Show Time!
By Al Giordano

Polls have closed in much of Indiana and Kentucky, and at 7 p.m. ET are scheduled to close in the rest of those states. Also coming up at seven o'clock: Florida, Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina and Vermont.
Here's our sked for the evening:

Consider this an open thread while I crunch numbers and we wait for the curtains to open...
Update I: Here's a taste of some great appetizers coming in early this evening:
A shout out to Field Hands Brendan and Siddharta working in Vigo County, Indiana (which includes Terra Haute), where...
With 69 percent of precincts reporting:
Obama: 57 percent
McCain: 42 percent
(2004 results in same county: Bush 53 percent, Kerry 46.)
Remember that in 2004 Bush won Indiana statewide by 19 percentage points (which means that for Obama to win it statewide he has to close the gap by 9.5 percent plus a few votes). In Vigo County Obama has closed the 2004 gap by 11 percent. That's on target, plus a point-and-a-half, to win the state if similar trends occur statewide.
Update II: CNN projects Obama in Vermont and McCain in Kentucky (no surpri s es there) but is unable to make projections in Virginia (expected), Indiana (interesting), Georgia (very interesting) or South Carolina (verrrrrryyyyyy interesting!). If that lasts more than a half hour, it's a very bad sign for McCain. Told ya so!
Update III: In Chesterfield County, Virginia, where Bush beat Kerry with 63 to 37 percent four years ago, the count currently has Obama up seven - to 44 - and McCain down 9 - to 54 - which, like those Indiana numbers above, if that kind of swing translates statewide, would mean an Obama victory in Virginia. We can't presume it yet, but the data is very very encouraging for that scenario.
Update IV: In Lake County and Miami-Dade County, Florida, Obama is over-performing Kerry's 2004 totals by seven percent in a state Kerry lost by five. Drink!
Update V: Put on yer seatbelts! In 2004 Kerry won Mecklenburg County, North Carolina narrowly with 52 percent of the vote. Tonight, Obama is winning that same county - home to Charlotee - with 68 percent.
Update VI: First bad news for Obama tonight (although it was predicted here yesterday and in previous reporting): In Palm Beach County, Florida, won by John Kerry with 61 percent of the vote, Obama is under-performing by five percentage points, with just 56 percent. The reason? Elderly Jewish-Americans. Still too early to count him out statewide, but he will have to over-perform even better in the I-4 corridor and elsewhere to take the Sunshine State.
Update VII: MSNBC has called New Hampshire and Pennsylvania for Obama. Got that champagne on ice? Get ready to pop it.


Last Call
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by James HaygoodMade my last calls around lunchtime today - to Virginia (25 people in our Venice, CA phonebank). All the people I talked to were elderly, every one had already voted for Obama. My last call was to a 65 year old woman, who told me, "I'm a Republican, and I voted for Obama.."
Great way to end an amazing campaign experience.
It's been a long day in Chicago's northern suburbs
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Nalani McClendonand it's an obvious clinch for Obama but we are waiting to see if Dan Seals can beat out Mark Kirk-R in IL-10. Kirk has been robocalling telling folks that he's about change so vote for Obama and him. We were even warned that his supporters would be wearing Obama shirts while passing out the Kirk literature. Cross fingers.
This is a district that used to be reliably Republican but Democrats have moved into the district big-time. And now, the Dems are total activists. We have folks who have driven faithfully to IN, WI, and MI. Many are there now but many were home to work the ground game for the Dem ticket. I poll watched in the morning and spent the rest of the day in the township Dem office organizing the troops. And they never stopped coming. Seniors, high school students, suburban moms, dads, matrons. It's quite the sight.
I am up and can't wait. Got CNN & BBC.
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Agoram MuthukumaranHow good these exit polls will be this time ?
amk
@Amk
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by cdm (not verified)Did you get BBC through the internet? is it available?
Today we called Ohio,
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Anushka (not verified)Today we called Ohio, virginia and Iowa. Had a blast. I do think that Al's predictions are a bit conservative. But, I don't think he minds being a tad wrong this time.
cdm - no. I have them on cable. Larry Sabato now on BBC
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Agoram Muthukumaransaying don't put too much trust on those exit polls.
amk
Here we go
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Agoram MuthukumaranVT - Obama KY - JM Unable to call VA now.
amk
I've been up since about 4am
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by lamh31 (not verified)I've been up since about 4am (I went to bed early). I started the day by watching MSNBC, but I couldn't stand to watch Joe Scar any longer. So I have been online and keeping up on the elections news. REading voting stories at various sites, etc. I'm recording the election coverage on my Tivo, but I don't plan on watcing any live coverage until after the 7pm states begin to come in. I'm particularly interested in Virginia, since I have been listening to urban radio shows and people have been calling in discussing some issue with Virgina and voting.
So it's great to be able to come to The Field and keep up with everything.
Some calls on MSNBC!
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Kris JohnsonKentucky - McCain
Vermont - Obama
Indiana - too CLOSE to call
Georgia - too early to call
South Carolina - too early to call
Oops, I forgot -- Virginia - too early to call
Kentucky senate seat is too close to call as well.
(Is that bad for our chances at GA?)
Lots of kids driven to polls in NH
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Jess (not verified)The group my husband was with in Keene drove over 900 students to the polls to vote today. They were also at UNH in Durham (? - not sure I've got the town exactly right, I'm operating on very little sleep and a brewing chest cold or something) and had a bunch of volunteers ferrying students there. When he gets home I'm sure he'll tell me the numbers. Either way it sounded hopeful from the brief conversations we had!
Kos calling VA for Obama & Warner. Says Not even close.
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Agoram MuthukumaranBut CNN - still too close to call.
Is Kos doing his own exit polls ?
amk
LOL. CNN literally beamed in Jessica Yellin from Chicago.
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Agoram MuthukumaranA Star Wars Night ? Princess Leah ?
amk
Kos retracts. But Indiana good enough for me.
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Hudson (not verified)Kos has now retracted that Virginia call.
Bad, bad Kos.
But if Obama is even or even substantially outperforming Kerry in rural Indiana, this is over. Just wait for Gary to come in.
Jessica
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by We Won't get Fooled again (not verified)Should have worn Danish on her ears.
@AMK - Kos apologized on VA
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by nepat (not verified)Got it wrong. But, man, it sure tasted good for the 15 minutes it was up there!
Kos walking back on VA for Obama ? Warner is in the bag.
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Agoram Muthukumaranamk
amk, KOS updated his
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by lamh31 (not verified)amk,
KOS updated his Virgina post, he meant Warner not Obama, but Obama looks to be in the lead.
Come on Virginia
Yes, nepat. Those 15 minutes were great
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Agoram Muthukumaranamk
Past the Half hour mark...
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Kris JohnsonStill too early to call in many states! I would say this is bad for McCain. Especially when it includes states such as West Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina.
Al ---
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Kris JohnsonChuck Todd just reiterated what you said a week or so ago in your "largest electoral state" post about all the states that touch Illinois, and how it is indeed being seen tonight. Just thought you'd want to know! Another correct prediction.
I tried to post a youtube
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Barry CrimminsI tried to post a youtube file here but failed so I posted it on my site. Someone please lift the code and put it here. It's the perfect song for tonight. I promise.
http://barrycrimmins.com/index.php?page=news&display=1558
Thanks,
Barry
CNN - SC for JM. Indiana still too close to call.
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Agoram Muthukumaranamk
OMG - PA is over!
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Tara Van NimanYee-haw!! Straight out of the gate...big margin!
Kos reporting MSNBC calls PA for Obama ? Anyone with
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Agoram MuthukumaranMSNBC can post here about that ?
amk
NPR just called Pennsylvania for Obama!!
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Susan KitchensNew Hampshire, too.
MSNBC calls Pennsylvania...
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Kris Johnsonfor Obama!
New Hampshire as well (both right as the polls closed - I'd say that's a great sign).
No other surprises in the callings (Illinois, New Jersey and all of new england to Obama -- Tennessee and Oklahoma for McCain).
103-34 electoral college right now.
Florida - too close to call (Obama leading with 15% in)
Missouri - too close to call (0% in)
Too early to call ALABAMA
MS and AL
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by john in illinois (not verified)too early to call? What does that say about McCain. Those should have been immediate calls for JM. He'll win them but this is ridiculous. I am toasting a victory.
Go PA. CNN is just keeping the lid on it. Campbell urging Wolf
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Agoram Muthukumaranto go for it.
I think the straight talk express crashed just now.
amk
shaheen
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Suzy ShureNBC just called it for Shaheen! THank you JESS & Fellow field hands!
@Barry - Jimmy time
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Joel WiensSuzy - That's great news. That means Sununu is out, right ?
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Agoram Muthukumaranamk
Check out Fox News!
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Barry CrimminsIt is a morgue! There's not even any ambient noise in the background.
Thanks Joel!
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Barry CrimminsFOX refusing to call Pa!
VA nos. on CNN, a bit worrying. I want VA for symbolic reasons.
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Agoram Muthukumaranamk
@ Suzy
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Jess (not verified)Oh that's fantastic news! I don't think I helped persaude anyone her direction but I am so glad to hear that she won!
Axelrod on CNN. Still being wonky, cool and collected.
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Agoram Muthukumaranamk
Alan Grayson wins
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by bonkers (not verified)Not sure how many Fieldhands know about Grayson, but he's one of the most exciting House candidates I've ever seen. He just beat a Repub incumbant in a landslide in FL. Fantastic!
AMK--
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Kris JohnsonOn FOX News, of all places, they were saying that the Obama campaign told them that they exceeded all their turnout models in Virginia (moreso than during Kaine's election victory) and were very optimistic. Think of it this way -- the places without the long lines are reporting first, because in the precincts with long lines, they could not report on time. Those are more likely to be democratic-leaning districts, so the numbers should go up. Wait until we see Richmond and Northern Virginia - those areas should be very strong for Obama.
Fox News also saying that Obama campaign believes they will squeeze out a victory in Indiana, but it will be very close.
Stop worrying
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Al GiordanoAmk - You can be such a worry wort sometimes. Tonight of all nights, it's a waste of your energy.
Silly ballots in Palm Beach
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Christine CovelliThey have ridiculous ballots. The lawyers for Bush and Gore are there. [Source: msnbc.com]
I like the sound of
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Dan W. (not verified)Senator Kay Hagan.
Thanks Kris. VA is the bellwether (for me at least) that will
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Agoram Muthukumaransay that America has finally turned the page.
Hope Our Man pulls through.
amk
VA
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Tara Van NimanDoes anyone have good knowledge of what they have counted in VA? I know IN is looking good but other than Al's update 3 above, I'm not hearing a whole lot about it.
LOL. Thanks Al for talking me down.
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Agoram Muthukumaranamk
DOLE out
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Suzy ShureNBC giving the seat to Hagan!
Love it...Dole is gone.
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Alexa (not verified)Elizabeth Dole iS G.O.N.E.
GA for McInsane
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by bonkers (not verified)NBC just called GA for CrazyTrain
MSNBC
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Kris Johnsonis calling Georgia for McCain. I've noticed this evening that MSNBC is much quicker on the calling - want to be the first to call for Obama tonight?? This is a disappointment, but in line with Al's projections. It was always a longshot.
GA to mcLame
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Suzy ShureNBC giving GA to McLame, senate seat not called yet
CNN calls PA for Obama. Finally....
Submitted on November 4th, 2008 by Agoram Muthukumaranamk