Return of the Underdog

http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2008/8/20/12179/3917/288#c288

Someone drew up a chart showing polling aggregates for each of the past three cycles.  It's two weeks out of date, but still useful.  Relative to Kerry and Gore, the only period of time that Obama had polled behind either was in March 2004/2008.  Kerry in March 2004 had sewn up the nomination.

Al, how do you think Colorado will react to McCain's comments about renegotiating the western state's long-standing water compact?

Although it looks at national polls rather than state polls, and state polls are the ones that count, I found this diary at Daily Kos helpful. It shows that McCain's recent strength is due to solidifying his performance among Republicans, but he is losing with independents lately. Obama is gaining with independents, but has lost some soft Democratic support. If this is true in general at the state level as well, I think that Obama is actually in a very good position.

Who would you rather be? McCain trying to win over the very independents he has driven off in the past month, or Obama trying to win back members of his own party? I would think the latter is a lot easier.

If this is going to be a big win (which is not necessarily the case), the most likely model would be 1980 when the race remained very tight until Reagan pulled away from Carter near the end as people became convinced he would make a good president.

I didn't even realize how badly I needed a Chicken Little booster shot until I read this.  Al, you are absolutely correct, as usual.  Also, on my way to work this morning I heard that JM isn't even a lock to win his (and my) home state of AZ.  Apparently BO is only within 10 pts here, which is amazing, since he was more than 25 pts ahead several months ago.  Plus BO has out fundraised the old coot here as well.  How do you like them apples?

Isn't Real Clear a Republican organization?  The trend averages at pollster.com have Obama with three point leads in Montana, Alaska and Nevada, a one and a half point lead in Ohio, leads in Colorado and Virginia.

Obama went from getting hit by Mark Penn to Penn's mentor, Rove.  There's no question that McCain is driving the arguments and Obama has been on his heels.  Obama has to get the public excited about his vision for the country while his surrogates tell the truth about McCain and spare us the 'we think he is an honorable man' stuff.. I'd support that refrain if it were true.

Now we see who is willing to put in the hard work, and who was just along for the ride when it looked like it might be a cakewalk to November.

I think I'm going to ease off my Daily Kos habit. Not only is their sky falling, the Orcs and Darth Vader have joined forces with Iago, Rasputin, and Monsanto. We're ALL GONNA DIE!!!

Al writes -  Obama plays the underdog role much better than he plays the frontrunner.

So true.  I'm not convinced that Obama is behind at all but as Al asked us to play along, I say remember in he summer when Obama was down 30 points to Clinton and didn't panic.

Of course a long primary season is different than a single general election but the Obama team is hyper organized and I get the sense that Obama is waiting till the convention and right after to hit McCain hard.  I suspect that the campaign has their strategy mapped out.

So many people are worried that Obama is like Kerry and too passive but what we've seen of Obama is that he is nothing like Kerry.  He's competitive, sharp, funny and likes to hit his opponents, regardless of what he says publicly about his politics.  The only thing he won't do is an out and out Swiftboat.

What he did to Clinton is case in point.  When he needed to hit her politically, he did.  When he didn't, he didn't and too many of the chattering class took that to mean that he was soft or didn' have a killer instinct when nothing could be further from the truth.

Obama has the competitive mentality of an athlete who happens to be hyper intelligent.

After McCain spends the last of his primary money this month Obama will raise about $80 to $100 Million in September and October for the general and will deluge McCain in terms of ads, staff, turnout operations etc... he and his campaign are simply pacing themselves and they are about to turn on the ignition for their unprecedented campaign battleship that they have been quietly building away from the spotlight of the chattering classes of Maureen Dowds and Mark Halperins.

My theory is that the news about the roll call has shaken some Democratic support loose, as some Clinton supporters are reminded of the primary season.  If all goes well in Denver -- and all are motivated toward that outcome since a bad convention would deeply injure Hillary Clinton's future electoral chances and political reputation, something of which she and Bill must be aware -- Democrats will consolidate.

One key player is Al Gore who, I would think, will speak the absolute importance of each and every vote. No vote is symbolic or should be cast to "deliver a message," but to elect a president. I hope he talks about that in Denver, around the country, and in advertisements.

Perfect timing on this Al. Sending this post to everyone.

I am watching the sky fall on some other sites and at the same time preparing for a 3-day Reno Obama trip to help the campaign. Field Hands, I will post details and contact info for both the Obama contacts in Reno plus my own if anyone wants to join in a Labor Day, post Convention Nevada blitz with us.

Seriously, it's the best way to inoculate: being on the ground.

I always come here when I need some perspective.  I'm trying to remain positive and to trust in the campaign.  They're really smart people who won the primaries when few people thought they could.  I think many got too complacent and took too much for granted.  Obama himself said this wouldn't be easy and he was right.

...I definitely need to find a way to calm myself down.  I understand that it's possible the ground game is more important than messaging but can't we have both??  I liked this diary over at Kos.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/20/113037/934/497/571051

I know, I know.  Armcharimen and all that and I do have confidence in the Obama team.  But I don't see where the messaging being proposed in the diary deviates from the overall Obama message.  I think it drives it home and I really do hope they get the attention of the media team.   It's similar to the primaries where I always envied the skill of the Clinton media team.  On message, tough message, repeat, repeat, repeat...

The convention being in Denver could really turn out to make a big difference.  I like our chances there and in NV, VA and maybe even OH.  KS I am not at all optimistic about and MS has always been a tall order.  GA seems somewhat attainable.

Kos actually did a good job of calming me down earlier with his front page rant on freaking out about one poll and keeping your eyes on the big picture.  And of course, all this is getting ready to change over the next couple of weeks.

Indeed, I am not particularly worried--and I take the electoral map senerio you posted above as a given.

I still think that Obama is a better campaigner, his policies are better, his team is more crafty/insightful, and his ground game is vastly superior.

Your narrative that figures McCrack ahead I think is actually a positive development--basically because it alarms a large number of people that easily tend to think that O-man has this election in the bag  (ok, people like me).   These folks will definately be more inclined to donate money and more agressively involve themselves in the campaign going into the homestretch.

McCrack's appearance at the Brokeback Mt.Church certainly did achieve a solidification of the Rep. base behind McCrack.  This was the calculated benefit from this venue.

No, I am not really worried.  I desparately want Obama to win, and will do what I can.

However, barring outright fraud, if a skilled left-of-center politico like Obama can't win this election in the face of deep economic problems and a substantial decline in US global prestige--well, that just means that the population is asking for more pain.   If O-man loses because of the deep racial fears and white priviledge here in the US, what the hell does that say about the US?

Anyway, again, I will do my best and project my best hopes that my fellow citizens can look at policies, and the historical record of the Bush administration.

By the way, there seems to be some massive head-faking toward Bayh (according to Yahoo News).

I will consolidate behind whomever Obama chooses at this point--even the vile Hillary.

You all know the types of VP that I would prefer--but I have to say that I am a bit disconcerted that this race is even close at this juncture.   But if anyone can pull ahead and win, it is Obama.

The corporate media don't want Obama (though the majority of the straight reporters may)--and they want to focus on the horserace elements of the campaign to boost profits.

Al: This is an excellent antidote to the chicken-littling to keep us tided over until the big Kaine rollout tomorrow.

I predict blogosphere necks will set a new land-speed record by snapping at light-speed from zomgz no national security credz and oh noes teh eyebrow over to w00t obamakaine ftw = 1337.

Tara - I've been surprised at Slinkerwink's "panic diaries" of late, but I actually thought that her and Dansac's new project of doing independent talking points is constructive, and follows the do-it-yourself advice that I often dole out here.

They'll find that A. It's much easier to talk about doing it than to do it effectively and B. It will keep them busy on something constructive. Would be that all panic diarists go that route!

In the primaries, what knocked off one one Republican Great White Hope after another? It was the spotlight. Each in turn was painted as The Winnah (Mittens? Grampa Fred? Huck fercrisssakes) and when they were, they were closely examined. Not before. McCain got the nomination, not because he was better, but because the spotlight never got around to him. Remember when he was written off, counted out, broke? He didn't win. Rather, everyone else lost, and he was left, even though he hadn't really been examined.

He still hasn't really been examined. Yes, Obama does underdog well. But more, perhaps Team Obama doesn't mind the idea of McCain getting the frontrunner spotlight for a bit. The spotlight has not been kind to the Rethugs so far. Maybe it won't be again.

Indeed, just a thought, and I admit that it is out-there:  wouldn't it be cool is Colin Powell was the VP pick?

I know, I know...but I am just say'n.  Barring any major gaffs, I think Obama/Powell would have the election in the bag.

And please, remind me why the Obama camp would roll-out the 'text-messaging' novelty if his choice were one of the stardard, 'safe' choices.

Hey, I am just say'n.

Okay, I will admit to panicing this morning and returning to my post 2004 attitude of "If America is this stupid than I am leaving the counrty mantra." Now that I have thought about it, I actually think this is the perfect set-up for the convention. It allows us to return to the Republicans are evil and we have to take our country back message. They will try to divide us and attack us but we won't let them! Get out there and work and fight and donate!! That message will be so much more real if people believe Obama is the underdog insurgent candidate again.

I tend to agree with you.  Slam dunk!

Of course, the howlers at DKos hate the idea, which gives me even more enthusiasm for Powell as VP.  I pointed out there that there's no more powerful endorsement or ally to reach the undecided or ambivalent than one who can say, I was wrong, and I have seen the light, and that's why I'm changing sides in this fight.

But the purists can't let go of their need to punish Powell for being in the wrong in the past, thus they are blind to how his choice would resonate with the great unwashed who lack their brilliance.

I've been thinking that Obama needs to be the underdog to win, and Al's comments about Kerry from back in 2003 really hit home:

There's the John Kerry I like (the guy who, in the middle of the
recent Gulf War II called for a "regime change in Washington") and then there's the overly cautious John Kerry which has been in control of the candidate for the rest of recent history. It might as well be said: The lesser Kerry can't beat Bush.

We also need a "regime change" in John Kerry's brain: he needs to be unhooked from the Borg. If he's left only to the Commercial Media's pressures, that will never happen.

To bring out the better Kerry, here's what I learned long ago: You have to get him mad. I used to be good at that, but I've been busy making others mad in recent years.

Here's the key: To wake Kerry up, you have to piss him off. You have to put his back up against the wall and slam into him with everything you've got to awaken his mutant powers. And then the real John Kerry stands up: he's golden in those moments: American politics' version of the Incredible Hulk. The American political highway is littered with the higher political aspirations of former giants (Jim Shannon, Ed Markey, Ray Shamie, Bill Weld, and a dozen or so others you probably haven't heard of) slain by Kerry when he was awake.

The Hulk can beat Bush.

Dr. Bruce Banner cannot.

Link here:

http://web.archive.org/web/20040202124604/www.bigleftoutside.com/archive...

Are we sure you are the same Steven of late??  You seem much calmer.  Someone has given you a big dose of zen.

You make the same basic point I made in an earlier thread about the VP announcement.  That the whole world seems to think it's Biden tells me it's not.  How do you make any sort of splash if the media already knew?  I'm not entirely opposed to Biden if that's what they think it takes to win.  I just don't think it's him.  I almost wonder if it's someone who took themselves out of consideration earlier...."I know I said I wouldn't but I want to do what's right by my country" sort of thing.

Al,

What else is there to say? You once again provided the booster shot for the chicken-littlism, armchair-phobia and doomsday-itis that is plaguing the blogosphere right now. I desperately needed reaffirming because I could feel the negativity creeping back into my thoughts. I think this latest poll is what we all need as wake-up call to get back to basics of working harder than ever before. For the sake of my sanity, I have made up my mind not to second-guess how Obama and his staff are running the campaign because I cannot control their actions, but I can control mine. I plan to canvass neighborhoods this weekend and as usual donate.

I'm just not feeling it. It's really disheartening to see us having to to explain to ourselves why "coming up six Electoral College points short of the 270 needed for victory - is not a bad starting point at all."

Not trying to sound defeatist and I'm not experiencing pangs of Chicken Little Syndrome. I'm honestly just taken aback that Obama finds himself in this position at all.

This could very well be a blessing in disguise. The Obama campaign does tend to function better as the underdog, so if that is what it takes for them to perform at their best? So be it. I'm okay with that. Here's hoping that they return to the brilliance they displayed during the primaries. Go Team Obama.

and Laura, first comment--also my sense, that McCain still has to straddle trying to bring in his reluctant Republican supporters by espousing policies likely to drive off the independents. And as Al notes, there's never been a ground game like this, and polling doesn't reflect new registration very well.

Are Dems always like this? I'm watching more closely than usual this year, and from the amount of handwringing and armchairmaning you'd never guess Obama led in polls and McCain lagged through the summer. There's some "why didn't we go with sure shot Romney?" writers out there, but they're dwarfed by the number of "why isn't he winning by 20 or 30 points?" panicking on the Dem side. It's quite weird to watch.

Get through both conventions and at least one debate, then see where the polls are. 

The First Obamacon: Bill Buckley

The American Conservative quotes from a book by Mark Royden Winchell called William F. Buckley Jr.

Perhaps Buckley’s most extreme please for racial preference came in a January 13, 1970 article in Look in which he argued for the election of a Negro president “in 1980 (or thereabouts) (GL, 181). His point is that such a dramatic gesture would be emotionally liberating for black and white alike. Significantly, the therapeutic candidacy would come not from among the national civil rights establishment, but from among “a class of young Negro leaders who work in the ghettos, in economic cooperatives, in straightforward social work, who are arguing that progress is possible within the System” (GL, 184).

 

There's more:

There are reasons for urging that final achievement (the black President) which are more important than merely buying the reassurance of American Negroes. They are a form not exactly of white expiation, though I would not dismiss this as a factor in any corporate effort to elect a black President. They are a form of self-assurance. The outstanding charge against America is hypocrisy. … the election of Negro public officials (yes, because they are Negro) is a considerable tonic for the white soul.

 

I mean that in the sense that is it really possible to go through all of the steps necessary to select someone and have it fly completely under the radar??  THAT would be impressive in and of itself.  Not to mention actually getting the guy to go along with it.

I've never paid so much attention to these things in the past but I tell ya I sure have learned that there is no such thing as the perfect choice.  At this point I guess I wouldn't even be surprised if it were Hillary.  Although I'm not convinced it would placate all of her folks and it would scare away a few Repubs like my father who are considering voting for Obama.

The diarist brought up the old GW Bush electoral tactic of picking three issues where the opponent is weak, and hit those themes relentlessly as a campaign (shades of "its the economy, stupid").  Bush ran in 2000 on tax cuts, NCLB, and the prescription drug plan.  Taking two traditionally Democratic issues-education and health care-helped him sell his whole "compassionate conservative" schtick, much in the way Clinton pitched welfare reform and deficit reduction along with health care in '92 to sell his "new democrat" image. 

I think the Obama campaign has got some good individual messages out there, and some good ads, but hasn't yet put together a good theme to tie everything together, IMO.  The convention would obviously be the best time to present that, when you have a lot of eyeballs on you. 

Tara -- I think it was John Edwards who was asked some months back on some talk show if he wanted to be VP, and answered "Nobody wants to be Vice President -- until they ask you."

So I wouldn't put any of the deniers absolutely out of contention if I thought they really made the decision on their own, but on the other hand, I suspect that for most of them, they were actually told by the campaign they were off the list and were allowed to announce they weren't interested to save face.

I was so hoping you would write this today and...YOU DID!

You can be sure the college towns in Michigan are trying to register students in THIS state. We have fact/myth sheets that debunk the malicious and false rumors that you lose health insurance or student loans if you change your voter registration location, and we're trying to convince students who are already registered in safe states to register here.

This week is "Welcome Week" at MSU (East Lansing - next door to Michigan's capital) and we're working all the student events extremely hard doing voter reg. There are 7,000 incoming freshmen on this campus, ripe for the picking. Furthermore, we want to show a strong presence, show that the Obama campaign is everywhere, and joining is easy, as opposed to the McCain campaign which has little presence yet. Captains are assigned to each dorm complex, to each apartment building, and they gather their own forces and work their areas.

In a couple hours, I'll be in front of the student bookstore, trying to get people who are in line for books to register. Every Thursday, Friday, and Saturday night, though, until the registration deadline, we're doing bar crawl registration on campus. Success rates triple or quadruple during these bar crawls; students are more willing to try something different like fill out a clipboard when they're intoxicated, and they're more inclined to get along with you if there's a drink in your hand as well.

Turnout in liberal places like East Lansing, Ann Arbor and Detroit proper are going to be absolutely vital to winning Michigan since a lot of the union democrats have left the state for lack of jobs. The Obama campaign knows the score in Michigan and they know what needs to be done to win the state.

Hey All,

I have found a direct inverse correlation between my sense of calm, purpose and excitement and the number of non-"The Field" (or Demconwatch.blog) information sources I read.  When I read LESS of the garbage out there (and that includes the comments section of fivethirtyeight.com which has ceased to be useful), I feel happier and...

...I spend MORE time working on the campaign.

The Los Angeles volunteer group I've been with for 8 months (and which has existed for over a year) just ran a Camp Obama last weekend that trained and fired up 180 new community organizers, specifically tasked with phonebanking and road tripping to NV (and possibly NM).  They'll also be called upon for voter reg but mostly as a source of potential volunteers for phonebanks and road trips. 

Those 180 people have subdivided in Congressional District teams and are all running phonebanks this week (immediately after being trained!).  And out of that group, we got a number to commit to a voter reg trip to Vegas this weekend (in which I'll also be participating) and found interns for the volunteer staff we've already sent from CA to NV.

And we're hoping to run TWO Camp Obamas PER WEEK all over California until the the election.

It's the best pyramid scheme ever, and the currency is HOPE and CHANGE!

I've found peace of mind by recruiting and training volunteers, registering voters (converting them to volunteers), and soliciting donations by setting up my own fundraising page on MyBo (I've raised nearly $8,000 this year for the O-man).

And you can too!

The price of admission is reading less (Halperin can kiss my ass; I've banished his bookmark!) and doing more.

If you haven't participated in a Camp Obama in your state, do it--the lessons are invaluable; the camraderie is amazing; and the results will be stupendous.

If there is no Camp Obama, just create a MyBo profile and look for phonebanking and voter reg events.

Ready, set, go!

Nekola @ 3:13 pm -

One of the biggest reasons that poll hand wringing and armchairmen annoy me so much is that its stuff, as you mentioned, that we have no control over.

I'd be very surprised if Obama does not pivot off the convention with a more visible surrogate presence, once he is the nominee and the Dems are officially "united".  But even if he doesn't, I have NO CONTROL over what strategy he chooses to deploy. I can only control my volunteer actions.  So I don't understand why I would choose to psych myself out and drag down every one around me with needless weeping and gnashing of teeth.

I am SO proud that Jason is a member of the Metro Motown Fieldhands Group!

Now, THAT'S the way to work it!

My nephew just got to MSU to go to Law School...I'm going to get him ON IT!!

Thanks, Jason!  Obama (and Alinsky), not to mention Al...have a JEWEL in you!

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

Thank you, Al.  I have forwarded this post on to all my Chicken Little friends and family. 

Also...here's the Digg link to help spread the word of Al.

http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/Obama_Return_of_the_Underdog

Another great post ... for all their talk about "narrative", the "sky is falling" folks don't seem to be have any notion of tempo

Also an excellent point about how building the field organization is so much more important at this stage than the poll results (something David Plouffe is highlighting as well). Pollsters need to make major adjustments adjustments both for new registrations and for changes in turnout -- and unless they're sharing their models, my assumption is that they're not, and as a result are over-estimating the conservative white vote and underestimating the impact of the youth vote.

jon

I have posted a diary at Daily Kos with a serious proposal for drawing media coverage of the protests outside the Xcel Center when the last few proud Republicans gather in St. Paul for their funeral, I mean, convention.

My suggestion: on the night of September 2nd, when Giulinineeleveni keynotes, have all protesters dress in drag as a salute to Rudy's favorite pastime!

I'd love it if you read and rec me up....

Forgive me, Al, you HAVE trained me well, and I AM busy with volunteering, I promise(today am sending materials from CA to IN). Nevertheless:

AAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRGGGGHHHHHGHHH!!!!!!!!

Waiting for this flipping VP announcement is like waiting for the results of a pregnancy test over a weekend.

I just got an email announcing the opening of a Salt Lake City, Utah Obama office. http://my.barackobama.com/page/s/utofficeopening

My sense is that Obama knows he is not going to win Utah, absent McCain picking Huckabee.  So the opening of an office is curious.

But could there be a return on investment here that goes beyond Electoral Votes?  The Obama campaign has probably done a comparative analysis between states/cities with field offices and w/o field offices re donations, volunteers, etc.  My guess is that interest spikes when there is an Obama office in town that pays for the office in $$ plus dividends in volunteers for border states such as Colorado and Nevada.  Utah gave to Obama huge in the primaries, and there are a lot of frustrated dems living in Zion.

McCain's 'maverick' claim only works when he's the underdog. He has almost no experience holding a lead in national polling. All I see is he's shored up a little of the wavering support among evangelicals.

And like I said last Spring, the first national polls I really care about are those that appear when convention afterglow has faded, or about Sept 15th. We now get three weeks of Obama setting the stage and then the 7 weeks that count, building momentum in the first 6 to peak a week before Election Day. (That sways the last minute undecideds.)

I just spent a week almost completely off-line and I can report that the economy still sucks and in the real front against terrorism (Afghanistan), things are going backwards. Those remain the big monkeys on McCain's back that no amount of glib can undo.

And people are aware of that, keenly. Team Obama only has to connect the dots at this point, as he gears up for the Big Media push to back the ground ops.

"I'd be very surprised if Obama does not pivot off the convention with a more visible surrogate presence, once he is the nominee and the Dems are officially "united".  But even if he doesn't, I have NO CONTROL over what strategy he chooses to deploy. I can only control my volunteer actions.  So I don't understand why I would choose to psych myself out and drag down every one around me with needless weeping and gnashing of teeth."

Obama has been a disappointment these past few weeks (Dansac's diary is right on the money, I think), but Kat's point is well taken. The whole "Obama knows what he's doing, he has it all figured out" attitude is tough to take at times, but I'll admit that expressing frustration with the message doesn't serve any constructive purpose, especially on a site that's increasingly focused on organizing.

Al is spot on with his observation about college voter registrations. Our local field organizer did 80 new registrations at a campus in a neighboring county this weekend. That is almost exactly 0.5% of the total voter population in that county - in one weekend! There is absolutely no reason not to expect her and others to duplicate this performance many times in the weeks ahead - she has a freshman class of over 2000 to work with for starters.

This same county has already seen nearly a 5% expansion of the voter roles with new registrations - before the big registration push started - with a net change for republicans of -30 since the beginning of the year.

This is in NC. If you expand the electorate by 5-10%, and get a solid majority of those votes, all of a sudden likely voter polling models go straight out the window.

So get out from behind your computer and go out and start registering folks.

Great thread and I agree with everything here. One of my own small, pet theories is that if you take everyone who just became of voting age, add them on, and then add those who are going to school out of state to register in the proper state, you could get a new block that may not show up in the polls at all right now (especially given the cellphone thing). I know that when I was in college, we all voted in Ohio instead of our home states.

Anyway, since going on vacation this summer I've stopped watching political TV and even reading most political sites except for this one, 538, and some Kos and I can tell the difference between myself now and those who keep up with the punditry. There's just so much irrelevant crap going on.

In fact, I just got called about being an Obama team leader. I'm not sure if I have the time -- I work long hours, have a baby at home, and am writing a book -- but if I continue to replace TV & blogging time with volunteering maybe it can work out. It's this thread and others like it from Al that motivated me to give it a shot. Wish me luck!

As I'm sure you all recognize, my subject line is also the first line from Rudyard Kilpling's astounding poem, If.  We might all do well to re-read it today:

http://www.davidpbrown.co.uk/poetry/rudyard-kipling.html

I trusted Team Obama last fall/winter when things looked grim.  They turned it around.  I trusted Team Obama in June and July when things were going swimmingly.  Now the water's looking a tad rougher.  I continue to trust them today, and will tomorrow.

Don't buckle, become disheartened, or succumb to fear.  It's what the evil ones wish for you to do.  It's how evil and darkness win.  To wit, look no further than the 2004 presidential election.

In our personal and professional realtionships, it's when the spam hits the fan that we discover who was really our friend or ally, and who was merely 'along for the ride' while the sunny days lasted.

Count me among the loyal friends of Team Obama.  In fact, I'm going to make yet another contribution to Obama as soon as I finish this.  I encourage you all to do likewise, and to get your friends, colleagues and family members moving too.  Now is when a show of support is the most needed and appreciated.

And finally, two thoughts about VPs:

I believe John Sidney McCain III will choose the painfully wooden, embarrassingly flip-floppy Mittster.  But let us not forget a now little-mentioned McCain wildcard:  Condi "I Really Didn't Handle 9/11 So Well" Rice.

And though I know I'm becoming a pest on here for constantly bringing it up, please permit me one more time (before it's too late) to go firmly on record as saying I believe Senator Obama will pick Virginia Senator JIM WEBB for his VP.  And please, remember where you heard it; it'll save me much time when I start with he 'I told you so's'! : )

Hey Al, here's another example of Obama's Mac the Knife strategy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXj4mEwM6PQ

The ad is only running in Georgia, where Reed ran and lost for the position of Lt. Governor.  The pundits and the chicken littles don't see these ads.  The voters do.

All the talk about Biden, and to a lesser extent Kaine, makes me think it's going to be someone like Sebelius, or maybe even Reed from Rhode Island.

Sebelius, like Obama, seems very disciplined - note that we've heard not a peep out of her people (granted, could be an indication that she's not being considered, but we'll see).

Those of us claiming moral superiority over the handwringing of Chicken Littles elsewhere must exercise caution to avoid a different fowl-borne malady of our own making ... Ostrichism.  This ailment was an epidemic in much of the Northeast U.S. and Pacific Northwest in 2004.  It unfortunately afflicted yours truly (particularly after the early exit polls were leaked) as well as our fearless leader (who confidently predicted a Kerry victory in his prior blogging life).

We must be balanced in considering all of the available data before counting our chickens prematurely.

• It is still relatively-early in the general election cycle.  We are most likely in the 3rd or 4th inning.  More than half of the game remains to be played.
• The Obama camp appears to enjoy a strong relative enthusiasm gap among its supporters.  That and a laserlike focus on the ground game could make all the difference in November.  There is still much work still to be done
  
• Nevertheless, at this stage, the Republicans appear to be much more united behind their candidate than the Democrats.  It's one thing to be answering McCain's surrogates.  It's quite another to be answering Bill Clinton, Ted Strickland, Chuck Schumer, etc.
• The media isn't doing our guy any favors.  They have overexposed him, constantly second and triple-guessed his every move and parroted the attacks and talking points of his opponent and his opponent's surrogates. 
  
• Just because the Obama campaign did a masterful job in the Democratic primaries (at least up until Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania) does not mean that it will always do a masterful job in the general election.  It will make mistakes, and it will have fits and starts. 
  
• Barack Obama appears to be a fine man.  But he is not perfect (as he himself has indicated).  I personally believe he has more flaws as a politician than as a human being (perhaps the exact inverse of Bill Clinton in this regard).  I personally don't believe he is especially well-served by his embrace of finesse, nuance, gerunds or a hemming-and-hawing extemporaneous speaking style during this campaign.  Those flaws -- along with average debating skills -- can be overcome with acknowledgement, attention and practice. 
  
• John McCain appears to be a less fine man than I considered him to be in 2000.  Nevertheless, he is a more formidable political figure than many here give him credit.  His campaign's celebrity attack ads on Obama have been much more effective than many of us envisioned.  His campaign also appears to be much more effective at framing the issues, staying on message and shaping the media narrative.
• Just because John McCain is leading now doesn't mean he will be leading in November.  Just because Barack Obama was leading up until recently doesn't mean he will be leading in November, either.
• Based on the most recent polling (which has its limitations) Obama has lost a reasonable margin in the most important swing states.  While this is not fatal news, it is certainly not especially good news. 
  
• The Obama camp is responsible for driving up the anticipation of his VP choice to a fever pitch.  If it chooses a mainstream political figure (Bayh, Biden, Clinton), it fully deserves the associated fallout and criticism.
• This is not going to be an easy and breezy election.  It is likely to get much tougher from here on out.

I'm with you on the Webb thing. I never have gotten myself past the idea that he would be a great choice, despite some of the baggage he brings. Wishful thinking, I suspect, but as I said earlier, I'm just really convinced that it is NOT one of the names that has been so strongly put forth by the talking heads.

Kurt, I too have been contacted to be a leader of the Women for Obama in the area. It's a bit intimidating for me and I am out of my comfort zone but I am going to suck it up and do it anyway. I would never forgive myself if I didn't do everything I could to win this thing.

Vik - very, very good post.  But I must say, picking Clinton would not be a letdown to a lot of people, most certainly the media.  They'd have a frickin' field day and the fever pitch would have been well warranted.  This is not what I am advocating...just saying you can hardly compare the reception that Bayh would get to that of Clinton.

Al,

RE: polls not factoring in AA and youth vote, you are 100% correct

Remember pollsters undestimated Obama's lead in North Carolina by about 10-12 points? Pollsters discounted any surge in AA and youth turnout, they
are repeating that mistake. Obama shattered state records for both demographics in that primary, except another record in general.

A few markers:

Be sure to keep eye out on Durham county registrations which are through the roof. Republicans are just now waking up to the huge margins they will
need to offset in rest of state. Pay attention to Fort Bragg area, expect a nasty surprise for McCain in former GOP stronghold.

Remember John Kerry's strategy of relying on 3rd party to get out the youth vote? They increased turnout 18-29 about 4% from 2000. Obama's
going to double that easily. Every single college campus in NC has a highly organized Obama campaign team already gearing up for a big September
registration push and November GOTV. There is no leaving the youth vote to will they or won't they show up, it will be a highly coordinated effort
campus-wide peer pressure, with everyone asking did you vote yet for Obama. Note UNC Chapel Hill approved for voting site and the primary
volunteers already re-organizing their highly succcessful shuttles to voting booth.
 
As for AA, check the state registrations, Obama team wisely did not let up all summer long. The number of volunteers in NC to get AAs to poll simply mind-blogging.

with your assertion that the attacks by the republicans have created the appearance of a tightening race. There are three factors that I can identify.

First there is something of a stalemate in the Democratic party, for several reasons there are undecided Democrats who aren't going to commit, yet, at least until after the convention.

Second there is increasing tension in the economy which does no one any good.

Third the Republicans tend to hold back and are just beginning to attack in earnest. The letters to editors in my newspapers have been filled with the typical lies and distortions that the old bullshitter himself is using. These have just recently started. Republicans are dusting off the Clinton smear-mails and spamming their neighbors and friends.

Meanwhile Obama took a well deserved vacation and Democrats are busy organizing for their convention. Also meanwhile the ground game folks are getting organized and setting up for the next push.

In fact I think that the Republicans might be behind right now. Just think about that arrogant smugness of McCain in the last shot of his Olympics ad. I believe that arrogance will wear very thin in the next month.

I am liking this line of attack.  Ben Smith calls it the Dr. Strangelove meme:

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/08/obama_campaign_mccain_is_a_rec.php

trigger-happy; shoots first, asks questions later.

I also like when Obama said earlier this week "the difference in this election is that McCain wants to keep spending $10 billion a month indefinitely to keep us in Iraq"

And my last point - please don't let anyone concede that the surge is working.  If you're on the phone and someone says but look McCain supported the surge and it's working, just remind them of this:
Bush first announced his plans for the surge January 10, 2007.