VP Watch: Light a Candle for the Three Point Shot

I am lighting a candle as well Al.  I want it to be Kaine, Schweitzer, or Sebelius...anyone inside the beltway would be dissappointing to me especially Evan Bayh who would SERIOUSLY dissappoint me....

I can't imagine Bayh who has Mark Penn as his political adviser in both the governorship and the senate, who supported Clinton, who voted for the war, who is a member of the DLC.  To me he is the antithesis to Obama and his message.  Picking Bayh would just make me question Obama's message and sincerity.

I could live with Biden...and would love Kaine...and be thrilled with Sebelius and/or Schweitzer....I'm lighting my candle...please Obama pick someone who strengthens your message and doesn't take away from it or represent the complete opposite of your messages core.

I'm lighting a candle for anyone who has neither made insensitive remarks about African-Americans, Indian-Americans or any other ethnic minority group nor has employed Mark Penn.

So, that would rule out ... Hillary, Evan, Joe and, of course, George Allen.  And Kramer from Seinfeld is toast as well.

"I'm not afraid to have folks around me who complement my strengths and who are independent"

That says Biden to me.

"I try to surround myself with people who are about getting the job done, and who are not about ego, self-aggrandizement, getting their names in the press, but our focus on what's best for the American people."

That doesn't.

The mountain west is the future of the party, and the Montana governor will help us in hs home state, ND, SD, and CO.  Let's see just how bold Obama can be.

Nothing but net for me would be Sebelius. Clinton as a choice would seriously piss me off. Everyone else falls somewhere on that scale.

I think that the presumptive nominee is practicing his 3-point shot right about now. Al, I think it's great that you are lighting a candle for this great opportunity. I'm all for shooting the best shots and full-court presses. It's the Sebelius/Schweitzer/Kaine narrative.

Let the games begin!

I have always thought that Obama would pick someone who reinforced his core message of change.  Schweitzer & Sebelius would do just that.  But when he was leading throughout July & much of August, I feared he would get too tentative and go with a Bayh or Biden (both of whom are competent).

Will the changing poll numbers allow Obama to make the 3 pointer & force McCain to go safe?  My only worry about Schweitzer is that he seems like a bit of a "boutique" pick. With Sebelius, he has a chance to grab undecided women voters, of which there are many.

I think selecting someone from outside the beltway would be ideal.  It fits so perfectly with his storyline.  I work in downtown DC and let me tell you that I am ready for change!  Schweitzer or Sebelius would thrill me. (My instinct leans toward Sebelius and my heart leans toward Schweitzer.)

Watching people work themselves into a frenzy over his VP pick is just too hilarious.  I love that no one knows anything.  All I know is that no matter who he selects, I am going to continue to work hard and financially contribute to getting Senator Obama elected as our next President.

Are people's votes directly influenced by who is #2?  What is the historical record of this?

Getting ready for a long weekend away from the net. Beginning very soon now. Signed up via email, not fone (old grandfathered cel phone plan), so will be relying on others for the news. Or I may end up getting my cel phone in on the act.

Gobama!

 for Schweitzer, Sebellius or even Kaine. If the text does not come today, I am praying for Gore to be announced next week. Please God, not HRC.

The tease is starting to get a little old. Tired of waiting :) 

Can hit Columbia, MO where he went to college, Kansas City where he grew up, and El Dorado KS where both of their mothers are from.

I'm with Christi, in that order.

And while this is 'getting a little old' - I think it's a tribute to the leadership skills of BHO, and the team he has put in place to lead his campaign - what a GLORIOUS example - contrasted with other campaigns (even b4 we read Josh Green's Atlantic article) as a forerunner to the administration we can expect.

Think this is a case where the weekend 'no media' history will NOT apply!

Something that just occured to me was to go look at the individual states' pages on the Obama website. The thought came to me that by looking at the layout and activity on each state's site, you can tell which states are the ones they're looking to do battle in. Some states have big "Neighbor to neighbor" or "Volunteer to register" sections while others don't, or have links to "Sportsmen for "Obama" or "Students for Obama" or the like.

States with a lot of these things include:

Missouri, Virigina, North Carolina, Ohio, Montana (not so much for Kansas), Utah, Nevada, New Mexico(!?).

An admittedly unscientific survey (it would be interesting to take snapshots of all the states' pages and compare them side-by-side), but it seems to indicate that a big push will be made for a number of the Western states - and that would point to Schweitzer.

(1) Al Gore

He was against the war from day one and spoke out against it forcefully and challenged President Bush forcefully. He is a veteren. He is definitly ready to lead on day one. And he would rally the Democratic faithful and be a media frenzy.

A definite three point shot that could be released SATURDAY if they wanted and attract a lot of attention.

(2) Howard Dean

It's a very inside pick but that is okay because he has the outside factor down cold. He isn't really a Washington guy. He has executive experience. He can hit hard. He can hit the health care message w/authority as well. A genuine nice guy that would put the netroots into a frenzy. And he was against the war in Iraq.

These are my two fallbacks if the 3 point shot doesn't come today.

Either way: we need the VP to be on constant attack. I think the Obama team has grasped that fact given how quickly they jumped on the "John McCain doesn't know how many homes he has" quote from this morning.

I've gazed into the crystal ball. The text message/e-mail will come early Fri. or Sat morning. The nominee will be Sebelius. The Sat. morning roll-out in Springfield and the tour are pointing to this scenario.

The longer he waits, the more I (naively) think Gore could actually be the one.  Is it just me, or is Al Gore the only possible choice who gives you experience AND change in the same package?

The narrative would be that Gore would become the Anti-Cheney.  It could work very well.

 A new ad for Nevada "Dangerous"

Can I just add that the way the Obama camp has kept this decision process under wraps is simply amazing.  Talk about a cone of silence! The message discipline is impressive, no matter who the pick is. It really appears that nobody--absolutely nobody--knows anything outside of their teacup.

Another candle lit.

Rhoda

I will support whoever Obama chooses but I would be positively estatic if it was either Gore or Dean.  I hold out no hope for either of those 2 but a girl can dream can't she?

amk

It's a pick n' roll to a fadeaway jumper from outside the line.  I think one thing Obama has is plenty of self-confidence (probably the thing that infuriates the hand-wringers re: fighting back, punchy soundbite debating style...).  So I'm going with a choice that reinforces the theme - "Change we can believe in".  That's not working the paint, that's 3 point territory.

(Actually I like baseball...)

Dean fits all the descriptions Obama has been giving.  The one above talks about listening to people with different opinions from himself, and with the conservative way Obama's been voting recently, Dean would bring a much different perspective to policy decisions.  People tend to assume that quote would mean a more "centrist" mentality like Ever Blah (DLC-IN), but it could just as well mean more influence from actual Liberals.

On the organizing front, Dean and Obama couldn't be any more alike.  There's incredible commonality between Obama's campaign and anything Dean has ever done.  Dean's already moved the DNC office (for the most part) to Chicago, so they could hit the ground running.

Christi @10:39:  Perhaps that'll be the slogan for the rest of the campaign?  "John McCain: More of the Same."  Rhyming is always good, and that narrative works well with what polling has been saying.  We can't let McInsane get his "mavrickety" groove back and separate himself from Shrubya, which he's been trying to do recently.

...mentioned in Christi's post above - I LOVE that shot of McCain and Bush waving from the porch at the White House under the "More of the same" title.  Love that.

I feel like Obama and the media are in a wrestling match with this VP thing and the media is being pinned to the mat, squealing and flailing about wildly.

Also of interest: the debates have been agreed upon.

Lehrer (podium), Brokhaw (town hall), and Schieffer (table) are the moderators; I can live with that.

...to the hardcore Clintonites who used to actually light virtual online candles for HRC (http://www.gratefulness.org/candles/candles.cfm?l=eng&gi=hrc), which always mega creeped me out for some reason... i have metaphorically sparked it up!

i also love your Rorschach analogy: i saw Biden until the part about TV-loving ego... and in then the "i'm not afraid" part, i saw Clinton.  that would NOT make me happy, but whatever, i am a firmly committed member of the "my candidate, right or wrong" club!

but the lack of fear could also mean Sebelius, and screw what the PUMAs, Ferraro's, Buells and their ilk will say or do. she would be great in my book, though she makes me nervous for purely demographic reasons.

i've been betting on Kaine from jump, but the one thing throwing me off is the smartness of the Obama campaign, and them knowing the value of a huge suprise... and that makes any of the "boys du jour" of the last weeks suspect in my book.

so, i've realized i'm lighting my candle for Schweitzer.  i know very little about him other than what i've read here, because no one else is talking about him because he's not on the TMs shortlist.  but i see how excited progressives are about him, and that can only be good for the campaign to tap.  but frankly, i trust their judgment, whomever they choose.

one thought about the CW that people don't vote for Prez based on the VP choice:  clearly that's held true in the past (hello, Quayle?) but Obama, for many reasons, pro and con, is not a conventional politician, and (spoiler alert), he's black.  so much as we've seen him held to a different standard in so many different ways, i do think that for a certain section of the electorate, his Veep choice will be determinative.  how large that section is what i don't know.

I wonder if there's any chance that it's Warner.  If not Warner, I'm hoping for Schweitzer.

I keep checking my cell phone to make sure it's on and text messaging is working. :)

or the second half if you like soccer like me. There is no golden goal...

Here is an add about Jon McCain not remembering how many houses he has.

"Days and days of heightended drama turned to a discussion of the merits of Evan Bayh" just doesn't sound right. Schweitzer would get larger groups of citizens active in this race rather than hoping at home that McCain doesn't beat the less offensive insiders. Has the MSM promoted any VP option that voted against the war, after chiding Obama on ABC for his position? The candle burns here.

Regarding Al's update:

and all of those choices are still 6-22 years younger than McCain.

As for McCain's VP pick, his assumed choices right now are a pro-choicer, a jew, a mormon, and a few others are embarassingly younger than him; not exactly the kind of choices that excite the Republican base (and in some cases would cause chaos). There's a good chance he may pick a mystery candidate - but I am going to guess such a mystery candidate would be a conservative, and not a risky, choice.

forgot to say that despite all evidence and logic to the contrary... i also think there's a tiny chance the supdeduper suprise pick could be...  Gore.

Interesting that you added Caroline Kennedy's name to the list. I didn't even realize that she was under consideration. Where did that one come from?

Between here and 538 we're all over the map. Now tell me WHY Obama is planning to spend NEXT Tuesday night in Billings? Does this not open the door for our man? Brian's office does not even know and no one will confirm. BUT. If this is so then we are back at Al's sagacious initial post, the only one of the lot I have been willing to call an interesting possibility that makes good sense. Imagine the suspense. Imagine the delight we would feel if Brian was the nominee. The link to this little Billings thing is on the current Obama blog. Ciao, S

I don't think it will be Sibelius, because there is the danger that a pick of a woman other than Hillary will only further piss off the HRC supporters.  And I'd bet that the Obama campaign has calculated that this country just isn't ready for a ticket that features a black guy and a white woman.  That's just too big a leap for a culturally primitive society like the USA.  So I'm guessing the VP pick will be a white guy, and I hope it's not one of the boring ones like Biden or Bayh.  Schweitzer or Kaine would bring some fresh air into the equation.

Hi Al,

You have Schweitzer: September 4, 1955 and Bayh: December 26, 1955. Doesn't that make Schweitzer older than Bayh?

Iowa has 7 electoral votes.

However, Al may be using some very clever prolepsis here, since after the 2010 census we are almost assured to lose one. ;)

Fingers crossed for Schweitzer.  He's outside the Beltway and someone that will drive McCain and camp BANANAS with straight talk-- it shows Obama as being serious about bringing in the right people to fix problems and throws a hanging curve ball that will shift the narrative on Obama completely-- wait...he picked WHO?  A western governor who is pro-gun, pro-choice, pro-clean energy and wears a bolo tie?  frame the iraq war in terms of foreign dependence on oil and the McCain and the surge is working narrative becomes a negative in different terms.  please make it so.

thanks Orlando, now THAT'S a powerful ad.

I still get a giggle about the people who underestimate the core, the strength of the skinny guy with the great smile!!!!!!!!

If Barack's three-point shot is out of left field, will McCain throw a Hail Mary pass?

But seriously - I'm getting psyched. I'm headed to Springfield on Saturday, and I can't wait to see the amazing natural chemistry between Obama and...er, someone.

And I think all evidence above points to an announcement of Sebelius, Schweitzer or Kaine in the next 72 hours. The comments about ego and the press seem to rule out Biden and HRC. And Gore. And Madonna.

seems to be a bit weak.  Validation of the rope-a-dope strategy, I guess-- play defense until your opponent runs out of gas, then go out aggressively.

(Also, the front-page image on TPM, of McCain as Uncle Pennybags, is neat.)

I'm getting the feeling Obama might go for the shock pick and choose Hillary. Many people may ask why would he choose Hillary. The answer is simple - the main reason Obama and McCain are so close in the polls is because McCain has garnered a higher percentage of the republican base than Obama has of the democratic base. Putting Hillary on the ticket would immediately increase the percentage of the democrats that support the ticket  and bring many stay democrats home.  She is well known and no time would have to spent introducing the VP to the voters. There are more registered democrats than there are registered republicans. If Obama locks up at least 90% of the democratic base - he wins. If on top of securing the vast majority of democrats we add the vast number of new voter registrations the campaign is bringing into the fold, you have a possibility for a landside.  Obama is a pragmatist. It would not surprise me in the least now if Clinton ends up being the pick.

If the pick is from Bayh, Kaine or Biden I think it will be Biden. He is well known, has great foreign policy credentials(with the exception of the vote for the Iraq war) and would be an aggressive attack dog that wouldn't hesitate to go after the republicans and show no mercy. It will be intriguing to see who he actually picks.

For those of you with a memory of the 2000 election campaign - what did Bush's pick of Cheney do for him?  Presumably he picked him because of the "experience" card.  Is there any way to judge whether that pick helped him? When I think about it that way I could see Obama picking Clark (also not a senator, don't have to worry about that, outspoken against Iraq war).  I remember before he ran for President in 2004 he was on TV quite a bit bashing Bush and I liked him a lot then.  I turned off him when he started to run for president though - he just wasn't as compelling.

Still lighting my candle for Schweitzer though.

KD

his precious houses.

http://thepage.time.com/2008/08/21/obama-continues-tour-through-virginia-thursday/

That response has so many juicies begging to be hit outside the park. Let the fun begin.

amk

Dan and Anonymous - Thanks for the corrections!

"...and he always will be." Said about Evan Bayh, and has colored my impression of the man since. 

The speculation has gone on for so long, I can't help but think that both eventual announcements will be met with "Noooooooo" from half the blogosphere and "Who?" from the rest of the country. And yet a good choice is of limited help--people will vote based on the top of the ticket. Only a bad choice (e.g. McCain picking someone who seems unready to step into his shoes) will have consequences. (I think Clinton would risk anti-Clinton voters, but I think it's pretty much impossible that she's the pick.)

The “Seven” ad is yet another master stroke.  I marvel at how quickly they came up with it to capitalize on comments made by JSM III.  Almost every ad that we’ve seen posted here shows McCain with Bush.  This one shows Obama with a smiling white senior female at the beginning as contrast.  The voice-overs on these ads are pitch-perfect, too.  The “Embrace” ad that showcased the voice of the ‘scary movie trailer guy’ was stellar.  These ad agencies are really earning their money.  The writing and editing…flawless. 

The Obama campaign seems to use opposition research so cleverly.  Instead of coming out with an ad early on to bash McCain for his 7 houses, they wait for the opening to exploit using quotes from news outlets.  McCain routinely obliges by providing copy to underscore how out of touch he is.  This is fun to watch.

And this is really the only blog that's been playing it. 

GOD, let it not be Bayh - that would be such a turn-off, especially with all the reports that the base is not solidified. If Obama won't pick Hillary (and he won't) and Gore doesn't want it, it HAS to be an "OMG!" pick when we get that phone call. Biden and Kaine and Sebellius don't do that (although Biden now would be somewhat reassuring); Dean sure as Hell would.

As would two other names not being mentioned: Wesley Clark and, surprisingly, Bill Richardson.

Schweitzer would be cool too, though.

I'd LOVE it to be Schweitzer but doesn't that remove a Democrat out of a Republican state? Next in line is a Republican, no?

I have a source close to Russ who insists that Russ is simply playing both sides of the street, because he will have to work with both Senators regardless of the election outcome.  One as President, the other back in the Senate.  And he actually likes McCain.

Still, I have sensed a touch of resentment from Feingold re: Obama.  He did consider running for President this year, and he must know that if Obama wins it will be eight years before he'll have another shot at the White House.  But if McCain wins, the country will be so FUBAR in 2012 that it might be ready for a Democrat with his progressive cred.

And I have been an advocate for an Obama/Feingold ticket, but my friend and Feingold both insist that is not going to happen.

McCain's difficulty counting houses came up today and already there's an ad about it.  Three cheers for the electronic age, we're cookin'.