One Year Ago Tonight: A Teaching Moment in Overcoming Adversity
By Al Giordano
A year ago yesterday, noting the fast post-Iowa collapse of what had been Senator Clinton's commanding lead in national polls until then, I posted that image, above, to The Field.
For a year prior, Clinton had led Obama and the others in all national polls by 15 to 20 points more or less. But then on January 3, Obama won the Iowa caucuses, and many who thought his candidacy a lark full of hopey illusion began to see it as hard nosed and viable. The national numbers snapshot on January 7 suddenly told a new narrative:
Clinton 33 percent (-8 since Iowa)
Obama 29 (+5)
Edwards 20 (+3)
Clinton's third place showing in Iowa had blown the gasket on the "inevitable nominee" argument being pushed (most loudly by her top strategist Mark Penn) and her public image had become an icy caricature frozen by her own handlers' insistence on packaging her as the candidate of "experience" and toughness.
Then on the afternoon of January 7, Clinton's back against the wall and with rampant speculation that New Hampshire would knock her right out of the presidential race, came her breakthrough: an emotive moment when, fighting back tears, the human side of Hillary Clinton emerged in time for the evening news on primary eve and dominated the news cycle as New Hampshire went to the polls.
That afternoon, I wrote that, "I found her teary-eyed moment today humanizing," but so many others were jumping all over her for it. And yet the harder they jumped and gloated over it, the more nasty their response, the more sympathy and empathy it generated for Clinton.
(The only other story to break through in that cycle was that of an angry mob of Ron Paul supporters chasing Sean Hannity of Fox News through the snowy streets of Manchester, which was gratifying to watch.)
At midnight, the northern New Hampshire towns of Dixville Notch and Hart's Location voted and more interesting than Obama's victory in both towns - and a harbinger of a November yet to arrive - was that for the first time ever in Dixville Notch, more locals took Democratic ballots than Republican ones.
Almost every pundit, reading the polling trends, thought that Obama would win New Hampshire a year ago today. The shift in the national polls was reflected locally.
The final Pollster.com average prior to the vote had Obama with 36.7 percent, Clinton with 30 and Edwards with 18.4. And Obama did in the end receive about that - 37 percent, and Edwards got 17. But the story of the night was that Clinton sopped up virtually all the undecided vote, topped the others with 39 percent, and was suddenly back in the game, big time, after her Iowa stumble.
Clinton's victory speech came first that night:
She said:
I come tonight with a very, very full heart.
And I want especially to thank New Hampshire. Over the last week, I listened to you and, in the process, I found my own voice...
Clinton the human was suddenly a new character on the national political stage. Times had changed since Senator Edmund Muskie's 1972 tears (some say it was just melted snow on his face) in New Hampshire wrecked his presidential ambitions. And the New Hampshire electorate served up the lesson that things can happen in the final 24 hours of a campaign to change the outcome.
The pressure was now on Obama. How could he possibly retake the initiative after the New Hampshire primary shocker? That same January 8 night, he took the stage in Nashua:
And with three words - "yes, we can," introduced for the first time as a call and response line in his speeches - Obama parlayed his defeat into a victory. In temperament, with confidence and calm - and with the assist of a raucous crowd that was determined not to let the setback get it down - he kept himself in the game.
I surmise that one of the factors at play, watching these two speeches a year later, is that Obama's staff did not have a concession speech written and Clinton's did not have a victory speech authored, that both camps were genuinely caught flat-footed by New Hampshire's voters. So each added some words to tailor the speeches to the moment, but Obama's speech came off sounding the most victorious and forward looking. (And there's an ironic history in that: In 1992, in New Hampshire, it was Bill Clinton who parlayed his second place finish, a loss to Paul Tsongas, into a perceived victory with the entrance of the term "comeback kid" into the American political lexicon. Obama had taken a page from Bubba and made it his this night.):
I want to congratulate Senator Clinton on a hard-fought victory here in New Hampshire.
A few weeks ago, no one imagined that we'd have accomplished what we did here tonight. For most of this campaign, we were far behind, and we always knew our climb would be steep. But in record numbers, you came out and spoke up for change. And with your voices and your votes, you made it clear that at this moment - in this election - there is something happening in America...
We have been told we cannot do this by a chorus of cynics who will only grow louder and more dissonant in the weeks to come.
We've been asked to pause for a reality check. We've been warned against offering the people of this nation false hope.
But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope. For when we have faced down impossible odds; when we've been told that we're not ready, or that we shouldn't try, or that we can't, generations of Americans have responded with a simple creed that sums up the spirit of a people.
Yes we can.
It was a creed written into the founding documents that declared the destiny of a nation.
Yes we can.
It was whispered by slaves and abolitionists as they blazed a trail toward freedom through the darkest of nights.
Yes we can.
It was sung by immigrants as they struck out from distant shores and pioneers who pushed westward against an unforgiving wilderness.
Yes we can.
It was the call of workers who organized; women who reached for the ballot; a President who chose the moon as our new frontier; and a King who took us to the mountaintop and pointed the way to the Promised Land.
Yes we can to justice and equality. Yes we can to opportunity and prosperity. Yes we can heal this nation. Yes we can repair this world. Yes we can.
And so tomorrow, as we take this campaign South and West; as we learn that the struggles of the textile worker in Spartanburg are not so different than the plight of the dishwasher in Las Vegas; that the hopes of the little girl who goes to a crumbling school in Dillon are the same as the dreams of the boy who learns on the streets of LA; we will remember that there is something happening in America; that we are not as divided as our politics suggests; that we are one people; we are one nation; and together, we will begin the next great chapter in America's story with three words that will ring from coast to coast; from sea to shining sea - Yes. We. Can.
The moment was not merely feel-good, but had tangible results that would shape the rest of the campaign due to the money it raised online from small donations by his grassroots supporters. When the January 2008 fundraising reports came in later, the NY Times reported:
After Mr. Obama's victory in Iowa, the campaign collected $2.8 million online. But it was the two days after Mr. Obama's stunning loss to Mrs. Clinton in New Hampshire that campaign officials point to as when they began to realize they were in for an extraordinary month.
On the evening of the primary, Mr. Obama's finance staff settled in to watch the results from their cubicles. When the television networks called the race for Mrs. Clinton, their spirits sagged. But Ms. Burdick was staring at her laptop, watching a graph showing how much money was coming into the Obama campaign over the Internet. Within minutes, it was shooting upward.
"This is crazy," Ms. Burdick said, calling over to two of her colleagues sitting near her.
Within three hours, the campaign had cleared $500,000. In the morning, when Ms. Burdick checked again, the campaign had raised $750,000. Over the course of two days, Mr. Obama collected $4.4 million online.
Obama's January fundraising take added up to a whopping $36 million, compared to Clinton's $13.5 million.
And it was the defeat in New Hampshire - the candidate, under intense public spotlight during an obvious setback - that paradoxically caused his grassroots base to rally financially behind him on a scale never seen before in American politics.
That moment was the beginning of an important lesson for the US left and its Chicken Little tendencies to think that any adversity or setback or stumble means the sky is going to fall and all will be terrible and ruined always and forever. The "Chicken Little" tendencies and the rising counter-meme dominated much of the spring and summer and even fall among Obama supporters. (And there is still, evidently, some difficulty in some corners accepting the reality of winning, a difficulty that manifests in the droop-eyed insistences that nothing can or will ever change, or that Obama has "sold us out" before he is even inaugurated: really, this is something for the psychologists to study.)
But for me, it was that night, a year ago today, that provided the lesson - never let a setback wreck our spirits, and never presume it's as bad as your opponents tell you it is - and gave the opening for a "teaching moment" about the contagion that is panic and the antidote that is hope.
There will be continued "teaching moments" to come, starting less than two weeks from today, when "yes we can" becomes, also, "yes, we did."
Update: How could I forget? That NH speech was later sampled quite virally...
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Very inspiration essay
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by Beth in VA (not verified)It's true--sometimes a loss is the start of the big win.
Crossposted to DKos
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by Al GiordanoHere.
I remember that night
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by Ann CantelowI remember making a donation that night. I was a big fan of Obama's and my sentiment on his loss that night was, "No!! This can't happen!!"
I remember worrying about the "Yes We Can" slogan, actually. I thought it sounded too much about the toddler's story, "The Little Engine That Could." I thought it was too simple and kind of hokey. Glad I was wrong. I hadn't paid much attention to politics before Obama, and didn't know the history of "Si Se Puede."
Whew, I'm still trying to recover financially from all the donations I gave last year to Obama-though I don't regret giving, and would do it again. I could sure use some of that now to pay my quarterly taxes. I get lots of solicitations for political donations now, and I only shake my head and sigh, for now.
It's Official!
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by John Quentin HeywoodThe Senate and House in Joint Session just tallied the electoral vote, and Barack Obama is President-Elect of the United States of America!
Better a trickster than a martyr be
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by LIsa in Oregon (not verified)Off-thread, I know, but this seems like good news to spread; a trickster move worthy of Alinsky. Rights to public lands in Utah were being auctioned off in a last-minute move by BushCo. A student went to an auction of public lands with the intention of disrupting the auction; he ended up winning a bidding war. His action hopefully has postponed the sale of about 22,000 acres.
Now he needs some support.
Read:
<http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2009/1/5/182430/4612>
Donate:
<http://www.bidder70.org/>
Thanks for the look back
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by Cathyish (not verified)When thinking back over the last year, the Obama occurance (happening? phenomenon? event?) has been such a disconcerting blend of the improbable with the inevitable that it still doesn't seem as though it actually occured. It's such a strong, confident, living and breathing movement now, that it's breathtaking to look back and realize how fragile it actually was in the beginning.
will.i.am video
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by Nancie (not verified)Another inspirational essay, Al.
the will.i.am "yes we can" video was so significant for me. I remember the rally I attended in Pittsburgh during the primary campaign. that video was played on the screens just before things got rolling, and I swear over 10,000 people recited it right along...I know I have it memorized.
The current insistence...
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by Norm W. (not verified)by some that the "sell-out" by Obama has started before he's even president continues to disappoint me -- thanks for pointing that out, Al. I am not that surprised that it continues though, and maybe we don't need a trained psychologist to understand it. People have been trained by two generations of presidents and congresses to expect less of their government, both materially and practically. It's the final outcome of the "you're on your own" society, as Obama himself put it.
I can't remember who wrote the comment here not too long ago, but they nailed it: Obama is not all that hard to figure out, once you know what to look for. He sets out his ideas /goals and states them clearly, as he did during the campaign. Then, while he may change his tactics, he sticks with those ideas, and tells you them again. Then Obama implements those ideas. He told us where he wants to go and how he will get there during the campaign, and despite the cries I hear from one day to another by many in the blogs, I don't see one difference between his goals then and how they are being manifested in policy now.
Obama represents us with clarity, consistency, and execution.
Yes we can.
Doomed to Repeat..
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by Charisse Lane (not verified)I think it's extremely important that we never forget how we arrived at this place. In addition, I applaud PE Obama for continually reminding the American public that we're facing such distressing times because of the failed policies of the past. We have a VERY short attention span in this country. Pretty soon, they'll think it was the Obama administration that deregulated the financial sectors.
I donated to The Fund for Authentic Journalism today because I am so inspired by "The Field". I am looking forward to reading your posts throughout 2009.
Take care
That night in New Hampshire..
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by Mark T (not verified)....was the first time in my life that I ever made a political contribution. A few months later and I'm running a GOTV Staging Location, and having lunch with Al ;-)
What really hit me that evening was, 1) He really could win, and 2) it just wasn't going to happen magically, I had to get off the sidelines. So we did, and never looked back. What a ride....
very nice
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by siddhartha (not verified)beautiful post, Al
I was waiting for a flight in SLC airport
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by Palgirl2008 (not verified)when the results were coming, and I remember feeling the great disappointment.
after I arrived at my distination, I turn on my TV, and saw the speech, and I cried, and my hope was renewed, and I was recharged to volunteer which I did that night.
what a speech...
good one
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by edwina (not verified)This is a wise post, Al. I think there is an addiction to controversy and drama not only in the MSM but also in the liberal blogs. That's why I return to your site because you do not drink from that pool.
Great Post Al
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by Sandy (not verified)Have not visited here for a while. Thanks for posting that full Obama speech--it has resonated in my mind via the will.i.am video for a long time, but the unadorned words themselves are incredibly powerful.
Are you going to DC for the 20th? Will you be stopping by the Netroots Nation party?
That night, of the New Hampshire Primary,
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by Janey (not verified)was really difficult for me. I had been focused on nothing but that primary for days.
But, I was one of the $500K donator people that night. I have no extra money at all but I took out a credit card and sent something to the campaign. I just knew I could not only afford for Hilary to win the nomination, but also had to feel like I was doing anything, anything for Obama's win*. Donating that night felt good because it was the proverbial "where the rubber hits the road" sort of feeling. It was quite emotional.
*I say this as I was 90% sure the Democratic nominee would be President because the economics dictated it; even at that time the recession had started. It is always (short of an attack inside our boundaries) the economics. If the economy had been on an upswing (it wasn't, even then), the Republican chance of keeping the White House would have been almost insurmountable.
Thanks Al, this was terrific.
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by rikyrah (not verified)I thought the tears were calculated and phony as hell, and it didn't surprise me when she ' won' (nobody will convince me that Obama didn't win. The discrepancy between paper ballots, and the electronic machines will forever make me suspicious.).
I was so upset I never even watched my tv coverage. I erased it from the tivo. I'm sorry now that I did, because I don't have his speech on tape.
When Will.I.Am's song hit, it was like, Wow, this is really happening. Something IS stirring.
My ever cynical mother told me to buck up.
Born in Jim Crow Mississippi, she put it to me like this:
In the spanse of 5 days, in all-White Iowa, he won - in a Caucus. People had to stand up and declare themselves to support a Black man. In all-White New Hampshire - in the PRIVACY of a VOTING BOOTH - he came within 3 points of the former President's wife. Child, don't you know...the sign has been sent - He can WIN.
Mama was right.
Thanks for Memories
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by Christi DemuthWhat a year it has been. That was the speech that made me step up and get involved. Very soon after that I found "The Field", thank goodness for that. I have so much hope along with some fear but am so thankful we won. I can not imagine McCain taking on this economic crisis. Happy 2009!
here's Ani Difranco's take...
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by Joel WiensOn the coming inauguration...
http://www.righteousbabe.com/ani/nov4/
There have been few sharper critics of the American political establishment. Ani is a great example of the opposite of the beautiful loser syndrome and (I think) represents some of the best of pop activism in the US.
Having listened to Ani for years, it is shocking to hear her praising an elected official without a hint of restraint.
@ Joel
Submitted on January 8th, 2009 by siddhartha (not verified)Thank you for putting that video up. I've been an Ani fan for a long time!
Spot on
Submitted on January 9th, 2009 by Tara Van NimanIndeed I was one of those contributors. That speech was so significant to me. And I think you may be on to something regarding the victory turned defeat speech. There was something very powerful about hearing those words in defeat. There were times during the long primary I commiserated wishing it could have been different in NH. But in my more rational moments, it was clear that NH was exactly what he needed to lay the groundwork to win the general. All that hard work fighting in each state and debate after debate really helped him and his organization fully develop and for the American people to fully embrace him.
Thanks for all the great posts lately!
Viral Video Top 20
Submitted on January 9th, 2009 by Michael Chapman365 Day Chart: No 1: Will.I.am plus No 1 in sub categories Election 08 and Politics.
It was fun following its progress in the charts.
BondiBeachViews
Thanks Al
Submitted on January 9th, 2009 by Anonymous (Gemma) (not verified)for posting these anniversary reminders.
I still feel that possibly one of the very best things to happen to the Obama campaign last year was that loss in NH. It proved things weren't going to be easy - woke people to that fact (as some of the comments here prove about how they got involved as a result) and was a good cautionary tale come late October/early November to make sure all the hard work continued right to the end and nothing was taken for granted.
And yeah, the attitude some people are taking before the man has even taken the oath has been disappointing to say the least...
I was in Nashua that night...
Submitted on January 9th, 2009 by Mike Tracey (not verified)And although I had been an Obama supporter for quite awhile, that speech stuck with me in a profound way. It was amazing being there in person, experiencing what was probably the only major disappointment of the entire campaign. But it served us well, and Obama made the most of it, delivering what I think were his best remarks of the entire process.
I remember as the results were coming in, people were almost incredulous. We'd taken for granted that anything can happen on election night, and prepared ourselves for victory prematurely and started celebrating. I'd assumed that I'd be witnessing what was the final nail in Hillary's coffin, and Obama was essentially going to have clinched the nomination when all was said and done. But then the returns came in, and the mood in the auditorium got bleaker and bleaker, until we resigned ourselves to a loss.
Then Obama came out and riled us right back up again, he was indeed "still fired up and ready to go". And we were too. That speech motivated me to keep fighting, and keep fighting I did, until November 4th when the dream was finally realized. I'll be in Washington on the 20th, because I need to see again in person the result of this tumultuous ride, that sometimes the dreamers really do win, and we can all make a difference.
That night in NH
Submitted on January 9th, 2009 by Absentee Bob (not verified)I think buried in The Field's comment archives is one from me in which I guessed that HRC's victory would be a blessing in the long-run. If she had been knocked out of the race that January night, then Obama would have gone into the general unbattle tested, would not have had to stand up an organization and not had to fundraise in all 50 states, and not have to deal with Rev Wright early enough in the process to be old news by the time November rolled around. So from this Obama supporter, Thank You Hillary for winning NH.
Yes we can
Submitted on January 9th, 2009 by ABM (not verified)Beautiful, beautiful, beautiful.
Thank you Al.
OT: Nate rocks
Submitted on January 9th, 2009 by Tara Van NimanHas folks read this yet?
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/01/obamas-price-is-right-negotiating...
I find this fascinating analysis. Partly because I find his whole Price is Right negotiating strategy theory intriguing but also because it's coming from Nate. Here is a guy who is numbers oriented giving incredibly insightful analysis. Al and Nate...the stars of 2008 and beyond!
She did indeed provide a lesson...
Submitted on January 10th, 2009 by Tom W. (not verified)...in overcoming adversity - and clearly the man closest to her in that grand and grueling national ring was paying very close attention, indeed.
Good for her - she proved her mettle. And great for him: he grew several sizes in the months that followed.
Now begins the partnership...
@Tara
Submitted on January 10th, 2009 by Laura M. PoyneerThat is by far the most sensible thing I've read anywhere on the subject and worth far more than most of the Chicken Little-ing that so many blogs seem to indulge in. Nate Silver is a national treasure :D
thanks again
Submitted on January 19th, 2009 by Richard (not verified)Just catching up in my feed reader, and I come across this speech again. My goodness gracious, it made me cry again, just reading it. I'm staying home "sick" tomorrow to see him take office, up here in Canada (it's being played on all the major networks, English and French, everyone wants to watch it!). Thanks Al!