Debate Live Blog: Barack, Paper, Scissors

By Al Giordano

The Grand Ole Opry will still be standing in Nashville, Tennessee, at 10:30 p.m. ET, but it remains to be seen what will become of the Grand Old Party.

That map you see above wasn't made by me. It's how Karl Rove sees the presidential contest right now: 273 Electoral Votes for Obama (270 needed to win), 163 for McCain and 102 "toss up" points yet to be grabbed.

And it's pretty much how I see the race, too, except that I'm ready to leap a step ahead of Rove and place Virginia's 13 EV's firmly into the blue column, bringing Obama up to 286.

The efforts by McCain (and especially through his running mate) to "turn the page on talking about the economy" and bring out the guilt-by-association smears - starting with Ayers - may satisfy the growing legion of Chicken Littles on the right wing (don't they sound a lot like some friends on our side of the aisle just a few weeks ago?), but McCain's attack strategy is going to fail miserably, and here's why.

I call it: Barack, paper, scissors.

Remember that simple game kids play with hand signs? Scissors cut paper, rock breaks scissors and paper supposedly cuts rock (that part I never quite figured out, but, whatever).

The McCain-Palin shop, having already used up too many "Hail Mary" passes, has gone "Hail Lucifer" as a strategy: to try and frighten members of the public about Obama.

And so they rolled out the Ayers smear (soon to be followed by Wright and anything else they might have to throw).

And the Obama campaign had a 13 minute newsreel fired up about McCain's association with Charles Keating and the Keating Five Savings and Loan Scandal - and a keatingeconomics.com website all prepped and ready to go. (I don't buy the Kabuki that had the documentary coming out a day after the "trailer" as if they were rushing to get it produced in a hurry: nope, that thing has been in the can and ready to go for weeks now already, as is the next one that nobody has heard of yet).

So, like in "rock, paper, scissors," the McCain camp cries "Barack," the Obama campaign responds with "McCain," the attacks neutralize each other and annoy the public to cry out, "Economy!"

Obama, McCain, Economy. Obama, McCain, Economy... so on and so forth.

For the next 28 days, every time McCain tries to make Obama the issue, the Obama camp will throw an equal and opposite attack back in McCain's face (I'll match your "Wright" and raise you a "Hagee"), the public will yell "get back on the issues, chumps," and we'll be back at "Economy."

I really don't think that McCain is going to try and "go there" into the personal attacks and guilt-by-association charges tonight during the debate, despite all his tough talk about what he might do. There's a room full of supposedly "undecided" voters (where Frank Newport of Gallup - the man responsible for picking these human props - finds them at this late date, is a mystery to me) who will groan aloud if either guy gets personal on the other a handful of minutes from now.

And so I don't know if there's much chance for any "game changers" or even "momentum changers" tonight other than a candidate screwing it up by getting all nasty and desperate in full public view.

And I think we all know which candidate much less likely to do that than the other: the one that's winning.

Anyway, make your predictions and lay down your bets, and down a drink every time you hear the words "my friends," and you'll be out cold, blissfully able to ignore the spin, by 10:30!

(But set your alarms for 11:30 ET, because Nate Silver's going to be on The Colbert Report.)

I'll be adding my thoughts - and reading yours - throughout the ninety minute debate, which begins twenty minutes from now.

Update 9:10 p.m.: The first question, "How are you going to bail out the people?" couldn't have been better for Obama had it been planted. The CNN people-meter went way up top for his reply. McCain's opening remarks also scored way high but as soon as he showed some nervousness - tripping on a word or two - they mysteriously went down. That has to do less with what he was saying than with - I think - the growing sense that he's not confident or steady enough.

9:14 p.m.: "Second verse, same as the first!" The second audience question was simply a rephrasing of the first one: Bailout? What are you gonna do for us? McCain gets nasty at Obama over his "cronies" and the people meter dips into the negative zone. Interestingly, it dips deeper among men than among women.

9:16 p.m.: Those watching the CNN people meter can see that when Obama mentions McCain at all - even with a mild critique - his favorability goes down. As soon as he's back on the economic issues, it goes back up. He should ignore the old man for the rest of the debate. And, in a way, that's the harsher critique: that he's become irrelevant.

9:30 p.m.: For those of you that care about the facts and fact-checking, the Obama campaign is now posting the same fact-check statements it sends to us in the media online for everyone to read:

http://therecord.barackobama.com/?page_id=1465

9:36 p.m.: First Read political reporter Adam Aignor-Treworgy makes an interesting observation:

Those who travel regularly with McCain know that there is a hierarchy to McCain's nicknames. People who he calls a "little jerk," are those he likes. 'My friends,' plural is also a sign of generic affection, but a singular 'my friend' only comes out when McCain's getting frustrated. 

During that last answer on the housing market, McCain appeared to turn to Obama, saying, "My friend, I'd like to you to see the letter that I wrote warning about this situation."

10:34 p.m.: Cnn.com shows a different people-meter breakout than CNN on TV. In the closing statements, the line representing Independent voters was at the exact same level as that of Democrats for both Obama and McCain's closing statements. There's no question that Obama comes out of this debate the winner. Although even a draw would have meant a win for him, I think he gained ground by increasing the "comfort factor" among voters still trying to figure him out. McCain was meh, at best. And I'll bet a bottom dollar that the overnight polls back up my sense of that.

10:42 p.m.: Bill Bennett on CNN: "As much as I admire John McCain, I don't think his campaign lives up to the man... He needed a clear win tonight and he didn't get it."

10:45 p.m.: On Fox News, Frank Luntz's focus group thought Obama won the debate and Luntz thought "he won it on health care." Then he tried to spin that "McCain won the debate about economy. How many of you think that?" and six people out of various dozens raised there hands, and he pulled the classic Fox maneuver, claiming, "about half thought John McCain won on economy." Oh, it's going to be fun to watch the Fox spin on this disaster!

10:49 p.m.: And let me crow for a moment! As predicted here, McCain didn't bring up Ayers or any other personal negative tonight. All that talk about "taking off the gloves" was about as credible as "suspending my campaign."

10:51 p.m.: You heard it here, first: Watch the poll numbers now in West Virginia, Arkansas and Arizona. I'll also be watching Ohio very closely.

11:09 p.m.: The data reviews are starting to come in. Who won? CBS poll of undecided voters:

Obama: 39 percent

McCain: 27

Draw: 35

When you're ahead, those pronouncing a draw are going to stay where they were.