Sleeper State?

:)

BondiBeachViews

 Or the cherry on top! Go Georgia, Catherine Cain told us this months ago! I have faith Georgia will be very close with O on top. Go Georgia. Just finished my 200 calls to Ohio, when I left there were at 25 people there making calls. We ran out of lists and were waiting for more. Oh, I can not wait til tomorrow night ;))

For many, many reasons.

Check out my diary over at Kos for a rundown of why I feel like we may see a big blue sky come tomorrow night.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/24/171818/35/470/641259

Quicklook: Ron Paul, Bob Barr, Late Registration, Early Voting, and EVEN MORE!

More  smiles & icing covered grins ;)  And our newest Democratic Senator will be.....oh, my...gotta get our popcorn ready!

Al, are Field hands making bets on getting to 60?  I was surprised to read in a previous thread of many NH Obama votes not going to Shaheen?

Try Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. No chance? Not by the polls. But a landslide is a landslide and the hidden story may be that there was no sweat after all.

PS: thanks for "I Am Voting for Obama" -- it needs the Mormon Tab. Choir but I doubt they would sing it.

Suzy,

That shouldn't be too surprising, since right now Obama is outperforming Shaheen in the polls (which isn't something I would've bet on a month ago, lol)

Al,

I would guess that if Obama pulls off an upset, it will be because African American did increase and that Obama will actually over-perform among white voters in Georgia, the same way he did in the North Carolina primary against Hillary Clinton (remember that pollsters like SUSA were actually quite accurate in guessing African American turnout in North Carolina, and what was really behind Obama outperforming his polls was him doing better among white voters than he was expected to do).

Hi Suzy - I'm the one who wrote about Jeanne Shaheen. It truly was just from what we saw on the ground yesterday. Democrats were saying they were disappointed in her as a Governor and that they were not planning on voting for her. We pointed out that it will be much easier for Obama meet his campaign pledges with people like Shaheen in place. A couple heard us but virtually all of our contacts said it wasn't enough for them. They'd be voting for Obama and their Congressman Paul Hodes but not straight Dem. Maybe they'll change their minds and certainly they're only a tiny representation of the entire state so I have no idea how it will go but from what we saw she has an uphill battle on her hands. I know it's been very close (from the coordinator calls) but don't know what the numbers are. I was just sharing the experiences we had yesterday.

to JM and bingo, JM wins. How long the media will continue the charade of "it's a close race" ?

amk

I live in the southern-most tip of South Carolina, about 25 minutes from Savannah, GA so I get all the GA advertising block (if I see another Saxby Chambliss advertisement trashing Jim Martin I am going to scream, I hope Martin pulls it out). I could definitely see Georgia being a sleeper, Al, so I think you're on the money there. However, I don't see it being a tipping point. I feel like North Carolina will turn before Georgia, and this seems to be the case in early voting in both states going fairly well for the Democrats. I read today that early voting in NC is 41% of 2004 votes total. What fantastic turnout. Do you believe that southern GA is the counties to watch, then? Or do you think we should also be looking at the counties around Atlanta for some indication. Here in SC, I am currently at a clinic right next to the Jasper county election board. We don't have 'early voting' per say, but you can absentee vote pretty easily and the past week or so, the line has been incredible with tons of cars parked all of the lawn here. The line is heavily African American, but I don't find that particularly surprising. My precinct will be at Sun City, which is a 65+ retirement community made by the same developer as the one in Arizona. So, I'll let you know tomorrow night how the turnout was among the elderly as well. If AA turnout is fantastic in SC we could be a sleeper ourselves, but I don't think it's that likely. We'll see, I hope that we can at least close the gap here.

Al, I love this phrase for what needs to happen next.

Last night at the field office in Eugene I asked some folks there what happens next week?  Looks like Wednesday morning they clear out.  When I talked to a local Democratic Party guy about keeping this structure in place (what happens to the email lists? etc.)he said they go to the local Dem. Party for the next race.  What about lateral organizing, I asked?  How do we contact each other (and it's been jam packed there, as you might imagine) when we want Obama to know how we feel about, say, nuclear power plants.  He suggested going to the Obama web site.  Is that going to stick around? What's your thinking on this, folks?  What's the most effective thing to do to keep these networks activated for all the next steps to come?  I mean laterally, not waiting for the Dem Part on high to decide what we should care about. I'm asking this now in the midst of the cyclone because the next two days are probably the window before the storefront offices pack up their furniture and the leases expire.

Of course there are organizations already in place like Move On andthe thousands of groups working for change, like the Eugene Permaculture Guild to cite a local example, but I'm curious about specifically what someone on the ground can do to keep the Obama organization mobilized from the ground up...or does it just take passing out a sign-up sheet at the field office?

I feel a bit naive asking this, but...

ideas?

Al: I too would like to hear your advice on next steps for the reasons cited in a DailyKos post this morning:

After Tuesday, we'll need to have Obama's back against all who would wreck his administration and simultaneously to hold his feet to the fire.

I'm particularly interested in mobilizing with other contacts on a "cap and dividend" climate policy that can pay big dividends re: energy and the economy. 

This certainly supports the possibility of a GA upset:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/11/georgia-results.html

McCain 50

Obama 48

Barr 2

My husband and I voted over three weeks ago in Douglas County, Georgia, just west of the city of Atlanta.  At that time, we waited about 45 minutes to vote.  The overwhelming majority of people in line were African-Americans, including my husband and myself.  Our four-year old daughter was with us; it was a great moment.   My husband never meets a stranger, so he was talking up Obama while we were standing in line to everyone he could talk to.  He does it even now.  Everywhere we go, the grocery store, the movies, the mall, whereever, he's talking up Obama.  He doesn't care who it is he's talking to.

I've lived here in Georgia since 1991.  As a Black woman, it's been frustrating seeing the politics here.  While I like it here, I wonder why.  It would be a glorious thing to see Obama win Georgia.  OMG!!!  If the lines are any indication, and if people don't get intimidated tomorrow by the anticipated ridiculous lines and trickery, I think Georgia might just pull it off for Obama.

I'm not so sure about Jim Martin.  He'll make it close.  I just don't know what will happen if there's a runoff.

I am down here in Vigo County, IN working out of the Obama headquarters on Poplar and 4th Street. We are in charge of canvassing the whole city.

We did excellent yesterday and Saturday, but today we are EMPTY. This is the nation's leading bellweather county and we have almost no one out today. If we win IN, we win the election.

I know you are in touch with a lot of people. If you get a chance, maybe you could mention this to people. Any volunteers looking to drive in to IN, please send them our way.

Things seem to be going well here, and we hope that if we can keep up the numbers we can hold the line in western IN.

Thanks!

There's a great video of Obama in Indiana this summer talking out loud that he will NEED US if he wins. He mentioned totally revamping the Whitehouse website, making it interactive, more like MyBO and where he will post his daily schedule, bills he is sending to the Hill and list of Reps/Senators we need to contact to help push his agenda through on a specific bill.

There's a great moment when Michelle buts in and says see he's the idealist in the family and her eyes are shining with pride and the audience, it's in a family home, are just rapt as this RADICAL concept he's selling of PARTICIPATORY DEMOCRACY.

I fully expect Obama to hire Chris to redo the WH website with alot of interactive tools and yes I expect our President to EMAIL US (not everyday like now) but when he NEEDS his ARMY to get involved within the first 100 days.

Do ND or MT count as sleeper states?  I think that either of those are more likely than Georgia.  I think that Obama will get close in GA but lose in the end.  Sort of the flip side of what I think will happen in NC . . . 

@cdm from the last thread...

cdm asked if "African-American" is generic and/or is Black OK or not?

AA is pretty much generic, and Black is OK with most people.

Technically, an "African-American" is someone with African roots who is an American citizen...Teresa Hines Kerry, who was born in Mozambique (I think), is always proud to say she is an "African-American", because she is!

So is, what is that popular actress' name from South Africa?  Geez, since I had a birthday last week...she was an Oscar a couple of years ago...anyway, she's African-American, too, if she has American citizenship...

But mostly, the term applies to Black people of African descent who are also American citizens.  Some people prefer to be called "Black" because they dont' like hyphenated *labels*...

But Barack, like my daughters whose father is from Somalia, is definitely *African-American*, born in America to an American mother and an African father...tee-hee!

Hope that helps!

Getting ready for my 3 - 6 p.m. driving people to the polls shift; since the Detroit City Clerk has opened absentee voting for everyone!

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

I don't live anywhere near Indiana but I recommend you draft your message up into a quick diary for dKos - someone did one yesterday sking for help in northern St. Louis and got a ton of responses.

Obviously I'm sure a lot of people are back at work today too

KD

as Al suggests you should probably get the emails of folks you've been working with right now and then organize maybe some type of monthly meeting - put it on their calendars now.  I know back in December 2006 a small group of people were having monthly meetings in a local coffee shop in Alexandria VA as a grassroots Obama organization - this was way before there was any sign of an official Obama presence anywhere in the state (they didn't arrive until the first week of Feb 08).  no reason why it can't go back to teh grassroots after tues.

KD

This is it.  This essay expresses my core reason for supporting Obama - it has been since November 2007, and Sullivan has articulated it so well here.  It was his essay this time last year ("Goodbye to All that") that clued me into the possibilities of an Obama presidency and now he's done it again.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/11/barack-obam...

KD

Wishing you all Good Luck Tomorrow, long lines of voters but few problems.

A job well done.  Will miss you guys.

signed

Ladybug, Canada

Hi Kris,

Actually, the NC early voting was something like 41% of registered voters.  It was actually 75% of the total vote from 2004!

Over 2.6 million votes were cast early in NC.  About 3.5 million total in 2004.

OK, I'm sitting here in my van waiting for my next set of riders to take back from the polls. (Groups of people are at various community centers--all organized by the campaign!) I have my laptop and connect card with me as always.

My 27-year-old son called; a friend of his who will be voting for the very first time tomorrow isn't sure of his polling place. Could I please check it online for him? The friend gets on the phone and gives me his address, I go to BO.com and get his polling place. He is so excited, and so is my son!  He's making sure ALL of his friends vote tomorrow!

Woo-hoo!

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

I apologize for wishing you long lines tomorrow.  I wasn't thinking about how that may stop some people from voting but was thinking about the great  turn out of the vote that would be and assumed that a large turn out would favor Obama more than McCain.

http://www.voteforchange.com/

and phonebanking with my son (a no school day for him) in Amherst tomorrow.

That video from Virginia gave me goosebumps.  How amazing to have so many hundreds of thousands of people in every state get involved in the political process.  That must scare the hell out of the fear mongers.

I'm so impressed by the reports from Field Hands all over. You guys rock.

I am so looking forward to watching Fox News to see all the dejected pundits scrambling. Also CNN - which does not have the best political news team nor is as impartial as they'd have of believe. 

Al - you just might want to move back to the US afterall!

Thanks a lot Pam. Glad to hear "black" is ok (sounds neutral to me, so I tend to use it).

And thanks for your other posts too. I don't write often -not in the US, not so much to say- but I read Al and Pam and ALL of you compulsively since February. The Field is a such a cozy and interesting place to be. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and your experiences, it's been inspiring and I'm grateful for the pleasure of traveling these months with you. The Field (with 538) has been a key element in making this election so exciting, so interesting, so addictive. I've learnt a lot from it. And I've understood there's a great side to the USA that I had no idea about.

Today is my birthday, but I'm holding the celebration for tomorrow. I took holiday on Wednesday so I'll be up all night refreshing the fields' page (among others :-)). Very special thanks to all those who have contributed with money, time, and enthusiasm to the Obama campaign. And tons of energy for the last efforts on GOTV tomorrow! Proud of you!

I have big hopes that tomorrow night will be a great night :-)

Crush, baby, crush!

just died...

the voteforchange website is the one I use...

Now we're not just voting for Barack, but we're voting for "Toot"...

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

I've got 10 more minutes before my next run...

I was reading on HuffPo how the Repubs were suing because O took the campaign plane to Hawai'i to visit his Toot...I hope they feel like sh*t now...I doubt it, tho'...they have NO heart...

They forget that it was OUR money that paid for that plane, and WE wanted him to visit Granny...

Here comes the first of my people...gotta go...

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

I heard about Toot and came here first. I wish she could have held out 36 more hours, but I can't even imagine how tired she must have been. God bless her and keep her. She did such a good job of raising her "Barry".  She and her daughter Ann were such strong women. Of course Barack was drawn to Michelle and is such a good dad to his girls. 

I can't believe that BS lawsuit over using the plane to go see his deathly ill grandmother.

Happy Birthday cdm and happy continuing birthday to you, Pam : ) I love hearing your stories. I am going to be poll watching from inside a polling place here in Atlanta from 6:30 am onwards tomorrow. I'll be in Fulton County, near where I live. Each party can have 2 poll watchers at each precinct. I am so excited! and also very curious to see if the republicans will be represented. Either way, I'm ready! They're probably more likely to be where I am, in a majority black area, than in the whiter Atlanta suburbs. I'm keeping "no drama obama" as my mantra. We are supposed to keep our cool (and keep in contact with the legal HQ) above all else.

I am thrilled with the early voting turnout and hope to see long lines of committed supporters tomorrow. I'll send twitter updates from the poll if I can. misspope is my twitter name.

Don't know if anybody said it yet, but that actress is Charlize Theron. She is from South Africa and speaks Afrikaaner as her 1st language. Dave Matthews is also from South Africa. Thus, they are both African-Americans.

Si somos americanos, seremos buenos vecinos;
compartiremos el trigo,seremos buenos hermanos -- canción de Rolando Alarcón

Todos somos americanos.-- Barack Obama

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/flyontnewall/2008/11/just-pe...

I've mentioned Fly on the Wall before here.  He posts at TPM and does some excellent work.  He has done an analysis of GA today and is hopeful.