Law Enforcement, not Diplomacy, Can End Honduras Coup
By Al Giordano
Three days ago I suggested that yesterday’s announced “talks” between Honduran President Mel Zelaya and coup “president” Roberto Micheletti, scheduled in Costa Rica with Oscar Arias as mediator, “could well up being the only face to face encounter.”
Apparently I over-estimated the number of meetings by one. They never did meet face to face (See Kristin Bricker's reports of yesterday for details).
When, on Monday, I wrote that there was “nothing to negotiate,” that turned out to be exactly the case.
Meanwhile, despite some residual claims otherwise from the “Obama Coup Theory” sector, much US aid to Honduras has definitively been stopped:
The political crisis in Honduras has cost the country nearly $20 million in U.S. aid - and the price tag could rise if the dueling governments aren't able to reach a solution…
The suspended aid - close to $20 million - includes money for "programs that could be construed as having directly aided the government," State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said.
That means about $16.5 million in foreign military financing, international military education and training, and peacekeeping operations. The State Department has also suspended about $1.9 million in "activities related to basic education and some environment and family planning programs."
Some Republican members of Congress have criticized the Obama administration for siding with Zelaya, who they said was consorting with Venezuela's leftist-leaning president, Hugo Chavez, and violating the Honduran constitution by angling to keep himself in office, though his term ends in December.
Florida Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, wrote Thursday to Clinton asking her to restore the aid...
Didn’t some claim that if US aid were to be stopped, the coup would be over?
Obviously, that’s not the case.
(And spare me please the claim that if only Washington would use different language to define its cut-off of aid that the coup-plotters would somehow tremble and fold their tents: it's money that speaks, or the lack of it: not what its cut-off is titled.)
The coup regime instead turns to the private sector (and I use that term quite liberally to include both its legal and illegal branches) to pick up the slack: there is a levy to be waged from giving unfettered capitalism and its bastard child, organized crime, its own refuge and flag to fly over it in a hemisphere that has begun to protect itself against them.
Interestingly, the muscling of the business community, large and small, inside and outside of Honduras to back this effort began before the coup started.
The letter, above, was signed on Friday, June 26, two days before the military kidnapped the president. It is signed by the chief of the Tegucigalpa Chamber of Commerce (hat tip to Mima La Palabra). It says:
Given the political and economic uncertainty that our country finds itself in, it is necessary that Honduras’ private sector take urgent actions to support the defense of democracy and of social and economic liberties…
It is necessary that every business, at this historic movement, participate in the efforts that this Chamber of Commerce leads. That’s why we solicit a voluntary donation with the goal of launching a civic communications strategy.
Categories of donation:
Category 1: $1,000 US dollars
Category 2: $2,000 US dollars
Category 3: $3,000 US dollars…
Aline Flores
President
Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Tegucigalpa
Within days of the coup, the Miami-based Cormac Group – the “strategic consulting and lobbying firm” that defines its group as “recognized advocate for open and fair markets” and which represents big business interests, was pushing pro-coup op ed columns to major daily newspapers in the United States. On Tuesday, it hosted a press conference by Honduran coup leaders at the National Press Club in Washington DC.
The Tegucigalpa Chamber of Commerce letter also claims to its members that it will be "transparent" about how it spends the funds. Don't hold your breath. However, under US law, The Cormac Group had better have filed the papers as Registered Foreign Agent for these Honduran business interests with the Department of Justice in Washington if it wishes to remain a legal entity itself.
I wholeheartedly agree with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez when he said today that the “talks” in Costa Rica are a big waste of time.
There are two factors that will decide what happens next, and neither of them involves diplomacy: the first, will be in the efforts and self-organization of the civil resistance movement against the coup in Honduras (we will continue to make sure that when they make sure that the coup falls in the woods, everybody hears it fall). The second, is that the international community must continue to tighten the economic and judicial screws around the coup and its central figures, especially its business interests which have everything to lose with this gamble.
I’ll repeat what I said on Monday:
The hour approaches when Homeland Security Chief Janet Napolitano and Attorney General Eric Holder will have more to do with the next steps out of Washington toward the Honduras regime than Secretary Clinton and her ambassadors.
That Clinton’s diplomatic gambit with Arias was a non-starter should not surprise any careful reader here. One cannot fight crime with diplomacy. Now the question is: that tried and failed, what next?
Update: Kristin Bricker has the details on the coup regime's arrest of José David Murillo Sánchez, the father of 19-year-old Isis Obed Murillo who was assassinated on Sunday.
Update II: UN General Assembly President Miguel D'Escoto, no appeaser when it comes to the Honduran coup, sees the talks more optimistically than I do: "I hear we may be very close to a solution for the restitution of President Zelaya." It's one of those matters upon which I would rather be proved wrong than right, but I remain more skeptical.
Update III: Add sleaze-bucket DC lobbyist and 2008 Clinton campaign die-hard to the US foreign agents for Gorilla Micheletti and his Simian Council, according to Reuters:
the delegation -- which is receiving assistance from a Washington lawyer,Lanny Davis, to help with its public relations -- found a warm reception among Republicans on Capitol Hill including Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the Florida Republican and ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
If they hired Davis, it's only because the more respected power brokers wouldn't touch them. Davis is strictly a bottom-feeder.
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Comments
part of a multi-pronged strategy
Submitted July 10, 2009 - 5:20 pm by Laura M. PoyneerIf nothing else, the talks keep everybody busy while other avenues can be pursued. I wouldn't expect talks like this to have a quick resolution. That would imply that Micheletti was ready to give in and just needed an excuse and that is obviously not the case. By keeping the coup regime engaged with the talks on an ongoing basis, and continuing to increase the pressure in other ways, something might yet be achieved.
I think the U.S. has hardly given diplomacy a chance in recent years and I am glad to see the current Administration having the patience to see the process through, as long as they are clear about what actually is and is not being achieved.
Mediation
Submitted July 10, 2009 - 6:01 pm by Roy MartinI'm a professional mediator (and attorney) so I very much believe in the mediation process. However, it works only when both parties are willing and able to act in good faith. In this case, I question whether Micheletti is either willing or able (given what's riding for those to whom he must answer).
Mediation, like any form of alternative dispute resolution, can be misused in a variety of ways. Sometimes to hide information. Sometimes to obfuscate one's intentions. Sometimes to drag things out as long as possible. Sometimes to financially bankrupt the opposition.
I agree with Al's analysis that, ultimately, this comes down to how much internal and external pressure is brought to bear on the coup plotters. Would hate to see mediation be the pretext through which they drag this thing out while the energy of the opposition dissipates.
Am listening to Davis testify to the Committee
Submitted July 10, 2009 - 11:54 pm by Nalani McClendonright now. He's such a liar. And Otto Reich is right there with him. Going on and on about how there's freedom of press and no violation of human rights. blah, blah.
Payne asks about the negrito comment and Davis says that that guy got sacked. Then he says that Afro-Hondurans are coup supporters. Oy.
And, this hearing is sickening. They are railing against Chavez. Now, they're trying to state that the drug thugs are Zelaya guys.
And Barbara Lee is calling these jerks out regarding human rights abuse. Otto Reich can't answer it.
This is absolutely sick.
US media blackout
Submitted July 11, 2009 - 11:17 am by John O'Neill (not verified)Teachers are on strike and major roads are blocked by the people in
protest of the anti-democracy coup plotters in Honduras. Why is a huge part of the US news ignorning this important news? Could they be sympathetic to the coup plotters, but not the people?
Unlike most of the US news media, the NY times has a pretty decent article today:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/11/world/americas/11honduras.html?_r=1&re...
--------
The acting Honduran president/coup plotter Micheletti is Italian and
many of his fellow coup plotters also have European ancestors. Maybe they think that they are superior to the Honduran people and wish to treat Honduras like a colony, and Hondurans like slaves. Zelaya, like all the best world leaders love the people and want to serve them, not exploit and control them. Those like Micheletti, who want to help the rich get richer, at the expense of the poor, who want to maintain the old order with most of the people living in poverty, while the elite strut around in luxury, will all fall by the wayside. Their time has past. The time has come for mankind to eliminate poverty. To do that, we must eliminate unbridled greed, oligarchy and imperialism. Humanity is one family. The truth will set us free from corrupt and incompetent leadership, and from the wars and poverty that they create.
/J
xxxxxxxxxxxxx
July 11, New York times: "In Honduras, Mr. Micheletti’s foreign
minister, Enrique Ortez, resigned after calling President Obama
“negrito” — little black man. But Mr. Micheletti offered Mr. Ortez a
new post, as minister of justice and government, Reuters reported."
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/11/world/americas/11honduras.html?_r=1&re...
Sounds to me like the coup plotters are not only criminals, but also racists. Who would have guessed? ;-)
NYT fabricates 'cracks' in the OAS coalition
Submitted July 11, 2009 - 2:47 pm by Nell (not verified)Thanks, John O'Neill, for the pointer to the NYT story by Ginger Thompson. It is better than the run of big-media stories, both in reporting on the strikes and roadblocks by the popular movement supporting Zelaya's return to office, and in citing the apparently more accurate version of the results of that Gallup-CID poll (Reuters and Juan Forero in the Wash Post just repeated the results as reported by the proven fabricators at La Prensa. The head of CID can be seen on Voice of America announcing the results as the Times has them).
But, in line with the less-than-stellar reporting by Thompson early in the coup (repeated mischaracterization of the purpose and nature of the June 28 encuesta), there's this assertion, made twice in the story and not backed up by anything else she reports:
tiny cracks were beginning to emerge in the solidarity of the coalition of countries demanding the return of the ousted president ... There were also signs of discord in the coalition of countries demanding Mr. Zelaya’s return.
Immediately following that second sentence are quotes from the rightist Republicans in the Congressional 'coup caucus'. Does Thompson seriously expect Times readers to believe that the squawking of a few Republicans, now in decisive minorities in both houses of Congress, represent a cracking in the U.S. government's position on the return of Zelaya?
The U.S. government might indeed be folding its hands while these none-too-promising "negotiations" drag on, but this story provides no evidence for that, or for any sign that the Obama administration's position has changed.
John, your impressioin is
Submitted July 11, 2009 - 4:12 pm by Jauquin (not verified)"Cracks"
Submitted July 12, 2009 - 7:21 am by Al GiordanoNell - A quick comment...
I love it when major newspaper reporters think that any debate or discussion represents "cracks" in unity. They fail on the most fundamental level to understand that democracy involves perpetual disagreement and attempts to come to agreement. It would be more worrisome if an organization of 34 (now 33) nation-states always marched in lockstep. Considering the vastly different political and economic systems and realities in these 33 countries, the level of unity has been extremely strong.
USA - Honduras
Submitted July 13, 2009 - 5:46 pm by Samson (not verified)There is no doubt that the US has a great deal to say about what happens in Honduras. I have some respect for the argument that says that its better if we don't use it, but there seems to be very little doubt that the US has the power to do what it wants in Honduras.
Anyone who's ever dealt with government money knows that the cutoff of this year's aid some 9 months into the fiscal year is meaningless. Most of that aid was likely dispersed soon after Oct 1 when it became available. The threat to hold back next year's aid is more credible. And that's where there becomes a difference between an unofficial 'pause' in aid and a firm cut-off of aid due to the official determination that this is a coup. The 'pause' leaves much more hope in the minds of the Honduran coupsters that they might still get next year's aid. Calling this a coup and invoking the law that suspends such aid is a much stronger threat to withhold that money in the next fiscal year (Oct 1).
And, read the fine print of that State Dept announcement. The one thing they say clearly that they are not cutting off is aid for 'democracy promotion'. Now I don't know who the current recipients of that are, but its far more likely that the US gov is giving this money to the people who planned the coup than it is that its going to civil society groups that are in the street trying to fight for their democracy.
That's one of those details that strikes me as very odd. I'd have certainly thought that all of that money for this year was already spent. The coup plotters would have gotten as much of that money as possible long before the coup. So, why didn't the State Dept pause that aid as well. If its already spent, its a meaningless gesture that looks good. The sort of thing Democrats love. So, why that exception? Is the US gov still pumping 'democracy promotion' aid through groups like the International Republican Institute into groups that support the coupsters? Just one of those odd details that doesn't look right and makes me wonder what's going on.
Anyways, there's no doubt that the Obama administration has put remarkably little pressure on the Honduran coupsters. And that if they wanted to, the Obama administration could pretty much make Honduras due what they wanted. Between 50% and 70% of Honduras' trade is with the US. The second the US decides its unhappy with what's happening in Honduras, it can get what it wants.
Which to me says that what it wants is the coupsters in power and President Zelaya bogged down in ridiculous negotiations while his term of office runs out.
Which leads to the question, what can the left in the US try to do to change that?
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