New Swing State Numbers (and What We Can See In Them)

OH is interesting. It seems only Rasmussen is showing McCain leading there while all other pollsters are showing either a tied race or Obama leading.

However, if Rasmussen is right then it seems no matter what Obama says in OH it won't make any difference. Seems like they're more concerned about the "black man issue". May be someone with more better understanding of OH could answer this: how many votes are there in the conservative part of OH? And how much margin Obama need to build up in areas like Cleveland/Cinci/Columbus?

I am wondering, myself, whether there is any real momentum behind McCain's bounce, though.  Sure, some uncommitted Republicans decided to get on the anti-abortion bus, but getting republicans is what he might have done in the next few weeks anyway as the decision closes in.  What I am wondering is with Florida tied up now, what might more news of Palin's connection to Jews for Jesus do to cool off the Jewish vote down there?

and P.S. thanks for your earlier blog, I tried to draw some attention to your Netroots blog but didn't get any notice for it... your scolding today has already improved things immensely over at DKOS!

I am getting poll-whipped. Yesterday I found a great Gallup which conviced me in a macro way that Barack looks good to win. Today I ran a page on on Obama ground activities drawn from just over the weekend -- pretty much the same sort of organization thoughts I read here.

I can only reiterate what I keep coming back to. This will be won on fundamental issues that will become clear as we complete the process. I have one very good authority for this. Barack. His interview with KO may strike ofhers as the height of complacency, but I am a believer. This election is about moving beyond hissy fit politics. It is about reason. It is about politics as the art of the possible, with a Barack touch -- more grass roots, more participation, a wider donor base, plus his increasingly one sentence positions on the major issues. And Biden's capacity for underlining with feeling.

I do not concede Ohio or any other battlefield state. I do not write anything off. If Barack is right this will be won because he was right and because he is a throwback to politicians who had more grit than our recent losing crop.

Being of a certain age, I love it.

You may be onto something about Palin and Hispanic voters that the Obama campaign also sees. Somewhere today, and I'm sorry I can't remember where, I saw that Obama is increasing advertising in the Southwest.

I still don't quite get how Obama can do well enough to win IN without winning OH and MI.  Obama would have to do at least 5% but probably closer to 10% better in the parts of Northern and Eastern IN adjacent to OH and MI in order to win IN.  Southern IN is not going to swing strongly to Obama this year and there just aren't enough votes in Indianopolis and Lake County to make up the 20% gap from the 2004 election.  But if Obama is doing that well in Northern and Eastern IN, it is hard not to see him improving significantly in Western OH and Southern MI.  Both of these are areas that lean Republican - Obama doesn't have to win them but if he keeps McCain's margins down, he will win those states.  So I guess that I don't see the logic for Indiana as a decisive state - unless McCain fails to run any campaign there whatsoever (and since there is a Governor's race, he might be able to win without putting a lot of resources into the state).

This all makes a lot of sense and I hadn't thought about the Colorado "after the party" favors still paying off.  Would that be true for Minnesota for Republicans?  I have heard that McCain was doing non-stop ads there all weekend slamming Obama and Obama didn't have any ads up.  I would guess the campaign knows that their lead is solid there -even after the convention --and that Obama's ground game in Colorado is that much better than McSame's in Minnesota.

Like the SUSA Virginia poll, I am also curious about what AA polling percentage is in Ohio since that could be considered underpolled in the same way.  With such a significant AA population in most of the larger cities in Ohio, I would love for that to be a factor where perhaps it wasn't with Kerry.  I have to admit that Ohio has disappointed so often that perhaps the mental energy is not there for HOPE.

And it's worth noting that these numbers really look great from another perspective; based on the demographics in these states, I would think that Lipstick Bush will have little impact going forward and that real specific daily economic messages from Obama and his crew will resonate and those voters will vote their best interests. 

Just for giggles today, I decided to compare the two campaigns in Michigan, based on what I could learn from their websites.  I took Kalamazoo as my centre and looked for events 100 miles around it on each site.  I found 187 things I could do on Obama's page, most of them really practical things like canvassing and voter registration drives.  On McCain's site?  5 events, each one of which sounded from their descriptions like nothing more than a kaffeeklatsch.

Now, maybe the McCain camp do all of their real organizing on some super sekret site, but I'm skeptical.

McCain did have a bunch of Michigan offices open, though not as many as Obama from what I can remember.  His site also promised! new offices! opening soon! in Kalamazoo, Ann Arbor, and a few more places.  But John, baby, time's a wasting and at this pace, by the time you get those offices open, registration will be almost over.

Al,

I'm having one hell of a time finding it, and it's possible I'm wrong, but from what I've read about, the Virginia numbers overrepresent the African American turnout. I know for fact that in North and South Carolina the exit polls overstated African American turnout, and according to the Census Bureau, African Americans only make up about 19.6% of Virginia's population. I'm not saying that the African American vote in 2004 wasn't at 21% in 2004, but I'd caution that it's difficult for me to see African Americans being overrepresented at the voting booth.

I agree with pretty much everything else in your analysis Al, but I did want to put out a dissenting opinion on Virginia and SUSA.

Wouldn't it be poetic justice if Obama triumphed in Florida because Palin is such a crappy pick for the senior and Jewish vote (and Joe Biden is brilliant there).  Ha! I'd love to see it turn on Florida....

I was reading yesterday that Obama's people will have registered 300,000 new Dem voters in Virginia since Jan. by Oct. deadline. I seriously doubt that was reflected in the voter ID screen in SUSA's poll sample. SUSA has been notorious in this election year in under-representing the AA vote, both in turnout and in percentage voting for Obama. Only 84% for Obama, don't tell me that 16% of Virginia AAs are going to vote for McCain/Palin. That's ludicrous!

It makes me wonder whether that was McCain's thought all along -pick Lieberman, get the moderates and nail down Florida.  I really think that Obama would be in more trouble if McCain had picked Lieberman.

Bill R, Virginia doesn't register by party.

(Kind of OT) I have a lot of family and friends in very blue states, and I have been trying to think about how they can best work these next eight weeks, even if they can't travel.  Phone calls from out of state are OK for GOTV, but right now, it seems a more local touch is needed.

Then something struck me this weekend: OpEd/Letters to the Editor have a huge impact especially in small towns like Terre Haute.  On Saturday, I met a guy (old, white, destitute) who said he was against Obama because he had read an editorial claiming Obama was opposed to the Second Amendment. Ironically, I actually wrote a response that was published a week later calling out that NRA-promoted lie; he hadn't read my reply. When I corrected this guy and gave him evidence that Obama was indeed in support of the Second Amendment, he promptly said, "Thanks, I wanted to vote for Obama anyway. Now, I can." The lesson: the lies are pervasive AND they can be rebutted easily. Many, many folks WANT to vote for Obama, but some lie has their natural support constipated.

Thus, the plan I am promoting with friends and family all over: PRE-EMPTIVE letters to the editor. It might be possible for folks who cannot travel to canvass out of state, to "Adopt-A-Local-Paper-In-A-Swing-State"!  Obviously, it helps to have knowledge of the town, but writing the old "hometown" paper as a prodigal son or daughter certainly adds a sentimental angle that some will dig.  I know this gets mentioned every election... but this is the first time I've committed to becoming a nuisance in the local editorial boardroom.  Not only is it fun, it takes about as long as writing a couple of blog comments! It's all about releasing blockages and letting flow.

It is a funny state, given it's relatively small amount of land compared to it's Electoral votes. Think of it like a heart divided into 4 distinct quadrants.

The Northwestern section is anchored at the top by Toledo. That city has had a fairly big hit of recession over the years and it's surrounded by lots of rural farmland. Findlay, a Marathon Oil HQ, is the only city in the area currently growing.  Bowling Green State University is between Findlay and Toledo.

The Northeast is anchored by Cleveland, which despite it's industrial history is still thriving. Clevelanders are very diverse, blue collar, urban, suburban and wealthy. Youngstown is to the east and almost part of Pittsburgh. A very big Italian population is in Youngstown, which means lots of Catholics.

The Southwest is anchored by Cincinnati which is pretty cosmpolitan and the HQ of Proctor & Gamble. The city has traditionally been extremely conservative (you might remember the uproar over the Maplethorpe exhibit in this city many years ago.) Our former Governor, Bob Taft, was from here and he left office pretty disgraced. Cincinnati also includes Covington, KY and the northernmost tip of KY in it's "suburbs". To the northwest of Cincy is Dayton which is extremely conservative. Home of the Wright Brothers and NCR. Very catholic. Ironically Yellow Springs College (one of the MOST liberal educational institutions in the country) is located nearby.

The Southeast quadrant is mostly Appalachia and has the characteristics of West Virginia. Pretty rural and very poor -- except for Athens which is the home of Ohio University (and one of the best Journalism schools in the country) Our current Governor is from the area and could be a huge help here, as he was to Hillary Clinton.

Right in the middle is Columbus, which has a strong corporate base (HQ of Limited Brands, Wendy's International, Nationwide Insurance, and others) as well as home to The Ohio State University. VERY diverse population.

Columbus and Cleveland should be a slam dunk for Obama/Biden. Cincinnati, maybe. But Strickland could help a lot more than he is, especially in the southwest and the northeast. If for no other reason than he's a first term Gov. who isn't going to be very successful in getting jobs back to this state if McPalin is in the White House. 

There is an excellent ground game here, but I'm sure they'd love more help.

As shocking as it might seem, Cincinnati is actually an uphill climb for Obama.  The Democratic nominee for President has carried Hamilton County only four times in the past century, all in Democratic landslide years.  For Obama to have any hope here, he is really going to have to run up the score in all of the urban counties, and pull off an upset in Hamilton County.  Normally, for a Democrat to win in Ohio, (s)he must win by a substantial margin in northeast Ohio, and not get creamed in southeast Ohio.  With Obama, this presents a problem because southeast Ohio bears many similarities to Appalachia, his worst region in the country.  So instead of running close in southeast Ohio, he has to instead run close in heavily Republican southwest Ohio.  Ted Strickland has actually been surprisingly helpful for Obama (his base is southeast Ohio), but I don't know that it's going to be enough to carry the state.

Many wonder why Ohio leans Republican, with all of its cities.  The reason is that despite all the cities in northeast Ohio, that region of the state isn't really that much more populated than the rural regions (it is only twice as populated as southeast Ohio).  We have the second largest metropolitan area in the state (Cincinnati) actually on balance leaning heavily Republican.  And there are many relatively "large" small towns (Mansfield, Lima, Marietta, Sandusky, etc.) that actually go quite heavily Republican.

My Field Organizer told me at our meeting tonight that while McCain drew a huge crowd (12,000)at his event in Wisconsin (near Milwaukee) they did not have any volunteers or campaign staff working the crowd.  Now compare that to Obama's event - he had 14,000 people and the campaign walked away with 7,000 names.  McCain does not have our ground game and that is what will make the difference on 11/4 just as it did in the primary.

I have lived in Ohio for the majority of my life, I grew up in rural northwest Ohio and have lived in Dayton and Columbus.  From my conversations with people in each of these areas I really think there is a good chance of Obama winning Ohio.  My parents still live in rural NW Ohio and they would have voted Republican in the past, but they are solidly behind Obama, I know that is not the case for their entire community but the economy there is feeling the heat, I believe that with the right argument many of them could be convinced to vote for Obama.

As for Dayton and Columbus I think those areas should be solidy behind Obama.

The areas I would be concerned with are the S/SE parts of the state as they tend to be more conservative.  Cincinnati could be a tossup, it is normally a conservative strong hold but it does have a sizeable AA population, I would think if the voter registration drives are going well there it might be a wash.

I think we may lose some votes to racism, but with how close Ohio was to being blue in 2004 and with a Democratic Sectretary of State, I really think that new voter registration will balance out the possible racism factor.

Speaking of new voter registration, I would like to see (I've not seen any recent numbers) the new voter registration numbers for Ohio, that may tell us the story we need to know.

The Obama campaign just put out a video that makes the case for wanting to be on the ground in Mississippi that's a lot more powerful than anything I said in the previous post.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBH_7xcmFyY

You can get some of this sense of history and AA community in parts of Florida too.

I think it makes perfect sense to target the Hispanic voters with ads about Palin. They should probably do the same in Florida and do it now before inevitably Palin fatigue sets in - which I suspect is gonna happen within a week or so and the media need to find new drama to keep page views and ratings up.

I can't do much being a foreigner and down here in Panama, but I convinced two American friends here to invest their VOIP minutes and do volunteer calls. Hope it works out.

Al, Florida starts looking better and better to me. Battleground state, lots of different demographics, armies of lawyers, historical backdrop, difficult to predict anything, the usual undercurrent of fear and loathing and you might just stumble upon the stolen voter rolls amidst some hurricane rubble.

If you decide that you want to come to virginia, you should come to charlottesville, and stay with us a few days.  the people are organizing tremendously here, as we have several talented community organizers that put an office together here on their own well before the primary, before the first staffers showed up after south carolina.  we have three offices in town (and our town has less than 50,000 people). Charlottesville is a perfect amalgamation of the obama electorate; we have a large african american population, a huge elite public university and a quickly growing young progressive creative class. we voted 78% obama in the primary against hillary.  that's the plus side; you should base yourself here (and not northern virginia, richmond or tidewater) to see the challenge side, the electorate that we are battling for. we are right in the middle of those regions where obama has tremendous upside potential, but really needs to focus his messaging to reach these people. (i.e. traditionally conservative rural/small town voters who are fed up with Bush policies, but need a non-intellectual gut level appeal from the obama camp).These places include southside, the shenandoah valley, and the I-81 corridor. richmond and NoVa are also sufficiently nearby to analyze voter turnout machinery and the interesting shift in NoVa politics. It's not just a demographic shift that is allowing NoVa to trend blue. the big surprise is the disaffected career military (mid to upper level officers that work at the pentagon) who may give Obama a fair shake. all i can say is that we are really excited that we matter this time, and at least I, feel alternately confident or hesitant, that we can pull this thing out. also, charlottesville has great music. I'll take you around. 

ikl, the first thing that popped into my head was that IN is in better economic shape than MI or OH.  Please, anyone, correct me if I'm wrong.  Living in the country's second-poorest city, Buffalo, I was very interested in those infamous words Obama spoke at that fundraiser in San Francisco.  That, basically, when things are at their absolute crappiest is when voters are most suceptible to the culture wars' line of b.s.  Their real problems re: unemployment/foreclosure/cost of living/debt are all so HUGE and seem so insurmountable they "cling" to the small "issues" that the GOP deliberately lays out to trap them into voting against their own best interests.  Total pop voter psychiatry but maybe that's part of it.

And, Brendan, good idea re: the Letters to the Editor.  I did a TON of them during the primaries and the perspective I took was like that above.  I wrote as a resident of a Rust Belt city to fellow Rust Belt residents in PA, OH, IN.  Find a commonality with those in your intended audience.  The tool on barackobama.com is a little cumbersome but has every little paper there is.  FYI, my husband's in the paper business and highly recommends not doing bulk mailings to multiple papers.  Take the time to individually address each letter to the specific paper, just copy and paste body of letter in.

they have been very calming indeed.

Lucas (Toledo), Cuyahoga and Lorain (Cleveland and Lorain), and Columbus (Franklin) counties proper will go Obama without a problem.

Dayton (Montgomery) is more of a toss up. Cincinnati is more of a struggle, as mentioned upthread.

Where Governor Bobblehead needs to get off his butt and help out his party in his base of Southeastern Ohio (South and east of Canton). The same people that voted for him can be persueded to vote for Obama in at least a respectable margin through him and Joe Biden.

Southeastern Ohio, by the way, is where Obama was on days one and two of the RNC.

Hey Al, looks like you're not the only Chicken Little buster out there!

A Chicken Little sent a letter to Salon's Cary Tennis yesterday and was promptly inoculated by him.

 One of Obama's high dollar fundraisers called me yesterday, (about a fundraiser in LA on the 16th with Barbara Striesand singing, I can't go, if anyone is interested it is $2500) he is going to Florida for the entire month of October to talk to jewish people up & down the state, he believes FL will turn out for Obama because of the Palin pick.

I think Jessica has it right; although there's some good McCain support here, it tends to be low information voters who aren't volunteering, etc. Major blocks are energized for Obama.

Indiana is *not* doing as well economically as Ohio (that's my home state; went to college in Ohio), unless something has changed. What Indiana has going for it is: (IMHO) some hitherto ignored and unregistered large AA populations in Gary, Lake County, South Bend, etc. LOTS of Latinos as well. And a smaller Appalacian area. If you remember that line that people drew above I70, I think that Obama does well with Northern Indiana people, which share more with Michigan and Wisconsin and Illinois. Obama also has the Chicago media market. The biggest thing, though, is the fact that McCain has ignored it.

I agree with all of the Ohio analysis, and just want to add that that state never ceases to amaze me. He's going to need to run up big scores on his base demographics. I think an interesting question will be how all of the exburbs like Indian Hills vote. Although they may be polling McCain, there have to be some softs and undecideds. I think that his message could reach them and / or McCain could be painted as far less of a "maverick" than he is.

From the folks I've canvassed, this "maverick" thing has stuck in well among the low information folks.

I completely agree with Brendan on writing letters to the editor. In many towns, there aren't that many that come to the local paper and they are happy to print anything that is halfway well-written. Many take op-eds from local folks, too.

Personally, I think it's important to take the bloom off the rose when it comes to Palin and McCain's reformer claims. It turns out that in 19 months of being in office, Palin has charged the state of Alaska for per-diem costs 312 times for staying in her own house. One of the nights she charged for was Thanksgiving. If that's not corrupt, I don't know what is. And while this is not the big picture policy issue, it is the kind of thing a lot of people understand. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/08/AR200809...

In 2012, have the Dem Convention in Cincinnati.

I thought this was an interesting bit about the state of the race from Plouffe....the Obama camp invited the McCain press corps over to HQ while they were in town yesterday while McCain was at a fundraiser. This particular quote was what I like to hear from the man with all the numbers:

“When you look at the battleground states that will determine the presidency, we feel very good about where we are,” said Plouffe. “From a state by state perspective we’d much rather be us than John McCain.” 

Obama camp briefs McCain press corps - Politico.com 

Rumors are flying that he has been fired....becasue of his anti-McPalin posts.  Anybody know anything?

Ben Smith at Politico.com says that Ed Koch just endorsed Obama, after he had endorsed Bush 4 years ago.  Ben explains that this is good for the elder Jewish vote in Florida, with their New York connections.  Koch says Palin scares him.

Been indoors getting kids back in school and haven't made it out to the Field lately, but I see that the Wisconsin Hands are pretty optimistic about our state.  I'm worried.

It can't be that good, Al and Field Hands.  Internal polling must show it neck and neck.  I don't even need to ask the folks who are running the state for Obama.  

The state is getting visits from both campaigns.  We see new television ads for both campaigns every few days (and I'm in the Madison media market, home territory of our state government, the UW-Madison, Sen. Russ Feingold and Rep. Tammy Baldwin, out lesbian member of Congress).  Our family is getting our first local phone calls to volunteer for Obama since the primary (remember, we live in Madison).

Early summer polling in WI had Obama far enough out in front that I figured we'd never see him here or much ad spending.  I'm sorry that was wrong.  Time to get on the phones and out to the doors and to open the wallet again (see NYT story today).  If Obama-Biden can't carry Wisconsin, we are going to lose the election.

I was thinking about endorsements.  Someone on DK the other day I believe while in the midst of a CL moment, was longing for some big endorsements - similar to the way we saw them during the primaries.  What could even be left?  (This person was longing for C. Powell, which I find unlikely.)  It just doesn't seem like a standard for the GE.

Also, I had a question about these campaign events held on both sides.  I gathered from one of Brendan's posts the other day that Obama was seeking out undecideds to attend their events...is that right?  I've thought about it as I've watched...who are the people there?  Are they just preaching to the choir because that seems like a waste.  Do we know anything about who those folks are on both sides?  If you could convince local undecideds, they could go out and spread the word.

Aside from voter suppression, I'm liking our chances more and more in FL.  What are the biggest differences between PA and OH that makes McCain do better in OH?  I heard Rendell on a few different venures yesterday.  He seems to be hitting it hard.  Who knows about Strickland's activities??

Just want to add my thanks to Brendan Corcoran @9/8 11:03pm for his plan to write Letters to the Editor. This is such an important part of the local newspaper. One of the most read sections, and especially valuable for someone living out of state to write back to their hometowns. Don't expect the Obama Fellows have a second of their time to spare, but it's the STORY of why you are supporting Obama, as an OF can tell you, that's so important.

Most local papers are online now, so it's easy to get the masthead with names of Editors, email addresses.

For someone feeling even more ambitious, a "First Person Story", a Feature article about "Why I'm so involved in this Election" would probably get published - especially if you reference you're a 'hometown' person. You could include pictures of your GOTV activities, and a shout out to a local teacher who influenced you too. Anyone could write to a swing state local paper, even if you haven't got a hometown connection.

Thanks again Brendan for this comment. These individual stories really make a difference, and those of us used to reading major nationals, forget how closely local newspapers are read in their communities.

Heather - That Andrew Sullivan rumor is a classic example of how too many in the blogosphere jump on pieces of unsourced, unsubstantiated, unproven and undocumented "information," panic about them, only to have the turn out to be false.

Sully is taking a couple days off. That's all.

Really, don't folks get tired of jumping all over every little gossipy item that gets floated out there?

MI: The previous PPP poll in Michigan was taken at an Obama high, so I don't really get why their numbers were so low back then. But if they were right then, it means that at least Obama didn't drop all that much in Michigan due to the RNC/Palin bounce. Obama will have to work quite a lot to secure it but it's still an uphill battle for McCain.

OH: This one is kind of worrying. The previous Rasmussen, taken at an Obama low point, also had him pretty low. Does this mean Ohio is very vulnerable to the national dynamic and Obama will need to perform well nationwide to win this one? We'll need more polls to confirm.

VA: No serious drop in Virginia, the national dynamic doesn't seem to move it at all. Remains a true toss-up and incredibly dangerous to McCain.

PA: Still pretty low in Pennsylvania, seems like it's a bit vulnerable to the national dynamic. It's still gonna go blue, though.

CO: Movement towards Obama after the conventions, in perhaps the most crucial swing state of them all? If this poll is right, then Obama can slowly start thinking about those drapes.

FL: A state that had been trending towards Obama bumps up after the RNC/Palin. The biggest prize in the election is starting to look more and more like a true toss-up.

WA: Small drop, nothing strange after the RNC. A little too close for comfort maybe but McCain isn't contesting the state anyway.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7264ba9c-caa0-40cc-a46...

Obama spokesperson Tommy Vietor responds:

"On the same day that dozens of news organizations have exposed Governor Palin's phony Bridge to Nowhere claim as a 'naked lie,' she and John McCain continue to repeat the claim in their stump speeches. Maybe tomorrow she'll tell us she sold it on eBay."

amk

Thanks for the link to the article about how delegates voted.  I didn't know delegates could abstain from voting.  Are we to make anything of these people abstaining?  Do they do that because they don't like either candidate? 

This is my first election where I personally went through the delegate process, so I'm still having difficulty wrapping my head around the concept of people who went to all the effort and expense to get elected to the National Convention (not to mention the expense of attending) only to refrain from voting.  Does this mean these people, who were sent to represent people from their districts might actually vote for McCain?!

How do John McCain and Sarah Palin define "maverick"?

Someone who lies repeatedly in public.

Tien Le - There's a simple explanation for why some delegates (94 out of 4,400?) abstained from voting at the convention: cowardice. Typical party apparatchiks didn't want to disappoint either side. That's a fairly low number, by the way, probably mostly superdelegates or elected Clinton delegates that didn't know what to do. I wouldn't read much into it. Comes with the bric-a-brac that has to be swept from the Democratic Party.

Glad to hear Rendell is hitting it hard. He can get away with criticisms many other politicians can't -- and I thought his comments on Palin yesterday were wonderful. No one can accuse him of being "sexist" given his support of HRC.

As for Gov. Strickland, although Obama is in Ohio today, I haven't heard anything about the Governor appearing with him today. McPalin is also in the state today. I feel strongly those Northeast and Southwestern Ohioans NEED to see Strickland on the stump with Obama, bobbleheading as necessary. Vouching for someone goes a looooonnnnnggg way in Southern Ohio.

One bit of good news Strickland and Sherrod Brown did accomplish for Ohio, however, is they got a mandatory sick leave initiative removed from the November ballot. One less thing to get the conservatives and NFIB'ers riled up at the polls.

Info on Andrew Sullivan's whereabouts: http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/ (hint: taking time off)

I figured that was the case. He's furious about Palin and you could see it getting to him in his writing.

I went to Salon, following your link, and I dugg this story because I agree with Al that chicken littling is useless. Then I did my morning chores and as I did, something kept flappiing around in my head. One small comment on the Salon article, that tells everyone to just chill out and ends, "It's just politics."

This is not "just politics"; it's about who governs. And it is very scary that the American electorate might put in office a man who chose a VP who made rape victims pay for their own rape kit, at no small expense to the victim. This story is mentioned on the Princeton Election Consortium and appears in The Frontiersman, the Wasilla local paper which I quote:

"While the Alaska State Troopers and most municipal police agencies have covered the cost of exams, which cost between $300 to $1,200 apiece, the Wasilla police department does charge the victims of sexual assault for the tests."

So much for sitting in a hermit's hut on an isolated hill espousing platitudes that ignore facts about governments that cause rape victims additional real suffering.

Al, if you want to whack my comment, that's OK. Sometimes, however, it's really important to remind ourselves why we need to fight so hard to get Senator Obama elected.

It's official:  Palin just gave Florida to Obama.

Ed Koch stumped Florida for Bush in 2004.  You can bet your boots he'll be working on Obama's behalf in the Sunshine State.

This is why the RNC and the McCain folks had to wheel out Abe Foxman so fast -- they knew that picking Palin would cause McCain to start losing Jewish voters.

I concur with your assessment of the Latino vote in Virginia. While McCain has tried to maintain his former image as a moderate on immigration, Virginia Republicans have been really vicious in going after immigrants the past several years, and I think that will kill any chance for McCain to make inroads there.

...should be unique. Whenever my (large metro) paper thinks of printing my letter, someone calls to check that I wrote it only to them. There was a mini-scandal a few years back when "letter from a soldier in Iraq" turned out to be a cut-and-paste job appearing under different names in dozens of local papers. Referring to an actual story, e.g. "In the Sep 5 paper Mr. Rhubarb states that Mr. Obama would overturn the second amendment; this is not true..." will be best, too.

On Sully--as Al pointed out, the over the top rumor trading and Palin hysteria undercut real issues when they arise; the "pay for your own rape investigation" bit certainly seems to be legit. Not fiscal conservatism I can believe in, but it would play more clearly without all the various baby conspiracies muddying up the media space for the past week.

Glad Gov Ed is out there; I came to really like him in the primaries. I'm also glad the no 527 thing seems to have quietly been dropped--a negative frame of the opponent is part of getting elected. I just hope there are some people with a talent for appealing to independents, rather than MoveOn's Petraeus follies.

According to Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: M 49 ; 0 44. This seems a bit disappointing, especially considering this observation from Gallup:

"Gallup polling in recent days has been quite stable, showing McCain ahead of Obama by similar margins in each of the last four individual days of nightly tracking."

&  It's not just politics, when Roe v Wade will be overturned if McDraft & Animal Killer Palin get into office. Palin charges her state for staying home? Give me a break, thats not a reformer.

The last line also said something about not being a religious war, but the right wing has taken over the R party so it seems as it could become a religious war eventually, imo.

McPalin are having an event at Fairfax High School tomorrow morning. Political events are normally prohibited during school hours, but they got a waiver because the superindendent decided it would be "educational." Why it's more "educational" than any other political event, I don't know, but I understand it's hard to stand up to GOP pressure to break the rules for their benefit.

My take -- it's cheap (since they don't have as much money) and it's small (so they don't have to worry about being embarassed with a half-empty hall.) Fairfax Democrats plan to give them a warm welcome...

Micheline - How many times have I written here that "national tracking polls don't matter"?

If you find any national tracking poll number "disappointing" it's because you haven't been reading/listening well.

Big effing deal. Guess what? Presidents don't get decided by national popular vote (just ask Al Gore). They get decided by the results of 51 different elections all held on the same day in November. There is no way to extrapolate state by state numbers from a national tracking poll. I only let your comment through so as to swat it down. In the future, I may not.

Greetings everyone,

5 points:

1. I think the Ed Koch endorsement will play very well in Florida, I hope he spends the next couple months down there.

2. I'd love to see a Colin Powell endorsement based on National Security, or a Ross Perot endorsement based on understanding of the economy.

3. I am beginning to think another week or so of Palin in the headlines is a good thing, to know her is to love her (if you're a Democrat)

4. I wrote a diary over at daily kos about appealing to fiscal conservatives, but it got lost, if you have any interest, the link is here:

"Go to there base & kill there doodz with pole"

cut and paste:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/9/13332/24667

5. I can't figure out how to join "The Field". I've donated, gone through the login process, but never received a confirmation email, my email address is kenbareilles at yahoo dot com

I think my joining is frozen in cyberspace purgatory.

Ken in California

Ken - Our tech team will be in contact with you today to fix that. If you don't hear from them today, send me an email at narconews@gmail.com. Thanks for your patience.

Al I just wanted to personally thank you for clearing the air at Daily Kos yesterday. It was greatly needed and much appreciated by all of us who have been busting our butts trying to maintain sanity over there. I have never really been concerned about the Obama campaign itself, and certainly not about him as a leader. My biggest concern has been the historical cowardice of Democrats in general. We always complain about what's wrong with this country but when we finally get someone with the right ideas and the right temperament we would rather fight against him than for him. I'm just glad there are blogs like yours that continue to put forth constructive ideas about how to win this thing instead of allowing the site to become just another cowardly echo chamber for second guessers and naysayers. Thanks again.

It's great to see the Democratic vetting of Sarah P  (all over the internets and in some of the MSM) since John McCain decided he wasn't up to it.

From Bush/Cheney To McCain/Palin - A BRIDGE TO NOWHERE that Americans Cannot Afford

Hey, Al, I just thought of that name for your upcoming "Excellent Adventure" back to "The States"!!  Guess it's the teacher in me...

Hubby has already started "interviewing" his musician friends re: you coming to Michigan...hubby's assignment was: politically left (one of hubby's bass players actually thinks he's a Republican!), lots of fun, loves to drink, crazy as hell but with head on straight (except when drinking), smoking is OK (at least on the porch), and highspeed wireless a plus! Their interview assignment includes a link to your Wikipedia and The Field!

Will keep you updated!!

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 Thank you for posting that link to your diary. I can use that! I rec'd it! Hope others here will do the same.

There's a new video up of Obama yesterday in Farmington Hills, MI where a woman confronted him about constitutional rights, and Obama ended up responding directly to Rudy's Palin's line about how Obama is more concerned with reading terrorists their rights than protecting Americans. It'd be nice to see a 2-4 minute "newsreel" format that takes on these topics (like Al talked about recently) because these are important and distinctive issues, but not anything that's easily and convincingly summed up in a 30-second ad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqE3j10keLc

How to edit one's comments and leave the comments in the same place in the comments order? That is, I just tried to edit one word on my comment and it moved whole comment to end of posted comments. ? My apologies but I'd like to get it right. Thanks.

I know Al & others are correct about this - national tracking polls have no value.  That truth doesn't help me avoid them.  Seriously, I know for myself I have to really use a kind of 'self talk' when i'm reading national papers, or even watching the news I do watch on TV/Lehrer News Hour.  I have to tell myself, these polls mean nothing.  Not as hard as being on a diet & avoiding chocolate, but right up there!

I hope we all will take the MSM on - teach ourselves to avoid this junk!  This is not a game, as Elizabeth Duvert, Christi, and others have so eloquently written - this is not 'just politics.'  This is our lives.  This is a critical time in the world.  We can't allow ourselves to be distracted from the work to be done.  I'm grateful for Pam's comments - always coming back to the importance of doing the work we need to do to elect Obama.

Al, I hope you do a Field Trip to Detroit - sounds like the place you'd have the most fun! Thanks again for helping us to give up polls!

And, speaking of fun - where's Katie?????

 I only need $40 to reach my goal of raising $3300. for the O' campaign. I am leaving soon and won't have any time to raise more money, so if any fieldhand feels like donating today please do so at my page. I will be very grateful!

I consider myself in the "We need to attack Palin" group, mainly because her fake "reformer" persona is what is allowing McCain to give the illusion of running against the GOP, so the last two nights -- after it was past reasonable hours to do any phonebanking or the like -- my girlfriend and I put together the below linking Palin to Bush (inspired by some of the media that was floating around this past weekend at HuffPo, etc):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rO93vmhSaKg

May not be the fanciest thing ever, but it beats Chicken Littling!

Byran.  WOW!  everybody please watch and share his video.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rO93vmhSaKg

Thinking about those damn polls - for me, it's the always difficult 'not knowing' when something is very important to me.  In this case, this election, important enough to get a certain citizen journalist to vote for the first time in 12 years, and all of us to really, really care, this time.  Some of us have voted these past 12 years, but I don't think anyone voted with the passion we feel this time.  I'ts the not knowing, and stretching to almost anything, even those blasted polls for a sense of information, tho' we know it doesn't mean anything!! I can hear several Field Hands reminding me that's just another version of CL - you're all right.  I'm going to watch Bryan's video again - and share it with friends.

I think I would have been more panicky after reading this article about new polling numbers in WA: http://www.king5.com/news/specials/politics/stories/NW_090808POB_presidential_poll_SW.5803cb3b.html

had I not been reading here about similar results in other states.  I don't usually pay attention to polls, but I was directed to this article by our Field Organizer, who is saying the campaign office is all worried now.  Frankly, I think they needed something to shake them out of their post-convention blahs.  If they were craving an adrenaline rush, this article filled the bill. 

My take on it is that it's sort of a Palin blush of enthusiasm.  Like it was said before, people who were lukewarm about McCain are now more willing to answer polling questions than before. 

Our Governor is in real jeopardy here, there's no denying that. She only won the top-two primary by 2 percentage points.  Not exactly a mandate.  Even still, I'm going to go with my gut here and say that McCain can't sustain the gains from the Palin/Convention rush.  At least not in WA.

Very good work, Bryan! Thanks!

Bryan:  Nice vid from you two!

National polls are all part of the BigMoney plan to control the national dialogue.  They simply reflect the dominant "news story" that Conglomerate-owned outlets decide to push each week.  Then, those same BigMedia outlets can point to the polls saying, "See, polls show this is what the public cares about!" and things like that.  The national daily polls serve to give legitimacy to often fabricated storylines pushed by BigMedia.

We often go around saying, "Why do people keep voting against their own self interests?!?  Can't they see what they're doing?"  This vicious narrative cycle of BigMedia, which is owned by BigMoney, has been in place for decades now.  Entire generations have grown up within this dynamic, and it was all designed specifically to have people vote against their own self interests.  They succeeded with this plan quite some time ago, but thankfully we're beginning to chip away at their facade.

Actually, I think we're in much better shape than we were with Kerry in '04, and even with Gore in '00 in terms of influencing the public discourse, and those two nearly one those Selections (I know, they did win...this narrative cycle has also kept this under wraps).  Couple that with a ground game that blows any other away in history, and things are looking quite good for us.

Imagine having Obama/Biden vs. McInsane/Flailin without all this New Media available to us.  All these lies we're calling out would simply be repeated 20 times more than they are now and with no pushback whatsoever.  Scary thought.  The Internet developed to its current level just in time.  It would've been too late I think.

Viva El Campo!

(hope I got that right...)

The Chicken Littling on other blogs has been ridiculous.  Some of my regular blogs have been unreadable because of it.  Sometimes I can't tell if they're Democrats or Republicans.

 McLame's campaign has moved the venue away from Fairfax High tomorrow, there were loud complaints.

A Big Thank You is in order. Someone donated the last $40. I have reached my goal! Whoever you are (Sandy) Thank You!

Mayor Koch -- "If its yellow, let it mellow, if it's brown, flush it down" God, I loved him in a crisis -- talks to all the retired New York Jews in Florida like family. He's one of them. He's funny. He's adroit. He knows the buttons to push. He was their mayor. I'd give my eyeteeth to be a fly on the meeting wall when he delivers those lines where he shrugs his shoulders, opens his lifted palms, turns his head, and delivers the zingah.

Foxman's a humorless policy wonk who polices his manufactured terrain to keep himself relevant...and in a job.

Koch is your favorite Uncle Miltie.

I see Al answered your question as I certainly read the delegates abstaining the same way as you did.  Good grief - these must be the very same people who rush to get in front of me at McDonalds and then can't decide what the hell they want when they get to the cashier.  

That is, if Obama succeeds in explaining it all. As I understand it, Freddie and Fannie had to be bailed out because nobody believed Bush' promise that they would be backed. He had to actually DO it to convince foreign capital - that's how much he's trusted and America's standing in the world. Now Lehman is down 50% and no doubt the govt will have to step in like with Bear Stearns. Dollar down. They'll have to borrow at outrageous rates from the Chinese, print more treasury bills. It looks really bad. While the media discuss moose hunting, Bush is running the US off the cliff with his stupid policies and McCain will finish the job if Bush hasn't already done that come January.

THE most important fact of the Rasmussen poll, it is a FOX/Rasmmussen poll.

New place to post

The Middle Class PAC forum 

www.tmcpac.com/forum

1.  Al, or others, can anyone remember if a British Prime Minister has endorsed or lead with a OpEd seeming to endorse a POTUS during a campaign before? Gordon Brown has apparently, kind of, endorsed Obama?, is this a good omen?

2. Obama went there today. Gist-Lipstick on a Pig is still a pig. Please comment as to how you think this plays out.

I would have much rather see him just call them out as liars/lying then to use a pig metaphor, but that is just me.

Christi -

As for your second question, I think Marc Ambinder smacks down McCain's argument:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/obama_did_not_call_...

Anyone have a link to them?  I'm having trouble finding them.

Thx.

 Unbelievable, the way this is spinning on the right, right now(top headline on Drudge) Thanks, great answer.

I would argue that calling them liars, and the point of Obama's metaphor, are two different things -- and are being handled as such.

He was using the pig metaphor, obviously, to help puncture the ludicrous notion that somehow, a member of the GOP establishment and a corrupt, earmark-dependent governor are "change" and/or reform. You can put a new label on GOP policies, but they're still GOP policies.

Obama and his campaign calling McCain and Palin straight up liars, however, is a different matter, and something they seem to have been slow-playing in order to get the media's assistance with it. It seems to have been working -- the TM seems to be coming around -- and it's because of this very dynamic that I think McCain may have overreached with his despicable Sex Ed ad tonight.

Also, I just wanted to say thank you for the kind words on the Palin=Bush ad that I posted upthread -- you guys rock!!!

 Pork Barrell, Pig, Duh!

Bryan, your video was really good, hope you & others can spread it around.

I think he set a trap for John McCain and the GOP that they walked right into - after the "lipstick on a pig" comment, they immediately tried to say that Obama was acting sexist towards Sarah Palin. Drudge used his usual bullshit methods of distortion. A spokesperson feigned outraged.

And then Obama, who baited McCain into making a swing for his jaw, stepped to the left and delivered a giant haymaker straight to McCain's face. He didn't apologize; he didn't back down. The response? "We we're talking about John McCain."

As my middle-school-aged brother would say, "Burn!" Brilliantly played by the O Team.

Obama win prefrerred in world poll.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/americas/7606100.stm

amk

Read here.

If only, our nation got news the way europe does. In Europe you get all the world news spread thruout the broadcasts, here you get what they want you to see. Most (I hope I am wrong) US citizens see what they get on network or local news, the very biggest of world stories gets a 30 second spot if that. It is just not the same news here, for some reason, and maybe someone else here can answer it better than I, we are insulated, we get what is happening in the US and the border countries, just my humble opinion, after traveling around the continents.

Just got back from an Obama meeting, and the people up top deemed it mandatory we all watch the Palin/community organizing clip together and discuss it.

It's an absolutely excellent motivator and I'm glad to see the campaign is using the clip in such a way.

Almost 4,500 people registered since move-in day on campus, and we're still getting 30-50 (or more on special occasions) registered per day.

I know this probably won't mean anything to those of you who aren't in my part of the country (TN), but bluegrass god Ralph Stanley endorsed Barack Obama today!!

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2008/09/post_89.html?nav=rss_blog

Sorry, I had to share, you may now go back to your regularly scheduled conversations.....

ummm, they report world news. The american media I have seen so far has wrapped itself mainly US centric, narcissistic, trivia news. Especially on cnn, the same stupid news people have the same stupid pundits, asking the same stupid questions and being given the same stupid analysis and arriving at the same stupid conclusions, over and over again. It is sickening to watch.

If you get a chance, watch stephen suckur at BBC do an interview. No histrionics and his follow-up questions are sharp and penetrative. And he stays calm and respectful through out it all. I would have put Charlie Rose in that category but he blew it in his last Obama-Biden interview with stupid, irrelevant gotcha questions.

amk

I'm on an email list where I receive news of events happening in Northern Virginia, and I received a list of 50, yes fifty, registration and canvassing events happening in Northern Virginia alone over the next five days.

KD

h/t kos comments section

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjwVEeq7JiQ

KD

I have made several small contributions to the Obama campaign, but now I am considering making a big one.  I have been wondering just how much I would be willing to pay to turn back time and have Gore officially win the election in 2000.  I think of the difference it would have made to the lives of the our military and the Iraqi people, to the environment, and to our relations with the rest of the world.  It would certainly be worth $2000.  I think I'll send that $2000 to Obama.

 For $2000 or a little more, you can actually go to a great fundraising event. What state do you live in? Barbara Streisand is performing for BO(who will be in attendance) in LA on the 16th. Biden is doing fundraisers for $1000. If you want to donate big without going to a cool event then hooray for you, but if you are looking for something to reason that large of a donation for, I can probably help you find it. You might even get fired up to volunteer.

One answer to are you supporting the O man?

"At this point that depends on whether Paris Hilton is going to run."

Hi Al,

I was wondering if this subject is of interest to you.  There is a recommended diary on Daily Kos right now that I find fascinating -- the discussion going beyond the fact that the recent NC poll has some crazy Party ID shifts represented in the poll to the idea of the Republican corporatists keeping the polls close so that a stolen election is less obvious.  I find the commenters not be CL in any way.  The comments are great and it all just doesn't make sense to me as it defies common sense that Old Man McCain has this much support.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/9/18192/04144/290/592615

Many people (on both sides) would be more apt to believe a landslide for Obama than a close election.  Given that most of the educated population in the U.S. believes next to nothing the MSM shovels to us, why would we believe the polling? 

And speaking of polls, here's one out tonight that shows Obama up by 5 (45 Obama  to 40 McCain).   Seriously, I would think McCain's top number would be 40 (and 35 of that number is a sympathy vote for him or racism vote against Obama). 

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_obama_45_mccain_40_ibdtipp9.php

Al wrote:

More than half of those are Independent white voters that were unmoved by the conventions. That's the battleground in Virginia and where virtually all "messaging" and advertising ought to be pitched.

So, well, if the road trip will lead you to Virginia, this, I hope, is one person you'll talk to:

Catfish, he tells me, warming to his assignment, are a lot like white rural voters: "They gotta feed on the bottom--cause all they get is scraps. But if you're their pal, and you feed 'em what they want--and you gotta feed 'em, you can't goddamn pull it away, you gotta let 'em eat it. .  .  . If you present enough food out there, you're gonna get 'em in a frenzy, just like those catfish in the pond. And when you hook 'em? They'll take you on a ride."

I read that diary at DKos, Catherine.  Actually I had read the HuffPo article and I am still shaky on this.  How can party ID have shifted that much so fast?

Can someone tell me if this is what the pollsters are doing?  They call let's say 1000 people randomly within their model.  If on that night it's 33-33-33 R-D-I party ID, then that's what they report.  They just give the total numbers and provide the self-reported breakdown.  If on the next night, people self ID as 40-35-25, then that's what get's reported and those results are used.  In other words, they aren't adjusting for the party ID results they expect...they are just reporting what they find.  Is that right??

If that's right, then what this guy said is true:

I am a HUGE Nate Silver fan, but this post today from him (or Sean) doesn't do it for me.  I'm not buying the Shy Tory factor about disaffected Republicans.  Please.  I am much more apt to believe that the corporate polls are purposely intending to keep the race tight and that includes the state polls with BS Party ID numbers in them. 

It's very easy to get a higher number of Dem party ID just on the basis of a)more of us and b)more enthusiastic about Obama than McCain's base is about him (with Palin).  So why would they not show up in greater numbers?? Just because it's a state poll doesn't mean it's any more accurate than the national polls.  On the next thread Al has a good tease about GOP internal polling not looking so great.  IMO, if it's not a stolen election with registrations "lost" and machines missing votes, Obama will do great come Nov.

One of the trends over the last few years is of Republicans becoming disaffected and showing up in the "independent" column, which explains why until recently there has been a party ID gap between Rs and Ds.  Now that the base got what they want, some of these former Republicans (that were calling themselves independents for a little while) are be returning home to the base.

On the other side, there was never a large number of Democrats fleeing into independent-land, so there's no room for upside in the Dem party ID numbers.  It makes sense that after both conventions the GOP party ID number would go up while Dems stay the same.

That's an interesting question. Since at least 2006, opinion polls have shown independents coming to have similar views to Democrats on Bush, Iraq, the economy, and other issues. Would people who stopped being Republicans because they hate Bush suddenly come back because of Palin? The big shift in the last two years is that many people who were previously independents have become Democrats (and there is no reason why more would not continue to do so), and people who were previously Republicans have become independents. Again, this is because of Bush - why do you think that Obama's key message is McCain=Bush? It's not just to appeal to Democrats!

In looking at a number of polls prior to the Democratic convention, I saw that the trend was that McCain had consolidated the Republican base (in some polls he had as much as 90%) but had lost independents, while Obama was having trouble with some Clinton Democrats but had gained independents in their place. It seems that the independents were turned off by McCain's Rove-style politics. This is consistent with the profile of many independents as being anti-Bush conservatives.

I argued ahead of the convention that Obama was in a good place because it is easier to win back members of his own party who have already supported him (during the unity bounce) than it is for McCain to win over independents that he drove away. The convention did an excellent job of winning back Clinton Democrats while holding on to independents, and that's why Obama was polling so well right after the convention.

McCain's convention was pretty much all right-wing except for his own speech, and Palin is above all a pick that appeals to the Republican base. The key question is whether she appeals to independents. My sense is that she does not and that as the convention bounce fades, this will become clear. The relatively small size of McCain's bounce supports this idea (as Jed has been pointing out, the bounce is no more than what Nate projected not knowing anything about Palin; it is simply a convention bounce and not necessarily a Palin bounce).

Even with a more energized Republican base, if Obama can hold his position among Democrats and independents, he will win. I am not convinced that there was a huge body of "shy Republicans" that suddenly activated for McCain because of Palin. If they were, I don't think they were independents. But we will see.

see Sarah Palin pictures

See how the swing states (and the other states) progess in the poles here:

http://www.youcalc.com/apps/1218019592041

... and its easy to put on your blog or your site!

Make a difference, keep on voting!