"The Movement Comes After Labor Day"

Hi Al,

The Movement DOES come after Labor Day -with millions who will re-engage once the election is closer - those same millions who were so excited about his primary campaign. It will be fun to get involved again in the excitement of the Obama campaign in the last weeks before the election. In September I will be going from Chicago to Atlanta to help my sister register new voters.

I have to admit that my job which pays the bills was starting to suffer a bit from my addiction to the primary. So it was a welcome relief to have Obama finally win it in June and have Hillary concede so that I could stay employed! I have been checking The Field every day but more as a source of relaxing reading versus as medication for 24 hour anxiety.

I'm still thinking that Daschle is going to be Barack's VP choice...but if it isn't him my second bet is on Schweitzer.

Lastly I just want to share what I think EVERY day --that I am SOOOOO glad that neither Clinton or Edwards won the nomination. I NEVER liked either one of them for assorted reasons and those reasons are constantly reinforced by their actions.

I work in a lab with about 20 other people.  5% minority, 95% white, and other than myself and a few of the other AA, no one is really paying attention to the election.  I mean they know who is running, but no one other than myself and the other obsessive pol discuss the race daily.  So I agree that after Labor Day, the campaign will really heat up.

Also, for those who thought Obama was hitting McCain hard enough, check out his new ad "Backyard":

http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1185304443/bctid1719848570

Nice catch Al.  As I don't have a tv, getting these snippets of Olbermann, Stewart, and others is really helpful.

What really stood out from this interview for me is exactly what stands out for to you: the potential for an eight point swing in Obama's favor in Montana if he chooses Schweitzer as VP.  A Montana win could help set the tone for reconfiguring the red/blue map of how politics is played in the US.

Given that Silver used Montana as an example, I am thinking that this potential has been on his mind too--and don't think for a second that the Obama campaign isn't keyed-into this insightful and accurate number-cruncher.

Well, I am off canvasing for Obama today.

The Obama campaign appears to rolling out a strategy of state-focused ads. These are not national ads that are tweaked by adding the name of the state or particular locations within the state. These are ads where the main content -- the criticism of McCain and the Obama response -- are state specific.

We saw the first one yesterday with the Ohio ad on the DHL deal. McCain and his campaign manager helped get the deal done and it's resulted in the loss of thousands of Ohio jobs. (Story on this here: http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/08/obama_camp_to_hi...)

And today Obama had an ad in Nevada about how McCain supports opening Yucca mountain but doesn't want the waste traveling through Arizona. See http://thepage.time.com/2008/08/09/obama-skewers-mccain-in-nevada-tv-spo...

This is fabulous. While McCain blows money playing the same ads everywhere, Obama is far more focused. Obama stays positive on the national level, thereby preserving his own image while undermining McCain by contrast. Plus these are real concerns for these states' citizens and are very difficult for McCain to respond to - particularly since they use his own words and actions.

I would think that these also capture more local attention, more local press, and motivate more local people to get and stay involved.  While the national message is what most pundits will concentrate on, these state ads deliver an anti-McCain/pro-Obama message to the folks about the places where they live. They make it clear that McCain is no maverick but a guy who has looked out for narrow interests, whether they are those of Arizona or of corporations.

My guess is that we will see more of these in the future for other swing states. With McCain's many press appearances, his decades in Congress and his close ties to lobbyists, there must be many specifics that can go into state and even local ads.

In some ways, this mirrors the Obama's campaign mode of operating -- careful preparation with concern for broad themes as well as the local emphasis. That's what won him the nomination and that's what they are doing now.

I must admit that sometimes I have been worried about the Obama team's rapid response and I do think they need to come back hard on the ads lying about his tax plans. But then I see the outlines of this state-focused strategy (and of course the amazing field operation) and I see ample grounds for confidence in their team.

Furthermore, by limiting the number of debates and keeping them in the fall, Obama has upped the stakes for them even as McCain has lowered expectations for what Obama can accomplish. Folks won't see an empty-suited celebrity next to McCain at all - Now, it's clear that those McCain ads are so obviously wrong (and petty) and thereby Obama gains in stature.

Al, before I go.

The closing of the DHL center in Ohio--and the part that McLame and his associates played in this--should register big-time on the election richter scale.

If this doesn't get traction, then the corporate media is totally in the tank for McLame.

This is insane. How down-sized, alienated folks in Ohio would vote McLame over Obama is simply beyond me.

Amy, I saw the yucca mt. ad.  This is good stuff.

And CL's were clucking that O-man wasn't responding to McLame.  LOL

I have a feeling that change is come'en.

People get ready.

Amy, nice write up about DHL and Nevada ads. The Yucca mountain issue will be a big one in Nevada but it also brings in Ohio in picture on the same issue.  A federal nuclear storage site (Yucca is a disposal facility) is proposed in Piketon, OH. This will be brought out by the Obama campaign sometime in the near future.  Check out this thread on the Buckeyestate Blog:

http://buckeyestateblog.com/mccain_wants_to_send_nuclear_waste_through_ohio_but_not_az#comment

I'm not trying to make a point here, just trying to get a read on the issue from folks doing the work.

My question for those of you out in the field registering voters: What is the strategy in place to deal with the issue of proof of identification at the polls, given that the Supreme Court's recent decision on that matter is likely to make it a big issue in the upcoming election?

Or maybe that is actually a misread, and proof of ID (ie. a government-issued ID) won't be a big stumbling block.

I'm just curious about what the read is on it, since if it is going to come into play, it seems registering folks without also taking the additional step of assuring the proof of ID issue is resolved state by state, county by county, for the voters being registered could in essence castrate any voter registration drive come election day -- at least in some key states.

The NYT had a story on this issue back in May, when it was salient for a brief time in the media:

Already, 25 states, including Missouri, require some form of identification at the polls. Seven of those states require or can request photo ID. More states may soon decide to require photo ID now that the Supreme Court has upheld the practice.

The Indiana decision from last April, Crawford et. al. v. Marion County Election Board et. al.

After Indiana enacted an election law (SEA 483) requiring citizens voting in person to present government-issued photo identification, petitioners filed separate suits challenging the law's constitutionality. Following discovery, the District Court granted respondents summary judgment, finding the evidence in the record insufficient to support a facial attack on the statute's validity. In affirming, the Seventh Circuit declined to judge the law by the strict standard set for poll taxes in Harper v. Virginia Bd. of Elections, 383 U. S. 663, finding the burden on voters offset by the benefit of reducing the risk of fraud.

Amy,

I agree.

I actually think that this is good politics by the Obama campaign.  As Hilary Clinton and Al Gore and everyone else knows, you win the presidency by the electoral college, i.e. individual states.  You do not win by the popular vote which is what the national polls essentially measure.

Bye targeting states specifically, obama is truly using a 50 state strategy.  While McCain is busy releasing national ads (when most people agree that most voters aren't really paying attention).  But what do people pay attention to, their local news, newspaper.  Many people read their local newspaper daily, but they may not watch national news as much.  By specifically targeting states Obama is putting the issues in the context of what should be important to the voter.

I think the ID problem, where it exists, will be dealt with after the voter registration project is complete. In most cases that means at the end of September (each state has different registration deadlines). In NY, the Motor Vehicle offices will offer a "Driver's License style" ID for anyone who requests them. There is a small fee that could be a problem for some, but I'm hoping that local GOTV groups can defray the costs for indigents. While it may seem intrusive to require these IDs, it is important for all parties to  know the rules, and play by them. It will be up to the campaign to to fight ignorance in this regard. In NY, at least, the GOTV process seems to be working. We have a primary here in September which will highlight any problems to be dealt with before November.

Here are a couple of diaries about Obama's legal protection team for November: 1, 2. They seemed pretty on top of things during the primaries too.

Thanks for the insight. That makes sense and puts my mind more at ease.

On the ID front, though, as a voter, I still have some concerns even further up the pipeline: the unresponsiveness (and lethargy) of huge bureaucracies, like DMV, responding timely and accurately to applications, etc. Hopefully that will be dealt with somehow as well -- in terms of assuring that prompt action on ID applications is made a priority within those bureaucracies. We're 90 days out or so, which in the bureuacratic time/space continiuum is not a lot of time.

In regards to registration, how long does someone need to live in a state to be eligible to vote there? Does this vary state by state?

Great article in The New Republic:
Life Sentence by Sarah Blustain
Stop kidding yourself: John McCain is a pro-life zealot.
Money quote:
there is no "latitude" in McCain's position on abortion. Interviews with dozens of people who have dealt with him on the issue--pro-choice and pro-life activists, Hill staffers, McCain confidants, pollsters, and staffers--along with a two-and-a-half-decade-long perfectly anti-abortion voting record, make that clear. And his record on related issues, like contraception, is no better.
http://tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=3483eb20-9228-4700-9557-57a47a676e0b

Something that has always bothered me has been the use of attacks on McCain/Republicans in the form of name-calling such as "McLame," "McSame," "Rethugs," or "Repugs." Is this really necessary? What purpose do these forms of attack serve? I can't help but feel that, on some level, these are similar to tactics that have been employed against democrats for the last few decades. It doesn't seem to serve any purpose other than lowering the quality of the discourse on any blog these attacks appear on, and I have a harder time taking the posters I see use these attacks seriously. Their policies have enough holes as to resemble Swiss cheese; why can't we focus solely on that, rather than resorting to name-calling?

Just my two cents...

Bill Conroy

I can't speak for other states, but turnaround time on voter registration applications here in NC has been just a matter of days. The state Board of Elections also offers a method on their website to check your registration - which I tell everyone I register about. The cutoff for early registration is just before early voting starts - you can still register (if a new registration) when you vote early (one stop voting and registration) - the deadline is just for registration updates.

Kris: In NC, you only have to live here for 30 days.

Just got back in from canvassing and registering voters.  Definately--in my working class part of Orlando folks are leaning toward Obama.  The only three people I met today that are leaning toward McCain were a thirtyish white male (around the 60 grand a year income bracket), and two lower middle class white families in their late fifties.  One guy was from Tennessee and he had a visceral reaction to Obama.  He's paying $700.00 per month in insurance payments for his wife--and he believes that both parties will do nothing.  But he definately won't vote for Obama.  This is an indicator of how badly the Dems have dropped the ball with many working class voters.

About voter registration: everyone has had valid driver's licenses that I have so far registered.  Some people could not register because of draconian laws prohibiting participation of anyone with a felony record.

The Obama feild operation is just getting off the ground in Orlando, and they have a great bunch of folks getting the ball rolling here.  I am impressed.

Bill, from what I understand, it is mostly older black folks that are apt to not have a valid state id here in Florida.  This makes sense because many of these people haven't driven in a long time.

The state Democrat party here (in my view) is worthless---so it is up to the organized African American community to make sure that they have their ducks in a row on election day.

Eight years after the fraud of 2000, and the state Democrat party still has its head up its ass in Florida.

A small nit to pick on this post.  Caddell may have been on the way to inside status by 76, but he was very much an outsider and innovater until then.  His take on polling and focus on voter groups was unique then, and  the standard now.

Good Evening Field Hands...Positive: my new, re-vamped (as of July 7th) writing and blogging business has been keeping me REALLY busy; Negative: I don't have as much time to comment on the Field--although I read every post and I still do my Saturday Obama-work!!  Did GOTV at a festival today...

Most of you know that I live in Detroit...and my family and friends from all over the country have called/emailed me to ask: how will your Mayor's Mess (as we call it here) impact Obama?  Funny, they could care less about the Mayor, they want to know if it will negatively affect Barack!!

Well, my answer, especially in light of what's come out about John Edwards (his campaign manager is a very popular former Congressman from Michigan), is that it all of this makes the O-man look even better!

On the one hand, as was said on the previous thread about Edwards, some people will be waiting for "the other shoe" to drop and some "Obama Love Child" to appear in October, but I don't think so.

Quiet as it's kept, we all also know the "race" thing...if one Black man does something wrong, that means all Black men do wrong the same way...all white men just aren't judged the same way because of the actions of one...just like all Irish-Americans aren't judged because of Timothy McVey, but all Americans with an Arabic-sounding name are potential terrorists...

I've been an Obama supporter since '04 and '07, although Edwards was always my second choice.

It is just because Obama is such a straight-arrow, and contrary to some peoples' opinions, all of these "surprises" only make him look even better.

With WJClinton, Edwards, and Kilpatrick (the Mayor), there was always a "feeling" by most people; and there were always "rumors".  Except for the "Obama-haters" who think he is a snake-oil salesman, people just don't get "that feeling" that he's hiding something; and it drives the opposition crazy!

It's funny, when Obama had his big Detroit rally with Al Gore, the Mayor said he decided wasn't going to be there to keep the local focus on Obama.  We said, "yeah, right"...we in the Obama Nation knew that Obama's people told him he'd better not show up!  The Mayor used to be a Super Delegate (remember them?) because he used to be the head of a National Mayor's Group.  Not anymore.

My point is, thanks to Al, I'm not chicken-littling over this...I'd almost bet my house (except hubby won't let me) that there will be nothing like that about Our Candidate to worry about!

BTW: just in case anyone cares...the "Mayor's Mess" really saddens me because he did do a lot of good and positive things for Detroit; he was very brilliant and worked well with people and businesses to move Detroit forward.  He could have had a long and brilliant career; but he ruined it not only for himself, but also almost for his mother who almost lost her House seat last Tuesday because of him!

That is why I always say there is a diffence between Obama's confidence and the arrogance that brings down so many...

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

I just had lunch with my brother in law today.  He is a senior staffer on the Obama campaign.  For those who wake up in the AM to check the gallup daily tracking poll, his advice to you is "get a life." Seriously, this campaign could care less about the national polls.  This is about electoral votes for team Obama.  They are concentrating on this to the nth degree.  So for all of you out there registering voters, making calls, and canvassing, you are the ones who will win this election for the campaign.  Trust me when I tell you that they are not taking you for granted.  I myself have been traveling to Iowa on weekends from Chicago to register voters.  This is what will win this election.  The polls aren't worrying team Obama.  Of this you can be assured.  They like the position that they are in right now.  If Sen. Obama were far ahead in the national polls, this would actually make him more vulnerable.  They like their position right now.

I suggest that  everyone interested in DHL and Ohio ought to look at the 7th comment on this thread, which talks about where spontaneously tearful little old ladies really come from in McCain land:

http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/16501.html

For those who dislike links:

On August 9th, 2008 at 1:05 pm, Prup (aka Jim Benton) said:

Kris - Yes, it varies by state.

A campaigc video debunking McCain's tax "lies". http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/stateupdates/gG5Kd9

Every once in awhile I get smacked with a realization so basic and obvious that it takes me by surprise.  Last night it occurred to me that this country is on the verge of electing a young African-American guy to the Presidency whose name is " Barack Obama," and his campaign isn't financed by the usual corporate suspects.  That is an astonishing development, and such a leap forward for this nation that I'm not sure we fully understand its significance yet.

that, after a presidency as horrible as Bush, the country would be ready for something extraordinary.

I'm not asserting that Obama has it wrapped up. There's still a long way to go. The Republicans will try to sell us the only thing they have to offer: fear, fear and more fear. Ironic that FDR said "We have nothing to fear but fear itself." The modern incarnation of the Republican party has nothing to offer but fear itself.

At the end of this process, a majority of Americans will either follow their hopes or their fears -- and we will get the president we deserve. If we continue in the direction we've been going, the result will be reduced status and power (economic, military, cultural and otherwise), the natural and logical consequence of our actions. If we follow our better selves, we can begin rebuilding -- hopefully, first and foremost, by reinstating the rule of law.

To me it is neccessary, here is why: Alinksy!

Al moved his blog because of this post.

5 )Ridicule is man's most potent weapon.

I don't like to type the opponents name into any blog (no name hits from me). I also think he is McLame, McSame and McShame, so, for me it is a no-brainer.

Nate Silver's page has become one of my daily places to go (I like to read Sean too), Smart is so much better looking than dumb, and Nate is good looking in a very smart, geek sexy way. :-))

I think the more he is in front of the camera, the more comfortable he will become. Keith Olbermann, I hope you have him as a regular in the coming months.

@morzer-- I just watched some video excerpts of Chris Wallace talking to Rick Davis -- as reported and embedded in a DKos diary

Davis addresses the identity of Houghtaling in the video excerpt #2 -- she's a McCain supporter, according to Davis, she's not happy being quoted in the Obama radio ad.

. . . . . . 

@MK -- The Campaign does not care about national polls 

Thanks for that reminder that the Obama campaign has their eyes on the prize... and the rules and method by which that prize is won. Reminds me of the primaries and all the crying-wolf about other metrics besides the one metric that matters -- in primary's case, delegates. 

Al, ever since I read in March your early insistence that PA was a "lead-pipe cinch" for Clinton and Obama shouldn't get drawn into trying to win it I've respected your grasp of voter dynamics. Ditto for Nate Silver. Still, I don't buy this no-one's-listening-in-summer idea.  The way I remember 2004, Kerry got eaten alive in the summer - on the swiftboat thing and on the flip-flop tagging.  I've always thought that Kerry ran a strong campaign from early September on, when he first said that invading Iraq was a catastrophic mistake; certainly he performed well in the debates. But by then it was too late.

As I wrote this, I admit I thought, "well, maybe Kerry lost it in the last week -- or Osama bin Laden threw the election to Bush." Sure it was very close.  But still, Kerry lost crucial ground and was "framed" in the summer.

Asp - Nate was referring to the polls not mattering.

And as much as everybody has post traumatic stress disorder about Kerry '04, nobody can realistically say that Obama is getting "eaten alive" this time around.