Evolutionary Leaps and American Public Opinion

Good food for thought, Al.  Reminds me of one of my favorite andecdotes from whole election.  I think it was Brendan who relayed the story of a man in IN who during the primary was asked who he would be voting for and he responded that he figured he was gonna vote for the coon.  And if that racist voted for O in the primary when he had another Democrat to chose from, I figure there will be plenty who will overlook their racism to vote in their best economic interests.  How many is the real question.  27 more days....

Al,

I've been reading you since February and hands down, this is my absolute favorite.  I'm without words to describe how much I enjoyed your observation of the political winds of change --taking place from coast to coast and everywhere in between.

Great piece, Al! I've been bemoaning the "unevolved" masses lately, often feeling quite sick and despairing about the state of the country and our species. This gives me a new way to hold a bit of hope if indeed evolution can be accelerated and imposed upon us.

From the hills of western NC

I had been given the book "The Tipping Point" by Malcom Gladwell as a gift about the same time Obama had that 20,000+ outdoor rally in Austin, TX before he even declared.  As I read the book and watched people reacting to Obama, it made me think that we were rapidly approaching a "tipping point" in society, and Obama was the spark to ignite it.  As Gladwell said, "Ideas and products and messages and behaviors spread like viruses do."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Tipping_Point_(book)

It seemed like a generational shift to me (of course there are exceptions), where people Obama's age and younger were ready to start taking the reins of society, and after a lifetime of being frustrated with the way things were and hearing our parents tell us, "That's just the way it is...", decided things could be different, or Changed.

Much credit should go to Obama for recognizing where the public was and deciding to run when he did, since I'm not sure a Clinton candidacy would have sparked the movement that we have today.  It was obvious around Super Tuesday time that indeed America hit a tipping point and the floodgates were open.

Add in the economic crisis happening now, and the above theory to the tidal wave that already started, and we could very well be part of a societal evolution "for the ages."  Full steam ahead!

I was talking to a friend of mine whose parents are Korean immigrants. They used to run a convenience store in DC, with all the racial tensions that entails. Nearly their entire experience with African Americans has been resentment, robbery, and other negatives.

 

She says she was completely shocked to find out that her father is voting for Obama. She never thought she'd see that happen.

The last SUSA poll of Virginia, which had a breakdown by region, showed Obama tied with McCain in the "Shenandoah" region, and leading by eight or more everywhere else. I can't find a map of what that region includes, so I don't know if Charlottesville is lumped in there, but even so, it includes a lot of Appalachia.

What a great connection you've made here. Will we really take that evolutionary step? We'll know soon enough. In the meantime, it's exciting just to think about it.

I've been following the meltdown closely. I set up a time sensitive blog roll for all the financial sites and Poblano. Yours get a quiet placement as the post rate is less intense.

Reports are coming back that the crazy ride down to reality on Wall Street has resulted in close to two Trillion vaporized dollars from 401k plans and retirement accounts.

I'm bettin' that fits your stress definition. 2 trillion dollars of hard earned allocations from chronically underpaid people in mostly soulless sucky corporate jobs owned by piggish multinationals vaporized.

We as a nation do love our money as much as anyone, maybe too much. I have maintained for nearly 30 years, since it was invented, that 401k is a fucked up scam to dodge just paying people more and force them into a bed with the Street.

People thought I was a crank. Most of Wall Street's  growth has been those weekly or biweekly 401k allocations and you can see the volume surge on Friday's end as mutual fund managers clear their desks with the weeks cash load.

And now, all gone. The market is going to where it is supposed to be according to the historical trends of ratio between prices for a stock share and a companies earnings.

That would put the Dow at 6000. A lot more 401k's, pension funds and retirement savings are going to go because Americans have been conned since this horror began with Reagan.

"Dude.. don't put your money in a bank.. that is soo yesterday.. you can get 11 percent from the Overseas Buttrape Mutual Fund."

For most Americans their pitiful investments in these hog troughs are all they really have to call savings. The magnitude of this wipeout makes this grown man cry, even though I don't have a penny of 'exposure' to it.

So yah, even if I were an utter redneck who really believed in the myth of Race, (it's really like trying to argue the merits of a Dachsund over a Collie), and assumed that my version was bitchin', the loss of everything I busted my ass to save from insane swindlers from my own 'race' might just make me rethink the relevance of the Dachshund/Collie argument.

GOP. the Party that Wrecked America.

This might be exactly the reason why Obama's candidacy feels pivotal.

 

Society has its carriers of genetic information, in memes, and it evolves in similar ways. Sometimes new ideas have to be born violently and have to struggle against the immune system of society, which are its prejudices, ingrained habits and hostility to change.

 

I've been thinking this recently in terms of the differences in attitudes to universal health care between the US and Europe. At the birth of the NHS, here in the UK, public opinion was by no means all for the idea. But the Labour governemnt of 1945 had the courage to push through the reforms leading to its creation. Now, over 60 years later the NHS enjoys overwhelming support from the vast majority of the public, and no political party could call for its dissolution and hope to get elected. There is something similar embodied in the campaign of Barack Obama, his election would represent a seismic shift that would be felt all around the western world and would re-arrange our memes for decades to come. And it's in this re-arrangement, this time of uncertainty and chaos, that real change can be wrought.

 

Since I can't help directly, I'm hoping and praying that my US Field HAnd friends keep up their good work. Al - keep fire in their bellies!

I came across a woman who said she didnt like obama. When asked why she mentioned because he was black. She also mentioned that her husband is a union man and that he was 100% for Obama. She agreed that obama was the best candidate for the working man and the union but she was uncomfortable about the whole preacher thing. She didnt like the way they act in the church. My girlfriend started talking about she heard uncomfortable things in church that she didnt agree with and then we pivoted the conversation back to the economy, the bailout, and the flight of the manufacturing jobs..

In the end she said with the way the economy looks she is probably just going to "eat crow and vote for him"

 

Wow, Al...that's amazing.  Well done.  I think there's great potential for healing in this country.  If people can overcome their racism long enough to vote for Obama, and then find out the world didn't end, it could bring about that leap of evolution you write of so eloquently.

Thanks to Tara for helping to get that video out there for us.

http://oxdown.firedoglake.com/diary/546#

This is about the amazing organizing you've been detailing Al, I saw the link at Ambinders to a story by Zach Exley. It's heart-warming and amazing and really makes me think we WILL win Ohio given the work these folks are doing. I'll excerpt, but you all read the whole thing.

Then go at the very least make calls from your home after work.

The Ohio campaign is attempting to build teams in 1,231 campaign-defined "neighborhoods," each covering eight to ten precincts. They are targeting virtually every inhabited square mile of the state. The campaign claimed to have teams in 65% of neighborhoods when I visited in early September. That's risen to 85% coverage at press time--and they are shooting for 100%. In contrast, the Kerry campaign effectively wrote off rural counties, and completely abandoned them in the final few weeks of the campaign in a last minute all-in shift to the cities.

It was a huge risk for the national field program to have paid staff take the time to methodically build volunteer teams instead of rushing directly to spend all their time running voter contact activities themselves. From the point of view of the conventional wisdom of much of the pre-Obama field organizing world, the campaign is actually taking two big risks: first they are risking everything on the effectiveness of masses of volunteers, then they are risking everything again by relying on volunteer teams to lead those masses. What if teams was just a bunch of hippy nonsense? What if it turned out there just weren't that many unpaid activists capable of running high-quality canvasses?

Jeremy Bird, the Ohio general election director and one of the driving forces behind making teams a national strategy, said, "We decided in terms of timeline that [our organizers] would not be measured by the amount of voter contacts they made in the summer--but instead by the number of volunteers that they were recruiting, training and testing. It was much more an infrastructure focus. So there would be no calls from Chicago saying, 'Why haven't you made more calls?!' Instead there would be calls saying, 'Where are your neighborhood team volunteers?' Or, if the numbers seemed high, 'Are they real?' It was a whole shift in mentality that was really, really good."

It is impossible to overstate how counter intuitive this slow-build approach was for Democrats. Even Regional Field Director for Southwest Ohio, Christen Linke Young--who I witnessed in 2004 pushing independently for just this strategy as an Ohio FO in Franklin County--said it was scary to take this patient approach:

"We had a whole month where, on our nightly calls with headquarters, we did not report our voter contact numbers. We only reported our leadership building. I definitely stayed on top of what our voter contact numbers looked like. But headquarters wasn't paying attention to how many voters we registered or how many doors we knocked that day--they were paying attention to how many one-on-one meetings we had, house meetings, neighborhood team leaders recruited, how many people we had convinced to come to this wonderful training in Columbus that we had. Yes, it was definitely scary to see how big our persuasion universe was and know that our first priority was not to just be tearing through that."

I would imagine there will be those at the bottom of the barrel who pull the lever for Obama and never fess up to it.

Self Preservation is a pretty strong motivator. It's akin to there being no Atheists in a Foxhole.

This happened during the WI, back at the end of Feb. A rural Caucasian fellow, archetypal backwater guy in overalls about early 60s is asked who he's going to vote for. He pauses, gets a slightly embarrassed smile on his face and says, " I think I'm gonna  vote for the black boy." Peculiar how changes happen in culture and consciousness. I think both Marx and Hegel thought that changes on the ground happen, born of actual conditions, and consciousness on the societal level follows.

is getting stronger and stronger

 

Paul Tewes and Steve Hidebrand dispatched to FL.

they are setting shop in Miami and Tampa

I smell an Onion headline in the making: "McCain losing Racist Vote." Hee!

 

Great post, Al. I really think the leap in the polls after the debate/bailout week was undecideds finally taking the plunge.

If your thesis prevails, Obama not only wins handily... but evolution truly trumps creationism.

The new ad seems to be targeted at these particular voters, to reassure them

 

 

 

 

... as Ta-Nehisi Coates said the other day over at The Atlantic:

 

http://ta-nehisicoates.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/let_it_come_1.ph...

http://oxdown.firedoglake.com/diary/546#

In my mind this is a transformative election.

The Republicans have destroyed: Main street, Wall street, housing, health care, the military, US's reputation, and most of the economic system of the World.

FDR's New Deal lasted at least a generation, and now 25 years of Reagan's DEREGULATE - TRICKLE DOWN - THE GOVERNMENT AS ENEMY is nearing it's conclusion. 

Obama's TRANSFORMATION will last, 25 years? Hope so.

Beautiful post, Al. Very hopeful. Not only does CNN have a story; NPR, "Talk of the Nation," had over half an hour on racism and voting this afternoon. I listened to NPR during a long drive into and out of San Antonio, gripping the steering wheel in rage, not realizing such a program might have an evolutionary effect. I truly hope you're right. I felt like the one being stressed.

It might have helped if host Neil Cowan hadn't glibly referred to BO's "recent associations with Ayers," or his co-host hadn't referred to BO as a typical politician, "dull and boring," or if the 2:00 PM news hadn't referred to BO's and McLame's whereabouts today and then given a 10-20 second sound bite from the latter's speech with no equal time to our candidate's speech. Or if "All Things Considered" hadn't referred to the neck and neck race in the polls. Does no one else read Nate, Princeton Consortium, or even Pollster.com? What is going on with NPR? Did anyone else hear them this afternoon?

 

Thanks for that embedded ad, Laura, it was powerful.  I don't know if it was reading Al's post and then watching it directly after, but I now have tears running down my face.  Godammit - the number of times I have cried during this election season is totally ridiculous (and I am not a crier)!!  I think it's when I read/hear about Barack's mom - and you know what - from what I understand of her character, reading Dreams from My Father, she would have been totally optimistic about the evolutionary change Al is suggesting.

KD

 

Elizabeth - let them know your thoughts.  I missed today's show.

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I heard the promos for the show and thought immediately of what Al and the Fieldhands would make of it.  I didn't get chance to listen but your report tells me it was exactly what I feared it would be.  What happened to NPR?  They sold out, plain and simple.  I find myself turning them off in disgust more often than not and it has been years since I have donated money. 

Al, wonder why (though we have butted heads, sometimes vituperatively) I keep coming back?  This essay exemplifies why--you are on the cutting edge of political/social thinking, in a very vibrant and dynamic way.   Nice job.  Combinging socio-evolutionary thought with the conundrum of race in US politics is an example of an evolutionary leap in political writing and analysis.

Brilliant.  What you said here is very close to my nascent thoughts on the matter.

Congratulations, nice job.

I will not sleep soundly until Mississippi turns light-blue.

However, my hunch--taking geographical ideas into consideration--is that West Virginia will turn blue before Alabama, Mississippie, and Texas.

Some of the stresses are caused by the ideological extremism that is entailed in the extremist ideology of the US rightwing: tax breaks for the wealthy, massive debt foisted on future generations, and barbaric austerity at home.  The decline of wages and living standards, the decay and fraying of infrastructure, ect.

Simply put, the rightwing Republican ideology is so extreme that to vote for it would be to condone one's own enslavement and impoverishment.

Your thinking points toward an analysis that will comprise the cusp of the progressive evolutionary leap that we are seeing develop in front of our own eyes at this moment.

Nice.   The metaphors you are employing are in every way part of the resurgence that is developing.

Of course, in today's "Palientology", this line of thinking would not be welcomed.   There was a day when humans and dinasours roamed the earth together--until Eve fucked that paradise up by wanting to think.  Even in the creationist narrative, Eve was no Pailin pseudo-feminist.

 

 

 

 

 

W's FCC commissioner, another crony hack like Paulson or 'Heckuvajob Brownie' has repeatedly threatened that pitiful middle mind version of news.

What is 'middle mind', you ask. Why those are the well intentioned if clueless sorts that agonize about oil drilling in Alaska wilderness while buying the SUV they hoped to use to drive there, somehow oblivious to the likliehood that their SUV purchase may well be a factor in dooming the tundra.

The NPR employees want to keep their jobs and the assumed prestige the job implies and like nearly every other overpaid mainstream mnedia shill, they have been skating on the thin ice of the obvious and horrible hoping their more recondite sugar coating of viciousness and catastrophe will be more palatable than the naked foul version one might find at Fawks or ABC.

Let me know when they hire Al and I'll actually pay them some mind. Til then, can you say infotainment and utter cowardly crap? Knew you could.

 

 

 

I've been assuming all along that McCain will indeed benefit from the racist vote, but I'm also betting that those numbers will be more than offset by enhanced turnout among minorities and youth for Obama.  Also, there are plenty of Republicans who are not happy with the McCain/Palin ticket, and will just stay home.

Jean and Elizabeth--my habit is to download Democracy Now and programs from Pacifica's KPFA, however, I do frequently listen to NPR.

These are fake journalists--and, though they are liberals,they try to keep in the middle of the road.  However, their desire to create false symmetry and 'balance' compells them to lean to the right when it comes to seeking out opinions.  Their revenue model ensure that they will carry water for the status quo of corporate domination.

Their demographic are the upper middle classes and the liberal upper ten percent.   The managerial class are their audience.  They work with WP and NYT in developing what they consider timely content.

NPR was horrible on Iraq, and it still is.  Al can testify to their horrid role as propagandists in Latin America.

While there are a few worthwhile programs on NPR, none of their programming concerning domestic or international politics is worth a crap--they simply reinforce State Department conventional wisdom.

Which ever wing of the corporate ruling class is in power, they will do swell.

I give money to Pacifica, community radio, and folks like Narco News--I will never give NPR a dime.  The internet frees me from having to swallow NPR's center-right, pro-corporate propaganda as my only alternative.

All the above said--yes, I admit it, NPR is a degree better than corporate media, but not by much.

NPR is state propaganda that is ingeniously funded by its victims.  Like shopping at Walmart when your poor works toward reinforcing one's impoverishment, giving creedence to NPR's reporting will work to strenghten the corporate hegemony and decrease the democratic potential of our society in general.

Thankfully most of us have alternatives through which to weaken the corporate model of information/propaganda flows.

(My antipathy toward NPR is virulent--when one considers the grotesque disinformation that is employed on the side of tyranny and imperialism with reporting coming from the Americas and the Middle East.   NPR is pathological and cynical. Period.  The historical record backs this assement up, big time.)

 

 

 

Here's a good report (albeit dated in 2004) on NPR titled, "How Public is Public Radio?"

"At least 83 percent of journalists appearing on NPR in June 2003 were employed by commercial U.S. media outlets, many at outlets famous for influencing news- room agendas throughout the country (16 from the New York Times alone, and another seven from the Washington Post ). Only five sources came from independent news outlets like the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the National Catholic Reporter ."

And, 

" Despite the commonness of such claims, little evidence has ever been presented for a left bias at NPR , and FAIR’s latest study gives it no support. Looking at partisan sources—including government officials, party officials, campaign workers and consultants—Republicans outnumbered Democrats by more than 3 to 2 (61 percent to 38 percent). A majority of Republican sources when the GOP controls the White House and Congress may not be surprising, but Republicans held a similar though slightly smaller edge (57 percent to 42 percent) in 1993, when Clinton was president and Democrats controlled both houses of Congress..."

http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=1180

 

I think of the 1992 election of Carol Moseley Braun to the US Sentate from Illinois.  I believe she won but about 10% or so.  I remember a commentator saying there are a lot of white males in suburban Chicago and downstate asking themselves 'did we just vote for a black woman from Chicago?'

 

She later went on to lose re-election (not by much considering some of the poor political choices she made and some scandals she got caught up in) but my point is I tend to side with the catastrophe theorists.

1992 saw a lot of men voting for women for the first time.  It was won of those years were there was a break of sorts.  Suddenly seeing a woman in a position of power didn't seem so bizarre even to men that otherwise might be considered patriarchal or sexist.

Great post, and many great comments.

 

I agree with your premise, but would like to present a counterpoint (one I very much hope does not come to pass).

 

Periods of stress are also times of exctinction, of fear. Periods of stress are times when Dictators come to power, and are welcomed by the people.

 

We've been living this through the 2000's - 9/11 was the amino acid, and the Bush admin kept the stress conditions at maximum. They used this stress to roll back freedoms, gather riches, and attempt to set up a decades long regime.

 

The stresses of the 1930's can explain the evil that rose in the period. We are entering a period of perhaps equal stress -- and we have the McCain campaign exactly stoking the flames of fascism that lead to mass movments of fear and hate. Truly, we are on the cusp.

 

I pray the people -- the community organizers, the people canvassing, calling, donating, talking -- I pray our hope emerges through this "experiment". Evolution, after all, is often not pretty.

The night before hosting about 2 dozen folks at my farm for an Obama meetup back in July, a neighbor dropped by to have a chat. I live in rural Alabama and this guy is off the deep-end on the redneck stereotype chart. The word was out, apparently, that I was having a "political rally" for that Obama, and didn't I know that folks 'round here don't take kindly to n.....? Well, I explained that I think our government needs a change, and I just wanted to meet other folks in the area who felt the same. He ended up saying "damned if you do, damned if you don't", about our political choices. On his way out he kindly extended his fist for pounding - not a common greeting 'round here.

At the meetup the next day, a black family came by - turns out the mom is a co-worker with my mom at the local college library. Their little girl was very shy, but eventually got the courage to hold my hand as we walked over to the chicken coop and I let her feed and pet the hens. She was delighted - and her mom called me later that week to say that her daughter just couldn't quit talking about that day. Gave me the warm and fuzzies.

Al, a popular language blog caught your use of the word "swingest" to describe Ohio. I would have said "swingiest" myself but this does not even merit a mention in that post, LOL.

Al,

I think you have made a really powerful point.  What we are seeing is the collison between two strong forces, racial fear and an economic collapse.

I think you are going to see a decent number of people on election day who walking into that booth hating/fearing black people, pull the lever for Obama and then walk out STILL hating/fearing black people.

For a while now, McCain has tried to turn Obama into the Boogeyman, but in his own way McCain is FAR scarier then Obama ever could be.

I think people see that.  Nov. 4 is going to be real interesting

Very insightful post, Al. I have felt all along that there was something just--right--about the way Obama has been going about things. Part of it is that he's very smart and understands how to organize people and count votes. But I think those who accused him of not being "black enough" were wrong.

When you're asking people to take a chance on you, guilt doesn't work. I entered the workforce in the 1970s, when women were just beginning to break out of the secretary-teacher-beautician-nurse sterotype. (Not that those aren't good and necessary professions.) Computers were still pretty new then; I saw an opportunity and learned how to program them. I supported the women's movement, of course, but was very low key about it in the workplace. I decided early on never to complain about unfairness--and there was a lot of it back then--but instead to simply show people what I could do.

I was convinced that was the way to change minds. When I overheard an older fellow saying, "I never thought a woman could be a good manager, but that little gal who does the computers is pretty darn smart," I knew I was making headway. When the guys seemed to think I should be the one to make coffee, I just smiled and said, "Here, let me show you how to do this--we can take turns."

Obama doesn't talk about race much. It's there, but he's not the one who's going to make an issue of it. He just talks sense, organizes, sticks to his plan, uses his rhetorical skills, and... believes it's possible for a black man to be elected president. The rest of us are starting to believe it too. It's votes that matter, not patronizing words. Those are a way station to a more open way of thinking.

(I don't mean to suggest any equivalency between the experience of white women and black Americans, only to share something I believed worked to change minds.)

This is a historic moment, and for all the trouble I see out there on the horizon, I have to admit... I know hope.

dumb racist lower class voters are not undecided, they are in the McCain column. rich or retiring republicans that are not dumb are there to be picked. either undecided or Republicans. the fear in the financial markets trumps all else. with the VIX signalling panic in the market these people will vote for a green martian if it would stop the bleeding. that is why Obama is now even in the 60+ demographic when he was - 16 a few weeks back. that is the move in old states like FL and PA. he has lots of room to improve.

Looking at the way West Virginia has gotten within single digits of late, a friend made a sage observation:  "People like having paychecks more than they fear people with different skin color."

 

But I do find a 2004 experiment at the University of Texas at Austin to be possibly relevant to the 2008 elections. There, engineers and scientists forced an evolutionary leap on bacteria in a laboratory essentially by "stressing the patient." A small adjustment in amino acids, and, presto, a new mutation was born.

 

The current economic crisis, according to the American Psychologists Association, has stressed eight of ten Americans significantly.

 

Isn't this a sort of like The Shock Doctrine? Or, better said, a population of voters that has developed or is developing a certain amount of immunity, anti-bodies if you like, against this treatment as a result of 9/11, Iraq and Katrina?

 I am right there with you. I am not a crier either.  I have cried this year over our future and this movement more than I care to admit. Mostly tears of joy, one exception, the night of the PA primary. Pure sadness that night.

Tears of joy like I have never experienced before too, the night we won the primary, & the night Barack accepted the nomination.

 I think of the tears of joy, hope and peace on November 4th in late evening when we get back on a track to those things. That's when the real sacrifices for my country will make sense.

Pretty sublime!

Living in Tennessee is not easy. Racism here has always functioned like a nasty bacteria. Hidden in the school nurse's office, lurking in the jails. You literally think you're talking to a normal person, and then they say something that makes you want to flinch. (like when someone coughs in your personal space.) It's real in this red state.

But I swear I see the mutation happening. We have a religious red neck right down the street with an Obama sign I swear to god! What is so wonderful about this theory is that Palin's behavior works right into the analysis. In addition to the economic disaster, she, the lightning rod for contempt, is stressing the patient too. I'm not kidding, here in Tennessee, I'm hearing unexpected people say she's crazy. As Biden is pointing out, she's invoking violence. Of course McCain's agitated performance last night fits nicely too doesn't it? He was hostile. Pacing, not sitting, name calling and refusing to shake hands. Stressing the collective conscious patient.

I'm working on a project to restore some voter rights for felons with another Tennessee fieldhand, and also very good friend. The guy I've been trying to help has an outlook that is absolutely undaunted. I'm not even sure I can restore his rights due to a provision in the rules. No matter, he is driven by the catalyst Obama has presented us with. He is resolute to educate others about restoration and fast. I talked to a homeless man at a demonstration last week. He's driven too. He used my phone to call his cousin. He is motivated to return home and straighten out his affairs. The racially fearful are agitated, the disenfranchised are awake. I can feel this evolutionary leap occurring, and it is enlightenment. We are starting to stand upright, and public opinion shows it.

 

should empty his vast coffers and buy out 15 minutes of the prime time teevee, including fox news and other RW stations, on 3rd November night and address the nation about where the US is now economically, how it got there and who got it there.

That would be money well-spent and that last minute shock would force the knuckle-draggers, the dead-enders and the so-called undecideds (sheesh...) to think before they pull the lever next day.

amk

 Glad your still around , I love it when you are brilliant. Tonight you were.

Don't let my comment go to your head, your still overly-wordy in a 'Noam Chomsky libertarian socialist' meme-- just saying,' and saying it with lots of love.

Christi

Al Giordano- Tonight my 29 y/o Son read your blog for the first time; he read your wikipedia too, I think you have a new fieldhand. Lovin it? You betcha!

His words: "This guy is really smart". 

He identified his close circle of friends as to how they were voting. Results: 5 Obama, 2 McCain.

Update: Pam Hilliard Owens, my son, our newest fieldhand is about to become a english teacher-moving to WA state, I am on him to give me free lessons, via online here :-)

 

 

 

Francis Fukiyama is one of the neo-con intellectuals that helped frame the Bush years and American Empire beginning with his "End of History" prediction upon the dissolution of the Soviet Union. We could all look forward to nothing but Reagan/Thatcher capitalism taking over the world forever and all competing models were dead and gone. He has since been trying to distance himself from the socio/economic results of his ideology.

In the October 13, 2008 issue of Newsweek Fukiyama voices similar opinions to Al's thoughts of a quantum or evolutionary leap in political consciousness with election 2008. He's still right wing and "trying to restore faith in our brand", but this bit is interesting.

The Fall of America, Inc.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/162401

All this suggests that the Reagan era should have ended some time ago. It didn't partly because the Democratic Party failed to come up with convincing candidates and arguments, but also because of a particular aspect of America that makes our country very different from Europe. There, less-educated, working-class citizens vote reliably for socialist, communist and other left-learning parties, based on their economic interests. In the United States, they can swing either left or right. They were part of Roosevelt's grand Democratic coalition during the New Deal, a coalition that held through Lyndon Johnson's Great Society in the 1960s. But they started voting Republican during the Nixon and Reagan years, swung to Clinton in the 1990s, and returned to the Republican fold under George W. Bush. When they vote Republican, it's because cultural issues like religion, patriotism, family values and gun ownership trump economic ones.

This group of voters will decide November's election, not least because of their concentration in a handful of swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Will they tilt toward the more distant, Harvard-educated Obama, who more accurately reflects their economic interests? Or will they stick with people they can better identify with, like McCain and Sarah Palin? It took an economic crisis of massive proportions from 1929 to 1931 to bring a Democratic administration to power. Polls indicate we may have arrived again at that point in October 2008.

I have no one to call right now, don't want to freak out my mom [who's getting stalker-esque, politically-motivated calls herself right now], sister or husband [who has to be with his sick mom 45 minutes away], so gonna put it on you guys.  I just experienced that "stressing" of the electorate first hand.  Or, not so much the stress of the economic crisis as the avenue to vent it that the McCain/Palin camp and those cooperating in the media, etc have given those with prejudices.  I live in one of the most liberal neighborhoods in the bluest city in the bluest state and yet a group of young guys walking past my house just now thought it was perfectly fine to rip my Obama sign out of the ground and dump my recycling out all over my front walk and lawn.  At 10:30pm, on a well-lit, really busy street, making all kinds of noise, then sauntering along on their merry way.  They ripped my neighbors sign off it's framing too, while leaving everyone else's recycling alone so I know it was all about this election.  I wondered when allowing hate-filled words would lead to actions.  I saw about the guy in London who was shot for wearing an Obama shirt.  So, this is nowhere on that magnitude, but I know I feel scared sitting here right now.  I called 911 & just asked that a patrol car chat to these guys & scare them out of vandalizing any other properties [again, they were taking their time, so shouldn't be hard for them to catch up to them].  But what if it's not too hard for them to figure out which house called the cops?  I've got my two babies in this house.  Why should the death throws of "the powers that be" lead to my being scared for the physical safety of my children asleep in their beds?

Keynes affirmed the central role of liberal ethics in economics -- and urged the progressive archbishop to speak out forcefully on issues of economic and social justice. This was, after all, an economist who, on a different occasion, had said modern capitalism was "absolutely irreligious, and without internal union, without much public spirit, often, though not always, a mere congeries of possessors and pursuers," and who cursed "the hag-ridden" worship of "the money-motive."

"Keynes instead foresaw a time when "the love of money as a possession -- as distinguished from the love of money as a means to the enjoyments and realities of life -- will be recognized for what it is, a somewhat disgusting morbidity, one of those semi-criminal, semi-pathological propensities which one hands over with a shudder to the specialists in mental disease."

Keynes was just as unambiguous about the role we could expect of conservatives in helping reach such a world: "Conservatism leads nowhere; it satisfies no ideal; it conforms to no intellectual standard; it is not even safe, or calculated to preserve from spoilers that degree of civilisation which we have already attained."

Moreover, he left no doubt about how their resistance to liberal reforms ought to be addressed. "There is no reason," he wrote, "why we should not feel ourselves free to be bold, to be open, to experiment, to take action, to try the possibility of things. And over against us, standing in the path, there is nothing but a few old gentlemen tightly buttoned up in their frock coats, who only need to be treated with a little friendly disrespect and bowled over like ninepins."

Easley told Rachel that he anticipates a "reverse Bradley effect."  He cited his barber, who listens to the people in his chair every day, as telling him that there are a lot of North Carolinians who won't wear Obama buttons or tell the world they support him, but will quietly slip in to the voting booth and cast their ballots for Obama.

This is exactly what I have been telling my own dear Chicken Little, my husband Norberto.

Josselyn, you did the right thing.  Intervention with these young hooligans NOW by the police will scare them into modifying their behavior, which left unaddressed, would possibly have escalated into something you should rightly fear.  You are not the one who did wrong.  Let those who violated your private property be the ones to fill their pants while facing the glare of a patrolman's spotlight.

 Stand tall and firm with a cell phone in hand, Enough!!!!! Don't be afraid, they are the cowards and hopefully the law of the land will prevail.

 

And for all of us, working in NV,

"... In Nevada, another Republican state that Obama is trying to move into the Democratic column, Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 80,000, according to figures posted by the state in September, before the voter registration deadline last Saturday. Four years ago, Republicans held a registration edge of 4,431."  Here is the link

Just before I came home and read this post, I had an identical conversation with one of my neighbors. We live in Western North Carolina, Appalachia central. This particular gentleman is a member in good standing of the one of the older families here. Solid citizen, would fit into the 'good ole boy' stereotype. He's not rich by any means, but works hard, solid churchgoer and is a 'yellow dog democrat' to the core

Several weeks ago, he told me, and this is a direct quote, that "it won't be a proud day in my life, but I'm going to have to vote for a black man". Today, he told me that he felt strongly that Obama would do fine around here - that a lot of people wouldn't admit they were going to vote for him, but times were getting too bad for them not to. They'd go in, vote for Obama in secret, but never admit they had done it.

So not twenty mins after that conversation I see Al has come to the same conclusion. I think he may be right..

 

Josselyn, I'm so sorry the young men took your Obama signs down and vandalized your property. I doubt if the young men will come back but if you're feeling unsafe you might want to leave your signs down. That's not being a coward. Do whatever you need to feel safe in your home and in your neighborhood. Obama will still win particularly because you live in a Blue State and in a blue neighborhood. Actually I think that fact probably enhanced your feelings of fear because it's so unexpected. I live in Seattle in super liberal Congressman Jim McDermott's district. Truman in 1948 once made a jab about "the 47 states & the Soviet of Washington". And yet in my former neighborhood one of my neighbors would put up her Socialist Party USA signs and some years they were vandalized. Do whatever you need to feel safe and do keep us posted.

Must read -- a beautiful, detailed article by Zack Exley, on the ground in Ohio: Obama's neighborhood teams and the power of inclusion and respect

As Al says above: plus a movement.

A study which shows jumps in evolution!  Another study which might be relevant to this race about race shows the far reaching effect of the Pygmalion Effect.  We all know that a teacher's expectations of a student's performance can influence outcome. But did you know that a researcher's expectations of rats can influence outcome?  Tis true.  When scientists were told that the rats they had were of smarter strain, those rats outperformed the rats given to another set of scientists who were told their rats weren't so bright. The rats were the same.

Expectations influence outcomes.  So what are you going to expect from the American people?  

(I got this from a November 2004 "Science Journal" column written by Sharon Begley in the Wall Street Journal. I can not link to it because it is archived.) 

Hey, just wanted to drop off this very nice piece by Zack Exley about how Obama is using his campaign structure to create something that will endure long after the campaign is over.

All's quiet so fingers crossed.  My mom got a brick through her front window 40 years ago when she lived in Lubbick, Texas for standing up to this kind of crap so I'll be damned if these tools make me take down a frickin' sign.  But thanks for letting me know it's ok if I do.  :-)  And, yes, Nancy, I think it's partly the shock of the unexpected.  Mostly I'm just outraged that people are being made to feel - by a candidate for the highest office - that it's a-ok to publicly, proudly spew their vile crap, act on violent impulse, etc.  It is like what Nick wrote about.  When things are bad, people want someone to blame.  That's human nature.  It's the use & abuse & unleashing of that impulse by those that are supposed to be at the top of our society that sickens me.  Maybe I should send Gov. Palin a little note, thanking her for making me fear for my kids tonight.  Anyway, thanks again, everyone.  And, as ever, thanks, Al, for another amazing piece.

And speaking of which, for those who don't regularly check DailyKos: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/8/21251/8186/934/624523

To invoke critical race theory in light of Al's post, it's not just white working class folks who need to evolve, but the vast swath of the middle and upper classes who have deluded themselves into not recognizing, in a thousand little ways, they too are guilty, even as they accuse others of the transgression. The narrative on critical race theory, as I understand it, not pretending to be an expert, is that the system itself reinforces a breakdown along racial lines since the law is written, interpreted and meted out to benefit the dominate race -- it's part of the fabric of the system.

So if you just go along to get along, you are likely to find yourself, black or white or of any racial/ethnic background, positively or negatively reinforced in ways that make it easier to herd yourself into the various racial corrals that have been created.

For example, if you're white, in a functioning racial system, you are afforded certain privileges that are demonstratable statistically but not easily sacrificed personally — maybe better loan rates; more job security; easier access to quality education.

If you are black, that reality automatically sets up a tension over skin color, making it more difficult to avoid the racial corral as well. [And then heap a history of horrors on top of that present condition.]

These are realities, but assigning blame soon turns into an endless finger-pointing game, even if you are among the enlightened middle class who does not view themselves as racially inclined. By the mere act of living within that institutional framework, you effectively embrace the racism.

But once the system starts to break down, the fences creating those corrals start to fall apart, and the opportunity for movement, if you will, comes about — because the benefits of being racially inclined no longer are reinforced in the same way by the system. And in cases where the system penalizes to reinforce racism, that pain is disbursed across color lines far more broadly in a systemwide breakdown. 

The current financial crisis, and how it is being dealt with, at least the perceptions -- Main Street screwed/Wall Street saved as savings evaporate across color lines, as job security evaporates across color lines, as educational opportunites disappear across color lines -- is a sign of that breakdown, of the racial underpinnings of law unraveling in front of our eyes (for working class and middle class folks alike). In that world, those who have an inkling of rationality and self-preservation, even if they retain vestages of the subliminal institutional indoctrination that encourages racism, start to see that it really no longer benefits them. Being racist in this case hurts you; overcoming it offers a chance for a way out of ruin that staying in the corral guarantees.

Those are the people that will swing Obama's way, it seems to me, if appealed to with reason. Those who do not open themselves up to reason [which is not the same a book learnin'] are beyond the reach of evolution -- short of the rapture.

But maybe I over analyize?

I wouldn't consider Asheville a microcosm of the rest of western North Carolina. It's called "the Paris of the South." Also, most residents of the Tar Heel state will sort of chuckle about the "funny" types who live there. But yes, I do think race won't be as big a factor in the election as some people think it will.

Someone, maybe Chris Matthews, talked about the higher ups in the public university system sort of dragging North Carolina not just into the 21st century, but near the forefront. I think that is probably an accurate description of the process. The Research Triangle is as hip, or progressive, a place to live as anywhere in the country.

And here we go...what appears to be the possible and typical October Surprise...Because to some people (McCain/Palin), the struggles of American's really isn't important-it's all about winning and taking the country down with you. Get ready to fight to the end. This really will be the toughest four weeks of the election as Al stated in his previous post.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/McCain_camp_making_new...

I've got the bends from The Field withdrawal. Arrrgh. Caught debate. McCain needs a roto-rooter. He's through. But only if ground teams work full force until the 4th (Nov.)

Apparently there's an election up here, which I have no choice but to watch. Stephane Dion is the Liberal running for PM who is benefitting loosely from falsely applied disses a la anti-McCain (culled from watching US cable) directed towards his Conservative opponent Harper, the present PM.

Problem is Stephane Dion is an idiot. Profoundly so. An idiot with a provincial, not international, grasp of economics and global warming science. He should be so lucky to have 1/4 the brain power of Barack Obama. He doesn't.

I am no fan of the smug current Conservative PM, who is aloof and off-putting, although an economist by trade. The NDP guy has appeal. But Dion is reckless with his self-satisfied lack of knowledge. When I can argue him from my chair on the facts in front of my teevee, consistently, there's something wrong. And someone should teach him English grammar.

=======================

Liked The Hundredth Monkey post, Al. I miss you guys.

A few thoughts:

Josselyn: I understand your situation; I agree that you should take your signs down until things cool down. It is just because of the hate spewed by candidates of a national party that these stoops feel validated to do such things. That is why it is so dangerous.

Allan: We hear you about working just as hard for the down-ticket candidates. In TX, that is what the O campaign is doing...people think he'll never win TX; that is not the point. The O-man will change TX politics for now and in the future. Allan work as hard as you can to defeat that stupid Prop 8 and remember this PFLAG mom's got your back.

Here in Detroit, there aren't as many O signs as you would expect because "who are we trying to convince"? smile...but my heart swells with happiness when I drive around the "red" areas surrounding Detroit and see tons of Obama signs and bumper stickers and zero McCain! My favorite was on a car being driven by the stereotypical little white-haired white lady and her little white-haired white lady passenger!

As Al always tells us...polls, schmolls!  Keep working for O and all of the progressive down-ticket candidates...get people to the polls early...take the day off work on the 4th to help monitor the polls, even if you're in a "blue" area to keep those lines moving and "educate" people about their rights...

Love you guys, and I know you love me back!

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Thank you for the link to that DKos diary.  I'm frightened by it, and grateful I watched the clip of Donna Brazile first - so I could go back and watch it again, and again.  I tried to find you on the Field Hands website - if you aren't there, please join - so you have a group of people (me, Christi, Amy, Pam, Allan, lots more wonderful people!) you can immediately call or email if you ever feel that kind of stress again!  i speak from experience, when you need support, encouragement, a little extra courage: call a Field Hand.  We've got your back, as Al would say!!!!

And, I also would suggest, if it happens again (which I hope it won't) take down the sign for awhile.  Where ever you are, we'll have a Field Hands book party near you and put it up again after President Obama is in office.

says about Georgia is true ?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/9/43319/1832/703/624770

On checking, I found that GA last time voted democratic was in 1992 for Bill's 1st term and not for his 2nd term.

amk

@ Alexa,

That diatribe against Dion was totally out of place, not only because most people here aren't Canadian (I'm a dual citizen), but it seems to me to contradict a major spirit of Al's post here.  Dion is not Obama, and comparisons are unfair.  He is still a credible leader, and smarter than most.  Many economists have praised his green shift as economically sound.  Canada is not free from racism, and from your comment about his learning English grammar, it's evident we still have a long way to go in dealing with the French/English divide here.  I wonder how good your French is.

For Americans who are not familiar with the Canadian political landscape, we currently have a Conservative government in power in a minority government.  Harper, the Conservative leader, called this totally unnecessary election, just two years after the last one, which was shortly after the previous one, because he thought he could get a majority.  We have a Conservative because the center-to-left territory is divided several ways: Liberal (more center than left), NDP (Social Democrats), Green Party, and the Quebec Bloc Party.  Harper thought he could squeak this election in before the economy tanked.  I guess it hit a bigger iceberg than he saw coming.  I think the Liberals are right to tie him to Bush's anchor. 

You will love the girls, Michelle included.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/9/45146/1970/672/624777

amk

I remember this incident well. McCain speaking at a fund raiser for a right wing hate group in Oregon, preceded by a speaker who praised abortion clinic bomber.

http://www.blueoregon.com/2008/10/john-mccains-as.html

Remember that recurring skit from SNL?  That's what I've been feeling like.  So, here's some flashback humor to make up for it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SDHxaYhqAo

Just substitute McCain campaign for Clinton campaign.

And thanks for linking that DNC video, amk.  I didn't bother opening it on Kos when I saw it; so glad you got me to watch it.

Suzy - you're absolutely right.  I should join the Fieldhands.  Been meaning to since it's inception.  Just hadn't gotten around to thinking of what image I'd like to use to represent my beloved Buffalo, NY [since Al really wanted everyone to get an image up].  No more procrastinating.  That really is the better venue for this sort of stuff anyway.  Thanks again for the support, everyone.

BTW, did you all see that DKos/Research 2000 had Obama polling back up from +8 on Tuesday to +12 for Wed [post debate]?!?!  Nice!

p.s. [edit] Someone asked about why sometimes links don't come through ok.  I think it's if you don't "space" after pasting in, or go back and add additional text, it throws it off.  I'm trying to get in the habit of "previewing comment" to make sure links are active prior to posting.  Hope that helps.

Josselyn - great, welcome to Field Hands.  There are still quite a few of us without our pictures up yet - you are welcome what ever image you want to use ;)

About voters' motivations:

In my native country, Austria, the extreme right had a revival in the late 80ies (and recently again). Reason for that was the governing coalition of the two largest parties, the Social-Democrats and the Christian-Conservatives. These two parties had somewhere around 70-75% of the votes and were ruling completely unashamed. People were outraged but helpless.

When the elections came, the extreme Right under their charismatic leader Joerg Haider had at one time 25%! Were one in four Austrians Nazis? Who voted for this guy? Whomever you asked, nobody would admit. A joke was making its rounds: "What do voting for Haider and masturbating have in common? Everybody does it but nobody admits it!"

What happened was that people who would NEVER identify with the extreme right and their policies voted for them in order to send the ruling class a message. That's how they got 25% although their radical hardcore base is 8-9% max. The rest are people unsatisfied with the status quo.

And I am sure that a lot of people think America's ruling class too is in dire need of a very clear message.

 

Obama 51 McCain 43 http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_1009535.pdf

Once again the GOP has hammered working and middle-class people.  Once again the GOP distracts voters with non-economic issues while picking their pockets.  Maybe this time those voters will notice and care.

Death will cull the old racists from my baby boomer generation and earlier.  What's not so inevitable is that young people, oblivious to race, will organize and join the electorate.  This is something Harvard's Marshall Ganz has worked at both understanding and doing since his 1960s work with the United Farm Workers.  Ganz has long asked how progressives might repeat the mobilization that brought Bobby Kennedy victory in the 1968 California primary.

Plaudits to Al for *explaining* much of this.  And kudos to Obama and the organizers for *doing* this in 2008.

This is an enormously intelligent and thoughtful piece of writing.  Wish it or a more concise version of it could find its way to a much wider audience--say, on the op-ed pages of local-regional newspapers published in Appalachia.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/ohiopol...

phew...thanks, Alexa. I wasn't sure how to vote on that one! I hate voting for blabbering idiots with accents!

Al -

Your hint to watch WV might be paying off.  The dart throwers over at ARG are giving Obama a +8 in West Virginia.  Now if a good pollster confirms it, McCain could be in deep trouble.

Barath, LOL. Please provide the link to the dart throwers

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Also has Montana at only 5pt difference [but Minnesota at only +1] and O +9 in NH...for what ARG's worth.

Apropos this topic, dKOS has a relevant diary:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/9/114911/412?detail=f

Especially read the comments for lots of anecdotes.

KD

Not really a swing state.  More like an indicator state.  If McCain loses WV, it is over.  It wouldn't even be that close. It is very hard to see McCain losing WV while winning PA, OH, or VA because if he has lost WV he simply will not hit the numbers that he needs in western VA, SE Ohio or SW PA to win those states.  NC is probably gone too, though NC might be less strongly correlated with WV than its closest neighbors.  In any case, McCain isn't playing enough offense to lose OH, VA, and PA.  

I was enjoying this AP story on 'Rednecks for Obama' until I got to this part:

"To an important degree, however, race is still the elephant in the polling booth, experts say, and according to a recent Stanford University poll, Obama could lose six points on election day due to his color."

Of course, this is a distortion of the actual results of the AP/Stanford race poll. Here, the author is attempting to hype the mythical Bradley Effect, suggesting that racism could cost Obama 6 points from his current margin. However, the poll merely said that Obama never had this support and it was not clear whether any Democrat would have ever had access to this 6%.

and this Yahoo! news headline just now:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081009/pl_afp/usvoteobamarednecks

KD

Link #1: Micah Sifrey on Zack Exley on "The New Organizers"

Link 1a: The Zack Exley article, The New Organizers, Part 1: What's really behind Obama's ground game

Win or lose, "The New Organizers" have already transformed thousands of communities—and revolutionized the way organizing itself will be understood and practiced for at least the next generation. [...] This article focuses on the field program's innovative "neighborhood team" structure and the philosophy of volunteer management underlying it that is best summarized by the field campaign's ubiquitous motto: "Respect. Empower. Include."

Link #2: Nieman Watchdog publishes the remarks of John Wolcott, winner of the first-ever awarding of the I.F. Stone medal for Journalistic Independence.

Why, in a nutshell, was our reporting different from so much other reporting? One important reason was that we sought out the dissidents, and we listened to them, instead of serving as stenographers to high-ranking officials and Iraqi exiles. I'm afraid that much the same thing may have happened on Wall Street. Power and money and celebrity, in other words, can blind you.

While 538.com is must reading for me each day, I have found occasions to disagree with Nate Silver's projections (not mathematical, but cognitive). This is one of them.

While it is true that the more voters you have in your column, the fewer there are to convert to your cause, that is looking at the undecided pool only.

This election cycle, I am finding more and more of my Republican friends, at least those who are willing to think, increasingly deserting the McCain ticket. There are still some of those that will be turned off in the dying days of the campaign. For sure a fraction of them will not vote for Obama, and will sit it out. A smaller fraction will vote for Obama. But the net effect will be a much larger victory for Obama - whether you look at the popular votes, or even on a electoral college basis.

I don't think Nate is correct on the Obama ceiling.

Al, your ongoing thesis that the McCain campaign is incompetent, mistake-prone, pea-green goof machine gets yet another data point via their newly announced housing bailout proposal. In normal times, this kind of "simple mistake" would sail over the heads of many voters, but in the current situation of bailout-piled-on-bailout, proposing to use taxpayer money to save mortgage lenders on Wall Street is one hell of a whopper. Obama jumped on it. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=3105288&page=1

I apologize if this has already been posted, but it is kind of insane that there is this much of a clusterfuck when it comes to the most basic democratic process in this country. It is baffling that there is no real oversight on voter purging, and everyone who is part of the process seems to be clueless. I knew it was bad but I didn't know it was THIS bad:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/us/politics/09voting.html

Some excerpts:

 

States have been trying to follow the Help America Vote Act of 2002 and remove the names of voters who should no longer be listed; but for every voter added to the rolls in the past two months in some states, election officials have removed two, a review of the records shows.

The six swing states seem to be in violation of federal law in two ways. Michigan and Colorado are removing voters from the rolls within 90 days of a federal election, which is not allowed except when voters die, notify the authorities that they have moved out of state, or have been declared unfit to vote.

In three states — Colorado, Louisiana and Michigan — the number of people purged from the election rolls since Aug. 1 far exceeds the number who may have died or relocated during that period.

On a more related note, I find it interesting that as the economy worsens, it is Obama that America is finding comfort in, and not McCain - to me this suggests that most of the country is well aware that Obama and his policies are the superior choice, and yet still need an international crisis to be pushed into voting in their own self-interest. I hope you are right about the evolution, Al, and that this evolution will change along with it the priorities of the electorate for a generation or longer.

NC - Obama 50 McCain 47 http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2... Indiana - McCain 49 McCain 47 http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2...

It turns out, thanks to our national news media, I learned that Barack Obama may in fact be black. What kills me is that 3 weeks ago, I wrote here, "Wow, the way Obama is handling this crisis shows that he's going to win!" Al returned, "it's a long race," and I agreed with, "of course you know they'll have 'why hasn't he won already?', and 'he has black children!'". First, we got Ron Fournier. Now, we have this. This is just disgusting how it's being reported.

in its 75-year history.

The Illinois senator is ‘‘the only possible choice to lead the country,’’ editors wrote in the November issue, on newsstands Oct. 14

snip

‘‘Bushism must be ripped out, root and branch, everywhere it has been established, or else the presidential election of 2008 is a worthless exercise in futility,’’ the editors said.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/elections/1210136,esq100808.article

amk

Don't get too excited yet about the ARG poll showing Obama up in WV. ARG polls are very erratic; they get some things right but produce a lot of outliers. If it's confirmed by a more reliable pollster, there will be reason to celebrate, but for now, it's better to assume it's just noise (and keep working, of course!)

Obama 56 McCain 40

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election

N.B - My post above has an error. Indiana is McCain 49 Obama 47

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111049/Obamas-Race-May-Much-Plus-Minus.aspx

I checked white supremacist website st*rmfront.com a few months ago to see how they were taking recent events. There was a who are you voting for poll on the site where 25% were voting Obama, so the Onion style headline might be true. Although some of this was because they wanted to start a race war. I also learned that David Duke endorsed Ron Paul so I'll be looking out for spikes of support for the good doctor in certain counties.

What's happening to the financial markets pushes upward the "ceiling" on Obama's support. Today the market fell big time closing in the 8500 range. Americans are pissed at what the Republicans have done to us.

He is buying 30 solid minutes of prime time on CBS. Negotiating with other stations too.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/9/104947/108/482/624967 

Go Obama. Bury the MF's.

amk

lol.  I know your initials also stand for Attack the MSM Kontinuously. 

After today's events, is it possible that we might need to have Obama take over before January 21, 2009? 

Bush appears to be deeply embroiled in watching the baseball playoffs right now and then football... Who has TIME for the economy and those whining people out there?

               

hate the level of journalism that I see in US today. I love good journalists and reporters. That's the reason Al is seeing my money being pried away from my normally tight fists.

Looks like another late-nighter for me.

Whaddayaknow, it is that infamous "3.00 am" here, right now.

....

And Bush is doing whaaat ? SOAB.

amk

Obama 50 McCain 47

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election

It's nothing but Ayers all over the MSM. Has the Obama campaign reeled that back in in the hopes that the McCain attacks will backfire? The zen masters of the Obama campaign sure can mystify. All about the polling, I guess. If we see by Monday that a full week of Ayers fretting hasn't budged the polls, we'll have our answer. Just frustrating to sit back and watch the MSM spew garbage. And today we have Palin asserting on Laura Ingrahm's radio show that Obama will "diminish the prestige of the United States presidency" (from Steve Schmidt's mouth to Sarah Palin's ear). The Republican party is really just a stinking sewer.

Here's an interesting graph I found here.

I don't agree with what Al wrote here earlier that the bailout/crisis is a side show. I believe it's THE show. The efforts to "bail out" the financial/market system will fail, because it's much larger, faster and more complex than the states trying to save it. Obama is, imo, on the right track with his green energy independence policy. But more importantly, I believe that community organizing, i.e. building communities that are resilient against these crises, will be the way of the future. I hope they're working on a plan on how to continue the impressive work they started in that field once he's in office.

Just wanted to make sure Al knew his tanning bed story continues to evolve and spread... this time in last week's New Yorker: http://www.newyorker.com/talk/2008/10/06/081006ta_talk_kurutz

[worth checking just for the art]

And to make it doubly interesting for me, personally, is the angle being an interview with the head of the Indoor Tanning Associations, Dan Humiston - a Buffalo native who's currently running for Congress as an independent!  As if we Buffalonians didn't have enough of an image problem!

I lurk here mostly but I am wondering---the McCain Palin rallies are becoming scary and they are realy stoking a mosnter IMHO. I take Al's analysis to heart but I also think this kind of incitement is dangerous and needs to be called out. So my question to you all is---can we do anything? Write to newspapers? Our representatives in washington? What sort of organized action will get attention to the fact that they are promoting incetment at their rallies and doing NOTHING about it. Ideas?

I think the previously referenced IN poll was old.  Today's Ras poll had O down 7.

 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2...

I'm working my behind off here in VA, but I am feeling cautiously optimistic that a certain group of people with prejudices, fears, and even latent racism will indeed vote for Barack Obama.  It is difficult not to like him once you've "met" him, and more and more people are "meeting" him through the debates, through canvassing, through ads, and through simple osmosis over time.  Couple that with Barack's crystal clear, unwavering message on the middle class and working people (and McCain's cluelessness), and I believe we may be seeing the makings of an electoral landslide. 

We haven't heard from you since yesterday... hope all is well...

 

kathleen

I've been thinking about this post all day.  My gut tells me you may be onto something even as some of my AA boomer life experiences resist the idea.  But I've been reading quite a few antedotal stories about the 'racist' person who has decided to vote for O-man for the past several weeks.  It makes me want to cry with joy at the mere POSSIBILITY that something - anything -could trump racism.

@Anon 7:05  I suspect the McCain campaign has gotten the memo to tone it down a bit - at least it seems that way based on what I've read today about the rallies. And I don't believe the American public will tolerate anything approaching a KKK railly (inciting violence).  As a country, we've been there, done that and have the t-shirts and scars to prove it.  I think the McPalin rallies will drive even more from the dark side to Obama.  It may be scary to some, but I truly believe the FBI is on the case on this issue - after all they've had plenty of practice infiltrating both left wing and racial right-wing organizations.

I think McInsane will just continue to prove to the hockey moms and Joe SixPacks that he's erractic, dangerous and the risky candidate.  He's like the evil Terminator in the second movie.  The McPalins are flalling in the vat and everytime they morph into another (stolen) persona they're losing more of themselves so by Nov. 4th nothing will be left.

This is OUR moment, our time.  It's destiny.

 

 

 

It's been a long time - on any site - since I've seen such an excellent - informative thread - congrats to all above.

I've got a problem with this "tipping point" and we have "seen the light" BS. I'm older than most of you - 62 and I've been involved in politics since I was a young teen.

I remember Reagan - I remember his first campaign for President - AND that man WAS FREAKIN' CRAZY - SH*T BAT CRAZY. I remember my friends saying we gotta stop him. I said - let the guy talk - surely the people can't be that f*cking stupid that they'd vote for what he's talking about - LISTEN to what that guy is SAYING! Nobody did - they just listened to HOW he said it.

Today most American's STILL think Reagan was a GREAT PRESIDENT. I KNOW he was Sh*t Bat CRAZY. It's taken 25+ years of "The Government is the ENEMY - DEREGULATE - TRICKLE DOWN" for the greatest country in the world to be reduced to MORAL, ETHICAL and ECONOMIC bankrupcy.

WE - the Sh*t Bat Crazy - STUPID - people of these United States of America have done this to ourselves. AND - EVEN NOW - VERY FEW even understand what has happened or WHY.

President Obama - your assignment if you accept it is to MAKE THE PEOPLE UNDERSTAND - UNDERSTAND - WHY we are in this mess and then lead us out of it. We must UNDERSTAND WHY - so we never get so Sh*t Bat Crazy AGAIN!

To quote my Jewish friends -"NEVER AGAIN!"

The headline is Cindy McCain: Obama Campaign Dirtiest Ever.

The article doesn't provide any argument she makes to make her case. And the article basically refutes it completely by quoting the Wisconsin Advertising Project numbers showing McCain's advertising campaign is completely negative. It also completely dispels her "cold chill" comment.

The unflattering photo of her is a nice bonus too. Looks to me like CBS is not buying their garbage any more.

to get that effing "balance".

The correct headline would have been

"Cindy McCain's claim about Obama's campaign proven false".

amk

Obama 52 McCain 44

http://strategicvision.biz/political/florida_poll_101008.htm

Another thing to watch out there that I've seen popping up on rightwing sites and now at TPM, is the right is trying to hang the entire financial meltdown on Barney Frank and Chris Todd...

Received a tweet that he's having internet connection problems...he'll check in soon!

We love ya, man!

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

James, in rightwing talk radio land the meme is that it was ACORN, Obama, and community organizers that caused this melt-down.  Incredible, but true.

The fact is that it was the careless deregulation and greed that has caused this crisis.  But I have heard more than one Bubba, low-info voter eat up these rightwing talking points.  They put it in their crack-pipe, smoked it up, and now they are frightened and delusional.  Look for some kooky stuff to surface in these last three weeks.

Obama is performing in a competent, stellar fashion, and I am looking forward to his half-hour promotional appearance on the big corporate networks.

To mirror Al's socio-evolutionary analysis--we are seeing the stresses change and challenge the dominant ideology right before our very eyes.

Anecdote: I talked to a lawn guy yesterday.  Typical Bubba dressed in camo attire.  This guy is anti-union and stridently decries any function of government other than national defense.  More tax cuts for the most wealthy people, etc.   This thinking is anti-human and extremist.  Very frightening.  Black folk, Latinos, and Jews figure into his psychic economy as villians.

The fact that there are some low-info, rural, white folks that recognize the extremism of the far rightwing ideology (built on mis-information, distortion, delusion, and lies) is a sign of incredible hope.

We are watching the melt-down of the rightwing, anti-human, nature-raping, pathological ideologies implode in front of our faces.  Now is not the time to shrink from challenging the de-humanizing ideology that configures the majority of folk into corporate drones and fattened, dumbed-down wage slaves willing to die in imperialist wars.   This is Thantos on steroids.

We need to stab this anti-human ideology in the heart and organize toward more sane politics and social arrangements.

Lastly, community organizing will be KEY toward saving the United States and the world.   No passive consumerism and apathy.

YES WE CAN--and YES WE WILL

 

 

 

 

Thanks Pam - I was beginning to wonder if he'd made a mistake & gone to a Palin rally!  Actually, if I ever need a laugh while I look at my IRA account, I think of Al at a Palin rally!  Try it, it's great fun.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/americas/7661872.stm

amk

I hope Al is having some time to work on his book research. That would probably be a better use of his time than satisfying our  election ADD.

Think it's interesting that Obama plans to chat with us on Oct 29th? Since nothing is ever done by accident in this Campaign, it's interesting to me that he would choose the anniversay of Black Tuesday, Oct 29, 1929.

 

Caught this qoute at HuffPo this morning. It's appropo on this thread.

Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell says a drowning man doesn't care what color the person is who throws him a life preserver.

"This election is going to be decided when a husband and wife sit at a kitchen table, or a single parent sits at the kitchen table, looks at their bills and figures out who is most likely to help them with their financial condition," Rendell said. "If the answer's Barack Obama, nobody's going to care whether he's black, green, orange, purple, fuchsia or whatever."

Jed has a great new video, intercutting Obama's speech on July 30th with recent McFailin speeches and ads.

You remember the July 30th speech?  The one that the McFailin camp called "dealing the race card from the bottom of the deck?"

Turns out they were pissed because he betrayed their campaign strategy.

In 1966, the Student Non-violent Co-ordinating Committee(SNCC), under the new leadership of the late Stokely Carmichael(Kwame Ture), purged itself of its white members and made the cry for Black Power in Mississippi.  The now former white SNCC members were urged to go into southern white communities and organize against racism among their people.

I do remember visiting an office of the Southern Student Movement in Nashville shortly afterwards.  These young white people were trying to do just that.  I don't know whatever happened to that organization or others like it, but it seems that during the succeeding decades, progressives abandoned much of the organizing work among these whites to hate-filled right-wingers.

Up until now.

Thank you and all the Field-hands and others who, inspired by our candidate for Change, are in the trenches challenging the retrograde thinking and actions that have dominated southern whites for so long.

Mikell Hagood

You make a very important point here, and it reminded me of my reaction to an article I read a few months ago in New York magazine:

http://nymag.com/news/features/49138/

The article argues that race really is the most important factor keeping down support for Obama. But after reading the article, with quotes from interviews, I came away with a different conclusion: racism may be an important factor, but the ultimate factor is stupidity.

Probably few of us. of whatever race, are entirely free of some degree of racial prejudice; and yet, for so many of that large group, prejudice has played little or no role in their view of Obama because they judge the man on a broader view of him as a person and his ability to deal with the problems we face as a nation. To believe stories that Obama is a coke-snorting black Muslim radical terrorist, you have to be not only prejudiced, but extremely stupid. I don't care whether you might show certain signs of intelligence in other areas of life, or what factors, such as fear, allow you to believe such garbage. You are stupid. If a new concern for reality is now wising you up, it is not that you have suddenly lost all race prejudice, just that "teh stupid" is playing less of a role in your descion. And this is apparently why McCain/Palin are now focusing their campaign ENTIRELY on fomenting teh stupid. But it's not going to work. As you say, people are passing that threshold.