Text Messages and Tea Leaves

I like the reading of tealeaves you've just done.... i'm betting BO is going for a completely unexpected but exciting choice. Everyone seems to like Tim Kaine.... he'd be a good choice too... but hopefully he goes for Schweitzer.

And although I'm still pulling for Sebelius, I tend to agree that her being highlighted as the Convention co-chair makes it unlikely that she is the one.

I think the idea to broadcast the news to Obama supporters first is genius. I'll have my cell phone ring turned way UP the next few days!

Which night would the keynote speaker traditionally speak? And the VP nominee? This is my first time paying much attention to the convention (listened to Obama's speech in '04 as I was a fan, being from Illinois), so I have no idea how these things traditionally play out. Would this be done at INVESCO? Or would that take away from Barack's night to shine. Just wondering which day we can be expecting this news.

I like this idea of letting people know by text. I really hope Sebellius is not the VP pick. She would be a bad choice that would create backlash. That's a headache we don't need in this upcoming election. If they are going for a complete change ticket, Mark Warner would be the way to go in my view. He has great chemistry with Barack plus he would make Virginia a lock for the democrats and get us that much closer to 270 Electoral votes. If they are going for experience any of the picks mentioned would be fine whether it be Biden, Clinton or Bayh though I think we can rule out Clinton as she is set to speak on tuesday. If it's Obama/Biden, that would be a great mix of excitement, change and experience. If it's Obama/Bayh, even though Bayh is a bit dull, he is a moderate that appeals to independents and if the campaign has internal polling showing  that adding Bayh to the ticket  makes Indiana blue in November I have no problem with having him as VP.

For the second time this week someone is calling Dodd an "exciting" veep pick--when did Dodd become exciting? I must pass on the Wait Wait observation that "Obama-Dodd" works nicely in the muppets "Menahmenah" song. (For me this is a plus....) Quite likely Sebelius (with whom I'd be very happy) but I'll hold out a little hope that Schweitzer's lack of rumors means it could be him, too. I'll speculate that making Kathleen more and more visible to Dems might blunt the "a woman? then why not Hillary?" reaction by making it clear that all Democratic women are not actually interchangeable.

I think that the VP decision has been made. Those who did not make the cut (I am guessing, like Sebelius) have been told. Whoever it is, the Obama campaign is confident that the pick will generate enough excitement and has ability to give a speech so as not be overshadowed by Bill Clinton. They would not have put Bill Clinton on Wednesday night if that wasn't the case.

It will be nice if some prominent, disillusioned  Republican speaks at the convention. Will Chuck Hagel do it?

"The headline prime-time speaker on Wednesday August 27th will be Barack Obama’s Vice Presidential nominee."

I wonder if it was Obama's decision or her decision.  Sen. Brownback is up for re-election in 2010 and Sebelius, who is term limited, has a great shot at it.  She's probably the only Democrat in the state who can win that seat.  Then again, would someone really want to be a Senator instead of a Vice President?

Unless McCain announces his VP tomorrow morning, this little stunt is going to own the news cycle for the next three days.  After that it will be Phelps and USA Basketball, and then it will go back to Obama when he makes his pick.  McCain will pretty much have to exhume Reagan to get anything above the B section or on to any bloggers page.

These Obama guys have just topped any season of Survior or American Idol.

With this build up, the only three people that could live up to the hype would be Gore, Oprah or ....  an exhumed JFK....

I think it would be nice if they leaked it to the Field! I have no doubt that the Obama campaign has been paying attention to your fine analysis.

 LOL, Orlando, I giggled at both you and Al!

This mass email is another part of "real change, you can believe in".

Respect, Empower & Include! Two people, who I admire greatly, said those words to me this year- it is my new mantra- hopefully it catches on in this nation, fieldhands, let's do our part! I am doing my part locally for those words to resonate. Democracy is on a comeback!

Al, do you think that making Sebelius the convention co-chair could be another fake to throw the media off the right trail? As unlikely as it may seem, it's certainly working to make people think she's not the VP. 

Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I really, really hope it's her or Schweitzer.

I love the fact that Obama's ship is so tight that the LACK of rumors about somone makes us think that person is MORE likely.

 

I was thinking about Warner today...he is 54 and would be a good candidate to run in '16 (see my optimisim embedded in there?).  This of course, would depend on who the VP was.  Anyway, I guess my point is that he is young and can wait and I just don't see how the Dems giving up the automatic Senate seat pickup would be a good thing.  In theory, Kaine gives you VA as well so why give up the Senate seat?

 

Still loving Schweitzer though.

 

Orlando, I see you've got your kids involved in Obama art as well.  I draw the Obama slogan with the horizon and have my kids color it in. : ))

And you should hear my daughter repeat the words of:

"and if one voice can change a room..."

Of course, given that we are a Spanish speaking household, she says it in Spanish!

"y si una voz puede cambiar..."

This is was one of the things that made me support Obama - his ability to inspire young people.

Right now I'm betting on Sebelius. The silence and lack of leaks from her camp is a good indicator for me.

What I realized when I got the email this AM was that Obama is setting up a new communication vehicle for the general election in which they can

(1) Dispel negative McCain remarks faster than getting ads up in all markets

(2) Generate blog fodder faster than having the blogs react to the news wires,

but more imiportantly, this is the test run to work out the kinks for how he's going to govern.

This, to me, was the most exciting part of what I read this morning. It was a eureka. I saw -- shit!! -- this is how he's going to govern. This is how he's going to get the electorate to call their local congressmen and state their choices. A natural extension of the grassroots movement using the technology in most people's hands. By the time it comes to fruition, it will also include your congressman's or senator's phone number to respond. With a 1, 2, or 3 selection on your cell phone to respond to an issue.

Brilliant.

Usually the keynote speaker is not the VP if the VP is chosen before the convention, which is usually the case. If the VP is chosen during the convention, then the keynote speaker is often someone new who is being auditioned for VP.

What may be a factor is that Hillary is speaking Tuesday night, the roll call vote is Wednesday, and the VP speaks Wednesday night. Do you pick your VP after the roll call, to keep any dissatisfied delegtes from a backlash, Hilary-related or other? I don't see any realistic scenario where any VP pick before the convention affects the roll call, but this may be being mulled over.

There's no question that Sebelius' national stature has been improved by the VP speculation, as Edwards' was when Gore shortlisted him in 2000.

I'm betting on either Warner or Kaine.  Both from Virginia, a key state.  And both middle-aged white guys, which will help to allay the fears among conservative Democrats that we can't have an African-American and a woman in the White House at the same time.  That's just too much racial and gender progress for this country to handle in one gulp.

A report in the last 10 days noted that the majority of the 50,000,000 voting Millennials do not use email. They only use text messaging, or SMS, and things like Twitter.

So this move by Team Obama to a text-messaging dialogue is smart.

Back in 1999, one of my favorite news sources (because I was anti what we were doing to the Serbs, and did not buy the US Kosovo War Kool-aid one bit) was The eXile in Russia. Mark Ames and Matt Taibbi were co-owners or publishers and editors.

Matt Taibbi returned to the US. Mark Ames is now the editor of The eXiled, past tense because Russia has banned it for its criticism of Putin.

Nevertheless, Mark Ames has an interesting piece on the Russia/Georgia/Ossetia crisis, and decimates McCain for his reaction. As usual, the young unworldly limited-perspective Huffington Post editors get it completely wrong.

Read it here:

http://exiledonline.com/georgia-gets-its-war-onmccain-gets-his-brain-pla...

Indeed, using cutting edge technologies to by-pass the corporate media and the US oligarchy's propaganda machine will be crucial at a grass-roots level.

If real progress is going to be made in so many areas, then that means that the people striving for significant change have to make an end-run around the brain-washing, disinformation apparatus.

Am I being quixotic in my thinking here?  Perhaps.  I am just hoping that this is a mere taste of things to come.   Certainly the passive consumerist model of autocracy needs to be smashed.

My natural inclinations as a farmer is to bring back horse-whips and pitch-folks--but I try to be open minded.

 

 

http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=13285

The money quote

The United States is denouncing the Russians as aggressors in the UN Security Council and accusing the Kremlin of engaging in a policy of "regime change," in Ambassador Khalilzad's phrase. The Russian response: "regime change" is "an American invention," but, hey, in Saakashvili's case, it might not be such a bad idea.

amk

With Conglomerate Media acting esstentially as Panama John McSame's ad agency, Obama has had to be creative in how he manages media cycles, and this whole VP speculation game has been done very well so far.

Now of course, they'd better deliver the goods with the eventual choice, and with how much hype they've been building, I'm starting to think it'll be a big name and perhaps a surprise. If it was a unknown, you'd think they would've announced by now so people can start getting familiar with this person, since one of Obama's hurdles is that he's "unknown" to much of the electorate still.

Howard Dean would be the best. Can you imagine the excitement this would generate with the base, especially at the Convention? The DLC wing of the Party (many Hillary backers) wouldn't be thrilled, but we needed to clear them out years ago anyway. With all the new people getting excited about being Democrats, what a great way to further fuel the momentum as we rebuild the Party from the ground up.

Dean, with his '04 campaign and 50 State Strategy, is credited as jump starting these new models of fundraising and organizing that Obama is using today. Obama has explicitly mentioned how much he respects what Dean has done and they seem to really like each other. We wouldn't lose any Senators or "Red State" governors, and with the success of his ideas, it's likely we could elect a like-minded person to replace Dean as DNC Chair.

We'll know soon enough!

 

 

My first reaction is it will come today. The Obama campaign does not play games.About to is in motion.

My thinking went this way. This decision will set McCain hopping mad because it will preempt all the time between the announcement and the Convention.

McCain will attack the process which is brilliant -- a monster fundraising move. And he will attack the nominee as another inexperienced lightweight.

Let him try that on Brian Schweitzerr.

I can't wait.

I believe the attention to Kaine was because he is a good friend and Barack told him NO gently and then enlisted him to help. That is the nly explanation for Kaine violating the protocol by talking to the media. I think Michelle went to hold his hand.

I also think Barack believes he can win Indiana without Bayh in tow and that Bayh would knock out the change prop big time.

There is an underlying tension here between the Clintonite politics of Rubinomics and the Obama reaching out for something a trifle more just.

Schweitzer is a prosperity-oriented Democrat who is right up Barack's alley and who can also deflect and destroy anything McCain throws -- an attack dog with a smile and watch for the dog he owns in the campaign.

Why do I feel so certain? Because noting Barack had done including FISA has really crushed me and because every time I get to feeling the bubble may burst, the Campaign acts in a way that pleases me.

I can survive with another pick, but I will need a very good reason.

My 1 year old loves to say "Obama" and frequently in conversations with strangers will interject a random "Obama" as if urging them to vote. When you ask him where he will live, he says "White house!"

Sebelius and Schweizer are still my top 2 picks. But I have confidence in the campaign so whoever they pick, I'll be fine. Just no  John Edwards or Hillary Clinton.

Help me out someone. When does the keynote speaker usually speak? Tuesday or Wednesday?

For all the Chicken Littles,

Obama hits back hard!  Witness "Embrace":

http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1185304443/bctid1721792723

 

 Does anyone here believe there is a chance in hell, McShame will pick Leiberman as his Veep?

It seems hard to imagine, he was the Veep candidate for the Dems only 8 years ago.

I think that the Clinton's have been brought in to give speeches in support that will clearly be vetted by the team and both of them speaking and Chelsea introducing her mother coupled with having Sebelius Wednesday Night accept the nomination after Clinton has just given a speech and HRC has spent Tuesday reminding Women how far they've come.

It would be a way to show how path breaking HRC was and pull Sebelius up as a woman with a great story who will make a historic ticket.

It also pulls the fangs from all those womens protests who will also have a female VP.

I think that Sebelius is a candidate to watch IMO. I think they've put her out there and no one has brought serious objections; and the Obama folks are risk averse. She's a strong governor with a great economic story to tell. And Obama has two people in Biden and Kerry fighting for Sec. of State who will testify to his security chops. Picking a governor who has turned around an economy without raising taxes is FAR more important.

Maybe I'm being wishful because I'm such a huge Katherine Sebelius fan! But I hope she is the VP. I'll be waiting for that text messgae, lol.

Does anyone here believe there is a chance in hell, McShame will pick Leiberman as his Veep?

If the decision were McCain's alone, it would be a strong possibility. But I think the Rovian Rugrats who are now running McSame's campaign would nix the idea since Lieberman would send the pro-life fundie base running for the hills despite his recent sucking up to creeps like Hagee. 

It would be wonderful if it actually happened, though. Lieberman wouldn't even carry CT.

An interesting aspect of this method of releasing the VP news this way is that it forces the press to join the Obama campaign.  In order for them to get the news the same time as us they will have to sign up and become members of myBO, thus they will be on the receiving end of all the campaign-generated content - i.e., videos like the fact-checking one repudiating McCain's lying tax ad, requests for donations, campaign and volunteer events local to their zip code.  This will have to have some sort of subliminial effect I would think.

KD

Make sure to review the entry above for updates added on Monday morning.

Obama rolled out his McCain-is-a-celebrity-too ad.  I had no idea that being called a celebrity was such a negative thing. 

 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/11/obamas-celeb-ad-adopts-mc_n_118116.html

 

OK, so I just saw this schedule of topics for each night. Take a look:

Monday, August 25 -- One Nation
Monday’s headline prime-time speaker will be Michelle Obama.

Tuesday, August 26 – Renewing America’s Promise
Senator Hillary Clinton will be the headline prime-time speaker on Tuesday night.

Wednesday, August 27 -- Securing America’s Future
The Vice Presidential Acceptance Speech

The headline prime-time speaker on Wednesday will be Barack Obama’s Vice Presidential Nominee.

Thursday, August 28 – Change You Can Believe In
Barack Obama’s Acceptance Speech

If Wednesday's theme is "Securing America's Future", is that focusing on National Security or more on economy and the creation of jobs? This would help in guessing the VP choice, right?

Thanks for all the updates Al - I love how this build-up to the convention is being played.  I'm planning to use the Neighbor-to-Neighbor tool this weekend to talk to all my neighbors to make sure they are tuning in convention week.  I think if you really open your ears and mind and listen that week you would have to come away convinced of the message.  It is going to be key to get as many people as possible listening and watching.  I wonder if the campaign will use some of the Olympic ad buy to advertise the convention?

As I was washing my breakfast dishes, I was thinking again about what you mention here - that Obama is looking for a VP who will help him get stuff done.  I've also heard him talk before about wanting someone who might complement his own skillset.  Now, Obama wants to get three big things done in his administration:

1) get out of Iraq;

2) move towards energy independence;

3) fix healthcare.

I think he is confident in his own abilities to achieve No. 1; and I think he is hoping to tap Hillary in the Senate to achieve No. 3.  So No. 2 is where he might be looking for some help from his VP - so again this is looking to Richardson, Schweitzer, Gore.  I think the energy issue as it relates to "new jobs" will be really key - and I could see this playing really well in Michigan for example (btw Al, do you think you could do a post on Michigan - I'm kind of worried about that state - Nate Silver has suggested that if McCain wins there, he will probably win the election, but I don't have a real feel for how  Obama is doing there, particularly because we did not see how he would perform in a primary election there).  If autoworkers can be convinced of Obama's promise, I think that could be key - and what better way than what is implied in the new "Hands" video (i.e., a riff on the theme - American used to be a country where we made stuff, created goods, etc. - we need to be the innovative country once again, a leader in this new industry).

PS - I'm hoping that Blue Man in a Red State is on a particular someone's beach reading list this week.

KD

Just saw Olivia's post about Wednesday night's theme - "Securing America's Future" - that has to be energy and jobs, doesn't it?

KD

Karen,

"Securing America's Future" is going to be a salute to the vets apparently. Which actually makes me think it may also be a nod to the VP or if the VP isn't a VET having a former president speak is a good thing too.

First Read seems to play up the Vet angle through....

McCain just issued his statement on the Russia/Georgia conflict, and holy shit it scares me to think he has a chance at the presidency.

http://thepage.time.com/mccain-statement-on-russian-georgian-conflict/

He's talking as if Russia is brutally invading in order to take over Georgia, and completely disregards South Ossetia's near autonomous status and its people's allegiance to Russia and Russia commitment to defend it. He wants to get NATO forces directly involved, which, among other things he says there, is making my head spin.

Painting Georgia as some democratic safe-haven of freedom and Russia as the Big Red Scare is making me Cold.

Oh - and the rollout of the VP before the convention definitely suggests it is someone who is less of a known quantity.  Seems like they want to give the media lots of time to introduce the pick, and to mitigate against the response of "Who?" by the much of the general population if they left the announcement to Wed night of the convention.

KD

Brilliant. I am in awe of this campaign. We can avoid the MSM and the 'talking heads' who give us this "wisdom"(SNARK!)

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/11/9502/01611/633/565846

Still don't understand why she's allowed to speak on NPR - the only radio station I still listen to - and is considered somone who has anything of value to say.  Tho' I do appreciate the great laugh one recent Sunday morning when she proudly 'announced' her own pride in never reading 'any of those online blogs.'

Thank Dog for the Field and the Field Hands - can't wait to hear from you all in Denver.

Excellent page of updates.

While a little off topic, I have a question for you Al.  I sent you a Facebook invite to the event, but I've been trying to organize college age voters.  While they are considered a prime demographic for Obama, I have not received any urges from the Obama campaign to remember to register for an absentee ballot before I leave for school in a few weeks.

I've been trying to remind friends locally through social networking (invite your college friends here) but I'm wondering if there is a reason this is never an effort made?

Is there a better way to get the word around the next few weeks besides Facebook?

Thanks, Al.

 

Marc Ambinder says early next week, we should be getting the news and he usually has great contacts within the campaign (remember John Edwards plane trip to Michigan)

 

I hope its Sebelius.....I agree with Rhoda....Hillary Clinton speaking on Tuesday to remind her supporters about "the glass ceiling" will help counteract her disappointed supporters.....

 

But I don't know, I am so excited......

Al, now you have me thinking it's Kaine.....

If it is Sebelius....Barack will be the only man speaking in primetime at the convention

While Democrats are preparing for all the important moment: to introduce Barack as the nominee, some groups are trying to disrupt it.

From their site, "Kick off a week of resistance to the corrupt two-party system and capitalism with a rowdy street party that will reclaim public space from the police state occupation of Denver!"

Wow!

I doubt he'll ask anyone who voted for the Authorization for Use of Military Force in Iraq.

That rules out Bayh, Biden, Clinton, Daschle, Dodd, Edwards, Hagel and Kerry.

While that vote is not very relevant in resolving the present situation, these people failed the commander-in-chief test by making the wrong decision on a critical moment.

Travis - I wouldn't go so far to presume that because one person (you) hasn't received a communication from the presidential campaign regarding registering in your own state, that doesn't mean that there's no effort. It would probably depend on:

A. Are you already registered to vote? They're working off very up-to-date voter rolls cross-referenced with state-of-the-art demographic and consumer information on each of the 56 million unregistered but eligible to vote citizens. If you're already registered, they have that info and wouldn't be contacting you to register.

B. Is your home town in a swing state? The efforts are obviously concentrated in the 18 or 20 states considered to be up for grabs. If you attend university in a swing state, but live in a safe "blue" or "red" state, they'll be urging you, conversely, to register from your college residence. Once school starts in a couple of weeks, the effort will be intensive on campuses, particularly those in swing states.

I try to never extrapolate a general truth from a solitary example. If you attend college in a "safe" state, don't be surprised if once you get back to school you'll be greeted by organizers with all the forms and paperwork to register you at home, rather than at school (that is, if you're not already registered to vote). The Obama campaign didn't ignore the campuses in the primaries and it's impossible to imagine it would suddenly ignore them in the general.

Re: Suzy Shure,

Cokie Roberts is a communications relic. Her pronouncements on the internet and use thereof in 1997-9 were profoundly arrogant, smarmy, and wrong. She consistently fails to read the temper of the times, just like her congressman father who voted against desegregation and the Civil Rights Act in 1964.

What NPR show was she on, altho' she was an NPR regular for years. Her daughter's? (Daughter: Rebecca Roberts.)

What I like about the plan to text or email the VP announcement is that it's a subtle message that the campaign should be the primary source of news, rather than the media. It encourages people to look for information straight from the horse's mouth, rather than other outlets. Very smart.

CB, the keynote speaker speaks the first night of the convention.

Some over at dkos and tpm are saying that Obama waited to late to hit back at McCain, but I don't agree

This particular meme is not taking into account a few important elements of this election cycle.  First of all if Obama had responded to the initial attack ads, then for the past what 2 weeks, all we would have gotten is back to back attack ads which may boost our morale, but would be a disaster for Obama.  Let's be honest, what makes Obama a "risky" choice to some people is that people claim to not know enough about Obama.  Obama unlike Cliton and McCain is a relatively unknown quanitity to some people.  If he had spent the past 2 weeks countering attack ads, what would the people who consider him unknown have discoverd about Obama.  The answer: NOTHING!  Unlike McCain or Clinton Obama does not have the luxury of just running a counterattack campaign.  He has to let those American who are looking for a reason to vote for him other than the fact that yes, we Libs/Dems bloggers like him.   The way to do that is not by running a negative non-substantive campaign, one in which all Obama does is counterpunch negative ads all the time.  While McCain has been running negative ads, what has Obama been doing, talking about the economy, energy, jobs, etc.  He's been giving those voters who wants other reasons to vote for him, exactly what may sway them...policy.

I really think that we sometimes forget that Obama and McCain are trying to reach different audiences.  McCain wants to reach the people who are looking for reasons NOT TO VOTE FOR BARACK H OBAMA.
Barack wants to reach the people who are looking for reasons to VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA, or even AGAINST GWB.

I really think that this should be the eyes by which we view this campaign. Because conservatives will ultimately vote against Obama by voting for McCain (or hopefuly Barr), and Liberals will untimately vote for Obama or against Bush. So I think it's really about who can get out the most of the middle of the road voters.

Obama will not win the people who aren't even contemplating voting for him, but he has a good chance of winning those who are.

alexa - loved your CR analogy.  I hear her on NPR - can't remember specific program - often asked for 'opinion' on what's happening in DC.  Really is helping show the world what dinosaurs are still hanging on in the MSM.