Show Time!

By Al Giordano

Polls have closed in much of Indiana and Kentucky, and at 7 p.m. ET are scheduled to close in the rest of those states. Also coming up at seven o'clock: Florida, Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina and Vermont.

Here's our sked for the evening:

Consider this an open thread while I crunch numbers and we wait for the curtains to open...

Update I: Here's a taste of some great appetizers coming in early this evening:

A shout out to Field Hands Brendan and Siddharta working in Vigo County, Indiana (which includes Terra Haute), where...

With 69 percent of precincts reporting:

Obama: 57 percent

McCain: 42 percent

(2004 results in same county: Bush 53 percent, Kerry 46.)

Remember that in 2004 Bush won Indiana statewide by 19 percentage points (which means that for Obama to win it statewide he has to close the gap by 9.5 percent plus a few votes). In Vigo County Obama has closed the 2004 gap by 11 percent. That's on target, plus a point-and-a-half, to win the state if similar trends occur statewide.

Update II: CNN projects Obama in Vermont and McCain in Kentucky (no surpri s es there) but is unable to make projections in Virginia (expected), Indiana (interesting), Georgia (very interesting) or South Carolina (verrrrrryyyyyy interesting!). If that lasts more than a half hour, it's a very bad sign for McCain. Told ya so!

Update III: In Chesterfield County, Virginia, where Bush beat Kerry with 63 to 37 percent four years ago, the count currently has Obama up seven - to 44 - and McCain down 9 - to 54 - which, like those Indiana numbers above, if that kind of swing translates statewide, would mean an Obama victory in Virginia. We can't presume it yet, but the data is very very encouraging for that scenario.

Update IV: In Lake County and Miami-Dade County, Florida, Obama is over-performing Kerry's 2004 totals by seven percent in a state Kerry lost by five. Drink!

Update V: Put on yer seatbelts! In 2004 Kerry won Mecklenburg County, North Carolina narrowly with 52 percent of the vote. Tonight, Obama is winning that same county - home to Charlotee - with 68 percent.

Update VI: First bad news for Obama tonight (although it was predicted here yesterday and in previous reporting): In Palm Beach County, Florida, won by John Kerry with 61 percent of the vote, Obama is under-performing by five percentage points, with just 56 percent. The reason? Elderly Jewish-Americans. Still too early to count him out statewide, but he will have to over-perform even better in the I-4 corridor and elsewhere to take the Sunshine State.

Update VII: MSNBC has called New Hampshire and Pennsylvania for Obama. Got that champagne on ice? Get ready to pop it.

Comments

Last Call

Made my last calls around lunchtime today - to Virginia (25 people in our Venice, CA phonebank).  All the people I talked to were elderly, every one had already voted for Obama.  My last call was to a 65 year old woman, who told me, "I'm a Republican, and I voted for Obama.."

Great way to end an amazing campaign experience.

It's been a long day in Chicago's northern suburbs

and it's an obvious clinch for Obama but we are waiting to see if Dan Seals can beat out Mark Kirk-R in IL-10. Kirk has been robocalling telling folks that he's about change so vote for Obama and him. We were even warned that his supporters would be wearing Obama shirts while passing out the Kirk literature. Cross fingers.

This is a district that used to be reliably Republican but Democrats have moved into the district big-time. And now, the Dems are total activists. We have folks who have driven faithfully to IN, WI, and MI. Many are there now but many were home to work the ground game for the Dem ticket. I poll watched in the morning and spent the rest of the day in the township Dem office organizing the troops. And they never stopped coming. Seniors, high school students, suburban moms, dads, matrons. It's quite the sight.

I am up and can't wait. Got CNN & BBC.

How good these exit polls will be this time ?

amk

@Amk

Did you get BBC through the internet? is it available?

Today we called Ohio,

Today we called Ohio, virginia and Iowa. Had a blast. I do think that Al's predictions are a bit conservative. But, I don't think he minds being a tad wrong this time.

cdm - no. I have them on cable. Larry Sabato now on BBC

saying don't put too much trust on those exit polls.

amk

Here we go

VT - Obama  KY - JM Unable to call VA now.

amk

I've been up since about 4am

I've been up since about 4am (I went to bed early).  I started the day by watching MSNBC, but I couldn't stand to watch Joe Scar any longer.  So I have been online and keeping up on the elections news.  REading voting stories at various sites, etc.  I'm recording the election coverage on my Tivo, but I don't plan on watcing any live coverage until after the 7pm states begin to come in.  I'm particularly interested in Virginia, since I have been listening to urban radio shows and people have been calling in discussing some issue with Virgina and voting.

So it's great to be able to come to The Field and keep up with everything.

Some calls on MSNBC!

Kentucky - McCain

Vermont - Obama

Indiana - too CLOSE to call

Georgia - too early to call

South Carolina - too early to call

Oops, I forgot -- Virginia - too early to call

Kentucky senate seat is too close to call as well.

(Is that bad for our chances at GA?)

Lots of kids driven to polls in NH

The group my husband was with in Keene drove over 900 students to the polls to vote today. They were also at UNH in Durham (? - not sure I've got the town exactly right, I'm operating on very little sleep and a brewing chest cold or something) and had a bunch of volunteers ferrying students there. When he gets home I'm sure he'll tell me the numbers. Either way it sounded hopeful from the brief conversations we had!

Kos calling VA for Obama & Warner. Says Not even close.

But CNN - still too close to call.

Is Kos doing his own exit polls ?

amk

LOL. CNN literally beamed in Jessica Yellin from Chicago.

A Star Wars Night ? Princess Leah ?

amk

Kos retracts. But Indiana good enough for me.

Kos has now retracted that Virginia call.

 

Bad, bad Kos.

 

But if Obama is even or even substantially outperforming Kerry in rural Indiana, this is over. Just wait for Gary to come in.

Jessica

Should have worn Danish on her ears.

@AMK - Kos apologized on VA

Got it wrong. But, man, it sure tasted good for the 15 minutes it was up there!

amk,   KOS updated his

amk,

 

KOS updated his Virgina post, he meant Warner not Obama, but Obama looks to be in the lead.

Come on Virginia

Yes, nepat. Those 15 minutes were great

amk

Past the Half hour mark...

Still too early to call in many states! I would say this is bad for McCain. Especially when it includes states such as West Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina.

Al ---

Chuck Todd just reiterated what you said a week or so ago in your "largest electoral state" post about all the states that touch Illinois, and how it is indeed being seen tonight. Just thought you'd want to know! Another correct prediction.

I tried to post a youtube

I tried to post a youtube file here but failed so I posted it on my site. Someone please lift the code and put it here. It's the perfect song for tonight. I promise.

 

http://barrycrimmins.com/index.php?page=news&display=1558

Thanks,

Barry

OMG - PA is over!

Yee-haw!!  Straight out of the gate...big margin!

Kos reporting MSNBC calls PA for Obama ? Anyone with

MSNBC can post here about that ?

amk

NPR just called Pennsylvania for Obama!!

New Hampshire, too.

MSNBC calls Pennsylvania...

for Obama!

 

New Hampshire as well (both right as the polls closed - I'd say that's a great sign).

 

No other surprises in the callings (Illinois, New Jersey and all of new england to Obama -- Tennessee and Oklahoma for McCain).

103-34 electoral college right now.

 

Florida - too close to call (Obama leading with 15% in)

Missouri - too close to call (0% in)
Too early to call ALABAMA

MS and AL

too early to call?  What does that say about McCain.  Those should have been immediate calls for JM.  He'll win them but this is ridiculous.  I am toasting a victory.

Go PA. CNN is just keeping the lid on it. Campbell urging Wolf

to go for it.

I think the straight talk express crashed just now.

amk

shaheen

NBC just called it for Shaheen!  THank you JESS & Fellow field hands!

@Barry - Jimmy time

Check out Fox News!

It is a morgue! There's not even any ambient noise in the background.

Thanks Joel!

FOX refusing to call Pa!

@ Suzy

Oh that's fantastic news! I don't think I helped persaude anyone her direction but I am so glad to hear that she won!

Alan Grayson wins

Not sure how many Fieldhands know about Grayson, but he's one of the most exciting House candidates I've ever seen.  He just beat a Repub incumbant in a landslide in FL.  Fantastic!

AMK--

On FOX News, of all places, they were saying that the Obama campaign told them that they exceeded all their turnout models in Virginia (moreso than during Kaine's election victory) and were very optimistic. Think of it this way -- the places without the long lines are reporting first, because in the precincts with long lines, they could not report on time. Those are more likely to be democratic-leaning districts, so the numbers should go up. Wait until we see Richmond and Northern Virginia - those areas should be very strong for Obama.

 

Fox News also saying that Obama campaign believes they will squeeze out a victory in Indiana, but it will be very close.

Stop worrying

Amk - You can be such a worry wort sometimes. Tonight of all nights, it's a waste of your energy.

Silly ballots in Palm Beach

They have ridiculous ballots. The lawyers for Bush and Gore are there.  [Source: msnbc.com]

I like the sound of

Senator Kay Hagan.

Thanks Kris. VA is the bellwether (for me at least) that will

say that America has finally turned the page.

Hope Our Man pulls through.

amk

VA

Does anyone have good knowledge of what they have counted in VA?  I know IN is looking good but other than Al's update 3 above, I'm not hearing a whole lot about it.

LOL. Thanks Al for talking me down.

amk

DOLE out

NBC giving the seat to Hagan!

Love it...Dole is gone.

Elizabeth Dole iS G.O.N.E.

GA for McInsane

NBC just called GA for CrazyTrain

MSNBC

is calling Georgia for McCain. I've noticed this evening that MSNBC is much quicker on the calling - want to be the first to call for Obama tonight?? This is a disappointment, but in line with Al's projections. It was always a longshot.

GA to mcLame

NBC giving GA to McLame,  senate seat not called yet

CNN calls PA for Obama. Finally....

amk

I wonder how GA will finally finish out

Sad to see it go so early.  I was holding out hope.  Greedy - yes.

VA

Here's TrapperJohn from Daily Kos on VA

Yeah, Obama is down 100,000 votes in Virginia, but there have been hardly any votes reported from the ver y large and very solid blue NoVa counties -- Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax.  Just wait -- it took Webb a while to lock that race down in 2006, largely because NoVa came in slower. Everything is cool -- Virginia is still very much in play

KD

I love America!

Dole is toast! Shaheen defeats Sununuke!

I love The Field!

I need another drink!

Pennsylvania, North Carolina....

It must be the "Bradley Effect!"

Oh...wait....

How reliable is

How reliable is this?

http://www.mahalo.com/Ohio_Election_Results

  • 8:51 PM EST: CNN reporting Obama leads 61% to 38% (1% of precincts reporting)

The lurker from Kenya posts again.

Hello field hands. Here in Kenya it is approaching 5 in the morning and been up the whole night. Got CNN, BBC, Sky and Al-Jazeera but no MSNBC so thanks everybody with the fast MSNBC projections.

And Hagan wins! Now it seems he wont get much damages in his law suit.

And N Carolina, same

And N Carolina, same site:

CNN reports that Barack Obama currently leads John McCain 52% to 47%, with 19% precincts reporting (08:52 PM EST)

http://www.mahalo.com/North_Carolina_Election_Results

Rahm Emanuel and on a different note...

will be offered the Chief of Staff position providing Barack Obama wins the election.  But would he take it?

 

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/11/04/1639284.aspx

Va.

Now yell at me, but in Va., according to the site, has this:

http://www.mahalo.com/Virginia_Election_Results9:51 PM EST: McCain leads 52% to 47% (50% of precincts reporting)

There's no way for me to tell how much veracity to put to this, or whether enough of the right precincts are reporting, if there is some accuracy, to tell if it means anything yet).

Forida, according to the site:

9:04 PM EST: CNN reports Obama leads Florida with 52% over 48% (48% of precincts reporting)

http://www.mahalo.com/Florida_Election_Results

 

Seems the site is getting a good feed, since CNN just reported the above Fla. results after they were up on the site.

Here's the link to the whole state break out from the site, if it's of use to folks:

http://www.chrisfinke.com/2008/11/04/the-easiest-way-to-find-election-re...

AZ!!!!

Too close to call!!!! MSNBC

MI for Obama. Sweet...

amk

was GA called too early?

I've read this on a few sites now, that a lot of people believe that MSNBC/NBC called it prematurely. Does the percent reported so far include the outrageous early voting? Also, the major democratic counties are not in yet. after all, networks have been wrong before. Evidence: MO democratic primary.

Al, CNN ON FL - with 50% counted, Obama 52-48.

Any thoughts ? Any updates ?

amk

Florida

I am truly amazed.  I have worked so hard down here in Florida, I've said it was in play for a long while and it appears we are poised to take it.  Fox called Ohio for Obama but then took it back...How sweet this is...Can't stop crying.

John Bolton (ugghh) bloviating on BBC - JM wasn't

aggressive enough, didn't point out how radical Obama was.

WTF ?

amk

@amk

Mike Murphy on MSNBC (R strategist...pretty straight up guy) said he is very concerned about FL.  McCain is apparently underperfoming in Central FL (thanks Steven Hunt!) as well as some up north.  He thinks it's looking very good for Obama.

Also just heard from Harold Ford that 0% has reported out of Arlington in NoVa.

VA

yes 10% reporting from Arlington and only 23% reporting from Fairfax county which is the most populous NoVA county - 250,000 voters there

KD

Thanks Tara for that good news. As I was saying, I would love

if FL turns out to be the one puts Obama over the top.

amk

Ohio!

We're almost there!

OHIO!!!!!!

called for Obama on MSNBC

 

I think that pretty much clinches it. Everything else is pretty much icing!

NBC just called Ohio -

NBC just called Ohio - that's it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

KD

OHIO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Obama in Ohio MSNBC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MSNBC just called OH for Obama!!!!!!!!!!

OMG - it's over, it's really over.  We did it!  We did it!

OHIO

Ohio just called on MSNBC for Obama! Its on!

I couldn't be more estatic that Ohio is going to Obama n/t

WOOO HOOOO

Cracking open the wine now!

You are all awesome! :-)

Thank you for all of your comments - funny, insightful, heartfelt...through the primary and general election. You kept me focused and sane!

GOHIO!!! Yes, we can.

amk

@amk

I saw that too. And BBC had to cut off their corresspondence who was questioning his reasoning as he was turning nasty. Just how did he expect McCain to win with only the Republican base and no independents? Fortunately his likes have been advising McCaine.

AMK

Not "yes we can" but "YES WE DID!"

Ratings game now

CNN is on now making it look like most of N. Carolina is not in. But the feed off the site shows this:

CNN reports that Barack Obama currently leads John McCain 51% to 48%, with 44% precincts reporting.

http://www.mahalo.com/North_Carolina_Election_Results

Talk about hyping ratings.

Fox News needs some

Fox News needs some Zoloft.  So who's gonna bet that Juan Williams cries like a little B&^% when Obama is called the winner.

John, I stand corrected. YES, WE DID!!!

amk

The panel over at FOX NEWS

The panel over at FOX NEWS is currently eating each other alive.

I love it...

Guys, you gotta to pop over to dKos FP. Funny election

outcome picture. Precious...

amk

CNN calls NM for Obama. LA for JM.

amk

new thread up guys

check it out

KD

NPR just called it for Virginia and Obama

yessss!!!!!!!!

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