VP Tote Board: Process of Elimination?

I'm guessing it will be Sebellius, Clark, or Kaine.  Since Kaine's people have been openly touting his chances, I seem to think he's less likely than the others.  Not to mention, with Warner already speaking, that may be a bit too much focus on Virginia.

I'm holding out for a surprise from Clark, but would be very pleased (and not at all surprised) if it is the popular governor from Kansas.

Al, there are some strike-outs on your list not on the original,just fyi.

Fholley - That should be fixed now (a problem with the html code after pasting in Newton-Small's list). Thanks for the vigilance!

I see over at Taegan's Political Wire, Mark Warner would not allow himself to be vetted for VP.  Is it still possible that he could be chosen?

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/08/13/warner_would_not_submit_to_...

based on your anticipated timing of the announcement (Sun. evening through Tues) can we expect you to offer your iron clad prediction(s) by say, Saturday late night?  I'm figuring you could narrow it down to a top 3 list, complete with your odds, expressed as a percentage, of becoming "The Choice".  This will, of course, be for amusement purposes only, no wagering.

Brain Schweitzer is also missing.  I think he would be great.

I won’t obsess over it though. So far the O team did not disappoint me. They are meticulous and know what they are doing (except this whole Georgia NATO flap). Now that it seems my candidate is definitely out, I will sit and watch.

... or who pushed for the invasion of Iraq. It would be damned foolish for Obama to unilaterally disarm one of the strongest differentiators between him and McCain -- it puts his "I've got better judgement" message at severe risk.

And that includes John "I voted against it before I voted for it" Kerry. No need to complicate a simple message, when there are much better candidates (even the dark horses Graham and Chaffee) to choose from.

Did I miss something?  I know he doesn't usually make MSM lists, but he's also not on your list of missing names, Al.  And he's got a wife.

...has been added to my extras list. Thanks for the reminder, Anonymous.

Because I'd be calling reporters, singing "I know something you don't know" into their voicemail, and hanging up.

Yes, they are doing an excellent job keeping things under wraps, so much so that I just read an AP article full of "concerned" quotes from people afraid that he'll pick......Hagel!

Which to me is just AP's way of saying "We don't have a clue but we need to write some stuff, so lets just throw something together".

I doubt very much that it will be Clark... he was on Rachel Maddow's radio program last night and not only the things that he said but his tone sounded "bitter".  He was a BIG Hillary supporter and the flak, taken out of context, about McCain's being a POW did not qualify him as a Presidential candidate could have had some impact as far as the Obama 'talking points'.  Clark also said that he will be out of the country during the weeks of both the Dem & Repub conventions.

I still don't think it will be a woman or... if it is the Obama camp may be overestimating what the country is ready for, plus, if the woman is not Hillary there could be a huge backlash from Hillary supporters.  I actually think that Hillary should be given the choice of staying in the Senate (she can be very effective there and very likely be the next Majority Leader) or taking a position of heading the Health and Human Services dept.   From that position, she could still work on Universal Health Care and NY is pretty safe for another Dem Senator.   Every dept  is going to need exceptionally strong people to straighten out what the Bush adm has done to try to prove that government doesn't work!

Just a game at this point, but it's fun: Sebelius is crossed off the list above, since she is speaking. But as of now we don't know WHEN she is speaking...so Wednesday night is a possibility, no? I believe she is the only speaker announced thus far who has exact slot has not been specified...

But, jeez - have you seen the hyperventilating about Evan Bayh? Matt Stoller @ Open Left is freaking out, based on some guy saying Bayh is a 50/50 shot. Stoller says, and I quote: "if Obama keeps shaving off his left flank, he's going to create enough space for a primary challenge in 2012".

I'm not making this up.

Why is it that Schweitzer is always left off of lists?  I think it will be him just because it seems like he's being kept in the background.

 After the email yesterday, I really was thinking, hmm, it could be Gore. That pick would blow all our minds and McShames.

Would Gore actually be Veep twice in his life? Doesn't seem so but, damn, that would be totally cool. Talk about firing up the base!

I really don't care who he picks, except Bayh or Clinton, please not Bayh and I see no way for it to be Clinton. Still hoping for Schweitzer or Sebellius, if it can't be Gore.

It is starting to get interesting, I am going to enjoy the show and, of course, reading all the juicy details from Al at the convention.

Maybe it is on VP night:-)

...it's going to be the noteworthily silent, conspicuously absent JIM WEBB for Obama's VP!

And when that does happen, I promise not to rub anyone's nose in it too much.... ; )

I'm from Rhode Island and I think Lincoln Chafee would make a fine vice president. He's an intelligent guy who really cares about the issues, and in a good way.

I must say, though, that it would be kind of funny seeing an Obama-Chafee ticket. With Obama, you have perhaps the least aristocratic Senator in quite a long time, and in Chafee you have one of the most aristocratic members of government (or ex-government) in the last 50 years.

(and, of all things, Baudrilliard?!)

I'm with the 900-pounder, as many here know.  Speaking slot MIA, post-Bill slot for VP, a discernible ratchet upwards in Clinton-ian and -ista distress at having their party taken away from them (think what this would do to all of their claims), and an ad pushing back on the celebrity meme.  Nothing like an Academy Award to put you in those waters.

What else?  "Securing America's Future"--already a climate-energy-war-economy theme from both Obama and Gore in various places this year.  Youth vote turnout, Tipper and Michelle campaigning together (oh, how ever will we unite the party?), and the fact that it's a huge testament to the quality and heft of Obama's candidacy that Gore would come out for this--wouldn't do it for anyone else, I believe.

This is of course all garnish to the substantive argument I made under Al's BB post.  To that I'd add, since the man is human (though I'm not actually ascribing these motives to him!): what better form of that dish-best-served cold vis-a-vis both Bushies and Clintons, than this?

But we'll see soon enough!

If he thinks Obama will be seriously challenged from the left, he's crazy. Obama is as left as this country gets. And with nearly 100% support from the black community, Obama would be able to defeat any left-ward candidate. 

And what little loyalty they have. They're already panicking and willing to throw Obama under the bus. Give the guy a fucking chance.. These Armchairmen really drive me crazy. Obama had an exquisite sense of timing in the primaries.. he waited and waited and waited and then made his move in mid-November just in time to peak for Iowa. He had laid all his preparations, but didn't want to crest too soon. Hopefully that's what will happen here.

Hmmnnn...never thought of Kerry! Interesting - and yes, Al, would be SUCH fun to watch McLame's face!!! Rictus grins, anyone???

I've with Christi on this - anyone (but Bayh, Clinton) is fine - and Sebelius or Schweitzer would have me on my feet screaming with joy!

http://www.truthfightsback.com/site/splash/

I'm rather new to reading so much about politics, and consequently, thinking much about political strategy, but:

I am originally from the Kansas City, MO area, which is a strange place politically (and otherwise).  Because KCMO and KCK (Kansas) are the same city, when living there, it sometimes seems as if you are living in both states at the same time.  Indeed, Kansas City news covers events in both states.  And Kansas City news is broadcast via television and paper (the KC star) at least as far as 45 minutes East of Kansas City proper (where I grew up, which is why I am wondering this).  Given this, is it possible or likely that a Sebelius being on the ticket might help Obama and company with a couple points in Missouri.  Perhaps Kansas is unlikely to go Dem, but Missouri could, with some serious some help in doing so.  Sebelius is regarded as a kind of phenomenon in the area, because Kansans like her so much, even some Republicans.  Okay, just wondering.

Ya wanna talk about someone who understands the importance of organizing?  We owe Howard Dean as much thanks as anyone for helping start this movement.  He's been a successful governor, run a popular national campaign, and is an organizer on steroids.  Dean moved the DNC operations to Chicago.  They seem to really enjoy each other's company, and Obama even hitched onto Dean's 50 State Strategy.

The excitement of an Obama/Dean ticket would be unstoppable.

Howard Dean would put more AAARRRRRGHHH! in Obama's arugula.

Where did these names like Sebelius, Kaine, etc come from anyway?  How did they become the leading names people talk about when few even knew of them a few months ago?

There's a lot to like in an Obama/Dean ticket.  How about adding Dean to the list?

Obama is the emotionally cool, contained candidate.  Balance comes from someone with some heat.   Not Bayh, though he's probably a good guy.  Caine also seems cool and contained.   Need someone with more spunk, more passion.   Schweitzer?  Webb?  Rendell?

Can anyone clue me in as to why Sherrod Brown has never made even the longest of long lists? I know he's a first-term Senator, but he was in the House forever. Sure looks like a nice reinforcer on paper.

Just on the basis of the links provided I do not see any evidence to take Sebelius off the list of possibilities. The links indicate that she will be speaking but that the time has not been set. That would be the case if she is going to be the VP candidate. She is my favorite.

Linc Chafee would never happen. Though Chafee has actually left the GOP, these crossparty VP choices never actually occur. The biggest problem with Chafee, however, is that he's actually too far to the left for Obama.

And just to be clear, the problem is not that "Obama is as left as this country gets." That's simply not true. Even Richard Nixon governed further to the left than any of the leading Democratic candidates who sought the nomination this year.

What is true is that Obama is pretty much as far to the left as he and the rest of the current leadership of the Democratic Party would be willing to consider for the national ticket. That's why nobody significantly to Obama's left has been considered. And that includes Lincoln Chafee.

That also covers Sherrod Brown, who has the additional disadvantages of spending his political career in DC and voting for the Military Commissions Act (which in my book makes him a war criminal).

This latest batch of tea leaves seems to me potentially to favor Sebelius (and her enticingly unspecified convention speaking slot), but I think the Obama campaign is playing their cards very close to their chest on this one.  It's really anyone's guess who'll emerge.

Michael in NYC

I gave up on Matt at Open Left after he had a front page post that included this line

"I'm ashamed of the person who I voted for to be the leader of my party."

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=7435

Thanks for the feedback on Open Left.  Matt Stoller really thinks who he is.  I have had it with that site.  I just deleted my Open Left bookmark.  They will get no more traffic from me.

I clicked on Open Left-thank God for Al's more sober analysis. I mean, Obama's team is probably doing the best it can do now considering Obama's race, his opponent, and the time of the year. They are bawling because Obama isn't 25 points ahead. Dont they realize how rare a 25 point lead is anytime?

There is a great deal of whining because Axelrod and Plouffe "aren't listening to them". Do they have anything constructive to advise them with? These guys have won elections and know what they are doing.

We can cross of Bloomberg and Chet Edwards, who are just media fantasies. Also Richardson, who is not willing to go through the full vetting process (for good reason). And Clark, who is not being vetted and will be out of the country during the convention.

Reed took himself out of contention.

Podesta? Yeah right. Two skinny guys with "foreign" sounding names on the same ticket? Nope.

And I would be very surprised if a single, middle-aged woman with a short haircut is picked. So scratch Napolitano, too.

That leaves: Bayh, Kaine, Biden, Dodd, Sebelius…plus Al’s list of far outside shot people. In other words, the list stands pretty much as it’s stood for months.

The fundamentals of Kaine still make the most sense. On my scale of 1-10, with 5 traits measured and up to 2 points awarded for each trait…

BAYH: Stump skills (1 good interview, uninspiring speaker), Electoral Help (1, swing state), Experience (2, gov. and senator), Do No Harm (1, point deducted for Iraq position), Team Player (0, total prima donna)
Total: 5

KAINE: Stump skills (2, good interview and decent speaker), Electoral Help (2, Catholic and swing state), Experience (0, new governor), Do No Harm (2, nothing that’s public anyway), Team Player (2, friends with BHO, used to playing #2)
Total: 8

BIDEN: Stump Skills (1, decent interview, bad speaker), Electoral Help (1, Catholic), Experience (1, senator), Do No Harm (1, gaffe-prone), Team Player (0, used to being own boss in senate, didn’t endorse early)
Total: 4

DODD: Stump Skills (1, good interview, uninspiring speaker), Electoral Help (1, Catholic), Experience (1, senator), Do No Harm (0, divorced, mortgage issues), Team Player (1, used to being own boss in senate, but endorsed early)
Total: 4

SEBELIUS: Stump Skills (1, being generous), Electoral Help (2, Catholic, female), Do No Harm (2, nothing we know of), Experience (1, governor), Team Player (1, endorsed early)
Total: 7

It could be any one of those five.  Fundamentals point to Kaine, with Sebelius as closest runner up.

Both Casey & Strickland are speaking on Hillary night.  Aren't both those guys anti-abortion?

Personally I find the idea of Kerry returning to see Bush out quite delish. Then again, Gore would be doubly so for the same reason.

One more name to consider. He's way off the radar, but would be a nice fit: Sen. Carl Levin (MI). He's a fellow midwesterner, would help shore up Michigan, has been vocally against the Iraq War (and a strong and informed critic of the Bush administration), and has years of experience in foreign affairs. He should be acceptable to both the netroots and the Washington media, and would drive a nice media narrative (e.g., provides the ticket with some gravitas, the media could revisit his criticism of the Bush administration, etc.). It's probably wishful thinking, but he'd be great! Get the word out!

Al has done an excellent job of smoothing my worried-ruffled Chicken Little feathers in the past, but once I read this

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/16451

I couldn't keep the words "the sky will be falling" from coming out of my mouth.

Al, are you there?  Have you seen this?  Your thoughts, please?  I need someone to talk me down from the roof!

Has been added as an update above, and is quite revealing!

that my stomach dropped when I saw Schweitzer's name on that list...I've been hoping against hope that he'd be Veep for a few weeks now.

I really can't get excited about Tim Kaine, I'm sorry. I hope that it's somebody else.

 Kaine, Kerry not mentioned yet, and where is Gore in the line up? He will speak, no?

Guest blogger? Can we have a hint? Pretty please, a little sugar on top!

I don't get this and maybe someone can explain it to me:

Why are people being crossed off the VP-list just because they are scheduled to speak at the convention?

It's like there's a law against taking a person off the schedule and letting him/her speak in the "vp-speaker-slot" instead!

So anyone scheduled to speak could still become VP !

Jed Report joining the Field Hands for the denver romp?

@ Slaney -

I disagree with your assessment of Kaine as having no experience. Certainly, he is a new governor and new to the national stage, but he was a member of Richmond (the capitol of Virginia)'s City Council from 1994-1998, mayor of Richmond from 1998-2000, and Lieutenant Governor of VA from 2002-2006. Not to mention his years of being a civil rights attorney, representing those who were denied housing unfairly. I think it's a mistake to characterize experience only in terms of executive experience, if that's the case, no senator has any! I think experience comes from the collective body of all the various things that one has been involved in, and while the media may like to charactize experience one way, doesn't make it the only valid metric.

At least not unless the VP would speak twice. Crap! I now think Kaine is the best bet.

Well, at least I can blunt my disappointment with the knowledge that the PUMA's are freaking out that Hillary is not being given an entire DAY to herself for tribute.

Ok, maybe I'm overly attached to the idea of Schweitzer as VP, but don't you think the Obama camp knows everyone is going to notice Kaine's absence from this list and draw the same conclusions you did? That is, would they tip their hand this way?  Also, people seem to be paired up, and if there were a sudden last-minute change -- and one of the partners on these topics went away -- it wouldn't really upset the schedule much.

Ah well, as long as it isn't Hillary or one of her dutiful minions, I shouldn't be too upset.

Feingold!

Ok, Folks, I am still predicting Schweizer--I just think that a Western, quasi-populist, social-libertarian, energy/ecology commonsense kind of a guy who is a Catholic, hails from a farming family kind-a-guy would match Obama very well.

More, the guy dosen't come with a lot of national baggage.

I think Kerry or Gore would stifle the 'change' meme--and a female VP might be too much of a risky bet, given the fact that O-man having an African father is likely keeping him five points behind where he would be at if he were totally white.

Sure, the vp is usually chosen from a state that can help the ticket with electoral votes (Montana has only three), but, if I am right, picking Schweizer could put Montana in play.  If Montana comes into play, look for Colorado and New Mexico to lean blue too.   Indeed, I think that it was strategy for O-man to already have dedicated a few visits to Montana (remember July 4th?).

Anyway, this is where by instincts are leaning.  But, hey, I thought 'for sure' that Gore would beat Bush handily. (He did win, but only barley and the Dems allowed it to be stolen)

OT: I'm I the only one that is glad that O-man is on vaction while Russia exerts its power over the US empire's stoodge government of Georgia--which now will not ever be allowed to develop a US military base on the home truf of the Bear?  McCain is swinging his dick--and I don't put it past the Bush administration to have ok'ed Saakashvili's barbaric attack on Ossetian civilians a week ago.   This give McLame the chance to appear quasi-presidential and 'tough' with his "We are All Georgian's Now" crap.   Who knows--but I wouldn't put it past the rightwing to paint Obama as soft on the commie Ruskies, that tired, lame, but still somewhat effective, meme.

I think that the pick is going to be somebody who hasn't gotten much of the limelight recently. Sam Nunn would be an excellent attack dog and would destroy McCain and any foreign policy lightweight the latter might choose as his own veep candidate. He was mentioned on the leaked "shortlist" awhile ago, and news concerning him has been eerily absent. I think he at least merits mention on the large list here.

My dream ticket of Obama/Warner effectively died today lol. I think that team would have been a definite winner(the best change ticket we could possibly have had) but since it isn't happening I think Warner is a great choice for the keynote speaker. So we are down to Biden, Bayh or Kaine. Also neither Kerry nor Gore is accounted for either. If Obama is somehow able to pull off getting Gore as VP - I would do some serious celebrating. That is another twosome I think that would be unstoppable and would create alot of excitement.