Eight More Days: The Fifty Percent Threshold

Al, only by stealing it!  And we won't let that happen again. Brokaw on MTP yesterday, referred to a comment GWB made just before 2004, pointing to a section of Ohio and saying "that's where we're going to win it."  Made me want to go back & reread the RFKJr. piece in Rolling Stone a few years ago.

But I trust this Campaign to be on top of any attempt to steal this one. Five million on the ground working their collective hearts out are not going to stand by and be suckered (again!) - and we have Authentic Journalism on our side this time too!

Thanks for 'coming home' Al.  Have Fun at Orlando!!!!!

The polls are tightening.  I'm starting to get anxious again, and I haven't been since September.

If the dailykos poll gets to 6 points, I'll make another contribution to the Obama campaign

Assuming that Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia are gone, McCain has to flip Pennsylvania and win every single other toss-up (including Ohio, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Indiana, etc.).

Even if the McCain campaign were somehow right about Pennsylvania (a highly improbable scenario), all Obama would have to do is capture Nevada's 5 EV to get to 270.

The bottom line is that the electoral math is pretty much gone. McCain has to close the national numbers, probably by 7 points, in a week.

I don't worry so much about the polls tightening.  They will tighten as more undecideds finally decide.  The key number, as Al points out, is the 50% threshold.

My only concern is that as Obama has surged in VA and PA, his numbers have not surged out west.  He has held a steady, small lead but he's not growing his numbers there.  I think spending the last 2 days campaigning there was smart and that will hoefully generate a bounce.

I have to keep reminding people that we don't need Florida or Ohio to win.  On November 4, however, I certainly hope those states are blue and it signals a blow out.

I still can't get over Pfotenhouer.  As Frank Rich noted yesterday, this is the same kind of language that sank George Allen's ship (it wasn't just uttering the word "Macaca"). 

And her way of explaining her sentiment -- that she means by "real Virginia" those people who are "more southern in nature" not like those "moving in from the District of Columbia" -- just so you really knew she meant macaca even if she didn't say it . . . Just unbelievable.  Never mind that most people in NoVa aren't from D.C., but from all over the world and the rest of the country, and especially, like me, are "Rustbelt Refugees" who will vote the economic interests of our "left behind" parents and siblings even if they have a harder time doing so. 

The telecaster even gave her a chance to retract ("Would you like to rephrase that a little?") Nope. 

But the even better news?  My "southern in nature" in laws are not exactly enthused about McCain.  One is undecided; the other told me that he had no use for military showboats and was impressed by how measured Obama was when he saw a clip of him talking to a bunch of white Illinois farmers. 

I haven't seen much coverage of Obama's network buy on Wednesday night and how this might impact polling; any speculation about its content?  Obviously a brilliant way to nullify any traction McCain may get in these final days...

Obama 48 McCain 48

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d5910d9a-6a74-4072-8746-9d5234c36359

I haven't had time to come here an awful lot recently.  I had thought that Chicken Littling was pretty well in hand but there seems to be a rash of it this morning.  I hope y'all are working, donating, calling, canvassing and gassing up your vehicles to drive folks to the polls...that Great Day is Coming. 

Staying busy means that you can't practice for the Olympic Handwringing Trials but GOTV will mean that we will win...a worthy exchange in my book.  Setting aside "stealing the election" for a moment, in this country, the campaign that gets more of its voters to the right polls on the right day wins.  That's our job. Now, my own personal belief is that as the margin of victory increases, the odds of having an election stolen become increasingly long.  Get to work, people!!!! 

Can we please not have the chicken little posts on this board and the posts about being anxious and nervous about seeing a point or 2 slippage in a few national polls. There is enough of this CL crap going on at most progressive blogs - Dkos in particular. We don't want or need that here. This is one blog that thanks to Al has maintained sanity and balance. Please CLs take it elsewhere.

The appeal of PA for McCain is that there is no early voting there, so most of its electorate could still be swayed by some exogenous event that changes the narrative somehow.  Without such a game-changer, however, there seems to be no path to a McCain victory.

In light of McCains victory guarantee

http://www.wiredprnews.com/2008/10/27/press-release-mccain-guaranteed-wi...

It is obvious how McCain will become president, in fact the details are on this very site.

http://narcosphere.narconews.com/notebook/okke-ornstein/2008/10/mccain-c...

The funny thing is that she lives in Oakton, deep in the heart of Northern VA.  It's kind of like when Lou Dobbs ripped Ivy League elites (Lou went to Harvard.)

When Obama can win, cleanly and plausibly, without needing PA, FL, or OH there is no map left for McCain. The PA strategy seems to me about having a backup plan in place in case some catastrophe shocks the polls and moves the race into a dead heat. Even in that sense; he's got a double bind of needing to battle back from early voting that has been occuring.

The clearest danger to McCain is in the south: the historic turnout among AA voters who may very well vote down a straight Democratic ticket is astounding. GA is in play.

This is landslide terroritory and like Charlie Cook says it feels too good to be true; the only hope McCain has is a massive Bradley effect that means what we are seeing is not the reality on the ground.

http://www.politicususa.com/en/Obama-Early-Voting

... no.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14943.html

One book has already closed and is paying out.

BondiBeachViews

I agree with Melissa...here at The Field Chicken Littling (CL) is no more! Just like polio was all but eradicated in the 1950s because of inoculations, CL-ing was eradicated around here in the 2008s (by June 6th to be exact!) by Al's inoculations (and his no BS/No Drama on his site!)...

Here at The Field, we take action! We volunteer, we email, we post comments on other sites, we phonebank, we donate, we canvass, we write letters, we sign petitions, we GOTV, we work! Then the next day, we get up, drink our green tea lattes, put on our Birkenstocks, charge our cell phones, eat our arugula, and do it all over again! Who has time for CLing?!?!?

Most of all, we trust Barack and Al...geez, haven't they both shown us at least since September '07 that they know what they're doing?!?!?

Speaking of donating...putting some coins in the cup for Al's Florida Adventure @ Disneyworld!  How 'bout you?

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

One of the guys at 538.com made this same point during the past several days, but I think the "it's over" meme has much more potential to hurt the Republicans than it does the Dems.

Obama's donor/volunteer base is too energized, too invested, and just plain too big to yawn and decide not to work, donate, and vote. I can't believe that the "flake rate" on our side will be anything appreciable on Nov. 4. C'mon--do 100,000 supporters each in St. Louis and Denver (plus big numbers in Kansas City, Ft. Collins, etc.) say "flake" to you?

But if I'm a McCain supporter, especially a lukewarm one, the "it's over" meme tells me that it's a waste of my time to help out that campaign, or perhaps even to head to the polls. What's the point? Obama's got it in a cakewalk anyway.

If this is correct, surely the potential for down-ballot consequences isn't hard to see....

And silly, silly--of course this isn't a reason to stop working for Obama and (at this point probably more importantly) the Congress he'll need. Kos is right: this is the time to crush them. No mercy. Beat 'em all.

I just think "McCain's dead meat" is a conventional wisdom that helps us much more than it hurts us.

As of Saturday, early vote totals in NC crossed the 1 million mark. Here in Swain County in the mtns, at the end of Friday (with 6 days left to go in Early Voting), we had matched the 2004 early vote totals.

Bill Clinton will be with Obama in Orlando on Wednesday evening, and they will have their work cut out for them.  The venue has yet to be sorted out--and I am hoping that they stage this event in the Citrus Bowl (the last venue simply wasn't big enough).

The undecided voters have to be convinced to take that step out of the disasterous Bush-McCain paradigm of irresponsibility and war-mongering.  The continued slide of the stock market and the collapse of the global economy will help make that happen (we hope).

From my efforts on the ground here, the 'bubba' vote will most likely go to McCain--but we can count on some of their wives and kids to cross over.  Orlando has seen one of the largest increases in immigrants of the whole nation, and it is no suprise that Obama is focusing like a laser on our area.  No doubt the complexion of this city has changed markedly from eight years ago.

I don't see any major 'game changers' that can tilt this toward McCain in the final week.  The US air-raid in Syria might have signaled efforts by the Bush controlled Pentagon and the State Department to whip-up instability---liike  with Russia-Georgia.

Really, the failures of the Bush/Republican ideology these past eight years have do so, so much damage to this nation.  We are on the cusp of a depression, but many in the white middle and lower class are incapable of envisioning any path out of the general malaise that is rolling over the nation.

Never in my life have I seen things this bad.  Behind all this are economic fundamentals and ideological delusions that are simply off the charts.  If the economy continues to collapse in this last week, we might see a total blow-out in Obama and the Democrat party's favor.  It is quite possible that a major economic depression is on the horizon.  No business as usual politics or policy prescriptions will suffice for what we have coming our way.   This is frightening and exhiliarating at the same time.

From the map that you present, Al, there is no way that McCain can pull this off--without willful and massive voter supression and fraud.

McCain--with his two salient votes AGAINST designating a Martin Luther King, Jr. state and national holiday--epitomizes the worst of US imperialism and crony, casino, credit card,  capitalism.   We are helping dig a grave for this delusional ideology that favors war and greed.   You will note that Obama has shifted his stump speech toward the final stretch, toward helping convince nervous white voters to abandon the sinking ship and embrace a collective, patriotic mission to save our nation from ignominious ruin.

Al, look forward to your reporting from Central Florida.  This week I will be  doing  business all along the I-4 corridor.   This is appropriate because the  tried-and-true political narratives are breaking down.  Something new is rising up.  I can see this first hand with my conversations with Latinos and African Americans.  It is quite striking how African Americans are, in general, much more knowledgable about world affairs and the economy than are most of the 'Bubba' voters.  There is no hope for the anti-worker Bubba voter--he is simply lost and discombobulated.

(If I can make contact with you while you are here, I will bring you a four-pack of Orange Blossom Pilsner 2.)

Just this last week I have had contact with a former CEO of Disney (inquiring about work on his ecological sensative lakefront), and the another CEO of a major airline.  Of course, I knew better than to broach the subject of politics with the former Disney chief (hey, I gotta eat, right?).  The airline CEO, I think, is leaning toward Obama.

 50,000 voters purged in GA, against federal law.

The only way to finish this is to work hard to make it a landslide so it is much harder to steal. Crush, Baby, Crush!

In Denver, yesterday was the largest gathering I can remember since the 2006 May Day marches that brought out 75,000+.

And as for Fort Collins, I'm pretty sure that kind of turnout is unprecedented...for anything. I mean, the entire city has an estimated population of roughly 129,000! I used to work there and I really am having a hard time imagining that many people in that place.

Obama 52 McCain 43

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7bcdca4d-f6ea-4515-9928-119c5590638e

Oh, sorry.  Al, I agree with your critique of becoming too complacent and thinking this is 'in the bag'.  No, it is not over until it is over.

I am talking to almost everyone I come across, encouraging them to early vote.  When I meet the working class, white construction guys that refuse to vote for Obama I know that nothing is in the bag.   We might have the momentum, but we don't necessarily have the white working class in the South.  And this is a crying shame--and part of the residue of white supremacy that is still kicking.

Let's be clear--if it weren't for corporate propaganda and a dumbed-down, depoliticized population, this wouldn't even be a contest at this point.  However, we have to deal with the political reality that we have--not the one that we would like to have at this point in time.

Al, when you come to Florida, just tune into AM radio political discussion--nothing but rightwing diatribes and political delusion.

Interestingly, when I was in Tampa yesterday, I listened to one AM radio station that actually had liberal hosts.  The audience was going ape-shit, they didn't know how to deal with a different political perspective.  This was really strange, given that I have heard nothing but blanket rightwing memes on talk radio for the over twenty years that I have lived here.

We run phonebanking each weekend here in Folsom.  Over the past two weekends, we have had 20 new volunteers turn out to participate in phoning for the first time, and made more calls in these past two weekends than we have ever produced before.

So I don't think Obama supporters are getting complacent or flaking out at the finish line.

The weekend polling that shows Obama within striking distance here on McPain's very own turf has many of us excited, motivated and doing the happy dance.  Even if we don't pull it off, if we make McNasty actually work to keep his own state, well, that is a victory in and of itself.  I live and work in Blue Central Phoenix, so I may be getting a skewed impression, but all the support I see is tilted for Obama.

It's time to pour it on and break that tape at a high speed.

From this review of an interview with Obama discussing his views on the courts, he gives another shout out to the power and necessity of grassroots organizing (with some bonus legal detail that I'd need to think hard to really understand):

"Based on this interview, it seems unlikely that Obama opposes constitutionalizing the redistributive agenda because he's an originalist, or otherwise endorses the Constitution as a "charter of negative liberties," though he explicitly recognizes that this is how the Constitution has been interpreted since the Founding. Rather, he seems to think that focusing on litigation distracts liberal activists from necessary political organizing, and that any radical victories they might manage to win from the courts would be unstable because those decisions wouldn't have public backing."

strides perfectly towards the tailend of the race.  I have not seen him this fired up.

amk

I agree with Nick - PA is McCain's best hope for a surprise win.  No early voting -so he can still poison the well for Obama.

I know people who have been canvassing for Obama weekends in Wilkes Barre - They say "race" is still an issue for people.

Was told that Obama is expecting a lot of voting shenanigans by the Republicans. Has 5,000 lawyers lined up to help out.

I don't sense that complancentcy is a real problem. I think people want to vote in this historic effort, regardless. They want to know thatthey participated. They want to be able to tell their grand kids that they were part of history. Sinilarly, the "youth' want to make a statement as well - that heir time has come. Obama could be ahead 20 points and people would still want to have a voice in the moment.

Remember in one of his races at the Olympics when he just knew he would win and he pulled up--waving his arms in air like he just didn't care-- just enough to blow a new world record? He was so far ahead of everyone else, he didn't remember to keep running his hardest and fastest all the way to the finish line!

Sure, he won, but he also lost!

"Two words": New Hampshire and Usain Bolt...

we can, will, and must run hard and fast all the way to the finish line!

we will not slow down or let up!

We're going to win and break an Electoral College Record!

Remember, this is not about Barack Obama, this is about us and America!

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

Interesting short article re: Hillary in Chicago on Sunday.  One of the hosts was Alderman Danny Solis who is the brother of Patty Solis Doyle - the former Clinton campaign manager.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27391024

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/

Have fun.

amk

I agree with those who think the "McCain's finished" meme helps us more then it hurts us.

And I think Obama is doing a good job of avoiding any complacent behavior by pushing this idea of early voting.

By Nov. 4th, this race will be 20% or 30% done and then we finish this thing.

Crush baby, Crush

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/stevens_found_guilty_on_all_co.php

Great News...Perfect timing..Love it.

amk

http://www.adn.com/news/politics/fbi/stevens/story/569134.html

amk

Keep your eye on Barbara West, the WFTV anchor person that interviewed Biden.  She quoted Karl Marx's dictum "From each according to their ability..." and asked if this was Obama's philosophy.  Biden, rightly, retorted "Youv'e got to be kidding me...".

The meme in rightwing radio and on Hannity is that this was a legitimate question. Given the history of red-baiting in this country, one can see that this line of questioning was out-of-line.

West is a GOP activist, which is fine, but the way she set up this gotcha question was totally unprofessional.

Politics is going to get pretty crazy in this last week toward the general election--and Central Florida has its fair share of low-info, John Bircher wackos that will resort to fear-mongering because they cannot win on the issues that matter to most voters.

On Saturday both Obama and McCain held rallies at huge locations near Albuquerque.  McCain drew 1000-1500, Obama drew 45,000-50,000.  This in a swing state that went for Bush v Kerry and Gore v Bush, now with an RCP average of Obama up 8.4%.  It sure doesn't look like McCain is getting Mo' to beat the 8.4% trough.  Further, a third of NM has voted already, and we plan to have 70%+ of the ballots in before Nov 4.  As the local bumper sticker says: Obamanos!

Hey Pam - I am Jamaican so I have to correct you on your point about Bolt. Yes he slowed up at the end, but he still DID break his own world record. He said after the race that since he already had the record he was just focused on winning and when he had the big lead he started celebrating early. A lot of us Jamaicans, even though we still love him, were disappointed that he celebrated early because he really could have destroyed his record, so your point about not celebrating too early is well taken.

Missouri: Obama 48 McCain 47

Ohio: Obama 49 McCain 44

Florida: Obama 51 McCain 47

North Carolina: McCain 49 Obama 48

Colorado: 50 McCain 46

Virginia: Obama 51 McCain 47

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fox_rasmussen_polling/fox_rasmussen_swing_state_polling_october_26_2008

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/dozens_of_call_c...

And slightly off topic but just wondering on the way home from work if there are about as many Republicans who recently were/are/or soon to be in the Big House as in the Senate? 

I'm seeing the exact opposite of complacency.  People are coming out of the woodwork to help. I was at the Y today in the exercise room and spoke with a woman who is taking election day off to make sandwiches for canvassers.  Then when I finished my swim, the lifeguard asked if there was something he could do on Election Day.  I hooked him up.  This is a full on movement we're witnessing. 

The last time I remember Americans being this focused on something was the end of the Vietnam War...May Days protest in D.C.

This is from a Kos diary. Hope my attempt to embed works. The diary is at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38h-f6QuN24

 The vet who did not vet 

The best video I have seen in awhile.