The Post-Convention Roadmap to the Real Knock-Out Punch

Al,

you might want to update wrt Georgia. New poll out with Mc at +18 (available at RCP).

The "McCain +12" is a McCain +4 from PPP and a McCain +20 from SUSA.  However, they both used dramatically different samples.  The official Democratic/Republican/Independent breakdown, as per the NC Board of Elections website on 9/6, is 45/33/22.  PPP used 49/36/15, i.e. same ratio of Dems to Repubs but undersampling of independents (and Obama and McCain split NC independents anyways).  SUSA, on the other hand, used 40/41/16.  I suspect that with a weighting closer to the "official" numbers, it'd look very similar to the PPP poll.  In other words, no reason to panic about it.

Al, if "messaging" is not an answer how did McCain close the gap so swiftly.  Isn't it helpful to have a strong message that will give you a big lead?  Then getting out the vote is easy.

BTW:  I volunteer in NH and Palin was the best thing that happened to us here. She turns NH voters off.  From what I can surmise, we are one of the few states that has Obama leading in the white vote male and female.

From the beginning of this electoral season, Al is one of the few outside of Barack's campaign that "get" what needs to be done in order to win this thing: strong groundgame, consistent messaging, NOT listening to armchair generals.

Anyone found Chickenlittleing(tm) or being an armchair general should have 2 people go to his house, and configure his PC to only connect to my.barackobama.com until Nov 4. His TV should be confiscated too. Even Texas can be flipped this way, which would be very funny to watch, as pundit-head explosions would be head around the world!

We are all understandably, hoping for that game changer.  That ONE story that will do all of our work for us.  That one scandal that will obviate the need to donate.  The one utterance from Obama that will instantly lift the scales from the eyes of voters and secure us the landslide we know that Obama deserves.

Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way.  Maybe in a just universe. But not in Bush's Bizarro World, brought to you by Rove, Disney, and Exxon. Nope.  Winning back our country is going to have to be done door by door...donation by donation...voter after voter.

And you've captured that so well.

Can someone post a link to info on what I need to do?  TIA.

Kit - It would also be helpful to have a sunny day on November 4 with no rain to get the vote out. But you and I can't control the weather.

And although the candidates and their campaigns can influence messaging, and are working 24/7 to do that, the media tendency toward freak shows is like the weather: so much of it is out of anybody's ability to control.

Here's a case in point: There was a diary yesterday at DKos that called on people to flood Obama's phone lines and tell him "don't apologize" for the "lipstick on a pig" remark at his Virginia event scheduled to begin a few minutes later. Hundreds recommended the diary and the CLs went into a spasm of huffing and puffing.

The few that actually picked up the phone and followed that advice found that most of the others didn't even do that, even as they were cheering the call for it! That crowd is mainly made up of talkers and not doers, even when it comes for what they call upon others to do!

In any case, the "advice" didn't reach the candidate before he took the stage. He addressed the pig lipstick matter. He didn't apologize. He never planned to apologize. But those idiots simply presumed he would and that they could force him not to do so: that's two errant presumptions rolled into one.

And so they wasted an entire morning accomplishing nothing (except to reinforce the falsehood and GOP talking point that their candidate is some kind of wimp, and to occupy one of ten spots on the recommended diary list).

They're railing against the weather.

Whereas those making phone calls and trudging door to door no matter what the weather are the ones that make the weather less relevant.

Kit, while I agree that messaging is important in campaigns, I think the main point Al is making in this post is that there have been some demographic shifts that inherently favor Obama.  That's why the ground game is so important.  Getting those voters registered and then to the polls on Nov 4 will win this election.

Since I live in a blue state (CT) I'm focused on doing Jewish outreach down in Florida, starting with my family.  I'm convinced that if undecided Jews know more about Palin's religious views, they'll give Obama second look, if not their votes.  I really think having the Florida Jewish community soldily in Obama's corner can help turn that state blue.

There's a mosquito that buzzes in here every day, and types basically the same comment submission under the moniker of "anonymous": that it's not worth coming here and reading this blog because I won't admit the sky is falling.

That's pretty funny because the mosquito comes back, every single day.

In Spanish, that's called "un pendejo con iniciativa" (an asshole with initiative!).

And every day, I just click "delete." It's kind of gratifying.

This site combined with my absolute belief in Obama and his team have kept me sane through the endlessness of the silly we are forced to endure on our way to kicking the current bums out and taking back our country.  Al, I love you.

Please Digg this great post of Al's. This is something concrete we can all do to make Al's great writing visible and accessible.

 Contact travel@nevadaforchange.com

Al,

This is an amazing analysis---could you cross-post at Kos?

Al, As I emailed you earlier, I'd really like some info/heads-up/warning/strategies --- against the various efforts in states to suppress the vote by Republicans.

I've read about the enforcement of a previously unenforced rule in Florida that voter ID must match driver's license address.  College kids who reregistered at school but didn't change their driver's license may get challenged at the polls.

Caging is big in Ohio.

In Michigan they are securing foreclosure lists to challenge people who may use addresses of foreclosed homes, forcing provisional ballots, etc.

All these things (and probably many more) will make life difficult for new/first-time voters who may be too troubled to return, or to vote provisionally and then fill out the proper forms within the specified time period.

Any other schemes out there?

Where will the long lines be this year that deter voters, etc?

What can field hands do about all this????

Thanks.

Al,

I agree with you that in an election as close as the polls say the ground game is going to be the make or break.

I still think however that the Palin bubble is going to deflate in the coming weeks (I believe they are at their high watermark at the moment). McCain took a huge risk with his VP pick, and they are still wondering how not to screw up. For the moment, they are doing that by not letting Palin say anything that is not scripted. But they can't keep that for 2 months (me thinks). I expect several shifts in the narrative in the next two months.

As a foreigner, there is not much that I can do except for breathing deep and trusting the O campaign and their army of volunteers to do the right thing to win.

I look forward to more of your analysis of where this crazy thing is going.

And congrats to all the Field Hands who are doing their part of the ground work. Keep it up. This is important...

do I have to re-register myself every few days or so?  I had to do this a.m.; then when I logged on just now, it wants me to register AGAIN!

Al, could you please pass this on to your enormous IT department?  thanks!

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Al, I believe fervently in doing whatever needs to be done to elect Obama.  But I have a question...My time is pretty well tapped out, leaving me the option of phone calls as an activity.  I don't want to be heretical (and/or blasphemous) but I wonder at their efficacy.  I realize that information gained from the calls may be important but -particularly in this election - I wonder whether they will help sway people or - more to the point - piss 'em off.  Particularly when the real tsunami of calls starts ramping up.  I got the sense, during the primaries, that people had been called over and over, nigh unto sickness and death.

In sum.  I understand donation, voter registration and canvassing but  phone calls?  So...have at it.

I am sharing this with some of my CL friends. I believe also that this "change" year will see different results across the board.  

Right now we are heavy into hurricane preparations.  Although the storm is making landfall about 50 miles SE of us, Houston is expected to get hit with hurricane force winds of 100-120 mph.  It floods easily here, so this should be a doosey (sp).  Expected to lose power.  After tomorrow, I won't be able to read these wonderful posts for a while, but hopefully it won't too long before power is restored.

 Al put above is a contest too, winner gets a $500 best buy gift card. So funny, I am boycotting best buy for their ads on Faux News.

I'm a New Yorker who wants to help in New Hampshire.  To whom should I speak?

And also, Al, I love this site-- it is my one respite amidst the madness of the blogosphere.  One suggestion, though-- in addition to the sharing options you already have, how about adding one for Facebook?  I know that most of my friends would love this site, so I want to be able to get more publicity for your posts via Facebook.

 Stay safe and come back as soon as you can to let us know your ok!

Al:  The ground game is crucial, but it is disheartening to read how many new registrants (mostly black) are being purged by Republican officials. How can we get people to the polls if they are being disenfranchised without anyone taking action to stop it?

It's important that each of take a lead in working with others who may be chicken littleish and help them make the transition to outright activists. Change does not happen overnight and change is not an isolated phenomenon

Since I am based in Chicago area, I am organizing small groups of folks to head to the National Volunteer Headquarters to phone bank. Others are canvassing in neighboring states but I figure if I can hustle 4-5 novices at a time to phone bank, maybe they can taste the courage in themselves and commit more time and effort to talking to voters.

Interesting article in regards to Obama's tax policy.

The details are most likely familiar to everyone here, but I like the suggestion of running a two minute add spot outlining this during Monday Night Football.

The McCain campaign has made a lot of effort in lying about Obama's tax policy in their ads. I've been trying to tell everyone I know about the distortions the McCain campaign has been putting forth, but I wonder what the effectivness of running a two-minute spot like that would have.  What do the rest of you think the effectivness of this type of spot would have.

http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/09/10/obama-mccain-taxes-oped-cx_dg_...

Howard - We all agree that purges of the voter rolls in Florida and other states make it an uphill climb for Obama and tilt the playing field unfairly toward McCain.

But I must take very strong and stern issue with the way you place a falsehood inside your question: "without anyone taking action to stop it." Oh, really?

That's reflective of the bigger goal than actually purging some voters: to make others, still, think nothing is being done, nothing can be done, so why vote anyway?

Truth is, more than ever before is being done. Your loaded "question" makes me wonder if it was sincere or just a back-handed attempt to convince people that their votes don't matter anyway.

Between now and the election I'll probably address those issues in more detail, but not in the panicked way that some that are raising these issues seem to be reading from the very script that the vote-suppressors want you to read from!

My impression is that the calls do a couple things.  Mainly, they identify supporters so that they can be aided or reminded to get out and vote.  As for die hard, McCain people, who cares if they get pissed off?  All you are doing is getting them off our lists so we can focus our efforts.  And you'll get some fence sitters (I've found that to be about 20% of answered calls in Nevada) and you can put in a good word, or make one good point and nudge them our way.  I hear about the 2nd amendment a lot, and you can remind them of the other parts of our Constitution that are under attack, that a gun won't protect them from a wiretap, or someone digging through their internet records, or loss of habeas corpus, from someone checking who they talk to and what they say.  The original purpose of the 2nd is kind of an anachronism in that regard.  But you find your own talking points.

So those calls matter, and they as easy as hell to make.  But I find there is very little debate, it's more about identifying where our energy will have the most effect.  So start dialing!

I am a long time lurker and big fan of Al's and while I know we all need to keep out composure I can't help but be so fed up by the media circus surrounding Palin and the way the issues are being ignored. I live in Connecticut where it will be Obama by a landslide. As a mother of 2 young girls I can't travel to canvass or register voters. But, I was thinking about organizing a rally. Something like "Mothers for Change". Wouldn't it be amazing if on one Saturday in October mothers all over America got together to rally about the issues we really care about? It could also incorporate voter registration, canned food drives, coat drives and that kind of thing. I'm remembering the 2000 and 2004 elections when so called soccer Moms voted for Bush. Let's tell the media that real Moms want change for their children's future. 

Oh, they definitely count and make a huge difference.  See half the game this year is identifying the swing voters.  There are so few truly undecideds that a lot of the early mobilization is actually putting names and addresses to those 3-6% (or whatever) that shows up in every poll.  Then you gotta figure out which side of undecided they are, what issues they care about, etc. so that the campaign can direct the right resources to their neighborhoods, doors, and mailboxes.

Phone calls are hands down the cheapest way to execute this massive voter ID effort.  You can do a zillion an hour and if you're doing them from your home or on your cell phone, which often happens even when you're at a field office, then it's essentially free to the campaign. Canvassing seems cheap, but if you consider the printing costs of those millions of pieces of literature and the gas to get canvassers to their locations, it adds up. So, I say pick up a phone touch a voter's mind; they'll thank you for it.

Far all who feel they need some training before speaking with voters. Next Wednesday, DFA Night School wraps up its September series by focusing on the two most important things you can do to help elect Barack Obama and others.

Canvassing and Phonebanking
Wednesday, September 17th – 5:30pm Pacific
Click here to register for Night School: http://www.democracyforamerica.com/votercontact

Thanks Al, for the weather comment.  Remember that HRC's camp bought up snow shovels across our state in anticipation of her volunteers clearing the walkways for the "older" folks on caucus night. Oops, not a single snowflake fell and they were stuck brand spanking new shovels.   [I guess they never thought that shoveling the sidewalks would clear the way for *ALL* caucus goers, non-HRC supporters too, but whatever!)

The main purpose of phonebanking is to cull the voter lists and identify supporters so that GOTV on election day will be more efficient.  Sean Quinn @ FiveThirtyEight had a couple really informative posts exactly about this topic, but I can't find it in their archives for some reason.

This is in fact one of the reasons why I'm convinced Virginia will go blue this year.  Besides the deadlock in the polls and the Obama's campaign good progress in reaching their voter registration goals, there has been a Democratic resurgence in the state.  Tim Kaine and Jim Webb won their respective statewide races in recent years, the voter lists that they developed can easily be passed to the Obama campaign.  The Party apparatus is already in place in Virginia.

Oregon votes by mail, so after I cast my ballot early, my moms and I are heading to a swing state to help GOTV there. We haven't decided yet on NM or CO. But the plan is to fly in a couple days before, rent a large vehicle, and help drive people to the polls on 11/4.

Also, I know there has been little polling for OR out there, but I think it's a pretty safe state for Obama. I live in Portland, which is a liberal core wrapped in moderate suburbs. Even out in the subs, you rarely see anything McCain. O signs and stickers, though, are quite common. But that's no reason to rest. Get out there and phonebank and canvass!!

For site issues or problems logging in please direct all inquiries to narcosphere@gmail.com.

While Al will forward comments regarding technical issues to us, the best and quickest way to get a hold of us is through the email above.

Thanks!

Dave and the tech team

My ear on the ground suggests a shift of votes from Barr to McCain, driven by the idiots who put the Assault Weapons Ban in the Dem platform. The Palin choice, of course, reinforces McCain's cred with the firearms crowd.

Democrat for US Senate (Wisconsin 2012)

Is provide a way for New Yorkers to call/email Florida snowbirds - that's an easy move and a natural connection, and our electoral votes are happily spoken for...

Anybody know of a way?

Thanks to James and IloveyouAl for the info on phonebanking.  It makes a lot of sense and immediately quells anxiety surrounding making those calls.  If one views it more as a GOTV, info-gathering, and organizing tool rather than primarily a method to Make People Vote for Barack, I think it could be approached relatively stress- and anxiety- free.

Of course, we should always be ready to discuss the issues and share why we support Barack, but I think we can avoid a lot of emotional distress, Chicken Littling, and paralysis if we realize that we need not carry the burden of convincing the whole free world to vote for Barack.  We need only make that call.

Christi,

Thank you SO much for that link.  I am going to forward it on to all my volunteers who have signed up for phonebanking and canvassing and ask that they please make time to listen in.  You are a wealth of info...love you!

I think a lot of people assumed it would be a cakewalk to the Presidency, and it actually might've been without the Palin pick.

Which is telling in some very scary ways because people are so enamored with her ability to be a Mom and have female body parts that they have forgotten what it is they actually want their President to be for them.

Either way, we can only do our part.

I agree that we can't CL and stay home, because that's what the people who are trying to skew the election want us to do. But thanks to the past couple of years, I must admit that if I were black, I would have huge doubts about whether or not my vote would be counted accurately. And as a young person, I'm skeptical myself about the fairness and transparency of our Democracy. That does not mean that I won't vote; it means that I'm going to fight like hell to make sure that my vote and the votes of others actually count.

Of all of the things I am concerned about, the integrity of the vote is the biggest. Not the polls. Not Obama's chances (which, I must admit, are very good). Electoral integrity is my biggest worry. I'm no conspiracy theorist, but there has been a history of Republican thuggery and dirty tricks in elections.

I remember the 2002 New Hampshire phone jamming very well - Republican operatives actually went to jail for it, and I'm convinced that it cost Shaheen the election. Before I left South Dakota for college last year, I worked on Tom Daschle's 2004 Senate campaign. Republican thugs registered conservative "voters" who temporarily moved their trailers into SD (but didn't live in them) from Montana and Wyoming. Naturally, these "voters" certainly didn't hurt John Thune when he went on win a narrow margin of victory over Daschle. In my local election, an "error" occurred and ballots were "lost" - guess where they came from? The poorest, most Democratic part of the city. Remember the terror alert that the GOP used in Ohio of 2004? There was never actually a credible threat, but the Republicans saw it as a great opportunity to reduce Dem turnout and mix things up a bit more.

President Bush's OWN advisors looked at both the exit polls and their internal numbers from ground ops (their turnout and the numbers they had of likely Kerry voters) late in the afternoon on Election Day and concluded that the election was lost. Fast forward a couple hours, and he wins by the narrowest of margins.

And you don't have to be a conspiracy nut to recognize that there were serious problems in Ohio in 2004 - and although Dems now have a friendly SoS, when Diebold machines try to tell me that a black precinct has 7% (circa Diebold 2004) turnout in one of the most hotly contested elections in history, I'll have to call bullshit.  Not to mention that the GOP in Colorado purged over 20,000 voters from the rolls, Florida Republicans are sending out letters to Democrats and then striking them from the list if the letter comes back (this is caging, and it's illegal, folks), Virginia & New Hampshire Republicans are trying to frighten college students with the FALSE prospect of lost insurance and scholarships, Kansas City voters like my Grandma are getting posters from the GOP that say "Election Day - November 5th, 2008" and push polls are threating Democratic voters in Nevada.

That stuff isn't conspiracy. That stuff is real.

The lesson is that the Republicans are corrupt thugs who will do anything to win and we have to redouble our efforts as volunteers to take it away from them. Because the GOP allies in the corporate media are NEVER going to report on their shenanigans. I guarantee it.

I suggest that anyone who has the time become a poll-watcher like I'm going to be on November 4th. The more vigilant people we have, the better our odds of nipping these kind of tactics in the bud. And you have to be aggressive; if any Republicans try their bullshit thuggery when I'm standing by, there's going to be hell to pay, and I'm going to try and get them prosecuted.

I almost think it would be wise for the Obama campaign to recruit DOUBLE the number of observers that they think they need, because chances are, they're going to need them come November 4th.

http://democracyforamerica.com/events/30366-dfa-night-school-canvassing-...

 Love ya back! I loved it when Obama said that ;-)

First, Al, let me commend you on your thoughtful, sane analysis of the state of the presidential race. That said, I take issue with your characterizing NE02 (Omaha) as a "swing district." To be a bit colloquial, it ain't gonna happen. Take it from someone who lived there for many years.

While there may be a sizable African-American population in Omaha, especially as compared to the rest of Nebraska, it's not nearly enough to counter the firmly GOP territory of west Omaha and Sarpy County. Second, Omaha is very conservative, especially when compared to the state capital of Lincoln, and still thinks of itself as a small town instead of a mid-sized city. There is no true "urban core" in Omaha, the kind of place where Obama racks up huge margins.

I know Obama is advertising fairly heavily in Omaha, but that's simply to lower McCain's margin of victory in western Iowa so that Obama can ensure he carries the Hawkeye State. It's not part of a plan to pick off NE02's electoral vote.

That's a great idea, and you can do it yourself!  Here's how:

Go to barackobama.com and if you haven't already, create your own "mybarackobama" profile.

Then, search the "groups" for groups that have "mother" in their name.

Write up a proposal describing the event you are envisioning, including the great suggestions you have for activities.

Send an email to all the groups you find with your proposal, encouraging them to hold such an event in their neighborhoods.

Create an "event" in your area for that day and invite any local groups to attend it.

Contact the nearest Obama field office to see if they can offer any logistical support, such as volunteers, setting up a table with Obama gear for sale, putting your event on their calendar, etc.

Presto!  You have not only organized your own community, you have also invited like-minded groups around the country to do the same.

Your efforts will be magnified by the hundreds or thousands and you did it all by yourself!

From Civitas: http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/media/press-releases/nc-poll-mccain-47-obama-44

McCain leads, 47-44 (48-45 with Barr included), with a D/R/I split that very closely matches both PPP's and the official state registration figures.

The McCain campaign gets organizing, too, really! According to the WaPo, at McCain's rally in Fairfax, VA, they gave everyone who attended two phone numbers to call for McCain while they were waiting in line! Or when they got home. Or sometime. (No hint that they gave them any way to report back the results.)

Anyone who's worried about the GOP's reputation for GOTV and ground game should read that article. It's intended to be serious, but it's seriously hilarious.

Thank you Al for the run down.

I still think that messaging is important but it is not the end all and be all everything. Organizing and messaging do go hand in hand. Hillary's team  was excellent at messaging but it was a poor substitute for field organizing.  Being a volunteer for the Obama campaign in South Florida  I will say that they have been excellent considering that they didn't have any organization until after the end of the democratic primary.  I do believe that the Obama campaign should work a bit on messaging but from what I am seeing it is not as easy as it seems.  From what I can tell the Obama campaign has been on the attack but the media choose to look the other way.

I will  say one way at messaging is showing Democratic unity. I can't stand  when Democrats criticize their candidate  in a manner of that   is not constructive,  which  is then used as ammunition by the Republicans. It seems like we never learn our lessons. We saw this with FISA,etc. Right now Open Left and others have been unbearable.

Al -

I know every election is different, and this one is shaping up to be historic.

I wanted to play devil's advocate for a minute and ask you about your 2004 predictions.  As I remember it, you predicted a win for Kerry due to a variety of factors.

If you had it to do again (and I don't mean this in a retrospective way), what might you change about your prediction model to help accurately predict this election?

 This is a great group I belong to and they have a national rallying day planned. "Moms for Obama"

All those questions about 'where can I go to find out how to help' are answered on the fantastic interactive www.barackobama.com.

Events galore.  And contacts for every state, etc.

Christi has also got a great Forum post up at Field Hands to inspire even the uninspired (who of course aren't reading this blog!!)

I_love_you_Al @ 1:31:

Tim Kaine and Jim Webb won their respective statewide races in recent years, the voter lists that they developed can easily be passed to the Obama campaign.  The Party apparatus is already in place in Virginia.

This is true, and it's important to note that this wasn't always the case. Through 2004, we were accustomed to campaigns, especially presidential campaigns, coming in, making little use of party resources (other than "get us volunteers"), and not bothering to pass on any of their lists or information when they disbanded. The change has largely been due to the Howard Dean's 50-State Strategy to rebuild state party infrastructure (though helped by the fact that Webb's campaign was a grassroots one that relied heavily on local party efforts.)

Because of this, we have a unified voter database that those past campaigns have fed into, and the Obama and Warner campaigns are using and adding to. As far as I know, we have never had a presidential campaign in Virginia that operated this way, and while the voter reg operations are tremendous and rightly lauded, the other big improvements in ground operations are still largely under the radar, and I think their effect will be as big or bigger.