Health Care Is a Game of Inches

By Al Giordano

This is it.

It all comes down to the next seventy-two hours, and who gets on the field and claws for every last inch.

The US House of Representatives will be in session this weekend to vote on Health Care Reform and every “whip count” on the tally shows it razor close.

The magic number is 216: That’s the number of votes that will be needed for the bill to pass (or, alternately, to kill it, if all members cast votes). The “yes” side claims 204 solid votes, the “no” side claims 210 (caveat emptor on both counts): In the middle, there are said to be 16 conservative Democrats being pushed and pulled from all sides.

But those “whip counts” can be deceiving because we now enter the hours where defections from both sides are already happening and likely to continue (plus, the predictable threats from Congressional critters seeking to exact eleventh hour concessions on other matters in exchange for their votes).

The President flew to Cleveland this week, turned US Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) from a “no” to a “yes,” and, with feeling, Kucinich then went on Democracy Now and pwned naysayer Ralph Nader (talk about a perfect foil) with his newfound support for the bill.

In these final hours, look for the media to ratchet up every rumor and morsel of distraction to make your heads spin; aimed in some cases at emboldening one side, or at demoralizing another, and in all cases on grabbing your attention.

Keep this in mind: NONE OF THAT MATTERS. The media doesn’t get a vote on this. Only members of Congress do. Health Care Reform is going to be decided in the trenches: district by district, member by member, phone call by phone call, and inch by inch.

President Obama has now cancelled his planned trip to Asia this weekend to quarterback these final minutes of the game. The AFL-CIO and the unions are on the field, blocking and running interference. 99 percent of the Netroots blogs are in the fight, led by the Daily Kos and with Nate Silver of 538 up in the coach’s booth with the binoculars. Organizing for America has the plays and instructions cued up and ready for everyone that wants to be on the field.

While the relevant players are calling, writing and faxing US House members, a good number of the kill-billies (on the right and the few stragglers that claim to be on the left) are in full freak-out mode. (Worrying about whether Rahm Emanuel is “vindicated” or not, and whether if he’s vindicated if that somehow vindicates their stalker-like obsession with Rahm; how lame is that?) We will deal with them handily after all is said and voted. How we deal with them will largely depend on whether Health Care Reform rises or falls this weekend.

Right now, and for the next 72 hours, the only thing that matters is the ground game: Which side generates more phone calls, faxes, visits, emails and other creative pressures on members of Congress.

Which brings us, once again, to this locker room speech from Al Pacino (remember the only other moment we posted this, Field Hands?): Life is a game of inches:

“We can climb out of hell, one inch at a time… Life is this game of inches… The margin of error is so small, I mean, one half a step too late or too early and you don’t quite make it. One second too slow or too fast and you don’t quite catch it. The inches we need are everywhere around us. They’re in every break in the game, every minute, every second. On this team we fight for that inch. On this team we tear ourselves and everyone around us to pieces for that inch. We claw with our fingernails for that inch. Because we know, when we add up all those inches, that’s what makes the fuckin’ difference between winnin’ and losin’, between living and dying… That’s what livin’ is: the six inches in front of your face.”

Spend four minutes watching it. Then go grab every last inch that appears for the next seventy-two hours. In the case of Health Care, for millions, this "game" really is a matter of living or dying.

History is never made from the sidelines. It is made on the field, by those who claw with our fingernails for that every last inch.

 

Comments

Amen.

I hope you posted this around the tubes.  As many people as possible need to read and heed.

from "paleo" to "post"

Yes it was interesting to listen to Goodman & Gonzalez' interview. Kucinich went out of his way NOT to defend the bill as policy -- in fact he completely accepted Nader's economic critique, that it's a big step backward on the merits -- but declared that he was persuaded to vote yes exclusively by "what this means in terms of the Obama presidency". So he agrees with Al that this is just a football game. OK, team, that's a familiar mentality to which I can relate, but Vince Lombardi is dead and -- accepting for the sake of argument the Kucinich-Nader analysis of the MERITS of the bill -- I wonder WHEN Coach Al thinks that policy can ever trump game theory in the peculiar system operating in the Homeland? Paleomarxists would say, "in the final analysis", but I have this postmodern sense that U.S. politics just gets further and further disconnected from reality with every electoral cycle. Goddam Nixon's health insurance proposal is, by present standards, utopian!

Thanks, Al!

Linked your post over at OFA.

History...out here in The Field...I get my back into my livin'.

 

OMG

BEST POST EVA!!!!!!!

Thank you.

That's all I've got...just thanks.

@ Freddy

Freddy - It really isn't accurate to claim that Kucinich said his change was "exclusively "what this means in terms of the Obama presidency." In fact, his exact words before mentioning Obama at all were, quote:

"I came to the conclusion, Amy, that it was going to—it would be impossible to start a serious healthcare discussion in Washington if this bill goes down, despite the fact that I don’t like it at all. And every criticism I made still stands.

"I want to see this as a step. It’s not the step that I wanted to take, but a step so that after it passes, we can continue the discussion about comprehensive healthcare reform, about what needs to be done at the state level, because that’s really where we’re going to have to, I think, have a breakthrough in single payer, about diet, nutrition, comprehensive alternative medicine. There’s many things that we can do. But if the bill goes down and we get blamed for it, I think there’ll be hell to pay, and in the end, it’ll just be used as an excuse as to why Washington couldn’t get to anything in healthcare in the near future. "

That's not "game theory." And I'm not really moved to repeat what you've heard a thousand times already about the policy aspects (21 million more covered, no denying insurance to children with pre-existing illnesses and so much more). My view is if people shut their ears to the first time they hear it there is no use repeating it 999 more. That is either important to you or it is not. It *is* important to me.

Deem and Pass Vote

There was a vote in the House today on whether deem and pass (i.e. rather than vote for the HCR bill then wait for the Senate reconciliation bill, vote for the HCR bill as though reconciliation were a given and had already passed) was even going to be allowed. It passed 222-203.

 

It's hard to imagine a Dem Congressperson voting Yes on that, and then voting No on the bill itself...

 

http://singcitychronicles.blogspot.com

@ Freddy ... history intervened

Between Nixon and Obama the US political system became profoundly more conservative.  Sure, Nixon played to the law-and-order narrative, but he also tried to grab the broad middle and in the end he was a cold war statist more than a conservative or neoliberal ideologue.  In the interim:  deindustrialization, deunionization, the extreme weakening of civil society, and a broken line of communication and learning between generations of activists.

Thank you for this

Thank you for this refreshing post. I devoutly wish you'd post it on The Daily Kos. But if you do, please give us a heads-up. It'll take me about ten minutes to get the popcorn popped, buttered, and salted.

@ Leanne

Leanne - The thing is, the Kossacks don't even need to read it. 80 percent or more of them have weighed the arguments on each side, lived through the last three months, and reached pretty much the same conclusion. By and large, they're on the same page.

Or, in Field Hand-speak, the Chicken Little inoculations have proved as lasting and durable as the Polio vaccine.

Field Hand-speak

The inoculation keeps me going with OFA, despite viral invasions on many fronts.

Dr. Salk would be proud, Al.

Word!!!

This got me ready to fight for those last inches (like the 12th man would).  That's why it should be posted at DKos.

 

Thanks Al!

Been fighting for 15 years and 11 months

Hi Al,

Thanks so much for your post.  Our group organized 75 people just this week to visit our congressman Luis Guttierez's office to ask him if he had LOST HIS MIND in trying to vote against this bill.  He promptly announced his support a mere 24 hours later.

We have been knocking on doors, hosting teach ins and events here in Illinois since February 2009.  We are in the home stretch of this vote and yet we know that progressive change is ONGOING.  We will be pushing for medicare for those 45 and up immediately after this bill passes.  La Lucha Continua!

Need to keep our eyes State Level sabotage

Al,

Thanks for the rallying call to action on passing HCR. My question is this. What do we do about what appears to be a well-orchestrated strategy by repugs to undermine federal legislation at the state and local level? Certainly this is not new, but the announcement coming out of Arizona today that the Governor was cancelling SCHIP coverage for all children is alarming.

This comes on the heels of 30+ states threatening to block parts of the healthcare bill if it should pass, including the mandates (I know you are personally against the mandates). But at a core level this is mutiny taking place, that we win major battles to HELP the disenfranchised only to see those victories gutted and mocked at the implmentation points at the state level.

 

And considering the bankruptcy of the corporate media institutions, the wingnut state officials will be able to get away with denying their own citizens the benefits of federal legislation, without any repercussions whatsoever. If you factor in the measely state of local investigative journalism whose near complete death (save sports news coverage) is well underway, Our efforts may be like trying to fill a bucket with a  huge hole at the bottom.

 

I don't want to sound chicken little, but I'm spooked by the Arizona SCHIP story. I'm interested in what remedies we could have besides court challenges (if even those are feasible). Obviously, liberals need to pay ever closer attention to local elections, not just big ticket federal elections, which is where these cooky decision makers get free rein to do the most harm to us. E.g. the TExas Education board deciding with so much as a flick of the hand who gets to remain or thrown out of the curriculum that children across this country will learn about.

Great post Al!

I hope you provide live updates tomorrow as we count down to this historic vote. I am so excited. We are going to get the ball in for a touch down and win this thing.

Well Al, as a fieldhand I diaried in orange satan today

and to my shocked surprise, it hit the wrecklist.

Take a look if possible and see if I did ok.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/3/20/848110/-Obama-is-stubborn.Kicks-Rahms-ass-constantly.

amk

Great post Al. Have always

Great post Al. Have always loved that clip. Just called my rep.

I am a huge Kucinich fan and am thrilled that he is voting yes.

@zizi

The federal government will get their compliance by doing what they always do, withhold federal money (they'll fold as fast as you can say "Chinless").

"We are not bound to win. We are bound to be true."

If you have not watched Pres. Obama speaking to the Dem. Caucus, please take the 46 minutes and watch our Organizer-in-Chief in action for people like me.  He told me a few days back not to worry, that we'll get it done.  Thanks, Barack.

http://www.c-span.org/Watch/Media/2010/03/20/HP/R/30882/WEEKEND+DEBATE+O...

I watched that Lorie @4:56

Obama's speech to the Democratic Caucus and this video have the same feel. We gotta go out and win every inch, every vote we can. It feels very close.

But man, will it be like this all over again in the senate again? Didn't we already go through these houses of Congress already??

@ Beth in VA

The House is voting on two different bills on Sunday. The first of these is the big healthcare reform bill passed by the Senate on Christmas Eve. Because the House will pass the same version of the bill that the Senate passed, the bill goes to the President to be signed into law as soon as the House passes it. It does not need to return to the Senate again. And this bill does all the work of healthcare reform. Again, once the House votes in favor and Obama signs, healthcare reform becomes the law of the land. The second bill that the House is voting on is a small package of adjustments to the Senate bill. This is a new bill so it does have to go to the Senate next. However, because the adjustments are budget-related, the Senate can use a process called reconciliation to pass it with only 51 votes instead of 60. More than 50 Democratic Senators signed a letter pledging to pass this adjustments bill. The Republicans will try to obstruct it, but it should be pretty easy for the Senate to pass it.

Stupack's basically on board

On MSNBC this morning, Stupak really left little doubt that an agreement was close, sayiing that it was just a matter of hammering out final language on an executive order that would incorporate the Hyde language.

Once you get down to haggling over language in an executive order, you're basically home-free. It's time to celebrate.

Yes they did

Stupak & Co. on board; deal is done.

Next up on the organizing to do list: immigration reform.

Immigration Reform

Yes, Lucidamente we are already preparing in Texas for this!!

We're going to turn Texas a most beautiful shade of blue in 2012!

@ Lucidamente, @ momformerlyinmaine

You gals are stealing my best lines for tonight's upcoming victory pep talk!

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About Al Giordano

Biography

Publisher, Narco News.

Reporting on the United States at The Field.

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