente após a “meia-renúncia” televisionada de Mesa, demonstrações “espontâneas” (certo, acredite!) aconteceram nas quatro maiores cidades do país, todas exigindo a permanência do presidente. Alguns noticiários de imprensa indicavam a participação de “milhares:” no maior de todos, em La Paz, a multidão não chegou a mil pessoas. Há um tipo de jogo de aparências em movimento. Claro. Isso é política.

Mas o que está mesmo em jogo ?

Caso Mesa fique, continuam os protestos sociais.

Caso Mesa renuncie, os protestos sociais continuam.

A “linha sucessória” não é clara.

Constitucionalmente, o próximo na fila para presidente é o Senador Hormando Vaca Díez, do partido do Movimento Institucional Revolucionario (MIR, sigla em espanhol).

Díaz é tão odiado pelos movimentos sociais, especialmente por aqueles nas montanhas acima dos corredores do congresso em La Paz, e mais especialmente ainda na cidade brilhante de El Alto, que – assim acreditam nossas fontes – a população de El Alto descerá das montanhas para fechar o Palácio Nacional e o Congresso caso ele se torne presidente.

Desse modo, um Vaca Díez assustado já na noite passada dava sinais de que se a presidência cair em suas mãos como uma batata quente ele também renunciará.

Se o número dois na linha de sucessão estiver indisponível então a presidência vai para o Congressista Mario Cossio, do Movimento Revolucionário Nacional (MNR, em espanhol). Com Arias no leme, no entanto, as perspectivas de governabilidade não são muito melhores.

Amanhã (na verdade hoje) ao meio-dia, uma assembléia pública que acontecerá em El Alto provavelmente terá mais relação com o futuro imediato da Bolívia do que o que quer que aconteça no Congresso. El Alto tomará a iniciativa e o restante dos movimentos sociais – que juntos detém o poder de levar o país inteiro a uma paralização completa – sincronizarão seus relógios.

O que os movimentos socias exigem é a convocação imediata de uma “Assembléia Constituinte” (com cidadãos eleitos de todos os setores) para a reconstrução do governo Boliviano.

E querem tambem novas eleições.

E é aí onde a borracha fica bloqueada no meio da estrada:

Os gringos em Washington já têm escolhido o seu candidato a Presidente para as eleições de 2006: o ex-presidente Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, queridinho na capital americana e em Wall Street.

Tuto foi Vice-Presidente do ex-ditador militar Hugo Banzer, e assumiu o posto depois que aquele deixou a presidencia. No entanto, de acordo com a lei Boliviana, isso significa que Tuto não pode concorrer legalmente à presidencia até primeiro de julho de 2005.

Desse modo, caso novas eleições sejam convocadas (e caso a renúncia de Mesa seja aceita, ninguém conseguirá governar se não convocar eleicões em 90 dias), Tuto estará efetivamente fora do jogo.

(Com relação à propriedade ou não de limites para reeleição ou segundo termo presidencial, eu sempre achei tais “leis” suspeitas – o povo deveria decidir, sempre, quem deveria ser presidente – mas as coisas são como são e portanto a situacão deve ser analizada como realmente é).

A ameaça e ataque de Mesa – contra Evo Morales, contra os movimentos socias, contra as elites de Santa Cruz, contra todo mundo – foi também um soco direto no calendário e na agenda de Washington.

Ele põe em jogo a possibilidade de que Tuto – a quem os estrangeiros consideram o salvador – não venha a ser candidato nas próximas eleições presidenciais.

Washington, que tem jogado com Mesa repetidas vezes, de repende vê as posicões se inverterem.

E o Vice-Rei, quero dizer, o Embaixador está acordado a noite inteira tentando salvar Mesa, como um “guarda-lugar” até que seu garoto Tuto possa substituí-lo legalmente...depois de primeiro de julho.

Essa é a estória escondida por trás da estória. É tudo sobre Tuto e a atração quase vício que Washington tem por ele. E nesse ponto Mesa consegui agarrar Washington pelo saco.

É verdade que a jogada de Mesa foi feita a partir de uma posição fraca, já que ele estava encurralado contra a parede. Mas está feito.

Agora todo mundo – e quero dizer todo mundo mesmo – está assustado. E deveriam mesmo estar. A perspectiva de saltar de um demônio conhecido para um desconhecido é cheia de incertezas e riscos. Evo e o MNR podem estar falando duro hoje à noite sobre aceitarem o pedido de renúncia de Mesa. Mas e amanhã ? Como disse Scarlet O’Hara, amanhã é outro dia.

Uma coisa é certa. Os movimentos sociais continuarão a marchar com ou sem Mesa. E eles continuarão detendo o poder – independente de quem esteja formalmente “encarregado” – de bloquear o país inteiro.

Isso faz da proxima semana – e para todos os lados envolvidos – um divisor de águas.

A menos que uma Assembléia Constituinte seja marcada rapidamente, assim como também novas eleições, nem o presidente acidental (Mesa assumiu o poder somente porque era vice-presidente do agora desgraçado e exilado Gonzales Sanchez de Lozada), nem ninguem será capaz de governar aquele país. Ninguém.

E as cordas do fantoche Tuto, controladas por Washington, estão agora às voltas com a tesoura da história e de uma lei que durante seu termo na presidência não lhe incomodava.

Essa é a estória por trás da estória: O galo de briga de Washington está em xeque. E todos os indícios racionais parecem indicar eleições antes que ele possa vir a cantar novamente.

Mesa "Resignation" Official, Evo Speaks

Submitted March 7, 2005 - 3:06 pm by Dan Feder
The social leaders of El Alto are meeting as I write, to decide how best to move forward.  According to the Bolpress news agency, the feeling among striking Alteños is frustration with the president – whose resignation was never the goal of their protests – for dividing Bolivians and turning citizens against each other in his speech, rather than seeking a real solution to the crisis. Mesa’s “resignation” letter was just delivered to congress, and congress will likely decide tomorrow whether or not to accept the resignation. Obviously expecting the Congress to support him and reject the resignation, the letter makes vague demands for a “national unity pact” if he is to continue governing.

Meanwhile, Evo Morales spoke to many reporters last night and this morning to give his reaction to the speech that attacked him so strongly. Quoted in the Argentine newspaper La Nacion, he said that the president’s hostile response represents his “racial hatred against Evo Morales and [El Alto leader] Abel Mamani. When there were protests in Santa Cruz, Mesa went to negotiate. He never attacked them as he attacks us now. The real Mesa is a great defender of capitalization and privatization.” He also called the resignation threat “blackmail,” as Senate President Hormando Vaca Díez “is a gangster, he can never be president.”

Speaking on national television, Morales also challenged Mesa to a live debate on the issues.

“The president says that he no longer wants to be a beggar dependent on the international community,” Morales told Bolpress, “but for this country not to be a beggar, its natural resources must be reclaimed. His resignation is a form of blackmail, a way of preventing the agenda of [the gas war of] October [2003] from moving forward.”

Some excerpts from Mesa’s speech last night:

“If president Carlos Mesa and others had said to society that we do not want a Constituents’ Assembly, I could understand perfectly that a measure of presure would be needed, but it is not so. As such, calling a national blockade is simply a fallacy, an act of pressure, an unacceptable authoritarian attitude.

“Could it be that the honorable congressman Evo Morales really wants a Constituents’ Assembly in his image and likeness, an Assembly that he wants, as he wants it, under terms that he obliges us to follow? I hope not.

“I assume that congressman Evo Morales is a democrat and I assume that he will accept, as we are all obligated to accept, that those that we elect to the assembly to decide the new constitution that the country needs, by elected freely and democratically. If that is true, we do not need them to blockade us, we do not need them to threaten us, and we do not need them to back us against the wall, for a result that no one is saying that they are against, least of all the President of the Republic.

“As such, the first argument for the national road blockade is unacceptable. The National Congress must aprove a law to create a Constituents’ Assembly, and as far as I know, the National Congress has never said that they would not consider such a law.

“The second element that Evo Morales has argued has to do with the approval of the Hydrocarbons Law. What Hydrocarbons Law? The Hydrocarbons Law that the honorable Evo Morales, chief of the MAS, has proposed is an unviable and impossible law.

“I want to underline what I am saying: it is an unviable and impossible law…. What Mr. Evo Morales proposes is a law that the international community will not accept, and one which the oil companies will bring to court.”

…

“The international community is everyone, not just one country. Don’t be confused by thinking that we are receiving pressure from the United States and that they want to destroy us, because that is a lie. We have received extraordinary support from the international community, and that extraordinary support is based on Bolivia having reasonable rules with that community, and I will not approve a law that will make Bolivia into an international pariah in two weeks.”

…

“If the mechanisms of cooperation are cut, our country can not function. I do not like that, that makes me feel very bad, and I am working so that together we can get to a point in a few years where this does not happen again, and where we can say to the teacher that I am paying you money that comes from our own country, rather than that your salary comes in part from handouts from other countries.”

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