They're Out Here: Altoona is McCain Country

You've just seriously depressed me. :-(

I know that wasn't the intent, but still...

"Obama was born with a silver spoon in his mouth."

I don't even know what to say to that.

Just get on the Obama website and volunteer to make phone calls. Or, if you're close enough to Pennsylvania to get there, volunteer to register new voters.

I'm grateful for Al's analysis. Whether we're up or down, the polls are a trap. There's only one way to win. On the ground.

So is the takeaway here that the real way to win this is basically like the primaries?  Rack up big wins in cities and keep losses in places like Altoona as low as possible?

Excellent work, Al.

I could smell the popcorn in the bowling alley.

 

 

Al, were you able to get a feel for Bucks County and NE Philly? That is the area that was most disappointing in the primary. I wasn't expecting much from Altoona though it is disheartening to see people still repeating the same things (Obama is a Muslim born with a silver spoon in his mouth?). How do you reach people who are not intersted in learning any new information that conflicts with their worldview and preconceived notions?

The recent polling in PA does look better now than it did earlier, though.

Just wish it was better news. Al, are you planning to do any reporting in western PA? Would love to get a feel for Allegheny & Westmoreland counties.

because I am stunned at the state of exuberance I am witnessing in the liberal blogs because of today's polls. There are people who actually think that this thing is in the bag...it's maddening.

Help out the Obama campaign in Altoona!

Stop by or call.

1019 Logan Blvd.

814-943-1447

Al, I hope you get a chance to correct that guy or post something in the "Meer" because I just learned today that Obama is a Muslin!  Yup, I saw it on the tee vee today.  On CNN they talked to a guy in Florida who is against Obama the Muslin.  I haven't researched it yet to find out if the terrorists are also Muslins.  Who knew?  We've been fearing the wrong group! 

 http://www.cfnews13.com/News/Local/2008/9/10/obama_sign_in_yard_stirs_up_neighbors.html?refresh=1

All joking aside, this is just incredible to see the continued ignorance in our electorate. But I guess we knew that ignorance exists as that's the only way Mr. George 22% is sleeping at the White House tonight. 

As a related story, the other day at the Obama campaign office, a woman called in and wanted to go with us to canvas in Michigan but first wanted to let us know that she was Muslim and would be wearing the traditional head cover over her hair.  She didn't want it to be a problem.  The person who took the call said she would refer it to her supervisor and call her back.  It's sad that a volunteer is concerned about such a thing. 

Wow just wow. I don't even know what to think after reading this sentence. I mean, seriously?

As always, very interesting perspective, Al.  Thank you.

Not that I needed it, but this certainly lights a fire!  As previously planned, I'm headed to Norristown, PA Sat & Sun with 10 others from Larchmont / New Rochelle.  There is also a group going down for the day on Saturday from Rye, NY. 

My husband is from Philly and his immediate and extended family are working hard there on Obama's behalf.

"Fired up, ready to go!"

Al,

You got it right on.

One of my best friends is an Altoona resident and he told me last week about having his morning coffee with three regulars who were life-long Democrats. In the quiet of that conversation, they all said they would not vote for a black man.

My friend was stunned. He could not believe they were saying such a thing out loud. He does have a sense that they may not vote at all since they didn't profess much affection for McCain.

I'm from the Williamsport, PA area and know that this will be an issue here as well.

Notwithstanding the polls, success will come from massive SE PA turnout with help from the Harrisburg and Allentown areas. I am not optimistic about SW PA at all.

Carville was right that PA is a lot more like Alabama than most of us would like it to be.

EMBARRASSING!!

Please report back on your trip. My wife and I are doing the same trip over Columbus Day weekend, coming down from Long Island.

Albany, NY for Obama was going to send volunteers to NH and PA on alternating weekends. However, on our first PA weekend, they rerouted us to NH b/c they said the national campaign had flooded the state with volunteers and there was no housing. I hope that was true. Anyway, I'm going to PA this weekend for the last days of voter registration. In NH (where I've been for the past 4 weekends), it also seems very tight, seems like 47 Obama/43 McCain. It helped to hear Nate Silver verify this, that the economic crisis didn't actually play into Obama's hands in NH b/c that's what I was seeing on the ground. NH just seems adverse to bigger gov't, the whole "live free or die" thing. In NH, another volunteer on my team was a Muslim and wore a head scarf. She'll also be going to PA this weekend. I think she's incredibly brave.

that 3/10 of those people who publically say they won't vote for obama will once they are in the privacy of the polling booth.

Thanks for the reporting. I think that this should be cross posted in Daily Kos.

Please, kind sir, take your on-the-ground journalism, "facts" such as the stark contrasts between Appalacia and Oregon (is a white not simply a white?; latinos are latinos, whether they are Spaniards or Puerto Ricans), and insinuation that pollsters may not be perfect, and take them straight back to Mexico, or whatever progressive state that you call home ....

Anyway, that's my attempt at snark.

Here's a theory that I'd like to float: Some of the movement we're starting to see in polls is actually the ground game working. In our office at least, the first 6 weeks of the ground game are largely about getting volunteers together. You have a rag-tag group of 15 people who each call 100 which quickly turns into a legion. It's exponential growth. From your experience doing ground work, Al, might this be true?

Second, I think that a fair number of PA students / young professionals are voting at home absentee from PA. Not sure if polls catch that.

Third, folks who fear that it's all ground game, just be grateful that you voted / supported for someone who "invested in a ground game" back in the primaries. It's that kind of investment 6 months ago that's paying off now -- which Al is catching (I think). It's not that you can't do anything about it;  in part you already did by supporting the candidate who has played the corporate media system but has also sought to go around it.

Thanks, Al, for having the foresight to go out and document this wonderful moment in American history. I can't tell you how much I've learned.

 

that shot of realism?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QIGJTHdH50

Christi, I am from a town in Westmoreland County (western PA) and I imagine it is polling the same as Altoona. Reading Al's great story "took me home". There will be some working-class democrats that will vote for Obama because the economy is so bad but mostly, it will go for McCain. Don't forget that the "famous" Nash McCabe from one of hte primary debates came from Westmoreland County. She is the one who asked Obama about the flag pin or one of those other silly things.

Face to face voter contact does help people to feel more comfortable voting their conscience. As Al noted the sotto voce admission of support is typical of a community where there are more potential support kept in check by the repeated public derision. Sometimes even one voice standing up to the crowd will turn the tide of opinion, sometimes not. Simple conversation helps change the perception of the norm. Every vote counts.

Of course there are other circumstances like the series of phone conversations I had last night, I was calling into a town that has a fundamentalist splinter group trying to take the town over. I got a series of rabid pro-life activists whip their script on me, and there was really no point in answering them with anything other than Ok then, thank you.

Thanks Al for posts like this that help us keep our eye on the ball.

Al,

That’s some interesting anecdotal evidence, but I’ve got some anecdotal evidence of my own that says you’re wrong on that dismal assessment of Blair County voters.

I live in Altoona and teach government in a small rural school district that is traditionally more conservative than the city itself. In ’04 I ran a mock election at my school. Bush beat Kerry 70-30 despite a spirited campaign by the student body’s liberal minority.

But four years later, Bush can’t buy a complement from the vast majority of my students and enthusiasm for Obama is higher than I EVER would have guessed. In fact, the Obama campaign in the mock election currently has more volunteers than the McCain campaign.

I’ve been teaching at this school for 10 years and thought I had a pretty good understanding of the political pulse of my students and I never, ever would have predicted Obama’s appeal.  It’s astounding.

I know this is not very scientific (not like, say…walking into a bowling alley) but ask any teacher and they will tell you that generally students get their politics at home.

So based on that I would be willing to bet (on my teacher’s salary, no less!) that Obama will do significantly better than Kerry did in Blair County in ’04. My guess is at least 5-7 points better…and if we do that, how could Obama possibly lose PA?

Central PA Civics Teacher - You could be right. (And if the Obama vote is "five to seven percent" better in Altoona than it was in 04, yes, agreed, it will be a landslide statewide.)

Of the ten million or so Americans that have died since the 2004 elections, 78 percent of them were over 65 (a group that Bush won, 52 percent to 47 percent), and kids that were 14 back then (those that voted in the mock election in your school, 70-30 for Bush, but that of course doesn't mean they feel that way today) will be of voting age. One of the big questions in 2008 is how that passing of the guard will impact the elections.

Please do check back with us once your school's mock election has taken place. (I did mention Altoona schoolteachers, after all!) If you don't want to post the results here please do send them, and any other relevant info, via email to narconews@gmail.com. Thanks!

It is good to remember, that, in the end analysis, we are not as divided as our politics would suggest. (This is what I think Obama would say in response to this report anyway.) I'd bet on the better judgement of the people of the Americas when it comes to Barak Obama and the potential to engage positive change at this juncture. Everyday folk have been sucker-punched by the forces of greed and increasingly dissonant voices clinging to cynicism and apathy. My feeling is that we are on the edge of many surprises in this last month leading to the election. Yes we can!

@Nancy, I volunteered at that HQ during the primaries and remember it well. I had not realized that part of the country was so behind the times until then. A real eye-opener.

Pennsylvania needs to see this!

Digg the above posted video here.

because I am stunned at the state of exuberance I am witnessing in the liberal blogs because of today's polls. There are people who actually think that this thing is in the bag...it's maddening.

 

It's the same people who said Obama has lost the race already and there is no use in volunteering anymore when he was down in polls just two weeks ago. They will use any excuse to sit on their butt instead of working for a victory.

The focus on polls is pretty infurating, nobody ever won or lost a race through polling, the game is made on the ground, and instead of worrying over polls on the Internet those people should work to convert voters. Or at least fight the Republican's party successfull campaign to stick the current economic woes on the Democrats (citing Clinton' and Carter's "forcing the poor financial sector to give out mortgages to minorities and other rabble" (and making a few trillions while doing so).

Dear Al,

Thanks for this.  I have relatives in Altoona and in Butler, PA (Western Pa.)  It really took me back to my roots.

This is an accurate reflection of the cultural mindset in both these areas.  My parents are highly educated white middle class professionals who have always voted Republican.  Mom campaigned for Barry Goldwater in 1964.  They have not budged an inch in their support for McCain even though neither of them voted for him in the primaries---he wasn't 'evangelical' enough!  They love Palin and resist any criticism of her as being the 'typical left-wing' hate speech and it only hardens their support of her.

Anyway, just thought you'd be interested in the work of a UK reporter who went to Medina, Ohio.  Sounds like similar dynamics in another small town in the region.  Women there are 'uncomfortable' voting for someone like Obama, because he is not like them.  Here's the link:http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4862580.ece

Al,

Being a HUGE baseball fan, I so enjoyed the Dan Rather interview of Nate a few weeks ago.  All of the questions from Dan were very, very good and Nate gave some very insightful answers.  I got our CFO at the company checking 538 every day and he absolutely loves Nate's direct numbers approach to the election as well as his succinct summary of the days events in his blog.  He said to me the other day, "I'll have to look it up but I bet you anything he is a Uof C grad just from his complete analytical approach to everything." (He is.)  And Dan Rather appears to have done considerable homework to prepare for the interview - very impressive. 

And for some good Thursday morning news, Rasmussen just posted Obama up by 3 in N.C. and hitting 50%.  Is that one of your "swing thru" states?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election

This is the right time and I believe that the stars are aligned. We are going to elect a black man to live in the white house. Its unbelievable and exciting. But Appalachia will have to dragged along kicking and screaming. Its not because they are white that they don't like him but IT IS because he is black.

 

There are a whole bunch of us (liberals over 45), that just can't believe that this is actually going to happen. We are in touch with the revolutionary nature of this event. Those folks in Appalachia and the rust belt used to have the final say on democratic presidential politics. Their hold on the dem party may finally be over. hallelujah.

 

 

I'm also in Westmoreland County! And the scene you described in Altoona sounds very familiar.  I don't expect Obama will do well in my county - Bush beat Kerry here by nearly 13 points.  Many of the surrounding counties were very close, however, including counties like Lawrence, Mercer and Greene which are all counties which you would assume would go Republican but were all within 3 points.  I don't believe Teresa Heinz Kerry still owns Heinz and I don't believe she was a big factor in Kerry's performance in Allegheny, Washington or Beaver counties (nor do I think she is particularly well known or beloved by the average voter). 

 

I have been volunteering for the campaign and I feel confident that his ground game is good enough that he will get the votes he needs out of western Pennsylvania. 

Assuming you haven't been through here already, I recommend Sharky's in Latrobe (that's where Obama went after his townhall here) or Rick's Sports Bar & Grill on Rt. 22 in Export. Either of those places would give you the flavor of this area.

Steve, it seems to me that every time Obama says he trusts the judgment of American voters he puts one important qualifier in there. They will make the right choice "once they have the information on the issue".

That is the crux here. The Obama campaign is fighting ignorance. ("Obama was born with a silver spoon in his mouth.") It is reflected throughout the campaign strategy and especially in the town halls and volunteer efforts.

Let's remember how many people thought (and still think) Saddam Hussein had something to do with 9/11.

Let's remember how many fans Palin has despite the fact (or because of the fact?) that she is a "young earther" and believes that humans were alive in the time of dinosaurs.

Let's reflect on how much racism is based on ignorance.

I'm optimistic too, but we are in the fight of our life and it doesn't end if Obama becomes president.

Forgive my harsh, but I guess the good news is that because PA is the second oldest state (after Florida, of course) many of the ignorati will be gone before too long. Now if only we could figure out a way to end the cycle of stupid among those who remain and breed.

And in keeping with the depressing tenor of the piece, I was almost shocked recently to see how narrow Obama's lead is in SE Pa - along the lines of 44-38, or some such. In order to carry PA, we need to kill here in Montco, as well as Bucks and Philly counties, and hopefully carry decent majorities in Delaware and Chester counties. Rendell won big by winning in, I think, ten counties total, but he racked up landslide majorities in those areas. 51% won't get the job done.

Until you change a point of view...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTnCHP-9Wdo&feature=related

Here's to all of you who are working so hard to bring it home.  Thank you.

Once those are up and running, it might make the folks there see that not all change is bad.  (Also, Al:  Check out how Pittsburgh and environs are working to revitalize their industrial base by going green.)

MAK, Be careful...some of those Ignorati are my family!

Yea!  I thought it was looking really close there last weekend. On Monday, I had posted a comment that I thought we might be within 5 there so given this is Rasmussen, I would say we are within 4! 

There were false rumors about Obama campaign offices closing a month or so ago.  There is a TON of work being done in Georgia so it still might happen for us.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Catherine Cain (who can't remember her password at work and who should be working...)

That is so scary to some of these areas. I would imagine the fine folks of Altoona have seen a lot of change. Change isn't always good. Even when it is touted as positive, like NAFTA, the change that followed was not a positive thing. So when someone comes along who is presenting Change you can believe in, pehaps residents figure. We've been there and done that look where it's gotten us. Do you suppose the message that we all see as positive is seen as a negative in some areas?

The Obama campaign is fighting ignorance. ("Obama was born with a silver spoon in his mouth.") It is reflected throughout the campaign strategy and especially in the town halls and volunteer efforts.

At the end of the first presidential debate, Obama explained that he got his name from his Kenyan father. I got a jolt, realizing that he was very, very cognizant that there are people who don't know that yet. In fact, there are probably people who saw Obama speak for the very first time when they watched that debate -- and the same will be true for the next debates.

McCain's debate was bad for him in part because he kept making references to items from Senate procedure or from earlier in the campaign (like the Obama seal), which non-political junkies don't know about and certainly don't care about.

It's very important not to assume that people have the same information. They don't. And so listening is very, very important, so that we can build on their knowledge and connect to them in a comfortable way.

I'm phonebanking for Ohama and Tom Allen and I tell people that Susan Collins has done good things for the state BUT she has also voted for the Bush agenda quite a lot. If you don't start where people are, you are never going to move them your direction.

While they may not be thrilled about Obama, McCain/Palin isn't coming up to the "reassurance" line for the Presidency either. If Obama can reassure them that it's okay to sit this one out, then he will win the state anyway even if he doesn't win those counties.

That's why Obama took a laid-back approach during the first debate. He knew he needed to reassure America that he wasn't some crazy radical who would overturn everything. That was more important to his electoral chances than playing verbal gladiator.

This reassurance will be key in keeping a lot of less-than enthused about McCain voters home. McCain apparently has no ground game to think of and a hands-off approach to the one group that could supply one-the religious right. Without strong outreach, a lot of Republicans may not exert the effort, especially if it looks like Obama could win the state, or McCain win it anyway.

Or for that matter, Mississippi and Texas, it would be a disaster for McCain if they started looking like they could be competitive. Does he send limited resources to those places to keep them out of reach, or hope that enough Republicans will vote out of party loyalty to keep them safely Republican? Unlike Obama who has field offices everywhere, unlimited funding and volunteeers, McCain must pick his battles carefully. If he feels he has to defend some of these states, there may be another, more swing state that slips out of his grasp because he has no ground game and limited funds.

Obama could more readily steal a state than McCain defend one. Obama could ramp up already existing volunteer operations, McCain build one from scratch.

I mean sure, yeah, there are racists in rural PA, but the immediate jump to "Pennsylvania will go down to the wire" is illogical and overreactive. You simply can't make that inference based on anecdotal evidence, especially when pollster after pollster has Obama pulling in hefty leads.

Is the ground game necessary to realize those margins? Yes, absolutely, but no matter what you encounter in Altoona, the hard data isn't just some illusion. Weren't you arguing against the Bradley Effect just a few weeks ago?

We're winning, folks, and winning motivates people and demotivates our enemies. Doom and gloom won't get people out on the streets, but a sense that something is really happening, that change is so close that we can taste it, will.

Off topic, but tangentially related:  440 United Mine Workers of America stayed home from work in West Virginia on Monday to protest management letting the NRA onto company property so they could develop anti-Obama propaganda using union workers as props.

This may seem small--but it does show that organized workers know that McLame's adgenda is simply no good for labor.

The right of the ruling class always uses culture war to divide the working class--because their adgenda would configure us all into wage-slaves and alienated, depoliticized consumers.   Make no mistake, the history of worker-unity must be supressed from people's general awareness so that they can foist austerity on the population.

They don't want you to understand that the fate of the folks across town (that might look different and have a different religion) is tied to our own well-being.  The project of rebuilding the US has everything to do with establishing these links that have been lost, submerged, and forgotten.

As I have stated before, economic populism must be tied with political and economic policy.  Watch how red-states and illusory divisions will fall when people organize out of sheer necessity again in this nation.

There is nothing shameful about true human solidarity, love of country, and hope.   When these healthy tendencies are lost, then we lose our footing and wander aimlessly in a cloud of consumerist squalor.

Apathy and alienated consumerism will not heal this nation--never has, never will.

Union solidarity and strenght makes life better on every corner of this earth.  MLK, Jr. knew this, and so does Obama.  But this has to be made palpable by the actions of the people united, forging alliances and forcing change.

The analogy/metaphor of 'birth', or 're-birth' is apt at this time.

The dream propagated by the rightwing of dis-continuous worker-bees/consumers cloistering themselves apart from one another and only seeking their own selfish interests has been exposed as a crack-pipe delusion, a lie for the frightened and the lazy, a nightmare where the deeper meanings about what it is to be truely human are forgotten.

 

 

To be clear, other than being the widow of John Heinz, Teresa Heinz Kerry has no connection to the operation of the Heinz Food company.

http://www.heinz.com/our-company/press-room/press-releases/press-release...

 

She is wealthy because of her family's personal wealth (and to a much larger degree) because her late husband was, to say the least, loaded with money made off of the family company.  However she no longer involved in any part of the company operations, other than owning a number of shares through her late husband's estate.

 

I live in Allegheny County.  My expectation is that Obama will carry this county by about a 57-43 margin.  Kerry and Gore carried it by similar numbers, on their way to winning PA.  (I believe Senator Harris Wofford carried this county somehting like 60-40 on his way to victory a while back (early 90s, I think), but since that time, this county has become a bit more Republican. )

 

If Obama gets out the vote, and meets or exceeds 57-43 in Allegheny, I believe it will be very hard for McCain to win Pennsylvania.

 

 

It is interesting that one of Altoona's industries is Mallo Cups. I really like them, but I had a very bad experience when I was young in another chocolate town in rural PA, Hershey. it is tourist town and people like chocolate but it represents a terrifying memory to me. in my camp days when young we did a day outing to Hershey. a small group of my friends and I strayed from the tourist area into the townie section and we were confronted by a group of young townies that pulled knives and threatened us. I had a broken arm in a cast but we all escaped bolting right through them. but since then I have traveled many many time thru the state on the PA TurnPike, and never stopped. memories like that never fade and I think these folks have many demons that hold on to them.

question: do you know why in the NE highways are called 'TurnPikes'? I think it has to do with Pres. Eisenhower. Ike.

also: Hershey built his empire on his discover of how to keep milk chocolate from spoiling. it ised to go bad like milk does over time.

Al, this is one sweetly written report.

Christi, great vid.

Is McCain pulling out of Michigan?!??

 

http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/02/michi-gone/

McCain is pulling out of Michigan !!!

 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/McCain_pulling_out_of_...

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/McCain_pulling_out_of_Michigan.html#comments

 

 

Game. On.

This push in the ground game has to be nonstop from here on out. It can be done, it stared us in the face in Dec 07 when Barack inched just slightly ahead, then had a bigger margin just days before the caucus. Remember too that he was down here by 20 points in the summer of 07--look what the ground game did to that point difference.

Kudos to all of you who ARE the ground game in so many places and who are making a difference.

ACCORDING TO politico.com
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/McCain_pulling_out_of_...

I guess Obama successfully built the fire wall :0

As stated above. McCain is moving out of Michigan. His staff will split up  and  go to Wisconsin, Ohio and Virginia. McCain is opening more offices in Virginia. Moreover, Jerry Falwell's university in Virginia, Liberty University  is conducting a voter  registration drive.  See link:  http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/30/conservative.liberty.university/

 

Does this mean that we get more coverage from Al in NC instead of MI?  

On another note, I always figured that the lack of a primary in MI was dragging Obama's numbers down there but that as he campaigned there more, his numbers would improve.  The economy there is so bad that it is hard to see it as flipping in a close election.  I also think that it is culturally more Obama-friendly than OH or PA.  Glad that this theory was confirmed.

 

If MI is off the table, but FL, NC, IN, and MO on it, the math looks tough for McCain.  He has a lot of ground to defend.  If he doesn't win PA, he is going to have to run the table in the larger Bush states.  If he loses PA and FL, the election is over.

 

Time to make bets on the next state that he pulls out of.  IA, MN, WI, NM and PA would seem to be the main contenders . . .

The reason that towns and cities in the north are white is because they are white on purpose. It isn't that black Americans prefer cities. It is because blacks were driven out of towns and cities all over the north and settled in cities where they could. These all-white towns were "sundown towns", because they did not allow blacks in the town after sundown. They occurred, and still occur, all over the northern states of America. Many towns still discourage blacks from moving in.

 

This was a northern practice, more so than southern, although most people believe racism is a primarily southern thing. Read James Loewen's "Sundown Towns" for a complete discussion:

http://www.uvm.edu/~jloewen/sundowntowns.php

Klaus - The flip-side of "Chicken Littling" when the polls go down is believing them too much when they go up. It's the same nonsense: believing the polls too much.

There's nothing "doom and gloom" about identifying each side's base vote coldly and rationally, while still pointing out the path to victory. To the contrary, if I always claim it's all good news, you shouldn't believe me whenever I tell you there is good news! The idea that one has to put a sickly sweet "smiley face" on every piece of information, whether it's bad or good, ignoring that there are setbacks as well as advances, is precisely what drives the Chicken Littling when bad news happens.

Plus, I'm the guy who put the term "Chicken Little" into the popular political lexicon, so I get to define what it means!

It is so depressing to hear phrases like "culturally republican" and totally understand what that phrase is accurately describing. What is wrong with these people?