The Field Projects: Obama, 307 Electoral Votes, McCain 231

By Al Giordano

November 4, 2008 - it begins a few hours from now - brings an extraordinarily difficult Electoral College map for those of us in the habit of trying to project election results.

We can thank Howard Dean and his fifty-state strategy for making it so.

There are armies mobilizing to get out the vote for Obama in Indiana, Georgia, Missouri and, of course, Florida and Ohio - states that I've projected "red" here - that very well might prove the projection map I've posted above to be too conservative. (Just as there is a certain unpredictability in Montana, North Dakota and even in South Dakota - or Arizona! - that could turn them blue this year.)

But I do sense that people are getting ahead of themselves, much too swayed by the polls, without reading them carefully enough.

The sheer inertia of history works against the suggestion, now projected, that Democrats have, over four short years, made up a twelve point deficit in North Carolina, an eight point deficit in Virginia, and a five point deficit apiece in Colorado and Nevada.

And yet it is so.

I have leapt North Carolina and Nevada ahead of other states where Obama has been polling better than in those places because the combination of changing demographics in these growing states , new voter registration numbers and early voting totals, I believe, will place them in Obama's column. Very similar demographic and organizing factors were at work all year in Colorado and Virginia.

If you ask me, "was there any state you almost marked blue, Giordano, but at the last moment you balked?" I hinted at it this morning: for the same demographic and early-vote count reasons as the four I've just mentioned: It is Georgia.

(I likewise think that Obama, while not winning a majority in them, will surpass his polling averages through much of the deep South: Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina and Alabama, in particular. And if this does turn out to be a Reagan-sized landslide - I'm certainly not saying that's not possible - don't be surprised if one or more of those impossible states turns blue.)

You'll also note that my previously stated qualms are calmed about Maine's Second Congressional District - Obama will win it - and I think Obama will surprise and win Nebraska's Second Congressional district, two of five CDs in the country that offer a sole Electoral College vote.

And as for McCain's targeted blue states - Pennsylvania and New Hampshire - I'm convinced Obama has turned the corner in both places, although his margin of victory will likely be closer than the polls suggest if only because McCain has dropped a disproportionate amount of his resources into those states.

Now, what about Ohio and Florida? It is true that Obama leads in the polls in both big states. FiveThirtyEight.com projects Obama with an 80 percent likelihood of winning Ohio and a 64 percent likelihood in Florida.

But while this year is demonstrating to America and the world that a new country is emerging from the ashes of the old, there are segments of older populations in Florida and Appalachia (which includes a significant swathe of Ohio) whom I believe, based in part on my reporting from the ground, that pollsters have marked as "undecided" or "won't tell" but whom will vote - however unenthusiastically - for McCain. (Most of them are among those that always vote: I don't buy the idea that low spirits will keep them home tomorrow.)

And the difference in some states, once again, might be found - particularly in Ohio, Florida and Missouri - in the very small number of "liberal" voters that vote for Nader (some of whom, sadly, out of a liberal form of racism that they don't recognize when they look in the mirror). Just sayin'. For Obama to win Missouri, for example, the Nader vote has to collapse to near zero.

An interesting point of trivia: If this exact projection comes true it will be the first time in memory that a president won the White House without the support of Missouri. (The Show Me State - whom I pretty much alone projected for Obama prior to the February 5 primary - was kind to my projection last winter. I was tempted to bet on her again but in the end I try and make these calls coldly and rationally without nostalgia or superstition.)

Another point of trivia: Remember Senator Clinton campaign's argument last spring for how its candidate could win the general election? It was to win all the Kerry states plus Arkansas and either Ohio or Florida. I would not want to be a Democrat today looking at that narrow path to victory.

Now, you might be in one of those states working to exceed my projection, and to you I say: prove me wrong. Please, you won't make me mad or disappoint if you do. I do think it will be very close in some of those states. And if you demonstrate over the next 24 hours that I am wrong, I'll have the joy and gratitude of the teacher or organizer who can then claim that his students surpassed him in his field.

A 307 Electoral Vote victory - in which Obama exceeds 50 percent of the national vote - may not meet the much higher projections of many respected colleagues. But - no doubt - it would nonetheless be a gargantuan Electoral College landslide: exceeding George W. Bush twice for Electoral Votes and Bill Clinton twice in the popular vote, by a significant amount in all cases. And, frankly, 307 Electoral Votes would have the exact same effect as 270 or 400: a win is a win is a win, and yes, you did.

If Florida and Ohio don't make the leap this year, will the press proclaim the existence of a "Bradley Effect"? Probably. But it won't precisely be that - these are not voters that lied to pollsters claiming they would support Obama and then went back on their word. And this sub-group of voters is restricted mainly to two regions - Appalachia and Florida - which are demographically older than the rest of the country.

On the other hand, Obama's projected victory south of the Mason-Dixon line in Virginia and North Carolina, and his near-victory in Georgia (with coattails likely sending the US Senate race there into overtime and a December re-vote), will create a new narrative that will twist up the little pea brains of the Caucasian pundit class. It will be important to the narrative to focus on that in the post-election spin. (And I hate to put this in such blunt terms, but four-and-even-two-years from now, a lot of the voters that couldn't evolve quickly enough this year, well, they'll have finished out their natural years by then and no longer will be voting: and some of the survivors among them will have seen their fears morph into a surprised hope because of the policies to be enacted that will benefit them.)

There is a gray area between those that think America can't or won't change and those who seem to think that change must occur absolutely or it's time to do a Chicken Little dance. But that is not how history generally occurs. The page of history turns because people organize and struggle to make it so. That's what has just happened, and is about to be ratified.

There could well be a better result than I have projected for Obama tomorrow night. And, yes, there could be a massive landslide. And every point higher than 307, if it comes, will be celebrated as greatly as number 270.

But I also happen to think that 307 is a very nice number, and that only this candidate could have pulled it off for the Democrats.

This has been a year to remember forever. Carry it through to its conclusion and if you're going to prove me wrong, you know on which side of 307 I'm secretly hoping you will do it.

And once you've done it, don't go away, please: we've got lots more work to do. 

Update: I was just watching MSNBC here in Florida, and this ad came on the air with Paul Simon singing "American Tune." I started screaming at the TV set: "Oh no! What product did Paul Simon sell his song to? I'll kill him!"

Then when the "product" logo comes on at the end, my mom and my gal laughed at me:

 

As much as I dislike independent 527 ads in general, I thought this one, in specific, worked.

Comments

OH and FL

I actually think that Obama will win Ohio and Florida as well as the states you mentioned.  I'm tempted to pick IN and MT as well, but guess that I won't.  NC could also go either way, but I tend to think that it leans slightly Obama.

I'm guessing that Obama wouldn't have put some many resources into FL if it was that much of an uphill struggle (and was likely to run this far behind the national popular vote) and that gains in Western Ohio and Central Ohio make up for Obama's likely weakness in the SE (which is a swing region, but doesn't have that many people - I actually think that it might come down to whether Obama can hit his numbers in NE Ohio where he could also be weak compared to a generic Dem).  But we'll see, I guess.

Will you have Senate predictions too? 

Maybe It's Me

But I wonder how many McCain voters will want to stay in those long lines tomorrow and vote. They aren't very enthused as it is-when your 72 hour effort is pretty much a bust, that's a sign. Furthermore, I suspect the majority of them are older, and without the support of a strong GOTV effort, they may not leave the house.

Ohio only went red because of the voter suppression last time. I suspect that Missouri and Ohio may be the surprises of the cycle with a strong supermajority turnout in Cleveland, and even Cincinnati exceeding its goals. Same thing with Missouri. But 307 is a happy number to see.

Where can I find your 2004 projection so that I can compare?

I like your predictions a

I like your predictions a lot, Al, much like I did during the primaries.  I'm just praying all goes according to plan. It has been a long two years.

Yes We Can

I only disagree with Ohio!

 Ohio will vote for Barack at 51% statewide. Unless you know something I don't know (is nader on the ballot?). NC will be a squeaker but McLame might win by a vote or two. FL will be a long night of too close to call. VA will go blue early and then its all over but the celebration or (on the Rethug side) crying! IN will be too close to call at 7:00 PM and may go either way late in the night.

My big hope is 340 for Obama 198 McLame.

I dreamt 346 EVs

I had a dream three nights ago that Obama won 346 Electoral Votes. After reading your post, Al, I clicked on Nick's site and saw his determination that it would be 346.2. Since I haven't been able to follow much for the past three weeks because I was nowhere near the net without great effort -- jesus, did I have the bends -- I had to rely on the nightly ethers. :-)

Some anecdotal stuff, waaay out of date:

One of the things I found surprising driving up to Canada was Montana. I stopped there. Older white church-going folk, Republican women in their 70s/80s, saying they were voting for Obama. Why? Didn't want to leave the world of McCain and Palin to their grandchildren. The men I talked to were mixed. Also, I didn't hear many McCain supporters in the Northern NV bars. The Republicans were for Ron Paul and they were going to write him in if he wasn't on the ballot.

Karl Rove: Obama 338 - McCain 200

Rove's optimistic about Obama's possibilities tomorrow. Your map plus OH and FL, minus NC.

http://www.rove.com/uploads/0000/0049/McCain-Obama_11_3_08_FINAL.pdf

 

Your Map

Al (or anyone who knows) - from where are you generating that map? It's the only one I've seen that allows you to flip the Nebraska and Maine electorates individually.

Definitely a conservative prediction on your part, but at this point, with the current electoral situation, I feel that predictions are only for sport and for fun. My own less conservative predictions could be wrong in half a down states and Obama still wins handedly.

Thanks Al

I'm off to Indiana in a few minutes to hopefully help screw up your numbers by 11!  I doubt I will be able to check in again until Wednesday so GOTV and let's win this thing for Toots!

Where Al makes his maps

here- http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/

It's really fun to play around with!

Al, you are being

Al, you are being conservative--as is your habit. This tendency has stood you well through your years as a pundit. I don't slight this tendency in the least.

However, we are seeing something happening in Florida that we did not in 2000, where Gore (won) lost by only hundreds of votes. Why, with the changing demographics and the unprecedented GOTV efforts, the advertising enslaught, etc.--why and how could McLame win this?

I know, I know--I have seen it from some of the racists that I have confronted in my canvassing work. And, more, I have invested a lot of psychic energy and footwork toward getting out the vote in Florida.

A superior number of newly registered voters and a stronger GOTV ground game, I predict, will put Obama over the top in both Florida and Ohio.

However, if I have to put my professional bone fides on the line in an electoral map, I'd likely play it pretty damned conservative too.

Eff it, I'll take 307 and the eff'n White House too. Not too damned shabby.

A lessor candidate and it wouldn't even be a contest--McLame would win.

You can't take out the United States' racist and oppressive history from the mix. To do so would be laughable and lame. Barack Obama HAD to be twice as good as McLame just to obtain a few percentage point win over the old, lame white dude.

If Obama was all African, and not just half--he would have had to have been four times as good. He would have to, literally, shit gold, and only angels can do that.

Bottomline: no I am not happy with how this election has played out.  Thsi shouldn't even be a damned contest!  But I also understand that without  real grass roots movements (not just an election campaign) we shouldn't expect much different that what we get.  Unless the population is organized and semi-educated we will only get mild reform--designed to placate the subordinate population jus enough to keep them/us huddled in front of our television sets to occupy and channel our thoughts and emotions.

All the above said--I will be pleasantly surprised and elated if the people of the US exceed Al's predictions.  I hope they do so in a way that makes Al look utterly inept as a prognosticator.  Without 'hope', nothing matters. Remember, in the experience of this great nation, there is nothing 'false' about hope.

Yes we can!

 

 

Thanks Ben!

WashPo, the one place I forgot to look! Thanks, Ben.

Florida?

Steven - Regarding Florida, I think Obama is going to over-perform previous Democrats in your region (the I-4 corridor) but likely to under-perform in Broward, Brevard, West Palm Beach, etcetera among white retirees.

If - as some commenters surmised after my post about the Jewish-American vote there - the reluctance to declare a preference among some down there was not because they were voting against Obama but because they were voting for him, then my projection goes out the window and Obama wins Florida.

But I think your region - Tampa to Orlando - is going to surprise with how strong its Obama vote is going to be compared to Kerry and Gore.

 

Karl Rove is more liberal in

Karl Rove is more liberal in his predictions of an Obama win than is Al?  LOL

I think when you have seen the shit that Al and I have it makes sense--but only to a degree.

However, I listened to a 91 year old Studs Turkel talking last night about 'hope'.  His incredible faith in the capacity of people to do the right thing and not be fooled--well, it made me a wee bit ashamed of the degree to which I almost automatically give over to cynicism at times.

Hope trumps cynicism--almost all of the time.

If we lose Florida it means that I did not have enough faith in my self and my fellow Floridians--and it showed through because a majority of the people opted for fear and cynisim.

 

GOTV

CA made over 400,000 calls on Sat. and over 500,000 calls on Sun.  to swing states.  We started at 6AM today and will do the same tomorrow.  I spoke to NC voters at 6AM and then went to work at 9 - that's how much I love talking to people who are excited about Obama!  The first calls I made were to what sounded to my left coast ear a black neighborhood so basically I made sure they knew where to vote (all did and were stoked!) or if they needed a hand getting to the polls, we had an 877 number.  I actually talked to a guy named McCain who assured me he was voting for Obama!

The last two sheets I got were a different neighborhood.  I spoke to many elderly sounding women who sounded completely happy with their support of Obama.  Many of them had voted early but still wanted to chat and tell their stories!  I got only two (male!) McCain supporters.

Many asked me what I thought - would Obama win?  I assured them that if they and all of their friends voted he would not only win the election but also win NC.

I can't wait to see the numbers coming out of CA.  I was at Norm's yesterday morning for breakfast with a friend and of course all we talked about was the election.  A Hispanic guy eating next to us came over afterwards and assured us that he and all the other painters on his crew had already voted for Obama.  He told us that absolutely no one he knows is voting for McCain.

 

 

Renee

Ew

First time Rove and I have agreed about anything - 338/200.

Indeed, Al.  I trust your

Indeed, Al.  I trust your judgement.  And, as I said, your job is to be accurate--not to project your biases on your analysis (I know, a dubious proposition--but I respect the effort to be clear-eyed and 'objective'.)

My deep hope is that Obama's support is being significantly underestimated.

All I can do now is help gotv tomarrow.

OT: A cop confiscated my driver's license when I was canvassing a gated, mostly GOP community this evening (they got 'calls' from irrate folks LOL) because it had a crack in it.  Tomarrow I have to go to the DMV an get another one.  The bastards didn't know that I early voted. LOL  But I have to have a valid id/drivers license at all times--it doen't pay to not have the rudiments of what the system requriers a citizen, you just play right into the hands of the forces of reaction.

 

Prediction from the past

Shortly before the venue changed for The Field, I made the prediciton that Obama would win 303 EVs with an outside chance at 330.  I am now proclaiming he will win 368.

 

The weather is supposed to be beautiful in most parts of the country tommorrow which will help him get out the vote.  This means he pulls out IN, FL, OH, and MT.

For a chuckle

Go to SUSA page and see what happened when they pulled Obama vs McCain 2 years ago.

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/11/03/mccain-510-electoral-votes-obama-28-how-the-map-looked-exactly-2-years-ago/

Are We There Yet?

Can I relax now? I'll keep working, but reading all these predictions have me breathing a little easier.

What a long strange trip it's been....

Ok, let's be clear here:

Ok, let's be clear here: Obama did the right thing to visit his grandmother over a week ago.  This guys natural instincts are just so spot-on in so many ways, and consistently.

Al, if this doesn't pull enough of the senior vote out for Obama to put him over the top here in Florida...well, I don't know what I'll do.

Am I wierd in thinking that she died at the exact time so as to help pull this out for Obama?

My thoughts are with the Obama family--the end of this election will mark both profound happiness and sadness.   I have never had so much respect for a political family in the US within my political era--aside of the Kennedy folk.

It does hearten me to know that Mrs. Dunham knew that Obama would win this election--and nothing can change this fact from the end of her wonderful life.  Little did she know that the frutis of  her sacrifice and love would resound in the way it did--beyond her wildest dreams.

The fact of her death punctuates Obama's victory in a very awesome, profound manner.

Vote fraud and voter suppression

Obama will win overall despite vote fraud and voter suppression, but a quick look at past history suggests that with a fair vote and vote count he would win Florida and Ohio.

If Rove is calling Florida and Ohio for Obama perhaps the Republican machine will let those go, to keep the heat off now and be able to do the theft when an election is close enough to steal.

I think, though, that Obama has to be a "sore winner" and pursue a full vote count and assessment of a pretty busted election system everywhere, what Gore and Kerry failed to do and what may be easier to do when winning.  I would like to see Republicans try to make "sore winner" an epithet as Obama insists on counting the votes of disenfranchised poor and people of color around the country.

My prediction

393-145

 

Kerry+NV,NM,CO,MT,MO,IA,IN,OH,VA,NC,GA,FL

 

I think the combination of GOTV, AA turnout, and knowledge by McCain supporters that he has lost will push the marginal states to Obama.

Your conservative approach

Your conservative approach (as compared to that of, say, Chris Bowers or Karl Rove) is to be admired.

353

I think a big wave washes over the country tomorrow, taking with it the detritus of the past eight years -- the wreckage of an illegal and stupid war, of Katrina, of economic recklessness that has cost regular people their retirement plans and houses, of all the fear mongering meant to divide us.

I see this coming in at 353 or more for Obama.  

I'll see your 303 and...

I will add OH, FL, IN, MO, and MT for a 378 -121.

@ Steve

The humanness, the humility, the honesty of this man is austounding. Deep, real family values.
From the last NC rally - with wiping away tears.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5oMY6_kCoo

I think

I think Obama will be closer to 400 than to 300. And if I had to make a not-completely-impossible optimistic prediction, then closer to 400 than to 350. I'd love to see McPalin and the GOP bite the dust big time.

That said, if Obama gets 270 I'll be immensely happy. It means it would be a long night that would start with shock and panic and devastated expectations, evolve into a nightmarish nailbiting count on the verge of a heart attack, and end with a massive adrenaline/serotonine/sheer relief and happiness flush when he wins 270-268 and his victory is as valid as a 538-0 for practical purposes.

And that said, the wider the margin of victory, the stronger the mandate, and the more political capital he'll have to start his term.So hoping for a confortable win and a strong mandate. He'll need it.

 

MO red, NE-2 blue?

Having lived in both Missouri and Nebraska, I'm curious as to why you think NE-2 (Omaha) will go blue, but not Missouri? And, if Obama does indeed take NE-2, why he wouldn't take Ohio, Indiana, and/or Florida? Nebraska is much more conservative than any of those states.

sometimes a 527 is okay

In general I agree with you Al that 527's tend to make things worse rather than better.  They are usually extremely negative and bitterly so.

 

This ad works because it gets the message across ithout banging you over the head.  If it increases the Obama vote 1/2 of 1% it has done its job.

prediction

397-141*

I'm with JPM.  It will be okay if I am wrong, but it is fun to guess big.

*that includes one electoral vote from the good state of Nebraska

Now Al goes all conservative on us ? ;)

Thanks Al.

My prediction 375/163. I gave him FL, OH, IN & MO.

Was tempted to give him MT also but didn't want to be seen going overboard with enthusiasm. :)

FWIW, PV - 56/43    Senate - 59-41   Congress - 270/165

amk

Al, "Progressive Future" is

Al, "Progressive Future" is vying to be a significant, national grassroots political organization, a force to be recokned with.  This ad was done in a very cutting edge fashion, supurb political advertising because it met or transcended the psychic-aesthetic, that which is the norm in corporate psyops.

An activist for this organization came to my home, and it is clear that they are making a move toward becoming a 'player'.  Will this wither on the vine?  I don't know, but the fact that they are making an on the ground effort, as well as developing an email, on-line, presence is interesting and pertinent to the efforts taking place AFTER this election.

So I think that this is significant.   What types of internet-based political models, that also invovle canvassing, can be developed.  The Obama organization has already shown us that we can bypass the traditional corporate apparatus.  And it appears that some people (with some cash at hand, to hire canvassers) are alreading venturing into this area, or horizon of possiblity--right out in the open but under the noses of the conventional media and (most) of the blogosphere.

We have the potential to expand a progressive politics in this county if we can organize our energies.  The ideas are on our side, and the goal is to move millions ot make this happen.

 

Here's to hoping the Hoosiers prove you wrong!

Just got back from voting in San Diego--. Stood in line for over 5 hours-- 10:30- 4.  Despite the never-ending line, people were in high spirits, going out and bringing back takeout, lending each other sweatshirts and folding chairs, sharing stories.

And if turnout at SD county's early voting today is any kind of indication, African American tunout is being hugely underestimated. The A.A. pop in San Diego County is currently at around 5%-- but A.A.s made up about 20% of the voters standing in line.

I stood with a 50-something white retired airforce pilot who offered me use of his phone, a middle-aged AA bus driver who insisted I take her sweatshirt, a 65 year old AA woman who'd rented a car to drive herself and people from her neighborhood to vote at early at the registar and wanted to debate Thomas Jefferson, a group of 3 gay 30-something friends(all professionals) white, latino, and AA, who shared their frustrations with having to defend who they are YET AGAIN-- and a 40-yr-old Indian-American stay-at-home mom.  UNANIMOUSLY for Obama. All ADAMANTLY against Prop 8.

 

 

The question, for me, is this:

are the 'undecideds' you mention more embarrassed to admit support for the old white guy or the black guy named 'Hussein.' This also the case when I read your anecdote about the Florida nursing home, and living in deep Appalachia myself, I can tell you that even die hard supporters like myself are reluctant to admit our political leanings in certain kinds of company. It could just as well be the case that some of these people are reluctant to admit their support for someone who has been the target of so much demonization and scorn. Of course, it could also be a mix of both, and in that case, the polls may be exactly right. We'll see.

Virginia

Here's my guess...

OK Al, for my conservative go, I went with your map, but with the following additions:

NC, OH, and ND for 330-208.

But if GA goes for Obama, I can't see how FL does not -- 

That gives us 372-166.

I know, that's just hedging, but I've worked hard this weekend, so I'm taking two guesses.  Like you Al, I'd love to be proved too conservative!

Loved your analysis and insight, Al, and fieldhands! See you on the other side of GOTV!

404-134

404 will be the *magic* number:

All Kerry States, + CO, GA, FL, IA, MO, MT, IN, NC, NE02, NV, NM, OH, VA, and... yes, AZ

 

Yes We Can!

Watching him speak live in VA on CNN.

What a turnout for his last campaign speech !!! Incredible.

" I have just one word for you - Tomorrow, Tomorrow".

GO USA.

amk

Obama is more likely to win FL than NC in my opinion

Obama will win Florida. McCain aides are down on FL apparently. Here's a tabulation of poll results in the battleground states from pollsters who did a good job in 04.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/3/191140/189/444/651471

Of course this does not include the early voting help Obama might have had in FL or NC.

Nor does it mean that the electorate they poll will be representative in this weird election. Particularly since many pollsters give 20% of blacks to McCain and unrealistically high percentage

Survey USA - FL

Early voters!

I'm commenting on a thread of days past, but today I did what I thought would have been unthinkable for me...I picked up the phone and made several "get out the vote" calls on behalf of the Obama campaign.  Half the people I spoke to in Colorado spoke Spanish, most of them recently naturalized and excited to vote in their first election.  What shocked me is that the MAJORITY of people to whom I spoke across the land already voted.

Survey USA - PA

via TPMEC, the first results from NH go to Obama

Dixville Notch (NH): O 15   M 6. A place that has never voted democratic in 40 years (1968 - Hubert Humphery).

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/first_results_obama_takes_dixv.php#comments

It has started. Go, Go, Go.

amk

Dixville

To discuss Dixville Notch at all is to overweight it. Still, it is as rock-ribbed Republican a hamlet as can be found and Obama won going away. This certainly isn't a bad sign.

Barry, I am just an over-enthusiastic Indian :)

How about this ? Hart's Location - O 17  M 10

http://www.hartslocation.com/

amk

No Ohio? Really?

You do realize that Obama has laid down his game epic hard in the state, right? That's the most intense GOTV action in the nation, as you've detailed yourself, Al.

Plus he's above 50% in the poll composite. I just don't see Ohio going red this time around. We'll lose NC before Ohio. (fingers-crossed)

The difference between Hillary and Obama

Al you said: "But I also happen to think that 307 is a very nice number, and that only this candidate could have pulled it off for the Democrats."

Hillary and Obama both would have won because it's such an anti-Republican year.  From an electoral standpoint, Hillary would have been the 'safer' choice because she had FL and OH on lockdown, but she couldn't have expanded the map.  Make no mistake about it: she would have hit 300 EVs easily, but probably never more than 320 or so.  Obama's map and electoral standing was tenuous until late-September but he truly has expanded the map into the South and West.  He could legitimately hit 400 EVs if he has a good night and that's what no other Democrat could have done.

The story that is flying under the radar is the coattail effect.  Off the top of my head pay attention to AZ-03, GA-Sen, NE-02, NC-08, WA-08, CT-04.  Many of these races are close and if these good progressive candidates get pulled across the finish line because of Obama, he will have a friendlier Congress to work with.

Predictions, Barry?

What about you?

I think I'll go to bed now and contemplate Dixville Notch for a while.

I'm not going to make any specific predictions other than to say I am optimistic and think the polls are not accurately accounting for the ground game and the cellphone effect.  It's possible that as time goes on, cellphone only users will prove to resemble other demographics.  But studies clearly show that they are a unique demographic at this point in time and break disproprtionately to Obama.  Nate had some recent supporting evidence of this in comparing pollsters using cellphones and those not.  Maybe we can hope the Prop 8 pollsters didn't use cellphones and that isn't as close as it looks.

Kos sure went out on a limb and went for the full blown blowout in his predictions.  I certainly wouldn't ever dismiss Al's opinions but I'm hoping Kos is more right than he is on this one!

Hart's Location

Same deal, Agoram. Definitely not a bad sign.

And Tara, it is bad luck for me to make predictions. That said, I certainly hope we see the old fight-fight-fighter crash-land one more time.Gooooooo gravity!

Obviously the early states will be more revealing than usual. This alone speaks well of Senator Obama's chances. When was the last time we could read anything into the results from Indiana, Va or NC?

All that's left is to get out and vote and get out the vote.

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About Al Giordano

Biography

Publisher, Narco News.

Reporting on the United States at The Field.

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