"The Apocalyptic 8?": Soon, We Find Out...

Al,

Why are you so pessimistic about Ohio? It was a near win in 2004, now has a popular Democratic governor, and surely Biden has more appeal in the rust belt than Sarah Palin? I thought that the Palin choice makes the situation more difficult for Obama in the West, and easier in the rust belt.

I have forwarded this to IL folks who are pondering which direction to head to volunteer for the campaign.

 This makes me feel better about my choice to volunteer in NV.

Anonymous - As I said before, one factor is that such a large swathe of southeast Ohio is culturally Appalachian - it might as well be Kentucky or West Virginia - and the Ohio primary was particularly polarizing with those voters, with Senator Clinton screeching "shame on you, Barack Obama!" and such.

And, frankly, I don't trust Governor Ted Strickland, even though he's a Democrat, to take the prophylactic anti-fraud measures that, for example, Tim Kaine has applied in Virginia. His support seems lukewarm and borderline suspicious.

Obviously, to win Ohio would be a victorious game-changer for Obama, but I'd warn against making it the obsessive focus it was in 2004. It is a potential path to victory, but it is not the path of least resistance that I see in Virginia and the three western swing states.

It is nice to know that my state can make a difference to swing over and help out turning Nevada blue.

What few people know is the amount of trickery that happened with Cleveland and Ohio votes in general in 2004. Our Secretary of State was elected on a platform of improving the vote and making it fairer, so we don't need to fear out and out vote and voter suppression or fraud.

Personally, I think Ohio will turn blue-Cleveland and Cincinnati and Columbus will outdo Appalachian Ohio by miles and miles. The rural vote just isn't that numerous that Republicans could win without fraud last time.

Just a feeling: but I think Montana will flip. It voted for Clinton in 1992 and with a Democratic Governor it should be a narrow but good win.

Nevada is more diverse than even 4 years ago, and is suffering the brunt of the housing and economic crisis. No way they go Republican this time. In fact, in 2000, Al Gore came within 4 points in the polls and narrowly lost the state.

New Hampshire is suburban Boston now, and should at least narrowly go for Obama.

Will be biting my nails for a winning report re Obama.

 

And appropriately intense, without being chicken-littleish or concern-trollish.

 

I think this is my first post since you moved from Rural Votes -- since then I have moved from New York to Virginia.  While I was dedicated to working for Obama no matter what, it heartens me a bit to know that my time and effort here may have even more impact than it would in my former home state.

 

Here's to the ground game and to community organizing!  Only two more months left to go.

If we need to do all this, in all these states, in a year where the fundamentals are so against the GOP ... it makes me nervous as hell.  Al, do you really think Obama is gonna win Virginia, Colorado and Nevada?  Just because these tossups were red last time doesn't mean McCain is in trouble, in my view.  If Obama loses them all by 2 instead of 10 or 20, we're still sunk.  If this comes down to Colorado late on election night, I might not survive.  And if we lose Michigan?   Death.

Doing my duty tonight and heading out on a bar crawl/voter registration event, and I'm taking as many friends with me as will join.

I'll see if I can find some numbers in relation to how many have been registered so far in Michigan or on campus (in Lansing/East Lansing).

Nick - If you find any of this "worrisome" it's because you would have been grossly over-optimistic to begin with. What you call "the fundamentals" have been mitigated by the unexpected (from the same media talkers that told you about the so-called "fundamentals") nomination victory of the Republican that is best known for running against Bush in 2000.

And, as we can see on this map, Senator Clinton's negative campaign tactics did inflict some general election harm on Obama, particularly in Appalachia. Most folks that hang around here were noticing that back when it happened.

In your case, it's probably a positive thing that you look at this map and worry. And yes, brace yourself to wait for Mountain Time poll closings (or even Pacific time, in the case of Nevada and Oregon) on election night before you may know the result.

Elections, by definition, are not sure things. Frankly, if Clinton or Edwards had been the nominee, this map would look a hell of a lot worse for the Democrats, with millions staying home and despondent.

amk

I like it. Conservative in expectations. A great starting point for the fall campaign. I would much rather be in Obama's shoes than McCain's. According to AP Dems have increased the voting electorate dramatically with the voter registration drive.

Obama will get them out there to vote. He has a good electoral vote base to operate from. After the RNC we have a bigger motivation than ever, and my Dem. friends are feeling it. This is the dark side of the Force, the evil empire we're fighting, the James Dobsons of the world taking control of the nuclear button, worse than W. The stakes are bigger than they have ever been in my lifetime of 60 years.

Al, I am right in the middle of writing my diary for about canvassing in Nevada this last weekend. It was an optimistic eye opener.

538's Return-on-Investment Index is based on the cost and concentration of tv commercial air time for each state, and so it's a guide to efficient ad buys-- not necessarily the most effective states to push volunteer efforts.

 

Call or email Chicago and tell the campaign what time you have available for travel.  If you can go anywhere, tell them that.  And go where they send you.

During the primary season they sent me places I would never have expected.  They have more polling data and more info on the  ground game than any of us.  And so far they've been pretty good at all this. :-)

Dave - What's the practical difference? Of course I know that 538's index is based on that (you seem to imply that I said otherwise, when I said nothing at all about it). TV ad buy prices are determined by how many people are watching in a given market. They also provide as good a measurement as any of "bang for the buck" in terms of "bang for the volunteer hour" and the relative percentage of voters in that state one can reach by, say, going door to door or making phone calls, the same as via TV ads.

If there's a significant differential, I'd like to hear it.

I live in the central Ohio area and, despite living in a hugely republican suburb near the University, the number of Obama signs vastly outnumber the McPalin signs. And I agree with the poster above who said something weird went on in the primaries in Cleveland. The African American turnout there was suspiciously low for Obama, and I have to wonder if the late Stephanie Tubbs Jones, and her rabid (bless her soul) support of HRC did have an effect?

Cincinnati, traditionally an ultra conservative town, could go McCain?

But Southern Ohio could very easily be turned around with some campaigning by Strickland, and you're right, Al, he's been far too quiet in his support of Obama. I'm really disappointed in him as he could at least neutralize the Southern Ohio vote, if not turn it to blue with a bit of "vouching for" Obama the way Joe Biden is.

Another disappointing Governor has been Ed Rendell in PA, who swore he was going to work as hard for Obama as he did for Hillary after the primary. Barely heard a peep out of him either, and given Youngstown, OH's proximity to Pittsburgh (and it's media market), he should have some influence on that vote as well.

Bill, a slight correction WE will get them out to vote ( * _ * )

Al - Personally, I was hoping for a blow-out, a landslide, an election as lopsided as 1984, but blue.  I wanted to be complacent, and not have to work too hard this fall. :-)

The good thing about a nail-biter, though, is that Obama's supporters have always come through in tough times.  We gave in the 24 hours after New Hampshire, and again after the Palin speech.  Obama volunteers flooded South Carolina.  And on and on.

I think we'll have a better campaign now that we know it looks tight.  We just have to go out there and keep on going... the goal is in sight now.

Let's assume that the Obama campaign understands the above and accepts the general look of what is in play and so forth. The whole thing seems to me predicated on the idea that the election will be close.

Here are some possible thngs that might influence that assumption and turn the election into a clear, if not landslide, win for one or the other.

WORST CASE OBAMA

The most obvious would be an incremental and successful campaign by the Rovians based on largely subliminal appeals to fear. This could be aided and abetted by debate losses, random gotcha moments and so forth. The lesson learned is that we did not fight back effectively.

WORST CASE MCCAIN

There is most definitely a smoking Palin gun. The mere willingness of the McCain forces to try to STOP the Troopergate investigation coupled with the High Noon stand off between Palin and the press corps means we are building up to a moment which could work for her or against her. If against, the recession of Palin importance would represent a huge blow to the tenuous McCain cobbling of the campaign into a faux reform model. Even without a Palin meltdown, and I have not touched on every possobility for the same reason that I refused to deal on my blog with similar imputations intil they were admitted, the sheer contradictions within the McCain model of today would create an incremental increase in Obama's fortunes leading to a clear win or landslide.

Another loss harbinger would be health issues relating to McCain.

Another would be his simple inability to escape an umbilical Bush connection.

The John Stewart send up of McCain's big night (JED has it) is practically a Dem. playbook.

The flip side of worst-case Obama could be a serious case of alienation from all things Republican including spiteful impunity politics. This could fuel a simple decency landslide.

In short while it is obvious there needs to be prioritizing for a close and subtle battle,  imponderables can sometimes determine outcomes.

Strickland and Rendell are Clinton loyalists.  They will do the bare minimum.  Some Clinton loyalists hold the same contempt for Obama that the Clinton and McCain campigns do/did.  Don't expect too much from them as they are looking ahead.

Al, I disagree that North Dakota leans towards John McCain. I would say that it is the biggest surprise of the entire election, and that it is a 100% bona-fide tossup. The polls are showing a tight race, and Obama even had the lead in one mid-summer sample. The two Dakotas, states that I've lived in for a total of 19 years, are fertile ground for an Obama victory on November 4th.

North Dakota is a particularly rich target because it doesn't have voter registration, which means that anyone who wants to vote can simply show up, present an ID, and cast a ballot! What an amazing opportunity to get Native American reservations, college students at UND in Grand Forks and NDSU in Fargo, Democrats in Bismarck, and senior citizens in the west to the polls.

Many will be quick to dismiss the state because it only has 3 electoral votes, but it's easier and cheaper to advertise in than New Hampshire (which only has 4 EVs, anyway) and it provides a good opportunity for some of the Minnesota volunteers to head to eastern ND now that their state is largely solidified. The religious demographic of North Dakota is heavily skewed towards Lutherans - one of Obama's best religious voting blocs- and he gets a lot of support from mainline ELCA voters.

Local press gave Obama huge front-page stories when he showed up earlier, and they'll do it again if he returns, because ND rarely gets national visitors. He should come again and barnstorm around the state for 2 days. Tellingly, the Obama campaign just opened more field offices. They know they have a shot, and they're coming on strong. Did I mention it's dirt cheap to campaign in North Dakota?

Allow me to preface this by saying the I want Obama to win in any configuration of states that it takes. I just want him to win. If that means every eastern state goes 100% for Obama and the election is called mid-afternoon, hooray for America.

That said, I have no patience for whining from ANYONE about having to wait until the results from western states come in before the outcome is known. It seems I've spent my whole life having the election be called by the media before our polls even close. Kinda makes people out here apathetic. Apathy is bad for Democrats and bad for change. I can't imagine how pointless voting for president must seem in AK and HI. It's the same kind of whining that gets people agitating to "reform" the primary process and just go to a national primary because they'll "just die" having to wait for each individual state to go through a process. Seriously, just get over yourself.

If I had my way, there wouldn't be ANY announcement until the next morning.

Rachel Q - I'm offering the most conservative analysis I can. Using those same numbers, Obama could also sweep the "toss up" states and would get 364 electoral votes to 174 for McCain. Toss in Montana, North Dakota, Missouri and Georgia - still plausible - and it's a 396 to 142 blow out. Add Mississippi or say a surprise in Kansas, you're talking 400+ electoral votes.

Also possible is a McCain romp: if he got all the "toss up" states it would be 300 to 238, not that far off from the Bush v. Kerry numbers but not the same scale of landslide as the potential Obama has to create one.

It's just too early to tell which way the swing states will swing. If the popular vote is Obama +5, that would lead to an electoral landslide (even though, technically, a popular vote landslide is by definition a lead of 10+ points). But I think projections - even in their infant stages - should remain conservative.

First an explanation, then a correction and then some information about Maine.

There are 4 electoral votes in Maine. The way the electoral system works in Maine is that whoever wins the state gets two electoral votes. Then the other two evs are allocated based on who won the electoral district. So if one candidate wins the state and both cds, he gets 4 evs. If one candidate wins the state but only one cd, he gets 3 evs.  So with the 2nd cd, two electoral votes are not at stake.

In 2000 and 2004, the 1st cd was strong for the Democratic candidate and the 2nd cd was far closer. The same seems to be true this cycle as well, although the district is also getting a lot of attention because it includes the hometown and current residence of Senator Susan Collins. Allen represents the first district and is less well known and less in tune with certain aspects of the culture in the 2nd cd. So working the 2nd cd is helpful both to Obama and Allen.

I've read accounts online that say McCain doesn't look well. Age 72 and his health challenges combined with the stress of a modern Presidential candidacy are probably taking more of a toll than we know. Even Barack on occasion looks tired after 19 months, and he is in supremely good shape. Before the convention, he was campaigning 5 days a week and one appearance a day. Now he will have to at least double the number of appearances just to keep up with Obama, and cut back on the rest. Now usually a VP helps by making some appearances, but Palin is so bad that she can't help him in that way-she can't even make appearances on her own.

I bet the McCain Campaign sits around him like a worried mother, hoping that there's no health downturn of any sort. Even a cold probably worries them at this point. If America had to even truly consider that Sarah Palin would have to shortly move up to the top spot, that alone might be enough to flip a few states.

My first impressions are that you may be overselling the case in Florida and underselling Ohio and Montana.

Florida is one of the few states that Clinton would have done better in. It's also one of the states where Obama's choice of Biden will help him and McCain's choice of Palin will hurt him. Nevertheless, I see this mostly being about the top of the ticket here and the demographics of age is a tough nut to crack. It definitely warrants effort, but strkes me as more of a hail mary pass than Ohio. There have been few polls showing Obama with a lead of any size, but several with a solid McCain lead. Maybe these grandparents day cards will help, but fear, age, and experience has a real chance of trumping hope there.

Anything short of a big nationwide victory for McCain will involve a nail-biter in Ohio. Obama definitely has a ceiling as about half the population will not vote for him under any circumstances. But this is a ground game/turnout state. Chanting "Ohio Ohio Ohio" like Russert did in 04 would be foolish (and maybe that's your point), but whichever side turns out the most voters (minus election irregularities) will win here. That's reason enough to keep dumping a large (but not foolishly large) amount of resources in the state.

I see two possible reasons that Montana is off your list. First, I think Palin might really help here. She's obviously eliminated the somewhat longshot of Alaska from contention and Montana is the most Alaska-like of the remaining states. Second is that Montana will turn blue after Colorado turns blue and Colorado has the advantage of its hispanic population. Colorado + either NM or NV is likely to be a victory, but I still think Montana could be an important part of a backup plan if things go poorly in Michigan. There's no Ross Perot in this election, but the state likes Obama far more than it liked Bill Clinton. Plus, this could be the only state in the country where Bob Barr has an actual effect on the outcome.

It's the biggest longshot I can think of, but I'll be pushing as much as I can in Idaho since I can't travel much, being a student. But I'm going to try to make it over to Oregon and Montana at various points when I have the money. We're doing tons of voter registration drives on campus this semester, though, so maybe the universities will at least make it closer than it has been for as long as Idaho has been around.

Personally, I'd love to have it flip just to see the looks of pure bafflement on the pundits' faces. The look on Keith's face when Obama won the caucus here by a LOT was priceless.

This discussion is making me very nervous.  I am like Rachel Q above . . . I was hoping for a blowout.  OK, so I'm back to reality.  I will see about going to either Florida or Michigan since Texas will probably stay red (darnit!!).  I was hoping that we could push the Latino population since they comprise 37.4 percent of the voting population, but looking at Rick Noriega's money v. John Cornyn's (he's outmatched 10-1), looks like we are not rallying that group.  So I'll vote early and pack up to work in a state where I'm really needed.

This all so frustrating for me.  While I'm not as knowledgeable in these matters as most of you guys, it still boggles my mind that people would vote for the SAME PARTY that got us into this mess in the first place.  It should be a clear choice for people--get rid of the culprits that stole our constitutional rights, destroyed the economy, got us in an unnecessary war that saw many of our young people killed or maimed, destroyed our standing in the world, etc., etc.  That should be the overriding argument against ever putting these people back in office again.  We argue about the Palins and the other "symptoms" rather than  what I believe is the true issue--the Republican Party as it is today.  It need to go.  Period. 

I haven't commented since the URL switch either, but felt compelled to chime in.

I'm involved with the campaign in Page County, VA, where we have unprecedented enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket this year. Our office is about 9 miles west of the Appalachian Trail, though I admit we've had a significant influx of residents who are escaping the high cost and density of DC, which could skew comparisons with more centrally Appalachian areas.

However, as we call around this very Republican county, we're getting very similar numbers of Obama and McCain supporters, with a huge number of undecided voters. And when those voters share the issues that matter to them, they're almost always the ones that Obama is strongest on.

This week, we've started to see a marked increase in volunteers, as well as more people who say they usually vote Republican, but can't do so this time. Ironically, it's the Republican convention that seems to be triggering better results in our polling, especially Palin's speech. She certainly energized our base, and I don't get the impression that she played well here among independents.

The negatives in Appalachia for us include racism, evangelical dominance in the culture and media, and a recent tradition of voting Republican. However, my gut says that racism is unlikely to tip many voters from Obama or to McCain, as the most racist folks are already voting Republican. Instead, I expect it to keep apathetic voters from making a choice. And, while the culture is dominated by evangelicals, they are not a majority. Finally, this corner of Appalachia is fiercely independent, and many of those Republican voters are more Libertarian in spirit. Obama has strong appeal to those voters, and most of the Libertarians I know intend to vote for him. (They are in utter disbelief that Bob Barr got the nomination.)

We've recently gotten several enthusiastic volunteers who, only two weeks ago, were Hillary holdouts.

I guess all I'm sayin' is don't discount Appalachia. This is an area ripe for the pickin', especially when it comes to voter persuasion. A strong populist message could easily override the negatives we face here. And volunteers in the local campaigns are the best people to carry that message.

Al, I love your analysis and it makes perfect sense. As a Californian (and SF East Bay), I have a dilemma. I work a nine to five that is not flexible, I also have a part time gig which is pretty demanding, so time is limited. I have done everything I can by donating regularly and some phonebanking, and just did some weekend voter registration. I live in a heavily Latino neighborhood and met last nite with some community activists who are concerned about getting the vote in this neighborhood. I am hosting a strategy session on the 14th. This is my question: I can manage one weekend to go to Nevada; but outside of that, I'm going to need to stay local. How do I maximize my efforts here where so many people have said to me, "don't worry, California is blue" ... but I keep thinking that each voter is still important, if for no other reason than to get people invested in the process. i will be 60 years old on November 5; I have beautiful brown children and grandchildren. There's not a gift in the world that would rival my ability to give them a future... 

Kathleen Hargan,

I live in Florida and i have done some canvassing and what I have noticed is that Latinos say they support Obama but they are enthuastic about him. Is that the same situation in California?

that's where the Utah for Obama offices are pouring their resources and voluteers.
for now I volunteered for  the 10 days before Nov 4th of GOTV in CO.

 

 

Here's a link describing the voter registration drive in Virginia that confirms your assessment of Virginia as a high prospect to flip.

49,000 new Dems in Aug. 36,500 in July, 28, 000 in June. On track to register 150,000 new Dems by Oct. deadline- in addition to the 142,000 new Dem voters in the primary. 290,000 plus Dem voters increase this election year!! That's what you call enlarging the electoral universe.

Kathleen,

The comment should have read:

 

I live in Florida and i have done some canvassing and what I have noticed is that Latinos say they support Obama but they are not enthuastic about him. Is that the same situation in California?

This might play well in Florida. It's not a gag.

http://www.forward.com/articles/14121/

Michelle Obama Has a Rabbi in Her Family

Al - One of the components to the Return on Investment Index was the "bleed" factor of tv markets. For example, buying air for northern Indiana effectively meant buying air from Chicago, an expensive and largely ineffective tv market to buy from. Volunteers don't "bleed." (They do, but that's usually fixed with medical attention.) The value of putting your shoe leather to work in Gary is much higher than the value of buying ad time, much higher than the RoII would show.

Al, I felt the same thing during Clinton’s assaults that either way this nomination goes, we will pay for this bitterness later. Any way, what is to be done now? Who is the out-of- state-help most affective to help us win Ohio and Pennsylvania – do you think President Clinton would be a big help. I think he has more credibility in addressing economic woos than Sen. Clinton (former popular president). Finally, pardon my ignorance but can you please explain to me this focus on small towns and rural areas. My understanding is urban areas are more populated than small towns. So, why is the McCain campaign putting all of its energy on rural areas?

the map above that AL shows to win is basically the Gore map plus CO and NH. not much is talked about this but Gore would have won if he had carried NH. they should be ashamed in NH. but I doubt they are.

obviously the electoral weights have changed in 8 years so the Gore map no longer wins with just NH. we need CO or any other battleground state. that is the point we just need one from many. OH or FL is a closer. VA is a closer.

I just can't see MI going red with unemployment at 8%.

McCain has to win all we just need one or two. I like the odds.

Anya,

Rural votes can offset votes from urban areas.

 

 

Dave - Agreed regarding Indiana and that "value of shoe leather" factor would probably raise that ranking some of Virginia (because of the expensive Washington DC market), New Hampshire (ditto with Boston) and Iowa (which is served by Nebraska and Illinois media markets), and around the edges of Ohio (small parts of the population served by West Virginia and Pennsylvania markets). Good point.

Apparently, the Utah Obama campaign agrees with your assessment. I have already a call to do a Register to Vote trip to Colorado this month; I said YES. It seems nice that Utahns can actually do something to get their candidate elected because this is highly unusual feeling.

I was telling folks while I was in Denver about Utah and that all the work was gearing up for the Utah primary on Super Tuesday, because for the general here, individual votes become extraordinarily lost in the sea of red. As you can imagine, in all my 15 years here, there has been only sporatic presidential campaign ads, billboards and bumper stickers (and FORGET campaign visits from either side). When the national elections roll around, you wouldn't know it living here. (PS: I know that is much else to do otherwise in registering, working etc on a local level; the point here is the national level elections in Utah).

However, what you point out above really brings home the difference between this and past presidential elections. I know I am used to NEVER being able to make any difference at all here BUT Utahns are being asked to go to neighboring states, and that is a great feeling. It does start making one think individual efforts can help.

So, I can feel the effects from a) the Obama campaign and b) what you write about Al - the 50 state strategy. Great News.

And, I was on the nation's highest ranked alternate music radio station and its' number one morning show for under 35 in the region on Friday. Ok, I do it every Friday morning... but was surprised when the hosts took extra time out of the show to ask about my visit to Denver. They took extra time also to ask about Obama's economics in my opinion. This would have reached 10-20 thousand listeners at a minimum. I had my Denver "flair" on - that great big blue button that says: "Ask Me How Many Houses I Own." That was a big hit.

Thanks for the explanation!

My husband went to the opening of the Northern California field office Thursday night. (I stayed home with a fussy baby, who only slept after McCain started speaking.) I was astounded to hear his estimate of 500 people, spilling out into the street until the police arrived and got them onto the sidewalk. I was thinking maybe 50-60 people would show up.

DailyKos has a diary (not by us):

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/4/22450/85438/573/587271

They handed out flyers which basically said GO TO NEVADA, NOW. They had 3 weekends organized in September, Southern Californians to Las Vegas and Northern Californians to Reno and Carson City. If you can't go in you can phone bank, but with a less than 4-hour drive from the Bay area to Reno, about the same from LA to Vegas and the weather cooling this month, I bet a lot of folks head over. Oregon was also listed as a possibility, but not as strongly at all.

 

BlueSD - The fact is that the Obama campaign has enough millions to play hard in some states more likely to go to McCain precisely in order to force McCain to spend time and money there to defend them.

Remember that they've got staff in all 50 states, and have staffed up in Montana and North Dakota, too, probably at comparative "per capita" levels as in Missouri. When you have two million donors it's no longer a matter of spending one place at the expense of another, but, rather, in addition to the other.

And Missouri's proximity to Illinois along with the general midwest strength of the candidacy does make it, like Indiana, a potential for a surprise.

The past two elections ('00 and '04) were atypical in that the state by state results were so symmetrical. If you click back through the maps for 1996 and 1992 (where the Ross Perot factor upset the apple cart) you see a much different map. If you click the Reagan-Bush I elections, you see a very different map. Remember that Carter beat Ford in '76 while losing California, Oregon and Washington (but winning Texas and Florida!). The map changes radically with each new generation. Don't start to think that the results of the last two presidential elections are all that determinative for this one.

KD

For the first time in my lifetime, its the Democrat who has more money, far more money than the Republican who is taking public funds. How that will play out we probably won't know until next week when McCain has run through his primary money and now has to rely on his limited public funds. When that happens I think we will know just where McCain has to spend his limited funds. Also, about money: big Dem donors can now give freely to all levels of the ticket, so Obama will get some, the Senate will get some, everybody else will get the rest.

People talk about the 527's, but it's pretty late to ramp up efforts either financially or organizationally. Obama's been at it for a year, his fundraising and his offices long at work. The Republicans have mostly sat on their hands and now have to do a rush job to put up something in 60 days through the churches. Late efforts-said by this procrastinator-is never as good as early and long efforts in quality and thoroughness. Palin's absence won't help here either if they are counting on her to rally the religious right troops.

To sum it up, I believe Obama's strategy is like the primaries: force McCain to burn through his money and then lay down the baseball bat in October between McCain's shoulders for the win.

 

Thanks so much for this post Al.  I recently moved from Virginia to Vermont and was moping about the fact that I wouldn't be in VA to help it turn blue, but I can see from your post and the comments that NH is also important.

@Kathleen Hargan - I think you asked what if you are in a blue state but can't travel much, how can you help.  You should go to your local  office, because a lot of the phone banking (at least that is how it is in Vermont), is calling Obama supporters in Vermont to ask them if they can volunteer.  And maybe these folks can travel.  It's all about building the web.  A giant pyramid scheme.  Hee hee hee.

KD

I'd like to reiterate Al's point that the single electoral vote from Maine's 2nd cd is important. In 2004, Bush visited twice and Edwards visited once. In 2000, there were visits from Bush and Lieberman.  (I guess that tells you that the Democrats saw it as a slightly lower priority than the Republicans). Karl Rove said after 2000 that if it were not for the DUI story breaking -- which broke in the Maine newspapers quite hard the weekend before the election, because the DUI happened in Maine -- that he thought they would have won the 2nd cd.

As per the rest of the country, Obama is out organizing McCain in the state and, from what I hear, lots of new volunteers are streaming in and they are being put to work. And the Senate race, which is part of the coordinated campaign is heating up, too.

Hi Fieldhands,

So I had been reading this board for a while and am dying to get involved somehow.

The ethical dilema I have is that I am not a US citizend and do not live in the US.

So

Question 1: Should I get involved or is this unethical?

Question 2: How can I help?

(as a bit of background - I am an Israeli citizen (former IDF officer), live in Canada. So probably could be effective in the Jewish comunity - not sure how though...)

 

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/4/224034/0527/564/587264

 

Check out the 2 car photos, halfway down the page!

NV, here we come!

Living in New Hampshire as I do, it's both incredibly exciting and a little bit frustrating. As a small state, each vote counts that much more. But I'm too young to vote, so I've been trying to make up the difference with volunteering and canvassing after school and on weekends. Seeing that investement return index makes it even easier to go out there and talk to the folks who will stay independent until the very day of the election (though I've got to chant in my head, "they're listening, they're listening!"). Having the parents of my friends tell me I've convinced them to vote for Barack reaffirms what I'm doing in New Hampshire, and the tallies I've been getting from calls and canvassing tell me that yes, we are making a difference.

Any Field Hands from Mass, you're more than welcome to come lend a hand up here!

Hey Al (and anyone who has insights),

 

I'm from Kentucky, but currently at school in Nashville, TN. Is there anything useful I can really do regionally/locally? I don't have much time to travel to Ohio or Indiana, but I hate the idea of sitting around and doing nothing. But I get the impression that there's still not much to be done that could affect the outcome. How much would voter turnout in the big cities affect the outcome?

This diary on DKos today fleshes out the dynamics in Montana and North Dakota.

It reports that the Obama campaign counts with 14 offices in Montana and nine in North Dakota.

Considering that each has just 3 Electoral Votes, that sounds like a comparable investment, per capita, as what is going on in other swing states.

 

 

Two factors not mentioned are:

1 - Early voting with same day registration - this should benifit Obama

2 - Joe Biden - he is really connectio to the over 50 voters

I appreciate your response, and upon further thought, I agree. I'd been subscribing to the fallacy of mutual exclusivity, when the reality was much more complex. Obama probably is awash in money, so I agree that it's not likely a detriment to him to be invested in MO like he is.

 

I wonder if it's wise for the Obama campaign to invest more than their fair share of per capita resources into these two states, since they are so cheap to advertise in and GOTV determines pretty much everything? Obama could put down 5 million dollars and have blanket ad coverage until Election Day if need be. Or he could hire more local staff, who are critical in these states because voters want to talk to local people that they know. Plus, in ND there's no voter registration, so the normal expense that Team O would have can now go to identification and turnout operations.

 

But I'm sure they know what they are doing. Many Chicken Littles are concerned about this supposed "top secret" and high tech advanced Republican turnout operation. Personally, I think it's the same thing they used in 2004 (which wasn't bad, but I think Team Obama has much better tech now). Plus, why would the Republicans go out and brag about their weapon if it's top secret? To me, it just sounds like a ploy to convince their donors and supporters that all is well.

 

The one wild card is McCain's money laundering operation. He's taking advantage of the loopholes in his law to funnel money to the RNC and his legal fund, but he's spending it as if it's his. That somewhat dilutes the Obama money advantage, but Obama's ground game has been in place longer, so it probably will dominate the hastily produced Republican effort.

 

I'm looking forward to that first brutal Obama ad that we all know is coming soon! I'm thinking McCain's "Social Security is a disgrace" quote will be seeing a lot of airplay very, very shortly.

Lolo--

If youa re willing to travel you could go to battleground states that need phonebankers or ground work and work as outreach with jewish communities.

You could also volunteer to go to synangogues on a fireday night to talk about how as an israeli and a former soldier you think the obama administration is important.

I know for a fact that you cannot donate money but as a volunteer you can donate your time and personal sotries have more power of conviction than a check.

You couls also compose and email explaining why you support Obama and circulate it with your friends and tell them to pass it on. These things make a difference.

Hope this helps. If anyone thinks of anyhitng else or thinks I am offerng bad advice please pipe up!

I'd like to disagree with your assessment that the map changes every generation. Political parties in this country were formed in 1796 when a man from Massachusetts ran againsta man from Virginia. This pattern of a "Massacusetts party" against a "Virginia party" persisted in a virtually unbroken line . Sure, the Federalists became the National Republicans then the Whigs and then the Republicans, but they remained essentially a northeastern party plus whatever else they could find. The Democrats in their incarnations remained geographically centered in the southeast. The frontier remained a battleground. The biggest victories tended to be when a member of the Massachusetts party ran from a state in the heart of Virginialand.

The 1960s-1908s really represented the only longstanding reversal of the founding Federalist/Republican northeast vs. Democratic southeast. That started thanks primarily to a member of the Virginia party from Massachusetts - JFK. It cemented itself with Reagan. Now for the first time since 1796, the heart of the party that can trace itself to Adams is found in the southeast whereas the heart of Jefferson's party is in the northeast.

The 2004 election, where a Texan from the southern party was up against a Massacheese from the northeastern party represented the height of the modern split.

In my opinion, the 50-state strategy is not an attempt to manage another once-in-a-Republic flip of the electorate. The goal is to probe everywhere with the recognition that each candidate has hidden strengths even in the heart of the other party's territory. They will certainly have different strengths among the purple states. A socially conservative Morman Democrat could turn Utah blue. A socially liberal Republican can turn Vermont red. The elections of Jim Matheson and Jim Douglas don't signal that either state will flip relative to 2004, but both parties would be foolish to concede those offices.

Perhaps I'm wrong. The most tragic aspect of this split in our country has been the role that race has played. It held for more than a hundred years based largely on slavery. It shifted again because of civil rights legislation. Perhaps the only way that these geographic lines can become blurred is in a post-racial nation. Maybe a highly successful black president is one of the only things that can move us toward that post-racial state.

Al, I haven't read my fellow fielders' comments yet, but I am always impressed by your political accumen and solid analysis.  Bravo!

My formulative years were lived in Mississippi, and I know that it is a bit quixotic to think that it could go for Obama.   But we have some pugnacious folk in Missip!

Indeed, I am engage in the registration drive here in Florida--and we have our work cut out for us.  Yes we can!

Yes, Al, remember that photo of Ted Strickland looking uncomfortable with Hillary during the primaries?

Something just seems 'weak' about the guy--he looks like someone that doesn't have very solid core progressive values.  A appellation 'snake' comes to mind.

In states where the Republican party is a powerful force, Democrat politicians can be bought.

Here in Florida the Democrat party are particularly weak-kneed about protecting folks' right and ability to vote, and then to have their votes count.

John - Only a very small percentage of people have the time and resources to cross state lines. The great majority work where they are. In Texas, for example, Obama may not carry the state, but by maximizing the vote he creates a very strong chance that the Democrats can take the state legislature, which will be determining the next Congressional redistricting plan in accordance with an updated census. The last time that was done, Republicans controlled the legislature, and they viciously gerrymandered districts to maximize GOP representation in the US Congress. Should Democrats get the upper hand this time, it will surely lead correspondingly to an largely new and more progressive Texan Congressional delegation, which would be vital in terms of governing.

I'm sure that there are similar dynamics in Tennessee and Kentucky. Furthermore, if a 2000-type situation develops and it comes down to a contested election in one state, having the bragging rights to having won the national popular vote is terribly important. It was the difference between Gore contesting the Florida results '00 and Kerry not contesting the Ohio results in '04. And that number will be determined by what goes in in all states: the percentages do matter.

Finally, one just never knows where a surprise might occur. You throw the darts at the board closest to you. Sometimes you hit a bulls eye. Other times, say, in Kentucky, you might end up dethroning a Senate Republican Leader. Especially in a "change" election year, many hatches aren't quite as batted down, so take a crowbar to the one nearest you!

FWI, I'm in Florida, Panama City to be exact.  This is Bush Country and when I moved here three years ago it seemed every vehicle you would see had a W sticker on it.  I work in a bar so I get a great cross section of the populace and I'm seeing a whole lot of YAWN when it comes to McCain.  I've seen ONE McCain yard sign and ONE McCain bumpersticker so far and I drive the busiest street in town every day.  I've seen one Obama bumbersticker and I have a customer that was going down to the Obama office here in town to pick up five for he and his coworkers. 

 I have had people I know voted Bush two times, tell me; "I'm not voting, I can't stand either one of them".  I don't think Palin changed that equation all that much.  Mostly the customers I hear fawning over her were going to vote for anything with an "R" after it's name anyway.  I also had a long conversation with a guy yesterday as we watched the news.  He commented on Palin and how dreamy she was.  I proceeded to explain just how much she "hates" earmarks, to the tune of sucking 27 million dollars worth from the US taxpayer.  I also explained how she was under investigation and all her other various "misspeaks" like the bridge to nowhere.  He told me I had changed his mind, he was going to reconsider his vote for McCain.  I do what I can here in Red State Hell.

I seriously believe Florida is in play.  I will be doing all I can here, we have a decent size AA population here that is growing.  After the Martin Lee Anderson debacle, it's not hard to get them "fired up and ready to go". 

Al -

 

I take it from this that I should encourage our new office in South Carolina opening tomorrow to work in Georgia rather than here in state?? South Carolina polls have been few and far between and I live in Beaufort County, a heavily African American and Hispanic county while also heavily tourist friendly. We are right outside Savannah, however, and could do some work there as well, if the head of the office is open to the idea. I do believe there are lots of unregistered African American and Hispanic voters that could make an impact in this state, but it seems like now isn't the time that it will turn blue for us.

This link to an interactive Federal Election Commission fundraising and expenditure stat/map is pretty interesting, for those who haven't run across it before. It shows you through 7/31 where the money's coming from and going. The map/and charts give you a pretty good read on who's outraising who and by how much where.

But the one thing that strikes me, now that we kick off the general officially, is that as of 7/31, McCain had $21.4 million in cash on hand, compared to Obama's $65.8 million.

But because of the public finance game, McCain's $21.4 million figure is a bit misleading. He has burned through (attack ads) or transferred most of that to other affiliated committees by now to make room for his $84 million public money infusion (which is now his ceiling in his "official" committee, McCain 2008 Inc. I'm sure the strategy from there is to have all new Rep. contributions flow into the affiliated committees from this point on to supplement that.

So technically, depending on what Obama raised in August, McCain's campaign committee could actually have more money in the bank than does Obama's as of this point.

So the race is on. But to me an important advantage Obama has is that his campaign through July 31 has spent some $332 million building a national organization. McCain, by contrast, in saving his guns for the general push, has only laid out $129.3 million. And given the rules about affiliated committees not being able to directly coordinate strategy (though there are cumbersome ways to bend that rule) for the most part the Republicans have already set up their game plan will be less nimble going forward.

Obama faces no such constrictions and can react on a dime as conditions warrant in the next two months. But the money advantage everyone seems to assume is a given from this point forward, to me, looking at these numbers, is not a given. It very much depends on Obama continuing to raise some big money over the next few months to keep his machine in high gear.

GOTV and ground organizing is key, of course, but those efforts do need money to keep moving. But I like what I see if I'm in the Obama camp; look at the swing states and see the money coming out of many of them to date. It's a good sign that there are already very strong organizations on the ground in those areas. 

At least that's how I read this map. But I am quite certain I can be enlightened by others who see what I'm missing or misinterpreting. 

Kris - None of this analysis is intended to second guess those with access to more information that I have at my fingertips (i.e. those that run the campaigns). It's possible that there are "head fakes" going on in what a campaign declares are the battleground states and where it considers that it could pull off a surprise. I'm sure whomever is staffing that office in South Carolina has marching orders as to where to deploy the volunteer base, and that they are based on better info than is at my fingertips.

As I used to say to my fellow inmates who, upon finding I had a nose for law and representing myself in court, would line up to have me look at their appeals and other legal briefs: "I'm happy to tell you what I think but I'm not a lawyer and I'm no replacement for your own attorney!"

These are just the observations of a "jailhouse lawyer," much like I offered during the primaries. In the end, your attorney is whomever is staffing that office.

Well, on a hopeful note--I think that this election might surprise the pundits inasmuch as cell phones are under-represented in most mainstream polling numbers.

Of course, older homeowners are most likley to vote--but, I am just say'n, there's a huge amount of people who don't have any landline whatsoever.

The comments here have been cogent.

The the young lady, still in high school, in New Hampshire: You Rock!  I'm sure you do your parents proud.  Keep it up.  Yes we can!

Ok, they is something I am obviously missing here, can someone please enlighten me. I read again just now (per NYT) that there are around 600,000 registered African American voters in Florida who didn't vote in 2004. This time around, how can Florida not be a slam dunk?

Illinois has not forgotten Michigan.

I travelled to Kalamazoo today with a group from Chicago to register voters.  The office there was amazed at how many of us came.  They set us to work quickly canvassing the largely African American northside of town.  We were welcomed with warmth and friendship by a group that is often forgotten and neglected.  They know what's at stake and they're excited to be involved.  We told everyone we met that their votes were crucial, and that if McCain could be blocked in Michigan, that's probably the end of his hopes.  Our group registered 133 new voters, and we were not the only ones in the city that day.  Multiply that by all the medium sized communities in Michigan, all of which were doing similar drives today.  We're getting there, but the job isn't done yet.

We saw no sign of any activity anywhere in town for McCain, no signs, nothing.  Maybe he should get himself some community organizers?  I hear they come in handy.

Posted on Kos, now posting on Field Hands. I am not much of a writer, but I had to jot some stuff down.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/6/205910/4053/346/589524
WORK HARD, PEOPLE

I know that's corny, but I think that is the biggest thing to remember about volunteering. I think if you don't live in a swing state and can travel to one, great. But I think there is a lot to be said in making sure that your blue state stays solid, or (for people like me in TN) my red state gets just a few more people who look at Obama favorably.

Al,

Did you happen to see the Presidential candidates, on c-span today via live video, at the AARP Convention?  I was pretty impressed with Barack and so were the attendees.  Barack hit mostly economic issues, especially SS, Medicare & Prescription Drugs.  He got lots of applause when he laid out his plans and the ideas behind them.  The biggest applause line was probably when he said he would get all the players around the table, even the insurance companies and drug companies but the difference would be that they wouldn't be able to buy all the seats.  Another BIG round of applause when he said that the meetings would be on c-span so that the public could see exactly what their representatives were doing & hold them accountable.

McCain, on the other hand, did not give any plans at all.  All he could say was that he knew how to get Dems & Repubs to sit down together to work something out.  He got some applause but it was tepid compared to what Barack got.  He would also go off topic a lot when answering questions... into his stump speech stuff.

I think that he should flood FL, and all states really, with CDs of those exchanges and he would get 80% of the 'elderly' vote. 

AARP already has the videos up here:

http://www.aarp.org/aarp/events/Life_at_50_dc/

I thought Barack did great!  Let me know what you think.

 

 

Your post was great! Thank you for sharing.

* IMHO, African/American and Latino turnout is going to be over-the-top-mega-huge on November 4.  I don't think the polls can anticipate just how excited minority voters are about this election, and it happens that many such voters are found in Al's "Apocalyptic Eight" states of Michigan, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.  There are 77 electoral votes in those states alone.  If Obama can start with the base of voters that Gore and Kerry got and add big numbers of previously unregistered and newly enthused minority and youth votes, then McCain is in trouble.

* I'm also thinking that the Palin pick for VP is revealing, in the sense that she doesn't bring in a significant new constituency for McCain; she only shores up his base of cultural fundamentalists and gun nuts, and those votes were his to begin with.  It's true that Palin might drive more of these people to the polls, but they are mostly in states that McCain is expected to win anyway.  The fact that the GOP calculated that McCain's candidacy is so shaky that they had to secure the base by nominating Miss Wassila tells us that they are on the defensive.

P.S. - I'm hoping the Obama campaign devotes its anti-fraud resources to states where there is a Republican Secretary of State combined with significant minority population.  That's where the potential for trouble lies.

 

I'm a team leader for Obama in Chester County Pa. I have a difficult task, in that I have a high density Obama voter area that historically underperforms.  Even with the historic opportunity, the work is tough.  We welcome volunteers.

 

Great diary!

I am stuck in Okieland for the duration.  Between work and single motherhood of a teenage son, I just don't have time.  But, I am working hard to keep my part of the state blue.  My local representative is up for reelection and he has to beat the Republican.  And, Andrew Rice does have a chance against Inhofe.  With Palin, it's less of a chance but I will work hard for him.  If he doesn't make it this year, maybe next time.  Inhofe is not really well liked in Oklahoma.  Environmental issues have become more important here.  So, I will keep plugging away and donate when I can to everyone.

 

 

I know this is a motivational post, Al, and I dig it. But, that said,

let me second chazzg's note above about Ohio. If you really, really, really want to help out Ohio, make the trip up the week of 9/30, which is the week of one stop registration and voting. Ohio has early voting that starts September 30th, but that's the only week unregistered voters can both register and vote.

Incidentally, anyone want to guess where Obama was during the RNC?

Southeast Ohio, a place he never visited during the primaries (and lost to HRC by a large margin). I would suspect, also, that Biden will make more than his fair share of visits there.

Michigan. My opinion on Michigan isn't any different. I'll take Wayne County, Ann Arbor, Lansing and the UAW and put it up against anyone you can dredge up out west and up north and I'll win by at least 3%. I think Republicans should view Michigan the way Democrats should view North Carolina, tempting, but probably not winable this cycle.

If there's one state in which the Palin pick could backfire, it's New Hampshire, which prides itself on being knowledgeable politically. I don't think the amateur hour VP pick will play well there.

I have no real hope for Missouri or Florida, and, frankly, never have.

But I wish everyone luck, and I'll do as much as I can here in Ohio.

The Fed is going to shut down Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae tomorrow. Common stock share holders will be wiped out and preferred stock shareholders will take a bath.

This will probably make another tailspin day on Wall street by Monday. Sepember and October have typically been the core months fr market crashes.

The remaining days of this election will be haunted by Bush induced disasters. By 11/4 another 100,000 people minimum will be unemployed given current consistent trends.

By 11/4 thousands more will lose their homes to foreclosure.

By 11/4, well have a pretty good idea of how horrific this scary hurricane season will play out and a few big ones will cause havoc to the alredy stressed insurance industry and I'm confident Bush FEMA will suck at responding.

By 11/4 another 10 banks will probably go into receivership and Citicorp is a disaster waiting to happen.

These will be urgent matters. 401k alloctions will vaporise. The Fed Highway trust fund is bankrupt and this will seize up road projects in every state.

Ye of little faith need to realize that Bush/Cheney Looter Class damage will not magically end now that RNC is over, hell no.

McCain has made his cluelessness on all these things gloriously clear. While some research does suggest that Amrian voters are lazy, dim and apathetic, they will all be reeling from these macro factors.

One might even attribute the unusually high viewer ratings for both conventions as an indice of voter worry and I doubt the 38 million who witnessed Palin's disgusting conduct and McCain's pitiful implosion will walk away from the moment with rosy confident thoughts about that candidacy.

It's all about ground game...

 

Via The Edge of the American West

 

State	R	D	Other	Period
AK	2,836	2,628	6,825	March-September
AZ	32,141	68,480	4,359	January-September
CA	46,497	417,793	117,313	January-May
CO	13,352	66,516	23,437	January-July
DE	676	4,428	2,200	July-September
FL	77,196	209,422	26,100	January-June
IA	7,515	69,301	-62,922	January-August
KS	1,553	13,159	-1,704	January-March
MD	4,260	12,338	5,544	January-July
NV	1,230	51,547	7,550	January-August
NH	-1,285	1,188	269	June-August
NY	1,526	102,559	-164	November-March
NC	20,363	171,955	123,605	January-August
OR	-13,349	122,518	-	January-July
PA	289	98,137	15,907	April-August
WY	1,390	3,409	5,892	January-August

As mentioned tangentially above, polling could very well be way off, due to sharp changes in voting demographics turn out, cell phones and party ID, to name a few variables. As Al wisely says, look to Chicago for the real tea leaves.

just because Obama may not win there. Remember, "all politics is local"! I live in Colorado, so believe me, both local and national races are important (State, House, Senate, AND the pres races). But EVERYWHERE, even if you can't travel: A) Don't give up on BO wherever you are. If you get someone to trip the "D" lever or button for president in your city/town, they are more likely to trip it for your house and senate seats too! This will mean a great deal when Obama takes the presidency. B) Don't give up on your local Dems, wherever they are. Good candidates may not even make it this year, but may make it in two or four years from now if they get enough encouragement (i.e. VOTES!). Thanks Al, for your conservative view -- it looks very encouraging to me!

Yup.  I was there in Terre Haute at the Wabash Valley Fair Grounds with Fieldhand Siddhartha (who made it down by bus from Chicago). Obama's team organized a superb rally and townhall meeting for about 1000 people. Volunteer workers received tickets for knocking on 50 doors or calling homes for a few hours on Thursday. The event was exceedingly smooth and efficient--I mean really clockwork. And one really nice touch was that the bulk of the tickets actually went to people who the campaign identified as "undecided." I cannot believe too many left undecided, especially after the several Republicans who Testified to their chagrin at ever really considering McCain. (They were warmly embraced to be sure!) Obama said to one such Republican, something to the effect of: "You can still love your party, but if you love your country more, you should be voting for me after the disaster of the last 7 years." The event garnered many new voter registrations and volunteers.  We are working this district really hard. So, the Fieldhand who organized a 30 person bus.... I am sure that we have good work for you guys here. 

From our own afternoon canvassing, there are still a lot of lies well-lodged in voters' heads. One guy we talked to read a single op-ed in the Tribune Star cut and pasted from the NRA website claiming that Obama was opposed to the Second Amendment. When we gave him evidence to the contrary, he said: "Well, I wanted to vote for Obama, but when I heard that he was against the 2nd Amendment, I decided on McCain. Thanks for letting me vote for the guy I really wanted all along." The lesson: VOTER CONTACT WORKS--and it doesn't take much to bring people on the fence on board.  AND, these myths and lies are really NOT that well ingrained; they can be pushed back on with a dose of authentic enthusiasm and real knowledge. 

It was an honor. I shook his hand! I went down to TH, met up with fellow field hand Brendan and we saw him at the Fair Grounds. Afterwards, we canvassed for 5 hours. I have never done this before and I am pretty shy (I can stand up in front of a classroom full of college kids but this made me really nervous!). It was a lot of fun. We were able to talk to some undecided folks and/or folks who have received distortions and misinformation (his position on the 2nd amendment, for example). There were times (only a few) where prejudice played a role. As a woman of color, I tried to follow Obama's example and conduct myself with the dignity that is only possible when you are no longer afraid and it is the other person who looks small, hopefully in their own eyes. When Obama walked into the Fair Grounds, he shook hands with a white gentleman in his 50's with a goatee and white hair. I was watching closely as this man did everything he could to hold back his tears and how deeply he respected Obama. I was terribly moved. This is real. I cannot wait to get back out there again.  

Here's a quick update for you guys as to what I've seen going on in Indiana.

We had a registration picnic today in the Downtown Indianapolis area. I think the number of new registrants was around 3O people or so, which is good, but not great. The exciting thing was that our picnic was next to a community football field that had a game going on. I would estimate the crowd at a little over 100 people, and there wasnt a single McCain supporter to be found.  It was extremely motivating!

My family lives down in Evansville, bordering Kentucky on the Ohio River, and is by far the most conservative densely populated part of the state. I dont know anyone who is actually working down there, but when visiting my family I have only seen a grand total of TWO McCain signs/bumper stickers... and this also was a place where W's were abundant. I have seen a few Obama yard signs, not a lot though.

I have a friend here in Indianapolis that is housing an Obama staffer that is the official number cruncher for the state of IN. Obviously, he couldnt tell me any of the specifics, but he said that they are quite pleased with how the numbers are looking, and that IN is "VERY competitive". 

All in all, I'm feeling very optimistic about IN going for Obama. There is obviously still quite a bit of work to do here, and a lot of staunch conservativism to overcome... but if IN goes blue, surely it wont be the only one!!!

Kyle B.

 

in Ohio.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/6/225353/6657/712/588141

Isn't Ohio Governor, Strickland, a dem ? If voter suppression is one of the repug shenanigans, is Obama camp aware of it ? If yes, how are they fighting it ?

amk

Al:

Don't forget to factor in the critical importance of same day registration come November 4th in New Hampshire. Having spent time there in 2004, the potential battle to permit the college students living in New Hampshire (whose parents hail from safer blue states across the northeast) to register and vote on election day is immense. Those four electoral votes will hinge on a few thousand vote margin one way or the other and making thousands of these college students made aware of their right to vote in New Hampshire (and not in New York or Massachusetts where their parents may live) is critical. Once they find out that they can vote, every polling place must be protected against the numerous tactics of voter suppression employed by the Republican operatives -- the students are often told that if they vote in N.H. instead of their parents home state they will lose their financial aid or be prosecuted etc. It is ugly, but if out organized it could be pretty.     -- EDR (Election Day Registration.

I wonder why is Arkansas written off in most of the analyses I've seen of the electoral possibilities. Admittedly, it only has 6 votes, but that is more than New Mexico, Nevada, or New Hampshire. All of its state elected officials, 75 of 100 legislators, both US senators, and all but one US represenative are Democrats AND the Clintons still hold great sway. In most state races Republicans don't even field a candidate.

The only reason I can see why it isn't at least at least pink if not blue is that Obama has NO presence here at all. No field office. No organizers. Nothing that I have seen. It seems like a relatively easy pickup is being discounted while a state like MO is being lavished with attention that is much less likely to produce results.

@Micheline: re Latino voters-I think this is partly generational. Some older Latino voters have had a long standing loyalty to the Clintons; perhaps that reluctant transition is what you are seeing. I hesitate to make too many generalizations, as most folks I know are pretty enthusiastic supporters. I may have some additional thoughts after our voter registration efforts in this community.

@Karen Desmond: yes, that is what I was asking, as I want to make the time I have as effective as possible. i was at the opening of the Northern California headquarters on Thursday (thanks Fieldhands for the great pix!), and did sign up for a weekend to NV; and I agree that phonebanking may be the most effective use of my time; but I have a real heart for voter registration. Thanks for the thoughts!

Carol in Houston - I've been facing the same decision.  I'm a precinct captain in the DFW area and I feel like I've taken on responsibilities here, but the real battle for the White House is going to happen somewhere else.  Do I play my part of the field, or do I move where the action is?

I'm jealous that you can leave home for two months.  At best I'll be able to go 2 weeks.  Go get 'em.

I just reviewed a video of McCain's speech at the GOP Convention.  No flag pin.

Corporate Media, swing into action !

Your DKos diary is great, and it was really helpful information for me as I'm headed that way soon myself.

I'm in Camp Obama training this weekend in Sacramento, and I will be spending as much time as I can in NV.  We have 160 people training, all of whom have committed to at least two weekends in NV or the equivalent amount of phonebanking.  As part of the training, we made 3,000 calls into NV in about an hour, and we got some great stories to share from the experience.

I'm finding the Nevaaaada (Never, Never say Nevahda) people easy to talk to on the phone, even the McCain supporters have been polite, and I found Obama supporters in the over-70 independent demographic.

The one man I spoke who was genuinely undecided agreed with me that the upcoming debates will be a great way to compare the candidates side by side.

@ank @ 11:49

I have read that the Obama campaign does have a legal team that is working on voter suppression/fraud as part of voter registration efforts.  The higher the turnout the more difficult it is to steal an election.  Ohio 2004 and Florida 2000 were text book cases of outright fraud in some areas, "caging" lists, GOP challenges to non white voters to small details such as few voting machines in minority areas.

Huffington Post had an article on this topic 08/04/08.  It seems somewhat pessimistic to me.  2008 is just not 2004.  You tube came on line in February 2005 and has made an enormous change in the entire political scene, including vote suppression.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/art-levine/beyond-mccains-smears-can_b_116...

Good Morning Fieldhands...

Jed needs some financial Fieldhand love...well he's humbly asking for financial love from all of his readers...I'm asking the Fieldhands...and I hope it's OK with Al...

Jed has a Paypal link...if you feel inclined, click some ducats his way...

Thanks!

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

DKos Diary & sourced site, Ballot Access News:

 

On September 5, the ballot-qualified Constitution Party of Montana submitted its presidential elector candidates to the Secretary of State. The party informed the Secretary of State that its electors are pledged to Ron Paul for president and Michael Peroutka for vice-president. Ron Paul was aware that the party planned to do this, and has said that as long as he can remain passive and silent about the development, and as long as he need not sign any declaration of candidacy, that he does not object.

 

So, if it's already close in Montana, and there's both Barr (Libertarian) and Ron Paul (Constitution Party) for those who lean libertarian-independent, this could be a significant tipping point for Montana.

amk

Thanks, amk!

Here's the link (duh...)

http://www.jedreport.com

 

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

"Sean Quinn has nailed it over at 538. It's the point of her speech at the RNC and her purpose at the McPalin rallies. I hope Chicago has read this, and the rest of the Left Bloggers as well. And I'm not "Chicken Little-ing" but I am worried about the media and the Right turning her into America's New Sweetheart with Rick Davis and Steve Schmidt's admitted intention of running out the clock before anyone looks behind the curtain of the Wizard of Az.

"Saturday, September 6, 2008

On my home page today (Sunday) I discuss the Gallup Swing Vote Poll which I believe almost guarantees an Obama win.

http://stephencrosehome.blogspot.com

 

Those from Nevada might comment. But I wonder if McCain's position on supporting Yucca Mtn. as a nuclear waste dump could make the difference in nudging the state to Obama.

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong about this, but I'd like it if people were more careful about the use of terms that sound like vote(r) fraud. Vote(r) fraud is when the *voter* tries to defraud the system by doing something like voting twice. *Election* fraud means doing stuff like programing voting machines to reverse vote tallies, caging, printing ballots on paper where the chad doesn't dislodge in democratic districts, etc. The reason why the distinction is important is because the Republicans use the fear of *voter* fraud to justify overly stringent identification policies and challenges at the polls.

Yesterday a large group from "Southern Illinoisans for Obama" canvassed in Missouri, a potential swing state this Fall. The office there was very well organized and busy.  We don't expect Cape Girardeau (hometown of Rush Limbaugh) to go Democratic, but there is decent support for Sen. Obama. We only encountered one strong Hillary supporter, who stated she would prefer Hillary, but she is definitely voting for Obama.  We had several requests for Obama yard signs and noted the individuals on our sheets.  This will counter the 8 McCain signs I saw in our assigned subdivision. Hee! Hee! 

Leaf peeping time is coming to New Hampshire - so along with specified trips for GOTV - there will be many tourists in NH.  Please, if you or your friends are visiting, bring Obama material: buttons, decals, literature to give out.  Also, reading EDR warnings about misinformation given to college students, a piece on what he's explaining about having college students vote in NH if they come from 'blue' states would be important.

I know we all need a bit of vacation time, but if you're going to be in NH for the Leaf Peeping ( late Sept. - late Oct.) please think Obama too.  Thanks.

Especially since this is a fabulous oppoprtunity to send Jeanne Saheene (sp?)  to DC as Senator - and send Sununu back to NH!

OT but I just published my first diary over on Daily Kos if you want to check it out and comment. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/7/125232/1701

I have lived in NV though now am in NYC. There is no question that if Yucca can be tied to McCain and Barack's opposition is made  crystal clear, it could turn the state, if it needs turning.

Stephen - The nuke waste dump issue in fact helped Obama win central and northern Nevada during the caucuses there in January. Bob Fulkerson - the founder of the movement against that dump more than 20 years ago - did media appearances and conference calls slamming Senator Clinton's murkier position on the issue. I think it was the factor that most led to Obama winning more delegates out of Nevada even as the press reported that Clinton "won" the state (based almost exclusively on greater Las Vegas results).

Jed of Jed Report - who posts from Nevada - writes that the dump issue will win the state for him.

And now there's another factor at play in Nevada: a huge drop in tourism, on top of a slowdown in construction jobs on the strip, has hit greater Las Vegas much harder than almost any other part of the country. Unemployment is rising fast and a sense of economic panic is setting in. That's going to more than likely be good for Obama, and especially if, as I suspect, his campaign will exploit it in ads and other messaging.

But as far as the nuke dump issue goes, Obama established his street cred (or should I say "country road cred"?) back in January.

Well, Gallup and Zogby are now out for the day, and they show McCain with the advantage. Naturally, the Chicken Littles are out in force over at DKos and elsewhere, but I think that this just offers Obama supporters and the campaign reasons to work harder. After all, it's when we're down that the most amazing work is done.

 

Then, there's a fracas over Obama's comments about his "Muslim faith" this morning. That was definitely a terrible, terrible gaffe - and while I would like to think that the American people will view it in context, I can't help but be pessimistic.

 

The corporate media is going to try as hard as they can to sink our candidate, so we're going to have to double our efforts and get out on top of these gaffes aggressively. It certainly doesn't help his campaign to have distractions like this swirling around.

In addition to GOTV, One-Step Early Voting in Iowa begins on Sept. 25--register AND vote for Barack all at once.  Excited that you've moved us to the "very safe blue" category, we are ready to Vote for Change!

It's good to note that not being able to travel to another state to register voters isn't a bad thing.  There are many states, like Washington, where the down ticket needs all the help it can get.  Governor Gregoire is not going to have a cake walk even though WA is 'safe' for Obama.  Rossi has a huge bankroll with which to run against her.  If he gets elected, he'll do to Washington State what Bush has done for the U.S. 

People who can't travel are very, very needed as volunteers for the entire ticket in other states as well.

Suzy Shore said:

 

Also, reading EDR warnings about misinformation given to college students, a piece on what he's explaining about having college students vote in NH if they come from 'blue' states would be important.

 This part about misinformation on campus is very important for anyone registering on student/campus areas. Last night alone I had 3 or 4 people say they couldn't register to vote in Michigan in case their health insurance was revoked or they didn't have a Michigan driver's license to vote in the state, etc.

Since I knew the facts about those situations, I was able to correct them and get a couple of them to register or change their address to Michigan.

The Michigan Democratic Party and the Obama campaign had their lawyers spend a few weeks reviewing laws and they found there are essentially no ill effects when switching your voter registration address. There are some Republican congressmen and organizations trying to say otherwise in an attempt to lower registration rates on campus.

The MDP gave us a handy sheet with the information, and I typed it up since I couldn't find an online version:

http://jasonarewhy.com/mi-studentvoting.html

Anyone in Michigan feel free to print that and use it for yourself - and that first one about insurance companies is true everywhere. 

 

SOURCE: Barack Obama and Bill Clinton to finally have a meal together. Pair expected to break bread in Gotham City on Thursday. Former President knew Obama was planning to be in New York for 9/11 related events and made the invite.........Following up on previous plans to get together. http://thepage.time.com/

Yeah, no kidding about the Chicken Littles at dKos.  I've never been able to figure out why so many people over there shout out "work like you're 20 points down!!" all the time, and then when they get 2 or 3 points down, they fall apart and act like it's over.  That's a pretty good reason NOT to act like you're 20 points down.  I prefer "work like you can make a difference."

Now Willie Brown is CL-ing!

http://thepage.time.com/

On this same page that Melissa referenced above...Mr. Brown says that because of Gov. S.P. the Dems are now on defense and that's when we lose!

And now McShame says Obama hasn't "been to any countries in this hemisphere"...does he REALLY want Obama to go to a foreign country again?  Of course, he also wants Obama to denounce and reject Moveon.org for the General "Betray Us" from last year...

Again...if we allow ourselves to get distracted and/or allow the Repubs to define this election as personalities instead of about the issues...

then we are sunk!

Focus, people, focus!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'll pass out the cajones while Al gives out the shots!

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Okay. I'm 51 years old, a Mom of two. Always a Democrat but never got involved. Like so many others, I was ignited by Obama's campaign. So I donated like crazy, went to a Unite For Change party, read a lot, but hardly dipped my toe in the big, scary waters. Fast forward to last week. I'm sitting at my computer, seething over the media's coverage of Palin when the phone rings: it's the local Obama campaign asking me to volunteer! Could I help out with a booth at a little street fair here in Kitsap County and register new voters? I immediately begin to think of all the reasons why I couldn't...and then I heard myself say "Yes." Yes. So, off I went. I helped register at least 25 voters. I met a woman from Sweden who became a citizen and told me "The America Obama talked about in his speech---that's why I came to this country." She signed up to volunteer. There was also the Mom who bought a button and came back a little while later holding her cell phone: "I just talked to my son in Iraq; he said he wants a button, too!" She bought another. And there was the Asian American woman, a mother, who said she had been up all night watching Newt Gingrich on C-SPAN. She was enraged and said she didn't know what to do. I told her she wasn't alone...I've finally realized what this campaign for change has been about all along: each of us leaving our comfort zones to reach out to our fellow citizens and together say "Enough!" One little street fair, one sunny Saturday, one volunteer who almost didn't make the leap but is glad she did.

Lolo,

Here’s what I suggest you do. If you are willing to reveal a little more info about yourself in terms of being in the IDF so that people know you are for real and not a plant making stuff up that will help establish you. (I dont know how the IDF is organized. Do you have battalion numbers or names? Can you affirm without identifying yourself?)

(1) You need to monitor the Republican Jewish Committee (RJC) sites to refute inaccurate information about Obama, which of course you will do with politesse, staying on point, and accurate links. There is a gigantic hasbara operation going on tying Israel with McCain and demonizing Obama as a Muslim, etc. The RJC in this country is the one leaning most heavily on the main media.

(2) Check out http://JewsOnFirst.org for the arguments being given about Obama to the conservative American Jewish community. JewsOnFirst is fighting this battle, and fighting the RJC.

(3) Read this from The Forward, “The Jewish Crew That Helped Pave the Way to John McCain’s Nomination”

http://www.forward.com/articles/14105/

(4) Spend comment-time on the right-wing sites identifying yourself, refuting arguments, and why you support Obama: why its so important for Canadians as well who the Prez of the US is, should you care to identify yourself as living in Canada. Ignore the flaming you will get in return. Mostly ignorant and misinformed JDL infants hurling it night and day. Someone will read your words, and they will matter.

(5) McCain garners support from the Pro-Israel extremist right-wing here in the US because of support for bombing Iran, and, now, possibly igniting war with Russia via Georgia. Your experience as an Israeli and member of the IDF is invaluable.

Check out these sites daily (left and right) to stay abreast of the latest info and latest propaganda, pro and con. Some sites change hourly or daily, some whenever there is news:

http://muzzlewatch.com

http://www.antiwar.com

http://philipweiss.org

http://www.meretzusa.org/ (L/R)

http://tonykaron.com

http://pajamasmedia.com (R)

Here’s an example from pajamasmedia of how history is skewed and being rewritten by these groups. Compare:

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/ari_fleischer_leading_jews_out/

versus what history tells us actually was:

http://www.earlyamerica.com/review/summer97/secular.html

The insertion of religion into US politics and foreign policy has become loathsome, in my view. A pox on all their houses: Christian, Jewish, and Islamic. Who would have thought that the USA could sell war against a country because it was Islamic? But they did, in contravention of what distinctly created the US Declaration of Independence (see the inserted “Article XI from the Treaty of Tripoli” in the last link above. Fleischer lied that “the United States’ first wars [were] against Islamic fundamentalism.”). Fleischer was a presidential press secretary with an agenda.

http://littlegreenfootballs.com (R)

(6) Point is: contribute your point-of-view. Be prepared for ugly doubting of who you are.

I was a the circus with my kids yesterday and got all teary eyed when they sang the National Anthem...thinking about the history of our country and the history about to be made.  And then I got this huge set of butterflies - what if it doesn't happen?   I won't go on and use this board as a therapy session but,  I tell ya, I really don't know how the folks running and their campaigns do it.  They have more effective ways to deal with worry than I do!

 

I just hate the fluctuations in the polls.  I mean part of it is wanting the polls to move the way I want them to but more than that I just hate the notion that Americans so damn fickle that they swing back and forth with the wind.  Anxoius to see some new state polling.

 

Really good investigative article in the Seattle Times today on Palin.  She really is Cheney in a skirt.

 

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2008163431_palin070.html

Who cares what distractions McMaverick throws at Obama? There's going to be a new one every day between now and election day. Not talking about the issues is the point of the MCain campaign. 

And let McCain have his bounce. He's been in the news 24/7 for an entire week. A post-convention bounce was to be expected. If the Obama campaign can keep on the offensive about the economy and just hammer away at it until November while continuing to tie McCain to Bush, he'll be fine.

btw - the "Muslim faith" comment is a non-starter. Go view the full quote in context. 

"BR" - If you have documentation or proof of the claim you submitted to the comments section here, please email it to me at narconews@gmail.com

Saying "I have it on absolute authority" doesn't cut the mustard for proof, and we've seen five examples in one week of how it backfires when people make claims about a candidate that later prove to be false.

The info you say you have is interesting, and if there were proof - documents, eyewitnesses, etcetera - there's probably a good story there. (And I'd put one of my best reporters on it if you have any leads to follow toward that.) But we're steering clear of unsourced rumors here.

Kathleen, do you speak Spanish? Spanish speaking phonebankers are always needed on the Obama phonebanking tool. You can call other states from home.

There are 2 new facebook groups than anyone can join: We are all community organizers http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=39955037712&ref=mf and Proud to be a community organizer http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=23593764283&ref=mf and the National Association of Social Workers (of which I am a member) has issued this press release in response http://www.socialworkblog.org/pressroom/index.php/2008/09/04/social-work...

I just got back from NH (went with Albany, NY for Obama). It was great. The Manchester office is staffed with incredibly amazing, competent, focused and cool people. The guy who "organized" us was an Obama Fellow turned Field organizer. One person mentioned Palin and he said "Please do not waste one second on the other side. I want you only to focus on the positives about your candidate." We knocked on doors. About 30 volunteers x 100 doors each x 2 days this weekend, I'm guessing. We came across less than 5 McCain supporters. Many people not home. A lot of Obama supporters, particularly in the poorer neighborhoods. NH has same day registration, but people must register in person at the county clerk's office. For this reason, the campaign had us targeting lists of already registered voters b/c volunteers cannot register people in their homes. Every time I went to a convenience store for water, I found many minorities who said "I love Obama, I have never voted before, how do I do this?" I suggested that the NH campaign target these places and take people to register or something. I will be back for leaf peeping! It's so true that taking action IS the way to deal with the anxiety. Everyone I know is now focused and motivated since the Palin announcement. She energized us too!

I was with a small team of 4 and together we came across very few McCain supporters. I'm not sure about the other 26 volunteers.

Much of the progressive blogoshpere is going crazy tonight at the new USA Today/Gallup poll that shows McCain up 10 points with LVs and 4 points with registered voters. Despite the fact that the poll was conducted over the weekend (bad time for Obama representation) and just after the GOP convention (worse time), it's naturally going to show an advantage for McCain.

 

I'm not one to scream outlier, and I do think that this poll is a reasonable estimate of McCain's convention bounce. This does not mean that we should panic - the numbers will stabilize over the course of the week, and the Obama campaign is just about to begin the final phase of their air and ground operations. Plus, it offers us a wonderful opportunity to start playing offense. During this week, I think the campaign has been playing one of those Cover 2 soft zone defenses, recognizing that McCain would gain anyway and that their job was to just give him his yards and prevent him from scoring a touchdown.

 

I think they've done that, and now, we have the ball back with 7:30 left in the 4th, and we're ready to drive down field for a score. This is the true test of our resolve - those of us who stick around through hard times are the ones we know are truly on board. It's time to separate the boys from the men and the women from the girls. This is motivation, not crisis. And since the numbers are a wake up call, they're great at preventing complacency and stagnation.

Great to hear tales from NH?  What the heck is leaf peeping?

 

I canvassed for the first time last weekennd and made phone calls this weekend since we were busy.  It's kinda funny because I've been terrified about doing it and now that I've started, I'm laughing at myself.  I mean, how difficult can it be, right?  OK, so nobody has been totally rude to me yet but I'm OK with it now.

Tara, "leaf peeping" is when people take a trip [or even just a drive] to check out the leaves changing colors in the autumn.  With the price of gas, good idea to multi-task!  :-)

LOL, Tara--leaf peeping is the act of going to see all the pretty colors of the New England trees in the fall (added perk for NH). And...the NH office also had motivational signs all over it, like "Don't trust the polls." and "59 days to victory!"

Well, I'm not going all CL but those USA Today numbers certainly have me jumpy.  I can deal with the 4% but what the hell gives with the 10%?  And if I read correctly, that is a double digit swing in a week.  What always makes me nervous is wondering if I am underestimating the stupidity of the American public to fall for gimmicks - Palin and McCain=change.

 

Here's hoping those numbers shift during the week.

Mikell Hagood

Down here in Georgia, we know have an uphill climb.  But we keep our feet on the ground and our clipboards in our hands.  My team here in Ward C of East Point registered or changed addresses for another 81 voters this weekend.  We are also phoning sporadic voters and new volunteers are signing up every day.  I am meeting more and more people who said they just registered last night or at a festival or in their apartment complex, etc.  And the African-American youth is starting to come around to our little campaign office like never before.  Our registration deadline is October 6th and our volunteer forces are growing and getting more serious. I stay away from the distractions like the media and rely on trusted blogs like the Field to be my noise filter.

The other night I commented about meeting the late Walter Rodney's widow.  I didn't do justice in explaining who Rodney was.  He was not just a socialist writer and historian from Guyana.  His best known work, "How Europe Underdevoped Africa," is still one the best books of its kind.  It puts Africa's underdevelopment and Europe's development in perspective.  I forgot to mention that after living in East Africa for several years in the late sixties and early seventies, Rodney and his family returned to Guyana to help organize the people against the repressive Forbes Burnham government.  Rodney was later assasinated by a bomb and many believe the CIA backed government was responsible.

His widow carries on his work with an annual Walter Rodney conference in Atlanta and she also teaches--using his book--in the Public Health department at Morehouse School of Medicine.

Again, I was thrilled to meet such a noble and courageous woman and have her on my team.

Low Information Voters create poll bounces.  And we have a lot of LIVs in the good ol' US of A.  Of the states with an average IQ measurement of below 100, all but 3 (Wisconsin, Michigan and Oregon) voted for Bush in 2004.  OTOH, only one state with an IQ average of 100 or higher voted for Bush (Virginia). 

It's a self fulfilling prophecy of low quality schools as a result of disinterest in education by Republican administrations which then assures them of future Republican voters. 

But this year will be different than 2000 and 2004 because there are just too many pissed off educated people who are registering for the first time and taking their country back.  As Barry says, "Not This Time!!" 

 

 

Some people might ask why Sarah Palin is the most popular governor in the U.S. Here are a few reasons: This week every Alaska resident will receive a $1200 check, an oil-gas rebate from the oil companies, man, woman or child. Soon every resident, every member of the family will receive a check for $2000 plus, just for being an Alaska resident. So, if you are a family of 5, you get $16,000 just for having an Alaska address. Additionally you pay no state taxes. You have access to a state run low cost railroad and ferry system. Every child in the state receives healthcare, without exception under their state run health care system, and state run nursing homes.

 

In addition there is an extensive state public health system for adults, and a well funded educational system K-12 to university, with low tuition for university students. This, ostensibly in one of the reddest of states is the most socialistic of any. So you can see why they are anxious to drill some more. If Murkowski hadn't bought a stupid airplane against the wishes of the legislature, Sarah Palin would never have been governor, in a socialistic state. These Republican governors get elected because they can deliver the goods,and get federal money to boot. Who said Republicans believe in small government?

Someone upthread asked if Obama was running a Yucca Mountain ad.

This ad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX-ed4_Km2Q

 

Has been running in Nevada since early July.

Obama always does better when he is down in the polls.  I don't want anyone getting lazy because he's up.  Being down has always made his supporters work harder and give more.  Hopefully McCain's supporters will be made lazy by these polls.

I trust them about as much as I trust a crackhead taking my cash deposit to the bank.

Ed taking it to Palin hard today in PA. The gloves are coming off.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/08/rendell-if-i-was-palin-yo_n_124879.html