Message Discipline
By Al Giordano
Jed has produced a montage of TV news coverage of Obama's visit to Las Vegas yesterday that serves as an excellent teaching tool on the power of simplifying a message and sticking with it. As if in unison, the TV reporters all said, "It's the economy! It's the economy! It's the economy!"
I just watched McCain and Palin live in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and McCain's biggest applause line was his statement that he would fire the SEC chairman. Okay, fine, a head on a stick - any head, it doesn't really matter - is always a great coliseum crowd pleaser, except that most folks don't even know what the Securities and Exchange Commission is or what it does. It's inside-the-beltway baseball and it counters the "outsider" and "change" messages that McCain is trying to co-opt. (Quick! Can you even name the SEC chairman?)
Also interesting is the report from O. Kay Henderson of Radio Iowa who noticed something at that GOP rally that reporters in other states where the duo has appeared have reported from those places:
I look up, about five minutes into McCain's address and see a steady stream of people walking out of the rally. They just came to see Palin apparently.
What does that mean? That despite the freak-show celebrity fascination with the Republican vice presidential nominee, she's failing to do the job she was tapped to do: Sell John McCain. That's a very bad sign for GOP chances.
The best part of all this is that it has ended (for now, until the next setback, which will happen from time to time in all campaigns) the annoying screeching and armchair quarterbacking by some sectors of Obama supporters in love with their own panic. They'll be back, though, as soon as they see an opening.
Meanwhile, I continue to marvel at the "no drama" discipline of Team Obama. Companies that sell anti-perspiration sprays are probably trying to figure out how to get some of them to appear in TV ads!
"They're a very good team, a very disciplined team, and I think they've got the right message," former Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson just said of the Obama campaign on Fox News (noting that he, of all people, ought to know because "they beat us").
The other curious thing that McCain said in Iowa today was a prediction that November 4 will bring "a long night." If Obama's grassroots army doesn't slack off and keeps working the ground game, that may turn out to be wishful thinking on McCain's part.
SurveyUSA has Obama up by 8 points in New Mexico. CNN-Time has him up by 6 in New Hampshire, and in a virtual tie in North Carolina (anybody else notice the Chicken Little complaints in recent weeks along the lines of "why is he bothering with North Carolina?" Yikes. If Obama wins there, it's going to be a very short night of uncertainty on November 4!) Selzer has him up by 12 in Iowa and in another "red" state many urged the Obama campaign to ignore, he has "a fragile lead" of 2 points in Indiana.
Other battleground states are close as close can be. If they remain that way, it's all gonna happen on the ground.
To paraphrase Kipling, if you can keep your message discipline when all others are losing theirs....
Update: Ambinder's got the new National Journal battleground state poll numbers:
Colorado: Obama 45, McCain 44
New Mexico: Obama 49, McCain 42
Florida: Obama 44, McCain 44
Ohio: Obama 41, McCain 42
Virginia: Obama 41, McCain 48
Update II: According to this AP report of Obama's appearance in Elko, Nevada, earlier yesterday, he's asking his supporters to have that same kind of message discipline:
In Elko, Obama tried to anticipate his critics and called on the crowd of about 1,500 to sharpen their elbows, too.
"I need you to go out and talk to your friends and talk to your neighbors. I want you to talk to them whether they are independent or whether they are Republican. I want you to argue with them and get in their face," he said.
"And if they tell you that, 'Well, we're not sure where he stands on guns.' I want you to say, 'He believes in the Second Amendment.' If they tell you, 'Well, he's going to raise your taxes,' you say, 'No, he's not, he's going lower them.' You are my ambassadors. You guys are the ones who can make the case."
And if they tell you "Obama must do (fill in the blank)," the obvious answer is:
"No, this is about what you must do."
Update III: Here's a fun little example of lack of message discipline, from the Des Moines Register about today's McCain-Palin rally:
Palin introduced herself to more than 4,000 at a rally in Cedar Rapids by saying, "It's so good to be here in Grand Rapids."
Palin began her day in the in western Michigan city where she also campaigned with McCain on Wednesday.
The mistake caused a momentary murmur from the crowd.
Oh, yes, Grand, uh, Cedar Rapids, we'll never forget you!


armchair quarterbacks
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by louisev (not verified)maybe the next time the polls take a dip the chicken littles can be inoculated with the above JedReport video. I notice they have virtually nothing to say over on DKOS when Obama is ahead and gaining ground. Hmmmm...
Prepare for incoming
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Nick (not verified)Republican Controlled
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Angellight (not verified)Republican Controlled Government Says:
“We don’t have ENOUGH MONEY to fix Social Security
We don’t have ENOUGH MONEY to fix Medicare
We don’t have ENOUGH MONEY to provide health care to ALL Americans
We don’t have ENOUGH MONEY to help out Americans losing their homes
We don’t have ENOUGH MONEY to help all our veterans returning from war
BUT
We DO HAVE ENOUGH MONEY to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
We DO HAVE ENOUGH MONEY to bail out Bears Stearns
We DO HAVE ENOUGH MONEY to bail out AIG
We DO HAVE ENOUGH MONEY to pay for an unnecessary TRILLION DOLLAR war
When the LITTLE GUY needs help, they scornfully say, “GET A JOB!”
But when of their BIG GUY CRONIES need a bailout, what do they say?
LET ME GET THE CHECK BOOK!”
"The Real Scoop On Palin’s Staged Town Hall Meeting — Another Pretend Moment!
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/
So, what was the catch? Unlike most town-hall events, which are open to the public, include diverse crowds, and no one needs an advance invitation, this event was for ticket-holders only. And the only way to get a ticket was through the local Republican Party, after an advance RSVP. No wonder Palin was prepared to play "stump the candidate" — it was a very friendly crowd that had no interest in testing her.
It doesn’t exactly sound like a vote of confidence in the candidates’ ability to answer tough questions, does it?"
How long will the GOP continue to get away with lying, cheating and deceiving the American people? McCain and Palin are frauds.
McCain Wants to Gamble With Social Security!
http://www.youtube.com/watch...
I'm feeling cautiously optimistic about
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Paul Stollerthe state of the race. Things appear to be going well and the Obama team seems to have a well thought out strategy that seems to being executed in a very focused manner.
I know we still have quite a ways to go and there will likely be small setbacks along the way, but things seem different to me than they were in 2000 and 2004, I am fairly confident we won't see a repeat.
With the fundraising goals nearly being met for VA, PA, MI and OH and the race tightining in IN do you think you'll be taking new donations for a side trip to IN?
I ask because I fear the funding raising goals for the first four will be met before I get paid tomorrow and I really wanted to contribute.
rick davis' deregulation crusade
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Ian Keenan (not verified)These economic speeches of Obama's seem to get more local coverage than national.
McCain really has a lot of gall (not a surprising allegation at this juncture) to criticize Obama for having a VP vetter that headed Fanny Mae (during the 91-98 boom years), that is, a VP vetter that was fired early in the process, when McCain's campaign manager Rick Davis was a longtime lobbyist leading the fight to deregulate Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac.
'McCain campaign manager Davis headed the Homeownership Alliance, a lobbying association that included Fannie, Freddie, nonprofit groups, real estate agents, homebuilders and consumer advocates. The group’s stated goal was to increase affordable housing. But it also worked to oppose congressional efforts to tighten controls on Fannie and Freddie.
'In July 2003, Davis wrote to the American Banker, taking issue with an opinion piece by Leslie Paige of Citizens Against Government Waste, arguing that Fannie and Freddie should operate with greater transparency.
'"Several of Ms. Paige’s assertions bear correction," Davis wrote, defending Fannie and Freddie on behalf of the group. "The GSEs are subject to an innovative and stringent risk-based capital stress test — the toughest in the financial services industry." '
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080716/pl_politico/11781;_ylt=Aqra8AQGuKZ7chQBIo7D5e2s0NUE
What Obama should do is call for Davis' resignation and have top Congressmen press the point so that the story has news legs, and of course throw in some commercials on the topic.
NV on NPR
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by James HaygoodA good story yesterday on the Nevada race on NPR - focusing on Washoe Co. and the uniquness of the Nevada electorate (think legalized prostitution and gambling...). I think they eare doing more today:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94729666
screwy numbers
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Absentee Bob (not verified)The Palin-McCain ticket
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by D.Quayle (not verified)Viewers on other blogs have said the VP referred to the 'Palin-McCain' ticket today. I don't think Obama can touch this but how can we exploit Palin being the de-facto head of the ticket and main draw?
About Spain
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Jim (not verified)Sorry if this is too off-topic, but I'm really interested in views about this particular issue.
According to a Huffington Post article - http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/18/mccain-meant-to-reject-sp_n_127... - McCain intended to reject a meeting with Spain's prime minister.
This sounds to me like a post-hoc rationlization (albeit a weird one). But because hostility to Spain seems so odd, might this also become part of the mix of McCain being out-of-touch, if not dangerous?
@ Paul Stoller
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Russell JosephYou can still contribute even if the initial goal has been met! More funds means more flexibility for Al on the ground to take side trips, make more calls, stay in more expensive areas longer if necessary, etc.
@Jim, He probably just misheard Zapatista
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by D.Quayle (not verified)but in his defense, nobody expects a Spanish Inquisition
Palin Turnout
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Alexa (not verified)I read a comment on some far-right Christian blog that I can't link to because I didn't save it that the churches are being urged to turn out for Palin rallies to show people how popular she is. Assembly of God congregations are being tapped to turn out for one of their own. It's a resentment against the media, and an attempt to show that the Rs doo-too have a superstar of their own. In addition to all the religious stuff.
Would be interesting to check the mega-church congregation numbers in the area of each rally.
Rosa Brooks Nails It
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Okke OrnsteinAt least, that's the way it looks from down south:
Read the whole thing here.
not only that...
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Jim StukasAl, that was hilarious about McCain's applause line about firing the SEC chair. You are of course right about that just being inside-the-beltway grandstanding.
But best yet, McCain can't even fire the SEC chair!
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/09/mccain-blasts-o.html
Keep up the great work.
Jim
p.s. Your contribution graphic must not update real time... seeing it at $3962, I contributed $50 to put you over the "top" but it seems to be a "lagging indicator"...
Jim: Re Spain
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by cdm (not verified)[Sorry for being OT but couldn't resist. Al, pehaps you can hold it until there are sufficient comments on the thread?]
Prior to the Zapatero question, McCain was asked about meeting with Chavez (Venezuela) or Evo (Bolivia). He said of course not. Then he was asked about Zapatero. Unaware of the current relationship with Spain (and possibly confused about the location of Spain in the map), he might have thought the question was a trap. He didn't know what to anwser, so he said he had great relations with Calderon, plans to engage with Latin America, and that "we will meet with our friends and stand up to our enemies". He repeated that about 3 times (when pressed by the journalist, who the third time said "I'm talking about Eurpe, Spain is in Europe"), just in case Zapatero was some communist dictator of a banana republic called Spain (next to Nicaragua, perhaps?).
So much for foreign policy experience.
And by the way, we Spaniards get pretty offended when Americans think Spain is in Latin America (we actually _discovered_ America, remember? ;-) ). The fact that the confusion is fairly common in the US is used as an argument in Spain to illustrate how "ignorant" Americans are. So McCain somehow reinforces that stereotype.
Anyway, I don't think this will have any serious consequences wrt diplomatic relations. But it's a gaffe, and could be used to weaken him on the "foreign policy expertise" argument.
Ha!
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Brendan CorcoranSpeaking of message discipline Kos's midday open thread continues a theme he's been pushing more overtly very recently: anti-chicken-little-ism. Spot on! Message discipline in the blogosphere--as in focus free of non-reality-based panic at every campaign challenge or poll shift--will really firm up positive narratives as we head into the debate cycle. The engine of this movement from the volunteer registering voters to the candidate himself, is really starting to hum.
crash course to crash
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Ian Keenan (not verified)Jim, McCain had no idea who Zapatero is, which throws a wrench in aides' narratives that he is trying to rekindle multilateralism. His foreign policy advisor Schuenemann is a pro-Iraq War wacko and is using this as an excuse to sever relations with a country and president that pulled out of the Iraq War. Like Bush II, McCain and Palin are getting crash courses on foreign policy by the neo-con hawks, which makes for a very dangerous situation.
Off Topic Sorry
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Stephen C. Rose (not verified)This is off topic, or tangental, as it does have to do with getting messages out.
I propose on my home page today that the Obama Campaign ask CSPAN for three half hours where Barack would discuss issues with people of his choosing -- like the economy with Warren Buffet, Health with Hillary or green economy with Al Gore. McCain would have the same option.
My guess is that this idea has a better chance of being picked up here than on my site.
Should the idea be impractical I would urge Barack to do it infomercial style.
Oh the hilarity
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Anonymous (Gemma) (not verified)So Palin talked in Cedar Rapids of how McCain/Palin would introduce some transparency in DC that she had brought in in Alaska...only problem was someone has already got there first... “We’re going to do a few new things also,” she said at a rally in Cedar Rapids. “For instance, as Alaska’s governor, I put the government’s checkbook online so that people can see where their money’s going. We’ll bring that kind of transparency, that responsibility, and accountability back. We’re going to bring that back to D.C.” There’s just one problem with proposing to put the federal checkbook online – somebody’s already done it. His name is Barack Obama. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/18/palins-transparency-prop...
Portland Tribune Poll of Oregon:
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Melissa (not verified)Obama rocked the house in NM
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Melissa (not verified)Obama on fire again today in New Mexico. My favorite quotes:
"McCain can't decide if he is Barry Goldwater or Dennis Kucinich!"
"Now that this disaster has hit, John McCain is calling for the firing of the Security and Exchange Commissioner. Well here’s what I say: In 47 days, you can fire the whole Trickle-Down, On-Your-Own, Look-the-Other-Way crowd in Washington who have led us down this disastrous path. "
Ouch!
Good News from Sam Wang at Princeton & Nate Silver as well!
Submitted on September 19th, 2008 by Elizabeth Duverthttp://election.princeton.edu/2008/09/18/the-palin-bounce-ends/#more-1147
Obama Pulls Ahead in Electoral College Projection
No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!!
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Russell JosephBrilliant, D. Quayle, brilliant! I hadn't heard a Monty Python reference in a looong time. Made my day.
538 and the Spanish Inquisition
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Catherine CainElizabeth, I was going to link 538 but glad you did it with the siren too!
Russell Glober - lol -- Spanish Inquisition... Perhaps after this (if the right guy wins), they will put an age limit on running for President. If there is a criteria for being too young, there has to also be a criteria for too old. McCain is struggling to keep up with events in the world. Hell, I'm much younger than him and I'm exhausted every day just following this race.
good news!
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by Heather aka gratitude (not verified)I too came here to mention the great new polling projections on 538! And to congratulate Al, and all of us, for his swing-state tour! WOO HOO!!!!
And appreciation to everyone GETTING OUT THE VOTE and GETTING OUT THE WORD for OBAMA, which is, simply, our job.
Heather aka gratitude
The siren is cracking me up
Submitted on September 18th, 2008 by rikyrah (not verified)The whole Spain thing isn't a small thing. He didn 't know what the hell he was saying, and rather than admit that, is willing to risk an international incident with a country that has been supportive of us.
McCain is NOT qualified to be POTUS.
Two high-fives to Chuck Hagel for gutting Caribou Barbie like a fish.