Greek Drama Week Begins

No one ever went broke underestimating the moral underpinnings of the behavior of the Clintons.  Whatever the Vegas odds, I would take the under when it comes to Hillary Clinton.

When I first saw this video I came to the conclusion that, process would dictates that the delegates vote on the floor of the convention, let it happen. There's a reason Barack Obama won, and it's because he had more delegates. So of course Hillary supporters deserve to have their voices heard.

Your insight into the invisible Obama hand stirring this pot in the first place is extremely valuable. I see exactly how this allows everyone to come out of the National convention smelling like roses.

Now we just need to handcuff Bill Clinton in a basement somewhere in Arkansas or Brooklyn until November 5th and we'll all be set.

Upon reading the article referenced above: "Karen Tumulty's report about the Clintons not being "over it."" I was surprised to read that Obama has not followed through with his promise to raise $500,000 to help retire Clinton's campaign debt.  When speaking to registered voters, I'd like to feel confident saying that Obama tries to keep his campaign promises.  This is the sort of thing that might prevent me from doing so. 

I love the way Al set the stage. Now we Narco-Fieldhands can grab some popcorn and watch as the drama unfolds. I don't know how derranged Bill might be, but Hillary seems fully in control of herself. That's what made so much of her behavior during the primaries seem surreal. Was she mugging for the cameras or truly coming unglued? My guess is probably some of each.

I hadn't thought of the idea that the drama going on would be a way to get people to watch the convention.

I'll also be watching Hillary's trip to Las Vegas with interest. I'd like to see her start taking some hard shots at McCain.

@ Tien Le -  Obama can't force his supporters to give money. He can ask, he can try and convince, but he can't make them write the check. Hard feelings go both ways.

I trust that the O campaign has people in place (lord knows, there has been enough hand-wringing, fence-post shouting and sternly worded blog posts) to fill in while he's on vacation.  I have joined the group of mildly frustrated with the lack of coordinated surrogate message discipline.  If Hillary doesn't make the news, I'm crossing my fingers that there are other newsmakers (in a positive, assertive way) ready to go on offense.  Once again Al, great and insightful post.  I check you early and often.

Al,
fantastic analysis
my admiration for the Obama campaign grows by the day, who is better to fill the vacuume in the week Obama leaves for Hawaii than Hillary herself? :)
Now , what will be better if the VP buzz about Hillary starts again....that will take any air in the double talk express balloon.

Indeed, there needs to be some focus on the part of the corporate media during the time O-man is on vacation.

I have no concern that Hillary will try to cause problems at the convention--and have every confidence that the result of the convention will be to herd Democrats into a somewhat unified front going into the general election.

Hillary was shaken during the primaries--and that is why she was off her game for some months.   The Clintons might not like Obama--but they are smart enough to recognize that their legacy and future are intertwined with Obama's sucess.  No, they aren't stupid enough to believe that an Obama loss will align the stars for a Hillary run four years in the future.  They are egotistical, selfish, mendacious, gluttonous, and lustful--but they are not totally deluded and stupid.

I have to admit, it would be pretty awesome to see Hillary and John McCain get into some kind of back and forth spat about something, perhaps health care.  If she went after John McCain with only a tenth of the venom she spewed with the "shame on you" speech it would certainly provoke the McCain campaign into responding.  Then the media would cover that for several of the days O is on vacation and I bet more Hillary supporters would view Obama favorablly if Hillary is attacking McCain and defending Obama in some kind of "tire guage" back and forth.

I was listening to Air America radio today and there is a lot of animosity toward Hillary after this lastest realese of her comments. But I can see your point. Obama is pretty smart and I sure hope you are right. I have had a stomach ache all day. LOL. Love your insight and the one on the VP.

 You have been right so many, many times this year. I hope you are right on with this one. Drama is what people need to tune in, them give it to 'em. Barack needs a vacation and if Hillary steps up while he is gone and puts McLame off message, I will forgive her, something, I never thought I could do. She answered 12 questions on her blog today. Question 11 plays into this post.

Very interesting post & quite insightful. The Obama campaign does seem highly strategic most of the time, so I think your analysis holds up with that in mind. Thanks for the always thought provoking analysis!

@ Tien Le---re: Obama's "promise"...He promised to ASK his supporters to help her retire her debt.  He did that.  Both his supporters and her supporters made their own decision on whether to help someone who is a multi-millionaire, yet totally mismanaged her own campaign finances.  If most of them--for whatever reason--decided not to give her a dime...then--tough!

Obama promised to ask, and he did.  He even gave her the maximum $4600 (with Michelle) of his own money.  I find a lot wrong with the picture that Barack and Michelle, worth just over $4M, and having run a supurb campaign with no financial drama, having to give a penny to two multi-millionaires worth way over $100M who could not control their finances and feel that everything is owed to them and everyone is in debt to them.

The Clintons have enough money to pay their own campaign debt and still have millions left over...

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

"supurb" = "superb"...this English teacher can't stand to make an error!  tee-hee

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

TPMTV has made a compilation of some of McCain's senior moments:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWX5u69hmzY

Been a while since I last laughed so hard.

It's another case of No Drama Obama. MSBNC has announced that Obama personally asked Bill Clinton to speak at the convention on Wednesday night and he has accepted.  Methinks the drama will fade mighty fast and the die-hards will have a very, very hard time staying mad.

Leave it to Obama to work things out so well.

Sorry if this has been posted. But Bill Clinton is speaking at the DC at BHOs invitation.

The way this is being reported in local and nat. media is that HRC is playing for attention and leverage and trying to rain on the Dem. parade.

Only way for her to redeem herself is to become an attack surrogate of the first order. After spending the primary season praising John McCain and running down the Dem. presidential candidate she's going to have to do a major reversal.

The video is great for bringing up all the Hillary hate of the primary season. I don't know why she does that kind of stuff if she's really trying to redeem herself.

This is just all too brilliant.  Obama gets a week off, Hillary gets to shine while carrying O's water and throwing it at McCain by the bucketful, and Obama and Billary get to kiss and make up at the convention!

I think I can safely take a little time off and recharge my batteries while Obama does the same!

Thanks for the Chicken Little inoculation, Al.  The Clintons always manage to press my buttons.

It is true that Obama can only ask, and it is also true that many Obama supporters have no desire to gelp her out.  However, if she uses this upcoming week well and really goes after McCain and does a great job of campaigning for Obama, I can see myself giving a little to reward her for her loyalty to the party.

And that is what it is ultimately all about, loyalty to the party and the goal of the party.  Only her being persistently and strongly for Obama will bring the rest of her supporters aboard. 

Maddow made an interesting comment on her show tonight when the news came out about Bill being asked to speak on Wednesday night.  She said it shows that, unlike Gore and Kerry, Obama, being the pragmatist he is, is not going to try to run away from the Clintons.  Nor is he going to be campaigning against the Clinton years, something he did do in the primaries.

Yet, since it is now obvious that Hillary will not be the running mate (since that person speaks on Wednesday), Obama is still able to be attractive to the independents who won't necessarily be watching the convention for the Clintons' speeches but will be watching Obama's.

... about how to handle the 800 lb. gorilla that is Bill Clinton. Keith Olbermann announced tonight that WJC will be given a speech at the convention.

Wow.  Content aside (which is, I think, spot on and reframes the latest Clinton news completely), what a nice piece of writing.  Thank you.

yeah, it will be good for the Obama family to spend time on the islands--O-man's home turf.

Giving Bill a chance for prime-time at the convention is just what the doctor (psychiatrist) ordered.  Nice.

I am really impressed by Obama's propensity to think things through and keep his cool.  Can you imagine how he woulld look by now if he felt that he had to answer every slight coming from the McLame camp?  He would look insecure and frightened--and the media talking heads would have his head.

Really, I an pretty jaded, but I have the feeling that Obama will have a huge impact on the world stage for years--nay, decades--to come.  We humans are facing severe global problems on many fronts, and the old way of doing things--the imperialist and stupid way of doing things--just won't cut it for what we have to deal with as a species at this moment.

This is our moment, people.

Pamela, I say we let the PUMAs pay off Hillary's campaign debt.

Anyone stupid enough to give someone worth over one hundred million dollars money to pay off profligate campaign debt deserves to forgo their vacation to subsidize Hillary and Bill's opulence.

After giving Hillary their vacation money, they can live up to thier name-sake:  "poor, unmitigated assholes"  Word.

What I really love about the Bill invite, and what will have such enormous subliminal impact as it happens, is that Bill will be giving his speech Wednesday night inside a 19,000-capacity stadium to party faithful, then the next night Obama rocks the 76,000-capacity Invesco Center, which you know will be full.

The possibility of even making a comparison between Clinton and Obama as equal influences within the Democratic party going forward is decimated destroyed by the venues. Bill Clinton is walking into a Madame Tussaud moment of his own making.

==========

Now, what this enquiring mind wants to know is will Obama bring his grandmother Tutu back on the plane to be up on that stage with him?

Amy Winehouse moment.

:-)

I am going to love those split screens of the two stadiums on the pundit shows during the week after, and all the cutaway reaction shots to prominent Black politicians. For a non-Bill Clinton lover like me, this is manna. This is a visual orgasm.

Bill Clinton need to take that advice that Roland Martin from CNN gave on Monday.  Obama was not one to paint him a racist.  The Clintons thought the black community was not listening or watching, but they were doing both, intensely.  It was the black community that rejected the Clintons, Obama had nothing to do with it.  I can't tell you how many older, black americans told me repeatedly, Obama is nice but he is not ready, he can be Hillary's VP.  After the Clinton Show, these same voters was shocked at their treatment towards Obama and voted for him.  This is what happened.  Bill Clinton need to go on a "whine tour" and speak frankly and directly with the community that shunned him.  He will get an eye-opener.  But he does not want to do that, that is beneath him.  He want Obama to clear the way for him to go back into this community, but it won't be the same.  The blinders are off.

I just want this OVER with.  Good, Obama gave Clinton a speaking slot which he snatched, good let him say his peace so we can get the hell on with this.

Al, I'd be delighted to see HRC step up and start giving McCain the same treatment she gave Obama in the primaries.  Think how scrumptious that'd be.  And, unlike Obama, McCain really can't take the kind of beating she'll dish out.

The Clintons truly are knocking on the door of political irrelevance in national politics, and perhaps they've now had time to prepare for the transition to Gen X.  If so, the passing of the torch would actually move me to tears.  If not, we'll all just have to grit our teeth and muscle through discord at the convention.  It won't kill us, but I'd rather go all misty-eyed about a Clinton-era Obama-nation reconciliation.

I've already amazed myself with a newfound ability to watch debates and listen to speeches.  Perhaps I'll actually watch the juicy parts of the convention, computer at the ready to keep up with the real news right here.

I'm part of the group that is too young to remember the Clinton Era, so I went into the caucuses/primaries with the general idea that the Clintons were great people, passed on from my family who was old enough to enjoy the Clinton Era.

But then I started to pay attention to Bill, Hillary, and her campaign. And in the end, I didn't like it. You know what? This doesn't make it much better. I respect Hillary to an extent, but my trust and likeness of the Clintons does not go far.

I don't think Obama should let Hillary do every little thing she wants to do. Let these kids [Bill and Hillary] know that this is no longer their party, and they don't get whatever they want anymore with a snap of their fingers. They're like toddlers who have to learn their limits.

 I would not give up my vacation money to help HRC, but I would donate $20 to help her if she helped BO. The day after she conceded and endorsed, I sent her a little money. I will do it again - some may think me dumb, but, it would be worth every dime, imho. The day the PUMA website started, I went there to try and understand, there is no understanding them - more McCain trolls than real PUMA's. They do not represent the women, they represent hate. It is another part of 'operation chaos'.

 Go Hillary, show us what you got - I am counting on you to do a great job for the future of all women & children -  while Barack gets a rest!!!

Al-hope the Denver training is going well.

One quibble: Saturday, Aug. 16 is the day both Obama and McCain will be visiting with Rick Warren for a few hours in California. My money is on a VP rollout on Tuesday, Aug. 19, when the medal event winners from the previous day probably won't break onto the front page.

Al, The talk is the south has changed, more Latino population as in the rest of the country. Wouldn’t bill Richardson bring more to the campaign then a single state or region? Is it that two people of color can’t be on the same ticket?

Palo - For all we know it could well turn out being Richardson. The existence (or lack) of chatter about one name or another as potential VP nominees says little to nothing about what the nominee is really thinking and what his vetters are really doing.

If it does end up being Richardson, I wouldn't presume it's because it would be some kind of play for Hispanic American votes (as we saw in the early primary polling, most Latinos are as unfamiliar with him as other demographic groups are; his apellido certainly doesn't indicate it) but, rather, because the message field in the campaign is already so much on the turf of his expertise: energy policy.

Likewise, if it's not Richardson, I won't presume it's due to his color or ethnicity. He has a lot of history going "off message" and committing what the media calls gaffes. As with any other option, we don't know what the vetting process is or is not revealing about matters political and personal. And he drew early fire from some in the Clinton camp, such as James Carville, whose attack on him seemed devoted specifically to poisoning him from the vice presidency.

In the pros and cons surrounding Richardson as VP, his ethnicity and pigmentation aren't usually mentioned as a top reason pro or con.

But he is from a so-called swing-state, and possibly could help the tipping point with a couple of other states out there. Also - he is kind of a mix of the two extremes that the campaign is trying to choose from outside the beltway/change etc. (yes) / lots of experience in political world (yes). And a governor.

But my preference still is Schweitzer.

KD

In recent conventions, the keynote speaker has gone on to be the next nominee. So I'm super curious about that one.

I think Obama's skills as a mediator, both as a community organizer and as an Ill. legislator, haven't gotten as much press as it should. So it's no surprise to me that he knows how not to personalize disputes. He's not a sore winner and displays no tendencies towards holding grudges. So I presumed the drama was mostly media speculation; I've seen no effort on Hillary's part to undermine Obama since the primary was conceded.

Amid the summer doldrums, circuses can help some folks, but I'm far more interested in watching the final two months unfold. To me, the real concern is not McCain but late-inning surprises from the Cheney White House, designed to boost McCain. Such as:

a) terror convictions

2) 'finding' the anthrax killer

3) troop withdrawals beginning

4) attacks on Iran by the US or Israel

5) Oil price manipulation downward from Bush's pals, the House of Saud, and

6) killing Osama Bin Laden.

The first two, of course, are already being played.

I also meant to say that I loved this post and its point was proven to be spot on by the fact that after it was published we heard that Bill Clinton will speak on Wed.  So it will be Hillary on Tue, Bill on Wed, and Obama on Thurs.  The comments over on 538 have been interesting on this.  First, you have the fact that Bill Clinton's approval ratings are in the toilet - presumably it is in his interest to improve these.  Second, he really does want to restore his image among the AA base.  So will his speech serve these purposes. Third, Al mentions above that Hillary will play by the rules and will be able to be controlled by the Obama campaign.  With Bill, however, it does seem to be another story.  Several commenters mentioned the story of the 1988 convention where Bill was supposed to speak for 15 minutes and he went on for an hour (and he was a 2-bit governor of Arkansas then).  So how will he be controlled on Wed?

And finally, Wed is the night of the VP speech too.  Does Bill's speaking have any connection to that pick?  Introducing his wife?  Does anyone know if he's made up with his super-bowl watching buddy yet?

But whatever's going on, I think Al's right, that all of this is to keep us talking over the next week (along with the Olympics) and to try to distract from any crap McCain is about to throw this week (with the No. 1 attack dog from the campaign isolated on a beach somewhere for 9 days).

It will be very interesting if Hillary and Bill emerge as the big Obama surrogates over the week (if they can manage to stop talking about themselves).  If they do, I will be among those who will help to retire Hill's debt.

KD

The more I contemplate a Schweitzer as VP senerio, the more I am starting to think that Obama's frequent visits to Montana make sense--and I think that with Schweitzer on the ticket Montana 'could' go for Obama in November.

So, the VP position could have already been decided six weeks ago--at least tentatively, and barring any skeletons in the closet.   The vetting committee could also already be cognizant of this.

If the above senerio is close to being correct, then this shows that Obama and company are really masterful at running a tight organzation, and controlling the flow of information.

The obvious difference is that Dukakis was a much weaker candidate running a very poor campaign; Susan Estrich, an unskilled campaign manager. Her tactical skills were nowhere near those of Plouffe. He's a strategic thinker. She engineered the photo op in which Dukakis wore that ridiculous oversized army helmet while driving a tank,; apparently thinking this was a good idea; apparently thinking this would make him look presidential (rather than like an overgrown boy or Rocky the squirrel). Since then, she has become a regular contributor on Fox News. Enough said!

Though Estrich had little control over Clinton, I have no doubt Plouffe has thoroughly assessed the situation and will have Bill corralled.

An interesting but not particularly relevant side note: Estridge was the first female editor of the Harvard Law Review. Obama was, of course, its first black editor.

I know that neither campaign wants to fire off its best ammo too early in the game, and so the McCain campaign or the GOP attack machine might save Rev. Wright for October. But all the whoo-hah during the primaries about how if Obama thought HRC used Rev Wright against him "just wait until the Repubs get a hold of it" might turn out to be a whole lot of nothing. 

I think if McCain decides to roll it out just before election day after months of saying nothing about it (or winks as the Swift Boat types do the dirty work for him), it will come off as desperate.  Thoughts?

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/08/tickets-for-obamas-conve...

I would be surprised if October didn't see the McCain campaign throwing the sink, the countertop, the refrigerator and the stove at Obama.

So yeah, I would expect to see the "Remember, Obama went to a scary black church!" ads come up then.

Well, I do think that we are in for an October surprise of some sort.

McCain has shown that he is not above using racialized coding (the Brittany/Paris show) to stoke anger and fear on the part of the white working class.

CounterSpin's show this week features Adam Serwer, the guy that penned the  Prospect essay on  Obama and race.  It  it worth reading and listening to this guy, he's sharp.

All the while, the O-man runs a pretty clean campaign, focusing on the issues, not devolving down to McLame's level.  There are plenty of skeletons in McLame and Sinful Cindy's closet that Obama has decided not to bring up--and the corporate media choose not to bring up.

But if McLame decides on an October surprise, then I am sure that Obama will response strategically, while appearing to be above the fray.

Al and Fielders--according to Drudge,  John Edwards has admitted to having an affair.

No, I don't take pleasure in seeing this--however, there was always something totally fake about the guy, the man that spends $400.00 on haircuts while he pretends to be a 'populist'.  Also, his voting to allow Bush to illegally invade Iraq didn't signal to me that his core instincts and general ethics are very developed.

I am not trying to box all politicos in the 'purity' metric--but Edwards has a habit of making bad decisions that end up hurting people.

My thoughts go out to his wife.  She's had a tough few years and she certainly doesn't need this shit.  But she did, indeed, get her 'trophy' husband--with all the baggage that comes with people that fit the 'idealized' version of 'American' perfection.

Lastly, I thought his entire 'jet-ski' thing was lame--playing on the most infantile, consumerist desires of the unwashed masses.

Yeah, call me a jaded snob--but I am not the one looking for $400.00 haircuts.  That could buy a lot of beers--or pay for a week-long camping trip somewhere here in Florida.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/8/115557/4023/828/564642

As a strategy, Hillary filling up the week by going after McCain has the potential to be very good for both her and the Dems. But I think the embarrassing Greek Drama aspect, combined with "who knows what my supporters will do," works against this optimistic read as a careful plan. I don't care if she gets on the ballot, but I do think the drama of it reeks of a starlet who tries to pull the spotlight back even as the drama and audience move on without her. This isn't any sort of vast evil, more mildly embarrassing. "Huh? You're supposed to be crafting a speech wherein you as party elder send the next generation forth with your blessing, not trying to tapdance one more encore, oblivious that the audience has disappeared." Sorry, the whole drama, what will the Clintons do aspect seems to work against the Clintons, and I don't see them embracing it in a "take one for the team" spirit.

As Stevens notes, John Edwards may sap some of that news, which seems pretty much a wash for both Obama and Edwards as the media gets a sex scandal, complete with gestational calendar.

I missed the first part of her "rally." The part I heard was more about all she has done - which by the way Obama also supports - than knocking down the McCain lies. Anyone else hear anything?

Looks like Edwards has been working furiously on his own little hubritic drama, eh?  And to think this guy was going for the jackpot.  Maybe this is why he pulled out of the race so quickly?

Well this should keep the networks busy for Obama's vacation. Along with this and the olympics, McCain sure won't be able to attract their attention at all this week.  I do feel somewhat sorry for Elizabeth, however, if the timeline that they are reporting is accurate, then she knew of the affair and STILL supported his run for president.  What if he had won??!!  Incredibly selfish- thank God we've been saved from another Bill Clinton.

No drama Obama 08!

KD

Anne - I saw the Hillary event in Nevada and she did great. She laid out a passionate case as to why everyone should vote for Obama and she placed emphasis on fair pay for women in her address. She stressed Obama would stand firmly for women's issues and contrasted that to McCain. Thumbs up from me for her job as a surrogate on the stump for Obama and the audience was fired up.

@ Orlando:  also from that Diary...McShame and his minions are secretly trying to paint Obama as the "Anti-Christ", which would be laughable to many of us, but apparently is important to a lot of evangelicals--as in another reason not to vote for Barack.

Another part of that diary is quoted below.  If you want to find out about the petition, see below, and then make up your mind...we're going to have to help Barack on so many levels...

www.matthew25.org/TheOnePetition.htm

"The McCain Campaign seemingly has no positive approach and outreach to Christian Voters.  So they have chosen the most despicable tactic they could cook up.  To use people’s faith to scare them.

We are doing everything we can here at the Matthew 25 Network to call out the McCain Campaign.  Our petition renouncing this ad has several thousand signatures.  But we need yours.  And, we need your help in making the petition go viral.  Sign here and please tell your friends:

www.matthew25.org/TheOnePetition.htm

Next weekend is the Saddleback Church Faith Forum - and John McCain should have to answer for using people’s faith to demonize his opponent before the forum.  Please sign the petition to call upon McCain to pull down this ad and renounce the tactic.  Tell John McCain that we won’t stand for these fear-mongering tactics.

And please consider support the Matthew 25 Network with a donation on Act Blue so that we can continue our work.  We are only able to continue because of grassroots donations from folks like you.

Thanks for the recs, tips, signers, and donations!

Grant,

Matthew 25 Network

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!