The Map (Again)

This map should give some special excitement to the folks in Omaha, NE, where their CD's electoral vote doesn't seem so small or insignificant anymore!

-fink

Game On!

No time to fret; time to fight!

Al, myDD uses the most recently released poll to decide who is winning each state.  At least that's what Jerome did a few months ago. It might have changed, but I doubt it.

Definitely need more post convention data there...I'm anxious to see some.  Just the one Ras poll there and it varied greatly from the pollster.com average.  One might suspect that it's an outlier given that the numbers in NV and CO have not changed significantly post convention.  NV is still favoring McCain ever so slightly and CO favoring Obama.

I can't imagine that there is any real threat here in WA...I mean if WA falls, it's a McCain landslide.  Howard Dean is here today for a little speech and then they are sending everyone out canvassing.  I have to do some work around the house so will miss it  but will canvass our neighborhood a little later.

Nate's info says statistically, it'll be hard to win CO while losing OH but so much about this race is historic.  And I have little faith in OH to actually count their votes.

I generally feel better about things today as the MSM message seems to be finally coming around to the McCain and Palin are lying meme and Palin is not ready.  Some good posts over on Kos with quotes from various sources.  My favorite would have to the AP one since their bias has been so clear all along.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/13/0229/89587/290/596683

We have 3 weeks to the end of registration and 7 weeks until the election. Democrats are  on high alert while there is still time to effect voter registration and GOTV activities. Palin has increased the energy on the Rebulicans side - but over the next 7 weeks McCain/ Palin will look worse and worse - ultimately demoralizing the Republicans while the Democrates will only build in enthusiasm for Obama and the conviction "no way, no how - No McCain/Palin"

Considering the difference in the media message at the end of this week compared to the message coming off the Republican convention last week, it is difficult to see this as anything other than McCain's high water mark.  Subpoenas are being issued in Alaska, McCain lying is now being literally said on front pages in the news, and his only currency was his reputation as a reformer and an upholder of integrity in government.  He has squandered that currency.  I think the map looks good considering how rapidly the narrative is changing.

My thoughts include Omaha since I have family from there.  I really believe Obama will take it even though he is down 4% in the last poll I've seen.

I'm also curious how people whose income is tied to Offut AFB will vote.

Al, will we get a clearer picture on how the registrations are going in purple/red states since college students have returned to school? I know Nevada had huge increases in voter registration while I was there (about 6-700 in a weekend), but i'd love to see more numbers.

And I love this postitve stance on being down in the EV count.

JUST ONE STATE, PEOPLE!

(ok, back to phones.)

***apologies, Al, slightly OT***

Hi, San Diego Feildhands--  I have been unable to figure out how to use the wonderful social networking site Susan Kitchens developed(have never used one before, have little time available online in the course of a day), so I'm going to go old-school and post here as time is a wastin'-- please email me: sarahcupcake@yahoo.com.

I'm working to organize a Nevada trip, would love for it to be San Diego fieldhand based.

Thanks!

(And/or New Mexico as well)

There's a call challenge here--top 5 callers get the chance to meet Barack or Joe whenever they return to IA.  Targets are undecided voters and there's a campaign specifically for women to call undecided women.  Early voting starts 9/25, register and vote (One-Step Early Voting, register and vote at the same time) will be out in force for canvassers then.  Looking for to BaRACKING Iowa again!

BTW, has anyone checked outthis out?

http://womenagainstsarahpalin.blogspot.com/

"On Wednesday, September 3, we sent out an email to 40 friends and colleagues asking them to respond to Sarah Palin’s candidacy as Vice President of the United States. They forwarded the letter to their friends across America. To date, we have received more than 120,000 responses from women of all ages and backgrounds. Below are their voices."

I would love to steal an EV in Omaha, but I wouldn't put money on this.  Bush won really solidly in both 2000 and 2004 so this is really an uphill fight.  I would't be at all surprised to see Obama get within five but I would be shocked if he won in a close election.  I'm pretty sure that NM, CO and NV would slip first in which case Obama wins if he holds the blue states and gains Iowa . . .

The Republicans have a serious Hispanic problem this year because of their immigration demogugery and registration numbers indicate that Nevada might be ready to flip even without Obama significantly improving on Kerry's performance with members of each party.  

03:00 am Eastern Australian Standard Time 14^th September, 2008

A long overdue update on grass-root activism in Australia. (Long term Field Hands may recall some of my earlier updates and words of encouragement during those early outbreaks of ‘chicken-little-itis’.)

Tonight a significant victory for the forces of grass-root activism and transparent and accountable government occurred in the City of Sydney. The Lord Mayor of Sydney, Clover Moore MP (she also holds the State Government seat of Sydney) and her independent team of Councillors were returned with an absolute majority. At all booths, including our heartland ones, our primary vote increased. In the primary vote for the Lord Mayor of Sydney, Clover’s tally was well over 50% so there is no need to go to preferences.

In the south of the City (which is not part of the State Government seat of Sydney), we experienced primary gains in the range of 19% - 35% . These areas were Labor heartlands and the constituents in this area were most concerned four years ago that Clover could not manage her State seat as well as take on the challenges of being the Lord Mayor of Sydney. In the vote for Councillors, Labor lost two quotas - one to the Clover Moore Independent Team and the other to the Greens. The Greens are now the second largest grouping in Council. Both Liberal and Labor (Australian mainstream parties) have now been reduced to a rump.

This result means the Lord Mayor does not need to use a casting vote to move her platform forward. It also means the citizens of Sydney agree with the new direction our city has taken over the last four years.

Not only did I have the privilege of announcing each booth’s return at the Clover Moore Tally Room & Volunteers Party with my dear friend Larry Galbraith churning the numbers as our scrutineers called in the raw numbers, but I also directed and managed the rollout of the street poster campaign across the City. (If you Obama dudes want some tips on targeted postering and how to perform a community service at the same time, get in contact through Al.)

Now to bed - it been a long few weeks with the new job and all.

Keep heart and work hard.

[Manly]BondiBeachViews

What happened ?

amk

I just checked my email and there was a flurry of emails from local folks who have never done this before talking about canvassing and voter registration.  It was heartening to see.  One meeting that I hosted using the Obama website and the ripple effects have been HUGE.  I also sent out the Knockout Punch post, Al.  You never know what impact your actions may have.  If you are able to recruit other volunteers, your actions multiply exponentially!  Use the website and schedule a meeting to rally folks today!  There are so many people out there who would love to help but just need to be asked and given the opportunity.

http://www.johnmccainrecord.com/mclobbyist/

I like this site and this idea. It gives voters a chance to read and break down in their minds what lobbyists mean to their future. Pass it around to those who may need a little more information about who McCain and Palin's are really fighting for!

P.S. Al, great breakdown...

amk - I don't know where you got the idea - you certainly didn't get it from me - that any governor or politician can put his state "in the bag" for a presidential candidate, unless he or she are on the ticket (and even that's no guarantee: just ask John Edwards, Al Gore, Jack Kemp, and Lloyd Bentsen).

Whoever told you that was talking out of the wrong side of his corpus.

How wonderful will it be if we can win without OH and FL, given the crap that went down there the past two election cycles.  And now we see it can and will be done.  Bill Richardson could end up being the most important person in this election - glad he was so enthusiastic about Barack!  His approval ratings aren't great, but he did win reelection with over 65% of the vote a couple of years back.  McCain does come from a neighboring state, but so did George Bush.  Democrats have a large registration advantage in the state.  There's a lot of evangelicals who could listen to Palin's siren song, and of course a lot of Catholics who could listen to the church higher ups who are telling them that it's a sin to vote for a pro-choicer.

Nevada is the other best chance to flip, and that's where Field Hands might make a huge difference.  McCain didn't even consider the state worthy of contesting in the primary, and Romney and Paul both finished ahead of him.  Then again, he's spent tens of thousands of dollars in the state craps tables, so there's that!

I think the polls are going to show VERY incremental changes over the next few weeks' in Barack's favor.  Not to the extent that it will be outside of the margin of error in a lot of states, but I think we'll go back to seeing his 4-5% national advantage by the first week of October.  Gallup has gone from 5% to 4% to 3% to 2% in the last four days.  He's been inoculated against most of the bad stuff that the GOP wants to throw at him thanks to Hillary.  McCain and Palin are gaffe-fests waiting to happen.  I'm feeling good today!

Hey all - So in reporting back from the field, what is considered appropriate for this public forum?

What is? Personal experiences, new voter registration numbers in a certain time period and a certain set place, responses one is getting on the phone or door to door, that sort of thing.

What's not? Internecine battles, armchair quarterbacking, rants about "what others must do."

For site issues or problems logging in please direct all inquiries to narcosphere@gmail.com.

While Al will forward comments regarding technical issues to us, the best and quickest way to get a hold of us is through the email above.

Thanks!

Dave and the tech team

I would be very cautious about talking about any kind of strategy that you might have heard, but definitely things like "A lot of the undecided voters I talked to are concerned about X issue" would be good to know.

I guess you hit a nerve over on DKOS there, Al, because folks are still stinging from your diary of last week, and whenever I post a link to The Field I get both mojo and arguments that you are the 'concern troll's concern troll.'  There's a lot of excitement over energy going into the 527 ads, I liked the PP one and I didn't really like the DoW one but I think your point is well taken - they might cheer up some progressive bloggers, but won't affect the outcome of the election.  But what do you think about the Obama campaign's new site, mclobbyist.com ?

during the veep speculations, I was given the impression he could swing MO and other mid-western states. Also, I thought NM was in favor. But then, as a non-american, what the hell do I know ?

amk

I will be doing three voter reg drives at the Spanish and Bi-Lingual masses at my Catholic church this weekend.  I told the priest that I am making up for all the services I missed during the summer.  I will post a comment report once I am done.

Colorado voter reg is making a big difference.  If we can register enough new Dems and Obama supporters, we can counter the wingdings in Colorado Springs and other conservative pockets in our state.

So even if your area is bound to support the Dems, registering extra voters can make a difference overall on election day.  It could be a close one in Colorado.  But we, the Obama campaign, is doing their best. I think my county has 20 teams of voter reg out this weekend - and we are just a small county. That's huge.

According to our Secretary of State's webpage, our registration deadline is 28 days before an election (I can also testify that this restriction was in effect for the "caucus" [party-run primary here] and was probably enough to cost Obama the win here on Super Tuesday, but that's a different issue entirely).

I'd actually recommend that since you say that it's not that far a drive from where you are now to New Mexico (does that mean you live near the border?) I think you should drive up here and fly to a different battleground state like Virginia (to see whether or not Obama's been successful in registering African Americans and students to turn a typically red state blue) and then come back to New Mexico to get a feel for how Obama is doing in registering the latino vote and the dormant student vote here (particularly in spots like Las Cruces [home of NMSU], Albuquerque [home of UNM] and to check out the northern part of the state to see if Obama has been able to register the high Native American population [which might also fortell whether Obama can do well in some dark-horse states like Montana, South Dakota, and North Dakota)

The fact that the electoral map and all the polls and betting sites are favoring McCain right now is fantastic news for the Obama campaign, because it gives them a chance to do a couple of things:

1. First of all, it's a lot easier to fight back when you're down. Because the MSM is largely focused on the other guy, if you land a few hard punches, they will begin to resonate. And since you're down, you don't have to worry about holding back - if you're getting less attention than the front-runner, you can run under-the-radar, state-specific attack ads and have a strong local impact nationally hidden. Obama has been using a lot of targeted, local attack ads, and I think they've been pretty effective. Now, he can unleash a whole new wave in key states. Specifically, he is free to release Spanish language ads that savage John McCain on immigration and utterly destroy him on the economy.

2. It prevents supporter complacency. The public polls are largely disregarded by the Obama campaign, because they have a much, much better tool: internals and registration numbers. Supporters and volunteers only have access to public polling information, and if they see Obama 10-20 points up, they are less likely to work with a sense of urgency. If he's 20 points down, they're unlikely to work much at all. Right now, with Obama down about 3 points nationally and 2-3 points down or up in the critical states, there is a ton of incentive to get volunteers to work. And they themselves know that their work will make the difference.

3. It positions John McCain as the front-runner. Why is this such a good thing? Because when you're the front-runner, the media is going to start taking a good, hard look at you and your policies. We've already started to see a bit of this, as McCain got hammered on The View and called out by his admitted buddies over at the AP! The more scrutiny he gets, the less that people are going to like him. And the more the focus on John McCain, the easier it is for Obama to make his case that we need fundamental change.

4. It masks Obama's true level of support. The people who answer polls are generally not part of Obama's 'base'. In fact, AAs, singles, Hispanics, and the young are less likely to answer polls than older, whiter, married voters. And if Obama's true level of support is masked, that means that we're going to be pleasantly suprised on election day. One thing I do want to sound off on, though: I don't buy the whole "cell-phone-only voters" argument (many people thought that would be a factor in 2004 - it wasn't, and the polls were largely right). In this cycle, pollsters are including cell phone voters in their samples. So there's not a bias against cell-only voters, but rather the underlying demographics that contain these cell-only users.

And as for the polls, I think that this is probably John McCain's high-water mark. This weekend will probably be very good for him, because weekends always are. But McCain at the height of his bounce still has not broken 50% (except for the flawed Gallup LV) - bad news for him, as most of this new support is probably either soft or based on newfound enthusiasm of people who would have voted for him anyway.

And I'm not big on screeching about "what Obama NEEDS to do", either. But I allow myself one caveat: I definitely think that he should run more Spanish language advertising. If he can increase his margin with Latinos this year, then he wins the election in a landslide. Not to mention that several of the critical states like CO, NM, NV and FL all have tons of Hispanic voters. The campaign already has Solis-Doyle; she wasn't great as a campaign manager for Clinton, but the one thing I have to admit is that she did a phenomenal job with Latino outreach and GOTV. If they put more Spanish ads up on the air and reduced that margin with Cubans in Florida, then I can see Obama getting 300+ electoral votes.

I think you mean MT.

Nah, people were mostly for Schweitzer because they (a) liked him, (b) would position the Democrats better in the rural west both this year and in the future.  It was never really about Montana in which he would have certainly helped but only has 3 EVs.  Sort of like Palin and Alaska - it is a bonus that she takes Alaska off the table, but that was not the reason for the pick.

As far as the map goes, I feel at this point that the states in blue on the map above plus NM are Obama's firewall (273 is enough to win).  That is the path to victory without OH, FL, VA or NV and represents Obama's best chance to win at this point.  Those four states are where Obama plays offense.  MO, IN, NC, ND, MT are still in play for now but will probably drop off the map between now and November as Obama concentrates on the most likley paths to 270 (of which there are still many even without those states).

It's MT not MO. MO is Missouri.  And MT is one of those states trending blue but that has a hard time voting Dem at the top of the ticket.  It may yet be in play.  There is just the Ras poll to go on.  Obama hasn't given up on it yet because Biden was there just the other day.

Wow, some fighting words coming in from the O camp today.  For all the encouragement for that, it still makes me nervous to see them going in for the character juggular.  Has the groundwork been sufficiently laid??

amk

I am most anxious to get reports from people on the ground in Ohio during the overlap period between registration and early voting; I believe this would be Sept. 30 to Oct 5.  It seems like this would be a great time to do voter registration drives, especially on college campuses, since you can send the new voter off to vote immediately.  So any Ohio folks, let us know what is happening there.

LoiusV,

I find the dKos response to Al's discourse on the Wolf ad interesting, given that there is a whole chapter in Marcos' new book talking about how narratives get off message and diluted when all the single interest groups start piling on. Well worth the price of the book just for that single chapter.

there is a lot to agree with in your comment. I definitely think it is easier to fight back with a slight perceived disadvantage in the polls.  Also much easier to motivate supporters to fight if they aren't sitting back thinking the battle is won.  But also, the McCain campaign has really overreached with its brief lead. In one of those many talking heads surrogate comments, a McCain campaign spokesman said 'The wheels are coming off the Obama campaign.'    If the wheels are coming off, then McCain should be pulling away into a commanding lead.  Sure, he pulled a cheap trick, and he got a bunch of fundamentalists excited, and rallied the base to a solid bounce. But that doesn't win him the election, and what McCain gave away to get that hasn't yet been measured.

From my experience canvassing today: anyone that thinks the Latino vote in areas other than the Cuban community is up for grabs is mistaken.  Latinos that I have canvassed are leaning solidly for Obama, and with enthusiasum.

Low info white males, however, are a different story.  Puerto Ricans, Dominicans, and Mexicans--solidly for Obama.

I met a Venezuelan family (newly arrived) that are undecided.  Yes, I kept my cool and told the man why I am supporting Obama--didn't mention US imperialism and the word 'vendepatria' once.  The man was polite and seemed genuinely undecided.

Al, we have what is known as the I-4 corridor.  The demographics have changed markedly from eight years ago.  This area is more hispanic, and browner--more solidly working class.

Today I hit a convieince store to gas-up.  Because of Ike's impact on refining capacity, prices have hit five bucks a gallon in various areas of the state.   Older white men at the store did not stick up for McLame when I let loose some snarky comments--and one young hispanic man rebuked Daddy Yankee for backing McLame.  This all happened in the space of five minutes--i knew it was going to be a good day.

It's hot as hell, and I am going out on my second leg of canvassing in about 15 minutes.

The general mood is pretty somber--and even the white folks that will support McLame aren't doing so ethusiastically.

Despite my generalization (based in cL fears), there are quite a few white follks that know McLame will not advance policies that help the working class or middle class.

Al, I think the polling here in Florida underestimates Obama's support in the state.  Cell phones are huge in this state.

Republican representatives (Feeney) are mailing themselves white powder--to smear leftwing activists, of course.

Al, having said this about my state--I have to say, Nevada and New Mexico might be better turf for you to observe during the wind-up of voter registration.

If I remember correctly, New Mexico was pretty damned close four years ago--and the marks agaisnt the Republican rightwing are much more clear cut at this point.

I have not given up on Florida, not by a long-shot--but the aforementioned states might be a better shot.  Just say'n.

 Here is encouraging news on Montana (MT) from the front page of Kos.

This is something else the moderates of this country should be aware of. The first paragraph is frightening.

Comments by the governor of Alaska in her first television interview, in which she said Nato may have to go to war with Russia and took a tough line on Iran's nuclear programme, were the result of two weeks of briefings by neoconservatives.

 I will not be able to post online (as a long term volunteer) while  I'm at my post so keep the faith, and continue to register voters, canvass, call and donate. I will be checking in and reading all your comments. I am a loud mouth (I am told) so it will be hard to not comment, you know everyone's entitled to my opinion, whether they want it or not (my husband's saying about me).

In this year, the fierce sense of urgency is upon us. I have hope we will prevail.

Obama/Biden'08

Proud Fieldhand Christi

I've been pleased to see the Obama campaign is not taking Minnesota for granted. They have 11 offices throughout the state at my last count, and are currently running the Heartland Change RV tour to visit small towns throughout the state, which I think is absolutely terrific. In Minnesota at least a lot of these rural areas have been traditionally Democratic, are are open to voting Democratic again - but only if we make an effort to reach out and show we are listening. The Obama campaign is doing this.

All of which is a lead-in for a shameless plug for my diary, Change comes to a small town in Minnesota, about the Heartland Change event in the town where my mom grew up and a lot of my family still lives. My aunt was able to attend the event and was thrilled at how many people showed up and how well it went.

This is the kind of thing that reassures me about Obama's ground game.

As a well-phrased and succinct response to cries of panic and demands for the lifeboats, consider the following:

"No, look, the Obama campaign has been an excellent campaign. Every campaign goes through stresses. Every campaign goes through difficult polls. The fact that the Republican convention was as successful as it was was basically out of the hands of the Obama campaign.

I think these polls will settle down close to even. And I think the real important thing is not to overreact, not to be caught in a back-and-forth with Palin, but to get your candidate rising above it.

In the '96 campaign, we stuck very strongly to making the arguments of what the country needed for the 21st century. And then on the air we very strongly made a contrast between the policy differences, what would happen to things like Medicare and Medicaid if the country went in another direction.

And I think it's important for the Obama campaign to stick to the policy differences, get back there, show the different lives that Americans would have. And it's not easy in this environment. I fully recognize that."

Anyone care to hazard a guess as to who said this?  The answer might well surprise you:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/11/politics/politicalplayers/main...

Morzer - A stopped clock (like Mark Penn) can still be right twice a day!

Christi,

Let us know if you need any help from other FieldHands.

Laura,

Tipped and Recc'd your diary. Loved the photos.

Spent my afternoon calling Obama supporters in western IL to
organize to travel to IA for door knocking. Not so successful but it's good to connect to other voters and supporters. All this was done from the Natl Volunteer Hdqtrs in Chgo. The phone banking concentrated on IL voters and getting them to battlegrounds

There is all kinds of activity for northern IL supporters. Many are traveling to WI and there are trips every weekend through Election Day. I know of some others who are going to OH and MI but most are pointed north.

I realize Mark Penn is not especially well-liked in these parts, and for good reason, but his argument seems logical to me.  Calling him a stopped clock is hardly worthy of you, Al. If you disagree with the man, call him out on the argument, but if he says something worth thinking about, give him some credit, please.

I think we may find that every time Palin gets in front of a camera it is a bad day for the McCain campaign.  Not every McCain supporter is an evangelical or a Neocon, and the extremity of her position is going to start weakening his support among the moderates.  She is the gift that keeps giving.  The saber-rattling is a bonus for a country that is more war-weary than we have ever been since Vietnam.

here in iowa, in rural parts i'm knocking, we're finding

the neocons have effectively put out their tax message--FOR NOW. (and those that even know that's not true or have heard it's not true rely on the 40 years of neocon rhetoric to hold up their socks) OR they are supporting O.

the undecideds are battling between their hearts and their fear, not really sure who to trust about what--but the face to face does seem to make a big difference!

and lots are on board and ready to go!!

I have done some digging and it seems that the owner of myDD wants to be a big time political op (like Joe Trippi). Warner is is fastest and best ticket to the top so he wants a democratic defeat in the fall (otherwise why would use the little credibility he has left to say that Obama should act more like Ron Paul and spam the internet). He is seeing that in 2012 Warner would be a major force to deal with while if Obama wins Warner might not get a shot at the big time.

Just my thoughts.

I agree with all the analysis that sees this as the natural high water mark of the McCain campaign. And that's very good news for Obama.

The problem is that McCain's crew can read polls as easily as we can.  They'll catch on pretty quickly that they will need another "game changer" to attain victory. And unlike Obama, McCain is pretty committed to a riverboat gambler approach to these things.

All of which is to say that I would be very surprised if McCain does not give us a few other, Palin-like surprises in coming weeks.

I'm reminded (unfortunately) of the 2007 Fiesta Bowl in which my beloved, heavily-favored OU Sooners lost in OT to Boise State, whose winning game plan was built around an endless supply of gadget plays.

Luckily I have more faith in the Obama campaign's ability to win than I do in my Sooners (at least when they're playing in a BCS bowl).

But expect McCain's game plan to look a lot like Boise State's.

Obama was in New Hampshire yesterday and today, and I was lucky enough to see him at last night's event, and volunteer for this morning's. I'm terrible at estimating numbers, but I would guess 1000+ people for the first event (squeezed into the Tech gymnasium). This morning's was in a park in the center of Manchester, and there must have been 3000+ people there. The lines began at 6:45, and there were still people filing in when I left at 11, as Barack was speaking. Of those 3000, 60% were probably from Massachusetts, and a good 30-40% asked me where they could go to volunteer or canvass later in the day, or checked willing to volunteer in the sign in sheets we were walking around with. People came from Mass, Rhode Island and Vermont, and everyone was as fired up as they come. That's one of the strengths of the campaign here, they haven't been afraid to bring folks in from the surrounding states, for weekend canvasses and phonebanking. It's an impressive operation, one that I would guess is pretty sorely underestimated.

Al, what do you mean by building a firewall around a State?

What is a rec'd list?

My vote for which State I would like to see you cover, based on comments in previous posts, is Nevada. 

My wife is out of town and I'm home with the kids this weekend, so I'm not able to be out helping in other ways.  But the phone contact tool at the BO website is really good - I've been able to make a few calls while playing with the kids!  It has a tool to invite others also, so I sent out an email to ten people to get them involved.  This is truly about more than this election, it's about building something to make greater changes once we win.

Here's the link if you want to use it or pass it on.

http://my.barackobama.com/n2n

I just returned from an all day phone banking at the Chicago downtown Illinois campaign headquarters.  It was CRAZY busy there today!  All the seats taken, and lots of good energy.  After well over a hundred phone calls (calling for volunteers to travel from Illinois to Iowa for canvassing) I can say it was time well spent.  I somehow ended up with a list of older white folks from small towns in the center of Illinois and they loved to chat!  They love their Barack and several of them say they pray for him every night.  They all wanted to go to Iowa but for most their age limits them.  

I will be back there again tomorrow - it is sooooo much better than sitting watching the news on tv or on the internet. 

Just a suggestion, if any of you can't get out to a campaign office and are not financially strapped, you may want to get the address of a nearby campaign office and send over a delivery of a few pizza pies.  I can assure you it won't go to waste.  Most want to keep calling versus stop and have to go out for something to eat.

Canvassed with DC for Obama for the first time.  They run a great startup operation with at least 100+ volunteers in their second week.  Taking people from DC to NoVA field offices and then sending them out to canvass.  I went to one office in a slightly Rep-than-normal NoVA district and they at least had 60+ people canvassing on Sept. 13th in this small town.  I hit 80 houses myself in some very hot weather and all the undecideds we touched were 35 O/50 U/15 M.  A LOT of undecideds haven't thought about the election yet and probably won't until the last minute.  As long as we target, target, target and get their issues down, than GOTV like mad, we've got a great chance to turn VA blue.  The campaign offices also strikes me as JetBlue like in that everything just seems to work and everyone is in a good mood.  Def will be canvassing most nearly every weekend until the election.  Gobama!

Thanks for the great diary about Ely! My sister and her husband a few miles from Ely so I'm forwarding it to her.  Hockey Moms for Obama!

Thanks for the kind words about my diary! Even though it was only on the Recent List for about 45 minutes before dropping off, I was pleased with the response to it, especially from people in Minnesota. Surprising how many people have been to Ely or have relatives near there! Campaign events like this can have a ripple effect far beyond just the town that was visited and that's what's so great about it. And I discovered that my aunt is enthusiastic about Obama, which I didn't know before. One voter at a time, that's how we win this.

@ Catherine,

I was phonebanking today, too! There were way too many seniors on my list. My oldest senior was 89 yrs old! It was fun talking to them, nonetheless, I really wanted to see if I could get anybody near the Quad Cities to get on over to IA. sigh.

Laura,

It was me who wrote about your diary. Somehow, I wasn't logged in and so my comment came up anonymous.

How cool - two Field Hands on the same project!  It was really busy when I first got there, slowed down around 2-3 and then seemed to be getting busy when I left after 5.  And yeah, I think most of them appreciated the calls and being asked to volunteer.  One lady I was sitting next to got a 70 year old lady who was adamant about wanting to canvas in Wisconsin next week!

I will ask for you tomorrow in case you are there.

Won't be there tomorrow. I liked the other place better; more daylight and less dungeon-like :(

May be phonebanking from the 'burbs. I am bringing newbies along w/ me and want to get them focused on action so may need a more conducive atmosphere...

This is the week in Ohio when you can BOTH REGISTER AND VOTE!

I believe this is new for the '08 election and I can't help but conlcude it will advantage the O Team more than McSame with both registration and GOTV.

Any Field Hands have the scoop on how this option will play out on the ground?

Keep up the great work!

I  Just got back from a day trip from here in NYC down to levittown PA.  I decided to put myself to good use -- too many weekends spent reading blogs.  Out of state volunteer turnout seemed good.  Reaction of the folks in the neighborhood was mixed. I went out and knocked on some doors. Hopefully it helped.

Steven,

My wife and I were out canvassing north of Orlando today (along the I-4 corridor).  It WAS very hot, and it seemed most people were not home, being a Saturday.

Our experience, and opinion is similar to yours in that this state is winnable, that the corridor has changed demographically since the last election, AND that the Latino vote is in NO WAY solidly in the Republican column this year.  The majority of those we contacted were Obama with the others undecided.

McCain spokesman Brian Rogers said this to the Politico about the increased media scrutiny of the campaign's factual claims: "We're running a campaign to win. And we're not too concerned about what the media filter tries to say about it."

Lovely.  Does this assist in endng the love affair the media has with McCain when his spokesperson effectively says, Screw you?

After this is all over, I would love to see some discussion about how we move past this as a country.  At what point did it become OK to just make shit up?

Canvassed my neiighborhood today and while I know the face to face is good - and enables voter registration at the same time - it is so inefficient with all those people not home, tracking down apt. #s, etc.  I tell you what I found most interesting was the fact that I now actually ENJOY it after dredding the whole idea before.

Hi Al and all,

I shared a few weeks ago that I canvassed for the first time.  Haven't done it since (but going out next weekend)  but am talking up O-man EVERYWHERE I go.  My Hillary-loving mom was at the car inspection station the other day and took some voter registration applications from some Obama folk canvassing and registered three people.  She's collected donations - her word :) - for Obama and mailed them in.

Would like to give a shout-out to the person who shared that Democracy for America is giving a canvassing and phonebanking training Wednesday.  My mom, aunt and I will participate and I emailed my family and friends about it.  Made up a flyer and my mom and aunt are taking them to church tomorrow.  I know that no one in my family and probably most in my mom's and aunt's churches have never actively worked for a candidate but who knows?  Maybe a few of them will call into the training, get motivated (and feel more confident) and take the canvassing or phonebanking plunge.  I'm certainly AMAZED by my mom's and aunt's enthusiam.

On another topic:

Tuesday's Record, the Bergen county newspaper, led with a story that 300,000 voters in NJ received notice erroneously that they are not registered to vote.

"State officials say a fact-checking system that compares motor vehicle records with state voter rolls is the culprit.  In cases where the two records did not match - such as dates of birth - voters received a letter this weekend saying they are not registered, when in fact they could be."

So anyone who received the notice must call their municipal clerks or Board of Elections to confirm their voter status.

I haven't seen any follow-up articles and I know NJ is supposed to go for O-man but still....  I suppose I could call the democratic hq in my area to see if they're on top of this.

Tara. saw your post a few days ago.  I'm working now and tend to miss Hardball (I still NEVER miss an AL post) so I'm glad someone is still doing Tweety summaries.  I did see it once this week though and I wonder if management has put a muzzle on him.  He interviewed surrogates of each camp and asked them the same question.  The repug person wouldn't answer the question (of course) and just veered off into mcshame talking points.  Tweety very quietly challenged the surrogate and didn't do his normal "ANSWER THE QUESTION" tirade.  Maybe he's feeling the pressure after all the repub whining about NBC and the public airing of his spats with Olberman.

Over at TPM, Reed Hundt asks how in 2000 Al Gore was abused for so-called "exaggerations," while McCain can unequivocally state to interviewers that he will do anything/ say anything he wants because he can--all in the name of getting elected. [Haven't we just seen this script???] Am I sensing an imminent ju-jitsu body slam? All the "honorable service" claptrap from the Obama campaign for months and months and months (could it be??): a set-up for when McCain over-reaches and the myth of his "integrity," "decency," and "honor"--all he's got--gets eroded by his true self--his "serial lying," "perversion," and "cowardice"? I agree with Al that "lying" is not a capital offense in politics, especially if you are a Republican politician or a Republican voter (it's just something that titillates the "base"). But, dishonorable disservice to a nation... now that is capital! My question is this: how hard can Obama go to make the case that not only can't we afford more of the same, but that McCain is intellectually, temperamentally, and morally "unfit" for the office of President? Can Obama go there really? It seems that the moribund body of McCain's campaign now has some momentum... which might be subtly or spectacularly turned into a serious take-down. 

Is anyone else smelling blood in the water?

Obama has the best campaign staff ever.  Ever.  He has handicaps that are being exploited, but the weakness and the profound savagry of McCains group will not sustain this bubble.  Obama will win with a comfortable EV number closer to 300 than 270.  You stay with the campaign and we will win.

Look past the weeping and gnashing of teeth.  Take you eyes of the swill be pushed by the bobbleheads and jackals of the press.  Who is cheating, lying, using mirrors and hoochie girls? And would a winning campaign do that?  They are buying ads in deep red states, is that the move of a team that just turned the corner?  Nope, its the move a loser, and a team that has internally conceded defeat.  Stay calm and watch....

Al, you said in an earlier post that the Obama campaign has a very good idea on where they want their volunteers to be sent due to their internal polling. But can anyone tell me exactly what this is?

I had a realization tonight that I only have the vaguest sense of how an internal poll is actually run, and I've been throwing around the term without a full understanding. And since I haven't been able to find any results on Google, can somebody give me tons of detail on these internal polls? Are they just samples of the 1s vs 4s on the call list? Or are they actual telephone interviews that have nothing to do with the voter banks? What's their usual sample size? Do any grizzled campaign veterans want to spill the beans on these mysterious internal polls for me? I'm curious about them, just like I am with exit polls.

And do any statistics or math majors here know the formula they use to call an election based on exit polls? I know it's probably in a journal somewhere, but I would only have access to abstracts. It's been awhile since my I've used my calculus, but there's a local situation that I'm interested in having the formula for. If anyone can help me out here, I'll buy you a couple of beers if you're ever around my neck of the woods!

Door knocking is NOT inefficient - time consuming, yes - but it produces the greatest dividend.

As evidenced by the massive swing to Clover Moore and her independent team in the results of our Local Government Elections last night, door knocking and canvassing produce the results. Of the comments we receive from constituents, time and time again they mention how much they like it that the Lord Mayor and/or her Councillors with a team of local volunteers take the time to knock on their door and listen to what they have to say. It is a major key to participatory democracy - face-to-face, one-on-one.

It is the time consuming activities that produce the best ‘bang for the buck’. Our street poster campaign is also time consuming and labour intensive, but gives us a most professional look and performs a community service at the same time (we lead them to the polling booths).

[Manly]BondiBeachViews

Brendan,

I was thinking the same thing after I just finished viewing the video of Obama's speech in New Hampshire today.  He was going directly at McCain on issues and calling him out on his "change" theme and every other distortion McCain has conjured up to keep his base.  And none of it was prefaced with his usual "...Senator McCain is a war hero and we owe him our gratitude and respect..."   Interesting, because I think Obama really can't honestly say those words anymore without it sounding as a false sentiment because of McCain's bold-faced lies and smears of Obama these past few weeks.  It begs the question, does being a POW trump everything?  Maybe not lies when you're running for President? 

Looks like the ground game is top notch there.

Al, Is Obama rallying the young voters by pointing what awaits them in the future with another repug admin with issues like draft, burden of budget deficit, education, job loss ? Remember, in primaries, it was the young voters who egged their parents (including SD's) to turn out for Obama. I have seen Obama speeches addressing only the middle class so far but not a direct rallying call to the young voters.

amk

I'm the volunteer team leader for a northern rural county in Ohio. We open an Obama office Thursday. It will be the first headquarters a Democrat has had in this county for 30 years.

We have a single Obama staffer, and have just begun the phone calls to identify supporters.

I think it's worth noting that we're not hearing about Palin, we're hearing about unemployment. It was difficult to hold the team together this past week: sheer panic, but I think we're past the worst of that.

Our office rent was donated by a local manufacturer, who is a life-long Republican. He's something of a hero here, because he still "makes local".

Our hope is he will "announce" his support, although the check was welcome. We think he can change votes.

I appreciate the site and find it encouraging.

Hi all, just wanted to report that there was an open house at the Princeton, NJ HQ last night that drew about 35 new volunteers.  Not bad for a rainy Friday night.

Almost every single one cited Palin as a reason for their attending.

We'll be making sure NJ is locked up (and from my experience in the primary, we've got one heck of a GOTV operation here - notice that Barack won Mercer County on Super Tuesday) and making weekly excursions into Pennsylvania.

If you live in the Princeton area, go to mercer4obama.com for volunteering info.  Our voter registration and phone-banking is going like gangbusters, but we could always use more help.  I'm just a grunt there, but the people in charge are really great.  

May be Obama can create CL's in the RW base by subtly praising Bob Barr in the states he is contesting and asking people who may not vote for him to consider Barr as a better alternative to McCain ? Like, he could say "for those you who disagree with me, it is fine. I understand. That's what democracy is all about. However, I would like you to consider this - Vote for Bob Barr because Bob Barr is more honorable than John McCain. John Mccain has shown that he would rather lose his honor than an election"

amk

 The presidential race will be determined by what happens in a few key states (commonly known as swing states or battleground states). Barack Obama has to win a number of those states in order to take the White House on November 4, which is why many supporters are making time to travel to swing states to volunteer for the campaign.

Today I'm pleased to announce the launch of ObamaTravel.org!

ObamaTravel.org is a platform that connects volunteers who want to travel to a swing state (like Virginia or Colorado, New Mexico or Nevada) with financial sponsors and swing state host families. It's sort of a political hybrid of Craig's List, Team-in-Training and Kiva.org - volunteers post profiles and solicit sponsorship from their family and friends. Sponsors can see their donations in action by following the activities of their volunteers.

In order for this project to have a real impact, we need to spread the word as far and wide as we can. So please volunteer or sponsor someone on the site. And forward this message to everyone in your address book who might want to travel to a swing state or who lives in a swing state (actually, just send it to everyone who supports Barack Obama!). To learn more, please go to: ObamaTravel.org

Thanks for your help. Let's do everything we can to elect Barack Obama and usher in a new era in American politics.

From inbox this morning. use it, do what you can. Hope I meet some of you someday soon.  Vegas Baby, come help turn NV blue, you can email me at lifesabeach100atroadrunnerdotcom

This map reminds me of strategy used in the game of go. That's the strategy game invented, I believe, in China, and very popular in China and Korea and Japan (and interest is increasing in the US).

I've played it a little bit, and am not that good. It is a deep 2-person game like chess, but the goal in this case is to control more of the space on the board than your opponent, rather than maneuvering to a final check-mate blow. If you control 1 more point than your opponent at the end of the game, you have won.

Now, beginners at go-- and this is often my style, try as I might to be more sober-- have an overwhelming impulse and instinct to control ALL of the board, if possible, and as soon as possible. This inevitably causes one to lose, because you overextend in your attacks, and the other player invariably comes thundering in on your flanks, and ends up with way more territory than you've got.

So, here's our electoral map with everything looking oh, so close. But as long as we develop soberness and patience, and don't get caught up in the idea that we wish we had ALL of the states, NOW, and concentrate at home, and sign up 1 more voter, increase our territory by 1 point at a time, rely on our wits on the small scale, and make our efforts carefully and in the right direction, we'll end with the advantage.

The McCain campaign may be over-extending, on the other hand. I don't think I would call its strategies sober and patient. I think they're probably leaving their flanks wide open.

Ann - This is an aside sparked by your mention of the game titled "Go", but there's a wonderful essay that appears in Nomadology: The War Machine, by Gilles Deleuze and Feliz Guattari (1986, Semiotext(e), New York) that begins by describing the difference between "Go" and "Chess" to demonstrate the difference between traditional state power and an alternate form of organizing society (or political movements) that they called "the war machine outside the state." In the genre of philosophical writings in Hegelian dialectic, it's not easy reading or everybody's cup of tea, but you might enjoy it. The work, in fact, was very influential in how this website and its project in journalism were founded and developed.

I joined a few Democrats to register voters at the Milton, PA
(Northumberland County) annual Harvest Festival on 9/13. The town is located in North Central PA on the Susquehanna River -population approx 6600 -- see http://factfinder.census.gov/ for 2000 census details.  Milton is home to the Chef Boyardee brand (founder: Hector Boiardi) which opened its plant in 1938.   ConAgra now owns the former American /International Home Foods factory which bought Chef Boyardee and has downsized several times since 1996 when I moved here.

The Festival regulations required that our work be nonpartisan and stay put at the booth, so there we were all Obama supporters--3 white 50-something  women and one 20-something white male on a rainy Saturday.

We registered about 30 new voters from 9 - 4  --mostly Republicans based on those who chose to list their affiliation on the voter forms. One young man commented "I'm voting for the lesser of two evils" as he registered Republican. Others were enthusiastic saying they really had to vote--including several new Republicans, and one interracial couple with two sweet kids who registered Democrat.

We also answered questions on voting in general--absentee ballots, changes in addresses, contact info for the county offices.

One 70 year old man stopped by to find out how to check on his existing status and lamented his personal situation--on a waiting list for subsidized housing, serious health concerns, his wife's inability to find work (she is 59 years old). Then he said, "I can't vote for that Obama --he's pro abortion."  It just reminded me of that primary flap when Barack astutely pointed out that  people vote against their economic interests and cling to their traditions.

I guess I was glad to see people in this rural area engaged but was saddened to see so many people preferring the person they think they know. On the other hand I wonder if some small town traditional-values voters in close-knit communities are uncomfortable admitting they might vote for a Democrat, African American candidate.  People who admit they like Obama will often say "but I'm Republican" as if they have no choice!

Devilstower on Daily Kos coincidentally has an interesting post on Small Town Values this morning.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/14/901/80548/410/597596

btw, this area of PA area does include Centre county, home of Penn State, and Union county, home of Bucknell University, and Barack carried both in the April primary.  This and other stories from around the country give me hope for enthusiastic voter turnout for Obama and eventual voter rejection of the McCain/Palin nastiness...

And any other Floridians out there - interesting recommended post on dKos this morning on an interview McCain did with Ramos in Miami.  His answers are awful - really dithering, but the poster points out a few specific points that would be key to certain constituencies in Florida.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/14/71953/5266/529/597461

(also, shows McCain perpuating the erroneous statement that Alaska supplies 20 percent of America's energy - ha more like 2.4 percent)

KD

Great work at the fair!

If I might, here is one way to gently push back on people like the 70-yr old man who "can't" vote for Obama, because he is "pro-abortion."  Appeal to their ostensibly Republican desire for less government interference while challenging the concept of being "PRO" abortion.

I would tell someone like that man that Sen. Obama is not "pro-abortion."  He is a man of deep Christian faith who wants abortions to be as rare as possible but believes that individual women should make that most difficult and personal decision, not the heavy hand of government.

If that message were gently put out there over and over, perhaps it'd move those who have at least a glimmer of being moved.

If you cannot volunteer to phone bank or register voters, you can still help!  It is time to dig deep and give another 5, 10, 15, 25 or whatever dollars to Obama's campaign.

I am truly inspired by this grassroots movement.  My sister lives near Cleveland, OH.  Many of the Obama supporters have family living in the swing states.  Consider traveling to these areas, crashing at a relative's house, and working the area for Obama.  I think this is a great idea!  It kills two birds with one stone!  Work Obama's campaign by day, and visit family by night! 

I'm not sure why we didn't do a lot of advertising all over Minnesota during and after the St. Paul convention. That's a head scratcher as that would have been when people were most tuned into politics.  McCain was on ALL the time with some nasty misleading ads and there were no Obama ads during the same time period. So McCain's advertising I think is the result of this poll of over 1,000 likely voters which now shows them tied.  The Trib polls have been pretty accurate thru the primary.

Tied at 45% is the only good news as it means there are still quite a few undecided.  I'm no expert on what would appeal to Minnesota voters but one way might be the subject of the Bridge to Nowhere and the Bridge in the Bottom of the River. 

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/28353589.html?elr=KArksc8P:Pc:UthPacyPE7iUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU

* $66 million in August (not including the Palin money bomb of early September)

* The "View" Women make McCain look like a tight and angry old man--while sitting on a couch!

* The "SNL" women emasculate the media's McMachismo all the while telling them to "grow a pair" in their coverage of the McLies.

* The Keating Five McCain Seven now has their own website!

* Surrogates (Gov. Sebelius, Sen. McCaskill) coming out saying 1) McPalin LIES 2) It's not the content of the lies but the fact that lying is DISHONORABLE and that McPalin has lost any honor s/he once had as a HockeyMom/POW! 3) McPalin is against Equal Pay for Equal Work and for the imprisonment of women who have abortions. 

* Again, isn't there the smell of blood in the water?

This travel site is a great thing, Christi.  But your link wasn't working for me (though the site was easy to find).  It's here:

http://obamatravel.org/

I'll be getting this out there since I know plenty of people with more money than time.  Would donations here be separate from normal donations to the campaign?  Seems like a good thing for anyone that is maxed out - those donors should definitely be identified and informed of this.

A question - Does anyone know of any place to send college students who are interested in helping out?  My fear (from seeing some of their comments) is that they would just end up hanging out and not getting much done.  Is there some part of the campaign that organizes students in particular?

OK, I found the students section of the BO website.  I'm a genius.  But any other useful info I could steer to students would be great.

Thank god I canceled my newspaper subscription long ago...

http://rawstory.com//printstory.php?story=11833

"A 60-minute DVD, titled "Obsession: Radical Islam's War Against the West," is being distributed in millions of newspapers across the country this week primarily in swing states through an advertising purchase by a shadowy group called the Clarion Fund."

Colorado - Boulder Daily Camera, Centennial Citizen, Denver Post, Fort Collins Coloradoan, Greeley Tribune

Iowa - Daily Nonpareil, Des Moines Register, Iowa City Press Citizen, Quad City Times, Sioux City Journal

Indiana - South Bend Tribune

Florida - Daily Commercial, Florida Times-Union, Ft. Lauderdale El Sentinel, Ft. Myers News Press, Miami Herald, Ocala Star Banner, Orlando Sun Sentinel, Palm Beach Post, Tampa Tribune, Tallahassee Democrat, St. Petersburg Times, South Florida Sun-Sentinel

Michigan - Detroit Free-Press, Flint Journal, Grand Rapids Press, Lansing State Journal

Missouri - Springfield News-Leader

Nevada - Las Vegas Review-Journal/Sun, Nevada Appeal, Reno Gazette-Journal

New Hampshire - Portsmouth Herald News, Union Leader

New Mexico - Clovis News Journal, Hobbs News-Sun, Rio Rancho Observer

Ohio - Columbus Dispatch, Dayton Daily News, Middletown Journal, Morning Journal, Toledo Blade, Youngstown Vindicator

North Carolina - Charlotte Observer, Raleigh News & Observer

Pennsylvania - Bucks Co. Courier Times, Erie Times-News, Morning Call, Philadelphia Inquirer, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, Reading Eagle, The Patriot-News

Virginia - Sun-Gazette, Virginian-Pilot

Wisconsin - Green Bay Press-Gazette, Janesville Gazette, Journal Times, La Crosse Tribune, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

Al-I think this diary over at Dailykos is really good! It's very informative and I'm wondering if you have a way to pass it along to the Obama camp? They could use this canvasser's experience and advice to change their messaging for low info voters who don't understand the big words and lobbyist connection themes... Just a thought.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/14/121226/794/600/598423

Al,

I would be very interested in your expertise into what type of air campaign would be best at this time knowing that the ground campaign looks pretty strong.  Isn't is just the LIPs (Low Information People) at this point that we need to target?  I mean, seriously, even people living in caves :) know about the candidates and their strongly different positions on most every issue.  So the LIPs either haven't made up their mind because they never watch the news or open a paper or - because they are LIPs - would probably be willing to STILL change their mind (such as just deciding to vote for whoever the media is claiming is ahead in the polls).

The air campaign that I have seen so far seems to be a little too smart for their interests I would think.  I wouldn't want to be the person making these decisions on ad tactics but you have to believe that intelligence maybe isn't the key to those voter's minds.

http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/2004/US-Election-IQ2004.htm

I'm off to the campaign office that opens in a few minutes.  It's a really windy rainy day here in Chicago so it's a good day to be on the phones.

Deep scarlet red Oklahoma saw the grand opening of the Tulsa Obama headquarters yesterday.Approximately 1000 people came through the doors..it reminded me of a bunch of "sweet" grasshoppers or locusts..the buzz was incredible, all merchandise was sold, hundreds more signed up to help Tulsans for Obama do whatever they could to help.

Thank you, Al!  I come to this blog for a daily dose of sanity, rather than all the bitching and hand-wringing.  I hope to hell you're right. 

I don't know what state you're in, but getting students to organize and register their fellow students would seem to be a top priority.  Here in Vermont the students are doing that, as well as helping out at the campaign office, and also organizing carpooling trips to NH.

KD

I've been wondering myself why Obama hasn't made more of a targeted message to young voters. In my experiences in Idaho, the majority of people visiting our booths have been college age or seniors in high school (which is still voting age). I know they're much less reliable on voting day, but still, I thought he would've made more stops at universities by now, or held some forums that appeal to younger people.

I see on his website that he's starting to come West again for campaign events, and I'm really, REALLY hoping he comes up to Montana State again so I can go to the rally. I missed him three times during the primaries because of the stupid weather around here.

In the meantime, I guess I should follow Al's advice and do everything I can to get out the youth vote and let Obama do what he has to do with the rest. But it was heartening yesterday at the fair to see so many young people come by. One girl had four stickers planted on herself and wanted a balloon to carry around (we gave out at least 500 Obama balloons). And some people who looked like your run-of-the-mill Idaho Republicans came by asking for buttons and grabbing campaign literature.

That made up for the guy who drove by me earlier on the freeway, saw my bumper sticker and yelled "F--- Obama!" I'm just waiting for my car to get egged or something, lol.

From the Hill, Democrats' latest idea: gas stamps

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/democrats-latest-idea-gas-stamps-200...

The proposal to subsidize fuel costs for lower-income families and individuals would almost certainly be popular with white, working-class voters and could boost Barack Obama’s appeal with that critical voting bloc in this year’s presidential election.

This idea, similar to food stamps, comes from my congressman, Jim McDermott, Washington.  The article also mentions the move could help Obama with rural and exurban voters in swing states as they have been hardest hit by gas prices.

It's a truly great idea and apparently is catching on with Democrats.  A while back Republicans shot down a Democrat plan for a windfall profits tax.  I think it would be wonderful political theatre (similar to a Palin pick) to float the idea of gas stamps funded by a windfall profits tax on oil companies.  Plus it pulls the rug out from under Republican ideas of Alaskan & off shore oil drilling.

If their campus has a Students for Barack Obama (SFBO) group, they're pretty organized.  If they don't have one, they still have some time to form one!  The field organizer for that area (wherever the campus is) can offer some direction.  At this point, it's all about registering voters and they can do that on their own--go college students!!!  :-)

-- does not mean phone calls and door knocking.  I imagine that might get a bit tiresome for an undecided.  Would not play well with me at least. Larger scale organizing to get out the votes that you know are going for Obama will make the difference.  Break it down by district, appoint captain heads, get drivers, start with early voting and move right up to election day. Have people work the lines with food and drinks (especially in the swing states as lines and shenanigans are going to be legendary -- enough to send even an intrepid American back home so prepare for that), get poll watchers trained and watching. Have a plan of action if you see improper action.  Be friendly to the poll workers, by the way. That will get you farther than anything-but be tenacious. To me, the GOTV effort is the most important thing.  I have read comments on this and other threads that supports phone calls, door knocking, etc.Of course, voter reg in these last weeks is important.  But, IMO, I think the actual GOTV effort is going to be everything. And it takes time and organizing to build that kind of operation.

First on the registration front, this tool is useful for workers and voters alike. Find out status, polling place, and more

http://www.voteforchange.com/

=====

Second, and more seriously, coming out of Florida.

My father-in-law, living in an assisted living facility in Broward County, requested an absentee ballot form. He tells us it came with John McCain material enclosed. It's not clear, from a distance, whether the return address is official or a McCain drop. I doubt if the Broward board of elections sent out partisan material. I suspect that the address given citizens is a Republican run operation. This seems to be fradulent, and Obama people should look into it. Do any South Florida fieldhands have any information or insight?

People, of every social class, willfully participate in thier own ignorance.

We all do it.  However, it is a very complex endeavor to expose the dynamics of how this works.

Corporate hegemony is part of the picture, on a part.

I am very grateful right now that Nate's numbers lag a bit.  If the numbers showing there now had been there last week, I would have been completely beside myself.  At least I feel like now the narrative has shifted and the national polling seems to be only slightly favoring McCain.  And Obama has definitely come out swinging.  So we'll see how it all plays out.  Off to canvass a bit more with my N2N tool today and rally the troops at our local meeting.

Calling all Virginia Field Hands - this is not a drill! Early voting begins this week, and the Obama campaign needs YOU.

If you vote early, you save the campaign valuable time and money, because they no longer have to spend their resources targeting you and making sure that you get to the polls.

If you persuade someone else to vote early, you bank their vote and stop the campaign from inadvertently annoying them with calls and canvassing (of which too much of can be a turn-off).

Finally, you do a great service to the number-crunchers at HQ, because they'll gradually get a good picture of how things are shaping up, which precincts to target, and how to move votes. And you'll reduce the odds of GOP operatives 'challenging' you at the polls or standing in artificially long lines on election night.

If you live in Virginia, you owe it to Obama to vote early.

From my estimation on the neighborhoods that I have canvassed, hispanics in Florida are breaking for Obama.  I wouldn't be surprised to see it break 70%/30% in this state and others.

Whites, of course, are a different story.

Florida is not ceeded to McCain yet.

I think that the novelty of Palin is starting to wear off--and the debates will prove a decisive factor.

Nonetheless, I am engaging in on the ground efforts as though McLame is ahead by two points, and if he gets in then there will be a nuclear conflagration with Russia.

We had our best weekend yet for volunteers, better than convention week.  This steeltown is very poor and highly pro-Obama.  But historically don't turn out well.  I think our tact of challenging them to make history is working.

The only negative is one part of the zone is abutting a very GOP county and the community there was split during the primary, we've lost ground there.  But our greater county has been a bastion of GOP is out of reach for McCain.  There is no misunderstanding of McCain/Palin here. None.  Every door I knock knows exactly what they'll get if they win.

We need swag, or chum.  Anyone with anything to spare.  We have no signs, buttons, stickers,nada.  Embarrassing, especially since McCain littered the county this weekend.

Being in IA, phone calls and door knocking meant *everything* last fall.  Those people have to be indentified in order to move on to asking people to volunteer as precinct captains, develop teams if necessary, etc.  Believe me, GOTV/early voting campaigns everywhere will be huge--or One-Step Early Voting (register and vote at the same time here).  Again, the canvassing and calling is key in order to assign tasks--for us at caucus time, we had drivers, child care, people bringing toys for the kids, snacks, etc--but none of those tasks get done if we don't identify supporters who are willing to step up.  Having seen the ground game in this state for months on end last summer and fall, there's no doubt the lowly "community organizing" experience Obama has got him to where he is and where he'll be on January 20th--in the White House for sure!

SUSA

Minnesota
Obama 49, McCain 47

While this seemingly substantiates the earlier local poll today, what is interesting is that the last time SUSA polled MN it was O47 M46.  So what they are saying is effectively there has been no change.

This thing is going to turn around.  I just don't see how this strategy of lying and screw the consequences we're playing to win can last for 7 weeks.  Surely if Americans can be made to see that the McCain camp is lying through their teeth, they would actually care.  Or are people really so jaded that they believe this is no different?  I mean campaign promises and misleading voters a bit is surely standard practices but since when did making shit up become acceptable??

I was in Durango, CO. this weekend. and I noticed something that I had never thought about or heard about in the recent deluge of polling and campaign strategy.

the boomers are retiring and they are moving. I realized this in Durango that is booming with boomers. thety are coming from all over and they are bringing with them their politcial traditions.

the polls can not catch this until too late. they can't catch this in the national tracking or state polls. it is happening too fast and it is big. for example on a ranching road RD G that looks red as a fire has four new couples and they are all rich old democrats retiring having locals use their new land for grazing as they play with their toys.

I am sure this is happening all over the the west. and right in the heart of Duragngo is an Obama campaign office. so those that look to the polls as gospel may be in for some very big shocks. the cards are being shuffled.

I see now that Halperin is featuring HIMSELF on his Blog telling the Obama camp "what they need to do."  Of course, he's attributing the "news" on which he is supposedly reporting to anonymous democratic strategists.  So Al, based on your experience, when did the MSM decide to become "the news?" 

I hear it every day on talk radio, with radio hosts interviewing other radio hosts and/or jouranalists instead of players, coaches, owners, or others who are actually in the arena. 

Also, to any other Field Hands in MN, how does one presume to join the ranks?  Some insight into the initiation process would be appreciated.  Feel free to e-mail at OlsenforCG@aol.com, and thanks!

Tara,

I would disagree that there has been no change as most maps showed MN as solid blue  and SUSA was considered a huge outlier when they showed the race that close a few weeks ago.  Not so solid blue anymore I bet. I think this change is directly related to the low information voter in MN being bombarded with the convention and Obama smear ads for 2 weeks with no Obama ads to counter them.  Nate at 538 today is saying that MN is more fertile ground than Wisconsin for McCain.  I'll probably get flamed here for saying this but the lack of ads just seems a bit weird if not boneheaded.  Minnesota is not an expensive media market as the Mpls tv networks extend throughout most of the state.

I hope Obama makes time to go up there within the next week and again before the end of the month to get this back on track.  You may recall that Obama won MN 66% to 32% over Clinton so it's not an issue of lack of support for the nominee or PUMAs or whatever.  John McCain got 13,000 votes and Obama got 142,000 on Feb 5th.  In fact all Republicans combined got less than Clinton's 69,000.  I think my sister was right in that the campaign was counting on this state without a monetary investment and may now need to spend more than they had planned on to get it back in the blue.

I'm in MN and I have to say, we're getting a LOT of McCain ads and I don't remember the last time I saw an Obama one.  Of course, it's not changing *my* mind, but you have to wonder about the low information voters..

A clue to all of us phone banking and canvassing - and to be heeded by those making ads for the Obama campaign:

While Team Obama talks about lobbyists and their hold over Washington , we tell Mabel Critcher if she votes for McCain, her social security check is going down the drain.  While Team Obama tries to defend himself against pigs wearing lipstick, we ask Charlie Hollar how he is going to keep gas in his tractor if McCain keeps giving all of Charlie’s hard-earned tax money to big oil companies.  While Team Obama gives up on talking about Iraq at all, we console Steve’s grandmother who is terrified she will never see him again because he keeps getting redeployed. While Team Obama talks about how McCain can’t push the buttons on a cell phone, we try to help Sally Ward figure out how to pay for her landline.  While Team Obama talks about "change, change, change" generically, we tell a Sarah Palin fan how McCain/Palin is going to tax her health care benefits. (Talk about eyes getting wide on that one: "Really? Are you sure? Oh my God. I didn’t know that.")

All is not lost.

Team Obama can fix its message, but it must do so quickly and forcefully.  Fact is, the currently messages coming from Team Obama in no way reflect what we are all finding out from boots on the ground. The messages coming from the Obama campaign, simply put, are ineffective because they concern issues that have no direct effect on the voters. The messages coming from Team Obama are not the issues voters are actually talking about.

This election, like every one before it, is not about what we think the voters think the issues are.  And what the voters think the issues are is clear, even though not necessarily in this order: the issues are, it is about what

High cost of gas and groceries
Health care costs
Fear of losing or getting a job
100 more years in Iraq

There are 52 days left in this election. We can win it.  But we will not win it if we don’t actually use the information we are gathering not just here in our small county but most certainly from canvasses across the country.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/14/121226/794/600/598423

Lehman is filing for bankruptcy and BofA just bought Merrill.  Future are over 300 pts down...Black Monday anyone?  Heckuva job Gramm and your GOP pals.  AIG also has asked the Fed for help, it's in full meltdown at this hour...This is truly scary...

I couldn't agree more. And the blowback you get from many Obama supporters about your type of diary is, "Well didn't you see Obama's speech yesterday?  He talked about ALL those things you just mentioned!"  That may be 100% true but I have yet to run into one person who is a low information voter who watched an Obama speech.  I mean really.  I wouldn't say most of the people who I work with are low information voters but I can guarantee you 99.9% of them have probably watched only parts of 3 of Obama's speeches in the past 4 years.  The 2004 one, the Imperfect Union "race" speech, and his acceptance speech in Denver.   Most of them have trouble watching a comedy show for a 1/2 hour.  I doubt very much they are going to watch a 1/2 hour political speech! lol. Most of them don't know where MSNBC or C-SPAN is on their remote. 

So at this stage of the game is HAS to be ads that talk about what you mention in your diary (and not lobbyists ads).   IMHO, the lobbyist ad would only appeal to political geeks. Everyone else would be uncomfortable about it because it makes them feel unintelligent.  It doesn't SAY why lobbyists are not good - it just implies that.  They don't have an interest in really finding out so the ad has the unintended result in just annoying them.

I am curious about the effectiveness of ads at this point in the race, and I hope that someone more experienced with campaigns than I am can shed some light on this.

Most polls seem to show only 5% to 10% of voters are still undecided, of which some will vote third-party and some will decide not to vote at all. Just to throw a number at it, let's say that only 5% of voters are genuinely undecided. That means that 95% of the people who see an ad on TV have already made up their mind.

As well, it has always been my impression that many people do not really pay attention to ads. A lot of people these days have DVRs and never even actually see the ads at all. Even people who do - how many are using the commercial break to go to the bathroom, or get a snack from the kitchen, or just do something that takes their attention away from the TV until their show returns. On top of that I know that I personally get so sick of political ads as the election draws near that I am likely to turn them off as soon as they start.

So are ads really that effective? I see so many people convinced that if only Obama just had a better ad (in their view) that would magically win the election for him. Or convinced that Obama is doomed because of some ad. Is that really true?

Earlier in this thread, I posted a link to a diary I wrote about the Heartland Change RV tour in - wait for it - Minnesota. In the week after the convention, the Obama campaign had surrogates going to 24 cities and towns in Minnesota to talk to voters in person and answer their questions. Isn't that kind of face-to-face contact much more effective than ads on the people it reached? What about all the local press and people who read about the Obama campaign reaching out to small town voters and who took a positive impression of Obama because of that?

The Obama campaign also has at least 11 offices throughout Minnesota and I'm sure we would find that field organizers and volunteers have been very busy canvassing and phonebanking this week.

Maybe Obama would have done well to put up some ads in Minnesota, but it is hardly like nothing has been going on there!

Or am I wrong and the Almighty Campaign Ad is the only way to go?

Hi everyone..literally just got back from two days canvassing Nevada.  I hve to tell you it was so INSPIRING to see the YOUNG people at the headquarters phone banking and canvassing.  I am 45 and have never seen anything like this.  I went with my 43 year old brother and we had 3 high school kids that carpooled with us.  These kids cant even vote!  Yet they phonebanked like madmen and canvassed all day long.  It was really something. 

So here is my report:  In two days our little crew of five swayed 12 voters over to Obama.  We also reinforced heavily to people already supporting Obama, that the election may come down to Nevada and how important it is for them to vote.  Nevada has early voting starting Oct 18 - Oct 30.  People can vote in grocery stores and various locations.  It is kind of cool.  I will say the first day of canvassing we were in an older neighborhood, so there were more republicans supporting McCain, a couple of democrats who let us know in strong terms they support McCain (we got the message, for them it was not issues, it was skin color).  But overall, we swayed 5 voters and reinforced the importance of voting. 

Today was a more productie day for Obama, as we swayed 7 to Obama's camp and talked to alot of undecideds and felt we left themn and they were leaning Obama.  These types of voters will be canvassed again and again until they decide. Several seniors we spoke to said they liked both candidates, so we hit them with Obama's stance on Senior issues and taxes. 

Overall, I am SOOO glad I left California to help Nevada turn blue for Obama.  Each door we knocked on made us feel like this was really OUR campaign, as Obama says all the time, it is about us.

I plan on going back Sep 26 weekend , 1 week in October, 3 weekends in October and election weekend through Nov 4 to help Obama win Nevada. 

If every Californian would take it upon themselves to sway ONE Nevada voter, he can take this state easy.  You can also phone bank from California to Nevada....just sign up on the Obama site and use the Neighbor to Neighbor tool

Even though we had a few doors slammed on our faces, a few obscenities hurled at us, it was awesome and so worth it and I cant wait go back!

Al, do you think we have a shot at winning Nevada?  If they turn out the vote, we have a good shot...when early voting starts on Oct 18, it is a HUGE GOTV effort until the election.

Here is another essay by Tim Wise that explains a critical aspect of the media's unwillingness to do their job. It is succinct and hard-hitting.

This is Your Nation on White Privilege http://www.zcommunications.org/zspace/viewCommentary/3618/1

and there aren't enough comments about the new post to warrant an off-topic one in a young discussion thread, but this DKos diary discusses that Venezuela just expelled its US Ambassador

Venezuela expelling the U.S. ambassador and calling their ambassador home was in reaction and solidarity with Bolivia expelling U.S. ambassador, agitator Phillip Goldberg.  The Bush regime installed Phillip to try to bring down the Evo Morales government. 

From Pristina to La Paz: Expelled US Ambassador to Bolivia had been in charge of Kosovo Secession

The Balkanisation of Bolivia

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=GAR20080913&articleId=10187

Venezuela isn't the only one showing solidarity with Bolivia.

Honduras postpones accrediting U.S. ambassador

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/09/12/news/Honduras-US-Ambassador.php

Since the primaries, there have been 140,000 new registrations in NC. Only 10k of these are Republican. The Obama campaign is moving more staff into NC from Ga, where voter registration efforts are winding down. You can actually register to vote in NC during early voting (any registrations other than address changes inside of the county you currently live in are allowed during Early voting). The net effect of this is that we can continue registering voters up to Nov 1st by getting unregistered people down to a One Stop Voting polling location. The 'early' deadline for outside voter registration efforts is Oct 10th.