Debate Live Blog: Barack, Paper, Scissors

By Al Giordano

The Grand Ole Opry will still be standing in Nashville, Tennessee, at 10:30 p.m. ET, but it remains to be seen what will become of the Grand Old Party.

That map you see above wasn't made by me. It's how Karl Rove sees the presidential contest right now: 273 Electoral Votes for Obama (270 needed to win), 163 for McCain and 102 "toss up" points yet to be grabbed.

And it's pretty much how I see the race, too, except that I'm ready to leap a step ahead of Rove and place Virginia's 13 EV's firmly into the blue column, bringing Obama up to 286.

The efforts by McCain (and especially through his running mate) to "turn the page on talking about the economy" and bring out the guilt-by-association smears - starting with Ayers - may satisfy the growing legion of Chicken Littles on the right wing (don't they sound a lot like some friends on our side of the aisle just a few weeks ago?), but McCain's attack strategy is going to fail miserably, and here's why.

I call it: Barack, paper, scissors.

Remember that simple game kids play with hand signs? Scissors cut paper, rock breaks scissors and paper supposedly cuts rock (that part I never quite figured out, but, whatever).

The McCain-Palin shop, having already used up too many "Hail Mary" passes, has gone "Hail Lucifer" as a strategy: to try and frighten members of the public about Obama.

And so they rolled out the Ayers smear (soon to be followed by Wright and anything else they might have to throw).

And the Obama campaign had a 13 minute newsreel fired up about McCain's association with Charles Keating and the Keating Five Savings and Loan Scandal - and a keatingeconomics.com website all prepped and ready to go. (I don't buy the Kabuki that had the documentary coming out a day after the "trailer" as if they were rushing to get it produced in a hurry: nope, that thing has been in the can and ready to go for weeks now already, as is the next one that nobody has heard of yet).

So, like in "rock, paper, scissors," the McCain camp cries "Barack," the Obama campaign responds with "McCain," the attacks neutralize each other and annoy the public to cry out, "Economy!"

Obama, McCain, Economy. Obama, McCain, Economy... so on and so forth.

For the next 28 days, every time McCain tries to make Obama the issue, the Obama camp will throw an equal and opposite attack back in McCain's face (I'll match your "Wright" and raise you a "Hagee"), the public will yell "get back on the issues, chumps," and we'll be back at "Economy."

I really don't think that McCain is going to try and "go there" into the personal attacks and guilt-by-association charges tonight during the debate, despite all his tough talk about what he might do. There's a room full of supposedly "undecided" voters (where Frank Newport of Gallup - the man responsible for picking these human props - finds them at this late date, is a mystery to me) who will groan aloud if either guy gets personal on the other a handful of minutes from now.

And so I don't know if there's much chance for any "game changers" or even "momentum changers" tonight other than a candidate screwing it up by getting all nasty and desperate in full public view.

And I think we all know which candidate much less likely to do that than the other: the one that's winning.

Anyway, make your predictions and lay down your bets, and down a drink every time you hear the words "my friends," and you'll be out cold, blissfully able to ignore the spin, by 10:30!

(But set your alarms for 11:30 ET, because Nate Silver's going to be on The Colbert Report.)

I'll be adding my thoughts - and reading yours - throughout the ninety minute debate, which begins twenty minutes from now.

Update 9:10 p.m.: The first question, "How are you going to bail out the people?" couldn't have been better for Obama had it been planted. The CNN people-meter went way up top for his reply. McCain's opening remarks also scored way high but as soon as he showed some nervousness - tripping on a word or two - they mysteriously went down. That has to do less with what he was saying than with - I think - the growing sense that he's not confident or steady enough.

9:14 p.m.: "Second verse, same as the first!" The second audience question was simply a rephrasing of the first one: Bailout? What are you gonna do for us? McCain gets nasty at Obama over his "cronies" and the people meter dips into the negative zone. Interestingly, it dips deeper among men than among women.

9:16 p.m.: Those watching the CNN people meter can see that when Obama mentions McCain at all - even with a mild critique - his favorability goes down. As soon as he's back on the economic issues, it goes back up. He should ignore the old man for the rest of the debate. And, in a way, that's the harsher critique: that he's become irrelevant.

9:30 p.m.: For those of you that care about the facts and fact-checking, the Obama campaign is now posting the same fact-check statements it sends to us in the media online for everyone to read:

http://therecord.barackobama.com/?page_id=1465

9:36 p.m.: First Read political reporter Adam Aignor-Treworgy makes an interesting observation:

Those who travel regularly with McCain know that there is a hierarchy to McCain's nicknames. People who he calls a "little jerk," are those he likes. 'My friends,' plural is also a sign of generic affection, but a singular 'my friend' only comes out when McCain's getting frustrated. 

During that last answer on the housing market, McCain appeared to turn to Obama, saying, "My friend, I'd like to you to see the letter that I wrote warning about this situation."

10:34 p.m.: Cnn.com shows a different people-meter breakout than CNN on TV. In the closing statements, the line representing Independent voters was at the exact same level as that of Democrats for both Obama and McCain's closing statements. There's no question that Obama comes out of this debate the winner. Although even a draw would have meant a win for him, I think he gained ground by increasing the "comfort factor" among voters still trying to figure him out. McCain was meh, at best. And I'll bet a bottom dollar that the overnight polls back up my sense of that.

10:42 p.m.: Bill Bennett on CNN: "As much as I admire John McCain, I don't think his campaign lives up to the man... He needed a clear win tonight and he didn't get it."

10:45 p.m.: On Fox News, Frank Luntz's focus group thought Obama won the debate and Luntz thought "he won it on health care." Then he tried to spin that "McCain won the debate about economy. How many of you think that?" and six people out of various dozens raised there hands, and he pulled the classic Fox maneuver, claiming, "about half thought John McCain won on economy." Oh, it's going to be fun to watch the Fox spin on this disaster!

10:49 p.m.: And let me crow for a moment! As predicted here, McCain didn't bring up Ayers or any other personal negative tonight. All that talk about "taking off the gloves" was about as credible as "suspending my campaign."

10:51 p.m.: You heard it here, first: Watch the poll numbers now in West Virginia, Arkansas and Arizona. I'll also be watching Ohio very closely.

11:09 p.m.: The data reviews are starting to come in. Who won? CBS poll of undecided voters:

Obama: 39 percent

McCain: 27

Draw: 35

When you're ahead, those pronouncing a draw are going to stay where they were.

 

Comments

Paper

COVERS rock, silly, not "cuts rock".  :-P

he won't be able to help himself

McCain will bring up the Ayers stuff, and more, he won't be able to help himself.  Probably in the second half.

(and paper *covers* rock)  ;)

I'd love for Obama to talk about

some personal anecdotes in his responses. He needs to open up a little. He's such an engaging person that I think personal aneccotes can go a long way in explaining his views to people. For example, on guns, I remember a quote I read somewhere in which he was discussing the struggle between the right to bear arms and the need for some controls. Living in Chicago, he understood the dangers of guns and the need for controls. But then he spoke of driving across some state like Wyoming with Michelle and seeing how far apart all the houses were from each other. Michelle said something like "I can understand why someone living out here would want a gun for protection." Just a little personal anecdote like that could let people know that he "understands", even if he may disagree somewhat on the issue. I wish he would do more of that and the town hall is the perfect forum.

joining the chorus

It was always "paper covers rock" the way we played rock paper scissors growing up.

McCain +8% in Arizona ?

Compared with other "red state" percentages I find the +8% in Arizona (like Georgia) interesting... since it is McCain's home state?  Not as strong a lead as I would have thought?

@ Lisa

Way to catch that error!  I hope you're signed up as a poll watcher!

My friends, times 2

Drink up!  My friends, times 2

the stage and camera angles

the stage and camera angles are weird. Didn't like how they have to put their backs to some of the audience. McCain's contradicting palin. He seems nervous.

Is McCain's voice quivering ?

amk

My Friends

I practically finished an entire beer with the first question! It's going to be a long night, my friends!

Oh No He Di'n't!

Bring up suspending campaign and Freddie and Fannie!

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

definitely quivering in the beginning

Fact checkers are going to have their hands full with this fannie mae business McCain can't hide the anger

cronies. wow. McCain, god bless him, is projectin

McCain said that it's Obama's cronies at freddie and fannie mae.

da noive of it!

Rick Davis!

hope that comes up again!

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

pick pick pick the scab

Obama keeps dinging on McCain in his comments.  Not sure the audience likes it.  He may be trying to poke McCain into going negative.

Wasn't it

mentioned today that banks will be working with homeowners (especially former Countrywide) to reduce their payments for awhile?

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

offtopic. about tee vees

No TV at home. So I came to my boyfriend's house. He'll be here around 35 mins after the hour. But his tee vee system is so cotton pickin' complex that I couldn't get the signal to the video screen. grrrrrrr. (it IS tivoing). So am listening to NPR and watching the cspan live feed.

Breaking: Grumpy comes out

against cronyism.  What is it, 170 lobbyists running his campaign?

Where are the "G's"?

Palin has everyone droppin' those last letters!  Yeech!

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

@Carol

O has to rebut McC's lies!

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Obama's a good closer

There's a nice ramp when Obama speaks, by the end of each question, he's got both men and women's satisfaction levels with him are pretty much equally high. McCain's seems to be a bit more erratic.

And the question is?

going around the question...me, me, me!

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Is it just me

Or is McCain invading the space of the questioning person?

Why is Mccain walking very close to the questioner ?

It is so intimidating.

amk

I love

the state-of-the-art system at the Detroit Science Center...great for hands-on science ed!

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Memo to John Mc Cain:

You're not my friend.

Is someone keeping count of

1. I know how to do it's

2. My frienzzzz's

amk

I have 5

MF's..."My friends..."  tee-hee

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

also, AMK....

"I've taken on the..."

"I know how to do this"

But he doesn't offer any reason why we should believe him. And is it just me or is he having trouble talking? Missing words, sounds angry.

Friendzzzzz

Is Al really having a drink for EVERY 'friendzzz'????  Oh, my...

yes! Obama. Gets. It. The

yes! Obama. Gets. It. The question was about personal sacrifice. People do want to contribute. I was hoping he would bring up 9-11. McCain totally missed it.

is this the "drinking game" shout out?

the wall street got drunk, america got drunk, etc.

Take 2 sips, at least. ;)

Foreign affairs

The audience ticker shows that every time either of them says anything to the effect that we should not 'send money' overseas, that we should not send jobs overseas, that we need to stop owing money to other countries...

Whoever says Herbert Hoover

Whoever says Herbert Hoover first is it.

 

Obama brings up hatchet and scalpel again

about spending cuts and both the worm lines hit orgasm.

amk

ol' flat line mccain

funny to see how mccain's responses are flatlining on cnn.

Look at Obama

looking at McCain say how he will raise taxes. Oh my he is going to the $5000 to buy insurance.

Did you see that look?

McC..looked at O like "Gotcha!"

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Brokaw's

going to let McCain lie till he's blue in the face.

Al, McCain has clearly

Al, McCain has clearly decided that tax cuts is the one point to hammer home throughout this debate. The blue and yellow CNN dials seem singularly unimpressed with this, and it reminds me of comments to the tune of "what's the point of a tax cut if my home is worth 20% less, and everything costs more".

 

Has the McCain campaign seriously misjudged the electoral mood on this?

 

thought he said

he was going to answer the question...i haven't heard a real answer again...more commissions?

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

commission, commission

Man, if McCain wins the election, I want to work on commission because that's how he addresses everything. Blue ribbon commissions for economy. Commission for medicare. mish commission mash

The best technology money can buy?

This is incredible--the feed cuts out every minute or two during a PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE?

On a lighter note--every time McCain slimes Obama the ticker drops.

8 MFs!

Geez...

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Oh crap.

I have done it.

I have reached across the aisle

My frendzzz, I know how to do it . Look at me, me, me..

This man's hubris is staggering.

Stupid hehs, hehs,

And, Why is his voice so dramatic ?

amk

Repeating himself

McCain is repeating the 94 times thing.  That was in the last debate.  He doesn't have new ideas?

@Pam

Regarding the 'Gotcha!' look, yeah, I saw that.  It came across to me as childish and unprofessional.

Climate Change

Sarah doesn't believe in it!

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Obama's attacks

Al, you wrote:

 

"Those watching the CNN people meter can see that when Obama mentions McCain at all - even with a mild critique - his favorability goes down. As soon as he's back on the economic issues, it goes back up. He should ignore the old man for the rest of the debate. And, in a way, that's the harsher critique: that he's become irrelevant."

If I might respectfully disagree with you, I think that Obama's trying to provoke McCain into attacking, because while Obama seems to take a hit, McCain seems to take worse hits when he attacks (which also seems to play into the perception that his campaign has gone pretty negative).

McCain sounds so fake...

... talking about how he's gonna nuke the environment.

I like this answer...

Opportunity instead of a challenge...

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Just a science note, but

Just a science note, but there is no science I'm aware of that allows for the mass "reprocessing" of spent fuel rods from a nuclear reactor -- unless you want to make plutonium for nuclear bombs or something. That's why they are piled up in pools and led storage containers all around our existing plants -- and why they want to dump the stuff in Nevada or on a Native American reservation if they can get away with it.

I hope someone with a masters degree in science looks into that ....

Tom Brokaw is

such an asshole.  Sorry, but someone had to say it.

Yucca

Bill...hope that comes out...

9 MFs...

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Oops

10 MFs...

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

""That one"

You know who voted against it--"that one"--yikes!

I hope O brings up McCain's history supporting ss privatization

I wish i could see the CNN people meter. McCain seems angry & condescending. Eager to attack, when Barack's talking. Barack seems presidential to me. Mccain seems awfully chummy with that member of the mainstream media Hilarious when mccain said HE'd answer the question.

Selling

McCain is now sounding as if he's desperately trying to sell an old Ford Maverick.

Health Insurance

Our premiums increased $100/month and our prescriptions went from $10 to $40 in the same month...

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

"That one"

WTF is that Mc.

DId I miss it?

Tom asked if McCain would support a Manhatten project for energy and did not give Obama a chance to respond?

My daughter

is ill, used up her insurance in three months and we are paying $1500/month for her MRIs etc.

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

O didn't mention

the bait-and-switch McC insurance plan...he thinks emergency room is insurance...

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

@Dan

I heard "that one"...

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

The origin of my friends?

What is with this my friend business? Is it a GOP thing or just McCain's style? Not being American and following the US elections only this time, I have been a bit in the loss about

Credit Cards in Delaware

say it ain't so, Joe!

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Dan & Anne

Exactly, WTF ? And Tom Brokenjaw babbles about time only when Obama talks. What a tool ?

amk

our first female president

look at both the tenor and the dials. our first feminine identifying president ain't hillary hah.

Maxing out on insurance

O is, that is.  Women just hit 10 for the duration of O's insurance discourse.

Eleven

MFs...My Friends

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Hey John

the question was about peace -- not war

And now

Tom asks a different question that CNN is screening and did not give Obama the chance to respons to our ability to be peace makers. Grrrrr.

Well, I'm wrong and right on

Well, I'm wrong and right on the reprocessing. Should know better to rely on past knowledge. Europe does reprocess spent fuel rods, but the US prohibits it due to concerns over potential nuclear proliferation. There is an effort to change that.

However, the reprocessing does not eliminate all the waste and leaves behind high-level radioactive waste byproduct that still has to be dealt with -- and apparently does create new security and cost issues. Sorry, I just remember the horror stories of the first nuke plant near the Mississippi in Wis., built in the 50s, and abadoned, with the reactor core still onsite, or other stories of radiative water discharges into waterways (where plants are usually built) and even in one case into the water system of the plant itself so that it showed up in the drinking water.

And those weird-looking fish I caught downstream. I figured if the radiation didn't get them, the mercury in their systems would get me. Those were the days.

Going well

Brokaw has been a bit of a jerk, but it seems like the debate is going well for Obama.  McCain is getting 'ding'd on several blogs for the 'that one' comment, which was very disrespectful.  The folks being monitored on CNN are responding better to Obama, imo.

Here we go...

surge schmurge...

13 MFs!

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

not acting diminishes us.

not acting diminishes us. Barack talked positively about his doctrine. I hope someone asks mccain what victory means. A cool hand is required and you're not it john.

A cool hand

teeeee, heeee...A cool hand at the tiller!  he must be speaking of Obama.  Could NOT be talking about himself!!!

 

Ask the vets...

if McC thinks of them...

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

"We need a cool

"We need a cool hand..."

Like you, Senator McCain? Really? You think you're the cool hand?

@Bill

Correct. There used to be protests when the Pacific Sandpiper, the ship that carries these fuel rods, passes through the Panama Canal.

I wish he would have

I wish he would have answered the question first, then explained. What did audience dials do on this Pakistan issue?

That's not what he said...

Geez...

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

heros?

Ok, how many heros has McCain referred to just in the last hour?  I heard two, but I might have missed one.  (Reagan and Teddy R).

Didn't O just say...

everything that McC is saying what O just say?

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Will McCain mention

that one of those Afgani freedom fighters we funded was Osama bin Laden.

You're doin' a great job, Tom - Ouch.

amk

Good One!

caught McC laughing!

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Ohh, this promises to get

Ohh, this promises to get feisty from here.

 

 

Not a hero, but

McCain also referenced Herbert Hoover. Honestly, I don't get it. Why is he always making reference to really old presidents? Politically, that doesn't seem wise for someone McCain's age because then we start wondering if he is actually old enough to have been around in the time of Herbert Hoover.

Two la la land moments

Two la la land moments provided by mccain We need a calm hand at the tiller. We don't have time for on the job training.

Al, I have a different observation

Strangely, the "diallers" seem to love it when Obama attacks McCain but hate the reverse.

The point is

you don't joke about Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran...if you know how to get him...why don't you tell us NOW?

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Now, the economy is

Now, the economy is imploding, and we are back to Tom forcing the debate back to foreign policy. Hmmm. But I don't think this is a game changer in anyway, just minutes ticking off the debate clock.

@Dan...so true

McC won't say that, however...

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Excuse me

Telegraphing -- they almost are saying the same thing. We will get Ben Laden. What is McCain's point?

Was watching CNN on TV

Watched the first part on CNN and my observation is that when O-man spoke, generally there were no close ups of McInsane's reactions - just a few brief long shot views.  When McShame was speaking, there were relatively long close ups shots of O-man.  Of course the beauty of it was that O-man's countenance was the same - a smile and relaxed body language.

Tom B. and company can try and give him all the advantages they want but McInsane is a lost cause.  Nothing can help him now.

 

I acted repsonsibly through out my military career ???

You crashed mutliple planes, senator...

And yeah, I forgot...

I know how to get Bin Laden, My frenzzzz. I will get him, frenzzz.

amk

Well played

I'm addicted to the CNN ticker.  I wish they had it for every program I watch so I wouldn't have to pay attention to the substance.

Because the ticker supports the idea that McCain's literally out of touch.  He's supposed to be the foreign policy guy--and my friend the audience graph tells me noone is buying it.

And the wheels have come off the debate rules.  There weren't supposed to be rebuttals or followups, and here we are, with the debaters running all over Brokaw.  I'm glad for it, as Brokaw will just push his own agenda.

i know the dials may not show it...

well they did kind of but obama taking that over was quite presidential on the topic and terms taht aren't his home turf. we'll played.

The CinC

sets the tone, not the General...

McC says O is correct?  Anyone checked the temp in Hell?

Surge schmurge

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

surge

CNN dialers don't like McCain going on and on and on about the surge, he's flat-lining again

McCain is a boring old man who needs to go to bed

I cannot believe the crap he is asserting; nor how pompous he is; nor how lousy Brokaw is. I am in a quiet rage at the stupidity of what I hear coming from McCain--asserting he knows how to handle everything, which war has he handled? which economic dilemma has he fixed?  etc etc--

Sorry to interrupt the online blogging but I'm gagging. What an awful person but then, yeah, I know, I'm prejudiced.

McCain's pacing...

Why is he pacing around the stage while Obama talks? It's really weird and distracting. Does he suffer from ADD or something? Can't sit still? Too angry?

Our Allies?

Like Spain?

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

@ Kris

To be charitable, McCain has terrible back pain, so standing still must be agony, and the stool makes him look ridiculous.

See, his campaign has turned into such a trainwreck that I'm feeling charitable.  Must be Yom Kippur coming up.

seeing around the corners

a nice little phrase that caused a nice little tickle in the polls. he was losing this round on the 'undecided-o-meter' until now.

Was going good...

in O's argument except he said "more safe"...meant less safe...

 

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Yes, Pam. I noticed that slip too.

amk

Oh, a ringer who is

Oh, a ringer who is undecided?

How did we get back to foreign policy?

Because Brokaw is a Repub tool...he said so...sort of...

McC just insulted Chief Petty Officers...

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Iran attacking Israel ? How about the other way ?

How come suddenly we are into a territory that is all about wars ? Was this a set-up by Tom, the tool ?

amk

Even my mom noticed Brokaw's bias

My mom just told me that she thinks Tom Brokaw is biased against Obama.

To put this in context, you should know that my mom is 49 years old, speaks English as a second language and was only half-paying attention to the debate while she did the dishes. She's also essentially undecided (for the longest time, she was leaning McCain until the Palin pick). And so even though she's not terribly well-informed about how these things work and even though she has no particular liking for Obama, noticed that Tom Brokaw seems rather biased against Obama.

I lost track

of the "MFs"!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Good question, in the sense

Good question, in the sense it gets at their underlying philosophies.

 

My observation on the worms so far.

Obama - All the way uptick

Mccain - Many times flat, a few upticks, but more downticks

Eat it pundits.

amk

@ Pam

A Dkos tally had it upwards of 17 at around 10:15.  Got to be a couple of dozen by now.

What don't you know

Barack is on fire now.  That was a perfect question for his style.  Great finale.

If he ends this all with, I

If he ends this all with, I know how to fix it; trust me, well, he fell off the charts I suspect

yeah yeah yeah

POW, of course

You know

after all those plane crashes?

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

How many "I know's" can you cram in a minute ?

Mccain wins hands down. At least, that's gotta count for something, ... I think.

amk

if McCain can't help but go

if McCain can't help but go negative in this last answer. Wow sounded very funereal.

McCain didn't shake

Obama's hand and passed him off to Cindy. And this is the guy who works across the aisle.

Stephastupid said

Obama showed he belonged on the stage and probably won the debate.

"That one" crack drew the first shot from Jeff Toobin.

I think this will get some legs.

amk

@Anne

Wow, I missed that, but caught it on the rewind.  That was, again, childish on McCain's part to not shake Obama's hand at the end.  Geez.

Williams on NBC

Brian Williams NBC notd blogs have highlighted the 'that one' comment - and he expects it will be discussed more tomorrow.

McCain seemed agitated,

McCain seemed agitated, hostile. It seemed sharpened. Obama quite the opposite, composed, steady and secure. I loved his response to the Iran question. 

Confident

Calm, In charge and guess who everybody wants to have the picture taken with.

On the other hand, Who left the room?

Even the repubs on CNN agree that Obama won this one.

Yes, he did.

amk

Afterglow...

where did John and Cindy go?

Barack and Michelle are still engaging the audience...

is it time for John's nap?

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

CNN panel of 9

Everyone has either said: McCain hasn't done enough, or Obama won again (modestly).  Surprising that none of the CNN figures (other than the very weak response by John King) have spoken up for McCain.

I hate watching CNN but this was pretty entertaining.

the fact that McCain didn't

the fact that McCain didn't (couldn't) bring up the ayers crap makes those negative character attacks even more transparent and completely uncredible. Even a non-partisan would probanly agree that If mccain can't say it to Obama's face, he (and his running mate) shouldn't say it at all This performance makes it even more clear that the repub ticket is all about palin. She hasn't come around to McCain's positions (eg global warming). She's hopin' to get him to come around. If mccain dies in office, palin told is she'd make that presidency her own. Rove/ Davis et al are pushing palin not mccain. All that aside, obama was great, better than even in the first debate.

McCain has left the building!

Watching MSNBC. McCain has left and the Obamas are there taking pictures, shaking hands, working for every single vote! That is the difference, my friends!

Oh yeah, did anyone else notice the difference between the two potential First Ladies. One is confident and on her own talking to people. The other stands quietly behind her husband.

"That one" is already headlines in kos and huffpo.

Yes, the "amurikans" must know what a jerk this guy is.

And I missed all the "after-glow" gaffes. Damn, CNN.

amk

afterwards

I am watching the C-SPAN feed and everybody in the audience wants to shake Obama's hand, get his autograph, and have their picture taken with him. McCain seems to have disappeared but the TV camera loves Obama too and was showing him preferentially to McCain. I think we know who really won the debate!

Funny

McCain said we needed a steady hand in the future...does he mean like Obama?

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

10:51 @ Al

really, WVA, AZ, AK - have you been drinking - or can we start to get giddy?????????

Panel of CNN experts

The CNN panel of analysts scored it McCain=+29 and Obama=+69.

Mikell Hagood

Anything on TV tonight?

lol. Hey, I just got home from a little dinner and drinks in Chicago.  I had a friend who got laid off from CitiMortgage today along with 1,000 others and another friend whose Father has had some early tests showing cancer so we had some serious drinking to do. Truth be told, I'm more nervous about these debates than a prostitute in church so I[m glad I had good reasons to miss it.

I  just read Al's summary up top and am glad Obama didn't have THEE GAFFE (OMG!! your presidency interview of 1 1/2 years is over because you said Iraq when you meant Iran...) so now I can live to see another day.  And amk is still with us??!! Isn't it about 4 in the morning where you are amk?!

 

Did Mccain forget his gloves today ?

Whatever happenend to them ?

Great, Blither, AC et. al. saying that Obama & Michelle are still talking with the people there and Mccain has left the building (eat that Kelysey Grammer, you repug punk)

amk

I've been asking for pollsters to poll Arizona

Al - Arizona!

I'm happy to read that - I've been hoping pollsters would venture into Arizona if for no other reason than the most devastating story line for McCain is that he's at risk of losing Arizona and needs to go back there to shore up support.

Thanks to the Fieldhands...

for reports from other outlets...I can't watch Fixx or CNN...

hubby says I should...but I just can't...

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Pam, if you have CNN, you should watch it.

The entire panel is agreeing that Obama has won it on style and substance.

amk

watching local news in

watching local news in Atlanta. There's an investigation into whether Ga , Indiana, Idaho, Nevada are improperly running citzenship verifications off the new voter registration forms. (i always encouraged people to use a drivers license not ssn, or at least to use only the last 4 digits). Apparently, there's been a spike in requests to the Feds. At least this came out after the deadline. Is this responsible fed vs republican governors or plain republican voter suppression?

CNN poll (via kos)

Who did the best job in the debate?

McCain (R) 30
Obama (D) 54

Opinion of  Barack Obama (before debate)

Favorable: 64 (60)
Unfavorable: 34 (38)

Opinion of  John McCain (before debate)

Favorable: 51 (51)
Unfavorable: 46 (46)

amk

Unions and Ads...

not quite OT...the unions have really stepped up their ads in Michigan..they're great...

about the only ads in Michigan are Obama and Unions for Obama! There are a few RNC, but not many...

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

But amk...

then I'll miss one of the loves of my life...Keith O

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

It can't be good for McCain

when everyone on the set at CNN is literally laughing at McCain and his hair plug weirdness.  FYI - they're starting to leak out their insta-polling [with a HIGHER Republican percentage in breakout - they did a mix this time instead of just swing independents] and the numbers are all solidly on Obama's side.  MSNBC just said CBS results are very like the last debates, roughly something like 38% thought O won, 35% a tie, 23% McCranky won.  If a draw is a win for us, then that's just gravy.

 

[edited since someone found the exact numbers out of CNN so far :-) ]

Pam, you can't beat that. I surrender (like Mccain) :)

I don't get KO here in India.

amk

KO...

it's funny, hubby and I say that KO doesn't ask questions, he asks "answers"!

But I just love him...

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Cancer...

I hate that anyone has cancer, even McC...but that growth on the side of his face is just creepy...it's getting bigger...

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Obama clear winner...

...and McCain pushed closer to the precipice. McCain is like a typical grandpa who has 8 jokes and one-liners in his head that he uses repeatedly without realizing he just said the exact same thing 10 minutes earlier as well as in the previous debate.  Obama in a romp.

3 for 3

In addition to the "that one" slave auction line there was McCain's snap at Brokaw that he wouldn't make him Treasury Secretary, which was no doubt prompted by frustration from a stumper question, and the wager to (black) questioner Oliver Smith 'I'll bet you, you may never even have heard of (Fannie and Freddy) before this crisis.'  Obama should have asked Oliver if he had, in fact, heard of Fannie Mae before the crisis.  At least McCain has reasons to be cranky. 

Also, when you go first and the NY Times has recently reported that your campaign manager lobbied for Fannie Mae right up to the crisis, you don't introduce that topic by highlighting Obama's sketchy connections to the lender.

Nate did Great!

That was fun to watch. They are both really quick on their feet.  The Chicago guys got it together this year (except on the baseball diamond!).

Al, do you think McCain is just wishing this thing would be over this weekend?  Man, he's got a long 3.5 weeks to go. Having to worry about Arizona?!

Big handclap for the Obamanation

At least at the MSNBC site the Obamanites are right there with signs and chants. In the rain. The ground game doesn't miss a step. What organization!

When everything is a mess, where do you start?

How are we going to have 240 million working Americans supporting 80 million American baby boomers on Social Security in the next 8 years with the Social Security system we have?

Who is going to take a bite out of the greedy Wall Street CEO and put a system of checks and balances on those modern day silk suit robber barons?  Can you stop the exploitation of the American worker by major corporations?

How will increasing tax, mandatory health care, more government mandates adn regulations ever spell more money for the average American worker?  Have you done the math, because that never works.  That's the problem now.

We need:

 

- We need more domestic oil.  Pump the Northshore of Alaska.

- Fine the Wall Street robber barons for enough to build a prison to house them all for fraud and enough to repay what they ripped off the taxpayer.  Start with the 85 million given to AIG!

- Get rid of minimum wage, enact a "fair and decent wage" based on corporate profits.

- Eliminate gov't jobs that do not work.  Eliminate the duplication of services.

- Let American companies outsource, but make them pay a standard American wage in third world countries for the jobs they outsource.  If you raise the standard of living in the world it will benefit you at home!

Arizona

I think Al's onto something here... I don't know if it's just the area of Phoenix I live in, but I'm seeing an awful lot of Obama stickers on cars and stuff.  I have friends who don't regularly vote that went to the trouble of registering or updating registration just so they could go vote for Obama.  If large percentages of the resident student populations at ASU and U of A go out and vote, it may be enough, we'll see.  I would love nothing more than to see McCain get owned here in his own state.

Whiny voice

Sean's live blogging with Nate at 538 nails it on McCain's voice.

8:54 PM [Sean] I don't think people -- at a gut level -- want to hear that whiny voice for four years. I didn't want to hear Gore's slowly-explaining voice either. It sounds like he's annoyed that he has to be explaining all this obvious stuff. It grates.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ 

 8:53 PM. [Nate] I think his more serious problem is that he's playing into the grumpy old man caricature.

Catherine, you missed a good one tonight....

O-man scored several to the chin - or is it to the gut?  (Jujitsu and aikado?)  Maybe the better analogy is Obama just stood in the pocket and threw the ball all over the field, completing most of his passes as his offensive line had McInsane's defensive line looking up at the sky.  (Catherine, I know you're a baseball person but I know a bit more about football :).

Agree with previous comment  -amk? - that "that one" might have legs.  Saw a replay of the comment and the AA man sitting on the end of a row (did he ask the second question?) visably reacted to the comment, like he had just been slapped. A commentator said McShame said it twice.  Suspect there will be alot of discussion about this along racial lines which fits into the general disdain meme.  I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt however.  Think Obama's relative youth and his lower 'class' status probably greatly inpact McShame's attitude towards O-man.  I think MsShame was mostly just being a crabby old man.  Plus, racial talk is another distraction we don't need.

Arizona polls would be great to see about now.  Also, I seem to remember a recent WV poll with Obama at 42%.  Would appreciate someone explaining why Obama has that much support in light of the Appilachian connection and Al you obviously expect some movement there.  Why do you feel that way?

 

Game, set, match - Obama

A stunning and decisive win for Obama.

The best piece of jiujitsu ever by Obama:  "There's a lot of things I don't understand..."  McCain got a two-by-four between the eyes.

Obama got an 8 point favorable swing, McCain flatlined.

It's a great day to be an American.  We can win this election!  Everyone double down between now and November 4th on your effort, your focus and your commitment and victory is ours.

Hi Catherine. Sorry missed your post before.

I know you wouldn't believe this but it is true. I was up y'day night or today morning (in India) up to 0230 hrs.

Today morning, I woke up right on cue (no alarms were used in this episode) at 0630 hrs. Turned on the teevee and bang, Brokaw was just coming on.

I am pretty proud of my body clock, I must say.

But then, the damn CNN cut in with local programming, just when the post-debate debate (?) was getting to be interesting.

 

BTW, did anyone catch Carveille spluttering (yeah, unbelievable, ain't it) about how with 5% national lead, If Obama were to lose now, that something dramatic would happen in US ? Was he taking a potshot at the rethugs electoral malpractices ? Did he know something that we all don't know yet (about election frauds) ?

amk

And Al, as a Victory Celebration, I am in for $ 50.

Nov 4th couldn't come soon enough for me since I will be celebrating twice on Nov 5th (I am ahead by 91/2 hours of US eastern time) - once for my b'day and twice for BO Victory.

Also, I will be kicking out my 30-year cigarette smoking habit...wink, wink.... sigh.

amk

"That one!"

@ 12:43 Cheryl NJ - I found that moment interesting also ("That One").  I tivo'd it, so played the 5 second reaction in slo-mo and watched the young AA man.   His head turned, dropped, and his eyes closed after McCain said "that one" and pointed to Obama. Also Obama didn't move a muscle but his reaction showed in his eyes.  And McCain looked manaical as he said it.  Weird, weird, weird.

Saw a small part of the Carvelle sp? snippet

Came in on the middle-end of the discussion but it seemed they were discussing the "that one" comment and racial overtones in general.  So I interpreted Carvelle (how do you spell his name? - must be a mental block since I've lost so much respect for him) statement to mean that if he ultimately loses after having a 5-6% lead, Obama's loss would be due to the unwillingness of people to vote for an AA.

McCain In HD

@Pamela Hilliard Owens at 11:12, you aren't the only one who has noticed how bad McCain looks.  Here's a column by a Mediaweek senior editor about how McCain's appearance in high-def might be the decider in this race:

"While McCain has become a figure of fun for callow young people who like to harp on his age, it goes without saying that the man is carrying a hell of a lot more than 72 years of wear and tear on his face, and his 65-month ordeal in Hoa Lo has left its terrible stamp all over his body. And with around 34 million HDTV sets deployed here in the U.S., you’re talking about an awful lot of voters who see frailty where they might otherwise see strength.

Superficial? Absolutely. But ask yourself: Is this how real people think? You betcha.  "

 

Arianna @ HuffPo.

At the end of the debate, Brokaw asked McCain to get out of the way of his Teleprompter. He might as well have been speaking on behalf of the future: Senator McCain can you please get out of the way so we can get on with it?

Love it. :)

amk

Does anyone know...

an actual person who is undecided? I know folks voting R and folks voting D, both here in Oregon and other states, but I have yet to meet one person who is undecided.  I realize Fieldhands are a self-selected bunch who probably tend to know others equally passionate about their choice, but I'm really asking.  Everyone I've spoken to is either passionately for one or the other, or lefties disenchanted with electoral politics altogether.

Gender, war..

I kept an eye on the dials at the bottom of the screen and noticed that on several occasions, when either O or McC sounded more "hawkish" the men's approval went down and women's went up.  Contrary perhaps to stereotype.  It's been said, though, that war is one of the greatest oppressions of the male gender.  I'm old enough to remember the draft and that rings true...

When he wins....

I started thinking about "what's next." How an Obama win is necessary, but not sufficient, for what David Korten calls "The Great Turning." And what Julian Beck said about freedom.  It's..."only the beginning.  Afterwards, there is beautiful work to be done."

A lot of potential energy has become kinetic through this election.  Personally, I want to see all the folks I know who are working on sustainability issues become much more involved in participating in our government, in letting their voices be heard and in civic participation.

 

Nora Ephron @ HuffPo.

If I were married to him (Mccain), an unlikely scenario, we would probably have fought in the car on the way home tonight, because no question I tried to tell him a million times not to try to be funny, it wasn't anything he was good at.

And if I were married to Obama, another unlikely scenario but a far more attractive one, I would be driving home having a hard time not thinking about the curtains.

Funny read.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nora-ephron/life-in-the-shallow-end_b_132850.html

amk

Holy F'n Christ, Batman

How is that every NPR "man on the street" segment involves an "undecided" PUMA who, amazingly, always decides that McCain won. Everytime I turn on public radio, it's like a time machine back to April 2008.


They even called New Mexico a "swing state."

Did McCain really leave

Did McCain really LEAVE the arena right at the end of the debate?  It looked like President Obama and First Lady stayed for a long time talking with people, having their picture taken with people, Prez even signed something for someone - did the other man really LEAVE immediately.

Musta been past his bedtime?

Images AFTER the debate were telling

When I saw the townhallers lining up to get pictures/autographs of themselves with Obama (including many middle-aged white men - J6Ps) after the debate I knew the gig was up.  McCain was no where to found -he'd left the arena with Cindi after a few handshakes. Obama has won the election.

Suzy and Zogby

Suzy, yes, the McMarriage-of-Convenience couple booked pretty quickly.  If that crowd on stage really were all undecideds prior to this debate, they certainly seemed jazzed on President That One by the time it was over, getting autographs, wanting photos, etc.  Someone pointed out that Obama, first thing, made a bee-line to the vet who actually had something approaching a real moment with McCain.  I would say it was like 25+ minutes of free advertising because MSNBC and CNN kept a split screen up much of the time & there was nothing to show but the gracious Obamas.  Loved it!

 

OK, so what IS the deal with Zogby?!?!?!  Is it just me or did he seem to just disappear [Pollster has his last poll being on 9/26-27th] then conveniently pop back up when the GOP needed some low spreads to counter the national averages?  http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php  And what is his methodology that he's consistently showing a tight race in either direction, no matter what day/circumstance?  BTW, I kind of like seeing expectations dampened a little bit because I'm assuming Obama's numbers have to subside a little bit in the natural course of things [and seeing some rotten fruit from the cultural attacks with people like those idiots on the CNN Ohio panel who consistently dialed higher for Obama, yet, when pushed, voted 14-11 for McCain?!?!?]  Anyway, I'd rather not give any opening for a media narrative of "Did Obama peak too soon?  What's up with him being down from a 8 point lead to a "mere" 4 point lead?  Is this the Bradley Effect?" blah, blah, blah.

Pigs really do fly?

Good Morning all,

I'm channeling surfing as I get ready for work and I'm watching a Ferraro interview on local NYC channel.  She said Obama's knowledge and straight delivery ("he was so articulate") made up for his inexperience.  Said she and hubby were stunned at what a great job he did last night.  Said he did a fabulous job.

Yeah, I think she's still an idiot and maybe I didn't get enough sleep last night but her performance was like a comedy routine.

Ferraro

Ferraro called Obama "articulate"?  Did she mention that some her best friends are black as well? [snark]

Reminds me of the Chris Rock bit on Colin Powell running for president.

 

Sheesh.

 

What little I saw of the debate, it seemed pretty boring.  But that's exactly what Obama needed.  He looks presidential.

Al, I have a question

At this point I'm on board with whatever the Obama campaign has on tap-- they've earned the trust. But part of me is wondering about Biden's trip with Bill and Hillary through PA. Wouldn't they be of more use in Ohio, given where PA stands? I know, I know, PA still might be in play for McCain, polls be damned. I just feel like OH and FL are now ripe to be taken-- we have a chance at 350 electoral votes for cripes sake.

Also, I think Bill needs to make it down to NC. He did beautifully in the rural areas during the primary season-- he could really help seal the deal. 

No Chicken Littling-- just exuberance at what could be done under a stable sky.

@Cheryl NJ

Yes, it would be so much easier for me to just watch it live than try and find the various parts of it all over the internet on tape. lol! But I did watch a lot of it and you are right, I missed a good one.  I don't know why I was so chicken about it since I've seen both McCain and Obama do many townhalls this campaign season and Obama seems to thoroughly enjoy them.  Obviously, he was a little more careful on this one.  And McCain always weirdly wanders in his.  God, he's awful to watch with his "my friends", and lame jokes.  He really is an old man and sad as it may sound, the only old men that people instinctively first impression have some inclination to like are their older male relatives. 

Having learned more recently about his temperment makes him thoroughly unlikeable as the types of jokes he tells are only funny if they are coming from a warm hearted person. 

And Brokaw needs to give it up and just write generational books... But I will try and watch this next one live --I guess it will be Bob Schaeffer.  Crap, why not moderator Stephen Colbert?   

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