Tipping Point

I think the GOP candidates will sign and probably

McCain will take credit for 'bringing them into the fold'

this was his 'gimmick' or gambit if you call it.

Smacks of irresponsibility, there is no window dressing this bailout.

What voters remember is what was the source of the problem originally, he cannot distance himself from the failure, thats the bottom line

Of Russian Roulette. The gamble he made was that Obama would decide to honor a suspension that he had no imput on due to a sense of "Guilt". Maybe that works with the previous kind of candidates that Democrats have put up since 1980- white people who find themselves apologizing for daring to be liberal during the sixties. But Obama is the wrong generation, race, and experience for that to work. He's not from the Beltway, so he doesn't fear the opinion of the opinion makers. He has no "courage or cowardice" moment via Vietnam, so no guilt there, either. But McCain has no other game plan except the tired outworn one that was handed down from Nixon and Reagan. He has to assume that Obama can be guilted into giving up his legitimate rights because that's what liberals do.

Obama came up the hard way through Chicago politics. He's surrounded by people who are also hard-edge folks who owe nothing to the good will of the Beltway  and who will support him in this stand.

stunningly, McCain has mangaged to make this an even better week for Obama politically by painting himself into a corner:

show up to the debate with no deal after he said he wouldn't, and he looks even weaker than he does now. (especially since the meme is out there that he torpedoed the deal by his presence anyway.)

but fail to show up and cede that many million eyes to Obama and an empty chair?

well, that would be just as sweet as cherry pie.

i must say, aside from the fact that our economy is teetering on the brink of annihilation, i have been positively giddy this week, election-wise!

new Selzer poll has Obama +13!  Can you say "firewall successfully erected"?!?!?!?  If the American people can hold a memory for a month, that is.....

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/26/95356/8876/57/611170

First Read is reporting that by law there can be no "empty chair" debate if McCain doesn't show. I'm sure Obama has considered that aspect, but I wonder what logistics he has in mind for the town hall meeting he's proposed for that scenario, if all the preparations that were made for the debate can't be used...

If McCain does show, which he has to at this point, perhaps Lehrer will ask him about his history of canceling or negotiating for fewer debates as he did against W.

I love that Obama has infused the "town hall" language into the mix if McCain doesn't show. Great, Barack can do his own town hall and we'll see if McCain keeps whining about it.

I see two things on Republican radar that could come out of McCain parachuting in and House Republicans breaking off from negotiations that it's now clear they engaged on in bad faith:

1.  McCain looks maverickical.  He publicly balks at Bush and Senate Republicans as well as Obama.  Even though he has zero influence, even among House Republicans, he will be there and as has been said he has absolutely nothing to lose.  This is being a drama queen at its worst.  Olbermann describes it has hitting the "reset" button.  Any time the conversation goes against him he tries to change the topic.  In the past it has worked as a temporary fix, but my guess is that voters are starting to wonder whether if everything's a crisis he won't be able to handle the pressures of office.  It's the temperament, stupid.

2.  As for Republicans of the House variety, they hope his maverickiness will rub off on them.  Remember, they're in as much trouble in the polls as McCain, so this is as much their gambit as his.  They get to oppose Bush, oppose moderate Republicans, and paint Democrats as in the pockets of Wall Street.  Note that they refer to the current plan as the Paulson plan, as though the past three days hadn't even happened.

This is perfect Chicken Little material, as one could paint a scenario where McCain completely re-writes the script and the point of the contest.  Once it became clear that the public is hopping mad about the whole thing there seemed to be a chance he could whip that up into a frenzy.

But it's far more likely that the uncertainty raised by the Republican rebellion will tank the markets and cause even more panic, leading to a clamoring for a decent plan--and a resolution by the voters to vote Obama in to oversee it.  Obama is doing a great job of stoking doubts about McCain's 'temperament.'  Forget who he might be coddling or whether his intentions are good (which they're not); all the panic shows he's got the mood swings of a moose in heat.

Does anyone else think this whole thing is about getting Palin out of the VP debate? And McCain will then propose they redo the debate that night, and perhaps show up instead of Palin....

Note the locations of the papers Al quoted.

Roanoke is at the southern end of the Shenandoah Valley, and Bristol is further down I-81 in the southwest corner of the state.  These are areas that should be good for McCain.  If the people there feel the same as the editorial writers, McCain is in trouble in VA.

A post on Kos includes 2 Jon Stewart videos on this past week's events. Enjoy!

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/26/64845/2967/182/611037

McCain will be going to the debate. After grandstanding about suspending his campaign and not going to the debate until a deal was reached, he is now going without a deal taking place. This man is utterly pathetic.

Lord, I want my hands on the UNUSED COURIC FOOTAGE WITH PALIN.

If THAT was THE BEST of Palin, I want the rest of it.

My AP US History class' homework is to watch the debate. I'm not sure whether I'm hoping McCain gets some stones and shows, and we can have an actual dialogue on the candidates, the way I imagine many independent families will be doing, or if I'd like to see him do what I think he will do in every major crisis following this one- run as fast as he can in the opposite direction, bumbling all the way.

Personally, I'll be watching no matter who is sitting in the chair across from Barack tonight.

It's made me a bit sad that New Hampshire has some strange rules regarding registration, which can take place up to ten days before the election, but most be done at your local city hall. The interesting bit is that anyone can show up at their polling place with proof they live at their address and register on the spot, on Election day.

Seeing as there is already a growing list of Election day drivers on the Manchester campaign office wall, and an unprecedented push to register voters in Manchester wards 5,6 and 9. These are the wards where many of the immigrants and refugees that have becoming a large presence in the city in the past few years are living.

Depending on how many we have doing get out the vote calls in the days before the election, this could change the situation in a way no pollster can anticipate.

So, keep your eye on New Hampshire!

Just when you think this campaign couldn't suck anymore, they surprise you.

amk

McCave.

Can't wait for the debate tonight!

OT - Update II:  Flag is a slight improvement over lime green jello background - but does anybody else get creeped out by that rictus smile!  Seriously, he's spending a fortune on makeup person, but has been coached into action by a funeral director!!

I'm with rikyrah - if Couric used the 'good' parts - really hard to imagine what's been cut!!

amk

You'll enjoy this take off on the Mac vs. PC ads:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6Nx7u3wgeA

WA field hands, please spead this around.  The Republicans have controlled the SOS office for 40 years now.  We need a change to protect our votes.  Seriously, do some research into how bad Sam Reed is...you'll be shocked.

Over 2000 Californians are hitting Nevada this weekend to knock on doors for Obama.  This will be my third weekend back to Nevada.  The state is turning blue.  Californians are DEAD SERIOUS about helping Obama win Nevada.

I am excited as I think there will be more undecideds to talk to since the economic crisis has unfolded.  And I am prepared with health care talking points (the McCain plan is a disaster).

on a side note:  My Rheumatoligist told me he is voting for Palin and McCain because she is pretty...then told me that McCain should not debate Obama because Obama would win the debate - this from a very intelligent doctor - sigh...sometimes the [non] logic I encounter is just astonishing -

Obama 50 McCain 45

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election

Just when you think gramps can't possibly find a way to another self inflicted wound, he astonishes and outdoes his past efforts. This has to be the most pitiful GOP windmill tilt at the White House ever.

And isn't it wonderful that a self confessed dunce on economic nuances has the foolishness to assert that he will suspend his usual self immolation and ride in to the rescue with no credibility?

I have a feeling that the run of strange gyrations, missteps, fumbles, bumbles and Hail Mary desperation is beginning to take its toll. A few of these ball drops, judiciously placed, might sink below the public radar screen but the addled old coot seems to pile em on, basically creating a consensus that his best contribution to public life will be to find one of his many rocking chairs in one of those many glitz dumps he can't remember and let the dementia finish its job.

Mr. Drama Queen stunt also took the spotlight off of Palin disaterous interviews, More revelations about Rick Davis and a new lobbyist story in the McCain camp - his aide Pfotenhauer,  TPM broke the story here

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/

Since the economic crisis, the race has been relatively stable, with Obama having an average lead of 3 to 4 points in the daily trackers.

Today, this has changed. With the daily trackers including two days of polling after McCain's decision to suspend his campaign, Obama jumped 1.75% and is now beating McCain by 5%. This is the largest average jump since all four trackers were up.

Click image to enlarge:

Today 's tracker results:

Gallup: Obama +3
Daily Kos/Research 2000: Obama +5
Diageo/The Hotline: Obama +7
Rasmussen: Obama +5

Did you guys see this?  I am 100% convinced that McCain knows nothing about economics.  I mean not even the basics.  He knows talking points exactly the same way as Bush does. That's it.  Watch his answer to Brian's question about where will the money come from. He has no clue about any aspect of this mess and so he reverts to talking points about out of control spending and growing the economy.  McFailin' for sure.  Oh and then for dessert we get the "...if Obama would only engage in ten town halls with me..."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032619/#26891027

Al or Anyone

Possibly VERY dumb but that won't stop me.  What do those percentages mean on the Tipping Point States?  The percentage chance that they will change from what they voted in 2004? If so, the percentages seem very low (example Virginia).  I look at Nate's website all the time and there are several graphs that I can't find any FAQ for.  (Maybe he needs a FAQ on WHERE TO FIND the FAQ!) :)  Help me out here anyone.

CNN reports conservative columnist Kathleen Parker tells Palin to bail. No kidding. Sounds like it's written by a Field Hand.  Really.  It's good.Here's the complete column from Parker:

http://townhall.com/columnists/KathleenParker/2008/09/26/the_palin_problem

Catherine - the percentage indicates how often that particular state was the one that decided the election - that put one candidate over 270 EVs - out of the 10,000 simulations that Nate runs.  In other words, how likely it is that the state in question is the one that "tips" the election.  In 2000, it was Florida and in 2004 it was Ohio (for example).

The FAQ is in a link in the upper left hand corner.

Tell your rheumatologist you want a second opinion, because you no longer trust his judgment.

I share your pain, Suzy; there are a lot of charts and figures on Nate's main page that baffle me, and I've also never found a FAQ that explains any of it.  However, 528 is more geared towards poll geeks, even if most commenters on the site are partisan chicken littles of one sort or another.

However, using Nate's blog to set the maps in context, I've decided that the Tipping Point States graph shows the likelihood that a state will be a deciding factor in the election, and that the graph labeled Return on Investment shows the likelihood that increased campaigning in that state will swing the vote to Obama.

If someone knows better what the maps mean, or better yet where Nate explains what all the pretty pictures on the page mean, please enlighten us!

a web ad in the Wall Street Journal that got posted one day early by mistake

Media stands to lose millions if debate is off. Media then "accidentally" forces McCain to show up?

It's pretty complicated, so I'll let Nate explain it.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/tipping-point-v20.html

Simeon and Long-time=lurker - thanks for your help.  I had previously read thru his LONG FAQ in the upper left corner but couldn't find the definition of tipping point percentage in it - so thanks! 

 Where in Nevada are you going? I agree with Allan you need a new doctor.

Rate the debate online-

http://www.freepress.net/debates

 It's true, Governor Kaine speaks spanish very well.

This is exactly what it is. This person understands it and explains WHY it isn't just as simplistic as Kos and others have written about. 

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/26/15480/1113/600/611644

"The problem really isn’t the defaults. In total, we’re talking about maybe $300B in defaults, and a certain percentage of that can be recovered once the property is seized and sold."[emphasis added]

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Dennis Ross was a MidEast expert for Reagan, HW Bush, and Bill Clinton. He met Obama a few years ago and was impressed with the style and ability to grasp issues. Never before has he endorsed a candidate. While long, this presentation in PA has deep reflection on why this election is so very important.

 I hope and pray he lives to see Barack Obama become POTUS. I don't pray much but I am praying for Teddy.

I'd never noticed the FAQs. Catherine, I see from Nate's explanation that I was wrong about the return-on-investment map:

What is the Return on Investment Index? The ratio of a state’s Tipping Point percentage to the number of eligible voters in each state, calibrated such that an average state has a Return on Investment Index of 1.0. This is intended to represent the marginal return from spending one additional dollar (or other type of campaign resource) in that state. For further discussion, see here.

I can't seem to view Jon Stewart or any other comedians at the Comedy Central site.  I've tried both Firefox & Explorer. The only ones I can consistently view are videos on YouTube and maybe Google. Does anyone know what my problem is.  When I click on the link below all I get is a initializing, loading, buffering endless loop.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/26/64845/2967/182/611037