Posada Carriles may well choke on Bush's pickle

Accused anti-Castro terrorist Luis Posada Carriles will have to sit in a jail cell in El Paso, Texas, a bit longer. His bail hearing before U.S. immigration judge Lee Abbott has been postponed until July 25, according to news reports.

Strangely, the major mainstream media outlets have been slow to pick up on the news.

If you recall, Posada Carriles was arrested in Miami in mid-May after allegedly entering the United States illegally via the Texas/Mexico border. He then claims to have taken a bus from Texas to Miami.

Well that tall tale may be coming back to haunt the long-time CIA operative who is accused of blowing up a Cuban airliner in 1976, snuffing out the lives of some 73 innocent people. Of course, that is just the tip of the ice pick in terms of the crimes Posada Carriles stands accused of in the eyes of the world. Venezuela, in particular, wants justice served up to Posada Carriles and is seeking his extradition in connection with the airline bombing.

The 77-year-old Posada Carriles is a native of Cuba but later also became a citizen of Venezuela, where the airline-bombing plot was allegedly masterminded. Now, he is seeking to wrap himself in the U.S. flag in a bid for political asylum – part of a desperate attempt to protect himself from the fate his past deeds have thrust upon his future.

But it’s tough to beat fate when you’re playing against the house. Posada-Carriles made a critical mistake in his return to the shores of the U.S. of A. Most folks inclined to look a horse in the mouth won’t buy his claim about entering the states through Texas. It is almost certain he was delivered to the shores of Miami with the assistance of his benefactor, Santiago Alvarez, and a misguided shrimp boat captain who, prior to reaching U.S. soil, washed nearly ashore with his crew in public view off the coast of Mexico.

If only Posada-Carriles would have stuck with the Miami version of the story, instead of the tall Texas tale, he might be sitting in the catbird seat today, facing an immigration hearing in Miami. Instead, he’s now a jailbird in El Paso with the paw of the mighty U.S. government planted squarely on his soul.

How can this be? How is it that the U.S. government, which created this Frankenstein Posada-Carriles, is now seeking to cage the monster?

Remember, pride is the devil’s fatal flaw. The Bush Administration has made it known to the world that it has a zero-tolerance policy on terrorism: You’re either with us or with the terrorists, right?

The arrogance of such a philistine foreign-policy stance, though, is certain to become a bitter pill to swallow when you find a terrorist caught up in your own system. That is precisely what has happened to the Bush Administration in the Posada-Carriles case.

The White House is now confronted with a terrorist who has played for their team: Posada-Carriles -- and they don’t want too many of his dirty little secrets getting out in the sunshine, particularly in a Venezuelan court of all places.

But the Bush Administration, despite its deftness at making buzzards appear to be eagles, has been caught in a game of pickle. If they run toward the base called “asylum,” the world media currently focused on Posada-Carriles will surely tag them out. If they run toward the base called “extradition,” they can’t get around Venezuela’s claim on their CIA operative.

So what to do?

First, back to that pride thing. The whole reason the White House finds itself in this pickle is because Posada Carriles jumped off base to begin with by shooting off his big mouth. After all of the cloak-and-dagger tactics that were employed to assure his safe passage to Miami, Posada Carriles decided to jump on a soapbox to brag about his adventure by granting an interview to the media.

In other words, Posada Carriles put the spotlight on himself, in an act of egotistical stupidity, forcing the Bush Administration to swoop in and pick him up -- via U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) -- before he did even more damage to the Administration’s already putrid world image.

But the big question is why did they move Posada Carriles to El Paso, Texas?

If the Bush Administration really wanted him to be granted asylum, wouldn’t they have left him plead his immigration case in Miami, where he has the backing of the anti-Castro Cuban community and political machine? Instead, they arrested him the day after he granted an “exclusive” interview to the Miami Herald, flew him to the former Homestead Air Force Base in South Florida and then sent him directly to jail in El Paso.

Narco News decided to ask a number of high-ranking law-enforcement officials who have experience with immigration and intelligence-agency matters about this strategy. They agreed to share their views, if we would agree to keep their names confidential.

Following is their take on what is now happening to Posada-Carriles and why the recent postponement of his bond hearing comes as no surprise:

Source 1: A former high-ranking DEA official

“If he was a CIA operative, and he was, I don’t think the CIA wanted him in custody,” the source says. “But he had the audacity to grant an interview with the Miami Herald, and he was arrested the day after that interview. … He did a stupid thing and rubbed it in the government’s face by coming into the U.S. illegally and then having the balls to grant an interview to the press in the middle of Miami.”

The source adds that if the immigration judge in El Paso was really under political pressure to grant Posada Carriles asylum, then he would have granted his motion to have the case moved to Miami, “but he didn’t.”

“They’re going to keep him in custody where the government can keep an eye on him,” the former DEA official says. “How many Cubans are incarcerated already (in the United States)? They can hold him indefinitely, until he dies, maybe due to bad prison food.”

Source 2: Another former high-ranking DEA official

 "They put him in El Paso to bury him. They picked him up because they had no choice (after he went public) and they put him in El Paso, a small community that doesn't get much media attention."

He adds that the government "would have been content to let him wile away in the Cuban community, but now they have a political hot potato on their hands." The source adds that the Bush Administration is faced with the hypocrisy of its own stand on the war on terror.

"So they will prolong the situation and keep him around for years pretending it is being litigated. He is not in good health from what I understand, so it will get tied up in the courts for the few years he has left, and he will die in prison."

The source adds that after a time, he will be put under "house arrest." What that means, the source explains, is that Posada Carriles will be put in a minimum-security prison or other confinement where he will be under guard 24/7. The former DEA official adds that he knows of people who are in this situation right now and have been under “house arrest” for three years or more.

"Their (the U.S. government's) hands are tied. They've taken this strong stand on terror, and now they have Posada Carriles."

The source then slammed the mainstream press, saying that it's just amazing how they let the Bush Administration get a free pass on scandals like these.

"They talk about state control of the media in Iraq. The same thing exists here (in the U.S.). If the New York Times or the Washington Post would publish something too negative, the White House would cut them off, so they don't pursue these things."

Source 3: A private consultant who does work for the intelligence community

"They will get Posada Carriles in prison." the source opines.

"He will die of syphilis. That would be the easiest excuse. He's never had it before, but they will give it to him. (The disease) takes 25 years (to kill you) if not treated. In his case, they'll condense his syphilis.”

Source 4: A high-ranking Department of Homeland Security (DHS) official

This source agrees that Posada Carriles was sent to El Paso to be deep-sixed until the flurry of media coverage dies down. However, he departs with the others in predicting Posada Carriles’ ultimate fate. He says what will matter is whether the government (the Agency) thinks Posada Carriles is still "useful."

If not, well the DHS official does concede the government is capable of anything, including causing an inconvenient exit from this life for Posada. But he says that is a very extreme outcome. It's more likely, the DHS official says, that Posada Carriles will just rot in prison.

But, if deemed useful, then he will be held in El Paso until the media sunshine on his case is eclipsed by other news.

"Why take Posada out, because he still might have information that is useful, or he might still be useful?” the source explains. “If he is alive, then he can be useful. I think (after the press dies down) they will load a van with 100 illegal aliens, put him in, and take him back to Mexico and drop him off.  

“... Who's going to know if the Agency shows up with a document that looks legitimate to transfer him to a different prison, and then he disappears?"

As far as the media picking up on Posada Carriles’ "disappearance" down the road, this source says: "The media will not get hold of it. It will happen after everything has died down. If someone in the media does try to get at it, they'll tie the reporter up in knots and back him off the story. And no one will care."

On the record

One former law enforcement source was willing to speak openly about his analysis of the situation. Lok Lau is a former CIA operative and FBI agent who worked a deep undercover assignment spying on China in the late 1980s.

Here’s his take on Posada Carriles:

“I think he used the media as leverage to try to get asylum, and he was betting on the fact that he wouldn’t be arrested,” Lau says. “I think they arrested him because people in the (U.S.) government got scared. If you were a top dog at the CIA station in Florida, would you want to take a chance on Posada Carriles and risk that your career might be ruined, or would it be easier to arrest him and shut him up? Most of these guys in the government are only concerned about themselves and their careers, so why would they stick their necks out (for Posada Carriles)?”

Lau adds that Posada Carriles was “playing a high risk game trying to get something over on the government.”

“He lost in a game of power politics,” Lau says. “People in the government are running scared now. The war is going badly, the polls look bad for the President and the Congress, so no one wants to be left holding the bag when the shit hits the fan.

“This guy has a lot of baggage. If you put together a list of his dirty deeds, it would be thicker than the Holy Bible.”

As far as what might happen to Posada Carriles in jail, Lau concedes there is a “possibility they will knock him off.” However, he says a much more realistic outcome is that he doesn’t survive the prison experience due to a type of benign neglect.

“I’ve been in jail as an undercover agent,” he explains. “The criminal element and gang activity is so bad that if they want to get rid of him, all they have to do is make it convenient for him to die by not doing enough to protect him.”

So there you have it. Posada Carriles has come to “America” wrapped in the flag seeking asylum. And he may well soon find himself buried in America, wrapped in a flag, in the shelter of a coffin.

Sometimes, fate is the ultimate form of justice.