Gallup: Oops!

I was polled just last night and pressed "1" for Democrat so firmly and as often as was possible that I practically broke the key.

The reaction to all this polling by the MSM and blogosphere is just another example of the herd mentality of our so-called liberal media. Among the many tragedies of our supine press corps is how astonishingly unprepared and underinformed they are in their interviews and stories. Basic questions are unasked and basic facts and contradictions are untouched. Stenographers, the lot of them.

I'm interested in your take on the Tierney-Hudak race in MA's 6th district. The smart folks insist Tierney is a lock, but these were the same smart folks who insisted that Scott Brown didn't have a chance. I'm seeing similar patterns in process from the Hudak campaign (which now appears to be a template for Repubs) as we saw in Brown's. Tons of yard signs, letters to the editor, buzz, fundraising. Zilch from Tierney. I'm hoping we've got heavy investment in GOTV. This isn't a year to take anything for granted.

I've been knocking on doors and making volunteer recruitment calls all week.  My first impression is that Democratic voters are well aware of what is at stake and have every intention of voting in this election.  In my humble opinion, the person the Republicans ought to be in fear of is David Plouffe.  You couldn’t find a more innocent-looking, seemingly harmless individual if you tried.  But one 3:26 minute video from him can do more to rally the troops than any fear-mongering from the stenographer/pundits.  No one at OFA is taking anything for granted, of that you may be sure.

My two cents to your readers, Al: the only people who get to talk about what the Dems should be doing are the people who are knocking on doors, making phone calls and registering voters.  If you’re not working to keep the Dems in power in Congress, then stfu. 

Michael Steele = scapegoat?  Probably because he has done next to nothing to fill the Republican Party’s coffers.  He’s 100% expendable.  I’ve read that he’s completely loyal to the Party, so he might be willing to take the fall for any failure they suffer.

Last year, I took the liberty of gathering all the fundraising data for 2008 House races into a nifty Excel chart. I breakdown the races by All Races, Contested Races (where both major parties bothered to field a candidate), Losers who raised any money, and Losers who raised at least 100K (that seems to be the cut off point, anyone who made less than 100K absolutely did not win a House seat). I also did this for Incumbents, and used all of those categories for Incumbents. It should come as no shock to anyone that in most cases, the ones who claimed victory were the ones who raised the most money.

Also, for those who want to talk about how Incumbency is this horrible thing to have right now, I'd like to make the point that in both 2006 and 2008, well over 90% of all incumbents who were renominated by their parties went on to win again in November (that is something that must be remembered when talking about the daunting task the Republicans have in trying to win over 40 seats for their majority, if you include likely losses in LA-02, HI-01, and IL-10; with a couple of other possibly competitive races in PA-06 and FL-24)

Politics and more

                     

T                                hese polls have more swings than a schoolyard.

Polls, schmolls.                                 

                  

Just to follow up: the David Plouffe video is at http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/plouffeyoutubepopup

Thanks for the smile, A M.

I agree that OFA is taking nothing for granted.  I agree that Democrats know what's at stake in this election. I agree that sometimes voting is like going to the dentist.  I try not to hold my nose anymore while voting.  That's change for me.  The Plouffe Pep Talk did get me in campaign mode. Must be his boyish charm!  My Autumn work schedule is nearing completion.  I will then know my organizing/phone bank/canvass schedule, which I am treating as another one of my jobs. 

Part of my comment on one of Al's recent entries reflects how I am approaching the 2010 vote:

My media consumption has really changed over the past year. Very unplugged.  Grateful to have work and listening to music and dancing more instead of listening to or reading crap. Who wants that shit all over them? Now that the cooler weather is setting in, I am renewed physically and will be working with OFA/MO to get out the vote.  Over 200,000 doors of voters were visited the same day that G. Beck and Co. held their event.  I thought that was positive.

http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/4092/coach-s-log-regular-seaso...

Any Democrat who is sitting back chillin' and relaxing and waiting for Barack Obama to show up on October 31st to ride in and save the day deserves to lose.

I commented last week over on Booman about one positive in the outrageous media meme business. As I said then, after the Labor Day speech when Obama gets rolling, and assuming competent campaign surrogates are deployed strategically, the momentum could begin to swing back to the tipping point where a new media favorite takes hold: the comeback kid. Right on cue, Obama's team has rolled out a Boehnerific, no more tax cuts for the rich middle-class oriented strategy that's a breath of fresh air for one and all. It's uplifting and contagious. If they keep Obama on the campaign trail, look out.

The other thing I wonder about is the effect in key races of the Latino vote. How well is this population polled? My sense is that it's somewhat below the radar. Think about the Arizona outrage and all the immigrant bashing that's taken place , and you've got the potential for a hell of a turnout. The word will quietly spread within the community, through the churches, within the vast network of Latino radio stations and more subtly through Univision and the airwaves. I expect that by election day there will be a fury unleashed through the ballot.

Al - I cannot express fully how happy I am that you are back to dole out some common sense! 

I believe we'd be coming out of the Republican National Convention, with polls showing trouble for the Obama campaign. For a few weeks, the narrative was about how fresh new VP-pick Sarah Palin was energizing the Republican base and how Obama had to shake things up.

Then the economic crisis hit and, among other things, knocked some sense into the political world. Now, we don't need any more crisis, but, as we draw closer and closer to election day, people are going to realize what their choices are. And President Obama already knows that, based on his speech in Ohio yesterday. The man's breathing fire, as he should be on the campaign trail. And I think that can go a long way to reminding everyone what's at stake here.

After a few false starts, I am finally going to canvass this weekend! It looks like the weather is fine, and the canvass will be in my neighborhood, which is even finer. And now that the weather is in the seventies, I will be able to stay outside long enough to get something done! All of this activity isn't even acknowledged by anyone at all, let alone the press.

@ CarolDuhart.  I'll acknowledge it.  And I'm pretty sure whoever cut your walking list will, too, once you turn in your results.  The people on your route might acknowledge your work as well.  Many are grateful that we’re out there doing the work that they can’t do.  As for the Press, frankly I don’t want them to acknowledge our work.  I want to remain as under-the-radar as possible.  The longer the Republicans think we’re sitting on our thumbs or cowering in fear, the longer they go without mounting a response.  I want them to feel like they’ve already won.  Overconfidence breeds complacency.

Tien Le & Lucidamente, Thanks for the Plouffe video.  You are both correct.  This is very energizing.  The thing that OFA and Plouffe do beautifully is to convey the idea that donating either time or money, whichever you have the talent and resources to do, is not a waste and that it can make a real difference.  Many political and cause fund raising appeals seem to rely heavily on fear porn.  In my opinion fear porn appeals work only 1 time and for a fairly small donation.  One tends to give not out of any real hope that it'll work but to stave off any personal guilt feelings when the anticipated sky falls.  (Well, at least I did my little bit.)  In contrast, with OFA's frequent appeals focusing on positive possibilities I find myself donating repeatedly. 

Love that phrase, Nancy. Will use it!

I concur with Al:  "Fear Porn!"  Excellent description of how things are.

I have never been offended when Organizing for America has asked for my time or $$.  I either can give or not.  A few months after the 2008 election, I met one of the super volunteers from the campaign.  Her cell phone number was still in my phone.  I worked with her during the VP Debates...Biden supporters on one side of the private runway terminal, Palin supporters on the other.  One of my neighbors was on the other side.  We did not wave.  As Super Volunteer checked me through the grocery line, I asked if she was involved with OFA.  "No way.  I'm sick of them asking me for money."  I said something like:  "You don't have to give.  They will always ask for $$.  We are working for change while we can."  Sigh.

I had the habit of donating to OFA (campaign) for 2 years.  My family is in for the long haul. 

I feel the same way about the Fund for Authentic Journalism.  If I've got it, I give it.  I'm in this Field for a long time to come.

I love your ending thoughts:  One tends to give not out of any real hope that it'll work but to stave off any personal guilt feelings when the anticipated sky falls.  (Well, at least I did my little bit.)  In contrast, with OFA's frequent appeals focusing on positive possibilities I find myself donating repeatedly.             

I'm invested in The Field et al and OFA.  Al and Barack are my US organizers.  

Nancy and other OFA/Field people here:  You are my people.  Lots to do.  Let's go.

Al,

Do the Republicans even have a ground game?  Or is just going to be attack ads and letters to the editor?

Also, are you going to tell the class why Michael Steele will be the scapegoat if the R's don't get the majority?

Thirdly, can you ask your new webmaster to make the text wrap in the comment box? 

Thanks for all you do.