Very nice piece here. I've been tracking the demographic for my site / blog and McCain has a big big problem. He has not been able to get out of the very low 30's for lots of individual state polling, and nationally he's been stuck in the 20's

There was also a study that agrued that Kerry got more than the exit polls showed. The study argues that Bush walked away with the traditional upper 30% support while Kerry carried a traditional 60% range. Pre-Election state polling showed a big difference than the Exits.

McCain's challenge in my opinion is not winning the demographic, but rising up to the "traditional," Republican support. He won't win it, all he can hope for is the same showing. In 2006 Republicans only garnered support in the low 20's much like McCain is getting currently.

Turnout is the key. With only 7-9% of the voting population in this demographic coming out to vote each year, at the current 3 - 1 ratio it still isn't good enough for Democrats. IMO, Obama isn't aiming to win the group, he's already done that, he's aiming at turning out the vote. If he can get leaders to ralley support, then NM, CO, NV, could be locks, AZ can come into play an TX will be a headache for McCain.

http://www.ourhispanicvoices.com

That study I mentioned.

http://faculty.washington.edu/mbarreto/papers/2004vote.pdf

Will Bill Richardson bring home the bacon for Obama ?

Al - Thanks for covering this difficult issue and for referencing your earlier post on the merits of the failed legislation.  I have been opposed to "amnesty" for illegal immigrants mainly because of my oldest son's inability to earn a living wage in the construction industry here in Texas due to low wage undocumented workers.  As I read your previous post, I finally began to see that legalizing those workers would have the effect of raising wages, since companies would not be able to get away with paying organized citizens such a pittance.  I'm thinking that legalization could be good for the working man in general.  If we follow Obama's example, organization is where the power is.

"If a party gets lost in the mixed signals, it can pay the price at election time; just ask Ken Mehlman."

Ah, those pesky mexed missages...

I can't tell if you were being sarcastic or not, Al; but the idea that President Bush speaks spanish is a persistent myth. Bush's success with Latinos was driven, in my opinion, by his promise of lower taxes.

The impression I've always gotten is that many diehard GOP voters think of La Raza as a "radical" or "pro-amnesty" organization.  I'm wondering if there will be an uproar on the right if McCain shows up at La Raza and doesn't deliver an anti-immigration (and/or anti-immigrant) polemic.

It seems that going to La Raza is a no-win decision for McCain, so I'm surprised he's going - there are a fair number of anti-immigrant voters in the GOP base (as evidenced by the crazy positions many candidates took during the GOP primary - I mean, who thinks that deporting 12 million people is a good idea?).

F. Sanchez - I've watched GW Bush being followed around by C-Span cameras and when he encounters Spanish-speaking folks he steps right into it without missing a beat. I'm fluent in Spanish, and frankly he does it much better than many expat gringos living South of the Border! Surprised me, too.

Al,

Interesting ---let's hope the meeting results in some substantive dialogue. The Democrats would really have to screw this up in ways that I can't imagine for the Latino vote to go to McCain. And just curious, but were big name Republicans invited and decided not to attend? Those are some heavy hitter Democratics against McCain by himself.

You mentioned that George Bush speaks Spanish.That explains it -- I knew it wasn't English I've been listening to for 8 years.

"With only 7-9% of the voting population in this demographic coming out to vote each year..."

Holy crap.  I had no idea hispanic turnout was that low!  The amount of potential power there is enormous.  If enthusiasm for a VP choice could up that number, the impact would be huge. 

The thing that has always fascinated me about the immigration debate is how it completely transcends party lines.  Both parties are fractured on this.  American workers first versus cheap labor and supporting a culture of immigrants versus xenophobia.  I just read Obama's chapter on immigration in The Audacity of Hope and, as usual, he wants nothing to do with the catch phrases associated with all these arguments.  He wants workable solutions for all. 

I was just listening to a Dane being interviwed on Thom Hartman and I was just struck by how they seem to operate to actually reach consensus and solutions.  The goal in this country has deteriorated to digging in and trying to "win."  In which case, nobody wins because there is never any solution. 

Now whether you agree with Obama on FISA or not, this is an example of that philosophy at work.  He feels that there is enough to work with in the new bill that he is willing to compromise on the rest.  I don't think that means he is willing to compromise away all of his principles, but he is a solution seeker rather than a beautiful loser.  (I'm not trying to open up another FISA discussion...just using it as an example.)

For expanded Kossack commenting pleasure.

Being a direct descendant of 1) people who were forcefully *immigrated* into this country in chains as well as 2) the original people from whom this country was stolen, and whose 1st husband was an East African Muslim who can here to go to college (not BHO, Sr. LOL), I have a unique perspective on *illegals*.

The xenophobia from the right has bothered me to no end.

Sad story:  remember when the right MSM was all up in arms because an *illegal* without a driver's license killed a *real American* woman in an auto accident a year or so ago?

About six months after that, a 2nd/3rd generation Hispanic family was practically wiped out in an auto accident by a *real American* man who was driving drunk.  The family was driving back from a soccer match for one of the daughters; the van was hit, and the parents and two of the three girls were killed.  Not a word from the right MSM.

I have listened (via NPR, etc.) to all sides of this issue, and I am still on the side of amnesty for many many reasons; and also like Our Candidate, interested in working on the reasons why so many people feel the need to leave their homeland in the first place.

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

There is a very common misconception in the media, traditional and blogosphere alike, that GWB speaks Spanish.  He /doesn't/.  Tossing around a word now and then does not make him anywhere close to fluent - he can't carry on a basic conversation in the language. 

To think that a man who slaughters his *native* tongue would be able to speak a second one is laughable.

Joey - ¿Como sabes lo que dices? ¿Has tenido chance de escuchar al tipo conversando en castellano alguna vez? Yo, sí, y concluyo que su español no está mal para nada (aunque no le hace una buena persona, ¡claro!)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/al-giordano/obama-mccain-immigration_b_109...

On Kos, after the video (about 2/3 through the story), there is some sort of break error. The text is all about 2 inches to the left of the text above the video.

And perhaps more importantly, it won't let me read comments at all.

Laura Dew - At least it looks fine on my browser. How's it look now?

Can read comments and everything.

dewberry

Barry Crimmins goes to bat for donors trying to get their money back from the ex-hosts.

I think this is a real chance for Obama to basically push the latino vote totally away from McCain.  Plus, at the same time, not alienate moderates who have some xenophobia and don't want "illegals" to not have to pay a price.  And as you say, this is the only issue where I felt some agreement with Bush.

The key is to use the word amnesty as in "not amnesty", point out a path is open but there is a price to pay, and most of all, declare some form of punsihment against businesses that go out of their way to find and hire (including arranging transport across the border) aliens without documentation just because they can give them subsistence wages.

McCain can either do some me-tooisms or he can go the opposite direction.  If he goes the opposite way, he may soothe some of the base, but he will push away almost any latino vote left, and moderates who aren't xenophobic won't be happy with him either.

I hope that Obama speaks first.

@BR: a small point. it's really not "La Raza." that habit of calling NCLR "La Raza" is a Lou Dobbs trick of stressing a misperception about the meaning of "La Raza" which people like G Gordon Liddy LOVE to tell people means "THE RACE" in order to push fear buttons about non-latinos being overrun by mexican "racism" etc....

La Raza has a very special and specialized meaning. "our people" i think of it. which does not to have anything to do with percentages de sangre, etc. but a solidarity of purpose and view, perhaps. anyway. 

---

Al, Sanctuary members are sending candidates questionnaires (i think they went out today), as we are also looking to get insight into their views on many things related to the border, ethanol, hate groups, etc. i will post a link when we get responses.

like the post. agree that the issue is really obama's to take or lose at this point. i heard him say good things at a time it was risky, and during the primaries. i hope he hews the line further, instead of backing off. that...would definitely be quite disappointing.

Texas Lyceum (???) poll;

Obama: 38%
McCain: 43%

Senate:

Noriega: 36%
Corynyn: 38%

 MOE 4.5

If the voter turnout among Hispanics in TX is as low as the poster above notes, GOTV could really put Texas in play.  It's a dream I have.  I would love to proud of the state I was born in and the home of the Cowboys. : ))

Here is a write-up on her speech and it looks like she said some good stuff. It wasn't much reported on this Spring but compared to Clinton, Obama was much more outspoken during the campaign about the widespread discrimination of Latinos due to the unresolved immigration issue. But due to some of their loyalty (right or wrong) to Bill Clinton, her giving this message today will make it hard, if not impossible, for McCain to cut into Obama's 62% of the Latino poll numbers.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/26/clinton-plays-obama-surro_n_109...

I like it when you report on things both related to latinos, immigration, and latin policy. It's an area where I'm sorely uneducated so the insight is appreciated

Look who else is buying a new Macbook...when you gettin' yours, Al?

Note: If you haven't already...hit the donate button up top, friends.  Our guy needs equipment that won't start smelling like burnt wiring and plastic at the big party in Denver. Wouldn't that be embarrassing, Fieldhands?

Here is a funny take on I-wanna-be-number-two Carly Fiorina. The best line:

Pro: Unlike McCain, knows how to run a computer.

Con: Ran a computer company into the ground.

http://www.236.com/news/2008/06/25/i_want_to_be_number_two_carly_7363.php

Guess it is now "keeping up with Giordanos".

BondiBeachViews

Tara said: "If the voter turnout among Hispanics in TX is as low as the poster above notes, GOTV could really put Texas in play.  It's a dream I have.  I would love to proud of the state I was born in and the home of the Cowboys. : ))"

The Cowboys? As in Jerry Jones, and the face lifting of "America's Team?" Remember, Obama is a Bear fans; I can tolerate that out of tradition (as a Packers fan); but the Cowboys? 

Well, I guess all politics is local....

My PayPal a/c just got cleared and contributed $ 25 right away. Another $ 25 when I get Deb's check.

Warning:  More off than on.

Al - After posting comments on Rural Votes requesting a refund as well as two emails to Deb, I finally got some donation money back.  However not what I requested; in fact, it was less than 1/3 of what I had sent in.  I will send you an email to get some dates on "Keep Al Writing" etc. but I thought it might be of interest to you and Barry and other Field Hands to know that this non-profit is continuing to nickel and dime this issue to death. 

amk -  that's hilarious.  Those darn cons!  I think in defense of Ms. Fiorina however, there are two sides to that story and to an outsider, it's hard to know if she was truly at fault or the scapegoat.  BTW, saw an article about one of the elected officials in India organizing a Hindu prayer session for Obama's success -  I'm sure you saw that story yesterday.

Tara - you mentioned only 6% of Latinos voted in 2004.  I guess I didn't realize that it was that low.  Where can I get that information and Al do you have any idea what % the Obama campaign is looking for to win in those states with a high population of Latinos?  You would think we would be able to get a total of at least 15% of the population registered and to the polls.

Hey all, I've only had the time to quickly come in here these last couple of days to get a pulse and I'm in awe of the types of conversations going on here. So timely, rational and interesting. Thank you so much.

Meanwhile, I'm happy to report that I received my $50 refund from Deb today and just made my first contribution to Authentic Journalism. Very kool that it's tax deductible.

I feel at a loss to post anything since it seems that I have nothing new to add. But know that there are many of us following along with you.

spanish. and he is pretty good. and as Al says this does not make him any better as a President but he does speak it.

Upthread--the statement that the low tax promise is what got hispanics voting for Bush? At first blush this makes no sense to me but would like to know what the rational for the argument is and if you have some data. Thanks.

kid oakland, one of the Field Hands, has this very good diary up with details of how the Obama Camp suggests the most effective ways to organize in your neighborhood using old and new tools and how he put it into practice.  I always really like reading his diaries as they are instructive, positive and informative.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/26/192231/564/517/542563

I haven't seen that prayer piece. We have got all kindsa crazy people praying for the success of their fav movie star's latest film release, for victory of their party in elections and Indian Cricket team's victory, for God's sake (pun intended).

But I can tell you that not a day passes here without some news (all positive) about Obama (and sometimes Clinton) in the papers and mags. But Zilch on the really old guy.

Like Al, there is a very straight-up guy in my state who has been writing and publishing a very popular political satire magazine for over 35 years. He skewers all types of pols with his sarcasm and wit. He is an over-achiever - lawyer, dramatist, comedy actor, public orator and a publisher. He has a cult like following including me.

And this guy has been pretty effusive in his praise for Obama (seems honest, idealist etc.) for the past few weeks, which is indeed a high praise coming from him. His take on Hillary - umm, she is not so trustworthy.

To Al,

I have signed for co-publisher account today. Two questions

1. When do I get that status ?

2. Would I have to change my screen name @ The Field ?

Tara @1:51pm,

I think the article was saying that only 7-9% of the total electorate that voted was Hispanic.  This is lower than their percentage in the population.  In fact Hispanics voted in lower percentages that the rest of the population, but if I recall from the Census Bureau stats, about 56% of voting age Hispanics who were eligible to register actually voted in the 2004 presidential election.  I think the National rate was 63%.  African-Americans voted at 60%.  I writing from memory as I looked at the CB pdf a couple of weeks ago.  But I think Hispanic registration and voting rates were lower than other major groups during that election.

Although it was difficult to find much that I could agree about with George for a long time, like Al, I also believe he deserved respect for his immigration policies which while not perfect and somewhat convoluted were at least not insane or punitive like those policies many of his Republican pals, and some Democrats were backing. Also, speaking now as an expat in a Spanish country, George also gets points with me even if he is only just trying to speak Castillian.  I appreciate that Al thinks George can meet and greet in la idioma, although I've never seen that because I don't watch TV.

How very nice it would have been if I could have found dozens more areas where I liked George's policies; how different the last 8 years might have been. Adios, Jorge.

It took about 24 hours for my account to be approved.

Regarding 'screen' name or handle or nick - I've entered my handle as a perminent 'tag' for the end of any comment I make - you'll love the extra features you get with a Co-publisher's account. 

BondiBeachViews

Here's the article.  A Democrats Abroad Chairperson attended the first day ceremony.  I Googled this just now and it came up under Sean Hannity's blog. Too funny!  His comment was "This just keeps getting more and more strange."   Yes, Sean, people in other countries DO like a U.S. presidential candidate - how strange indeed.

 http://www.hindu.com/2008/06/25/stories/2008062556031500.htm

Just got my status confirmed. Pretty cool and pretty fast too. Lotsa bells and whistles too.

Took your advice and tagged on my screen name as signature. Lemme see if it works.

Just call me amk.

Catherine - Thanks for the link - lol. Probably the guy did this, because his name is Bhama ? Oh, but for these religious nuts....

I too have heard Obama has a Lord Hanuman talisman.

My wife is a big believer in him (Lord Hanuman, that is).

Hey, this is just my signature - Just call me amk.

strange yesterday i posted something waited to see it and never showed so i tried again and again didn't see anything.

any chance it wasn't  something i did ?

I hope someone in the Obama campaign was listening to the KO show tonight.  I just heard the last part of a report on a veteran in a wheel chair who wound up in a homeless shelter because of the lag between  leaving the military and the beginning of benefits.  I think this could be a huge subject for someone to address - the gap between the  talk about supporting the troops and the actual support for the troops.

JoAnn

One problem as a co-publisher. Every time, I refresh the page (and I do that a lot !!), pop-up asks whether I want to navigate from this page ? Of course, I do.

Can you fix this ? (along with the white background thingy)

Hey, this is just my signature. Just call me amk.

Hope the link works

http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=174861

Hey, this is just my signature. Just call me amk.

Tony Horowitz wrote this great NYT Op-Ed two years ago called Immigration - and the Curse of the Black Legend. Those who needed to read it couldn't because it was behind a subscription. Now, he has just published his latest book about the history of the US most Americans know nothing about; namely, that we were Spanish before we were English. It's called "A Voyage Long and Strange: Rediscovering the New World." He reconstructs the voyages of early explorers by retracing their steps.

Horowitz was provoked into writing the book after a visit to Plymouth Rock a few years ago and talking to the park ranger there.

[T]hey ask, ‘Is this where the three ships landed?’” the ranger said. “They mean the Nina, the Pinta, and the Santa Maria. People think Columbus dropped off the Pilgrims and sailed home.” She had to patiently explain that Columbus’s landing and the Pilgrims’ arrival occurred a thousand miles and 128 years apart. “Americans learn about 1492 and 1620 as kids, and that’s all they remember as adults,” she said. “The rest of the story is blank.”

Horowitz realized he was no different, even after his tony education. (sorry for the pun.) "I’d matriculated to middle age with a third-grader’s grasp of early America." Hence, this book published last month.

So he has a widget test of your knowledge of American history on the book's website. Grab a beer and see if you can pass. :-)

The quiz was me.

Alexa.

amk,

The reason you are getting that question is that you have typed some words in the comment box or the subject line and not yet posted them.  That's the only reason I get that question.

 I got it. Since my signature preloads in the comment box, it asks the question when I refresh. Can this be fixed so that the signature doesn't load by default ?

Thanks Catherine. It was your tip about typed & not yet posted words in the comment box that got me thinking. Once I removed my signature from my profile, the problem went away.

I should have added my application was on a Sunday afternoon here in Australia during the first few days of the new Field, so it was probably late Saturday night in the Americas.

Commenting using your real name (and using a 'handle' is you wish) has a lot going for it - and, strangely, very liberating.

BondiBeachViews

BondiBeachViews

Yes, I clicked my name in my post, then edit, then put in my sig in the signature box and saved.

Does your sig appear in the comment box automatically ?

Hey, this is just my signature. Just call me amk.

Al's post on immigration is the first post on the political page at Huffington Post!  How great is that?

JoAnn

The immigration example

On a McCain conference call this afternoon aimed at contrasting McCain's bipartisan credentials with Obama's, McCain spokeswoman Crystal Benton chose an example that also makes the opposite case.

"It’s fairly significant that Senator McCain worked on the immigration reform legislation while he was pursing the nomination of his party," she said, adding that he "reached acrossthe aisle despite a heated primary campaign."

McCain's work with Kennedy on immigration was a giant bipartisan effort.

But the issue also showed McCain's own willingness to sacrifice his views to partisan pressure. He backpedaled fairly furiously on his immigration stance after the bill failed in June of 2007, and as the primaries heated up. And at the Politico/CNN/L.A. Times Debate at the Reagan Library this January, he said he'd vote against his own bill.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/

Tech help:How do I shade this with a border as a post from somewhere else?

My boyfriend is currently reading his Confederates in the Attic (at my enthusiastic recommendation). Which is an excellent book. It fills me with reader delight and writer jealousy!

A few days ago, I happened along Tony Horwitz's book site and book tour blog for his latest, A Voyage Long and Strange. I'll add this your link to my Tony Horwitz collection. [edited to add: I see after re-reading your post that you linked to the book site, too]

In Confederates, Horwitz juxtaposes history with current-day travelogue and reporting in Civil War territory. He's a spot-on observer of current  beliefs contrasted with what actually happened then... I look forward to reading his treatment of the breathless national mythology of Our Founding Fathers.

 On immigration reform.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUYTUbJy71k

Al,

You know the old saying, you can catch more flies with honey than you can with vinegar. For a quick resolution of the credential issue I suggest the following for your consideration.

Send an email to Rural Votes. In it, acknowledge that while you brought a lot of traffic to the site, they did provide a platform for you to use, for several months it clearly worked to both parties advantage.

Suggest the following:

1. RV turn over the convention credential to The Field

2. RV honor requests for repayment to any who ask for it

3. Upon receipt of #1, you stop blogging about the breakup.

4. You state that you don't control what the Fieldhands choose to do about their convention donations, but you will move on with your blog in the spot to discussing presidential, and I hope Senate politics.

5. RV adds a link to the Field, and The Field adds a link to RV

6. upon completion of the deal, you sum up the agreement for your audience which is understandably curious, including giving RV the chance to issue a statement on your site with their side of the story.

7. And then we both move on.

This may seem like bribery, whatever, it would be beneficial to get you to Denver, inside the convention. the most important thing is to move on.

Good luck.

Seems right to me, especially the part about him wanting to win, imagine that, a Democrat wanting to win!

"Barack Obama is a different kind of Democrat. He is one who actually intends to win.

I don’t know if he will or not, but I do know that he has made a key decision: He has decided to run as a candidate for president and not as the leader of a movement.

Movement candidates often fail when the demands of the movement come in conflict with the demands of politics.

The most recent example was Howard Dean’s (short-lived) campaign for president in 2004.

Dean was supposed to be leading a movement designed to “empower” citizens who felt locked out of the process. His slogan, and the title of one of his books, was “You Have the Power.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/11471.html