El Flip Flop Mas Grande

By Al Giordano

 

Senators John McCain and Barack Obama were both co-sponsors of the Immigration Reform Bill of 2007, but McCain, being a Republican, took far more heat for it from his party bases. Right wing talk radio hosts and bloggers were outraged. Rush Limbaugh called it "the Comprehensive Destroy the Republican Party Act of 2007," because it would have opened a path to citizenship for twelve million undocumented Americans who would then presumably utilize that citizenship to participate and vote in elections (Limbaugh believes that they would vote mostly Democratic).

The turning point toward what will inevitably bring that reform (just as all waves of immigrants throughout American history have always been legalized after initial prejudiced campaigns against them wore off) came on May 1, 2006, when millions participated in gigantic demonstrations throughout the country (half a million in Los Angeles alone) for immigrant rights. It was the first General Strike - in which workers from many professions walked off the job in protest, and also students of all ages - in the United States in more than 70 years, dwarfing any protest on any issue in recent US history.

Politicians were fearful: Only two US Senators - Ted Kennedy and Obama - participated in the street marches on that day two years ago. That fear continued into 2007 when many US senators, Democrat and Republican alike, that had originally pledged their support for the bill folded at the eleventh hour and voted against it.

Still, McCain expected to be able to reap the electoral benefits of his high-profile cosponsorship of the 2007 reform bill. In June of 2007 his own campaign advisors said as much to the Washington Post:

 

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is not wavering on immigration. This week, he continued to stand firm with President Bush in seeking a Senate compromise on the issue in the face of intense opposition from core activists in the Republican Party.

 

His advisers refer to such a stance as one of the signatures of his political career: principled stands on tough issues.

 

But by November of last year, McCain, too, flipped positions on his "signature" issue:

 

Now, the Republican presidential candidate emphasizes securing the borders first. The rest, he says, is still needed but will have to come later.

 

"I understand why you would call it a, quote, shift," McCain told reporters Saturday after voters questioned him on his position during back-to-back appearances in this early voting state. "I say it is a lesson learned about what the American people's priorities are. And their priority is to secure the borders."

 

He repeated his new stance again and again during debates with his GOP rivals who had tried to hammer him over his original support for the reform.

That flip flop has driven, according to polls, a massive rejection of McCain by Hispanic voters. Immigration reform is, hands down, the most outcome-determinative issue among millions of voters in 2008 (during the Univision Spanish-language debate among Democratic presidential candidates, seventy percent of the thousands of written questions sent in by viewers were about the reform bill).

A new Research 2000 nationwide poll echoes what all other surveys have revealed about the Hispanic vote between Obama and McCain: Obama towers with 65 percent to 24 for McCain and one percent each for Bob Barr and Ralph Nader (this, even as Nader tapped Matt Gonzales as his vice presidential candidate: one of the paradoxes of Nader's proclaimed progressivism is that historically his candidacies have only appealed to a certain segment of white voters; part of this is caused by his own recent "talking white" statements - in psychobabble parlance, "he has issues" that impede him ever becoming a coalescing force among the multi-racial left). That leaves 9 percent more up for grabs and if Obama doesn't commit a misstep in who he names for vice president (more on that in a moment) he will be well positioned to sop the bulk of those votes up, too, potentially bringing him over 70 percent of the vote among the fastest growing demographic group in the electorate.

The Obama campaign has deployed an army of organizers and "Obama Fellows" to register Hispanic voters from Las Vegas to Las Cruces and everywhere else, changing the electoral math particularly in the swing states of Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Florida but also, very significantly, in Texas. Eight million Hispanic Americans voted in 2006. To win two thirds of their votes would bring an advantage of 2.7 million votes nationwide. Now, watch the numbers tick upward: Two thirds of, say, 10 million would bring an advantage of 3.4 million for Obama. Or if 12 million Hispanic-Americans vote in November, that would mean a margin of four million votes more for Obama than for McCain, and heavily concentrated in some major battleground states.

Obama's success so far among Latinos, and Mexican-Americans (the largest subgroup) in particular is striking because of efforts during the primaries to play the race card and turn Latinos and blacks against each other (your correspondent witnessed a very ugly example of that during the Nevada caucuses last January).

Had McCain not switched positions, he could have made a real play for those voters (George W. Bush had unprecedented success for a Republican winning Hispanic votes in Texas and later nationwide). But they're not going to forgive him, unless...

There's only one thing Obama could do to lose the goodwill he is building among Hispanic-American voters, the very demographic groups who could seal his landslide victory in November. I'm going to put it on the table, right out into the open: There are some names being floated on the alleged "short list" of vice presidential nominees for the Democrat. They include three US Senators that voted against immigration reform last year: Jim Webb of Virginia (who has said he's not interested in the post), Claire McCaskill of Missouri, and Evan Bayh of Indiana. The press has blown Bayh, in particular, some kisses of late in the veepstakes reporting.

To pick a running mate that voted against the 2007 Immigration Reform Bill would give McCain the opening to pull a large chunk of the Hispanic vote back into the GOP column, and would have a wet blanket effect on the growing enthusiasm for Obama among this sector, dampening voter turnout.

In politics, there are flip flops, and then there are flip flops big enough to matter, but the cave-in last year on immigration reform - more than on any other issue - by some Democratic legislators, and later last year by Senator McCain, constituted the biggest flip flop of all: the one that could lose somebody the presidency this year.

Obama can pick any governor, any legislator that voted for immigration reform, or anyone from any sector that did not vote against it last year, and still run away with the Hispanic vote in November. But to pick a member of Congress that voted against it would provoke a backlash with real consequences in voter turnout and the Electoral College with a force that probably cannot be found on any other single issue in 2008.

With Caroline Kennedy on the vetting committee, and her family's singular commitment to immigration reform, I'm not particularly concerned that this factor will go unnoticed in these final weeks as a VP nominee is being selected, but when names like Bayh's are floated in the media, his 2007 vote against immigration reform has to be brought up again and again, because it is that large of a deal breaker.

Comments

I don't understand the infatuation with Bayh

and Al puts forward a more urgent reason NOT to put him on the ticket, the more I look at it, the more the chance of Gov.Napolitano (AZ), and Tim Kain(VA) become more solid.

What are Napolitano's opinions on immigration, and the latest affirmative action proposition in AZ?

Fieldhands on Facebook

In light of Al joining Facebook, I thought it would be good to expand our realm of organizing and have created a group for Fieldhands to meet and greet.

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=19651909580

My hope is that this will run alongside the existing group on Ning and ensure that we can reach as many friends, family, and other people of interest as possible.  Personally, please feel free to join up and help this group take root and sprout up!

The only rule is that no chicken littles are allowed and be prepared to innoculate others as we move forward into the fall!

I agree with you that Obama

I agree with you that Obama must finese his VP pick, and that the Hispanic voting block is one of the most important for his organization to consider. There are others,however, that weigh equally in consideration: those who center on issues of youth, gender,environment,economy, war, etc. As Obama considers his options in the diminishing days before the convention, I would love to see him take another trip: SOUTH! Let him do a meet and greet to Mexico,Nica, Bolivia, Venezuela, Haiti, Brazil,Cuba....much like Europe-exposure, notcommittments. I'm sure you could give him a list of names, no?

Evan Bland

I have the same questions asked by PalGirl2008.

What's the infatuation with Evan Bland?  I expect Tim Kaine is on the correct side of all these issues. I have questions with his positions on Choice - but I'm no longer a 'single issue' voter.  This election is too important.

Not worried

I'm guessing this post is intended as a pre-emptive message to the campaign. My hunch is that they're with you already (I'm not buying into any of the short-list rumors). African-Americans, young people, and Latinos are too essential to an Obama win for the campaign to miscalculate. In fact, these groups are ground zero for the redrawing of the electoral map that the Obama campaign is committed to.

 

I got an interesting comment when

I was doing phone banking for Obama to Spanish speakers in Texas during the primaries. While I was talking to a woman on the phone, I heard a guy in the background yelled. 

"Que se vaya a la chingada ese güey; él votó a favor del muro" Referring to Obama.

So, there is a strong sentiment among many Latinos when it comes to inmigration. Most of us have an aunt, uncle, cousin, who came here through the back door.

Evan BYE

I think that the media's fondness of Bayh is directly related to the "white, hard-working, blue collar Americans" narrative that Hillary gave us. Its just another way to continue poking at the racial undertones of this election by talking about how Bayh can secure those votes that Obama has such a hard time getting on his on.

That said, there is no way I can see Obama's campaign picking Bayh.   First, his popularity here in Indiana is not nearly what the media seems to think it is... Yes, he was a 2 term Governor, has been a Senator since '98 and is the son of a much loved former Senator Birch Bayh, but family name only carries so much loyalty, and it has carried Evan a good part (and thats being nice) of the distance he has traveled in his political career.  

Also, Evan was a STAUNCH Hillary supporter. That in and of itself is not reason to not have him on the ticket (though I think its a very weak reason). The thing is that Evan flexed ALL of his political muscle, to the point of straining quite a few relationships throughout the state, to ensure Hillary's win... which we all know was nominal.     

There is a very decent chance (in my opinion) that Indiana will actually go for Obama regardless of Bayh being on the ticket... and I wouldnt be surprised if come 2010, Senator Bayh becomes Former Senator Bayh.

Thanks for the synopsis of

Thanks for the synopsis of the immigration bill history.  One thing has confused me though - I've heard McCain say things like Obama weakened the immigration bill with measures that ensured it wouldn't pass.  What is that about?

P.S. Reading this make me think about Richardson again for VP.  Kaine is a fav for me but I've been thinking about the "familiarity" factor.  Everyone goes on about McCain being a known quantity and it's just 'cos we've seen his face on TV for years.  My concern if Obama picks an unknown like Kaine, it becomes two unknowns on the ticket.  Richardson (along with the Hispanic vote), has all his diplomatic experience, energy + executive experience.  Plus he just comes across as a nice guy.  I like the pluses for Kaine I really do - it's just that he would be completely anonymous to a lot of people.

KD

Agree to a point

While I agree that picking a veep that voted against immigration reform could hurt Obama in the eyes of some hispanics, I also believe that the veep pick is almost always blown way out of proportion.  People vote for the top of the ticket, not the bottom.  Hell, Dubya was able to make Satan himself his veep, and it did almost nothing to his poll numbers.  Another Bush was able to get elected with Dan Quayle as his veep.

Unless you pick someone completely off the wall, say the Harriet Myers of VP choices, the effect the pick will have on the outcome of the election is minor.

Glad You Put This Out There, Al

Al-glad you put this right out there. I'm not one of those who thinks E. Bayh will be the choice. There are far better choices and as someone above said he is far too bland-I'm just not feeling that he's the choice. I still think we're all running around in circles speculating but that the Obama camp may have some surpirses up their sleeves. We all learned that in the primaries.

 

On a side note- many are predicting McCain may suddenly have to withdraw  as a candidate due to a sudden healh problem down the road. Today word comes out that he had to have another mole removed...Could there really be some sort of a switcharoo this late in the game where say Romney becomes the Republican candidate? Would love to know your thoughts on this conspiracy theory?

I'm very glad to see this post.

I was also very heartened, because I saw at FirstRead that it appears to many that the VP will likely  not be a senator and I hope that is true. I think we need a fresh-non-Washington face on the ticket. I like Sellibus very much, despite the rap against her that she can't deliver a speech. She's a good governor and as a woman I would be thrilled to have such a strong female leader on the ticket. Same goes for Gov. Napolitano of AZ. I think she would also put her state in play; but winning would mean the state goes back into Republican hands at the gubnetorial level and with redistricting coming I don't think Obama would want that too.

 

Tim Kaine is emerging it seems as a popular choice too. I like Mark Warner more and would actually suggest he pick Warner and put Kaine on the ticket in VA as Senator; I think he would win in a cake walk against Gilmore and Warner has a great deal of executive experience and can talk the NASCAR set and deliver VA.

I don't think it's that specific...

Al, I think the latino communities are just generally fed up with the Republican's as a whole because of the party's heated anti-immigration rhetoric.

I think they'd much rather go with Obama (even if he selects someone like Bayh) rather than run off to McCain and put into power a party they have come to so greatly mistrust.

As much as I don't like Bayh, his pros seem to out wieght his cons for your average Dem voter/moderate Republican/conservative Independent. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama taps him as his running mate.

Orlando Sanchez @ 12:41 and Kyle B @ 1:10

Orlando Sanchez:

Can you translate that for us? I took 4 years of Spanish in high school and all I remember is how to ask where the shoe store is.

 

Kyle B:

I agree, it seems everyone forgets that Evan Bayh was a strong Hillary supporter. Obama himself stated he wants a VP who has the same vision. There's no way he will ever pick a Hillary supporter because she and her supporters are the status quo and have completely different philosophies and vision from Obama.

My guess - It is going to be a governor

Yesterday, on MTP, this is what Obama said about his criteria for VP pick:

“I'm going to want somebody with integrity; I'm going to want somebody with independence, who's willing to tell me where he thinks or she thinks I'm wrong; and I'm, I'm going to want somebody who shares a vision of the country where we need to go, that we've got to fundamentally change not only our policies, but how our politics works, how business is done in Washington.”

If he is really sincere about this, it pretty much rules out the senators mentioned frequently.. Biden, Bayh etc..

He also said this:

"I think the most important thing from my perspective is somebody who can help me govern.  I want somebody who I'm compatible with, who I can work with, who has a shared vision, who certainly complements me in the sense that they provide a knowledge base or an area of, of expertise that can be useful.  Because we're going to have a lot of problems and a lot of work to do, and I'm not interested in a vice president who I just send off to go to funerals.  I want somebody who's going to be able to roll up their sleeves and really do some work."

 

So he is looking for an independent thinker, not from washington, and has an area of expertise. It points to a governor. I don't think it is going to be Sebelius. It is going to be a white male (to be blunt). My guess is Kaine and Schweitzer are on the short-short list. Everybody knows about Kaine's friendship with Obama and their comfort level etc so he is definitely a serious contender. The reason I say Schweitzer has a chance is because Obama spent a a day and half in Butte around July 4 with the governor and his wife (and O man's family). I bet they had a serious discussion. Also, Schweitzer's expertise is Energy. The energy issue is going to be central in this election. Plus he is a catholic and endorsed by NRA. Schwetizer (and Jon Tester) are the kind of democrats we should run against republicans.

VP hunch: Gore

I know Gore has said he doesn't want it, and he has a great life right now, but stay with me for a moment and hear me out.

First, consider Obama's recent statement on his VP selection criteria:

--

“I’m going to want somebody with integrity. I’m going to want somebody with independence — who’s willing to tell me where he thinks, or she thinks, I’m wrong. And I’m going to want somebody who shares a vision of the country: where we need to go — that we’ve got to fundamentally change not only our policies, but how politics work, how business is done in Washington.” 

...

“I think the most important thing, from my perspective, is somebody who can help me govern,” Obama said. “I want somebody who I’m compatible with, who I can work with, who has a shared vision, who certainly complements me, in the sense that they provide a knowledge base or an area of expertise that can be useful. Because we’re going to have a lot of problems and a lot of work to do." 

“I’m not interested in a vice president who I just send off to go to funerals,” he continued. “I want somebody who’s going to be able to roll up their sleeves and really do some work.”

--

There are few short-listers who fit all of these criteria as well as Gore.  Particularly interesting to me is Obama's insistence that he wants someone who has a "knowledge base or an area of expertise that can be useful."  This is especially interesting considering how much Obama has recently been emphasizing global warming in his major speeches (think about his Berlin speech and his acceptance speech in Minneapolis).  

Furthermore, Gore is more likely than any of the current short-listers to generate the loads of positive coverage and change the shape of the race decisively in Obama's favor.  Obama has said that he wants to win the election with a mandate, so he is probably drawn towards the possibility of picking a game-changing VP like Gore.   

Finally, Obama has already said that he wants Gore to be in his cabinet, and if Gore is to be in the cabinet anyway, why not give him the VP job?

If Obama is thinking along these lines, Axelrod and Obama have done a great job of getting the press to bark up the wrong trees.     

 

VP Choice

Seabrook - great analysis. I would love if this turns out to be true. If Gore would actually do this, he would be the perfect choice. Obama/Gore would be a winning team for sure. This has been my secret wish for sometime now. I just don't know if Gore would want to be VP again.

New Mexico on His Mind

Mentions NM:

"This is an emergency we feel not only when reading the Wall Street Journal, but when we travel across Ohio and Michigan, New Mexico, no matter where you meet people day after day who are one foreclosure, one illness, one pink slip away from economic disaster," he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080728/ap_on_el_pr/obama_economy

on the day when he's meeting with all his senior staff and VP vetters:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/07/28/1228874.aspx#comments

Things that make you go hmmm

KD

Bayh

The cynic in me suspects that the person behind all the rumors that Bayh is a favored choice is... none other than Senator Evan Bayh himself.

None of these leaks and rumours are worth the paper they're printed on. Though I wouldn't be surprised if the Obama campaign was tossing out some red herrings for people to follow after.

I haven't the slightest idea who it might be, but I trust that it will be a strong choice. As always, my personal favorite is Brian Schweitzer.

I think Bayh's legitimate chances in veepstakes are overblown.

I truly and honestly believe that Evan Bayh's supposed chances are essentially nil, and the only reason that he is floated on the leaked veep shortlist, along with Clinton, is give some credence to the idea that the latter's interests are being considered due to her "earning" that much during the primary battle.

Bayh was relatively mundane during the primary season, and was one of not too many Clinton surrogates who refrained from using ungodly bombastic language in trying to demean Obama. As an early potential fringe candidate and someone fitting into the "traditional, moderate, Southern Dem" mold, he makes the most sense in terms of selecting a Clinton supporter to "give serious consideration" towards.

I still think his chances are nil, though as Obama seems to be avoiding the inclusion of many Clinton's surrogates in key roles in this campaign.

Hinting about Texas

Al, several times now you have hinted that the Mexican-American vote in TEXAS could flip the state to Obama. Given that we have a Mexican-American candidate for the U.S. Senate, do you honestly think this is a possibility? The most a Democrat has received since 1992 was 44% for president and no Democrat has won a statewide office since Ann Richards was defeated.

Are you seeing something that the rest of the media isn't seeing? Because the polls I read on both the presidential and senatorial election are pretty darn close, but no one is talking about that.

Gore's the best choice...

... and I don't know why folks aren't leaning on him harder to run.  He could ask for a pledge from Obama to make renegotiating Kyoto a first-year priority in return for running, which is the one thing that's needed immediately if he really wants to do something about atmospheric CO2 in the short-medium term.

Gore as VP completely dismantles McCain's Johnny-come-lately anti-global-warming claims in a way that Gore as surrogate or convention speaker could never hope to do.  It would instantly make a climate change the major topic of the VP debate and thrust it and the huge contrast it draws between Democratic and Republican thinking into the limelight weeks before the election.

Gore also hits every single point except for one that people have demanded of Obama's VP pick:

  1. Southern/white/blah
  2. Executive experience
  3. Outside-the-beltway
  4. Strongly against the war from the beginning
  5. Strong support for immigration reform
  6. Not Hillary Clinton (can only do so well)

On top of that, Gore practically ran his 2000 campaign as a contrast between himself and Bush on Social Security, which promises to be at issue in the waning days of this year's election.  Obama can point to Gore and say that Gore wanted to do the right thing in 2000, but Bush (and McCain) squandered our opportunity, and then Bush (and McCain) tried to dismantle it entirely in 2005.

I don't know of another rumored VP choice that fits the bill half as well as Gore, and I think his reason not to run (doesn't want to politicize fighting climate change) is absurd given the edge Obama has and would extend with Gore's help.  Gore's work on climate change in an Obama administration will be under domestic political attack whether he does it as VP or in a capacity as an independent advisor, and Gore's kidding himself if he thinks McCain will give him the time of day should he manage to win.

I'm confident Obama wins without Gore, but I'd prefer Gore runs because I'm sure it magnifies Obama's victory and puts him into office with a mandate to make climate change a top priority.

Brian Schweitzer...Hmmmm-it makes sense!

I think many of us are right to think the Obama camp is throwing people off a little. After reading the comments here, reading the comments on several other sites, and after researching Brian Schweitzer through his website and past and present news articles I'm beginning to think he's going to be the VP pick. His stance on energy policy says a lot and his bi-partisan approach in Montana feeds directly into Barack's beliefs that the only way to get things done is by uniting and getting both sides to move forward together.  I think Kaine is too predictable and Sebelius will really make the Clinton holdouts even more pissed than they already are. Just remember the media has been fooled by the Obama camp before. I don't know, bells are going off on this one for me. Fasten your belts because there could be a twist coming in August.

About Schweitzer

On paper, Schweitzer is a fantastic pick.  However, he begrudgingly gave a tepid endorsement of Obama after he won the Montana primary.  It's clear that he's not an Obama fan and I can't see him choosing a VP that doesn't believe in him or his candidacy.  Besides, it's all a moot point because Schweitzer publicly and strongly removed himself from the running after his name was floated around.

Off Topic...

But wanted to get Al's take on the reported purging of some of the voter rolls in swing states as discussed on Kos: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/28/4727/23178/316/558035

Translation for I_Love_You_Al

Here is a translation of the comments Orlando Sanchez reports:

"That guy can go to $%#&*! He voted for the Wall!" (referring to the Border Fence)

That guy was in a pickle cuz Hillary and McCain voted for it too!

BTW, Donde se puede comprar zapatos? :-)

Si somos americanos, seremos buenos vecinos;
compartiremos el trigo,seremos buenos hermanos --
canción de Rolando Alarcón

Todos somos americanos.-- Barack Obama

I'm in the minority here, I think.

Since when does it all the sudden make sense to start saying things that sound an awful lot like "Obama should do this", "If he doesn't want to alienate X, he better do this", or "To seal victory, Obama had better pander to X"?

The "undocumented" alien problem (boy, do I despise the white-washing done on this topic by both sides) is not so simple as you present it, Al.

Uncontrolled immigration is a problem, not a social condition. However, it's not a problem that's going to be resolved by either pretending a band-aid twenty feet high and fifteen hundred miles long will fix it; likewise, it's not a problem that's going to be resolved by pretending there's no problem. Yes, there are many strong opinions on both sides - many of them informed. However, to think that we on the outside have all the sudden a coach's wisdom is more than a little arrogant.

How do I want Obama to handle this issue? The same way he's handled all the other tough issues that have come his way - his own way. I trust the man. I think he's smarter than me, you, and most of the people that post here (and that's saying something.) I think when the time comes, he'll have a down-the-field plan that most of us will acknowledge as common wisdom after the fact. I think he'll develop this plan by integrating the opinions of experts on all sides of the issue. I think - and here's the key, and what separates him from others - that he will integrate his response to this problem with his responses to other problems.

It's all great fun, I realize, to try and guess the Veep. I think it's a little pointless and more than a little arrogant to through around the "ought".

Al seems about right so far

A little while back Al predicted the two likely choices were Kaine and Sebelius. Today the Washington Post broke news that "close associates" of Kaine's have said he's a serious choice and that he and Sebelius are the only governors being looked at.

Now there's a good chance this Post story is just some aide to Kaine blowing standard vetting procedure way out of proportion, but the sights seem to be narrowing in on Kaine or Sebelius.

My first choice was Schweitzer, but he's seeming less and less likely - unless Obama wants him and made with the sweet talk in regards to having an independent voice and being able to run with his energy plan.

WashPost also mentions Biden

Washington Post article linked by Jason also mentions Joe Biden. Many places referring to that article seem to be overlooking Biden - wonder why? Biden is named as prominently as Evan Bland...

Still think Al's 'first call' of Kaine is more likely. But I like Biden.

Kaine

Apparently Kaine is for off shore drilling while Obama is against it so I see a problem there with Obama selecting Kaine. Also Kaine's position on a woman's right to choose will not be pleasing to many women and in this cycle I really think both persons on the ticket should be pro choice. Mark Warner would be a much better choice than Kaine in my view but he took himself out of the running early which is too bad. He would have been a great pick for VP.

Kaine's position on pro choice

Kaine is personally pro-life (He's Catholic), but he is pro-choice in governing.  He has said often that he would never criminalize a woman or her doctor.

What bothers me is all the speculating about him in Politico, Huffpost (where I think there'll be an interview with him), and WaPo. EvenBill Kristol!  I'm connected to the office and I don't believe there has been leaking as reported. Kaine is going to Washington today, but for his monthly radio show. There was already a camera outside the gov mansion, and I worry he'll be mobbed with questions today.

Is this all misdirection?  Is it purposeful leaking for vetting purposes?

 

Kaine - Likely Not

I am convinced as of this morning that Obama's VP pick is not going to be Kaine. All this buzz around Kaine since yesterday afternoon (how they have provided tons of documents to the vetting team, how they are planning transition if he is picked) is the main reason. This is not how the Obama campaign operates. Heck, no one has a clue about the monthly fundraising numbers until they go public. A campaign that has been better than most about being tight-lipped would allow so much leaked info about its VP pick. I think not. I am expecting a curveball.

RCP Average

I find it interesting that Real Clear Politic didn't include Research 2000 in their averages.  I am not sure if RCP doesn't use Research 2000 before.  It does seem the media and RCP wants to make the race closer...

kathleen sebelius

I have thought for awhile that it will be Kathleen Sebilius, regardless of what the Clintons want.  Then I read last week (sorry no link, no idea of where I read it) that the Obama vetters had leaked the name of some Republican female as a VP choice.  

Just like the commenter above, I thought it sounded very unlike our vetting team to be leaking anything.  So if they did leak it, I thought it would just be to get the idea of a "female that is not Clinton" out there to pave the way for the announcement about Kathleen Sebelius.

I still think it will be Kathleen - and Barack's comments this week have only reinforced my thinking.  I think she's closest to his "change" message and is the only one I know about who really wants to change the way business is done, has changed the way business is done in her state.  And he's completely comfortable with her, as far as I can tell.

Also, one of the VP wanna-be types said they had been told by Barack that talking about the VP process was the way to get yourself removed from consideration.  So I don't think it's any of the ones that are talking about it.

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About Al Giordano

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Publisher, Narco News.

Reporting on the United States at The Field.

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