Anatomy of a Mass Rally in the Hills of Western North Carolina

Thanks Al--

I'd attended a few of these events, and always have wondered how the thousands of moving part seemed to work so well at Obama events. 

I've got a little better idea now -- but I'm still amazed.

I put a few ducats in the pot -- wish it could be more!

Norm from CO

I was a volunteer in the Clinton campaign. I did a number of things including help get out crowds for campaign appearances in Portland, Oregon. The logistics of an event in a presidential campaign are incredible. And every volunteer who has close involvement has to have a background check and wear ID provided by the secret service. Among other things I drove in Bill Clinton's motorcade, Gwen Ifill was one of my passengers, as she was just getting known on the national scene. It was an exciting activity, brief and intense, and then back to the phone banking, canvassing, etc.  The van I drove had to be searched and check out by bomb sniffing dogs, enormous security issues, along with police motorcades, traffic control etc. There are lots of background issues, including local politicians and their posturing about who get seen and who doesn't. I had one state co-chair threaten to pull out in the phone call I took if they didn't get more prominent exposure. Needless to say I gasped and passed the telephone to the political director for the state campaign.

Thanks, Al, for pointing out the hard-working staff and volunteers at these events.  I've volunteered at two events where Senator Obama appeared, and they were both mind-bogglingly (is that word?) time-consuming and exhausting.  I can't imagine what the advance team's life must be like.

A giant thank-you to everyone who helped at the rally today... the message Obama gave in the video up above is fantastic, and I only get to see it because of you.

When attending an Obama event the tickets that are filled out with info are used for volunteer recruitment and to gotv. When the event is over, all the data is entered into the system and every single person who attended (that wrote a legible phone number) is called or entered as attending. If they are not in the system as being registered they get a call to make sure they do so, if they are too young to vote they are encouraged to intern. Pretty amazing, how much work immediately after the event for the field organizers. The organization aspect of this campaign is incredible. I never did this kind of thing before, so, I wonder is this whole lot better than Presidential campaigns in the past?

Al and others -- I'm curious as to what you think about the early voting numbers coming out of Georgia.

http://chronicle.augusta.com/stories/100408/met_478220.shtml

Its early days yet -- but black turnout up over 50% since 2004. In fact, blacks making up 33% more of the electorate than they do of the population. Now it may be it's just an example of enthusiasm and organization, but that the numbers are not representative. however, if it is a canary in the coal mine, think what it represents. It would mean Obama sweeping the South.

Excellent time to gain insight like this. For me this race has been and still is so emotionally charged. The freakish complacency I encounter can be at times exhausting. It really gives me a good shot of energy to think about the enormous amount of work going on behind the rallies. It's like gaining new resolve in the final mile of a run.

Just got back from canvassing in Middleburg, Virginia...very, very, wealthy horse country.  Our family's first canvassing foray outside of our Silver Spring, MD, neighborhood.  The Obama Team is SO amazingly organized.  We were called and asked to go to VA for part of this weekend, and when we showed up this morning in Bethesda, MD, they sent us through a rolling introduction and sign-in, and then sent us off an hour or so away to Leesburg, VA.  When we got to Leesburg, some more extremely organized volunteers trained us and sent us off to Middleburg.  It was not quite what we expected....the homes (mansions, outbuildings and grounds) are city blocks (or more) apart.  Most of the folks in our packet were listed as Republicans.  That, and the extreme wealth of the area, led us to assume we would get a lot of doors slammed in our faces.  Not so at all.  No one was hostile, perhaps because it was three generations of our family, from ages 5 to 70.  We had two households who were clearly McCain supporters, but polite.  We had two split households (one split husband/wife, another split parents/adult children).  We had two undecideds...one militantly so (she wasn't registered, and didn't want to be....go figure), the other I think we convinced, or at least made headway.  And all the rest were enthusiastic Obama supporters begging for the ever-elusive yard signs.  If this reflects the rest of deep red, wealthy, horse country Virginia, Obama will turn the state blue.

The folks at the Leesburg Obama office impressed us so much, we are going to be doing our GOTV work on Election day there, rather than in our own, guaranteed Obama neighborhood.  If anyone else in the DC Metro area is looking for a good place to make a difference, go to Leesburg!

I know I'm in the minority in this thought but Georgia has a chance just on pure GOTV, IMHO. There is very little enthusiasm for McCain/Palin and a complete opposite story for Obama. That's true most everywhere this year but I think it is much more extreme in Georgia than similar states that are not solid red or blue. I think the Obama campaign saw it being too much of an uphill fight and there were easier red states to pick off.

The most recent two polls had Obama within striking distance. Insider Advantage had him down by 6 and SUSA had him down by 8 points.  SUSA, in my recent education of polls, has a history of underpolling AA support in the southern states. So, like you, I would love to get Al's take on it as well as an updated reliable poll.

Michael in NYC, I've been doing some voter registration in a county with high African American population. It's amazing how many folks have not only registered, but have taken advantage of Georgia's Absentee in Person voting. I voted the 2nd day of early voting and the line was really long. Also, we're hoping the enormous enthusiasm will also help kick Saxby Chamblis out of the Senate.

With Al's update about Indiana and offense, I just wanted to share briefly my experience today registering voters in sports bars all around Terre Haute. In a few hours of canvassing local watering holes while the Colts were playing, we pulled out nearly 20 new registrations. Most folks are registered it seems, so this number on the last day of registration was pretty good, in my book.  The thing that interested me, though, was the reception.  With Obama tee-shirt and clipboard, the vast vast majority of persons approached were genuinely appreciative of the efforts, even if already registered. Sure, some of these were old-school Republicans who value the democratic process in a patriotic sort of way (as opposed to the newer vintages of vapid and fearful conquistadores of the Republican party), but the majority (again, mostly middle class white men wearing NFL jerseys) were genuinely glad to see an Obama volunteer even at this semi-sacred time. I got more high-fives and thumbs-ups and covert signs of encouragement than I knew what to do with.  All in all, Indiana is, from this entirely unscientific sampling of Colts fans on a day of surprising victory, entirely ripe for the picking. 

Hi Catherine --- yes, Georgia has promise. The most recent polls are close. The Bob Barr candidacy is usually not included in polls. And in general most polls seem to be assuming that the 2008 electorate will look very similar to the 2004 one.

But if these early voting patterns hold out, it will be very different. Obama would only need 15% of the white vote to win Georgia. And if African-Americans turn out at a similar rate across the South, Obama would win not only win FL, VA and NC, but Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina and Louisiana. It would also make solid Obama Nevada, Indiana, Ohio..

 The Organizing of The President ^TM....Al's book in the making?

juggernaut gains momentum and crashes the repugs' party (literally and figuratively) come Nov 4th.

amk

I just got back from another day of registering voters at two rapid rail stations in South Fulton County, right outside Atlanta.  I heard from one of the volunteers entering the VR data that we had registered another 800 voters today by 6pm.  There were many volunteers who hadn't reported in yet.  Tomorrow is our last big push.  The deadline is midnight Monday.  The excitement on the street is unbelievable and palpable.

Last week, I met a middle-aged African-American woman who, unconnected to the Campaign, had registered 565 new voters from the back of her SUV where she sold Obama gear and incense.  She said her goal was 700.  I haven't seen her any more, but it would be hard for me to believe she didn't make it.  She said she went by the Secretary of State's office herself and got the forms and turned them in.  Of course, I'm sure the campaign would've loved to enter the data before she turned it in, but you can't have everything.

Oh yeah.  Hey cousin James Haygood.  As far as I know, my grandfather, Walter Hagood, was born somewhere around Augusta, either in Georgia or South Carolina.  He moved to Allendale County, South Carolina, where he met and married my grandmother, Sarah Villard, and settled on her family's farmland, which my cousin still grows trees on. Cousin Jackie Frazier, a big Obama supporter, also has a small farm in Frogmore, SC, where he markets his produce and is known as "the barefoot farmer." He is one of the few surviving black farmers in that area.

I will ask another of my cousins, sort of a family historian, where Grandpa Walter came from exactly.  I do remember when we were young and traveling in coastal South Carolina, seeing signs for "Hagood's Pecans," but I never knew where they were based or who they were.  We just knew they were white and assumed that their family may have owned our family at some point in the antebellum South.

Mikell Hagood

 I am so glad to hear of yours & all the efforts in Georgia. This is the most exciting time in our history and to be able to share it with all of you... not enough words to express how grateful I am. Is it ok that I got a small chuckle out of the last sentence in your post? We have come along way baby! Yes We Can!

I hope you get a chance to read Sean @ 538 posting tonight about Indiana and the ground game and Birch Bayh's visit to a campaign office. Very good story.  And glad to hear the Colts guys were onboard! If it was anytime before the 4th quarter when they came back from a 17 point deficit to win, that's an even better sign!

Al, I really like the name of that book!

This is essentially exactly what happened when I volunteered for the rally in East Lansing last Thursday. Although I was out there with a clipboard at first, I ended up directing the line across a road the entire time. The national staffer who trained us put a lot of emphasis on keeping the line moving smoothly. This is because they calculate how many metal detectors they'll have, and how long it will take the place to fill up based on that number, and then schedule opening the gates based on that amount of time. If every metal detector isn't being used every second, then there will still be empty space when Obama appears.

It was absolutely amazing to see thousands of people led into the area over a 3 and a half hour time span, and then see the place fill up as soon as Obama took the stage. 

The Obama campaign is going to give a little friendly reminder to America about McCain's allegiances to financiers who defraud America.

http://www.keatingeconomics.com/

Keating Five has just become an issue... John McCain is a fraud.

I attended Obama's speech at the University of Nevada-Reno campus on Tuesday morning. While lined up to enter the rally site, the Quadrangle, many of the locals around me were perplexed why the rally wasn't being held in their arena, which holds about 20,000 people.

But as soon as I entered the Quad, I knew why we were there. At the end of the Quad where the podium was placed was a magnificent brick Victorian building with white wooden porches and railings, festooned with red-white-and-blue bunting, looking like a backdrop from a Disney movie set in turn-of-the-century Americana. There were two camera platforms set up, and there were risers opposite each where selected attendees would fill the frame behind Obama as he spoke.

And the Quad was mostly in shadow from the buildings surrounding it, but as the moment for the rally approached, the sun's movement between two buildings cast a ray of sunshine precisely across the podium, illuminating Obama from behind, making him stand out against the shadow like one touched by God.

My only thought was, damn these Obama folks are good!

Anyone going to watch the release of this documentary at 12 Eastern tonight by the Obama campaign? Wow. The suspense. Don't mess with Barack I think is the message. http://www.keatingeconomics.com/

Note Obama's subtle use of the word "gambling" re McCain and "his operatives" around at 3:09 into this video.

My friends (heh!), Obama is a truly savvy politician, and we're privileged to have him.

I can't wait to elect him in 30 days!!

- it will be 12 noon tomorrow ET. http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/

emails will be sent notifying everyone tonight.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/05/AR2008100502589.html?hpid=topnews

The whammer at the rear-end (sorry for the imagery)

At the Republican National Convention this summer, the family came together to celebrate McCain's triumphant moment. "Everyone," says McCain's old friend and lawyer Bud Day, "was there and jovial."

Everyone except Carol. She declined to join her children and her ex-husband.

It was probably just as well. The buildup to McCain's acceptance speech included an eight-minute video that celebrated his life, work and family. At its conclusion, delegates in the convention hall erupted in applause.

 Carol McCain, the woman who stood beside McCain through triumph and tragedy, was never mentioned.

amk

 @Catherine--sending it far and wide.  Hopin (no g) y'all do the same. Now I know why I registered to become a Democrat again:

Barack Obama's Campaign for Real Change.

Digg it

Edit: @Carol Gaupp, great observation! This comment might before yours?

I'm thinkin' that the timing of this Keating documentary is very interesting - the day before the next debate.  This is going to enrage McCain and it will make it that much harder for him if he was going to try and look Obama in the eye to offset the criticism he received last time for not doing so.  He'll be even more clenched, hunched and growly.

I've got great news from the State of Nevada, Washoe County, where Reno is located, the dems have outregistered the repubs for the first time in a generation or two as of this weekend. Over 1000 of us from Northern California flooded Northern Nevada this weekend, it was awesome! So many of us were there, they had to move the Obama Reno office to a warehouse of a local supporter to stage all of us. The well organized team had the entire state mapped out door by door, neighborhood by neighborhood. Nothing was missed they sent us to every inch of the state that had a door to knock on or a crowd to work for new voters. The group I was with, knocked on every single door in Carson City, NV over this weekend to tell the about early voting and register and canvass those who had maybe been missed the first time. A friend of mine in LA, said they found the same massive crowds of Californians had flooded the Southern part of the state as well. We snuck a peak over at the McCain office in Carson City for example there was only one guy working there on Saturday and it was closed on Sunday. The Carson City, NV office had over 150 California volunteers both days!

Is that doc really connected to the campaign?  Something doesn't look right to me...

it's real. It's on the home page of the barackobama.com website. It's just going to be on the internet to make it viral. The fact that it is released as a documentary is brilliant.

I was there and I have to say that one thing they forgot about was doaling with the people in the line.

There might have been restrooms and water inside the event, but outside there wasn't and those people were standing in the sun for hours.

Something to keep in mind as some people (like myself) came in completely unprepared and had lots of trouble.

When I heard that the Obama campaign might be bringing up the Keating 5 scandal now that McCain's camp had announced (like idiots) that they were going to try to "turn the page" from the economy to smears on Barack, I thought that maybe the Obama team was just firing a warning shot.  That is, don't go there (Rezko, Ayres, Wright) or Keating will get brought back into the spotlight.

Well this "documentary" (and the dedicated site) ain't no warning shot...  Wow.  Bringing out the big guns.  But Plouffe does make a good point in the email I just received that:

"The McCain campaign has tried to avoid talking about the scandal, but with so many parallels to the current crisis, McCain's Keating history is relevant and voters deserve to know the facts -- and see for themselves the pattern of poor judgment by John McCain."

 

Seems a bit risky to me (certainly a riskier move than I've ever seen Obama make in the past year and half--perhaps that's what you were sensing James Haygood?).

I hope it doesn't backfire, but Plouffe and Axelrod have seemed to have almost flawless radar detectors for public and press sentiment.  I imagine they felt that Obama needed to take control of the media narrative for the last month of the campaign and not let McCain and the 527s get any oxygen.

Plus, check out johnmccainrecord.com

Double-wow.

expect McCain to do a Hillary á la ABC-debate and talk about Obama and Ayers and Wright.

the question is: how much respect does McCain wants to retain past Nov4.

McCain needs and likes the "liberals" press these are the people who will write history and the guy is obsessed with history, is he going to let "his" campaign turn him in to a Bill Clinton by Nov4.

Willliam Ayers has posted an open letter to McCain/Rove on Youtube

h/t Jebreport

Has everybody seen the latest Ron 'Racial Arsonist' Fournier piece? Its a blatant attempt to reintroduce race into the conversation by claiming Palin's attacks are racist (they aren't particularly, they're just stupid). Obviously wingnuts are doing the faux outrage thing and blaming Obama for pushing this. Do you have any more tactics for getting him fired? To be honest there might be bipartisan agreement for a letter writing campaign.

Great read.

Achtung : Corporate media warning - may require a login.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/weekinreview/05schwartz.html?_r=1&ei=5070&emc=eta1&oref=login

amk

A good diary on DKos analyzes how Obama is, indeed, playing chess, and how with McCain losing options, it's looking like checkmate.

 

 

I have been a volunteer @ 2 Obama Events (along w/good ol' 84-yo Mom!), and I agree--it is amazing, as well as fun!

People don't realize how important it is how Obama inspires people to be their best!

Last July '07, just an email went out for volunteers for the NAACP Nat'l Convention. RSVPs to the emails were followed up with more emails and phone calls. When we got to Cobo Hall @ 7 a.m., there were hundreds of men, women, and children. The head honcho asked for people to be "team leaders" (you know I was one) and gave them TLs his cell # and marching orders!   Whoever didn't have an O shirt got one.

There were so many of us, the Hillary people complained to security (after giving us dirty looks). The Edwards people had a band; but that wasn't enough to drown us out! It was heart-warming to see the Moms and Dads who pulled their teenagers out of bed at daylight to be a part of history! It was even more heartwarming to see people just walk up to us off the street to ask to be a part of the fun--and register them to vote on the spot!

It was flawless...and this was when Obama was supposed to be a naive newcomer who would be buried by Hillary!

None of the other campaigns did this bottom-up electronic organizing...

BTW: the only Republican who showed up at the NAACP National Convention was Tom Tancredo...everyone else had "scheduling problems"...like fundraisers that same day in nearby Republican counties...

BTW2: all of the *haters* out there think Black People are voting for Barack just because he's Black...NOT! He didn't have majority Black support until Iowa through South Carolina...we support him because he is the BEST candidate who we are so happy and proud just happens to be Black...

ooops, sorry, Al about the caps...trying hard to break that habit!

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

"A Naphalite, who with Deborah, defeated Sisera, the leader of the Canaaanites, and obtained a great victory over him..." B.C. 1296 (See Judges Chapter 4, Verse 6)

from Young's Analytical Concordance of the Bible.

I put this here to remind people (including the trolls on comments on other sites) that "Barack" is a Hebrew name as well as an Arabic name and means "light" or "lightning".

Deborah called on Barak to help her lead the army she needed to defeat invaders in her country...

Our Barack is also a "light" for us and the people of America, who is leading the army of people who want America out of the hands of the neocons and back in the hands of the people...

 

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

The Organizing of the President (tm).  Al, will you please let us know as soon as we can preorder a copy. Will the book launch gatherings be part of the Field Hand Concerts for Change?  Must remember to make sure you get your new guitar in time for tuning.

Wonder if the Boss will be available???????

Yes We Can

Yes We Will.

 

 

http://www.johnmccainrecord.com/

amk

Thanks Al for the excellent report from Asheville. I've heard it's a beautiful place and I personally know five transplants from the communist areas of Northern VA who live there now, and I believe there are many more. It's funny - I was volunteering before Super Tuesday in NoVA with a woman from NC (black in her mid 30s) whose whole family still lived in NC and she was absolutely steadfast in her opinion that there was absolutely no way NC would go blue - I wonder what she thinks now? Your sentence on the chess of the campaign made me laugh out loud:

All this playing of offense has got to be driving the McCain camp bat crazy. While they pull back to defend a shrinking list of swing states, Obama's advancing into enemy territory, where he'll force his rival to spend resources he doesn't have to defend "red" states that are no longer in the bag for the Republican.

Great comments and news from many states (Nevada, Indiana, Georgia). Michael in NYC and others talking about Georgia did you read the story in 538.com today about Georgia?

But this isn't 2004. I would be surprised if black turnout wasn't at least 27-28 percent, and somewhere in the 29-31 percent range is entirely possible. If those numbers are achieved, Georgia is pretty close to being a toss-up.

Of course he does! So in my little crazy head I want to believe (and don't trample on my little fantasy here) that me posting about Georgia on his website and here caused him to write a little story about it this morning. Yesterday I asked him (very nicely of course) to color Georgia light red versus dark red. So he did. What state should I ask for next? Darn. Looking at the map, there aren't that many solid reds left! Oh and... Good Morning!

In my opinion, that Ayers video is an unhelpful mess.  The second half makes some perfectly credible, thoughtful and PERHAPS helpful ('perhaps' because they are philosophical) points which are completely negated by the first half which is a mish-mosh of rambling, sensationalistic, incoherently presented images and text.

Ayers comes across as a loon, and anyone propagating this video, I think, is doing the Obama campaign a deep disservice.  Let them decide how best to address (or MINIMIZE) the discussion of Ayers.  The more he talks or is talked about, the worse off Obama will be.  Undecideds are highly unlikely to give Ayers the benefit of any doubt.

The more I think about it, I think that if Obama had unlimited resources and time, he could turn any state red. For instance, if he could clone himself and spend from now until Election Day in Texas, I think he could have a good chance there. But no amount of time and money would get say New York for McCain. I think, and hope, it's entirely possible for georgia to flip - I just hope there's enough time.

Sunday night I was told by Capitol Hill insiders the polling after Tuesday's debate will determine McCain's next shift in resources. McCain will trim operations in Minnesota this week and may be out of the state by the end of the week.

Obama has opened a solid double digit lead in the Gopher state. Some McCain insiders feel the state is already lost coupled by the fact that Al Franken is now leading Sen. Norm Coleman.

Sources with knowledge of the campaign are telling me this will be a crucial week for McCain. All Minnesota efforts will be reallocated to Ohio, Florida and possibly Virginia.

The McCain camp is now expecting the 527's to attack Obama on character in an attempt to shift the conversation and focus off the economy. One source told me tonight, "We are definitely in need of a game changer."

http://www.bigeddieradio.com/

 

Hitting 9700 mark already. Repugs must be so proud right now.

amk

Albany for Obama sent us to Scranton, PA last weekend. There were at least 300 volunteers there (mostly from out of state). The McCain office around the corner was empty. They did trainings in waves. We canvassed in Wilkes-Barre and Archbald. It was beautiful weather. Our results were good. More people answer the door in PA than in NH (where they're used to being pummelled by canvassers since they're so early in the primaries). I'd say I met 7 Obama voters to 1 McCain. There were also a handful of HIllary holdouts. I knocked on one door of a voter who had moved, but the new resident and her whole family wanted to register to vote. They had never voted before and were very excited. Albany is sending people to NH next weekend, then PA for the next 2, and finally we're going to Ohio for the last weekend. This is the ultimate inoculation. I am so relaxed about the election, getting some good exercise walking up and down hills and seeing the beautiful fall. I highly recommend this!

I agree with Russell. That video is a disaster area. There are barely two coherent thoughts strung together throughout. The visuals are worthless, the text makes no sense. It tells us nothing other than an interview he gave was used against him by someone in the press. Big deal. So what. Who cares? I'm disappointed. I was hoping that maybe this guy had grown up and moved on, but it's clear he's just as stuck iin the 60's as McCain. Pathetic.

here: http://www.mountainx.com/gallery/category/C88/.

Thanks for coming to Asheville!

The advance organizer's name is Paula.

The volunteers did a great job, except for some confusion in the press pen. We were sorely dehydrated for a while!

I just discovered that this post had not been submitted to Digg, so I took care of it.  Digg it now, more people should read this.

"mish-mosh of rambling, sensationalistic, incoherently presented images and text."  Yup, just like the McCain campaign.

I think Bill Ayers writing in 2nd part of video is passionate, inspiring, thoughtful, reflective of a terrifyingly difficult time in US history.  I've sent it to many, many friends and am getting a very positive response from everyone I've sent it to.  Thanks to Anne for calling it to my/our attention, and Joel for the embed making it easier to forward.

Can someone please give me a crash course on how the Electoral College system works. Does one win a state based on the popular vote or do they win county by county – meaning each county is allocated a certain number of EVs, then who ever wins more counties wins the state??

Obama 51 McCain 39 http://www.pollster.com/blogs/va_obama_51_mccain_39_suffolk1.php

Al, I just kicked you another $25.00, hope it helps you stay in the game.

McLame/Palin have crossed the fabled Rubicon, there is no turning back.

They are embarking on a slash-and-burn campaign to stoke racial fear, ignorance, and the always present forces of US white supremacist reaction.

This will not work; it will back-fire, big-time.

The US economy is on it way toward a long depression-era slide, and all McLame/Palin can do is engage character attacks to rile up their nutty, slutty base of delusional rightwingers.

They are attacking Obama's love of country, associating the man with the terrorists that attacked US on 9-11.   McLame has no shame whatsoever.

The gloves are off--but Obama will make intelligent moves that will render McCain impotent.  Viagra will not help this walking-corpse.

Thank Dog that McCain will never get close to the Oval office and that damnable red button, the guy is off his rocker. The Rethuglicans are freaking out, they literally losing it.

I just wish he would even sink further.  No, I will not be happy until Mississippi and Louisiana are turned midnight blue.  (give it another four years)

 

Obama 53 McCain 43

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=00f2d8fb-6a3b-425d-9f27-21df796e8fe5&c=77

Russell and Tien Le:

I found the video helpful.  The basic premise is pretty clear - the Republicans are unrepentant, shameless liars and he isn't a terrorist. It isn't a thing of beauty, but it's not that complicated either. Anyone who sits through it will get a pretty clear message that Ayers is not a terrorist, and that he doesn't believe in blowing people up.  I'm not sure where the harm is.

And it's not just because of the AA vote. I went to vote early today and most of the folks were young white professionals (an Obama crowd). Atlanta and other population centers in GA are "in the tank" for Obama, and might actually overturn the white rural vote this year. I've been canvassing in ATL and from what I've seen and heard indicates that he may actually pull it off.   

His defense attorney in that case decades ago, donchaknow.

His defense attorney is his character witness now ?

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/lawyer_defending_mccain_on_kea.php

This guy is nuts...

amk

Florida is kicking butt in registrations.  I went to drop some off at the Dem HQ here in Panama City and three other people were there dropping them off at the same time.  We've already signed up over 400K in Florida this year...Florida will be blue...I saw a lady in Camo BDU's, I believe she was Air Force, she dropped off a stack of registrations while I was waiting to drop off mine...A military person registering Dems in Panama City...just WOW.

The Center for Media and Democracy (CMD) has just announced the launch of:

 

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Portal:Election_Protection_Wi...

Looks like we are up in two VA polls today. 

 

Survey USA has us up +10  (O53  M43)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=00f2d8fb-6a3b-425d-9f27-21df796e8fe5

 

Suffolk has us up +12 (O51  M39)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Suffolk_Final_Virginia_100608.htm

I helped staff a few events (my resume now includes ADA helper and press corraler from the recent Biden event) but the most thrilling was back in May when Barack returned to Des Moines to claim the pledged delegate majority. The great thing about these events is the consistency at *every* event across the country--the teams, the rules (no running, no shouting is classic!), the top-notch organizers... None of this has changed in over a year as this is what we were seeing here in summer and fall of 07 even when Barack was down in the polls. Organization at its finest--it's a pleasure to watch but it sure is an honor to be a part of.

Excellent video is up, this is the best site, it's about 13 min. long. Nails it!

http://www.barackobama.com/images/keating/keatingeconomics.mov

...showing the O-man up double digits are almost too good to be true. (Survey USA has Obama still winning AA by ONLY 86-14)....McCain's decision to fold up his lawn chair in MI and move to VA, elsewhere came a bit too late, me thinks. RCP's latest polls also lists the Morning Call of Allentown showing Obama up 10+ pts in PA. Wow. Just Wow.

Whoever tends to the msg board, please get rid of that B.S. embedded video. What proof is there that a. Ayers produced it & b. Jed Report linked to it? Total trash, & a disservice.

 

It's the last day to register here in Michigan, and I was on campus registering voters for about an hour and 20 minutes before work. In that short time I registered 15 voters.

The more amazing thing was at the Obama tent that was setup: they were using a large black garbage bag to hold all the filled-out voter reg sheets. Despite all the effort we've put in since school started, it seems like everyone is waiting till the last day to sign up. I wouldn't doubt if they haul in 1,000-2,000 voters on campus just today. Plus there was a Secretary of State "Mobile Registration Unit" on campus registering people as well.

Nowhere does it say Ayers produced the video. Circulate the original letter:

http://billayers.wordpress.com/2008/04/21/clarifying-the-facts-a-letter-to-the-new-york-times-9-15-2001/

 

The country is in an economic crisis and they are looking for a candidate focused on matters of substance. Obama's final pitch to the middle class is a carefully balanced blueprint of pragmatic solutions to the problems that the Republican 'revolution' left us.

Meanwhile, McCain's final argument for his candidacy looks like this:

Is it any wonder why he's down by double digits in Virginia? Virginia!

This race will surely tighten as McCain picks up some of those lingering undecideds, but everyday, my confidence grows.

Yes, I think the letter is well thought out and potentially helpful (to Ayers but not necessarily to Obama), although I truly wonder how many undecideds at this late stage are the type to understand the nuance and be receptive to Ayers self-defense.  I think it would be the medium to forward not the video.  But, seriously, don't you guys think that the majority of the people who haven't 'chosen a side' at this stage are about as low-info/apathetic as can be (and therefore not really going to be paying attention to or believing anything Ayers says)?

I honestly think that trying to defend Ayers is the wrong approach to take.  It's a distraction from the issues of the day and plays right into Republican hands--they want you to pay attention to the shiny terrorists and preachers and real estate developers 'over there' rather than the the economy and the deregulation and the war 'over here'.  Don't get sucked in!

Obama can take care of himself and so can Ayers.  The less these two are mentioned (by ANYONE) in the same place/story/breath the better.

In a nutshell:

when we go to the polls, we are actually voting for "electors", because the U.S. is a "representative" republic, not a direct democracy. (The Founding Fathers didn't think people were intelligent/engaged enough to vote directly.) Electoral College Votes (EV) are allotted proportionately. The College meets on one day only in December to vote based on the November results.

All states but two are "winner take all" in the General Election: Maine and Nebraska. All other states, whoever wins the popular vote in the state wins its EVs. That's why Obama and Palin are in Nebraska this week, fighting over *one* EV!

That's also why a candidate can win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College Vote (are you listening, Al Gore?); and why there can be a tie--in which case the the Senate votes for the President and the House for the Vice-President! There have been elections where the Prez and Veep are from different parties! It is possible, but not probable that we could have an Obama-Palin or McCain-Biden Administration!

But not if everyone votes for Obama-Biden like they're supposed to, and we get our Popular and Electoral vote landslide!

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

House decides President while Senate decides Vice President: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_Two_of_the_United_States_Constituti...

Just in:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/06/democracy_corps_obama_up_by_six_in_ohio.html

Democracy Corps: Obama Up By Six in Ohio

A new Democracy Corps poll in Ohio finds Sen. Barack Obama now leading Sen. John McCain, 49% to 43%.

Obama's lead is built "on an impressive 48% to 35% edge among independent voters. McCain's attempt to seize the mantle of change is falling on deaf ears in Ohio as by 24%, voters in the Buckeye state believe Obama, not McCain, is the reformer and by 18%, Ohioans believe Obama will bring the right kind of change. And in a state where the economy is king, Obama's aggressive positioning of the economic contrast with McCain has produced an 11-point Obama lead on which candidate will do a better job on the economy."

Pam, good EC overview.  However, some of it is backward!

If there is no clear majority in the Electoral College, the House chooses the President and the Senate chooses the Vice President.  This is not the current Congress, but those who are elected on 4 Nov.  Note that these days "no clear majority" means a tie.  Back in the old days when the House actually decided some of these, EVs split among multiple parties and nobody made it to the needed number.

Also, the House vote is by House delegations, not individual members.  Each state gets one vote.  It appears that the Dems will control the most delegations, so Obama should have the edge in the House (not a given, though, as political pressures will definitely be brought to bear).

Unless Hell freezes over, Biden would win the VP slot in the Senate

Pamela, thanks for the edification.  However, I am assuming that your mentioning the possibility of a Obama/Palin legislative branch negotiated deal was in the spirit of Halloween?  Just to scare us into working harding for a solid Obama/Biden win?  LOL

With Palin's 'liberal' interpretation of the constitutional scope of her potential powers as VP in the last debate, I am getting nervous.

If you think that Obama might have had to hire a food-taster with Hillary as VP,  the man would have to wear full body armor with the moose-hunting barbie in the line of secession.  Scary indeed.

 

Obama 50 (+3) McCain 44(-1)

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/10/obama-expands-nc-lead.html

I thought I had it backwards...that's what I get for sneaking over to the Field when I'm on deadline with a client...

Let's just get that landslide for O!

 

Or, I could just morph in McCain and say it's not my fault, I was an English teacher for 30 years...

Or, I could morph into Palin and say: voters have to go to college?

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Damn.  First the +10 and +12 VA polls today, now a PPP poll with Obama +6 in NC.  Obama moves several points up once Al shows up in NC?  Coincidence?  I think not!

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/another_poll_fin...

PPP -- a 6 point lead makes Barack a near-favorite to win North Carolina. And Gallup Daily is back up to a 8 margin with Barack at 50.

I'm glad to see the negative reactions to that "Ayers" video here - Joel had this part right: "Anyone who sits through it..." since I only made it about 30 seconds before I could see that even if there was any good info in it, the first 30 seconds lost me.  As an editor I can say to its producers with authority, "Step away from the editing software..."

the conventional wisdom is that McCain does well in town hall meetings, and that may be true. But i think that if Obama simply engages with the audience, asks them a few questions ("are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?"), he will come across as warm and caring. that will allow his much stronger economic message to couple with his connection to real people and put this race out of reach.

Florida Obama 52 Mccain 45 Colorado Obama 51 Mccain 45 Missouri Obama 50 Mccain 47 Virginia Obama 50 Mccain 48 Ohio Mccain 48 Obama 47

I know the BigMedia likes to push that theme, but in any clip I've ever seen of McCain, he's horrendous in the townhalls.  I'd say even worse than in his regular speeches.

He only has supporters at his events, and he can't even answer the slightest "tough" question.  He also becomes Sir-Gaffe-Alot when he tries get all folksy with the crowd.

Not to get complacent or anything, since every point Obama moves up it'll help the Dems in Congressional races, and also I expect some shenanigans from the Repubs later this month, but Obama is going to completely dominate any townhall "debate."

No matter how hard Brokaw tries to "keep it even," tomorrow should be a fun one to watch for Obama supporters.

The conventional wisdom ignores that McCains townhalls tend to be carefully vetted endeavours. He does well, when unquestioning supporters question him. Obama does well with unvetted questioners actually asking real questions. Since this debate questioners are randomly chosen, there should be some tough questions for McCain - I do not think he will handle them well.

On the other hand, the Keating Economics video produced by the campaign is totally first class... Worth watching just to see how it's done.

Obama 53 McCain 40 http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a8255cdc-82a4-4a10-8cf...

The most interesting aspect of this new Keating Five documentary is that they've been sitting on this for a while and only now decided to use it when they're already at their highest. They didn't panic and use it a few weeks ago when McCain had the national advantage. Their resolve continues to mesmerize. 

McCain, Obama deal puts limits on "town hall" debate

http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2008/10/mccain_obama_deal_puts_limits.ht...

Tuesday's match-up at Belmont University in Nashville, Tenn., will be moderated by NBC's Tom Brokaw, with the questions to be culled from a group of 100 to 150 uncommitted likely voters in the audience and another one-third to come via the Internet. The Gallup Organization -- as in past debates like this -- has the job of making sure the questioners reflect the demographic makeup of the nation.

Brokaw selects the questions to ask from written queries submitted prior to the debate, according to the "contract."

An audience member will not be allowed to switch questions. Under the deal, the moderator may not ask followups or make comments. The person who asks the question will not be allowed a follow-up either, and his or her microphone will be turned off after the question is read. A camera shot will only be shown of the person asking -- not reacting.

While there will be director's chairs (with backs and foot rests), McCain and Obama will be allowed to stand -- but they can't roam past their "designated area" to be marked on the stage. McCain and Obama are not supposed to ask each other direct questions.

As in all the debates, the contenders cannot bring in notes, though they can take them once at the lectern.

**Sarah Palin seemed to be looking at notes several times during her debate with Joe Biden. Each candidate is allowed to "take notes during the debate on the size, color and type of blank paper that each prefers."

-------

Seriously, Palin didn't have prepared written notes on her lectern?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/06/mccain-does-nothing-as-cr_n_132...

 

More than the non-response from the distinguished Senator from Arizona to someone labeling his opponent a "terrorist"....the whole "Who is Barack Obama" thing coming directly out of the candidate's mouth is just terrifying to me.  I've seen the ads they have up now asking the same rhetorical question, but to make it a frickin' speech by the candidate himself?!?!  It scares me.  Not in a CL, election-implication kind of way but as a human alive in this country.  That someone seeking the highest office feels free to do this to a fellow American and fellow Senator?!?!?!  To egg on prejudice and intolerance, and to what end?  Can you imagine anyone else being able to get away with this under any other circumstances?  If Obama had given a stump speech/town hall all about "How well do you or does anyone REALLY know Hillary Clinton?"  Terrible, disgusting crap.  I hope Obama turns to McCain tomorrow night and flat out says, "Do you honestly believe that a fellow Senator and American "pals around with terrorists"?  Do you think I'm a terrorist?" and make McCain be decent for a nanosecond.  Sorry.  Done ranting now.  And I know.  It'll only get worse before Nov. 4th.  sigh.

Hey Melissa, Are you just giving us the good ones? lol. Just don't be posting any Wyoming polls here or we'll suffer whiplash.

I just watched this and remember those events back then all too well. I was a young mortgage underwriter down in Texas at the time and saw the whole S&L crisis firsthand.   I remember thinking it was hard to believe a POW could end up in this kind of mess and I think his POW status bought him that reprimand versus losing his Senate seat.

I guess the real point of the documentary is not that he didn't have good judgment then BUT that he continues down the same high risk gambling path to this very day.

 @Jason Young - excellent point about the Obama team holding the ammo until now - not using it when they were down in the polls after the RNC.

The comment up-thread about the long lines at the Asheville event is a reminder that many states are going to have long lines at the polls on election day. So those of you who are organizing the GOTV effort - especially in swing states - consider handing out water and food on voting day to keep voters energized and staying in line.  Maybe dedicate some people to this at every polling location.  

The relative "success" of the Repub party the last few decades, at least in terms of winning elections, has been dependent upon controlling the dominate media narratives.  Lush Limpbaugh, Pox Newz, Tom Brokaw, the AP, etc. have been instrumental in helping with this.  That's why we have so many people voting against their own self interests without them realizing it.

Now, it appears they're doing it all the way down to "debates" now.  The recent VP debate was a good example, and now these "rules" that make tomorrow's debate almost pointless is another.  Debates are now just forum to allow a Repub to spew talking points to a large audience.

They know if Paylin or McInsane had to actually DEBATE Biden and Obama, it would be over.

The owners of BigMedia are happy to play along.

And they're still holding the Phil Gramm "nation of whiners" card. This has not really been used yet by the campaign in any national way (an ad or national interview). Just watched the Keating video and I thought the two or three minutes just at the end were particularly strong (including video from McCain in March 2008 calling for more deregulation, and the whole Gramm-McCain link). Those clips could be cut to make a very effective 30 or 60 second spot, and I'm betting it probably will in a week or so.

Did this air widely? Have an effect?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUOfaIyv4Bs

He nails McCain on his anti-choice votes from the 1990s:

http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/John_McCain_s_Domestic_Terrorism_Probl...

According to the AP very few took advantage of registering to vote and immediately casting a ballot. Altogether only 3,000 in the four largest counties have done so. Here is the link:

 

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gmJpgsrR27lwSUQ24_WSSrU0W-JwD93L8H1O0

Yes, we're seeing the logical conclusion of McCain's lifelong anger, self-absorption, and recklessness.  He's clearly decided to sacrifice his dignity and reputation, and to make the country pay the price of witnessing this disgusting level of campaign behavior.  We're in for an ugly month, without a doubt. 

Palin's attack on Obama as "meticulous" (sic) and then regretfully asks why Wright 3.0 is off the table.

I can't believe in the mid of an economic meltdown of 1929' s proportion, this kinda crap is being promoted.

amk

Pam and everyone who contributed to my education, I thank you!

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jl4RIfcVYSklHSEj1aw8kRbQnW8QD93LC03G0

 

Obama will be in Indianapolis Indiana on wednesday.

He is doing a two day bus tour of Ohio starting thursday. Obama will speak at rallies in Dayton, Cincinnati and Portsmouth on Thursday

Catherine - worry not, you won't see me ever posting Wyoming polls. lol It is all about the battleground states.