The Post-Convention Roadmap to the Real Knock-Out Punch

Al,

you might want to update wrt Georgia. New poll out with Mc at +18 (available at RCP).

The "McCain +12" is a McCain +4 from PPP and a McCain +20 from SUSA.  However, they both used dramatically different samples.  The official Democratic/Republican/Independent breakdown, as per the NC Board of Elections website on 9/6, is 45/33/22.  PPP used 49/36/15, i.e. same ratio of Dems to Repubs but undersampling of independents (and Obama and McCain split NC independents anyways).  SUSA, on the other hand, used 40/41/16.  I suspect that with a weighting closer to the "official" numbers, it'd look very similar to the PPP poll.  In other words, no reason to panic about it.

Al, if "messaging" is not an answer how did McCain close the gap so swiftly.  Isn't it helpful to have a strong message that will give you a big lead?  Then getting out the vote is easy.

BTW:  I volunteer in NH and Palin was the best thing that happened to us here. She turns NH voters off.  From what I can surmise, we are one of the few states that has Obama leading in the white vote male and female.

From the beginning of this electoral season, Al is one of the few outside of Barack's campaign that "get" what needs to be done in order to win this thing: strong groundgame, consistent messaging, NOT listening to armchair generals.

Anyone found Chickenlittleing(tm) or being an armchair general should have 2 people go to his house, and configure his PC to only connect to my.barackobama.com until Nov 4. His TV should be confiscated too. Even Texas can be flipped this way, which would be very funny to watch, as pundit-head explosions would be head around the world!

We are all understandably, hoping for that game changer.  That ONE story that will do all of our work for us.  That one scandal that will obviate the need to donate.  The one utterance from Obama that will instantly lift the scales from the eyes of voters and secure us the landslide we know that Obama deserves.

Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way.  Maybe in a just universe. But not in Bush's Bizarro World, brought to you by Rove, Disney, and Exxon. Nope.  Winning back our country is going to have to be done door by door...donation by donation...voter after voter.

And you've captured that so well.

Can someone post a link to info on what I need to do?  TIA.

Kit - It would also be helpful to have a sunny day on November 4 with no rain to get the vote out. But you and I can't control the weather.

And although the candidates and their campaigns can influence messaging, and are working 24/7 to do that, the media tendency toward freak shows is like the weather: so much of it is out of anybody's ability to control.

Here's a case in point: There was a diary yesterday at DKos that called on people to flood Obama's phone lines and tell him "don't apologize" for the "lipstick on a pig" remark at his Virginia event scheduled to begin a few minutes later. Hundreds recommended the diary and the CLs went into a spasm of huffing and puffing.

The few that actually picked up the phone and followed that advice found that most of the others didn't even do that, even as they were cheering the call for it! That crowd is mainly made up of talkers and not doers, even when it comes for what they call upon others to do!

In any case, the "advice" didn't reach the candidate before he took the stage. He addressed the pig lipstick matter. He didn't apologize. He never planned to apologize. But those idiots simply presumed he would and that they could force him not to do so: that's two errant presumptions rolled into one.

And so they wasted an entire morning accomplishing nothing (except to reinforce the falsehood and GOP talking point that their candidate is some kind of wimp, and to occupy one of ten spots on the recommended diary list).

They're railing against the weather.

Whereas those making phone calls and trudging door to door no matter what the weather are the ones that make the weather less relevant.

Kit, while I agree that messaging is important in campaigns, I think the main point Al is making in this post is that there have been some demographic shifts that inherently favor Obama.  That's why the ground game is so important.  Getting those voters registered and then to the polls on Nov 4 will win this election.

Since I live in a blue state (CT) I'm focused on doing Jewish outreach down in Florida, starting with my family.  I'm convinced that if undecided Jews know more about Palin's religious views, they'll give Obama second look, if not their votes.  I really think having the Florida Jewish community soldily in Obama's corner can help turn that state blue.

There's a mosquito that buzzes in here every day, and types basically the same comment submission under the moniker of "anonymous": that it's not worth coming here and reading this blog because I won't admit the sky is falling.

That's pretty funny because the mosquito comes back, every single day.

In Spanish, that's called "un pendejo con iniciativa" (an asshole with initiative!).

And every day, I just click "delete." It's kind of gratifying.

 

This site combined with my absolute belief in Obama and his team have kept me sane through the endlessness of the silly we are forced to endure on our way to kicking the current bums out and taking back our country.  Al, I love you.

Please Digg this great post of Al's. This is something concrete we can all do to make Al's great writing visible and accessible.

 Contact travel@nevadaforchange.com

Al,

This is an amazing analysis---could you cross-post at Kos?

Al, As I emailed you earlier, I'd really like some info/heads-up/warning/strategies --- against the various efforts in states to suppress the vote by Republicans.

I've read about the enforcement of a previously unenforced rule in Florida that voter ID must match driver's license address.  College kids who reregistered at school but didn't change their driver's license may get challenged at the polls.

Caging is big in Ohio.

In Michigan they are securing foreclosure lists to challenge people who may use addresses of foreclosed homes, forcing provisional ballots, etc.

All these things (and probably many more) will make life difficult for new/first-time voters who may be too troubled to return, or to vote provisionally and then fill out the proper forms within the specified time period.

Any other schemes out there?

Where will the long lines be this year that deter voters, etc?

What can field hands do about all this????

Thanks.

Al,

I agree with you that in an election as close as the polls say the ground game is going to be the make or break.

I still think however that the Palin bubble is going to deflate in the coming weeks (I believe they are at their high watermark at the moment). McCain took a huge risk with his VP pick, and they are still wondering how not to screw up. For the moment, they are doing that by not letting Palin say anything that is not scripted. But they can't keep that for 2 months (me thinks). I expect several shifts in the narrative in the next two months.

As a foreigner, there is not much that I can do except for breathing deep and trusting the O campaign and their army of volunteers to do the right thing to win.

I look forward to more of your analysis of where this crazy thing is going.

And congrats to all the Field Hands who are doing their part of the ground work. Keep it up. This is important...

do I have to re-register myself every few days or so?  I had to do this a.m.; then when I logged on just now, it wants me to register AGAIN!

Al, could you please pass this on to your enormous IT department?  thanks!

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Al, I believe fervently in doing whatever needs to be done to elect Obama.  But I have a question...My time is pretty well tapped out, leaving me the option of phone calls as an activity.  I don't want to be heretical (and/or blasphemous) but I wonder at their efficacy.  I realize that information gained from the calls may be important but -particularly in this election - I wonder whether they will help sway people or - more to the point - piss 'em off.  Particularly when the real tsunami of calls starts ramping up.  I got the sense, during the primaries, that people had been called over and over, nigh unto sickness and death.

In sum.  I understand donation, voter registration and canvassing but  phone calls?  So...have at it.

I am sharing this with some of my CL friends. I believe also that this "change" year will see different results across the board.  

Right now we are heavy into hurricane preparations.  Although the storm is making landfall about 50 miles SE of us, Houston is expected to get hit with hurricane force winds of 100-120 mph.  It floods easily here, so this should be a doosey (sp).  Expected to lose power.  After tomorrow, I won't be able to read these wonderful posts for a while, but hopefully it won't too long before power is restored.

 Al put above is a contest too, winner gets a $500 best buy gift card. So funny, I am boycotting best buy for their ads on Faux News.

 

I'm a New Yorker who wants to help in New Hampshire.  To whom should I speak?

And also, Al, I love this site-- it is my one respite amidst the madness of the blogosphere.  One suggestion, though-- in addition to the sharing options you already have, how about adding one for Facebook?  I know that most of my friends would love this site, so I want to be able to get more publicity for your posts via Facebook.

 Stay safe and come back as soon as you can to let us know your ok!

Al:  The ground game is crucial, but it is disheartening to read how many new registrants (mostly black) are being purged by Republican officials. How can we get people to the polls if they are being disenfranchised without anyone taking action to stop it?

It's important that each of take a lead in working with others who may be chicken littleish and help them make the transition to outright activists. Change does not happen overnight and change is not an isolated phenomenon

Since I am based in Chicago area, I am organizing small groups of folks to head to the National Volunteer Headquarters to phone bank. Others are canvassing in neighboring states but I figure if I can hustle 4-5 novices at a time to phone bank, maybe they can taste the courage in themselves and commit more time and effort to talking to voters.

Interesting article in regards to Obama's tax policy.

The details are most likely familiar to everyone here, but I like the suggestion of running a two minute add spot outlining this during Monday Night Football.

The McCain campaign has made a lot of effort in lying about Obama's tax policy in their ads. I've been trying to tell everyone I know about the distortions the McCain campaign has been putting forth, but I wonder what the effectivness of running a two-minute spot like that would have.  What do the rest of you think the effectivness of this type of spot would have.

http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/09/10/obama-mccain-taxes-oped-cx_dg_...

 

 

 

 

Howard - We all agree that purges of the voter rolls in Florida and other states make it an uphill climb for Obama and tilt the playing field unfairly toward McCain.

But I must take very strong and stern issue with the way you place a falsehood inside your question: "without anyone taking action to stop it." Oh, really?

That's reflective of the bigger goal than actually purging some voters: to make others, still, think nothing is being done, nothing can be done, so why vote anyway?

Truth is, more than ever before is being done. Your loaded "question" makes me wonder if it was sincere or just a back-handed attempt to convince people that their votes don't matter anyway.

Between now and the election I'll probably address those issues in more detail, but not in the panicked way that some that are raising these issues seem to be reading from the very script that the vote-suppressors want you to read from!

My impression is that the calls do a couple things.  Mainly, they identify supporters so that they can be aided or reminded to get out and vote.  As for die hard, McCain people, who cares if they get pissed off?  All you are doing is getting them off our lists so we can focus our efforts.  And you'll get some fence sitters (I've found that to be about 20% of answered calls in Nevada) and you can put in a good word, or make one good point and nudge them our way.  I hear about the 2nd amendment a lot, and you can remind them of the other parts of our Constitution that are under attack, that a gun won't protect them from a wiretap, or someone digging through their internet records, or loss of habeas corpus, from someone checking who they talk to and what they say.  The original purpose of the 2nd is kind of an anachronism in that regard.  But you find your own talking points.

So those calls matter, and they as easy as hell to make.  But I find there is very little debate, it's more about identifying where our energy will have the most effect.  So start dialing!

I am a long time lurker and big fan of Al's and while I know we all need to keep out composure I can't help but be so fed up by the media circus surrounding Palin and the way the issues are being ignored. I live in Connecticut where it will be Obama by a landslide. As a mother of 2 young girls I can't travel to canvass or register voters. But, I was thinking about organizing a rally. Something like "Mothers for Change". Wouldn't it be amazing if on one Saturday in October mothers all over America got together to rally about the issues we really care about? It could also incorporate voter registration, canned food drives, coat drives and that kind of thing. I'm remembering the 2000 and 2004 elections when so called soccer Moms voted for Bush. Let's tell the media that real Moms want change for their children's future. 

Oh, they definitely count and make a huge difference.  See half the game this year is identifying the swing voters.  There are so few truly undecideds that a lot of the early mobilization is actually putting names and addresses to those 3-6% (or whatever) that shows up in every poll.  Then you gotta figure out which side of undecided they are, what issues they care about, etc. so that the campaign can direct the right resources to their neighborhoods, doors, and mailboxes.

Phone calls are hands down the cheapest way to execute this massive voter ID effort.  You can do a zillion an hour and if you're doing them from your home or on your cell phone, which often happens even when you're at a field office, then it's essentially free to the campaign. Canvassing seems cheap, but if you consider the printing costs of those millions of pieces of literature and the gas to get canvassers to their locations, it adds up. So, I say pick up a phone touch a voter's mind; they'll thank you for it.

Far all who feel they need some training before speaking with voters. Next Wednesday, DFA Night School wraps up its September series by focusing on the two most important things you can do to help elect Barack Obama and others.

Canvassing and Phonebanking
Wednesday, September 17th – 5:30pm Pacific
Click here to register for Night School: http://www.democracyforamerica.com/votercontact

 

Thanks Al, for the weather comment.  Remember that HRC's camp bought up snow shovels across our state in anticipation of her volunteers clearing the walkways for the "older" folks on caucus night. Oops, not a single snowflake fell and they were stuck brand spanking new shovels.   [I guess they never thought that shoveling the sidewalks would clear the way for *ALL* caucus goers, non-HRC supporters too, but whatever!)

The main purpose of phonebanking is to cull the voter lists and identify supporters so that GOTV on election day will be more efficient.  Sean Quinn @ FiveThirtyEight had a couple really informative posts exactly about this topic, but I can't find it in their archives for some reason.

This is in fact one of the reasons why I'm convinced Virginia will go blue this year.  Besides the deadlock in the polls and the Obama's campaign good progress in reaching their voter registration goals, there has been a Democratic resurgence in the state.  Tim Kaine and Jim Webb won their respective statewide races in recent years, the voter lists that they developed can easily be passed to the Obama campaign.  The Party apparatus is already in place in Virginia.

Oregon votes by mail, so after I cast my ballot early, my moms and I are heading to a swing state to help GOTV there. We haven't decided yet on NM or CO. But the plan is to fly in a couple days before, rent a large vehicle, and help drive people to the polls on 11/4.

Also, I know there has been little polling for OR out there, but I think it's a pretty safe state for Obama. I live in Portland, which is a liberal core wrapped in moderate suburbs. Even out in the subs, you rarely see anything McCain. O signs and stickers, though, are quite common. But that's no reason to rest. Get out there and phonebank and canvass!!

For site issues or problems logging in please direct all inquiries to narcosphere@gmail.com.

While Al will forward comments regarding technical issues to us, the best and quickest way to get a hold of us is through the email above.

Thanks!

Dave and the tech team

My ear on the ground suggests a shift of votes from Barr to McCain, driven by the idiots who put the Assault Weapons Ban in the Dem platform. The Palin choice, of course, reinforces McCain's cred with the firearms crowd.

 

Democrat for US Senate (Wisconsin 2012)

Is provide a way for New Yorkers to call/email Florida snowbirds - that's an easy move and a natural connection, and our electoral votes are happily spoken for...

Anybody know of a way?

Thanks to James and IloveyouAl for the info on phonebanking.  It makes a lot of sense and immediately quells anxiety surrounding making those calls.  If one views it more as a GOTV, info-gathering, and organizing tool rather than primarily a method to Make People Vote for Barack, I think it could be approached relatively stress- and anxiety- free.

 

Of course, we should always be ready to discuss the issues and share why we support Barack, but I think we can avoid a lot of emotional distress, Chicken Littling, and paralysis if we realize that we need not carry the burden of convincing the whole free world to vote for Barack.  We need only make that call.

Christi,

Thank you SO much for that link.  I am going to forward it on to all my volunteers who have signed up for phonebanking and canvassing and ask that they please make time to listen in.  You are a wealth of info...love you!

 

I think a lot of people assumed it would be a cakewalk to the Presidency, and it actually might've been without the Palin pick.

Which is telling in some very scary ways because people are so enamored with her ability to be a Mom and have female body parts that they have forgotten what it is they actually want their President to be for them.

Either way, we can only do our part.

I agree that we can't CL and stay home, because that's what the people who are trying to skew the election want us to do. But thanks to the past couple of years, I must admit that if I were black, I would have huge doubts about whether or not my vote would be counted accurately. And as a young person, I'm skeptical myself about the fairness and transparency of our Democracy. That does not mean that I won't vote; it means that I'm going to fight like hell to make sure that my vote and the votes of others actually count.

 

Of all of the things I am concerned about, the integrity of the vote is the biggest. Not the polls. Not Obama's chances (which, I must admit, are very good). Electoral integrity is my biggest worry. I'm no conspiracy theorist, but there has been a history of Republican thuggery and dirty tricks in elections.

 

I remember the 2002 New Hampshire phone jamming very well - Republican operatives actually went to jail for it, and I'm convinced that it cost Shaheen the election. Before I left South Dakota for college last year, I worked on Tom Daschle's 2004 Senate campaign. Republican thugs registered conservative "voters" who temporarily moved their trailers into SD (but didn't live in them) from Montana and Wyoming. Naturally, these "voters" certainly didn't hurt John Thune when he went on win a narrow margin of victory over Daschle. In my local election, an "error" occurred and ballots were "lost" - guess where they came from? The poorest, most Democratic part of the city. Remember the terror alert that the GOP used in Ohio of 2004? There was never actually a credible threat, but the Republicans saw it as a great opportunity to reduce Dem turnout and mix things up a bit more.

 

President Bush's OWN advisors looked at both the exit polls and their internal numbers from ground ops (their turnout and the numbers they had of likely Kerry voters) late in the afternoon on Election Day and concluded that the election was lost. Fast forward a couple hours, and he wins by the narrowest of margins.

 

And you don't have to be a conspiracy nut to recognize that there were serious problems in Ohio in 2004 - and although Dems now have a friendly SoS, when Diebold machines try to tell me that a black precinct has 7% (circa Diebold 2004) turnout in one of the most hotly contested elections in history, I'll have to call bullshit.  Not to mention that the GOP in Colorado purged over 20,000 voters from the rolls, Florida Republicans are sending out letters to Democrats and then striking them from the list if the letter comes back (this is caging, and it's illegal, folks), Virginia & New Hampshire Republicans are trying to frighten college students with the FALSE prospect of lost insurance and scholarships, Kansas City voters like my Grandma are getting posters from the GOP that say "Election Day - November 5th, 2008" and push polls are threating Democratic voters in Nevada.

 

That stuff isn't conspiracy. That stuff is real.

 

The lesson is that the Republicans are corrupt thugs who will do anything to win and we have to redouble our efforts as volunteers to take it away from them. Because the GOP allies in the corporate media are NEVER going to report on their shenanigans. I guarantee it.

 

I suggest that anyone who has the time become a poll-watcher like I'm going to be on November 4th. The more vigilant people we have, the better our odds of nipping these kind of tactics in the bud. And you have to be aggressive; if any Republicans try their bullshit thuggery when I'm standing by, there's going to be hell to pay, and I'm going to try and get them prosecuted.

 

I almost think it would be wise for the Obama campaign to recruit DOUBLE the number of observers that they think they need, because chances are, they're going to need them come November 4th.

 

http://democracyforamerica.com/events/30366-dfa-night-school-canvassing-...

 

 Love ya back! I loved it when Obama said that ;-)

First, Al, let me commend you on your thoughtful, sane analysis of the state of the presidential race. That said, I take issue with your characterizing NE02 (Omaha) as a "swing district." To be a bit colloquial, it ain't gonna happen. Take it from someone who lived there for many years.

 

While there may be a sizable African-American population in Omaha, especially as compared to the rest of Nebraska, it's not nearly enough to counter the firmly GOP territory of west Omaha and Sarpy County. Second, Omaha is very conservative, especially when compared to the state capital of Lincoln, and still thinks of itself as a small town instead of a mid-sized city. There is no true "urban core" in Omaha, the kind of place where Obama racks up huge margins.

 

I know Obama is advertising fairly heavily in Omaha, but that's simply to lower McCain's margin of victory in western Iowa so that Obama can ensure he carries the Hawkeye State. It's not part of a plan to pick off NE02's electoral vote.

That's a great idea, and you can do it yourself!  Here's how:

Go to barackobama.com and if you haven't already, create your own "mybarackobama" profile.

Then, search the "groups" for groups that have "mother" in their name.

Write up a proposal describing the event you are envisioning, including the great suggestions you have for activities.

Send an email to all the groups you find with your proposal, encouraging them to hold such an event in their neighborhoods.

Create an "event" in your area for that day and invite any local groups to attend it.

Contact the nearest Obama field office to see if they can offer any logistical support, such as volunteers, setting up a table with Obama gear for sale, putting your event on their calendar, etc.

Presto!  You have not only organized your own community, you have also invited like-minded groups around the country to do the same.

Your efforts will be magnified by the hundreds or thousands and you did it all by yourself!

From Civitas: http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/media/press-releases/nc-poll-mccain-47-obama-44

McCain leads, 47-44 (48-45 with Barr included), with a D/R/I split that very closely matches both PPP's and the official state registration figures.

The McCain campaign gets organizing, too, really! According to the WaPo, at McCain's rally in Fairfax, VA, they gave everyone who attended two phone numbers to call for McCain while they were waiting in line! Or when they got home. Or sometime. (No hint that they gave them any way to report back the results.)

Anyone who's worried about the GOP's reputation for GOTV and ground game should read that article. It's intended to be serious, but it's seriously hilarious.

Thank you Al for the run down.

I still think that messaging is important but it is not the end all and be all everything. Organizing and messaging do go hand in hand. Hillary's team  was excellent at messaging but it was a poor substitute for field organizing.  Being a volunteer for the Obama campaign in South Florida  I will say that they have been excellent considering that they didn't have any organization until after the end of the democratic primary.  I do believe that the Obama campaign should work a bit on messaging but from what I am seeing it is not as easy as it seems.  From what I can tell the Obama campaign has been on the attack but the media choose to look the other way.

I will  say one way at messaging is showing Democratic unity. I can't stand  when Democrats criticize their candidate  in a manner of that   is not constructive,  which  is then used as ammunition by the Republicans. It seems like we never learn our lessons. We saw this with FISA,etc. Right now Open Left and others have been unbearable.

Al -

I know every election is different, and this one is shaping up to be historic.

I wanted to play devil's advocate for a minute and ask you about your 2004 predictions.  As I remember it, you predicted a win for Kerry due to a variety of factors.

If you had it to do again (and I don't mean this in a retrospective way), what might you change about your prediction model to help accurately predict this election?

 This is a great group I belong to and they have a national rallying day planned. "Moms for Obama"

All those questions about 'where can I go to find out how to help' are answered on the fantastic interactive www.barackobama.com.

Events galore.  And contacts for every state, etc.

Christi has also got a great Forum post up at Field Hands to inspire even the uninspired (who of course aren't reading this blog!!)

I_love_you_Al @ 1:31:

Tim Kaine and Jim Webb won their respective statewide races in recent years, the voter lists that they developed can easily be passed to the Obama campaign.  The Party apparatus is already in place in Virginia.

This is true, and it's important to note that this wasn't always the case. Through 2004, we were accustomed to campaigns, especially presidential campaigns, coming in, making little use of party resources (other than "get us volunteers"), and not bothering to pass on any of their lists or information when they disbanded. The change has largely been due to the Howard Dean's 50-State Strategy to rebuild state party infrastructure (though helped by the fact that Webb's campaign was a grassroots one that relied heavily on local party efforts.)

Because of this, we have a unified voter database that those past campaigns have fed into, and the Obama and Warner campaigns are using and adding to. As far as I know, we have never had a presidential campaign in Virginia that operated this way, and while the voter reg operations are tremendous and rightly lauded, the other big improvements in ground operations are still largely under the radar, and I think their effect will be as big or bigger.

I'm happy to be told not to freak out, to be reminded of the Obama groundgame and of the campaign's record of success.

What I don't like is this kind of attitude toward the netroots:

He addressed the pig lipstick matter. He didn't apologize. He never planned to apologize. But those idiots simply presumed he would and that they could force him not to do so: that's two errant presumptions rolled into one.

And so they wasted an entire morning accomplishing nothing (except to reinforce the falsehood and GOP talking point that their candidate is some kind of wimp, and to occupy one of ten spots on the recommended diary list).

Two things here:

First, the title of the diary on dKos that you reference was Obama Blasts McCain on LipstickGate!!! Far from assuming that Obama was a wimp, the diarist praised the campaign's actions and asked others to call and do so as well. The point of the diary was to provide positive feedback to the Obama campaign for something they did right. That's not "Monday-morning quarterbacking" or "chicken-littling."  And though I agree with you that there are probably more valuable things for people to do with their time than say "Good work!" to the Obama campaign, asking people to do so hardly merits a slapdown! Indeed, I'd like to think that the campaign would benefit from some direct, positive feedback on their messaging, given the actual monday-morning quarterbacking that has taken place.

Second, as in a number of other posts on similar issues, you seem to be making two somewhat contradictory claims here.  Your principal message is an excellent one: "calm the f**k down! the Obama campaign knows what it's doing and you're wasting your time trying to tell it what to do."  It's your second message that I have trouble with: blaming those who raise questions about the Obama campaign for somehow derailing it.  In this thread, it's the accusation that a diary which actuallly praised Barack Obama's tough handling of the lipstick faux-controversy was somehow playing into the GOP meme that Obama is weak.  Earlier it was blaming the netroots for the Obama campaign's decision to go on Bill O'Reilly's show.  Come on, Al.  Pay attention to your own primary point: the Obama campaign knows what it's up to and they're calling the shots.  If they make mistakes (and, FWIW, I'm agnostic on whether or not the O'Reilly interview was a mistake), they own them (they're human after all...they will make mistakes).  Bloggers and the netroots will neither win nor lose this thing.

So, in short: telling bloggers and the netroots to calm down and do something more useful than writing yet another diary criticizing Obama? Great!

Telling bloggers and the netroots to STFU even when they praise Obama, because, if somehow Obama loses this election, it will all be the netroots fault?  Not so hot.

 You are wrong! Slinkerwinks diary was at first titled "Obama should not apologize" she changed the title after he didn't! The first hour or so was all about calling the campaign to tell them not to let Obama apologize. I commented on it yesterday morning here. I don't think Al means all of us in the netroots, he means the ones who are promoting "Chicken Little" stars at Kos. Slinkerwink happens to be one of the biggest stars of the CL's there.

You have it listed in both groups [with average of 2 polls at McCain +1 and as a single poll at +7]....?  I checked Pollster and they list 4 polls since 9/4:

Strategic Vision  9/5-9/7   1200LV   McCain +4

FOX/Rasmussen   9/7/08   600LV   McCain +7

Quinnipiac   9/5-9/8   1367 LV   Obama +5

Insider Advantage   9/10   503 LV   McCain +1

Which works out to an average of +7.  Clarify if you want, Al, or not.  Only mildly curious.  :-)

[Total aside: I don't trust FOX and give more credence to those with larger samples.  Again, not that polls mean anything except as a possible snapshot of things NOW with the possibility of showing trends....hence why I look more at Pollster's graph plot-lines than sweating each new little individual poll.]

@ Karen 1:44

 

You can go on the BHO site, and under "Action" you can set up different groups.  So easy, so fast...they practically do all the marketing work for you!

(Of course, it also helps THEM get more names and emails!)

OK, I received the email from Al's IT guy...I'll redo my registration after I finish working which is supposed to be what I'm doing now!

waterprise2 AKA Pam

 

OT I suppose (but it looks like we are all over the place on this thread)...To follow up this morning's dialogue b/w Howard and Al, regarding voter suppression tactics...I think its important to also point out moments when such tactics are rebuked. I heard about this on NPR the other day and I was happy to see it diaried over at MyDD (http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/9/11/153012/754). The gist is that the board who was considering a GOP-led request for more strict voter ID procedures (via DOT files) 'tested' the procedure and realized that FOUR of its six members failed. They would have been denied a vote. WI has one of the more lenient voting procedures and consistently one of the highest turnouts. Go figure. To calm the CLs...WI will go Obama, no doubt about it.

 

Illinois is fired up on the ground....I have 52 volunteers heading north to knock on doors from our Northwest Suburbs group this Saturday to a burb outside of Milwaukee! 

 You can find ways to help here. Al is on Facebook already, here

The fact that nearly 2 million voters age 65+ have died since the last election is a critical point. I don't want to be a jerk, but in terms of demographics, this is a very, very good thing for Obama. I've always felt that my fellow youth need to stand up and vote, because we're the ones who are impacted most by the direction that this nation ultimately takes. But time after time, election after election, the 65+ crowd has huge turnout, and we have pathetic turnout. And most of the time, this senior turnout elects the most corrupt, incompetent and morally bankrupt politicians our system has to offer.

 

Because after all, if you're really old, you don't have to live with the consequences of your vote all that long. You can just scream at those god-damned kids to get off your lawn for a couple of years and then die happily.

 

But if you're a young woman who has to live with the consequences of Roe v. Wade being overturned, or a college student who can't get a reasonable federal loan, the choices of one disproportionate share of elderly voters will reverberate around you for the rest of your life. This isn't meant to hate on old people. However, I'm working really hard to ensure that youth register and vote here in both my adopted state of Michigan and my home state. Young people are going to make or break this election, and if they finally turnout, Obama is going to win the biggest landslide of the past 20 years.

 

Eventually, I hope we progress to the point where the young and the old have a vote share that is representative of their share of the total population. Until then, I'm working.

You forgot to divide by 4 (the number of polls) which comes to an average of McCain +2 if you round up.

I want to add that Howard Dean is a genius for having the Convention in Denver. I don't think it is a fluke that Colorado, a state with a large Evangelical population, has actually shown a small bounce for Obama after the GOP convention, which has provided a small bounce for McCain in other battleground states. Remember, all Obama needs is Kerry+IA+NM+CO for a victory. Iowa is looking likely Dem and despite the Ras poll, so is NM.

Using the four polls you cite, the TOTAL of the four polls comes to +7 McCain.  Dividing that by four to get the AVERAGE comes out to just under +2 McCain.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-votemap,0,2338623.htmlstory?user...

 

Take this to the bank. Obama will win Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia.

Fair enough. I must have seen the diary after the title was changed.

I still think that preemptively blaming the netroots--even the CLs--for the (presumptive) failures of the Obama campaign is unfair.  Axelrod and Plouffe are large and in charge. The CLs are annoying and it's important that they not demoralize non-CL supporters. But they're not going to change what the Obama campaign does--for better or for worse.

A sidenote on phonebanking: I did a bunch of last-minute calls for the CO caucuses.  Aside from all the information gathering, getting a call from another civilian seemed to cheer our allies a little, probably giving them the extra little umph to get out of the house and vote.  Which is just to say that phonebanking does actually work for its advertised purpose.

On the polls: aren't we still caught in the combined post-convention bouncy ball?  The Republican convention stole some of  Obama's bounce, and the Palin pick put everyone back on their heels.  In a few weeks she'll become old news and they're back to boring Green Screen Man.

Boy, I'm so CL resistant now that nothing is getting me down.  What would we do without our Al?

BTW, anyone see Rachel Maddow last night?  I spent an hour watching cable news on MSNBC--by far the longest I've done that since September 11th, 2001.  She's a civil but strong-worded version of Olbermann, who I'm getting pretty tired of myself.  Oh, and how about NPR's bit talking with a farmer who tried to put lipstick on one of his pigs and attested that it did not improve the pig's appearance?  Here's the raw link; someday I'll learn how to embed code to shorten these things:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94481288

exactly, Al. All my friends who are listening to the MSM or the chicken little blogs are worried. In addition to directing them here I say one thing: it is fine to be worried AS LONG AS YOU ARE DOING STUFF TO GET OBAMA ELECTED. A bit slowly, but surely, they are coming around to activism, which is, absolutely, the way we win.

Heather aka gratitude

Hi Caped --

Long time. Hope you are well. I just noticed your post. We didn't get Schweitzer and there are times I feel he would have been the strongest given how things have gone.

While I am posting I want to leave my usual mantra when instructed to go out and register folk. You can get people registered via words and ideas. I am sure efforts on this blog have a positive influence.

Were we to lose it would be attributed not only to competing ground ops but a whole skein of factors including the filthy campaigning we are witnessing, the weak stance of media in the face of a wall of lies and the failure to date to frame the economic message in crystal-compelling terms and to frame the campaign in such a way that a vote for Barack is a vote for a decent and hopeul future. I feel sure all things will come to pass, includng  the ground ops.

The Manchester, NH office is the main office for NH. I was there last weekend and they rawked the organizing. They will find work for you! OT, everytime I go to the Obama site (or the Vote for Change site) my Safari crashes. I'm not tech savvy enough to figure out what is wrong. I would find a link for you if I could get on the site. Does anyone else have this problem?

Hi Ben,

Thanks for your response on the previous thread. I agree with your clarification on the debate issue.

In reference to the CLers roosting in the Daily Kos and elsewhere around the internets, I would disagree with you that they have no influence on the Obama campaign.  They absolutely do because their fears and negativity has to be overcome by the Ground Game Volunteers who are not CLing.  It wears you down and demotivates you.  How many volunteers decided not to volunteer this week because of their negative or worrying attitude?  It's easy to believe that that type of internet conversation has some effect on the ground game and it sure wouldn't be a positive one. 

I would agree with you that it has no effect on the paid Obama campaign staff but for the volunteers - particularly the first time volunteers who are not used to the ups and downs - this is not a good thing and they damn well need to be called out on it to keep the Ground Game focused and on track for a big win in November.

Josselyn - you're adding the numbers together to come up with a NET of +7.  You have to divide that net number by 4 to get the AVERAGE.

 

Ben - I think in general the left blogosphere should try the maxim of "think first, write second."  What is the goal of what they're writing?  To truly change the direction of the Obama campaign?  To influence the general public to take action or think about things in a different light?  Or is it to impress a bunch of folks with their erudition and vast knowledge above and beyond the Plouffes and Axelrods and Obamas of the world?

 

Second, what is the effect of what they're writing?  Does it merely add to the noise pollution, anxiety, and, yes, CL-ness that distracts rather than mobilizes?  Why not take that criticism and make it *constructive* criticism?

Look, I don't want to come across as a sycophant or cult follower, but I can't help but wonder what people are trying to accomplish with all their armchair quarterbacking.  Like you say, it's unlikely that all this bloviating is going to actually accomplish anything in terms of changing the direction of the Obama campaign - and if it did, it could end up a disaster.  Instead it only serves to up the anxiety level and make it that much more difficult for meaningful organizing to happen.  Speak from your heart - it's vital that we all do - but I think many of these writers could use a huge dose of humility and maybe take a break and reexamine the ways in which their own anxiety might be making their offerings a little less-than-sharp.

 

Ben, not to gang up, but David Kurtz at TPM had a post that was nearly identical the slinkerwink post that Cristi pointed to. The usual suspects went on with their "he's not man-enough to hit back the way I would hit back if I were running for Prez..." canard. Criticizing the "Attack!" enthusiasm is also not a critique of the netroots because the netroots is not monolithically calling for an 8 or 10 man blitz package. Anyway, this is what I wrote to David (I share this--it is decidedly not directed at you personally), which I stand by today: 

This refrain is getting tired.  Though I share a football fan's love of an attacking defense and an aerial, downfield offense, I  completely disagree with your suggestion, nuanced as it is, that Obama is falling on his sword FOR McCain.  Obama said something very canny this morning and that was that 1) the pig line was funny (i.e. an apt double entendre) and 2) that the media was doing the McCain camp's bidding in focusing on the Palin innuendo instead of the content of the quip (the failed McCain/Change mantra). You of all people should appreciate the aim of the Obama camp not to own a newscycle but to force their emphasis into the media's presentation. This morning Obama did not back down, but neither did he launch an 8-man blitz (which is not a very effective strategy when your opponent OWNs the airwaves as the Republicans do and when your opponent is falling on his own sword--to mix metaphors).

Obama handled it well today and is keeping on message--he is consistent; he is NOT Paul Begala and that is precisely why he is the one running for President. Now is not time for Hail Mary passes or 10 man blitzes from the Obama camp, though clearly the McCain sees something that is making them launch such desperate gambits.  

I would just add that Obama was terrific on Letterman last night. He exuded confidence and control and charisma.  He was gracious and "Presidential."

 

With all the advice to Obama about fighting back in various forms, this needs to be remembered - the "news" isn't the reporting and insightful examination of events, it's usually based on fitting those events into pre-existing characterizations.  Does anybody really think that if Obama let loose his "outrage" that would be respected?  Admired?  Of course not.  It would be,"Oh, Obama has really let the McCain message under his skin", or "Does Obama have the temperament for the Presidency?" or whatever.  It's nice to think a satisfying rant letting loose both barrels would result in some wholly new behavior on the part of the press, but come on...

We are trying to elect an insurgent.  An educated black man, a party outsider, a new comer with a vision is trying to take down the white, "straight-talking" war hero.  There is tremendous institutional resistance to that idea, and whatever Obama does will be reported on based on that fundamental bias.  Of course they flocked to him as a novelty item, but now this is getting real and now it's like, "Hey, we let you come to dinner, but now you want to sit at the head of the table?"

Obama is in the middle of a historic high-wire act, juggling a stack of plates, with a head wind, over a mine field.  This is no freaking cake walk, and if he is sticking to a steady, no-drama game plan, well that seems like a goddam good idea!

Looks like the MYBO (My BarackObama.com) features of barackobama.com are down for maintenance at this moment, so if reading the great ideas here inspires you to head that way, don't be disappointed, just check back later on today...

In case you hadn't seen it yet...

 

 

 My husband the Repug ;-), whom I love, got a envelope from McLame today. It asked him to fill out a voter affiliation card with email address and a promise to vote R along with sending in $25 contribution, it included a business reply envelope. He filled it out alright (with no help from me). He wrote in big letters across the card, Liars, Turds, I've been a lifelong Republican and I am very ashamed. Ha! They are paying the postage to get that message. :-)

I frequent a site that is popular with independent and Log Cabin gays (don't get me started!) where I fight misinformation among my own people.  Commenters there are speaking of the "hysterical" actions of the "leftists" at DKos, etc., as proof that the Obama campaign must be falling apart.  So diaries like slinkerwink's do have an effect; but the effect is entirely counterproductive to electing Obama.

These may be progressive sites, but we must always assume that our readers include our opponents.

I had commented there that the Obama campaign was doing great things to ensure victory but I couldn't and wouldn't comment there about any details.  One of the most deranged right-wing commenters there took the time to follow my web tracks, then with great glee linked to a comment detailing the CA plan for NV posted by one of our SoCal colleagues at Fieldhands.

I remind commenters here and at Fieldhands that the more specific you are about the strategy and tactics of the Obama campaign, the more information you put into "enemy" hands.

Loose lips sink ships!

http://www.obamataxcut.com

Interesting. Sept 10 and the McCain crew are just getting around to collecting email addresses in CA? And what was the cost of that envelope and printing material to your husband? Times (X) 100,000? 1,000,000? And McCain only has $85 mill for the next eight weeks?

McCain has $8.5 million/week. Of course, the RNC and 527s are picking up some media costs, but still.

The netroots hysteria does not help.  Of course, the Obama campaign won't pay attention to them.  But the lemmings in the media does -- and it helps drive the narrative, as it did when Obama suddenly was a flip-flopper because of FISA & public financing.  These media dimwits will run with anything, so all the ridiculous anxiety from the netroots plays right into their narrative.  I wouldn't be surprised if McCain's thugs don't throw all their horseshit against the wall just to drive the netroots activists up-the-wall, since they know Obama keeps his cool.  Put it this way, would you want these towers of jello from the netroots in a foxhole with you?  The left is brilliant at pissing and and moaning and complaining and losing elections.  So when it comes to a winning strategy, they don't know jack, Ben.

Also, not to go metaphysical on you, but putting all of this anxiety in the air doesn't help.  It just puts static & negative energy in the air.  Instead, it'd be more constructive to keep our noses to the grindstone and work hard.  Put the wind at Obama's back rather than in his face.  Obama was so witty, confident, charming and completely on his game last night on Letterman... he looked like the winner he is.  Use that as your template as you move forward, not the Don Knotts image that the netroots projects.

Other than that, swell post.

Thank you for the link, I had come across this tool the other day and I think it's absoluetly great.  Not to be an armchair quarterback here but perhaps a TV spot highlighting McCain's lies and then pointing people to this website would be effective.

But for what I can do on a personal level I will certainly be pointing this out to people whenever I can.

I saw Obama on Letterman last night and I must say my heart went a-flutter when he talked about following the logic of an illogical situation!  

Obama's policy of "no drama" is precisely Al's call for mental discipline rather than one emotional binge after another. We've all talked about the death of public discourse due to a media that mistakenly believes that there are 2 equally rational sides to every argument while also simultaneously believing that each side is perspectival and illusory. As a teacher, I see the effect this has had on our kids who walk into the classroom believing that there are no facts, only "opinions." Whatever happened to the ability to identify the premises of a statement? 

The way to this woman's heart? Rationality! :)

Didn't think my comments were that specific, but deleted anyway...

And how does this web-track-following work, anyway?

 Allan-Thanks for the warning. So True! I will be very careful from now on. I already did one dumb thing today, I'll make sure not to do it again. Crap, if we lose, I am going to have to get the hell out of this country, I am afraid of some sort of revenge on me. I am way too loud and proud. We must not lose!

Alexa-We had our mail held for more than a week while gone. It could have been delivered last week but have no way of knowing, no postmark on the envelope. The return address on the back of is the RNC, Voter Identification Division, Washington, DC

I agree that you didn't reveal any state secrets, but thanks for your caution.

I didn't mean the guy used any high-tech device to track my travels on the web.  What I meant was that he, no doubt, did a Google on my name, which led him to the Field and Fieldhands.

Like until just now, I didn't know you were an editor with feature film credits to your name.  Awesome!

OK, I really think she has jumped the shark with this.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=5778018&page=1

You may now resume organizing for change.

And help turn them out on election day.

Al's right about the importance of getting people registered, and about the importance of helping them to the polls on election day.  I've seen (legal) voter suppression twice before, after registering voters in 2004 and 2000:  the state GOP works to choke off the vote among poor people and among young people by skimping on voting machines in those neighborhoods likely to vote for Obama.  Long waiting lines in poor and college neighborhoods, along with zero waiting lines in white upper-middle class suburbs, is an old GOP strategy.

Thanks for the link, Paul.  Yeah, let's just start a war with Russia over Georgia.  Great idea.

Perhaps Palin was confused and thought he was asking about Russia invading the state of Georgia?  LOL

Oh, and the author of that dreadful article Russel Goldman, betrays clear right-wing bias with this comment on Palin's positions:

 

her opposition to liberal anthems like gay marriage and abortion rights

 

WTF? Since when is a woman's right to choose a "liberal anthem?" I thought it was the position of the majority of Americans.

And here in CA, a majority of voters and our Republican Governor agree that Prop 8 should be voted down and same-sex marriage should remain the law of the state. Apparently our ABC/Disney overlords aren't trying to hide their political slant any more...

 

How do you take into account that the new young voters are partially offset by those who are no longer in that demo...those who were 26-29 in 2004 are now part of the 30-44 demo in 2008.  Do we figure that this group votes democratic at a rate somewhere in between the 35-44 and 18-29 group?

Also with regard to all the new voters being registered, is there info on the voting rate among newly registerd?  14 million of 16 million African-Americans who were registered voted in 2004, thats impressive.  However, you say 58% of those eligible were registered.  Is it possible that the ground game makes that 70% or 75%... and that 85% of those registered vote... what numbers would you use as guidelines.  TIA

Today I decided to do my part to increase sales for Obama's new book and took my business to Barnes & Noble (I have a Member Card and was trying to save a little money). Anyway, the clerk looked down at the cover, sneered and said "So what experience does he have?" I began listing Obama's experience when I realized he was baiting me and still sneering. So I said he made me feel about my country the way I felt when I was a girl (I'm 51). Again, the sneer then "Oh, just like his wife?" "Yes," I answered, "We are both patriots." He said "God Help Us All!" By this time my voice was shaking and my cheeks are flushed. I responded: "Yes God WILL help us all!" and left with my package.Can you believe this shit for trying to give them my business?! I have called the store manager but I can't believe the ugliness in that man's eyes. Keep fighting the good fight, Field Hands.  Our country is worth it.

Bridget to Nowhere.

Just a word about the old people who vote for Republicans because they won't live to see the awful outcome.  I'm a 67 year old white woman (to give you my full demographic) and I'm supporting Obama, not just for myself, but for my children and my grandson.  Most old people have children and grandchildren.  If they're supporting McCain, it's because they don't really understand the implications.  They probably think he's the safe choice, rather than this young upstart with the funny name.  I don't know the best way to break through this misconception.  All the elders I know support Obama so I guess I'm not really in touch with the majority of my generation.  I suspect though that many would be disturbed by Palin and her lack of experience and perhaps less taken in by her looks and personality - especially older women, who might consider her to be the upstart. I know my sons' grandmother on their father's side - she's 84 and lives in Abilene, Tx. - is crazy about Obama and can't stand Palin.  It would be interesting to see a poll of this age group on Palin in particular and whether or not they think she's qualified to be vp.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/in_michigan_more_an...

KD

With the actual questions listed(now we see where that sex education line ties in too)

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/antiobama_push_poll...

KD

I have to say I love Ezra Klein's blog. He has a knack for explaining and summmarizing policy stuff. This is his description of McCain's health care plan and it sounds pretty scary:

 

Joe's taking a look at McCain's health insurance place and focusing on the fact that it exposes employer health care benefits to taxation. This is a tremendous tax increase, to the tune of $3.6 trillion over 10 years. But you won't pay most of it. Rather, as it becomes less affordable for employers to pay for health care, they'll stop doing it. Put another way: You're not going to pay higher taxes, you're going to lose your health care coverage. Then you'll be in the individual market where McCain will give you a fixed tax credit -- $5,000 for a family, or about 40 percent the cost of the average plan -- to purchase care.

 

I think this will be useful info to have at our fingertips when we are talking to/phoning voters. He closes with this:

Hey, here's a joke: What's the difference between a hockey mom under an Obama presidency and a hockey mom under a McCain presidency? Under a McCain presidency, there won't be hockey moms, because they can't afford to let their kids get hurt in a contact sport. Funny, right?

http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=09&year=2008&...

KD

Nate shows McCain up only 1 in Nevada!  We can do this...

I know, just one poll, but still...

As usual, Al, well done.

I am reporting for duty this weekend--canvassing and registering new voters.

Next weekend, same story.

Farm work is put on hold on the weekends until after the election.

McCain may be winning Georgia now ( I hear it's only 7 points) but they have McCain winning the 18-29 vote and .....the AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTE.....that ain't gonna happen............

Al, just my two-cents--I think that Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado are where you should engage later this month. Either those three, or Ohio/Indiana.

But you are always welcomed in Florida. I will take time to introduce you to the Obama campaign in my neck of the wood--and for a night on the town at my expense also. Just say'n bro....

 

Alan, LOL, you are an evil effer! I like it.

Last week I quipped to you that I don't want to see you meet up with a log cabin in a dark alley after you've had a few under your belt on a Friday night.

Actually, a more apt monicur would be "impalin'.

Enough! I'll stop, I promise.

 

I booked a flight to Denver today to help for 4 days!  I'm so excited to help in a battleground state.  Plus I have a friend I'll be staying with and I'll drag her along with me.  I think I made the right choice rather than sending the $200 airfare equivalent to the campaign.

I applied for Camp Obama in SoCal last night, and now I'm nervous! Any idea when I might hear back from someone? You can e-mail me if you don't think this is the place to discuss it.

Guess Palin didn't hear Republican Dana Rohrabacher of the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs say it was Georgia's fault.

American intelligence confirms that the latest military actions in South Ossetia were started by Georgia and Russia’s position in the conflict was correct, says Republican California Congressman Dana Rohrabacher. He said the situation reminded him of the Bay of Tonkin incident, which the U.S. used as a pretext for beginning the war in Vietnam.

 

"The Russians are right! We're wrong! Georgia started it, the Russians ended it," Rohrabacher said at a hearing in the House of Representatives.

Quote above from here:

http://www.kommersant.com/p-13183/r_538/Russia_Georgia_conflict_U.S._hearings/

Watch the video of Rohrabacher saying it . . . yesterday:

Senator Dana Rohrabacher: "Russia is right" 10.09.08

http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-82279

And Ten-Day Palin and Twenty-Six-Year McCain are completely unaware of the Kars Treaty (circa 1921) that gave the Abkharians and South Ossetians their autonomy.

That's terrific!!  You will make a difference.  Best wishes on your canvassing for Obama votes in Mile High country.

That was just the title of the clip and I should have edited it. Sorry.

 Congratulations! Great choice, CO is a great place. Thank you so much for doing this. If we all do our part, we will win. We must!

I've got lots of Moms fired up and ready to hold a rally here in CT. We'll post it on the BO events page when we have it all nailed down. Thanks Allan, Pam and Christi.

Need your email address.

 Doesn't know what the Bush Doctrine is and  it seems she is ready to start world war three with Russia. Great news huh?

Hat Tip to Chris & David for the lesson on embedding.

Her body language is very insecure and then at times defensive. and her neck keeps turning red when she can't answer.

She scares the crap out of me.

Incisive analysis, state of the art. But why is America still playing by strangulating 18th c. antebellum rules while the rest of the world votes for and seats the actual winner of a popular majority? We must be a laughingstock. Obama is a quick study. He and his people would seem to understand the game at least as well as Kerry and Gore did in their years. Agreed that Voter Registration is crucial. Also is sustained effort, no chicken littling, no panicking. The way Obama won the primaries. The difference is that he's got to know when to drive the knife home, like he should have done to Clinton in Ohio.

Has anyone seen this interview? If this is what McCain brings to the debates...I think we'll be fine.

Their only answer to her foreign policy credentials is "energy." Are they really going to get away with that? I really, really hope not.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/11/mccain-interview-on-palin_n_125...

And I wouldn't have done it without everyone's support and examples here.  I can tell you that never in a million years did I think I would be not only working for a campaign but travelling to do so.

Mr friend is gung ho Obama but hasn't done any volunteer work so I figure if I can get her involved (plus maybe some of her friends) my efforts will have paid off.

I like the end of Kos diary I read the oter day where the author said, 'Get thee a stack of voter reg forms, go stand thee in the middle of a college campus yelling, "Fresh hot change.  Get yourself some fresh, hot change right here!"

I liked the article today on HuffPo and diared on Kos discussing the new emerging frame from which to win the election.  It avoided some of the armchairmen pitfalls I've seen elsewhere.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeffrey-feldman/the-winning-frame-has-eme_...

Tonight, I attended my first meeting for Obama Volunteers here in Panama City, Florida. I was truly floored. When I signed up, the email alert I recieved indicated there would be 24 people attending. I was disheartened but I was also determined that I will make a difference. I drove over the HQ downtown and upon arrival spotted someone parking a minivan with an Obama sticker. I followed them as I was unsure of of the exact local. I was pleasantly surpised upon arrival, there was already at least 25 people there and it was still about ten minutes before the meeting started. We ended up with approximately 70 people. The Obama director said they had between 70 and 100 showing up at our meetings in Bay County. I was really excited to see this many people in this Conservative stronghold. This is the area that gave Bush the election in 2000 (we are the ones in the CST zone that came in late if you remember) This is why I would really love Al to work Florida with us. I really, really think this thing is doable down here. I have a stack of voter registration cards, and I'm not afraid to use them....Get to work folks because YES. WE. CAN.

Weird Theology in Wasilla: A Look Inside Sarah Palin's Pentecostal Church

Palin's dedication to the Wasilla church is indicated by a Saturday, September 7, 2008, McClatchy news service story detailing possibly improper use of state travel funds by Palin for a trip she made to Wasilla, Alaska to attend, on June 8, 2008, both a Wasilla Assembly of God "Masters Commission" graduation ceremony and also a multi-church Wasilla area event known as "One Lord Sunday."

Sarah Palin's Churches and The Third Wave from Bruce Wilson on Vimeo.

Sarah Palin's churches are actively involved in a resurgent movement that was declared heretical by the Assemblies of God in 1949. This is the same 'Spiritual Warfare' movement that was featured in the award winning movie, "Jesus Camp," which showed young children being trained to do battle for the Lord. At least three of four of Palin's churches are involved with major organizations and leaders of this movement, which is referred to as The Third Wave of the Holy Spirit or the New Apostolic Reformation. The movement is training a young "Joel's Army" to take dominion over the United States and the world.

for the basic math lesson.  Jesus.  Did someone switch my coffee to decaf this morning?!?  Sorry.  But I'm still not clear why Al has Ohio on both lists, the states-with-averages AND on the states-with-single-polls, but like I said, it's no big.

 

Re: the Forum on Service, all I needed to hear was Pat Buchanan say it was a good night for McCain but a better one for Obama. 

 

Re: Palin's first interview, she's not polling great over on AOL given it's a bastion of GOP supporters:

Yes	53%
No	47%

Invitations for a BO & JB rally in New Hampshire. The first time we got to call lists of leaning and supporters as well as undecided. Lately been combing the voterlists for obscure id or persuasion. What a buzz! A dozen callers, now we need more phone lines. One phonebanker had to call from his truck because it was so loud.

You just scared the hell out of me.

Is this actually happening?

Is this really the Republican party in our country now, this is so not Reagan's party anymore. I am completely floored. It is so time for me to get off the blogs and head to NV. Two more days, I keep thinking two more days, can I wait that long?

Alexa's daily "scare the crap out of me" post. LOL. Alexa, I think that horoscope prediction must have anticipated those gosh darn hard foreign policy questions from Charlie Gibson.

I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm feeling really good about the campaign right now.  Obama seems to be enjoying himself, on message and looking very much the winner these past few days.  He always says he likes the 4th quarter so I guess that's no surprise to see him this way.  You can't help but like all the trends in almost all  the swing states and if AOL users are voting Palin at around 50% then that's a sign if I ever saw one!!  I'm an AOL member and believe me, that community is a rabid neocon, GOP, something something, nuthouse.  Even 538 isn't worrying me. 

I hope to be super busy at a local Chicago Obama campaign center all this weekend.  I've blocked out both days for work there.  And my gut is telling me to not give up on Georgia so that's where I'm headed the end of the month.  I know,I know, I know --the organizers are being pulled out to work in other states.  But there have been as big of swings in the states before during the primary and I just want to believe that the Obama demographic is being underpolled there.  What do I know...hope springs eternal. 

Everybody calm down! Obama is hitting back

I missed the embedding lesson... could someone lead me to it?

 Here is what I got in a email-this is for youtube, for pics it must be on a internet site, example photobucket.

If you want to embed a Youtube video the first thing to do is write in all the text you want for your comment in text box, then below the Text box you will see this Turn off style tools (HTML only), which you will want to click. This will show your text in html format, so you will see html code in your text that is not visible when posted. Now you need to put paste the Youtube code into your comment where you want it, at the top, bottom, or end of a paragragh etc. For example, If you go to a Youtube page on the top right side you will see two boxes one that says URL and another that says Embed. Embed is the code you want to copy by selecting the text in the box and copying it - it should look like the code below starting with <object.. and ending with </object>. If you see it starts and ends with those words like in the example below you have copied the code correctly.

Now copy the code into the text after you have pasted/copied this in your comment go back down below the text box, and click Turn on style tools, which will return you to the normal style tool box and out of HTML mode. You can add more text or edit if you wish. I did not provide the example here that was in the email.

Now click Preview and see if your video shows up in the preview comment and that everything looks correct in your comment. If so click submit to post it.

Any comments about her performance from Al or field hands ? I haven't seen it so far.

amk

Actually, that's not correct.  She said "Charlie" 37 times and winked at him much less frequently.  Seriously, that winking crap pisses me off.  She would be counseled by HR - if not fired - for that type of sexual overtones b.s if she worked in an office environment.   And poor Charlie.  He's shacked up at the crappy Days Inn in Juneau, just called her cell and got the crushing response to his fantasy evening plans when he heard  "THeeanks but No theeanks". 

We're sensitive to the fluid dynamics of the campaign, but we have a game plan and a strategy

“We’re familiar with this. And I’m sure between now and Nov. 4 there will be another period of hand-wringing and bed-wetting. It comes with the territory.”

“You can’t be so stubborn that you don’t react or adjust to events,” Plouffe said. “We have been given up for dead any number of times in this process, so it does stiffen your spine a little bit.”

“This is a very major development,” Plouffe said. “John McCain jettisoned his message and his strategy. It is now about change. We’re going to lean into that very, very hard.”

you can read the article here

In Plouffe we trust.
when was the last time this campaign let us down? after TX and OH , they aknowledged publicly that they should have taken a different approach, these people know what they are doing.

I heard she got the answer right when asked what is the capital of Alaska. Other than that, not so much.

The key to embedding here at The Field is this:

Type your text here in the box, then click on the "Turn off style tools (HTML only)" link directly below the box.

You'll get a pop-up message asking if you if you really want to do this, click "OK." Then, go to the video source you want to embed, and find it's embed code (on YouTube, you click on the icon at the bottom right corner of the video player). Copy that text and paste it here.

I'll use the interview where Rob Caldwell, a local reporter from Portland, Maine, demonstrates to the big boys at the network how to interview a Presidential candidate for an example:

 

Then, click Preview comment and all that HTML will turn into a video player!

amk

Who wants to go to war with Russia?

And how do we think that comment is going to play among the soft support she has among women 25-49?

the way to rest of the fucking msm. McCain was all blah, blah, repeating the same talking points without any direct answers. This guy creeps me out big time.

amk

This is the 4th of 4 interviews over the past few days.  I truly don't understand the debate about whether or not Obama should have been on this show. To me it's a no brainer because it's a highly rated show and it doesn't hurt his cause if he gets some of those viewers to either vote for him or not show up to vote for McCain.  There is just no way that someone would watch this show and say well, I was going to vote for Obama but now I've decided against it.  He did a great job with Billo and he might have had a few converts considering those who watch this show might have only seen him during the Rev. Wright fiasco.  Even if he's not your cup of tea, there's no doubt that Bill O'Reilly has high ratings because he has a damn good show.  Obama seems to thrive when he gets someone to have an intelligent discussion with him that involves the opposite viewpoint.

Couldn't figure out how to do that with my video. Thank you!

Something to lighten our moods while we contemplate our efforts for the home stretch.

 Glad you put the video here, I would not have seen otherwise. I just cannot stand BillO. He is rude, interupts and talks over BO. Barack did do a great job, though. Ha, Ha, Ha Sect. of State BillO, The windbag wants to play a basketball game for the job.

Sorry. Didn't realize no one could see it. It's ambiguousdog@hotmail.com

Yes Bill-O sucks. But I thought that interview went really well. Bill-O even seemed to be impressed. Seriously, Obama certainly didn't hurt himself.  Bill kept trying to trip him up and Obama just proved how much he understands all of the issues.

Seriously, people. We cannot let the opportunity to elect this man pass us by. Let's put this thing away, already!!

OK, so Al says we deliver the knock out punch on November 4th but Krugman does a pretty damned good job of delivering a good one tomorrow.

 

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/12/01115/6334/278/595686

 

Did you hear about how Barack Obama wants to have sex education in kindergarten, and called Sarah Palin a pig? Did you hear about how Ms. Palin told Congress, "Thanks, but no thanks" when it wanted to buy Alaska a Bridge to Nowhere?

These stories have two things in common: they’re all claims recently made by the McCain campaign — and they’re all out-and-out lies.

That's a riot!

God I loved Les Miserables.  Thanks for taking me back, and what a perfect selection for the video.

Thank you for those terrific video clips.  The O'Reilly segment is fascinating as it appears that Billo just got a "Chris Matthews" (shiver up his leg). O'Reilly was absolutely fawning over Obama and the talking-over/rudeness was clearly done as his schtick and not even as a way of jumping Obama. Barack was absolutely reveling in the sparring. Good practice for the debates, I guess.  I was nervous about this interview, but damn, he sunk a three right over O'Reilly's botoxed hairline. Good Game, Senator!

Take copies of salient articles with you. Keep them in your pocket so you can whip them out. Dont give them out. Just show them to substantiate your points. Doesn't matter whether they are over-folded and dog-eared.

You will need them if you do door-to-door.

The editorial board of the LVRJ is libertarian. Las Vegans and Henderson people dont read what we read on the web.

So, bring proof.

[P.S. I live here. I am leaving the country for five weeks next week, and am preparing my entirely ignorant suggestion for how to bag a Nevadan. Not very scientific. Culmination of hours in the bar and grocery stores. That kind of savvy. :-) I will be back to drive my community to the polls, and generally stir the pot.]

Tomorrow sounds like it could be a fun day...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/12/us/politics/12obama.html?hp

 

Love this quote:

“We’re sensitive to the fluid dynamics of the campaign, but we have a game plan and a strategy,” said Mr. Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe. “We’re familiar with this. And I’m sure between now and Nov. 4 there will be another period of hand-wringing and bed-wetting. It comes with the territory.”

Here's another Chicken Little inoculation from Mark Ambinder http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/every_few_weeks_former_sen.php#more

Didn't watch the fourth O'Reilly/Obama interview until you posted it.

My take? O'Reilly is voting for Obama. Obama won him over.

[They both knew each was bull-shitting the other.]

Watching the Sarah Palin interview, I couldn't help but think of this:

http://dailysource.org/palin#50

May be useful to Obama canvassers and volunteers.

amk

Sums up the press in this country:

"You know how it goes: If a politician says that black is white, the news report doesn’t say that he’s wrong, it reports that “some Democrats say” that he’s wrong."

KD

Plain's abc yesterday's interview, today morning ?

amk

can someone tell these people (pundits, bloggers, etc) to stop it with the---"Obama is not fighting for himself! At least McCain lies to get elected. Obama won't do what he needs to do".

God they drive me crazy. And I love Josh MArshall at TPM but he is one out of control concern-troll. Now he is criticizing Obama for not having huge rallies. OMFG. They are never happy with how he runs his campaign. I have emailed them countless timesa bout this but it seems to make no difference.

They don't get it I guess?

Just picking up on a number of responses to my post way up-thread...

I completely agree that the CLs create all sorts of negative energy that, while it doesn't affect the folks upstairs in the Obama campaign, doesn't help the grassroots or the general political atmosphere.

But I've come to feel that a certain kind of hysterical overreaction to the CLs does the same thing. At a certain point yelling "STFU!" even to people who really ought to STFU doesn't help matters.

Look, we all feel anxiety when polls are close, even if we rationally feel that Obama still holds the better cards here. And one way in which people deal with anxiety is to lash out at those who we feel are making the situation about which we're feeling anxious worse. For the CLs it's the Obama campaign; for many of the rest of us, it's the CLs (personally, I tend to get more angry at the MSM...but that's just me!).

So I go back to my original point: telling CLs to chill out, pointing out over and over again why there's reason for optimism and how one can help the effort in positive ways is great. We should all be doing more of that.

But accusing CLs of materially hurting the Obama campaign or, what's worse, preemptively suggesting that if Obama loses it will be the CLs fault, simply adds to the negativity that those concerned about the CLs are presumably fighting against.

And when I read this second kind of CL-criticism from Al and others, I feel like repeating the first kind to them: chill out and do something positive. Please!

Not the frontpagers, but the diaries.  It is a chicken little pandemic - bubonic plague style.  I've finally decided that I'm going to have to quarantine myself from that site until after November.  It's just become ridiculous now.

@amk-Thank you for that link to facts, I will take it with me to NV and keep it handy. Alexa-I am coming there and you are leaving ;-| Too bad, we could use you to scare the crap out of voters there ;) A good reminder about the RJ. Hadn't thought of that.

This should stop some of the CL-ing out there.

We will respond with speed and ferocity to John McCain’s attacks and we will take the fight to him, but we will do it on the big issues that matter to the American people. We will not allow John McCain and his band of Karl Rove disciples to make this big election about small things. Senator Biden will be integral to that effort, both in pushing back on the lies that we’ll continue to see from our opponents, and in keeping the debate focused on delivering for everyday Americans.

 Pow! Not POW :)

Here is a diary that agrees with you today.

 

Paul Reiser sums up how I feel about the state of the campaign today at huffpo.

for the presidential election

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/12/10151/1088/328/593610

KD

msm remains emasculated.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/otherviews/1156080,091008ebertpalin.article

amk

Hi Karen and anyone else interested, I don't know if this was addressed elsewhere in the comments but by the time I get through them all it'll be tonight so I'm submitting this. The mybo group Moms for Obama is organizing a national rally day on November 1 and they're looking for local organizers. If you go to barackobama.com and look up the group and join I'm sure they'll have a way for you to participate! You could also email the main organizer at MOMSFOROBAMA@sbcglobal.net I believe the Mamas for Obama group were talking about a rally as well but I could be getting confused. The moms lists have exploded with emails the past week or two and I can't get through most of it. Hope this helps!

I have not seen any data  anywhere confirming purchases for air time for the daily released ads by the McCain camp (the nasty ones). Every day this week these ads are being breathlessly covered by every progressive blogger and the magazines and the MSM and has all the arm chair campaign strategists pulling their hair out about how Obama is so weak. But where are they running? Have readers actually seen them on tv (not in the news?)? Are these ads just free advertising that change the topic, change the conversation, distract the voter on the latest outrage? I just do not understand how it is that McCain releases something that we do not even know is an actual ad and it makes the front page of every blog and thus they give the McCain camp what they want, the breathless coverage.

Yesterday Obama gave a fantastic interview at the Service Forum? Did the liberal blogs ven cover this? No. He gave a great speech on the trail. Ar ehis townhlass even posted on places like TPM? No. The liberal bloggers (Al excluded of course) have become McCain central. They make people click on his ads, make the world spin around him instead of focusing on our candidate and what he is trying to do. There is ZERO coverage of what Obama is actually doing every day. There is ZERO coverage of Biden (who is on the trail but the blogs don't seem to care or cover him unless he is doing what they think he should be doing. Sadly AFP did cover him this week and people seemed to be too busy saying he was not doing anything to include the link with his forceful comments against McCain. The one time the blogs linked to Biden---when the MSM tried to make a big deal out his answer to a question that made Hillary look bad and he defended her. That was it).

McCain and crew realised early this cycle that they did not have a visible internet presence. So what did they do?  They took over the liberal presence, they are manipulating the leading liberal blogs , just as they manipulate the MSM.  All to their own advantage. And places like TPM and others (again, Al is excluded from this) have all fallen for this hook, line and sinker. Dooes no one realize this?

They are all being played.

My leaving wasn't planned until two weeks ago. It's not a pleasure trip, believe me.

As for scaring the crap out of voters...actually, in contradiction to the achtung tone of some of my posts, I use humor with incontrovertible facts to make my points. My favorite opening technique in bars esp. when I hear bubbas sitting nearby me farting the same verbal effluvia they've been producing for years, is to interject "You dont really believe that shit, do you?" Rubbahumnahumnayumna! Let the games begin. I listen to every word: it's like a boil, it has to be lanced. But I'm prepared.

I dont do any of this when phonebanking. Not allowed under the rules here. And it's not effective, anyway. Incredible care and good manners are.

TPM was the same all the way through the primaries. Chicken Littling (when did that become a verb?) and focusing on silly issues  equals page views and comments. Same as the MSM.

@Ben Alpers

The first 5 paragraphs of that should be a diary somewhere. Well played.

Ben - I don't care if I'm the only one to think this way, it remains my informed belief that the Chicken Littles are self-indulgent political neophytes that mistake themselves for "experts on how to win", who by and large cite "facts" to justify their stupid emotional opinions that are damaging falsehoods. I remain divorced from them, they get nothing but mocking and scorn from me, and I will continue that way through November.

I also think your advice - "chill out and do something positive please" - contains its own falsehood: If you don't think I'm spending most of my time on doing something positive, why the hell do you even read this blog? 

I will continue to push back against panic here and everywhere, and beyond this one year: it's "the left's" biggest problem, and has lost it, in the USA anyway, every single major battle in generations. My hatred and contempt for spreaders of panic is basic to everything that I am. I wish they would join the other side: that's how harmful they are.

I think we can all agree chicken littling is harmful, I think the discussion should be what should we tell people who don't respond to an Al style innoculation on other sites. Plouffe has laid out his strategy for the next few weeks, maybe we need a new strategy for dealing with resistant strains of Chicken Littlism. Does thefield own a quarantine chamber?

When I'm over at the other sites, it's hard to see that it really is the ground game. People want Obama to bloody up McCain/Palin. Frankly, I'd like to see some hard-hitting myself, but not based on petty stuff. Maybe surrogates could handle that...such as the latest negatives that have come out regarding Gov. Palin and her tenure in Alaska. Heck, those bloggers who have the capability to make those devastating viral videos can do some damage as well! (Oh, for the loss of left-leaning 527s...)

In any case, I live in Blue Southern Maryland and I'm going to find a way to help turn neighboring VA blue!

It is maddening to see so many blogs that are in fact harmful to Obama on supposedly pro-Obama sites. I just want to send you peace today because I know you have worked so hard to keep everyone clear-headed and focused on the goal of electing Obama.

These folks have so much faith in the power of the GOP to destroy any good and righteous movement and have so little faith in their own ability to stand strong against the on-slaught, run through it and emerge victorious in the end.

They are wounded. They have been victimized over and over again, they know in their souls that Obama is the man for this dark hour and they are scared out of their minds that they will have to suffer needlessly for many more years. It's hard to see straight when hope is within arms reach and to see that light, that hope under siege by an enemy that has succeeded before. This is torturous for those with faith in the enemy. This is torture for the fearful. It is their lives, their childrens lives that have been held hostage by the greed and avarice of the GOP and they are quite desperate at this point, to be set free. These "chicken littles" are aware that if their captors succeed, these same captors will be even more imboldened to make our lives even less livable than they are now. This is a terrifying prospect.

Have pity.

Those of us with faith in our own efforts, faith that evil cannot overcome the forceful might of good. Those of us who have watched in awe, the sheer brilliance of the Obama campaign and the passion and drive of it's supporters and know that this is no ordinary moment, we are fortunate because our minds are at peace and our spirits are calm. We know something beyond even the ability of the GOP to game is at hand. We are in awe that we are on earth in this place at this moment, that we have been picked to be here at this moment in time to bear witness to and usher forth a new day. We are stunned and overwhelmed with gratitude that so many moments in our colllective history converged to give us this miracle.  And we are here.

Al, be grateful to every step on your journey that has allowed you to see this beautiful time in the history of mankind as an opportunity to participate in a miracle. Take pity on those who are in a prison of anxiety, doubt and fear. Instead of being disturbed by their screams of agony, imagine instead, their faces when they walk out of that prison for the first time in years a brand new day full of hope and possiblilities dawning over the horizon.

Yes We Can.

@Anonymous 11:31 a.m.

I live in the batttleground of Michigan and I can attest to your feeling that we are being "played" by the McCain campaign. Over the past week I have seen at least 5 different Obama ads played on my television. They are not all attack ads. One in particular features Joe Biden giving a biographical sketch of Barack (I thought this one was only to play in PA). Anyway, in that same time period I have seen only two different McCain ads, and neither of them are the more scurrilous ones the blogs have been obsessing over. That one distorting Barack's record on sex education? Haven't seen it on local TV. I haven't seen any of McCain's celebrity ads in about two weeks or that Ayers ad for even longer. Only "The Mavericks" with Palin and one grouping Obama with Washington liberals and their opposition to off shore drilling remain. If it weren't for the blogs and cable TV Barack is the one I would see most. In my opinion the McCain campaign are putting those video press releases out there as "cat nip" for the national media and they are eating it up. I wonder how many of these bloggers are really in touch with what is going on on the ground? Unlike me, my husband is blissfully ignorant of what is going on the behind the scenes so when something does bubble up through the local media is is "appropriately" outraged and not caught up in the "faux" outrage. But seeing that I am now caught up in the fascination of this ongoing train wreck called the McCain campaign, sometimes I envy his biss. : )

 

 Have a great trip, sorry you have to go. I just have typed "kidding" at the end of that statement, because I was joking with you about the earlier post that got me.

Interesting. I just called NV, where some family members live. My sister in law, born in Panama (just like John McCain!) becomes a citizen today. Exciting stuff. She becomes become a citizen just before voting reg deadline expires, eligible to vote in an important presidential election, and lives in a state where her vote really, really matters. What a fantastic time to become a citizen.

. . .  

It might be interesting to create a PDF of the articles you reference (tho a specific list would be good). Then I can give that to ppl I know who are canvassing. Spread the love.

I"m thinking that Matt Welch's articles about McCain.. Be Afraid of President McCain. Haven't yet read the new one in The Atlantic. If there's still life to this thread, this'd be a good place to suggest worthwhile articles to include in a Canvass Kit.

Also, excellent thought at Obsidian Wings about the two candidates, their VP decisions, and what it says of each. Thoughtful. Devastating.

Others? List them here!

The ads are playing. I was on the fone w/ someone in Pennsylvania yesterday, who said that yes, they were seeing LOTS of advertising. He mentioned one McCain one that was "so nasty, so vile" (or words to that effect). I asked if it was the sex ed one, he said no. Didn't get specifics on which one it is. But take that as one small data point that McCain is running ads in one major swing state.