VP Watch: All Eyes on the Outside Track

You certainly have been ahead of the curve, Al. You've been talking about kaine and sebelius for months and months. And now it is the CW.

Having watched the Obama campaign operate, I wonder if this isnt a head fake, as you suggest. It would take the excitement out of Kaine's pick if everyone knows it in advance. Sebelius would have the frisson of daring because Hillary's acolytes have said no. Schweizer would be out of the blue, that would be exciting.

Schweizer would probably help him the most electorally, but I think Obama really wants someone he feels comfortable working with and that he trusts. Which is wise.

I've been on the Schweitzer VP train for a long time and he never even gets mentioned by anyone in the MSM.  I guess I am holding out hope that Obama is doing a major headfake to the national press and will pick Schweitzer to increase the element of surprise and to get everyone talking.  I think the two would go well together, as Nate at 538, Al and others have written about much better than I could.

Kaine, Sebelius and Schweitzer all seem like good picks. Glad to see that most of the Hillary speculation has faded. Really hope Obama doesn't make the "safe" conventional bet.

As for McCain, I couldn't agree more that Huckabee would be the smart choice. He would give the fundies something to be excited about and Huck has some crossover appeal. Would strengthen McCain with the Independents. It would piss off Rove's people and the Wall Street thugs; both good choices to piss off right about now. Romney impresses no one; not even those who claim to support him. Given that McCain is playing from Rove's strategy book, I wonder if he would do yet another about face and bite the hand that's feeding him.

...is the best choice for Obama.  Call Dr. Dean a life insurance policy if you will for Obama.

The choice of Kaine would delight all tactical political thinkers (who proliferate in a campaign at the level just below the presidential candidate), but will completely forsake the opportunity to turn the vice presidential choice into a major strategic gain.  Yes, he speaks Spanish, is Catholic, and is governor of a swing state.  But he is also a decidedly untelegenic speaker, has been unable to get significant legislation out of his Republican legislature (in start contrast to Kathleen Sebelius, the other governor under consideration by Obama), and is a conventional Walter Mondale/Michael Dukakis liberal.  He'd bring no zing to the ticket. 

I've lived in Virginia for 23 years, and Tim Kaine has accomplished less and made less of a memorable impression on the state's voters than two Democratic governors who preceded him, Jerry Baliles and Mark Warner. Baliles had more gravitas, and Warner had the Republican legislature purring.  While Kaine is certainly competent, watching him is a bit like listening to an insurance salesman earnestly describing the remarkable features of the new policy he's trying to sell you: You realize the guy is honest and serious, but you really don't want to sit through the whole presentation. The cherubic look and five-o'clock-shadow also don't help.

Here's my great concern:  The McCain campaign knows that its candidate faces horrific political conditions and that their candidate is alternately inept and cranky behind a podium.  McCain has to swing for the fences with his vice presidential choice.  So he'll wait until after Obama has picked a safe, conventional male politician, and then pick Carly Fiorina -- who will be a certifiable media sensation.  It will completely change the dynamics of the race, by giving the media a dramatically attractive new face to become obsessed with, by giving Hillary die-hards a pretext to defect in November, and by showing that John McCain is capable of Change. 

There is only one insurance policy against this:  the other, more successful, and more telegenic governor under consideration, Kathleen Sebelius.  Kaine would be forgotten the moment he dismounts from the podium in Denver.  Sebelius will entrance the media straight through until the election.  This year, it's all about giving fresh reasons to ambivalent independents, to be part of making history.  It's not about who will appeal to certain demographics.

I think Romney would be a disaster for McCain, and Huckabee a smart choice. I am hoping that the "maverick" will pick Romney.

I am still hoping for Sebelius on the Dem side. Yes, I know that she gave a lackluster SOTU response, but I have seen her other speeches, and they were fine. I think trying to match Obama in the wattage department is a fool's errand anyway.

With how tight lipped the Obama camp has been for the past year and a half I just can't imagine them allowing this much information to leak out about his likely pick. I'm not buying it- though I hope the media continues to. It would be great to see them all with their mouths agape when he picks someone who hasn't been on the radar. Don't get me wrong, I like Sebelius and it's not that Kaine is bad-though I saw on the last post someone mentioned Kaine supports off shore drilling which goes against Barack's plans of getting off of oil and I see this as a major problem -he's just still very unknown. I won't be suprised when people stand in awe and say, wow, how did we miss the clues on that one? I really don't think it will be Kaine-it's just too obvious of a choice now. That's why I think Schweitzer may  be in the running but flying under the radar.

That said, the biggest upset would be the horse who hasn't left the starting gate yet. I just don't think we'll be able to get him back in the running -You guessed it, Gore. It would effectively shut up the Clintonites and the Republicans would not be able to fight the amount of enthusiasm he would bring to the ticket. There would be a lot of experience added to the ticket immediately and so where does the Barack isn't experienced arguement go.....it dies. But how ever much I'd like to see that happen...the odds are non-existent at this point.

Barack's confidence speaks volumes to me. It's sort of like he knows he's got an unbeatable ticket. We'll just have to wait and see what it is.

Roy,

How will Huckabee strengthen McCain with independents? The independents I know who are considering McCain think Huckabee is "too far out there"....Huckabee can take the South out of play I know for a fact...but Remember when Huckabee defended Rev Wright....this will give McCain a hard time using that later on (if he intended too)....and the gaffe at the NRA luncheon.... I don't that will play well with independents, yes conservatives, but not independents..... 

I truly feel that McCain doesn't have an all star bench to pick from....

I'm for Sebelius...I think the transportation thing has hurt Kaine...He couldn't "work" with Republicians to get a resolution...

Warner had Republicans "purring" because Chichester, a v. moderate Republican was sympathetic to a rise in taxes and enough other moderates went along.  Those guys are gone and left on the Repub side are the extreme "no taxes" right-wing.  

After Warner, the conservative right wing vowed not to give another Dem gov a legislative victory and they all dutifully take the "no taxes" pledge while offering no plan of their own on transportation, aside from suggesting that counties just task themselves and leave the rest of the state alone.

Kaine is stuck with a right-wing lt. governor, Bolling, and and worse, McDonnell as atty. general.  

I've heard Kaine speak many times, and he can deliver a great campaign speech.  He was super at the JJ dinner in VA.

As reported by Wonkette about 3 months ago (and my own blog shortley thereafter)...www.obamabayh08.com links directly to the Democratic Party website. www.obamakaine08.com? Not so much...

My gut tells me that Kaine is the one.  He just makes more sense than the other short-short-listers.  For those that say leaking Kaine is taking the excitement out of the pick, I say, "So what?"  Obama's candidacy is not in need of excitement.  What his campaign is aiming for is stability, making undecideds comfortable with Obama's ability to calmly and competently steer our ship of state.

Kaine is really a bulletproof pick.  As for a national security/foreign policy choice, I think Obama feels that picking someone with those bona fides lends credence to those who question Obama's ability in those areas.

Nate Silver's thoughts on Kaine are also interesting in that he brings warmth to the ticket.  Money quote:

"A greater problem is that Obama can come across as aloof and arrogant -- or messianic, in the right's favorite phrasing. As Jay Cost ably argues, this has the potential to detract significantly from Obama's core narrative. Kaine would bring humility and good humor to the ticket, and would go some way toward hedging that risk. "

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/tom-and-huckabee.html#comments 

To me, Sebelius comes across also as somewhat aloof - although what a commenter here pointed out about the level of interest she might bring to the ticket is also noteworthy.

If we're talking warmth and good humour - I think Richardson could also bring this (tho' maybe not humility).

And check out the photo of Al Gore in the article - wow!

Speaking of Huckabee, I think we should be organizing our own operation chaos and spreading the word about how "fearful" we are of Romney and what a "super" ticket McCain would have then, and how we are afraid of losing Michigan and NH with Romney on the ticket, etc., etc.

KD

Fiorina would be a terrible choice for McCain.  I don't care how much media hype it would create.  Sure, it would draw lots of attention to the McCain camp, but Fiorina is a big business stooge.  It would cement the view of Republicans as in the pocket of big business.  Plus, Fiorina has absolutely no political experience.  Combining the oldest presidential candidate in history with a political neophyte is not a recipe for electoral success.

Obama is such a luminary on his own that all these folks fail to impress. And I don't say that to take anything away from any of them. They seem like great candidates. But let's face it: he's going to dwarf any one of them, and he's been doing very well lately on his own.

Also, the preceding couple of weeks have turned the foreign policy bogeyman on its head. Obama's trip and prescient prognostications about Iraq, and McSurge's continuous stream of gaffes, have genuinely altered the landscape (which is why the McCain campaign has turned into nothing but anti-Obama bile). Foreign policy "experience" is no longer equal to foreign policy skill.

So it's back to the economy and Latinos. I'm not convinced that this isn't a bait and switch and that Clinton is still a leading contender. She led with Latinos in the primary and can trumpet the Clinton legacy on the economy. And I say this as pure an anti-Clinton guy as any who ever existed, but there are some strange signs (that I'll admit I'm probably misreading): Patti Doyle on VP staff, stories about Clinton beginning to aggressively campaign for Obama in August, her FISA vote (off-setting anger on the left w/ Obama's), and a close and personal relationship w/ Axelrod (Hillary was the Axelrod family's first major supporter of their epilepsy foundation).

@Tribinus Plebis - I wouldn't worry about Fiorina. There's a whole bunch of reasons why even McCain won't touch her with a ten foot pole. Being one of the worst CEOs ever at HP would be top of the list. She was fired. She's also a loose cannon.

Sebelius would be a bad choice in my view. Picking her would just create an angry backlash from many staunch female clinton supporters which is an added headache we really don't need going into November. We just came off a hard fought and somewhat bitter primary and this would feel like pouring salt into the wounds off many democratic female supporters. Also I personally don't see what Sebelius would bring to the ticket to make up for the backlash that would come. On top of that she couldn't even bring Kansas her home state into the democratic column so why pick her. I have problems with Kaine in regards to his stance on choice and offshore drilling but at the very least he would increase our odds significantly of winning Virginia in November which would be a definite plus even though in my view Mark Warner as VP would make Virginia a lock for November. I like Sebelius but I see no advantage in putting her on the ticket. She doesn't help bring a state, she has no foreign policy experience,she isn't very well known and it would create backlash from many female democrats so why go there.

It's RK.

Raising Kaine probably did more then any other blog has done to elect any kind of candidate.

Tim Kaine betrayed Virgina's progressive community though again and again and again. Read back through the RK archives and you will see it. Endorsing the worst kinds of Democrats and splitting the party apart. Pushing for estate tax repeal and other horrible tax plans that benefit the rich, pushing a giant new coal plant that will raise rates and pollute the air.

Kaine now has approval ratings under 50 percent and among party activists in Virgina picking Kaine would be a big FU. To the women who backed Obama over Clinton and argued repeatedly that he was just as strong or stronger a friend to women picking a running mate who has said his position on abortion is the same as Bush's would be a big FU.

Tim Kaine would be a disastrous pick. The only worse pick under serious consideration would be Bayh.

I think Sebelius is by far and away the best pick for Obama. However I think the pick will be Biden and I can live with that.

This just out. A new McCain video that will make you laugh. It's just  GREAT! Send it around.

Al, Jed is spreading the word on this one. You may want to put it up as a post. It's just too good to miss.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgF39TRCPPE

It's pretty hilarious when I hear pundits talk about how a Romney VP will give McCain a boost in Michigan because of his Michigan roots.

George Romney was governor of Michigan from 1963-1969. The youngest person that could have voted for him would now be 62 years old - anyone that remembers the entirety of his governance is going to be at least 70.

I really don't think McCain has to worry about securing the vote of seniors who reminisce about Republicans from the Vietnam era.

Mitt Romney won Michigan because there was no Dem race and because he pandered the hardest to the auto industry workers / anti-immigration people - NOT because we all fondly remember the good ole Romney regime.

I hope all you are right about Kaine not being Sominex as a speaker, but you've got to remember that half of all this is visual.  Kaine is a nondescript balding middle-aged white male.  Sebelius oozes class and dignity -- it's a pleasure to watch her.  As for the concern that Hillary die-hards won't stand for any other woman, I talked recently to a distinguished psychologist and feminist who'd been a big Hillary backer and was still noncommital about Obama, and  I asked her if she felt that another woman as VP would further irritate feminists who'd backed Hillary.  She asked me one question (not knowing anything about Sebelius):  "How old is she?"  When I said 61, she said:  "Oh, no problem then."  And this was a serious feminist talking.  Then later she saw a video of Sebelius and told me that Sebelius projected decisiveness -- she liked her.  So the "no woman but Hillary will do" argument is very dubious...

On that matter, Kos said it really well:

After all the talk of Clinton breaking glass barriers, are her supporters still so hung up on her loss that they're willing to create a new glass ceiling for women candidates, one that excludes anyone not named Hillary Clinton?

 

...I don't have any inkling where Obama is going with this thing, but I do know that being forced to take women off his shortlist lest he offend some Hillary supporters is asinine. I doubt Clinton fought to shatter one glass ceiling to replace it with another.

There is only one rational reason for HRC supporters to oppose Sebelius or any other woman for VP: consolidate all feminine power in Washington in the hands of one, and only one, woman. It's the "tell" that indicates that such sentiment isn't about women's liberation or rights, but about stomping out any other woman from rising in US politics. That's called misogyny.

It's so outrageous that part of me hopes Obama will pick Sebelius, just to piss those people off. I also like Kaine and Schweitzer for many of the same reasons I like Sebelius: people not socialized into the ways that Washington does business. That was a big part of Obama's attraction to a lot of voters - he wasn't, as he likes to say, "boiled" in DC waters for sufficient time to become one of them. The VP pick should ideally underscore that message.

Also, to Karl - Some of the points you raise about Kaine, even his looks, are fair game, and including his position against late term abortions. But to describe that position as, in your words,  "the same as Bush's" is just wrong. Kaine's position is pro-choice in all other cases (which is the vast majority, practically speaking, of all abortions in the country). I've said that I think to thread this needle Kaine will need to stand up and announce an evolution of his position to respect the right to late-term abortions, too. But it's just a smear point to claim that his position is the same as that of the fully anti-choice Bush.

Al- You've been able to make some pretty amazing predictions in the past. Do you think like many of us do that Kaine really is just cover? That perhaps he really is going to choose someone else? It would be so sloppy to let this information leak out like this...It seems like the test balloon before the actual release. I know I keep saying it but if the media beat him to the punch on this a lot of the excitement surrounding his choice will be lost. Come on, what's your GUT feeling?

I haven't researched Kaine's record on choice (including past statements), but someone from NOW on MSNBC today indicated she would be disappointed if Obama chose him, specifically because his position on choice is not as good as Obama (according to her).  The Bush comment seems to be presented as a quote, but my cursory search did not turn up any such quote by Kaine.  It would be an odd thing to say, since Kaine is for abortion rights in nearly all cases.  What I hear is the supposed lack of clarity on the criteria for late-term abortion is getting people's feathers ruffled.

Si somos americanos, seremos buenos vecinos;
compartiremos el trigo,seremos buenos hermanos -- canción de Rolando Alarcón

Todos somos americanos.-- Barack Obama

Al- I'm in the same boat you are in hoping Sebelius is picked partly to tick off the PUMA's. But I'm am so sick of the childish petulant crap, and the eagerness to tear down any woman who is not Hillary.

The only people who would be irate over Sebelius being picked are those who aren't going to vote for Obama anyway. So if she is who he wants, I hope their behavior is not a deterrent.

So Kaine pulled out of an event tomorrow night in Baltimore

http://politickermd.com/wallyedgemd/3025/source-kaine-pulls-out-08-unity-fundraiser

and Obama is in Missouri tomorrow (Missouri where Kaine grew up and went to College).

Kaine was never going there to begin with.  Information is wrong.  Kaine is also not for off-shore drilling for oil--he's for exploring the possibility of gas and then if it's there, deciding what to do.  I guess looks are fair game, but I never thought FDR, Johnson, or Lincoln had great looks.  I don't know what looks tell you about someone's abilities.  

One reason to get a vp in place sooner rather than later is to have a high level surrogate to help respond to attacks.

I'd still love to see a hard hitting ad about McCain's smears on the nixed troop visit.  Right now there are plenty of MSM quotes that could be used about it being lots of lies.

By the way, I see that Obama has a response ad running in key states focused on the McCain ad that said that Obama was responsible for high gas prices.  It has the counterattack and pivot mode that he used against Clinton. You can see it here: http://www.jedreport.com/2008/07/obamas-not-quit.html

"Sebelius would be a bad choice in my view. Picking her would just create an angry backlash from many staunch female clinton supporters which is an added headache we really don't need going into November."

-Those staunch female Clinton supporters will not be happy with ANY of Obama's picks for VP because the pick will not be Hillary Clinton.

I hope he picks Sebelius.

Arelle,

"Indepedent" is a title that covers a lot of ground. Huckabee won't impress left-leaning indies. However, his humility and sense of humor could go a long way for those on the right. Some of his fundamentalist wing nuttery might hurt with libertarian-type independents but I could see many of them being won over too. Charm, humor and appearing non-partisan (e.g. defending Obama on Wright) could play very well.

Also, don't underestimage locking down the South. That would save McCain from having to play nearly as much defense on his turf.

- the newest convert...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/30/opinion/30dowd.html?hp

Everyone check out this fantastic article by Paul Jenkins at HuffPo.

Obama Still Does Not Know His Place

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-jenkins/obama-still-does-not-know_b_115671.html

Claus:

With all due respect, it doesnt look to me like the "whip jealous" Dowd is a convert.

In 2000, she was one of the principle vendors of the "Gore is a lying claimer of inventor of everything" meme.

This looks to me like the development of the 08 meme and I think it is a belittling nasty piece of work.

Here's an interesting article that attempts to show the ability of each candidate to pull in votes for the ticket. I think it provides evidence for my assertions re: Huckabee, but more importantly it provides info on all of the prospects we've been discussing on both sides of the aisle.

Sebelius looks particularly strong. So does Bayh, but for all of the reasons set forth by Al, I hope he doesn't get picked. Schweitzer looks pretty strong too.

Here's the link: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/vp-contenders-by-numbers.html

On Fox News Sunday, Bill Kristol predicted Obama would pick Kaine. Kristol is 100% wrong at all times, even when he pushes a button in an elevator or orders lunch at a fast-food joint. He's 200% more wrong than stopped clocks. Therefore, Obama will not pick Kaine. If he does, it could tear a hole in the fabric of the universe, possibly with catastrophic consequences.

I saw that - interesting.

I looked up Bayh on Wikipedia - sounds like he had an Al Gore type upbringing (son of senator - educated in DC private schools).

He was also chairman of the DLC from 2001-2005.

Also:

"Bayh, in contrast to Senator Richard Lugar, was an early supporter of the Bush administration's policies on Iraq.^[5] On October 2, 2002, Bayh joined President George W. Bush and Congressional leaders in a Rose Garden ceremony announcing their agreement on the joint resolution authorizing the Iraq War, and was thanked by Bush and Senator John McCain for co-sponsoring the resolution"

KD

Kaine actually has a higher negative rating in Virginia than positive, and Larry Sabato said today "Few nonpartisan observers in Virginia regard Kaine's tenure in the Governor's Office as particularly successful. ...having studied the records of the dozen most recent governors, I would characterize Kaine's term to this point as belonging to the bottom quartile." Kaine purchased an advertisement to accompany that column in Rasmussen. Did he also tell Webb to bow out? The "I'm still being mentioned" line yesterday shows inexperience and that he hasn’t heard anything that’s not in the paper.

The discussion of Kaine is a result of an alignment of the stars that includes his early endorsement of Obama and background in common, as well as the "Catholic, Gov of a Southern battleground state, Spanish-speaking" trifecta. But if you look at the map, Obama doesn’t have to win a state here or there, he has to raise money from his base, excite the electorate, and remove doubts about his presidency.

Kaine has rode the coattails of Mark Warner and weakened the Democratic position in the state in the process. Schweitzer ended a 16 year reign of Republicans governors through his own policy innovations and credibility.

They’re going to pick a Gov with higher negative ratings than positives over a Gov - also Catholic - who’s made his mark on energy policy with approval ratings over 70% in a red state because Virginia has more electoral votes? Schweitzer would bring his popularity and his change message nationwide.

Reed is considered the most popular Senator in his state, but said he doesn’t want VP and has oratorical talents that seem more suited to the Senate. He voted against the Iraq War resolution which indicates real foreign policy expertise rather than imagined (Biden, Dodd), expertise he shares in the Senate with Feingold, Durbin, and Leahy, all more potentially helpful VPs. The media thinks anyone who talks in concert with their latest scare report is a foreign policy expert, a point from which the electorate vehemently differs, hence Obama’s nomination.

Based on the short lists that are reportedly coming from ‘sources,’ I’m less than impressed with Holder and Kennedy. Holder has been stuck inside Washington all his life. I have nothing against Kennedy but she may be more enamored of Teddy’s Senate colleagues than the electorate.

Ezzy - I think the guy has a wealth of riches to choose from and, as my post infers, it might well be down to Kaine or Sebelius (with my own bias toward Schweitzer creating interference on my ability to predict). I repeat that Kaine would have to "clarify" his stances on late term abortions and also, it seems, offshore petroleum exploration, and if he starts to do that, it will be "the tell."

I read on Jonathon Martin's blog that Huckabee recently compared McCain to Bob Dole.....how is that going to help with the Huckster.... I would be surprised if McCain was considering Huckabee.....he is making his ways around the media outlets too much to be considered....I haven't heard anything from Crist, Romney or Pawlenty....

While watching MSNBC I happened to catch a interview with AZ Gov. Janet Napolitano. What struck me was how vice-presidentail she looked. The whole interview was conducted by Mike Hardwood and he only mentioned the V.P stakes in passing not pressing her with the questions on her possible vetting by the Obama Campaign. The beltway bozo pundits could be chasing a red herring in Kaine and Janet Napolitano may be higher on that V.P list than we think with the Obama camp throwing sand in the media's eye's. I will take a leap and say that while the media is looking the other way I may of seen a Solis Doyle preped Napolitano making a dry-run on T.V while the Obama camp watched from afar. Is she his pick my gut tells me she is up there and if Obama is the poker player they allege him to be he might be calling the media's bluff while keeping his real cards close to his chest.

Besides being duller than dull as a speaker and having zero presence in front of a camera, because of his Catholicism, Kaine is also against stem cell research.  Not a big plus with progressives, moderates and even many conservatives.

True, he speaks Spanish fluently, which means he can put people to sleep in two different languages.  So, if erradicating sleep deprivation in America becomes a big campaign issue, Kaine will be an asset to the ticket.

You made my day, Betty!  From your username on, you had me "cracking" up.  Bless poor Bill Kristol's tiny shriveled heart!

The more Kaine keeps making coy comments about the VP slot, the less I think he's actually going to be selected for it.

Of course, I'm also hoping for a Schweitzer Schurprise, so cloudy judgement, etc.

Also the Bill Kristol comment was spot-on. It amazes me how such an awful writer who is so absolutely, consistently wrong about everything ever can keep his job. Hell, he keeps getting more respectable jobs.

Although Huck would likely be McCain's best option, my guess is he goes with Pawlenty or someone entirely off radar.

Napolitano is very smart and has been popular in a Republican state. Her background is as a "law and order" prosectuor. She would hold her own as a campaigner and in the debates. It would be a gutsy move in that it would force the media to discuss the possiblity of Obama winning McCain's home state of Arizona.

The negative is it would take out a Democratic governor, replacing her with a Republican. I'm guessing Obama would take Sebelius first.

 Tim Kaine did an hour long interview with Charlie Rose.

 Bill in Mexico City next Monday, ugh!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/30/AR2008073003186.html

Senior Senate staffer David Wade is finally cutting the apron strings. Wade is leaving the office of Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), the only politician for whom the 32-year-old aide has worked in his 11-year career on Capitol Hill, to become spokesman for Sen. Barack Obama's running mate (whoever that may be).

Today is scheduled to be Wade's last day in Kerry's office before he jets off to Chicago to settle in with the Obama campaign.

 Pelosi promoting Texas Rep. Chet Edwards as an Obama running mate.

Also, Tom Ridge.

McCain vetting Eric Cantor-VA

These are names I have not been aware of as running mates for either candidate. What are the chances for one of them to become a running mate?  Do they leak this stuff to keep us all guessing?

Nothing has changed that, and nothing will. And THAT is why Romney will be chosen. Of course he ate the 45 million....he's been promised far more for being VP.