Go West, Young Man!

I would give anything for it to be sweitzer. He would be really cool.

If he picks Schweitzer then I will dig into my savings account to give to this campaign!!

I just posted an updated map on the earlier thread.

However, one key difference in mine is that I routed the tour through St. Paul, MN, Kaine's birthplace, which then sends them south to Iowa via I-35.

If it's Kaine, and also because of the impending RNC wake, I mean convention in St. Paul, this would be my bet.

Ooh Lawdy! Looky looky. . . gonna be one of three governors? Who woulda thought, no foreign policy gravitas! Who woulda called a Washington outsider on a populist kick? Who indeed. . .

Sorry Cokie, Halperin, “The Dean” et al.

Try harder next time.

Love this betting game. So the reports about Indianapolis were a head fake?

Based on this itinerary I would have to consider Schweitzer seriously and Kaine. I would like to think McCaskill is a contender but it's hard to imagine giving up that senate seat. The "running against Washington" frame makes excellent sense and a good basis for the VP choice.

 

It is getting close to the 3 am moment here for me.

amk

..about how this looks for Sebelius. While the lack of stops in Ohio or Kansas aren't good signs, Kansas City, MO is right on the border and shares a large media market with northeastern Kansas, the most densely populated part of that state. And if what I've read is correct, Sebelius is quite well known in the KC metro area.

On the other hand, the stop in Montana on Wednesday night does seem like a Schweitzer pick isn't out of the question. I'd be quite happy with either.

Schweitzer!

This is look'n really, really good.

Cokie, how about we send you and your pundit, insider hubby, to the big island, that exotic locale.  Maybe you will jump into the volcano.

(Hey, a person that loaths the lamestream punditry can dream, right?)

Obama's bus tour will stop in these cities along the way to pick up the various VP candidates, with each in turn being spotlighted in their home towns among their base of supporters, and ONLY upon arrival in Denver will the campaign announce which one has been selected?

How does that sound for an attention-getting and enthusiasm-building plan?

It think it's looking like either Kaine, Schweitzer or Gore.

All more than acceptable choices.

Cranking out one insightful post after another.

After looking at the iternary I am prepared to go on a limb and say it is Schweitzer. Why would a democratic presidential nominee be in Billings, MT on the second-most important day of the convention? He could have gone to New Mexico if he was just looking to campaign with VP nominee in a state that is expected to be close this fall. I am expecting the text message Friday evening or Saturday noon just before the event in Springfiled. It is going to be great.

I think the fact that Obama has spent the last two days in Virginia, coupled with that travel map, is a good sign for Kaine being the pick. Kaine also was a surrogate this morning hitting McCain with the Obama camp's message of the day focusing on McCain being out of touch on the economy. Also, the benefit of Kaine having run in, and won, a fairly brutal campaign recently is a benefit that Bayh and Biden don't bring along. Kaine knows what he'll be up against with constant attacks on Obama and he'll be ready to refute them. Kaine's media expectations will also be fairly low, since he doesn't have the high profile or the bombastic style of others, which could help in media's assessment of his convention speech and the VP debate.

A biased one beacuse I really, really want it to be Sebelius but here's my take.

http://thepage.time.com/2008/08/21/obama-headed-to-wisconsin-iowa-mis...

Springfield Saturday, Eau Claire, Wisconsin Sunday, the Quad Cities
area in Iowa Monday, Kansas City, Missouri Tuesday and Billings,
Montana Wednesday.

Is it just me or does that mean it is not going to be Bayh?

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&ll=37.160317,-105....

That's a map of the trip. If your going to pick Bayh wouldn't you stop in Indiana or at least somewhere close to Indiana?

So that leaves us with Kaine and Biden who are not remotely in the area (which could make them seem likely and pick the pick more of a surprise) or Sebelius.

Draw a line from the start to the finish and it runs through Kansas, the closest stop to a VP's home is Kansas (Kansas City), it's being billed as focusing on economic issues and is in places where people care about economic issues, Sebelius is currently slotted to speak on economic issues and that's her best area. Sebelius has been campaigning in similar areas for Obama recently, she was in Michigan to kick off women for Obama (women outreach tryout?) and is in Iowa today hitting McCain on houses (attack dog tryout?).

I'm probably way over reading this. But I think it might be Sebelius. And I'm really, really hoping that. So right now I predict Sebelius will get the call for being VP on Friday with Kaine and Biden being the next most likely.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080821/ap_on_el_pr/veepstakes

He says it's someone who is independent, prepared to be president, and would help him strengthen the economy.  He will appear with the person in Illinois on Saturday.  (feel free to not approve this comment if someone already posted the same link)

Been here since March. Still here with the fingers crossed.  Liking that stop in Billings, though I wish they'd put in an appearance (O and whomever it is) somewhere in South Dakota since they are passing through.

And Armchairmen comment, I know but if half of politics is just showing up, I would think South Dakotans (and the folks in Omaha, for that matter) would appreciate the attention.

i sent an e-mail to my buddy (and fellow recent Fieldhand) that read, in the subject line only and in it's entirety:

"Dude, Obama is on fire today, and so is Al! Wheee, Fieldhands!"

He's got to hit the places where he needs a campaign presence and where he can spend his time and get some return on it. Whether his VP is Clinton or Kaine or John Q. Suit, his campaign priorities are going to be pretty much the same. Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Montana...really don't have anything to do with any of the "short list" names (and I will eat my shoe if Schweitzer is the pick), they really more reflect campaign strategy, the same strategy we've seen in the past several months. This could easily be a July itinerary, it's pretty unremarkable.

Bill "The CW" Schneider and Wolfman Blitzer are touting Hillary as VP even as they show numbers that indicate her base is moving to Obama more than McCain.

The onscreen chyron said "VP Buzz for Clinton."

Umm, that buzz you hear are the flies gathering around the corpse.

It is the VP rollout tour so there has to be some symbolic value and a narrative. And the narrative would be perfect if it is Schweitzer and the tour begins in Springfield and ends in Billings, MT and then they both head to Denver.

I think you're misreading what this map is. It's not the actual road tour of Obama, it's one stop a day plugged into Google Maps. In other words, it's the likely late night bus driver route. It says nothing about other stops. A visit to Minneapolis during the day on Sunday before an event in Eau Claire at night is possible. A visit to Topeka or El Dorado on Tuesday is possible.

If Schweitzer has to leave Montana for the VP spot, who takes over? Isn't it a Republican?

Isn't that a loss for the Dems?

We won't have to shoot you, Al.  Can't imagine Linda Daschle passing the vetting for spouse of VP - too many lobbyist connections. Expect to see Daschle as COS.

Kaine.  Tho, like Christi, I'd JUMP for JOY with Gore.

I think this tells us NOTHING about who the VP is.   It's just a good battleground route to Denver.

Agree most with Ben (itinerary unrelated to VP choice).

Also, didn't Webb go all populist-y in his senate race?

since it's not, I just thought I'd throw something my husband said into the pot. I'd mentioned the recent discussions here to him and when I said a number of folks were floating Gore's name (someone he really likes) I was surprised by his immediate 'no way' response. His take was that too many people would be upset that Gore wasn't at the top of the ticket that it would undermine Obama.

Personally I'd be thrilled with Gore, Sebilius, or Schweitzer and I'm happy enough with Kaine. Okay truth be told I trust Obama's judgement in this that whoever he picks (unless it is an Iraq war supporter - that I do have a problem with) will be fine with me. LOL of course what I think about this means ziltch but hey it matters to me ;-).

No worries for SD.  The great thing about a bus tour is you can make as many whistle-stops along the way as the schedule will accommodate, so I doubt Obama would pass through SD without disembarking at least once.

I will reiterate:  Obama has cultivated and owned an image of being a DC outsider.  In my view he has totally head-faked the corporate pundit class.

Schweitzer was decided on as a very, very, likely VP in May, when O-man had the nomination all but wrapped up.

Obama's campaign is playing chess.

Electing a non-white, half-African male for the first time in US history is a unique, outside-the-box, situation.  Why wouldn't Obama choose as unlikely a running mate?

You can bet that Schweitzer has been amply vetted--and he will bring a degree of authenticity (yes, cynics, the concept is always operative, everywhere) and down-homeness, regular-folkness to the campaign.   And he ought to bring his dog to the convention floor.

Where Obama causes pause in people because he is very honed and calculating (intellectual)--Schweitzer will appeal to folks more amendable to a humble, firm, and frank mild populist from the Western heartland.

All this is just my hunch--but I don't think that another stop in Billings is just part of regular campaigning.  The route that Obama has chosen to Denver has incredible significance--otherwise he might just as well be in Ohio or Florida.

 

 

I will have died and gone you know where.

Obama/Schweitzer '08

A Ticket for the 21st Century

I think team Obama knows that Daschle wouldn't fire up the base. If you're going for the three point shot, and you really want to WOW the crowd, you gotta go with someone like Schweitzer or GORE. At this point and with how long this is going on, I have to believe it will be better than Daschle. This is team Obama we're talking about after all. There's only one man who likes to mess with the media more than Obama-you guessed it, Gore. And, if it is Gore, this has likely been orchestrated for far longer than any of us, except those of us who read both Obama and Gore's books at the same time and saw the same messages throughout-ever expected. I don't know, it was once totally unlikely but seems an interesting possibility now. Others are thinking Bloomberg-however I just read that Bloomberg is trying to extend term limits to stay Governor of NY for another term. This was according to the NY post today. I'm reluctant to believe that Obama would release his schedule and make it this easy for us to figure it out when we have been in suspense for so long....Hmmmm. No wonder he won the primaries! :)

Latest news from Barack is he has picked the person but won't say when he'll tell us or if he's told the VP. He wanted someone who would help him with the economy. I'm still holding out hope that Gore will get off the sidelines and get in this thing! If not, and as I said before, Schweitzer would be great.

and picking up everybody on the way to Denver. It's just a carpool kinda thing.

This has been fun, I can hardly wait to see who it is.

"Three point shot! Three point shot!"

If it was Schweitzer, why would Obama go to Billings on the day the VP is speaking in Denver? Seems like cutting it a bit close. Just sayin'. But I hope so.

Also, here's audio of the Obama confirmation:

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/08/obama-says-hes.html

Man, I hope he blows everyone's socks off with this...

Having been away for a while, where, when, and how has Schweitzer appeared in the national media as a strong surrogate for Obama?  Kaine obviously has been busy in this role for more than the last month. Sebelius likewise, though less loudly.  Somehow I have missed Schweitzer's public auditions. Maybe that's because he has had it in the bag for a long while. Or, maybe I have just missed him. Any helpful links to the Montana governor as surrogate since July 4 would be really helpful.

 

The only question is whether he will say Brian Schweitzer and travel WITH Schweitzer back to Billings and on to Denver or wait until Tuesday or even Wednesday to announce which would make sense as Al pointed out August 19.

I am updating a Schweitzer-focused page here:

http://stephencrosehome.blogspot.com

I do not call this a three pointer. It is a SLAM DUNK. Arrogance! You know it! And Al has the reasons cold.

 

 

 

 

 

Just a quick correction - Bloomberg is mayor of NYC, not the state Gov. ;-) I grew up upstate and many folks there get sensitive about the frequent misperception of NYC as the entire state.

If its Gore-I will be grinning from ear-to-ear. Of course, I think that there is a  99.9% chance that isn't, but I have a little while to hope.

 

Four themes seem to present in Obama's "what I want in a VP" talking points.

1. Someone who is qualified to be President, right now.

2. An independent voice; and perhaps someone who does not agree with Obama on every issue. Perhaps someone who does not come from the same ideological mileu as Obama.

3. An economic populist, someone who is strong on the economy.

4. Someone whom he trusts

Who fits into all four points-I'm not sure.

I'm guessing Sebelius will be his choice.

Brendan,

Other people on this board are far more knowledgable about Schweitzer than I am, but I think that Obama & Biden have spent 4th of July together.

Other than that, I'm not aware of any stumping Brian has done. Which IMHO makes his choice as VP less likely.

 

 

Whooops-sorry. Point is, don't think it will be him.

These VP picks rarely play out according to conventional wisdom and I think Obama's team has been having fun with the media on this. I recently suggested that Obama was going to make a surprise pick and made my own argument for Schweitzer, so I'd love it if that were the case.

http://rielworld.com/2008/08/19/obama-veepstakes-surprise/

By the way, Al, I love your reporting and your fresh takes on the election. It's a pleasure to follow your blog. 

Let's wait and see before making any wild-a$$ed guesses.  Let's take a deep breath and consider all of the evidence (aren't we supposed to be the purveyors of reason?)

• I can't recall one instance Schweitzer (in stark comparison to the other VP candidates) has served as a national surrogate for Obama.
• Schweitzer had no formal role in the Obama campaign at all, and didn't endorse until after Montana had voted (rather late in the primary cycle).  Compare this to Kaine and Sebelius. 
  
• At one point (in 2007, I believe), Schweitzer publicly stated that he was considering voting for (yikes) Mitt Romney.
• The two apparently barely appeared together at the Fourth of July event in Billings.
• Schweitzer recently went off message a bit when he let it slip that gun owners wouldn't love either major party candidate.
• Schweitzer publicly took Obama's policies to task during the primaries.
• Schweitzer seems to be the kind of guy who loves to ham it up for the cameras (is that a quality Obama would value?). 
  
• Schweitzer has repeatedly indicated his strong disdain for Washington D.C.  Is he really all that likely to give up his current reelection campaign for Montana governor (where he is very popular) in order to move to an environment he despises?

I would love for Obama to tap Schweitzer.  But those of you claiming it is a done deal are a little loopy.  The odds have to be less than 1 in 10.  If it happens, it would be a tremendous and improbable darkhorse pick.

As long as Obama doesn't tap another U.S. Senator, we should all breathe a huge sigh of relief.

The geography: I'm not sure if we can read the road-map to be an indication of who the VP is. For one thing, as others have pointed out earlier-a trip from Springfield to Denver will go through those states. Secondly why would the Obama campaign tip off everyone as to who the VP nominee is through the map? Already people are guessing Seibelius, Kaine, Schweitzer based on the map.

The date/time: I've seen two conflicting theory for the date of delievery, if it is on a Friday. One: It is a BIG name pick-(go gore!) a pick that would dominate the weekend headlines. Or two: the Obama campaign doesn't want a lot of talking heads discussing the VP, before Obama and the VP do their apperance in Springfield.

My dark horse bet is Sebelius, but if its Biden I'd be very satistified and if the choice is Gore-well the O-team deserves a gold medal for pulling one over on everyone.

 

Earlier I said that Biden & Obama spent the 4th together-meant Schweitzer & Obama.

No, if Schweitzer was decided upon in May, as I believe, then it would have spoiled everything to have him become an attack dog these past two months.

O-man gives the attentive (and non-brainwashed) clues:

"I want somebody who's independent, somebody who can push against my preconceived notions and challenge me so we have got a robust debate in the White House."

Note the emphasis on 'independent'. This would characterize the aura that surrounds a Western Democrat more than Kain or Sebelius--or, at least I am inclined to think so. Not saying that Sebelius wouldn't be an excellent choice--but I am just say'n that choosing her would be riskier than a white male given the novelty of having a bi-racial candidate as the Democrat contender. Sad but true. Sebelius is more photogenic than Schweitzer--and with her the ticket could look too smooth.

One of O-man's problems is that, for many, he looks too slick and too smooth. Schweitzer will help balance this out some.

If Schweitzer can help mitigate some of the qualms on the part of white folk, then this is a masterful stroke on the part of Obama. Schweitzer will bring 'balance' by challenging O-man's preconcieved ideas (becoming a defacto surrogate for white males that the multicultural Obama might not have the necessary sensitivities with respect to the 'tone' of policy/decisions)

Indeed, if it is not Schweitzer than I will eat my shoe.

As I am human, however, I do have the propensity to look for information that confirms my predispositions and biases.

If it IS Gore--than the O-man faked me out, he would have bested me and others here, and I will have absolutely NO problem with that. Gore has redeemed himself in my eyes for some of the crap that happened under Clinton.

An Obama/Gore ticket would have the 'slighted man gets revenge' meme happening. This would be fun also.

 

 

The more I reread Obama's description of his VP choice, the more I'm leaning to a certain former primary frontrunner.

"I want somebody who has integrity, who’s in politics for the right reasons, I want somebody who is independent."  << This pretty much rules out Clinton, Biden, Bayh >>

"Somebody who is able to say to me, ‘You know what, Mr. President, I think you’re wrong on this and here’s why,’ and who will help me think through major issues and consult with me, would be a key advisor."

"I want somebody who is capable of being president and who I would trust to be president. That’s the first criteria for VP." << Definitely rules out Hillary >>

"And the final thing is, I want a vice-president who shares with me a passion to make the lives of the American people better than they are right now."            << Sounds like a certain former Catamount governor >>

"I want someone who is not in it just because they want to have their name up in lights or end up being president. I want somebody who is mad right now that people are losing their jobs. And is mad right now that people have seen their incomes decline, and wants to rebuild the middle class in this country. That’s the kind of person that I want; somebody who in their gut knows where they came from and believes that we have to grow this country from the bottom up."

<< Boom.  That sounds a lot like a former DNC chairman. >>

Anybody know what Howard Dean is trading for on Intrade?

I have seen to date:

 

Please spread around, folks.

"somebody who in their gut knows where they came from"

Dean grew up with a wealthy family and went to private schools..It doesn't fit with that theme

It also describes Jim Webb from Virginia.

"I want somebody who is independent." 

Check. Guy switched parties.

"Somebody who is able to say to me, ‘You know what, Mr. President, I think you’re wrong on this and here’s why,’ and who will help me think through major issues and consult with me, would be a key advisor."

Webb's notoriously blunt and outspoken. Doesn't pull punches. As for being a key advisor, he's knowledgable with experience in government (former Navy Secretary).

"I want somebody who is capable of being president and who I would trust to be president. That’s the first criteria for VP."

Again, Webb was the civilian leader of a significant department within the Department of Defense.

"And the final thing is, I want a vice-president who shares with me a passion to make the lives of the American people better than they are right now."    

The Scots-Irish Webb exudes passion (some would say too much), particularly on the issue of the economy and the growing disparity between the haves and have-nots. Al, I disagree with you about him being a populist. Webb actually won in Virginia with a populist, anti-Iraq war message. Check out this op-ed from '06:

http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110009246

"I want somebody who is mad right now that people are losing their jobs. And is mad right now that people have seen their incomes decline, and wants to rebuild the middle class in this country. That’s the kind of person that I want; somebody who in their gut knows where they came from and believes that we have to grow this country from the bottom up."

Anyone who's seen Webb's memorable exchange with Lindsay Graham on Press The Meat ("Lindsay's having a bad week. . .") recognizes that the guy has a short fuse, but in a totally compelling way.

Anyway, I doubt it'll be Webb - for a variety of reasons- but he would make this race a lot more interesting.

 

So McCain and a 527 group are out with ads today after McCain got pummeled on not knowing how many homes he owns. This indicates that McCain is running scared. Both ads deserve responses pronto and are both pathetic attacks. Obama wasn't implicated in anything either Rezko or Ayers did and that should be easy to say.

Reading that description, I thought of Webb too-especially on the economic populism message.

Here is an interesting quote from a supposed insider on the Obama VP selection:

The VP choice was a difficult one for Obama, a source close to the Illinois senator tells CNN's Gloria Borger.

Specifically Obama was "very hung up on the experience versus change,” the source said, and how his message of change may conflict with a longtime Washington insider.

The source doesn't know who Obama ultimately chose, but confirms Sens. Joe Biden and Evan Bayh, along with Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine are all in the running.

 

in my opinion. Me thinks Dean's career in national electoral politics was over after his scream on the night he lost Iowa in 2004. The media was relentless and finished him off. I like Dean and he is doing a great job to build the party but it is tough to comeback after a hit like that.

The campaign stops have very little to do with the selection, from my perspective.

They're not going to give anything away via the scheduling.