Guest Editorials from When the Sky Fell in 2007

This makes me sad because I like Open Left. But it seems to me that the bloggers at OL would rather be right than win.

Heh, during the end of the primaries I had some fun calling out Jerome Armstrong's hackery involving pretty much anything.

 

I've just gotten to the point where I read Jeromes stuff and assume the exact opposite of what he says, it works out pretty well for me, lol.

Hey Al.  I just dugg your post.  Keep up the yeoman's work.  We must get the Chicken Littles out of the roost. There is too much work to be done on the ground.  I just received 48 pages of potential volunteers for our little team--which only covers one ward in the small city of East Point--in long-shot Georgia.  Ours is now a largely volunteer-driven effort in Georgia.  I think we will be up to the task.  Will keep the Fieldhands up-to-date when I can.  Arelle_dee, from what I understand, I think we will be on the same team now.

Mikell Hagood

Oh, Al! What would I do without you. You are the voice of reason amongst all these folks who think they know best what Obama should be doing. They're on the Huff, the Kos, Politico ... kevetching on and on, hand-wringing and whining. It's driving me nuts. After an interesting day dealing with third graders, I come home to browse my political favorites, only to become equally depressed with the lack of ethics/class of McBush and the end-of-the-worlders on the Left telling we're toast if Barack doesn't do thus and so as THEY WHO KNOW advise. You are the best for us anti-Chicken Littles.

Go Obama/Biden - Your ground game is going to kick ass. This little teacher will continue to send in the dinero and support you uppity elitists all the way to the White House.

I am getting whiplash from watching the Chicken Littles flap back and forth so many times. Is it just me, or are they really out in force today?

It is sort of like the movie Groundhog Day where we cycle through the same set of reactions again and again, with some people apparently having no memory of the last time they did this. Or the half dozen times before that.

(I hope this was meant as an open thread for venting about Chicken Littles, LOL)

 I would have dropped out by now if not for you. Everytime I start to freak out even a little, you write the 'word' and I know it is just my emotions taking over, I read your words, go back into my head and realize this is our moment in time. Thank a higher being for Al Giordano! I threw a little more in the Authentic Journalism fund today and hope other readers will do the same.

@Christi.  We are winning without a doubt.  Let's stay away from the doubt-mongers and keep our focus on what we are working to achieve.  The forces being unleashed by this people's campaign will be hard to tame and contain in coming years;  that is, if we see things over the long haul.  Are fieldhands just going to go back to mundanity once this campaign is over, win or lose?  Or are we going to  continue to organize and mobilize for change in communities across the land?

 

Mikell Hagood

Long time reader, first time poster. Al, you own. You really do. I've been saying these things for a long time now, including quite recently over at TPM (http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/09/its-happening-were-you...) But I'm glad as hell that you put the "evidence" out there. People really need to calm down. The sky is not falling, the end of the world is not coming. We are simply in a slump right now, but not an eternal one. Those who cannot see this need to wake up. Polls fluctuate. Especially now. We've never dealt with the circumstances surrounding the current polling environment before. The Conventions were so close to each other that, in my personal opinion, we won't start seeing anything worth paying attention to until very late September to early October. Again, great job, Al!

Thanks Al, as always, a voice of reason.  I am so excited to canvass in Nevada this weekend..This will be my first time.  I live in So Cal, and I call on all Californians to get their butts over to Nevada and help Obama win this state.  I plan on doing this every weekend up until the election...and then of course party in Vegas on Nov 4th when Obama becomes our next President.

 

I am so done worrying and waiting for the next big news story or gaffe...and Al, you have been a big part of making me get off my booty and make a difference.  I read your post on Kos, and well, it inspired me to do two things:  Stop fretting and start action.

 

Californians need volunteer support housing, so if you live in Nevada and want to help, please go to the Obama website and sign up for Nevada volunteer housing...we dont take up much floor space!

Thanks Al

 

7 people from my precinct in Alexandria, VA, got together tonight. Two of us taught a few of the others how to use the online neighbor-to-neighbor tool, and we are going to knock on every damned door in this precinct as long as it takes until November 4 to get the turnout and performance of this precinct up -- to a min. of 75% each (went 65% in '06 for Webb), hopefully 80%. Low hanging fruit and voter reg for the first few weeks, then back for the undecideds and even Republican leaners.

Get out in the field and talk to your neighbors. Work with your local Obama staffers -- if you show initiative and drive and want to essentially run your own field precinct, they will assist you and let you run wild. The tools are there. Perseverence, energy, and hope are the fuel we, the people, have to supply.

I'll even admit that I'm worried about Obama's inability to get his message out sufficiently in the current bullshit media stormage, but am looking forward to the debates focusing the race for the stretch run.

 @Mikell, yes thanks, I am a "Fieldhand" for the long haul now, no turning back.

Are people still Chicken Littling?!?!??!  How much time do they have to waste that they're not doing anything constructive toward actually winning?  While some of us are helping their sister run for committee person [she lost :-( ] WHILE heading up the local campaign efforts, dealing with stroking local political egos and incompetent if well-intentioned volunteers, to the point of her having to be put on high blood pressure meds.......  You know what?  Never mind.  I don't give a shit what their problem is anymore.  Excuse the obscure pop culture reference but "Bored now."  ["evil" Willow on Buffy the Vampire Slayer]  Just go away already.

Christi et al - To those of you on the ground in Nevada...

You say, Christi, that you wouldn't be able to do what you do without my words.

I say that I can write my words because I know y'all are there in Nevada, and everywhere else, making a miracle posslble.

I sit each day in front of an electoral map and run scenarios.

Here's a couple of "bad news" ones:

Let's say, hypothetically, that the East Coast returns that come in first on the night of November 4 show that McCain wins Florida, Virginia (and with them North Carolina and Georgia) and, gasp, even New Hampshire...

And then McCain wins Ohio (but Obama wins Michigan).

Well, then it becomes a long night. Now, the Mountain time zone comes in and McCain wins Montana, North Dakota and, oh no, New Mexico (but Obama still wins Colorado). It's over, right?

Nope. If you pull it off in Nevada, it's a tie score, 269-269, and a fighting chance in Congress.

Just the same, let's say everything I've just outlined remains the same, but Obama loses Michigan, Colorado and New Mexico... but wins Florida.

Guess what it comes down to?

Nevada.

There are a hundred other scenarios that Nate spins by computer and I spin in my poor head-ached brain. And what is going on in that one state - and in a healthy number of other single states - keeps hope alive. And any combination of which may pull off the miracle of a generation.

So it's symbiotic, this inspiration. Keep it up. 

The similarities are almost uncanny. The silent ground game growing steadily while the other side flails to control the daily news cycle. It's inspiring, but the difference are there.

The Iowa Caucuses of course were held almost four months after the posts Al sites here, but the Obama campaign today is so much stronger and leaner than it was one year ago. After six months of a heated primary has made this team extremely efficient and the roots that it forced the party to develop are already paying dividends.

To my mind, there's only one way to convert dem CLs out there, "If you feel that way, come bang on some doors with me, my friend." I'll tell you I was nervous till I went out to IN last weekend, absolutely no doubt today. The Oracle (Nate) has it too close says I!

And that's why, while we toil away for Hope in Virginia, I pitched a little more to Authentic Journalism.  We all need to stick together and keep our heads cool and pain-free.

I wish I had some quotes from the many armchairmen and fear spreaders that littered the blogs during the primaries.  There were some doozies let me tell you.

 

You have done such a great service for all of us and have provided such a refuge of sanity.  Partly because of you I have been able to survive this thing with my nerves in tact knowing in my heart that this is divine.

Still has some fighters here too. It's going forward inch by inch, door by door and call by call. We are going to do everything we can to avoid that gasp Al. IF nothing else McBS is going to have to come back here more times. But it looks a little different than that on the ground.

Just got back from Young Democrats meeting at Berry College in Rome, GA. About a dozen students and half a dozen professors there, most are getting involved from this point on. The former field organizer was pulled out to an undisclosed state, but a volunteer couple have already pulled up the slack and with their group are canvassing, phone banking, registering voters at flea markets, high school football games, and at the piggly wiggly (ha).

There's talk of a road trip to Oxford MS for the debate - 16 days away now. Should be a lively scene.

Keep up the good work!

you simply rock

After being pretty inspired by people like Christi Demuth and others here and elsewhere online, I've contacted a VA office for a week of volunteeer work.  Their western most office is about 9 hours drive from me, but I've got a lot of vacation time.  If you are making a big trip like this to a swing state, offices often have host housing available for your time there, to keep your expenses down.

I live in Mount Horeb a bedroom community of Madison, WI and we are pretty much on our own out here.  I have a community organizer who is great but it really comes down to our team.  We have scheduled one canvass and one official phonebank each week (all listed on mybo).  We have a monthly open mic night at a great local cafe and we just reserved the big upstairs room of the local brewpub for debate watch parties and a party for Nov. 4th.  I am doing a voter registration table at this weekends brewfest and am also (as soon as I get approval) doing voter registration at the local farmers market.  I am a voter registration deputy for the state.  I have also committed to start spending at least one hour a day making calls.  We are still have some trouble getting volunteers to make calls & canvass but it is improving somewhat.  Any suggestions on other actions we could be taking would be appreciated.  Not much time left.

I assume you saw the embedded image James posted in the previous thread.  I know you'd dig it.

 

And don't forget Omaha in your scenarios.  How would that be for the mother of all tiebreakers?  Is there any way to guage if that's really possible?

Well, since you have introduced the Way Back Machine, I think we can say that it's time to have some fun with the McCain/Palin jump the shark fest. It's time to return to the cartoons of the 60's to explain what is taking place.

“Palin, The Latest Revelation (with an audio that will knock at least one of your socks off)”

http://msa4.wordpress.com/

We have known all along that the repubs would get a bounce out of the convention. We should be happy that in the high point of the bounce we are still essentially tied. Tied according to the polls, that is. I tend to think that there may be a few "Iowa surprises" in store come election day. Or where else were the polls totally off? Wisconsin?

We have also known that McCain was going to go negative in a big, big way. The campaign has known this too. They have thought about what strategy to take when we got to this point for months. I have a feeling that they have a few tricks up their sleaves.

Hey Al, you gave us the "bad" senerios, just to end on a high note, give us one of the best. Oh nevermind...Landslide! It is still possible, I think.

 

I have to say, I don't get Arianna Huffington.  She runs a pretty good portal, and can get some good analysis in there sometimes.  But the likes of Paul Begala and Deepak Chopra(!?) keep seeming to clog up the space there, and by god if it isn't all a bunch of "should" this and "should" that.

 

Her column today, though, takes the cake.  Obama should be more righteously angry!!  Look at this clip of Don Cheadle being righteously angry - America can accept righteously angry black men, see?!  Also, here are some quotes from Jon Cusack telling Obama to be more righteously angry!

 

It's insipid, name-dropping, and insufferable.  Worse than Camille Paglia's entirely predictable column today about how Palin represents the highest form of feminism based on *two speeches* she's given.  (Newsflash, Camille, the right wing will *always* have room for women who hate women, just like they'll always have room for Alan Keyes.)  The only good thing about Arianna's piece is that it links to another from Paul Slansky (author of one of my favorite books of all time, The Clothes Have No Emperor), who says that Obama SHOULD reduce his entire campaign to one word: ENOUGH.  Which, come to think of it, he did in Denver (I was there, I know he did) and just yesterday with regard to the LipstickOnAPig-gate, so I don't really know what the point of that article was.

I look forward to volunteering in the coming weeks here in Chicago, as well as for a day or so in Virginia when I'm out there at the end of next month for a wedding, and the day before the election in ... wherever I'm needed!

 

Al, I know that you are just making sure that we understand the "worst-case scenario" but I'm going to say that if Obama wins Nevada, it's hard for me to see a scenario that he doesn't win New Mexico (or maybe I'm just trying to stake out my own territory, either way...)

On the 269-269 number, in most cases, I'd say that Obama has an edge in Congress, despite the fact that the Constitutional method for a tie-breaker seems to favor the Republicans:

Right now, Democrats have a majority of House seats in 26 states, there is only one state where that majority is in question (Mississippi) on the Republican side, there are there are 19 states where they control a majority (at least one of them is in question, Alaska, and in Ohio and Nevada, there is a possibility of forcing a tie in number of house seats) the final 5 are tied, where it's possible for the Republicans to pick up Kansas and where the Democrats could, ironically, take a majority in Arizona).

While it's possible that, if Obama were to lose the popular vote, some Democratic representatives in red districts might err on the side of voting "the will of the people" (if only in their districts) most of these Democrats will be concentrated in states where it simply won't matter (states like Texas, Utah, Kentucky, etc.) the only ones I'd worry about are North and South Dakota and maybe Tennessee, while the Republicans would have to worry about Delaware.

Last night I got the disappointing news that my team's field organizer is leaving. That was tempered by the good news that 175,00 new voters have registered In Georgia this year. He said there were only 40,000 new voters before the election in 2004. That is positive. We are making progress bit by bit . My team is keeping to our schedule of phone banking, voter reg, and canvassing. I keep reminding myself & my team that we are it. Peter (field org) helped us and we will miss him, but it's really up to each of us to do it. We are the groundgame. I am so glad I don't have cable or satellite tv. That definitely helps me not succomb to CL syndrome. Glad to have broadcast though. Obama was on letterman tonight. Cool as a cucumber, good proportion of funny to serious. I highly recomend it!

Imagine how all of us in Iowa felt last summer when all of these Chicken Little/Chicken Shit posters wrote off Obama and were basically planning the coronation of Queen Hillary.  All I know is that the campaign never strayed from the ground organization strategy and that's not easy when your guy is 20 points down.  Thanks Al, for always helping to keep us in check and away from the cliff.

Starting Sept. 25--OSEV, One-Step Early Voting for Barack, register and vote in one fell swoop!

I applied for Camp Obama last night and am looking forward to spending the next several weekends in Nevada registering voters and getting out the vote on election date there too. I have learned so much here and feel confident because of you Al and everyone else's insightful comments. Thanks for helping so many of us get on the phones and off the couch and now driving hundreds of miles to hit the pavement. Together... we can win this!

Al, my first longtime partner and I used to call ourselves Mr. Peabody and Sherman.  I was Mr. Peabody.  "Come along, Sherman."  "Gee, Mr. Peabody!" he would reply in his best June Foray impression... good memories.

Christi, other CA Fieldhands and I are focused like a laser beam on Nevada.  I will be on the ground there as much as possible, and when I'm not, I'm organizing my portion of my congressional district to phonebank their brains out.  Early voting starts there Oct. 18th, and I will be there.

We will accept nothing less than a blue Nevada on November 4th.  Nothing else matters.  The campaign has explained to me why NV is critical, and shown me that we have the strategy and tactics to make it happen, as long as all of us keep that focus.

 

Perhaps since the Repubs are all of a sudden so gung ho on protecting women our side should engage them in a conversation about women's issues.  Family planning (international and domestic), funds for preschools, Joe Biden's domestic violence bill, insurance payments for birth control, equal pay for equal work, etc.  What has John McCain done in his 26 years on the Senate to help women??  They want to talk women?  Let's talk women.

I have to say, I don't get Arianna Huffington.  She runs a pretty good portal, and can get some good analysis in there sometimes.  But the likes of Paul Begala and Deepak Chopra(!?) keep seeming to clog up the space there, and by god if it isn't all a bunch of "should" this and "should" that.

Maybe we should just start posting recipes there?

You are an oasis in a desert of insanity.  All the drama out there just grinds on me.  It seems a certain group expects a 100% landslide from day one, just skip the campaign, have everyone jump on, McCain withdraw, and Obama walk into office.  (But then, that's not an election, either.)  When that unreal and mind-boggling scenario does not occur, well, it must be a disaster and the work begins on self-fulfilling prophecies instead of working on solutions and applying effort.  Maybe it's my age, the fact I've seen so many elections and know the ups and downs are a part of the process, so I don't take it in small bites, but rather in the big picture.  I don't condone complacency, we all must keep working, but panic at every little hiccup is incomprehensible to me and gets frustrating to watch.

Again, thank you, thank you, for your level-headed reason, expertise, articulate explanations, and sharing the rational truths.  It's good to have a place to go where I know I will find honest appraisals.  There is so much at stake and knowldge is power.  You are the man, Al.

Never thought much about Nevada but that's where Chicago has aimed the attention of us SoCal folks.  So we're on it.  However this all shakes out, I'll be proud of our push for those 5 electoral votes.  Vegas, baby - I got a zillion calls to the 702 area code on my cel phone!

And here's that innoculation image again incase you missed/need it:

http://punditkitchen.com/2008/09/05/political-pictures-barack-obama-chil...

 

I saw below quote on Obama website.   First thought was WOW 6 million volunteers by election day.  I wonder how it compares to other election seasons.  Is this huge?

...deputy campaign manager Steve Hildebrand told the Boston Globe:

The climate has made millions of Americans who haven't been involved in a political campaign ever in their lifetimes very active. We estimate that 70 percent of our grass-roots volunteers haven't worked in a campaign before. . . . We're somewhere just shy of 2 million volunteers, and we think we can potentially triple that on Election Day.

I'm another one of the many California-based volunteers working to bring home Nevada for Obama.  I've made one "Drive for Change" trip so far and will definitely be spending Nov. 1-4 getting out the vote there.  If I can, I'll make one more trip during early voting.  Otherwise, I'm helping to facilitate Camp Obamas in L.A. and nearby cities every few weeks and phonebanking on weekends with no camps.

If there is ANYONE reading Al's blog who still hasn't dipped a toe into the volunteer waters (donations are great, but participating is even better), now is the time to JUMP IN!

It's intimidating for about the first 180 seconds (whether phonebanking or canvassing), but after that, it's pure excitement followed by a bit of exhaustion accompanied by extreme levels of camaraderie and exhilaration topped off with a giant dose of accomplishment.  It's a surefire cure for Chicken Little fever.

Go here to get involved!:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/actioncenter/

I have been banned from commenting at HuffPo - again - and don't feel like creating yet another persona.  Auto-Moderation has killed any pleasure I took at HuffPo.  You can't even use the PROPER NAMES OF THE CANDIDATES without triggering moderation, and the judgment of the "humans" overseeing the process there is unfathomable.  By the time your comment is posted, it is buried three or four pages down, and just trying to keep track of an ongoing exchange is exhausting.

Apparently any screeching baboon with an internet connection can toss handfuls of its poo at Obama all day long with impunity, but if you tell one of them to go bump p*ssies with Carly Fiorina, you're persona non grata.

If you're doing voter registration in Nevada (which in my experience is a lot more productive in places like Las Vegas than going door to door doing voter ID, since a lot of folks sleep during the day), strongly consider doing voter reg. in front of the courthouse.  Nevada allows felons (in many specific circumstances) to vote, and most folks don't know that.  The courthouse is a good place to do that sort of registration work.

Here's what I am doing:

Taking a week off from work leading up to Nov 4, followed by drinking liberally in Reno somewhere.

Who's with me!

Al, reading some of those old posts brings back old heart palpitations. Especially the Algre stuff.

 

I sit each day in front of an electoral map and run scenarios.

 

OMG, Al has turned into a kind of Blofeld; a hidden control post somewhere in a country called América, sparsely lit with him sitting in front of a giant map with colors and arrows and numbers and stuff, plotting and steering his Fieldhands to strategic areas while Republicans wonder why it seems to come from everywhere... - some visual you're painting with that line!

Other than that, I don't see any reason for panic. Palin bridges and moose burgers and stupid attack ads don't really matter that much because they're inconsequential to people's lives. After Afghanistan and Iraq Americans should by now understand that you don't win hearts and minds with cookies and hoola hoop. The vast majority of people want a home, potable water, energy, safety, perspective for their kids and jobs. The candidate who makes the most convincing case that he's gonna provide for that, wins. And Obama is obviously that candidate because Bush is running the economy into the ground as we speak.

 

A little inspiration from Steve Jobs to remind what's important in life when the sky appears to be falling. A palate-clearer before the next eight weeks start in earnest.

Are these numbers made public somewhere.  I was just curious to see a listing for all states but so far have only found charts with a subset of states.

I think a slightly more likely scenario is that Obama wins all Kerry states, including New Hampshire, and then wins Iowa and New Mexico (which seem to lean heavily in Obama's direction) but still loses Colorado. Nevada then brings it to a tie.

has been rendered unreadable after the RNC. The panic I can handle, what gets to me is the contradictory advice flying from opposing zealots who act as if their half-baked armchair opinions is gospel:

• Obama needs to attack! Obama is attacking too much!
• Obama should focus on McCain! Obama needs to tear down Palin!
• Obama needs to reshape an entrenched media culture! Obama needs to play along with the media!
• Obama needs to focus everything on Ohio! Obama needs to focus everything on Colorado!
  
• Obama needs to use humor! Obama should stop trying to be funny!
• Obama needs 527s! Obama is getting hurt by filthy blogs!
• Obama needs to focus on McCain's character! Obama needs to stick to the issues!
  
• Obama should highlight Hillary! Why did Biden praise Hillary?!

Of course, a lot of it trickles in from the doom parade that is the traditional media, which many progressives still latch onto as if the rest of America actually watched that vacuous garbage. The sheer number of progressives who regularly watch Joe Scarborough just boggles my mind, especially since it obviously upsets them enough that they feel compelled to come to DailyKos/MyDD/OpenLeft and blog about how angry they are that, shockingly, a former Republican congressman appears to favor McCain.

Gail Collins rocks!

 

He’s going to lose! Sarah Palin is getting all the attention! The Republicans are so mean! Why isn’t he tougher? They’re calling each other up to discuss how doomed they are, vowing to move to Canada as soon as the election is over and the inevitable worst has occurred. Really, we evacuated several hurricane-prone states with more cheer and optimism. Cheer up, Obama-ites. You’re overreacting. I’ll answer all your questions as long as you promise to take deep breaths into this nice paper bag.

 

 

One of the great things about this campaign is that both sides are convinced they’re going to lose. Remember how nuts all the Obama people went when Hillary refused to concede? How suicidal the Republicans were when Obama was knocking them dead in Europe while McCain was tooling around in a golf cart with the president’s father? We still have nearly two months to go. The people who haven’t decided who they want to vote for by now aren’t going to make up their minds until the last minute. Just chill for a few weeks until the debates start and let the Sarah Palin thing play itself out.

 

and sent it to one of my email distribution lists...

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

That's the headline of yet another smart piece by Nate Silver over on 538.com.

The point?  Polls suggest that the public now believes that McCain/Palin is the change ticket, and they do so because of Palin's presence on it. Yet the public also doesn't think it really knows Palin. So the way to beat McCain/Palin is to hammer Sarah Palin.

I have come to believe that the Obama campaign generally knows what it's doing; it has a record of success that, as Al notes above, belies the fear of doubters.  If they have to go after Palin, Plouffe and Axelrod will go after Palin.

I note the Silver piece, however, because I continue to disagree with Al's assessment that Palin is a distraction and a sideshow.  Since her arrival as part of the McCain ticket, she has become the one way that McCain can win this thing.  That's not a distraction. Even if Al hasn't figured this out, my guess is that team Obama has.

I love the idea of standing outside of a courthouse and will suggest that immediately to the field office staff!  It might also capture people who were dealing with home foreclosures or divorce proceedings (and had new addresses or new names).

When I canvassed in Vegas, the campaign staff at the field office structured things so we did canvassing door-to-door in specifically targeted areas (mine was a high density, government housing project) in the morning, and then stood outside of highly trafficked areas like the local Wal Mart and in shopping mall parking lots in the afternoon.

The door-to-door allowed us to knock on the doors of the houses that the voter rolls said LACKED registered voters to capture those who had never participated or who had moved since last registering.

The mall/parking lots gave us some variety (and was physically easier than going door-to-door) and contact with lots of people, but stores would frequently kick us out of the area in front of their properties (which isn't illegal in Nevada).  But when we could stay there, it did result in lots of conversations and a good amount of voter registration and new volunteer signups.

 

Generally, the Obama campaign is now doing what it needs to do to win.  Shift staff from areas that are going to stay red and move to where they can turn the state blue.

As far as Palin--I think that the campaign needs to sully her image as a 'reformer'.

They know what they are doing.  Pretending that Palin doesn't exist would be foolish because she is McLame's 'game-changing' trump-card.

There will be time to shift the momentum back on issues--but Palin needs to be adroitly delt with.   The more exposure Palin has, the more see will appear as extreme and out of step with the country, just like McLame.

Still confident that the numbers will turn, especially the debates will make a huge difference.

 

I agree with Nate. Palin must be taken on and the Obama campaign should clearly demonstrate via advertising, surrogates, and candidate speeches that she's been lying about the plane and the bridge and that they misued her powers of office. And that should be clearly tied to the Bush record of lies and abuse of power and also to McCain who has been trying to pass her off as a reformer.

A tag line like, "They're trying to fool us again - For real change, vote Obama-Biden" would be very effective, since most people know that the Bush administration lied us into war.

 

 

 

 

In defense of Deepak Chopra, he wrote a column about how Palin represents Obama's "shadow" (countering his idealism and positive message by appealing to people's worst impulses) that I thought was really interesting.

www.huffingtonpost.com/deepak-chopra/obama-and-the-palin-effec_b_123943.html

But otherwise I agree that the HuffPo site lately has been overrun by armchair quarterbacking of the most annoying kind. 

In light of Nate's excellent post this morning on Palin, I appreciate even more Obama's brilliant "lipstick on a pig" remark.  In a direct, folksy, humorous manner, Obama got right to the heart of McCain's strategy to use Palin to make his otherwise laughable 'change' argument credible.

That's the real reason the McCain campaign was so angry with the remark.  It isn't because of supposed sexism directed at his running mate; it's because Obama is exposing the lie his campaign is founded upon, and he's doing it in a way all folks can easily grasp.

thanks for the post, al. perfect response, reminded me of Barack's yesterday. He was great on Letterman last night, too!

It looks like the western strategy Al has been keying on recently is starting to shape up.  Look at the Return on Investment graphic at fivethirtyeight.com!

1. Colorado 16.6

2. Nevada 12.1

3. New Mexico 12.0

4. Ohio 3.9

5. Virginia 3.7

And the top "tipping point" state is now Colorado with a whopping 45%!  I may have to revise my MI-OH-IN vote from a couple of posts back and switch it to CO-NV-NM.

New Quinnipiac Poll Results for Battleground States

Florida: McCain 50 Obama 43

Ohio: Obama 49 McCain 44

Pennsylvania: Obama 48 McCain 45

 

 

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1212

Something to be aware of . . .

TWO-MINUTE WARNING ON VOTING MACHINES: Welcome to "SPEED VOTING"

USA - Diebold/Premier says it's too late to fix a new voting machine 2-minute warning and "time-out" feature, which can kick voters off the machine, forcing them to accept a provisional ballot. At least 15 voters were booted off the machine in Johnson County, Kansas recently, and Diebold/Premier says this is due to a software upgrade which sets a timer on voter inactivity. According to the company, the machines receiving the upgrade are used in 34 states and 1,700 jurisdictions.* 

*This seems inflated, though. Unless the optical scan machines are also outfitted with a 2-minute warning, which doesn't make sense, it would seem that this should only apply to the DRE [touch-screen] states and locations. 

JOINING THIS PROBLEM TO MAKE IT BIGGER: 

A study on DRE allocation from Ohio indicates that it takes an average of four to nine minutes per voter to cast an average-length ballot, and ballots in many locations will be longer than average this fall. Each additional ballot question can add 30 seconds to the time a voter must monopolize the DRE. 

Diebold's 2-minute timeout kicks in when the voter does not make a selection quickly enough. (Welcome to 21st Century literacy tests.) 

According to a Sept. 10 Kansas City Star Article, Johnson County upgraded touchscreen voting machines with a new software release from Diebold subsidiary Premier Election Solutions Inc. Buried in the release notes was a mention of a new "time out" feature that makes the voting machine eject a voter card if there has been no activity for 150 seconds. The machine emits a warning sound at 120 seconds. 

You can read the full article here: 
http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/14307 

Read more here: http://www.blackboxvoting.org

When asked if US troops could withdraw from Iraqi cities by the middle of next year, he said that would be "doable". (emphasis mine)

snip

He said he did not know that he would ever use the word "victory": "This is not the sort of struggle where you take a hill, plant the flag and go home to a victory parade... it's not war with a simple slogan."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/middle_east/7610405.stm

Wasn't the old man accusing Obama of never saying about victory in Iraq ? That he would be guided by ground commander about the troops withdrawal. Looks like Petraeus is agreeing with Obama - both on victory and the time line.

amk

al, i'm sure you've had plenty of me gushing about you all over the tubes to anyone who would listen... but i can't fucking stop because you save my sanity every single day.  i get sooo angry at the pantywaist naysayers that i feel my cynicsm start to creep up and that makes me a less effective volunteer. but you always bring me back.

i think i've established by N.C.L.L.B. Academy credentials, so i'm going to risk two questions i hope you'll see are NOT signs of me panicking, and that you'll answer:

1) while i'm not concerned by the national polls, i am surprised by them.  not by McSame's bump overall, but by his huge bump in independent support.  the Rethug convention and his running mate pick were both SO partisan, that i'm wondering what independents could have seen recently that they could have liked so much, at least for the moment.  any thoughts?

2) since panic is a useless emotion anyway, even if facts "warrant" it (which they do not in this campaign thus far), i wonder: IS there any situation you can envision in the next 50+ days where you, Al, would start to "panic"? (you don't need to specify what could be.) and if so, would you tell us, or would you keep it to yourself and try to keep the inmates calm?

p.s., a (paraphrased) note to Josselyn:  "You're so evil.  And skanky.  And I think you're kinda gay!" ;o)

Al,

I was wondering if you can provide some of us campaign novices with some information (non-classified) about how a campaign gets their internal polling.  I never hear of any people getting polled by a firm other than those we already know about.  So how do they get their own polling done? 

Also, I was planning to go to Georgia to work with registrations the end of September. I am making the airline reservations this weekend.  Now I'm hearing that the organizers are pulling out and that it is strictly volunteers.  Do you think it would be better for me to go to Wisconsin or Indiana (I live in Chicago) than Georgia?  My sister would love to do this volunteer work with me but would like yours or other Field Hands advice on this if you have a minute. 

Why dont you call the Chicago HQ? They would know best where you are needed, wouldn't they? Especially in light of your question about internal polling.

First, I would love to see Katie's take on Palin. What are younger women thinking about her? Those voices were often left out during the primary and I hope we do not see that again.

 

Second, I've said this before, I've been a feminist for 20 years and this is the first time everyone and their uncle is talking about sexism. Where were all these people as poverty was being feminized in this country? Where is the outrage about the Senate refusing to give women equal pay for equal work as they just did? 

 

It is time to take feminism back from the perversions it has suffered in this election (as a political strategy to justify Clinton's entitlement, and now its appropriation for a conservative, racist and misogynist agenda).

I made this request of all of you at the end of the last thread and I hope it is alright to do so again. I think it is important for all of us to write to PBS and Ifill about the VP debate urging them to NOT be sexist. Palin sinks or swims on her own merit. If she does well, then this should not be presented as a freak of nature. If she does not do well, then she should be allowed to fail without a lifeline. It is time to call the Republican bluff. Palin must be treated as any male candidate for this job would be treated.

Ifill has an historic opportunity. I think about all those women who came before us and who made what we take for granted possible. 70 years is a long time to fight for the right to vote. 400 years is a long time to have your enslaved womb used to produce labor while you have no right to be a mother to your children.

 

Is this how it will happen? An unqualified woman chosen for this post (while the standards are changed for her) as the gendered and racialized alibi for racism and misogyny: comparing a qualified Obama to an unqualified Palin as a way to emasculate him, i.e., anyone is more qualified than a black person, even an unqualified (white) woman, and if you say anything about it you are sexist not to mention the fact that white women must be protected from black men.

Is this what those who came before us fought for? To get the "I wanna fuck her" vote while being further objectified for a racist and sexist agenda precisely because of one's lack of qualifications? What does that do to the many qualified women out there, both Republican and Democrat?

 

This debate is very important and represents an important opportunity I believe.  

 

 Nate has Georgia as being a safe GOP state. Projection McLame +11. I think that could be one reason all the staff is pulling out to swing states that could go blue. He has Indiana as likey GOP but not safe, projection as of today McLame +7. Wisconsin is likely DEM projected at Obama +5.9. I would say IN or OH which is leaning GOP McLame + 2.7. They would be the closest best bets for you to make a difference. Virginia is a place that could use the effort. It is rated almost the same as NV right now, leaning GOP with McLame +2.8 & 2.6. Maybe your sister would meet you in VA or OH?

One again, we see the perils of peaking too soon-for the Republicans.

Sarah Palin is a walking, talking trainwreck that people are looking at while driving by. There is a lot of rubbernecking and curiousity, right now, so the polls are reflecting the "drive-by" nature of this phenomenon. Unfortunately for the Republicans, this is early September, which in analogous to a trainwreck with rubbernecking that takes place at 5:30 am. It slows down whatever traffic there is, but there is plenty of time to clear the wreckage in time for rush hour. This needed to happen a month from now, when they could easily influence final voting behavior, and could perhaps stall the press until after November 4th, hoping that the worst revelations would come out then.

One month from now when it starts to count: How many people will say to themselves, I want that doddering fool and Miss Trailer Trash Barbie to run this country for the next 4-8 years? Right now people can indulge their interest in her without having to make a decision about her. As we all know, there's a difference between a fascinating blind date, and actually going down the aisle.  The Republicans now have the attraction, but have yet to make a case that this should be a marriage.

About big leads: my take is that most elections are close anyway regardless of who's running-landslides are rare and usually only in situations where the offenses are so egregious or the challenger totally unknown. An Obama-Palin match would be a landslide.  Obama/McCain-besides any racial factor, there is still an abiding respect in some circles for McCain and a belief that he is some sort of moderate. So plenty of people still like him, and the polls are close.

Still, the Republicans have peaked too early-so early that the scandals have a chance of reaching a breaking point just before the start of early voting a month from now. Obama wisely sees this, and is probably retooling for the final push right around now while the public's attention is elsewhere. If you notice, he isn't doing big rallies, but town halls where he can spread the word about his policies to skeptical crowds about now-making the sale, so to speak.

Click on my name, and it will take you to my voter defense wiki. I could use a lot of suggestions for topics and links. I will even get people to join and help-an informed voter is an effective voter!

 

In at least a couple of the instances you have listed above, I think it is prudent to examine the source and what that source has to gain... or lose.

The Obama campaign from the beginning has done an admirable (I think) job of clamping down on outside influences and controlling the Democratic message of the campaign.  He hasn't enlisted the services of the NetRoots as deputy field generals as they would have liked and for good reason.  

We've seen what can happen when the left's narrative is hijacked from the candidate -- the Bristol birthed Sarah's baby story is an example.  If those smears would have been directly linked to an endorsed, yet semi-independent, Internet media outlet, it would have been damning.  Instead, the Obama campaign maintains more than just plausible deniability -- he can condemn Internet rumors (as he has done repeatedly) and maintain the high ground.

I personally think -- after the failures of the past two presidential elections -- that the Netroots expected to have a higher place in a future administration; to at least be recognized as the tipping point that put a Democrat in the White House.  I'm sure their political sensibilities have them firmly in the Obama camp come November, but I doubt this has progressed as they would have preferred.

Given the fact that -- even considering the difficulties the country has encountered under 8 years of Republican reign -- an African American male has positioned himself as the favorite for the presidency less than two month before the general election, I'm willing to give Obama's team every benefit of the doubt.

He's the horse that got us here -- and he's a damn strong horse.

IMHO & with all due respect: Clear eyed realism is not CL.  Most readers of AL's blog  are Obama supporters.  If you want O to win, get involved in GOTV. That is all that matters.  ALL THAT MATTERS.  I echo Ben Alpers and others: Palin is not irrelevant. And I would like to add, being aware of her relevancy is not CL.  She is a factor and she should not be underestimated. Obama will still win.  But it will come down to the GOTV. This machine is untested. The voter reg efforts are untested.  The "attrition rates", the GOP voter supression efforts, all of that will be a big deal in this election.  All that matters is GOTV.  Even here in Tennessee, where the stats for an O win are not so great, we are pushing to get 1000 volunteers mobilized for the GOTV effort in my town alone. And I think we are going to hit that number.  If you never watch another news show again, never read another website again, but help in GOTV in your state or a swing state, then you will help him win. Poll watchers - learn the rules.  Attorneys - volunteer for voter protection efforts.  The repub gotv machine in Ohio is incredible. Lock step agreement and group think are not going to get Obama elected.  Strident, I sound.  Strident, I am.  Get out the f@$%#*g vote. :IMHO & WADR

http://blogs.reuters.com/trail08/2008/09/10/mccain-finds-it-tough-without-palin/

What a wimpish coward and a cowardish wimp !

amk

 270towin.com  It is where I went to run the scenarios Al described last night. It is a interesting tool.

I have to believe that the Obama team thinks AZ is in play; a new field office just opened here this week in Phoenix and the excitement it has generated is phenomenal.  I don't get out of the city much, but I do know that southern AZ, which includes Tucson, is very blue, and definitely Phoenix proper is Obama territory. In 2004 B/C bumper stickers were almost as plentiful as K/E in the city.  This year I've seen 2 M/P stickers and countless Obama stickers.  The local buzz on our progressive radio station is that the McC camp is very worried he may not hold on here.  Which would absolutely rock!  And yes, I am heading down to the new office today to report for duty.  I so want Obama to beat that nasty little putz right here in his own front yard.

Oh and one more thing, my boss who is an independent voter and was for Hillary in the primaries, told me today that with the unbelievable awful pick of Palin there is no way he could vote for McCain, so "he's been pushed" to Obama.

On the purely anecdotal level, there are two Republicans in my life whom I plumb to get a vibe on how things are playing in "Middle America," a place/perspective I've never felt I've understood.  One is a friend of my mom's, a hardcore fiscal conservative, and he emailed mom the day after McCain announced Palin to tell her that not only did he NOT support McCain, he was now offically FOR Obama.  The other is my 67-yr-old mother-in-law.  I think she voted for Bill Clinton 2 times and GW both times [completely disillusioned with him now] so a real bell-weather in my book.  She liked Palin's speech, but she thinks lipstick thing is completely idiotic.  So far, I think she's still leaning Obama.

For my fellow chicks in the crowd, just got this in my in-box: http://womenagainstsarahpalin.blogspot.com/  If you'd like to add your thoughts as to why Palin is NOT for you, email them here: womensaynopalin@gmail.com.

 

Carpediva - lol!  I miss those shows.

 

Mitchell - Love the image of McCain and Palin as Boris and Natasha! 

Particularly since I get the vibe that he likes her more than she likes him.  As Olberman says, "Saving democracy, one mock at a time."

 

I feel for you guys who are losing your field organizers, but let me tell you, we in solid-blue states never even had a shot at any outside help and we're running fundraisers, opening offices, buying all our own supplies, organizing road trips to neighboring swing states, etc with zilch support.  It's totally "doable" - to quote Petreaus.  :-)

I don't comment much because when I am interested in learning, I listen/read more.  In the past year, I have learned more about what real democracy means than any civics class from reading this site.

Thank you Al for your knowledge, pragmatism, calm and wonderful analysis during this campaign.  I will drop a little sumthin' sumthin' in your jar.

Now, back to learning!

Cheers...