The Map (Again)

This map should give some special excitement to the folks in Omaha, NE, where their CD's electoral vote doesn't seem so small or insignificant anymore!

-fink

Game On!

No time to fret; time to fight!

Al, myDD uses the most recently released poll to decide who is winning each state.  At least that's what Jerome did a few months ago. It might have changed, but I doubt it.

Definitely need more post convention data there...I'm anxious to see some.  Just the one Ras poll there and it varied greatly from the pollster.com average.  One might suspect that it's an outlier given that the numbers in NV and CO have not changed significantly post convention.  NV is still favoring McCain ever so slightly and CO favoring Obama.

I can't imagine that there is any real threat here in WA...I mean if WA falls, it's a McCain landslide.  Howard Dean is here today for a little speech and then they are sending everyone out canvassing.  I have to do some work around the house so will miss it  but will canvass our neighborhood a little later.

Nate's info says statistically, it'll be hard to win CO while losing OH but so much about this race is historic.  And I have little faith in OH to actually count their votes.

I generally feel better about things today as the MSM message seems to be finally coming around to the McCain and Palin are lying meme and Palin is not ready.  Some good posts over on Kos with quotes from various sources.  My favorite would have to the AP one since their bias has been so clear all along.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/13/0229/89587/290/596683

We have 3 weeks to the end of registration and 7 weeks until the election. Democrats are  on high alert while there is still time to effect voter registration and GOTV activities. Palin has increased the energy on the Rebulicans side - but over the next 7 weeks McCain/ Palin will look worse and worse - ultimately demoralizing the Republicans while the Democrates will only build in enthusiasm for Obama and the conviction "no way, no how - No McCain/Palin"

Considering the difference in the media message at the end of this week compared to the message coming off the Republican convention last week, it is difficult to see this as anything other than McCain's high water mark.  Subpoenas are being issued in Alaska, McCain lying is now being literally said on front pages in the news, and his only currency was his reputation as a reformer and an upholder of integrity in government.  He has squandered that currency.  I think the map looks good considering how rapidly the narrative is changing.

My thoughts include Omaha since I have family from there.  I really believe Obama will take it even though he is down 4% in the last poll I've seen.

I'm also curious how people whose income is tied to Offut AFB will vote.

Al, will we get a clearer picture on how the registrations are going in purple/red states since college students have returned to school? I know Nevada had huge increases in voter registration while I was there (about 6-700 in a weekend), but i'd love to see more numbers.

And I love this postitve stance on being down in the EV count.

JUST ONE STATE, PEOPLE!

(ok, back to phones.)

***apologies, Al, slightly OT***

Hi, San Diego Feildhands--  I have been unable to figure out how to use the wonderful social networking site Susan Kitchens developed(have never used one before, have little time available online in the course of a day), so I'm going to go old-school and post here as time is a wastin'-- please email me: sarahcupcake@yahoo.com.

I'm working to organize a Nevada trip, would love for it to be San Diego fieldhand based.

Thanks!

(And/or New Mexico as well)

There's a call challenge here--top 5 callers get the chance to meet Barack or Joe whenever they return to IA.  Targets are undecided voters and there's a campaign specifically for women to call undecided women.  Early voting starts 9/25, register and vote (One-Step Early Voting, register and vote at the same time) will be out in force for canvassers then.  Looking for to BaRACKING Iowa again!

BTW, has anyone checked outthis out?

http://womenagainstsarahpalin.blogspot.com/

"On Wednesday, September 3, we sent out an email to 40 friends and colleagues asking them to respond to Sarah Palin’s candidacy as Vice President of the United States. They forwarded the letter to their friends across America. To date, we have received more than 120,000 responses from women of all ages and backgrounds. Below are their voices."

I would love to steal an EV in Omaha, but I wouldn't put money on this.  Bush won really solidly in both 2000 and 2004 so this is really an uphill fight.  I would't be at all surprised to see Obama get within five but I would be shocked if he won in a close election.  I'm pretty sure that NM, CO and NV would slip first in which case Obama wins if he holds the blue states and gains Iowa . . .

The Republicans have a serious Hispanic problem this year because of their immigration demogugery and registration numbers indicate that Nevada might be ready to flip even without Obama significantly improving on Kerry's performance with members of each party.  

03:00 am Eastern Australian Standard Time 14^th September, 2008

A long overdue update on grass-root activism in Australia. (Long term Field Hands may recall some of my earlier updates and words of encouragement during those early outbreaks of ‘chicken-little-itis’.)

Tonight a significant victory for the forces of grass-root activism and transparent and accountable government occurred in the City of Sydney. The Lord Mayor of Sydney, Clover Moore MP (she also holds the State Government seat of Sydney) and her independent team of Councillors were returned with an absolute majority. At all booths, including our heartland ones, our primary vote increased. In the primary vote for the Lord Mayor of Sydney, Clover’s tally was well over 50% so there is no need to go to preferences.

In the south of the City (which is not part of the State Government seat of Sydney), we experienced primary gains in the range of 19% - 35% . These areas were Labor heartlands and the constituents in this area were most concerned four years ago that Clover could not manage her State seat as well as take on the challenges of being the Lord Mayor of Sydney. In the vote for Councillors, Labor lost two quotas - one to the Clover Moore Independent Team and the other to the Greens. The Greens are now the second largest grouping in Council. Both Liberal and Labor (Australian mainstream parties) have now been reduced to a rump.

This result means the Lord Mayor does not need to use a casting vote to move her platform forward. It also means the citizens of Sydney agree with the new direction our city has taken over the last four years.

Not only did I have the privilege of announcing each booth’s return at the Clover Moore Tally Room & Volunteers Party with my dear friend Larry Galbraith churning the numbers as our scrutineers called in the raw numbers, but I also directed and managed the rollout of the street poster campaign across the City. (If you Obama dudes want some tips on targeted postering and how to perform a community service at the same time, get in contact through Al.)

Now to bed - it been a long few weeks with the new job and all.

Keep heart and work hard.

[Manly]BondiBeachViews

What happened ?

amk

I just checked my email and there was a flurry of emails from local folks who have never done this before talking about canvassing and voter registration.  It was heartening to see.  One meeting that I hosted using the Obama website and the ripple effects have been HUGE.  I also sent out the Knockout Punch post, Al.  You never know what impact your actions may have.  If you are able to recruit other volunteers, your actions multiply exponentially!  Use the website and schedule a meeting to rally folks today!  There are so many people out there who would love to help but just need to be asked and given the opportunity.

http://www.johnmccainrecord.com/mclobbyist/

I like this site and this idea. It gives voters a chance to read and break down in their minds what lobbyists mean to their future. Pass it around to those who may need a little more information about who McCain and Palin's are really fighting for!

P.S. Al, great breakdown...

amk - I don't know where you got the idea - you certainly didn't get it from me - that any governor or politician can put his state "in the bag" for a presidential candidate, unless he or she are on the ticket (and even that's no guarantee: just ask John Edwards, Al Gore, Jack Kemp, and Lloyd Bentsen).

Whoever told you that was talking out of the wrong side of his corpus.

How wonderful will it be if we can win without OH and FL, given the crap that went down there the past two election cycles.  And now we see it can and will be done.  Bill Richardson could end up being the most important person in this election - glad he was so enthusiastic about Barack!  His approval ratings aren't great, but he did win reelection with over 65% of the vote a couple of years back.  McCain does come from a neighboring state, but so did George Bush.  Democrats have a large registration advantage in the state.  There's a lot of evangelicals who could listen to Palin's siren song, and of course a lot of Catholics who could listen to the church higher ups who are telling them that it's a sin to vote for a pro-choicer.

Nevada is the other best chance to flip, and that's where Field Hands might make a huge difference.  McCain didn't even consider the state worthy of contesting in the primary, and Romney and Paul both finished ahead of him.  Then again, he's spent tens of thousands of dollars in the state craps tables, so there's that!

I think the polls are going to show VERY incremental changes over the next few weeks' in Barack's favor.  Not to the extent that it will be outside of the margin of error in a lot of states, but I think we'll go back to seeing his 4-5% national advantage by the first week of October.  Gallup has gone from 5% to 4% to 3% to 2% in the last four days.  He's been inoculated against most of the bad stuff that the GOP wants to throw at him thanks to Hillary.  McCain and Palin are gaffe-fests waiting to happen.  I'm feeling good today!

Hey all - So in reporting back from the field, what is considered appropriate for this public forum?

What is? Personal experiences, new voter registration numbers in a certain time period and a certain set place, responses one is getting on the phone or door to door, that sort of thing.

What's not? Internecine battles, armchair quarterbacking, rants about "what others must do."

For site issues or problems logging in please direct all inquiries to narcosphere@gmail.com.

While Al will forward comments regarding technical issues to us, the best and quickest way to get a hold of us is through the email above.

Thanks!

Dave and the tech team

I would be very cautious about talking about any kind of strategy that you might have heard, but definitely things like "A lot of the undecided voters I talked to are concerned about X issue" would be good to know.

I guess you hit a nerve over on DKOS there, Al, because folks are still stinging from your diary of last week, and whenever I post a link to The Field I get both mojo and arguments that you are the 'concern troll's concern troll.'  There's a lot of excitement over energy going into the 527 ads, I liked the PP one and I didn't really like the DoW one but I think your point is well taken - they might cheer up some progressive bloggers, but won't affect the outcome of the election.  But what do you think about the Obama campaign's new site, mclobbyist.com ?

during the veep speculations, I was given the impression he could swing MO and other mid-western states. Also, I thought NM was in favor. But then, as a non-american, what the hell do I know ?

amk

I will be doing three voter reg drives at the Spanish and Bi-Lingual masses at my Catholic church this weekend.  I told the priest that I am making up for all the services I missed during the summer.  I will post a comment report once I am done.

Colorado voter reg is making a big difference.  If we can register enough new Dems and Obama supporters, we can counter the wingdings in Colorado Springs and other conservative pockets in our state.

So even if your area is bound to support the Dems, registering extra voters can make a difference overall on election day.  It could be a close one in Colorado.  But we, the Obama campaign, is doing their best. I think my county has 20 teams of voter reg out this weekend - and we are just a small county. That's huge.

According to our Secretary of State's webpage, our registration deadline is 28 days before an election (I can also testify that this restriction was in effect for the "caucus" [party-run primary here] and was probably enough to cost Obama the win here on Super Tuesday, but that's a different issue entirely).

I'd actually recommend that since you say that it's not that far a drive from where you are now to New Mexico (does that mean you live near the border?) I think you should drive up here and fly to a different battleground state like Virginia (to see whether or not Obama's been successful in registering African Americans and students to turn a typically red state blue) and then come back to New Mexico to get a feel for how Obama is doing in registering the latino vote and the dormant student vote here (particularly in spots like Las Cruces [home of NMSU], Albuquerque [home of UNM] and to check out the northern part of the state to see if Obama has been able to register the high Native American population [which might also fortell whether Obama can do well in some dark-horse states like Montana, South Dakota, and North Dakota)

The fact that the electoral map and all the polls and betting sites are favoring McCain right now is fantastic news for the Obama campaign, because it gives them a chance to do a couple of things:

1. First of all, it's a lot easier to fight back when you're down. Because the MSM is largely focused on the other guy, if you land a few hard punches, they will begin to resonate. And since you're down, you don't have to worry about holding back - if you're getting less attention than the front-runner, you can run under-the-radar, state-specific attack ads and have a strong local impact nationally hidden. Obama has been using a lot of targeted, local attack ads, and I think they've been pretty effective. Now, he can unleash a whole new wave in key states. Specifically, he is free to release Spanish language ads that savage John McCain on immigration and utterly destroy him on the economy.

2. It prevents supporter complacency. The public polls are largely disregarded by the Obama campaign, because they have a much, much better tool: internals and registration numbers. Supporters and volunteers only have access to public polling information, and if they see Obama 10-20 points up, they are less likely to work with a sense of urgency. If he's 20 points down, they're unlikely to work much at all. Right now, with Obama down about 3 points nationally and 2-3 points down or up in the critical states, there is a ton of incentive to get volunteers to work. And they themselves know that their work will make the difference.

3. It positions John McCain as the front-runner. Why is this such a good thing? Because when you're the front-runner, the media is going to start taking a good, hard look at you and your policies. We've already started to see a bit of this, as McCain got hammered on The View and called out by his admitted buddies over at the AP! The more scrutiny he gets, the less that people are going to like him. And the more the focus on John McCain, the easier it is for Obama to make his case that we need fundamental change.

4. It masks Obama's true level of support. The people who answer polls are generally not part of Obama's 'base'. In fact, AAs, singles, Hispanics, and the young are less likely to answer polls than older, whiter, married voters. And if Obama's true level of support is masked, that means that we're going to be pleasantly suprised on election day. One thing I do want to sound off on, though: I don't buy the whole "cell-phone-only voters" argument (many people thought that would be a factor in 2004 - it wasn't, and the polls were largely right). In this cycle, pollsters are including cell phone voters in their samples. So there's not a bias against cell-only voters, but rather the underlying demographics that contain these cell-only users.

And as for the polls, I think that this is probably John McCain's high-water mark. This weekend will probably be very good for him, because weekends always are. But McCain at the height of his bounce still has not broken 50% (except for the flawed Gallup LV) - bad news for him, as most of this new support is probably either soft or based on newfound enthusiasm of people who would have voted for him anyway.

And I'm not big on screeching about "what Obama NEEDS to do", either. But I allow myself one caveat: I definitely think that he should run more Spanish language advertising. If he can increase his margin with Latinos this year, then he wins the election in a landslide. Not to mention that several of the critical states like CO, NM, NV and FL all have tons of Hispanic voters. The campaign already has Solis-Doyle; she wasn't great as a campaign manager for Clinton, but the one thing I have to admit is that she did a phenomenal job with Latino outreach and GOTV. If they put more Spanish ads up on the air and reduced that margin with Cubans in Florida, then I can see Obama getting 300+ electoral votes.

I think you mean MT.

Nah, people were mostly for Schweitzer because they (a) liked him, (b) would position the Democrats better in the rural west both this year and in the future.  It was never really about Montana in which he would have certainly helped but only has 3 EVs.  Sort of like Palin and Alaska - it is a bonus that she takes Alaska off the table, but that was not the reason for the pick.

As far as the map goes, I feel at this point that the states in blue on the map above plus NM are Obama's firewall (273 is enough to win).  That is the path to victory without OH, FL, VA or NV and represents Obama's best chance to win at this point.  Those four states are where Obama plays offense.  MO, IN, NC, ND, MT are still in play for now but will probably drop off the map between now and November as Obama concentrates on the most likley paths to 270 (of which there are still many even without those states).

It's MT not MO. MO is Missouri.  And MT is one of those states trending blue but that has a hard time voting Dem at the top of the ticket.  It may yet be in play.  There is just the Ras poll to go on.  Obama hasn't given up on it yet because Biden was there just the other day.

Wow, some fighting words coming in from the O camp today.  For all the encouragement for that, it still makes me nervous to see them going in for the character juggular.  Has the groundwork been sufficiently laid??

amk

I am most anxious to get reports from people on the ground in Ohio during the overlap period between registration and early voting; I believe this would be Sept. 30 to Oct 5.  It seems like this would be a great time to do voter registration drives, especially on college campuses, since you can send the new voter off to vote immediately.  So any Ohio folks, let us know what is happening there.

LoiusV,

I find the dKos response to Al's discourse on the Wolf ad interesting, given that there is a whole chapter in Marcos' new book talking about how narratives get off message and diluted when all the single interest groups start piling on. Well worth the price of the book just for that single chapter.

there is a lot to agree with in your comment. I definitely think it is easier to fight back with a slight perceived disadvantage in the polls.  Also much easier to motivate supporters to fight if they aren't sitting back thinking the battle is won.  But also, the McCain campaign has really overreached with its brief lead. In one of those many talking heads surrogate comments, a McCain campaign spokesman said 'The wheels are coming off the Obama campaign.'    If the wheels are coming off, then McCain should be pulling away into a commanding lead.  Sure, he pulled a cheap trick, and he got a bunch of fundamentalists excited, and rallied the base to a solid bounce. But that doesn't win him the election, and what McCain gave away to get that hasn't yet been measured.

From my experience canvassing today: anyone that thinks the Latino vote in areas other than the Cuban community is up for grabs is mistaken.  Latinos that I have canvassed are leaning solidly for Obama, and with enthusiasum.

Low info white males, however, are a different story.  Puerto Ricans, Dominicans, and Mexicans--solidly for Obama.

I met a Venezuelan family (newly arrived) that are undecided.  Yes, I kept my cool and told the man why I am supporting Obama--didn't mention US imperialism and the word 'vendepatria' once.  The man was polite and seemed genuinely undecided.

Al, we have what is known as the I-4 corridor.  The demographics have changed markedly from eight years ago.  This area is more hispanic, and browner--more solidly working class.

Today I hit a convieince store to gas-up.  Because of Ike's impact on refining capacity, prices have hit five bucks a gallon in various areas of the state.   Older white men at the store did not stick up for McLame when I let loose some snarky comments--and one young hispanic man rebuked Daddy Yankee for backing McLame.  This all happened in the space of five minutes--i knew it was going to be a good day.

It's hot as hell, and I am going out on my second leg of canvassing in about 15 minutes.

The general mood is pretty somber--and even the white folks that will support McLame aren't doing so ethusiastically.

Despite my generalization (based in cL fears), there are quite a few white follks that know McLame will not advance policies that help the working class or middle class.

Al, I think the polling here in Florida underestimates Obama's support in the state.  Cell phones are huge in this state.

Republican representatives (Feeney) are mailing themselves white powder--to smear leftwing activists, of course.

Al, having said this about my state--I have to say, Nevada and New Mexico might be better turf for you to observe during the wind-up of voter registration.

If I remember correctly, New Mexico was pretty damned close four years ago--and the marks agaisnt the Republican rightwing are much more clear cut at this point.

I have not given up on Florida, not by a long-shot--but the aforementioned states might be a better shot.  Just say'n.

 Here is encouraging news on Montana (MT) from the front page of Kos.

This is something else the moderates of this country should be aware of. The first paragraph is frightening.

Comments by the governor of Alaska in her first television interview, in which she said Nato may have to go to war with Russia and took a tough line on Iran's nuclear programme, were the result of two weeks of briefings by neoconservatives.

 I will not be able to post online (as a long term volunteer) while  I'm at my post so keep the faith, and continue to register voters, canvass, call and donate. I will be checking in and reading all your comments. I am a loud mouth (I am told) so it will be hard to not comment, you know everyone's entitled to my opinion, whether they want it or not (my husband's saying about me).

In this year, the fierce sense of urgency is upon us. I have hope we will prevail.

Obama/Biden'08

Proud Fieldhand Christi

I've been pleased to see the Obama campaign is not taking Minnesota for granted. They have 11 offices throughout the state at my last count, and are currently running the Heartland Change RV tour to visit small towns throughout the state, which I think is absolutely terrific. In Minnesota at least a lot of these rural areas have been traditionally Democratic, are are open to voting Democratic again - but only if we make an effort to reach out and show we are listening. The Obama campaign is doing this.

All of which is a lead-in for a shameless plug for my diary, Change comes to a small town in Minnesota, about the Heartland Change event in the town where my mom grew up and a lot of my family still lives. My aunt was able to attend the event and was thrilled at how many people showed up and how well it went.

This is the kind of thing that reassures me about Obama's ground game.

As a well-phrased and succinct response to cries of panic and demands for the lifeboats, consider the following:

"No, look, the Obama campaign has been an excellent campaign. Every campaign goes through stresses. Every campaign goes through difficult polls. The fact that the Republican convention was as successful as it was was basically out of the hands of the Obama campaign.

I think these polls will settle down close to even. And I think the real important thing is not to overreact, not to be caught in a back-and-forth with Palin, but to get your candidate rising above it.

In the '96 campaign, we stuck very strongly to making the arguments of what the country needed for the 21st century. And then on the air we very strongly made a contrast between the policy differences, what would happen to things like Medicare and Medicaid if the country went in another direction.

And I think it's important for the Obama campaign to stick to the policy differences, get back there, show the different lives that Americans would have. And it's not easy in this environment. I fully recognize that."

Anyone care to hazard a guess as to who said this?  The answer might well surprise you:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/11/politics/politicalplayers/main...

Morzer - A stopped clock (like Mark Penn) can still be right twice a day!

Christi,

Let us know if you need any help from other FieldHands.

Laura,

Tipped and Recc'd your diary. Loved the photos.

Spent my afternoon calling Obama supporters in western IL to
organize to travel to IA for door knocking. Not so successful but it's good to connect to other voters and supporters. All this was done from the Natl Volunteer Hdqtrs in Chgo. The phone banking concentrated on IL voters and getting them to battlegrounds

There is all kinds of activity for northern IL supporters. Many are traveling to WI and there are trips every weekend through Election Day. I know of some others who are going to OH and MI but most are pointed north.

I realize Mark Penn is not especially well-liked in these parts, and for good reason, but his argument seems logical to me.  Calling him a stopped clock is hardly worthy of you, Al. If you disagree with the man, call him out on the argument, but if he says something worth thinking about, give him some credit, please.

I think we may find that every time Palin gets in front of a camera it is a bad day for the McCain campaign.  Not every McCain supporter is an evangelical or a Neocon, and the extremity of her position is going to start weakening his support among the moderates.  She is the gift that keeps giving.  The saber-rattling is a bonus for a country that is more war-weary than we have ever been since Vietnam.

here in iowa, in rural parts i'm knocking, we're finding

the neocons have effectively put out their tax message--FOR NOW. (and those that even know that's not true or have heard it's not true rely on the 40 years of neocon rhetoric to hold up their socks) OR they are supporting O.

the undecideds are battling between their hearts and their fear, not really sure who to trust about what--but the face to face does seem to make a big difference!

and lots are on board and ready to go!!

I have done some digging and it seems that the owner of myDD wants to be a big time political op (like Joe Trippi). Warner is is fastest and best ticket to the top so he wants a democratic defeat in the fall (otherwise why would use the little credibility he has left to say that Obama should act more like Ron Paul and spam the internet). He is seeing that in 2012 Warner would be a major force to deal with while if Obama wins Warner might not get a shot at the big time.

Just my thoughts.

I agree with all the analysis that sees this as the natural high water mark of the McCain campaign. And that's very good news for Obama.

The problem is that McCain's crew can read polls as easily as we can.  They'll catch on pretty quickly that they will need another "game changer" to attain victory. And unlike Obama, McCain is pretty committed to a riverboat gambler approach to these things.

All of which is to say that I would be very surprised if McCain does not give us a few other, Palin-like surprises in coming weeks.

I'm reminded (unfortunately) of the 2007 Fiesta Bowl in which my beloved, heavily-favored OU Sooners lost in OT to Boise State, whose winning game plan was built around an endless supply of gadget plays.

Luckily I have more faith in the Obama campaign's ability to win than I do in my Sooners (at least when they're playing in a BCS bowl).

But expect McCain's game plan to look a lot like Boise State's.

Obama was in New Hampshire yesterday and today, and I was lucky enough to see him at last night's event, and volunteer for this morning's. I'm terrible at estimating numbers, but I would guess 1000+ people for the first event (squeezed into the Tech gymnasium). This morning's was in a park in the center of Manchester, and there must have been 3000+ people there. The lines began at 6:45, and there were still people filing in when I left at 11, as Barack was speaking. Of those 3000, 60% were probably from Massachusetts, and a good 30-40% asked me where they could go to volunteer or canvass later in the day, or checked willing to volunteer in the sign in sheets we were walking around with. People came from Mass, Rhode Island and Vermont, and everyone was as fired up as they come. That's one of the strengths of the campaign here, they haven't been afraid to bring folks in from the surrounding states, for weekend canvasses and phonebanking. It's an impressive operation, one that I would guess is pretty sorely underestimated.

Al, what do you mean by building a firewall around a State?

What is a rec'd list?

My vote for which State I would like to see you cover, based on comments in previous posts, is Nevada.