VP Tote Board: Process of Elimination?

I'm guessing it will be Sebellius, Clark, or Kaine.  Since Kaine's people have been openly touting his chances, I seem to think he's less likely than the others.  Not to mention, with Warner already speaking, that may be a bit too much focus on Virginia.

I'm holding out for a surprise from Clark, but would be very pleased (and not at all surprised) if it is the popular governor from Kansas.

Al, there are some strike-outs on your list not on the original,just fyi.

Fholley - That should be fixed now (a problem with the html code after pasting in Newton-Small's list). Thanks for the vigilance!

I see over at Taegan's Political Wire, Mark Warner would not allow himself to be vetted for VP.  Is it still possible that he could be chosen?

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/08/13/warner_would_not_submit_to_...

based on your anticipated timing of the announcement (Sun. evening through Tues) can we expect you to offer your iron clad prediction(s) by say, Saturday late night?  I'm figuring you could narrow it down to a top 3 list, complete with your odds, expressed as a percentage, of becoming "The Choice".  This will, of course, be for amusement purposes only, no wagering.

Brain Schweitzer is also missing.  I think he would be great.

I won’t obsess over it though. So far the O team did not disappoint me. They are meticulous and know what they are doing (except this whole Georgia NATO flap). Now that it seems my candidate is definitely out, I will sit and watch.

... or who pushed for the invasion of Iraq. It would be damned foolish for Obama to unilaterally disarm one of the strongest differentiators between him and McCain -- it puts his "I've got better judgement" message at severe risk.

 

And that includes John "I voted against it before I voted for it" Kerry. No need to complicate a simple message, when there are much better candidates (even the dark horses Graham and Chaffee) to choose from.

Did I miss something?  I know he doesn't usually make MSM lists, but he's also not on your list of missing names, Al.  And he's got a wife.

 

...has been added to my extras list. Thanks for the reminder, Anonymous.

Because I'd be calling reporters, singing "I know something you don't know" into their voicemail, and hanging up.

Yes, they are doing an excellent job keeping things under wraps, so much so that I just read an AP article full of "concerned" quotes from people afraid that he'll pick......Hagel!

Which to me is just AP's way of saying "We don't have a clue but we need to write some stuff, so lets just throw something together".

I doubt very much that it will be Clark... he was on Rachel Maddow's radio program last night and not only the things that he said but his tone sounded "bitter".  He was a BIG Hillary supporter and the flak, taken out of context, about McCain's being a POW did not qualify him as a Presidential candidate could have had some impact as far as the Obama 'talking points'.  Clark also said that he will be out of the country during the weeks of both the Dem & Repub conventions.

I still don't think it will be a woman or... if it is the Obama camp may be overestimating what the country is ready for, plus, if the woman is not Hillary there could be a huge backlash from Hillary supporters.  I actually think that Hillary should be given the choice of staying in the Senate (she can be very effective there and very likely be the next Majority Leader) or taking a position of heading the Health and Human Services dept.   From that position, she could still work on Universal Health Care and NY is pretty safe for another Dem Senator.   Every dept  is going to need exceptionally strong people to straighten out what the Bush adm has done to try to prove that government doesn't work!

Just a game at this point, but it's fun: Sebelius is crossed off the list above, since she is speaking. But as of now we don't know WHEN she is speaking...so Wednesday night is a possibility, no? I believe she is the only speaker announced thus far who has exact slot has not been specified...

But, jeez - have you seen the hyperventilating about Evan Bayh? Matt Stoller @ Open Left is freaking out, based on some guy saying Bayh is a 50/50 shot. Stoller says, and I quote: "if Obama keeps shaving off his left flank, he's going to create enough space for a primary challenge in 2012".

I'm not making this up.

Why is it that Schweitzer is always left off of lists?  I think it will be him just because it seems like he's being kept in the background.

 After the email yesterday, I really was thinking, hmm, it could be Gore. That pick would blow all our minds and McShames.

Would Gore actually be Veep twice in his life? Doesn't seem so but, damn, that would be totally cool. Talk about firing up the base!

I really don't care who he picks, except Bayh or Clinton, please not Bayh and I see no way for it to be Clinton. Still hoping for Schweitzer or Sebellius, if it can't be Gore.

It is starting to get interesting, I am going to enjoy the show and, of course, reading all the juicy details from Al at the convention.

Maybe it is on VP night:-)

...it's going to be the noteworthily silent, conspicuously absent JIM WEBB for Obama's VP!

And when that does happen, I promise not to rub anyone's nose in it too much.... ; )

Christie, I am totally with you! That email yesterday got me hoping again, and if not Sebelius would be fantastic. Can't say I know Schwetzer, but from what I have heard here he seems like a great bet too. /best wishes from a European

I'm from Rhode Island and I think Lincoln Chafee would make a fine vice president. He's an intelligent guy who really cares about the issues, and in a good way.

I must say, though, that it would be kind of funny seeing an Obama-Chafee ticket. With Obama, you have perhaps the least aristocratic Senator in quite a long time, and in Chafee you have one of the most aristocratic members of government (or ex-government) in the last 50 years.

(and, of all things, Baudrilliard?!)

I'm with the 900-pounder, as many here know.  Speaking slot MIA, post-Bill slot for VP, a discernible ratchet upwards in Clinton-ian and -ista distress at having their party taken away from them (think what this would do to all of their claims), and an ad pushing back on the celebrity meme.  Nothing like an Academy Award to put you in those waters.

What else?  "Securing America's Future"--already a climate-energy-war-economy theme from both Obama and Gore in various places this year.  Youth vote turnout, Tipper and Michelle campaigning together (oh, how ever will we unite the party?), and the fact that it's a huge testament to the quality and heft of Obama's candidacy that Gore would come out for this--wouldn't do it for anyone else, I believe.

This is of course all garnish to the substantive argument I made under Al's BB post.  To that I'd add, since the man is human (though I'm not actually ascribing these motives to him!): what better form of that dish-best-served cold vis-a-vis both Bushies and Clintons, than this?

But we'll see soon enough!

If he thinks Obama will be seriously challenged from the left, he's crazy. Obama is as left as this country gets. And with nearly 100% support from the black community, Obama would be able to defeat any left-ward candidate. 

And what little loyalty they have. They're already panicking and willing to throw Obama under the bus. Give the guy a fucking chance.. These Armchairmen really drive me crazy. Obama had an exquisite sense of timing in the primaries.. he waited and waited and waited and then made his move in mid-November just in time to peak for Iowa. He had laid all his preparations, but didn't want to crest too soon. Hopefully that's what will happen here.

Hmmnnn...never thought of Kerry! Interesting - and yes, Al, would be SUCH fun to watch McLame's face!!! Rictus grins, anyone???

I've with Christi on this - anyone (but Bayh, Clinton) is fine - and Sebelius or Schweitzer would have me on my feet screaming with joy!

http://www.truthfightsback.com/site/splash/

Kerry taking action. Surrogates might have been reading Al's previous post! Loved Allan Brauer's response to HuffPo/Schummer article. Really do think every action makes a difference! Thanks to Kerry for stepping up to it.

I'm rather new to reading so much about politics, and consequently, thinking much about political strategy, but:

 

I am originally from the Kansas City, MO area, which is a strange place politically (and otherwise).  Because KCMO and KCK (Kansas) are the same city, when living there, it sometimes seems as if you are living in both states at the same time.  Indeed, Kansas City news covers events in both states.  And Kansas City news is broadcast via television and paper (the KC star) at least as far as 45 minutes East of Kansas City proper (where I grew up, which is why I am wondering this).  Given this, is it possible or likely that a Sebelius being on the ticket might help Obama and company with a couple points in Missouri.  Perhaps Kansas is unlikely to go Dem, but Missouri could, with some serious some help in doing so.  Sebelius is regarded as a kind of phenomenon in the area, because Kansans like her so much, even some Republicans.  Okay, just wondering.

Ya wanna talk about someone who understands the importance of organizing?  We owe Howard Dean as much thanks as anyone for helping start this movement.  He's been a successful governor, run a popular national campaign, and is an organizer on steroids.  Dean moved the DNC operations to Chicago.  They seem to really enjoy each other's company, and Obama even hitched onto Dean's 50 State Strategy.

The excitement of an Obama/Dean ticket would be unstoppable.

Howard Dean would put more AAARRRRRGHHH! in Obama's arugula.

Where did these names like Sebelius, Kaine, etc come from anyway?  How did they become the leading names people talk about when few even knew of them a few months ago?

There's a lot to like in an Obama/Dean ticket.  How about adding Dean to the list?

 

Obama is the emotionally cool, contained candidate.  Balance comes from someone with some heat.   Not Bayh, though he's probably a good guy.  Caine also seems cool and contained.   Need someone with more spunk, more passion.   Schweitzer?  Webb?  Rendell?

Can anyone clue me in as to why Sherrod Brown has never made even the longest of long lists? I know he's a first-term Senator, but he was in the House forever. Sure looks like a nice reinforcer on paper.

Just on the basis of the links provided I do not see any evidence to take Sebelius off the list of possibilities. The links indicate that she will be speaking but that the time has not been set. That would be the case if she is going to be the VP candidate. She is my favorite.

Linc Chafee would never happen. Though Chafee has actually left the GOP, these crossparty VP choices never actually occur. The biggest problem with Chafee, however, is that he's actually too far to the left for Obama.

And just to be clear, the problem is not that "Obama is as left as this country gets." That's simply not true. Even Richard Nixon governed further to the left than any of the leading Democratic candidates who sought the nomination this year.

What is true is that Obama is pretty much as far to the left as he and the rest of the current leadership of the Democratic Party would be willing to consider for the national ticket. That's why nobody significantly to Obama's left has been considered. And that includes Lincoln Chafee.

That also covers Sherrod Brown, who has the additional disadvantages of spending his political career in DC and voting for the Military Commissions Act (which in my book makes him a war criminal).

This latest batch of tea leaves seems to me potentially to favor Sebelius (and her enticingly unspecified convention speaking slot), but I think the Obama campaign is playing their cards very close to their chest on this one.  It's really anyone's guess who'll emerge.

Michael in NYC

I gave up on Matt at Open Left after he had a front page post that included this line

"I'm ashamed of the person who I voted for to be the leader of my party."

 

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=7435

 

 

Thanks for the feedback on Open Left.  Matt Stoller really thinks who he is.  I have had it with that site.  I just deleted my Open Left bookmark.  They will get no more traffic from me.

I clicked on Open Left-thank God for Al's more sober analysis. I mean, Obama's team is probably doing the best it can do now considering Obama's race, his opponent, and the time of the year. They are bawling because Obama isn't 25 points ahead. Dont they realize how rare a 25 point lead is anytime?

There is a great deal of whining because Axelrod and Plouffe "aren't listening to them". Do they have anything constructive to advise them with? These guys have won elections and know what they are doing.

 

We can cross of Bloomberg and Chet Edwards, who are just media fantasies. Also Richardson, who is not willing to go through the full vetting process (for good reason). And Clark, who is not being vetted and will be out of the country during the convention.

Reed took himself out of contention.

Podesta? Yeah right. Two skinny guys with "foreign" sounding names on the same ticket? Nope.

And I would be very surprised if a single, middle-aged woman with a short haircut is picked. So scratch Napolitano, too.

That leaves: Bayh, Kaine, Biden, Dodd, Sebelius…plus Al’s list of far outside shot people. In other words, the list stands pretty much as it’s stood for months.

The fundamentals of Kaine still make the most sense. On my scale of 1-10, with 5 traits measured and up to 2 points awarded for each trait…

 

BAYH: Stump skills (1 good interview, uninspiring speaker), Electoral Help (1, swing state), Experience (2, gov. and senator), Do No Harm (1, point deducted for Iraq position), Team Player (0, total prima donna)
Total: 5

KAINE: Stump skills (2, good interview and decent speaker), Electoral Help (2, Catholic and swing state), Experience (0, new governor), Do No Harm (2, nothing that’s public anyway), Team Player (2, friends with BHO, used to playing #2)
Total: 8

BIDEN: Stump Skills (1, decent interview, bad speaker), Electoral Help (1, Catholic), Experience (1, senator), Do No Harm (1, gaffe-prone), Team Player (0, used to being own boss in senate, didn’t endorse early)
Total: 4

DODD: Stump Skills (1, good interview, uninspiring speaker), Electoral Help (1, Catholic), Experience (1, senator), Do No Harm (0, divorced, mortgage issues), Team Player (1, used to being own boss in senate, but endorsed early)
Total: 4

SEBELIUS: Stump Skills (1, being generous), Electoral Help (2, Catholic, female), Do No Harm (2, nothing we know of), Experience (1, governor), Team Player (1, endorsed early)
Total: 7

It could be any one of those five.  Fundamentals point to Kaine, with Sebelius as closest runner up.

Both Casey & Strickland are speaking on Hillary night.  Aren't both those guys anti-abortion?

Personally I find the idea of Kerry returning to see Bush out quite delish. Then again, Gore would be doubly so for the same reason.

One more name to consider. He's way off the radar, but would be a nice fit: Sen. Carl Levin (MI). He's a fellow midwesterner, would help shore up Michigan, has been vocally against the Iraq War (and a strong and informed critic of the Bush administration), and has years of experience in foreign affairs. He should be acceptable to both the netroots and the Washington media, and would drive a nice media narrative (e.g., provides the ticket with some gravitas, the media could revisit his criticism of the Bush administration, etc.). It's probably wishful thinking, but he'd be great! Get the word out!

Al has done an excellent job of smoothing my worried-ruffled Chicken Little feathers in the past, but once I read this

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/16451

I couldn't keep the words "the sky will be falling" from coming out of my mouth.

Al, are you there?  Have you seen this?  Your thoughts, please?  I need someone to talk me down from the roof!

Has been added as an update above, and is quite revealing!

that my stomach dropped when I saw Schweitzer's name on that list...I've been hoping against hope that he'd be Veep for a few weeks now.

I really can't get excited about Tim Kaine, I'm sorry. I hope that it's somebody else.

 Kaine, Kerry not mentioned yet, and where is Gore in the line up? He will speak, no?

Guest blogger? Can we have a hint? Pretty please, a little sugar on top!

I don't get this and maybe someone can explain it to me:

Why are people being crossed off the VP-list just because they are scheduled to speak at the convention?

It's like there's a law against taking a person off the schedule and letting him/her speak in the "vp-speaker-slot" instead!

So anyone scheduled to speak could still become VP !

Jed Report joining the Field Hands for the denver romp?

@ Slaney -

I disagree with your assessment of Kaine as having no experience. Certainly, he is a new governor and new to the national stage, but he was a member of Richmond (the capitol of Virginia)'s City Council from 1994-1998, mayor of Richmond from 1998-2000, and Lieutenant Governor of VA from 2002-2006. Not to mention his years of being a civil rights attorney, representing those who were denied housing unfairly. I think it's a mistake to characterize experience only in terms of executive experience, if that's the case, no senator has any! I think experience comes from the collective body of all the various things that one has been involved in, and while the media may like to charactize experience one way, doesn't make it the only valid metric.

At least not unless the VP would speak twice. Crap! I now think Kaine is the best bet.

Well, at least I can blunt my disappointment with the knowledge that the PUMA's are freaking out that Hillary is not being given an entire DAY to herself for tribute.

 

Ok, maybe I'm overly attached to the idea of Schweitzer as VP, but don't you think the Obama camp knows everyone is going to notice Kaine's absence from this list and draw the same conclusions you did? That is, would they tip their hand this way?  Also, people seem to be paired up, and if there were a sudden last-minute change -- and one of the partners on these topics went away -- it wouldn't really upset the schedule much.

Ah well, as long as it isn't Hillary or one of her dutiful minions, I shouldn't be too upset.

Feingold!

Ok, Folks, I am still predicting Schweizer--I just think that a Western, quasi-populist, social-libertarian, energy/ecology commonsense kind of a guy who is a Catholic, hails from a farming family kind-a-guy would match Obama very well.

More, the guy dosen't come with a lot of national baggage.

I think Kerry or Gore would stifle the 'change' meme--and a female VP might be too much of a risky bet, given the fact that O-man having an African father is likely keeping him five points behind where he would be at if he were totally white.

Sure, the vp is usually chosen from a state that can help the ticket with electoral votes (Montana has only three), but, if I am right, picking Schweizer could put Montana in play.  If Montana comes into play, look for Colorado and New Mexico to lean blue too.   Indeed, I think that it was strategy for O-man to already have dedicated a few visits to Montana (remember July 4th?).

Anyway, this is where by instincts are leaning.  But, hey, I thought 'for sure' that Gore would beat Bush handily. (He did win, but only barley and the Dems allowed it to be stolen)

OT: I'm I the only one that is glad that O-man is on vaction while Russia exerts its power over the US empire's stoodge government of Georgia--which now will not ever be allowed to develop a US military base on the home truf of the Bear?  McCain is swinging his dick--and I don't put it past the Bush administration to have ok'ed Saakashvili's barbaric attack on Ossetian civilians a week ago.   This give McLame the chance to appear quasi-presidential and 'tough' with his "We are All Georgian's Now" crap.   Who knows--but I wouldn't put it past the rightwing to paint Obama as soft on the commie Ruskies, that tired, lame, but still somewhat effective, meme.

I think that the pick is going to be somebody who hasn't gotten much of the limelight recently. Sam Nunn would be an excellent attack dog and would destroy McCain and any foreign policy lightweight the latter might choose as his own veep candidate. He was mentioned on the leaked "shortlist" awhile ago, and news concerning him has been eerily absent. I think he at least merits mention on the large list here.

My dream ticket of Obama/Warner effectively died today lol. I think that team would have been a definite winner(the best change ticket we could possibly have had) but since it isn't happening I think Warner is a great choice for the keynote speaker. So we are down to Biden, Bayh or Kaine. Also neither Kerry nor Gore is accounted for either. If Obama is somehow able to pull off getting Gore as VP - I would do some serious celebrating. That is another twosome I think that would be unstoppable and would create alot of excitement.

Me too!

I know a lot of people here are really hoping for Gore, but it seems to me that would go against the "change" theme because a former senator, two-term VP, and presidential candidate is very much a Washington insider even if he has moved on since then.

But pretty much whoever Obama picks will be good with me!

Now back to reading tea leaves. The suspense is killing me! ;)

This comment by Marc Ambinder bears repeating:

Item: the Democratic National Convention Committee confirms that Gov. Kathleen Sebelius has been given a Tuesday night speaking slot. Evidence that she won't be chosen as vice president?

 

Not really. The convention schedulers and Obama's VP team are entirely separate and segregated.

So don't read anything into the speaking slots; they can be easily moved around once the VP choice has been made.

I think Obama hasn't made the decision yet; I reckon he'll do it over the weekend when he's back from vacation and announce it Monday or Tuesday (perhaps even Wednesday). I think it'll be Sebelius, but it could also be Schweitzer or someone totally unexpected.

It's not that I like him any better than many of the others on the short list, but look at this:

1.  He has an impressive resume

2.  Great foreign policy gravitas - in Obama's philosophy wheelhouse (he brought the North Koreans to the table)

3.  As the first Hispanic candidate on a major party ticket he echoes the theme of change

4.  Obama and Richardson clearly like each other

5.  It's tactically brilliant - I'll take 90%+ of the African American vote, 80%+ of the Hispanic vote and 40%+ of the white vote any day.

6.  He does no harm - either with the party or with Democratic Gov's seat in NM.

7.  He probably tips CO, NM, NV and FL into Obama's column, and puts AZ and TX into play - seriously.

8.  He's not on the speakers' list for the convention, and he's being conspicuously inconspicuous at the moment.

Breaking news from Fox's Bill Kristol--Colin Powell will endorse Obama and speak at the Dem Convention!

This is from Fox, mind you, and the info comes from 'sources' close to Powell (according to Kristol).

If this is true, it is big.  There are many older, moderate US folk that respect Powell a lot, despite the WMP pony show.

Moderate Republicans can be the game and electoral map changer in this cycle.

Patti Solís Doyle is in to work with him; he speaks some Spanish as well... They are investing more money into working with the Latino community than both parties invested in the previous elections.

Obama said that the we should not just expect Spanish speakers to learn English but it should be the other way around too. (this did not go well for the English only movement)

The idea of the US overcoming the monolingual mentality is fantastic!

Al, will you gay marry me?  Your analysis here is spot-on.  <3 <3

No way on Carl Levin. He was the chief architect behind the Michigan primary debacle and was a big Clinton supporter, and from recent comments I've read from him, he is only saying that he supports Obama but doesn't seem much interested in helping any (and I've received multiple emails from his office/campaign about his own Senate fundraising for re-election this year).

Also, he is a Senator through and through. I like the man and he fights hard for Michigan interests (too hard in the primary case), but he is just not executive material in my eyes (or probably his own). 

And personally, I'd much rather see him in the Senate where he is a strong force.

al, glad to see that you are raising your eyebrows over certain signs that gore might be VP.

i wish i could see the internal polling pertaining to VP choices -- if Gore significantly boosts Obama's numbers nationally, i can't see how he could possibly be passed over (assuming, of course, that he would be willing to put in the two + months of campaigning). i can't see how any of the other short listers would boost Obama's numbers nationally.

the environment and energy policy are shaping up to be the two big issues of the election -- what better way for Obama to own these issues than to pick Gore?

also, what better way to make the election a referendum on George Bush than to pick Gore?

finally, who better than Gore to follow Bill Clinton on Wednesday?

Nunnmania will take the Field by surprise! Just watch!

Already denied by the man himself: “I do not have time to waste on Bill Kristol’s musings. I am not going to the convention. I have made this clear.”

 

And the world keeps spinning as Bill Kristol continues to be 100% wrong 100% of the time. Apparently that's all it takes to get a high profile job with the MSM.

Although Powell did deny that he's going to the convention, it's interesting he didn't answer the question as to whether or not he's going to endorse Obama.

"For years, Penn and his wife, Nancy Jacobson, have been close advisers to Indiana Senator Evan Bayh. Jacobson put together Bayh’s finance team during his aborted presidential bid, and previously served as national finance chair for the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC). Penn was the DLC’s longtime pollster and worked for Bayh during his last Senate race. The couple has also been associated with Third Way, the centrist think tank Bayh helped organize in 2005 that many in Washington viewed as a vehicle for his presidential run (the DLC obviously belonging to Clinton)."

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200808u/mark-penn

 

Just for fun- I do not know why my brain came up with this thought but can you imagine?

Obama/Gore

McCain/Leiberman

:-0

Isn't it fairly easy to rearrange the speaking schedule? To say "And the veepster is....Kathleen Sebelius!!!! And her earlier speaking slot will be taken by Al Gore/Angelina Jolie/insert name." The veep committee has been impressively close-mouthed, so I'd almost expect them to have a feint going on here, along the lines of those earlier, very amusing, floats of random Republican names that sent the media scurrying off on "who IS Jones/random Agriculture lady?"

My bad on Powell.  His son is a stoodge for the Republicans and big business.

Powell was duplicitous in giving the nation bad intelligence on Iraq--and the man is wrong on deciding not to endorse Obama at the convention.

What can I say--I hit a link to a Faux News story by Kristol.  I know, I know--should have known better.

I am not retracting my prediction that it will be Schweizer as VP.  Kaine looks good, really good on many levels--I just have an aversion toward anyone that corporate media hired-hands are betting on as likely choice.

I note that Al has Bob Graham on the dark horse list. I have thought more than once about him as a great surprise candidate. He would be an excellent choice. He was right from the beginning on Iraq. He chaired the Intelligence cmte. He would carry some great cred and gravitas, and possibly the state of Florida. He would loyal and not angling for his own future presidency.

Steve Clemons reporting that Bayh is now more than 50-50:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-clemons/share-your-views-on-evan_b_1...

Buncha bloggers (incuding me) have signed a Facebook petition against it (sorry Al, I know we're not supposed to question Chicago). To me, Bayh's slightly better than Kaine in experience, but less so on liberal politics. And both of them are dull.

We need some excitement.

 

The anonymous post above was done by me. Sorry about that.

I predicted Biden on Demookie.com a while back.  I just watched Keith Olbermann.  I agree.  It's going to be Biden.  Mark my words.  Am I happy with it?  I love Joe Biden but he would not have been my first choice.

I really don't care who the VP is out of our picks.  I don't think the VP adds much to the Presidential election.  So, Biden would be fun.  He really would.

 

 

"Isn't it fairly easy to rearrange the speaking schedule? To say "And the veepster is....Kathleen Sebelius!!!! And her earlier speaking slot will be taken by Al Gore/Angelina Jolie/insert name.""

Substitute Scweitzer for Sebelius and I'll be thrilled (although I'm fine with her as a second choice.) You know, Obama and the Veepsters must know that people are playing elimination games with the speakers lists. Would they really tip their hand so obviously?

(On Countdown tonight, Olbermann seems to think it will be Biden. It can't be that simple. Please.)

of what I am working on for tomorrow's blog.

The MSM 3 are Biden (Keith's choice), Bayh and Kaine, in that order sort of. All are wrong choices.

The two most likely choices are Kathleen Sebelius and Brian Schweitzer, the Governors of Kansas and Montana respectively. Both have seismic potential.

The scenario under which Sebelius might get the nod is that it would be part of the rapprochement Clinton might go with. Hillary and Kathleen suddenly become the SAME THING and Hilary's supporters back off.

Schweitzer would be Obama's laugh at everyone, a manifestation of great confidence and the choice of someone who really does rank as a political original and potential leader beyond the others in the Barack VEEP stable.

These two candidates speak chance and excitement and none of the MSM three promise more but endless picking over of the boring question WHY.

I think the choice of one of these would force McCain to choose Lieberman and run on a Strangelove platform. All the neocon apocalypse you can imbibe. Talk about cool aid.

Schweitzer would also nail down what is already an obvious Western Strategy. All you need to do is count the Western states that Obama regards as among the battlegrounds where he is placing his most recent ad.

The states are AK, CO, FL, IA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NV, NH, NC, ND, OH, PA, VA, and WI.

Now if it came down to Schweitzer or Sebelius, what would the info just above tell you? NO KANSAS. Kansas is McCain's as of now.

Schweitzer is a THINKER who has put together the restoration economy for this whole country.

I would guess from observation that Schweitzer has increased popularity among the Obama loyalists as they have discovered him by listening to his videos.

as kos says, he/she doesn't cause all those cell phones/blackberries being smashed against the wall /floor/ teevee/ across the room or cause car accidents.

amk

I don't see Dick Gephardt's name up there. He would bring good blue collar support in the midwest and might help swing Missouri.

Man, that Obama is a great fundraiser among many other things!

 

I'm getting awfully sick of Kos' holier-than-thou pronouncements, especially when they border on petulant (e.g,. No donations to Obama! If Kaine is selected, my minions will destroy their phones!). And I say this as a semi-disappointed fan of his site (for all its inherent weaknesses). 

Remind me again, Fieldhands, why I or you or any of us should give a crap what Kos has to say about the VP pick per se? If the Dem party followed that dude in lockstep we'd have a lying adulterer as our nominee -- shades of TalkLeft, no?

 

Grow up and get over yourself, Kos. And thanks, Al, for your analysis. Even when I disagree with you, you give me good reasons for understanding where you're coming from. I appreciate your not talking down to me from on-high. Keep it up and have fun in Denver.

I would like to go back to the possibility of Chaffee.  Not only is he a REALLY good guy but, in 2004, he wrote in Geo. HW Bush, instead of voting for Geo W Bush!  And he bragged about it.

Also, I don't think that Barack will select anyone who is a member of the DLC... they tried to add him automatically to their members list and he made them remove his name.  So, it will not be a member of the DLC.

Hagel - no way.  I can see him as Sec of Defense though.  Obviously his heart is with our soldiers.  He is probably taking a lot of flak for accompanying Barack on the congressional part of his trip but the rank and file are probably still loyal to him.  If his potential appointment was announced by the end of Sept, Barack would probably get a lot more Republican votes!

It won't be: Richardson, Clinton, Nunn, Bayh, Levin, Graham, Clark, Podesta, Sebelius, McCaskell, Dodd, Hagel, Gore, Kerry, Casey, Rendell, Napolitano

It might be: Kaine, Biden, Reed, Schweitzer

Dark horse: Webb. Or someone none of us ever thought of.

I just keep thinking Webb.

Barack has said all along that he feels foreign policy is his strong suit and that he would not choose a VP based on foreign policy.  Choosing Biden would make it look like he had to have "dad" along for the heavy lifting on foreign policy, so I don't think it's gonna happen.

Even with all the comments about the theme for the VP night... as far as I'm concerned, the Kathleen Sebelius or anyone who is good on energy or the economy or getting things done in a non-partisan way would fit in with the theme of securing our future.  To think that securing our future is about the military or our foreign is to fall back into the traditional way of thinking.

Barack also said just this week that the VP choice would not be a surprise, so I think all the dark horse candidates are out.

I also believe they will put out the VP announcement on an off-cycle for the MSM - I think they will want the blogs & regular people to have time to react, even do some research on the person before the MSM tries to jump in and control the message about the VP.

One last thing... I wonder if the recent bad behavior from Hillary and Bill is because they think/know the VP will be a woman who is not Hillary, which would mean Kathleen Sebelius.  I know, we're all speculating without any access to good information from the VP team, but it's still fun to think about!

@Kris

I agree with you.  Just trying to make the case as conservatively as possible.

Sure, maybe the guy's spent most of his career fixing potholes and running community health clinic days.  But this country needs some goddamn potholes fixed and health clinics run!

That's what the "NATIONAL SECURITY EXPERIENCE" uber-alles robots don't understand.

Would Warner's keynote and a Kaine VP be too much emphasis on Virginia???  Also, how much might Obama value someone to shore up a perceived gap in ability to keep America safe from terrorism?

I still like Schweitzer-- Western governor paired himself with a Republican lt. governor-- fluent in arabic-- and best of all-- fluent in the details of energy policy and someone who's shown on the ground that clean energy and green policy can be implemented by the government.  It is an intellectual headwound to realize that offshore drilling seems to be sweeping across this election as a big issue for the fall-- especially in light of tsunami racing towards this country in terms of massive amounts of outstanding loans coming due this fall in tightening credit market and our friends and family still in danger in Iraq.  Looking forward to seeing the show when our guy comes back from vacation.

He runs a damn tight ship that springs no leaks.  I have to admit that I've enjoyed watching Al, whose analysis has been prescient throughout this election, figuratively pull out his hair trying to figure out who the VP is.  No one has a clue.

out of that particular kos post on veeps ?  I found it funny, especially some of the posts there.

amk

I know he's gained weight lately, but the "900 pound gorilla" instead of the regular "800 pound"??  tee-hee!  Or maybe that's his increased "weight" around the world in influence and recognition...

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Of course, if Obama were to pick someone already on the schedule, and announce them any time before the convention starts, the schedule could always be re-worked, couldn't it?

 

I've been to the gym and back!  Where is everybody?!?!?

Re: Gore...anybody remember how professorial he is/speaks?  The O-man is already fighting that battle!

OTOH: Gore will be such a "hammer" to the Repugs that he might not have to say much!

Al:  thanks SO much for this post and the previous one!  Priceless!

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

I believe kos' choice was Dodd then Obama, he's never been fond of Edwards, though Edwards supporters dominated that site for the majority of 2007.

According to Lynn Sweet, who's got good sources, Joe Biden is moving up the VP pecking order. Am I the only one underwhelmed?

http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2008/08/obama_camp_said_to_be_leaning.ht...

I think one of the potential downsides to Gore is one of Clinton's largest downsides: he would motivate the Republican base against him.

Now the baggage there isn't nearly as bad as Clinton, but it's still a big consideration. 

Ambinder says this: "The convention schedulers and Obama's VP team are entirely separate and segregated."

So, he is saying just cause they are scheduled doesn't really rule them out.

 

I still want Schweitzer!

One reason I could see a Biden pick (or one of the other older folks, like Nunn) is it sets up people like Warner, Sebelius, Schweitzer for a 2016 run.  But I would hope that one of these three would just take the No.2 spot now.

KD

All of this speculation is fun but I don't have much to add. Off the top of my head, I think Howard Dean would be a great choice. I 'm glad Al added him to the post but I'm wondering why there isn't more chatter about him.  Other than that, I don't want to take a position -- I am just curious to see who Obama picks. I like how he thinks and we can certainly discuss the why's and the logic later.

Other than that, I am excited and a little nervous about my neighborhood organizing event tonight. This thing will be won on the ground not the blogosphere. The netroots certainly was important in getting us here, but I think we all need to get our feet on the ground. With that in mind, I am going to *try* to make sure I spend as much time "in the field" as reading "the field" (and 538, Jed, Andrew Sullivan, ...) each week, from here on out. I know a lot of you fieldhands certainly already do that but I haven't been.

But my iphone will be in my pocket, so I can get that text and email just as soon as everyone else!

This is a very effective ad; it needs to go viral:

Combined with this fantastic footage:

it should be enough to lose McCain the election (can you believe he said "fiscal discipline"? Ha!).

He's incredible. The more video I watch, the more convinced I am that Schweitzer is the man for the job. There are less "risky" choices, but none more interesting, none more appealing as a future President from our Party, none better equipped to help realign the West in our favor, and none (except Webb) equally effective in serving as a magnet for "low information" white male voters. 

Lynn Sweet got alot of attention for some supposed scoop a few weeks ago, and she turned out to be fabulously wrong.  Beginning to wonder what her motivations are, so I wouldn't put too much stock in any of her "reporting."

Regarding Howard Dean: I still can't figure out how some of these names (Sebelius, Kaine, etc) appear out of nowhere, and then people can't seem to consider anyone else.  It's like there's a pre-approved list, and any suggestion outside of that list is treated as silly and not worth considering, regardless of how much evidence is presented to show that someone like Dean would be a fantastic choice.

There's so much behind-the-scenes info that we'll never know which Obama will weigh in making his decision, but the pack mentality, even within the Liberal blogs, has been discouraging for some of us who have been advocating VP candidates who are not "pre-approved."  (thanks to Al for adding Dean!)

This election will be a turning point in America's history, and that's largely because of the organizing that Al is always talking about.  We all owe a huge thanks to Howard Dean for kick-starting these new organizing models with his '04 Presidential campaign and the 50 State Strategy.  Why there isn't a huge groundswell movement in Liberal blogs to make him VP baffles me.  Instead DLCers like Sebelius and Kaine, who were recently no-names and have fairly small lists of accomplishments compared to Dean, are mentioned constantly.

In terms of winning elections I think VP picks are overrated and Obama is probably going to win no matter who he picks, but in terms of governing it's extremely important since the VP is one heartbeat away from being the Prez.  There is no name on that list that comes close to the leadership, and willingness to stand for all the things Liberals (most of us at least) value than Howard Dean.

A judge in Detroit has just removed the travel restrictions against Kwame Kilpatrick and said he could go to Denver!  The Judge almost encouraged him to go!

I know that Kwame is still technically a SuperDelegate, but Barack does NOT need Kwame anywhere near him!  He doesn't need his vote, either!

It's said that Barack already contacted the Governor and told her to get this mess taken care of ASAP (OK, that's just a very strong rumor...); she will be holding a hearing on Sept 3rd to decide whether or not to kick him out of office...Sept 3rd isn't soon enough!

Detroit is a Democratic stronghold surrounded by Republicans!  The O-man doesn't need this distraction!

Plus, most of us here in Detroit don't want him as our Mayor anymore, and especially don't want him representing Detroit!

The prosecutor is going to file an immediate appeal this afternoon...Kwame...STAY HOME!

I'll keep everyone posted...

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

 

Sorry for the too-harshly worded rant above. I typically respect Kos and what he's done (and is doing). Back (slightly?) OT: I'd be very happy with Schweitzer, Sebelius, Kaine and Biden among others. I'm no armchairman so I'm going to defer to the judgment of the O Team on the pick, but I can definitely see the downsides to (a) picking a GOPer [not gonna happen] or (b) picking a Senate careerist [I know, I know, this complicates Biden]. I hope and trust the pick will mollify the base AND intrigue independents. 

Also: hello Pamela from a fellow Detroiter!

Obama/Biden sounds too much like Osama bin Laden.  You're not going to get rural voters to shout their praises that way.

Al and all --

This is a bit off topic though related to Clinton as a speaker but I'd be interested in others' thoughts. I'm not chicken-littling, nor am I worried about any kind of coup at the convention. I am curious though about the psychology behind having Clinton's name in the roll call as part of the nomination in Denver. To my mind a roll call would be more embarrassing for her if, as is inevitable, she loses delegates she originally claimed. Instead of a positive "catharsis", I would imagine this would only bring back bad feelings by those who feel she was ill-treated and might highlight instead of downplay any strongly felt divisions. I trust the instinct for theater the Obama campaign has shown throughout the election season and their careful handling of issues around bringing the party together so I'd be interested in how this might be done and presented to be a positive rather than negative overall.

 

Aren't pledged delegates required to vote for their pledge in the first round of voting, then they are released in subsequent rounds?  So, Clinton's delegates couldn't switch to Obama, because Obama will have the lock in the first round.  Or are pledged delegates just on an honor thing or something?

The Barack Obama for President campaign has confirmed to Eyewitness News that Indiana Senator Evan Bayh has been offered a speaking slot on Wednesday night at the Democratic Convention in Denver.

Bayh will be speaking on Wednesday night, the same night as the vice presidential nominee. The Indiana senator's time slot will be earlier in the evening.

Sen. Joe Biden (D-Delaware) and Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia, two other potential vice presidential possibilities, have also been asked to speak at the convention. At this point, it's not known if Bayh's appearance has any bearing on any possible nomination as vice presidential candidate.

Bayh will be speaking about national security issues.

http://www.wthr.com/Global/story.asp?S=8841554&nav=menu188_2

Does this mean it won't be any of them?

In some answer to my question above I see that the ever-excellent Jed has a very interesting take on the "why" of the nomination.

"It will increase attention on the convention and makes Barack Obama seem both magnanimous and confident. Hillary knows that she cannot win the nomination, and I trust that Obama will not agree to anything that will allow her to diminish him.

Obviously, in an ideal world, things wouldn't have come to this. But it's a logical way of dealing the reality of the negative fallout from Hillary Clinton's bad decision to continue her campaign long after she lost any realistic chance of winning.

For better or for worse (mostly the latter), she gained some political clout during that time, and if this is the way that she wants to cash in her chips, that's fine with me."

 

He ends with another good point:

"But that all being said, we're at where we're at. It's a political campaign, and the goal is to win. And giving Hillary Clinton her moment is a smart thing to do.

But let's not forget what kind of campaign she ultimately ran."

http://www.jedreport.com/2008/08/the-nomination.html

 

In some answer to my question above I see that the ever-excellent Jed has a very interesting take on the "why" of the nomination.

"It will increase attention on the convention and makes Barack Obama seem both magnanimous and confident. Hillary knows that she cannot win the nomination, and I trust that Obama will not agree to anything that will allow her to diminish him.

Obviously, in an ideal world, things wouldn't have come to this. But it's a logical way of dealing the reality of the negative fallout from Hillary Clinton's bad decision to continue her campaign long after she lost any realistic chance of winning.

For better or for worse (mostly the latter), she gained some political clout during that time, and if this is the way that she wants to cash in her chips, that's fine with me."

 

He ends with another good point:

"But that all being said, we're at where we're at. It's a political campaign, and the goal is to win. And giving Hillary Clinton her moment is a smart thing to do.

But let's not forget what kind of campaign she ultimately ran."

http://www.jedreport.com/2008/08/the-nomination.html

 

In some answer to my question above I see that the ever-excellent Jed has a very interesting take on the "why" of the nomination.

"It will increase attention on the convention and makes Barack Obama seem both magnanimous and confident. Hillary knows that she cannot win the nomination, and I trust that Obama will not agree to anything that will allow her to diminish him.

Obviously, in an ideal world, things wouldn't have come to this. But it's a logical way of dealing the reality of the negative fallout from Hillary Clinton's bad decision to continue her campaign long after she lost any realistic chance of winning.

For better or for worse (mostly the latter), she gained some political clout during that time, and if this is the way that she wants to cash in her chips, that's fine with me."

 

He ends with another good point:

"But that all being said, we're at where we're at. It's a political campaign, and the goal is to win. And giving Hillary Clinton her moment is a smart thing to do.

But let's not forget what kind of campaign she ultimately ran."

http://www.jedreport.com/2008/08/the-nomination.html

 

In some answer to my question above I see that the ever-excellent Jed has a very interesting take on the "why" of the nomination.

"It will increase attention on the convention and makes Barack Obama seem both magnanimous and confident. Hillary knows that she cannot win the nomination, and I trust that Obama will not agree to anything that will allow her to diminish him.

Obviously, in an ideal world, things wouldn't have come to this. But it's a logical way of dealing the reality of the negative fallout from Hillary Clinton's bad decision to continue her campaign long after she lost any realistic chance of winning.

For better or for worse (mostly the latter), she gained some political clout during that time, and if this is the way that she wants to cash in her chips, that's fine with me."

 

He ends with another good point:

"But that all being said, we're at where we're at. It's a political campaign, and the goal is to win. And giving Hillary Clinton her moment is a smart thing to do.

But let's not forget what kind of campaign she ultimately ran."

http://www.jedreport.com/2008/08/the-nomination.html

 

Hi Al,

Sorry! there's a glitch with the network where I'm writing from and now there are several duplicate posts by me (title: Jed on Clinton nomination) - could you please delete them?

 

A few thoughts about Obama's VP choice:

1. Anything who claims to know something about Obama's thinking or says they've heard that there's a "better than 50 percent chance" that so-and-so will be picked is deluding themselves.

The notion that "the VP pick will not be a surprise" seems to have no other source than an offhand remark by Chuck Todd. Since when does Todd belong to Obama's inner circle? Obama is sharing his thoughts with less than a handful of close confidants and as we have found out over the past few months and will continue to observe in the future, that circle is as good as leak-proof (no drama, remember?). So all talk about his pick, until the moment that the pick is truly revealed, is pure speculation (which is also how I would characterize the rest of this post).

2. I've said this before but it bears repeating: I can't imagine Obama picking anyone who voted for authorization of the war in Iraq, as all of those people have failed the commander-in-chief test. I think the most important criterion Obama is looking for in a VP is someone who is ready to be president, and those people have proven themselves unfit.

So say goodbye to Bayh, Biden, Clinton, Daschle, Dodd, Edwards, Hagel and Kerry.

(An additional problem with Biden, perhaps the least unlikely from the above list, is that it would compound one of Obama's vulnerabilities, albeit undeserved: perceived arrogance. And Bayh was probably never in serious consideration given his neocon tendencies.)

3. Obama considers national security as one of his strengths (and rightly so, as he was more prescient on Iraq in 2002 than almost all "experienced" Beltway politicians), so the VP will not necessarily have to be "proven" in that area.

4. A pick from outside the Beltway seems very likely, given the anti-Washington mood now prevailing among the electorate. I still think it'll be a common-sense straight-talking governor like Sebelius, Schweitzer or Richardson. It'll be someone who can explain complex stuff in very simple wording, appealing to the working class (Schweitzer definitely fits that bill). The pick will be someone who has proven apt at governing and who is very popular; that's why I think Kaine won't be the pick. Gore would be amazing (combining Washington experience with an outsider mentality) but is unwilling to take the same job once again.

5. Or it could be somebody totally outlandish that few have thought of.

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/potential-vp-candidates-fill-wednesday-...

Richardson will be speaking on Wednesday night as well as Bayh and Biden.  

 

but it seems that Schweitzer's reputation as a "loose cannon" (pun intended) may be justified:

 

http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2008/08/12/bnews/br12.txt

 

This doesn't sound like the ringing endorsement of a future VP, but as I said, it may be taken out of context.

James Jones was the surprise name on the original list from Obama yet he never gets mentioned.  Jones is friends with McCain so he would be hard to get but he would be a great pick.  Most people haven't heard of him but he has been advising Obama and Obama is said to think the world of him.

Maybe Webb is back in the running...............????

I know this sounds crazy, but I had a dream the other night that the Veep is going to be Al Gore. I woke up feeling a sense of peace and calm that I haven't had in a long time. Obama is in trouble, and he needs a heavy lifter, and an attack dog.

Al Gore is not the same person that he was in 2000. Yes, he was professorial in An Inconvenient Truth, but in person he's gotten to be personable and his sense of humor has emerged.

Why would a former VP and presidential candidate settle for VP?

Obama needs a co-President. Like Cheney, Gore will assume this role. And Gore knows that if we have 8 more years of a Republican administration, that we might as well kiss the planet good-bye. He can't save it on his own.

An Obama/Gore ticket would win. People know that the Presidency was stolen from Gore. They know that had he become President, we'd be a lot better off, and not in Iraq. And Obama could make it clear that they would be governing together. The Vice-Presidency has been evolving in that direction- the challenges facing this country are too great for any one man to handle alone.

Gore fills out the experience/national security credentials that Obama needs. Obama can say what he likes about his strength in national secrity/foreign policy issues, and I feel the same way, but the public doesn't trust him yet.

Obama is no Bill Clinton, and Gore knows this. I think Obama is humble enough to realize that he is going to need a lot of help- both in getting elected (the Republican smear machine hasn't even begun to fight), and in governing.

Well, I'm probably completely crazy, but if it's not Gore, I think it will be Biden, and I think he'll be great. He's personable, an attack dog who is not obnoxious, he's Catholic, and he appeals to the working class. He's down-to-earth, and he doesn't take any crap.  For all that people say he talks too much, I haven't really noticed that lately, nor any real gaffes. He'd be a great running mate for Obama.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama/ Bayh, Bye is even worse!