"This Was the Moment": One Year Ago Tonight in Iowa
By Al Giordano
Part II has, in my view, the most memorable lines of Obama's victory speech...
"I know you didn't do this for me. You did this because you believed so deeply in the most American of ideas: that in the face of impossible odds, people who love this country can change it...
"My journey began on the streets of Chicago doing what so many of you have done for this campaign and all the campaigns here in Iowa: Organizing and working and fighting to make people's lives just a little bit better. I know how hard it is. It comes with little sleep, little pay, and a lot of sacrifices. There are days of disappointment but sometimes, just sometimes, there are nights like this...
"You'll be able to look back at this night and say that this was the moment when it all began... when the improbable beat what Washington said was inevitable... This was the moment when we finally beat back the politics of fear and doubt and cynicism, the politics where we tear each other down instead of lifting this country up. This was the moment. Years from now, you'll look back and you'll say that this was the moment, this was the place where America remembered what it means to hope. For many months we've been teased, even derided, for talking about hope. We always knew that hope is not blind optimism. It's not ignoring the enormity of the task ahead or the roadblocks that stand in our path. It's not sitting on the sidelines or shirking from a fight. Hope is that thing inside us that insists, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that something better awaits us if we have the courage to reach for it, to work for it, and to fight for it."
Most pollsters had a dreadful time attempting to take measurement of what the results of the Iowa caucuses would be. Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com wrote, on January 2, 2008 (correction: 2007!) that Iowa was "the pollster's nightmare":
The most puzzling - as noted by our friend Mickey Kaus - involves the performance of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in two polls of likely Democratic caucus goers conducted in Iowa in late December by Research2000 and the American Research Group (ARG). Both showed John Edwards with roughly the same support (20-22%). ARG Research 2000 showed Clinton leading with 31% and Obama running distant forth (at 10%) behind outgoing Iowa governor Tom Vilsack (17%). Research 2000 ARG showed Obama and Edwards tied for first (22%), with Clinton running forth (10%) behind Vilsack (17%).
So...Hillary Clinton is either their clear front runner in Iowa (with 31%) or running a distant fourth (with 10%).
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the pollster's nightmare: The Iowa Caucuses.
Here's the aggregation of polls in Iowa which had Senator Clinton in the lead right up until the end:
The "entrance poll" taken by the networks as Iowans entered the caucuses that evening had Obama at 35 percent (winning a whopping 57 percent of all caucus-goers under 30), with Edwards and Clinton in the mid 20 percentiles.
The final results (after supporters of also-rans Richardson, Biden, Dodd and Kucinich made their second choices) were:
Obama 38 percent
Edwards 30
Clinton 29
It was that Iowa victory that catapulted Obama upward and toward the eventual nomination and election as president of the United States.
The aggregation of national polls showed Obama twenty points behind Clinton in the Autumn of 2007. He began to inch upward in December and after Iowa shot straight up, finally overtaking Clinton in mid-February and never slipping behind after that:
Iowa gave viability to Obama's campaign and created an almost immediate shift in the African-American vote nationwide which, until a year ago tonight, had, according to all polls, supported Clinton over Obama. Iowa caused many African-Americans (and others) who had thought that white folks would never support a black presidential candidate to look at the results of lily white Iowa and conclude, "yes, we can."
I've got the staff here digging through the archives to find some of my postings from that week, a year ago, at another now-defunct website (we've got them, it's just a matter of conducting an archeological dig!), but I wanted to get those videos up in time for happy hour.
Update: And here it is, my post from January 2, 2008...
It's not the polls that tell us who will win tomorrow, but other factors: field organization (it really does matter), message, resources and how they've been deployed. All of them point to an Obama victory in Iowa tomorrow.
Just a few days ago when all holiday season polls were showing Clinton or Edwards ahead or surging in Iowa, I tried to gently suggest, in a number of ways, why Obama is, polls be damned, likely to win college educated women away from Clinton and hold onto college educated men against a late surge from Edwards. And I also opined that while everyone talks about his younger voter support, that Obama's "nuclear weapon" would be Independent voters flooding the Democratic caucuses in record numbers.
That Des Moines Register pollster J. Anne Selzer found that weapon on her radar screen will, if it comes true, increase the deserved mystique and credibility that surrounds her ability to figure out who will turn out to vote before the balloting starts. Even if she's off by nine points on her projection that 40 percent of Democratic caucus-goers will be Independent voters, she'll still have been closer to the real number than any other pollster, and will have told, in advance, the story of tomorrow night. (The DMR tonight offers more detail on the Independent tsunami that it reports is headed the Democrats' way.) But even if her poll had shown opposite results, I'd still be predicting an Obama win for tomorrow.
Obama is likely to win because he staffed the largest field organization and he did so early: more field offices and - prior to a wave of late arrivals over the past month for Clinton - he had more staff on Iowan ground than any other candidate. Through the Camp Obama training programs all summer long, the Obama campaign prepared its troops well through a program developed by, among others, veteran community organizer Marshall Ganz and rising field superstar Temo Figueroa.
Clinton's Iowa field marshal Theresa Vilmain as much as admitted to reporters that Clinton got a late start in Iowa. Meanwhile, Obama targeted young people (the others ignored them or scorned them as non-voting miscreants) including Independents, and defended them when DMR political reporter David Yepsen crusaded briefly against non-native students at Iowa universities participating. While Clinton, Dodd and Biden pandered to Yepsen, Obama dug in - at some risk, given Yepsen's long arm over the process - and showed mettle that should reap dividends tomorrow night.
During the many debates, while pundits opined that Obama had lackluster performances, something else was going on at ground level: TV news focus groups of Iowa voters showed Obama usually convincing more Hawkeye state voters that watched them than the other candidates. Obama has consistently drawn the largest crowds throughout Iowa all year long and over the past week, and in hyper-active effort to avoid the errors of Howard Dean four years ago, his campaign prioritized enlisting those that came to fill out pledge cards to caucus and be incorporated into the campaign organization.
The proximity of Obama's state of Illinois to Iowa will also play a role in this victory: he's likely to build up margins of victory in Eastern Iowa border counties, some quite populous. (For those that think that the late US Sen. Paul Simon of Illinois failed to do that in 1988, take a trip in the Wayback Machine to William Saletan's finding that year that Simon may have actually won the '88 Iowa caucuses.)
Money has also played a role, as it always does in politics. This year, the turnout of first-time caucus-goers, including Independent voters, will also be fueled by simple math. Halperin quotes CBS News' Campaign Notebook tonight: "Candidates spent $65 million in Iowa this year, three times 2004's total." Well, you often get back what you pay out, and Obama's success fundraising with (what is now approaching) 500,000 donors, most of them small, gave him the resources to go dollar for dollar with the once inevitable Clinton machine, even if we include in the totals the $2.5 million in independent expenditures made on her behalf.
Yes, money can't buy you love, so in the end it comes down to Obama's buzzword of "change," now recited by all candidates. (When, as today, Clinton say she is "fired up and ready to go," Iowans understand the "me-too" nature of such proclamations. The writing is on the wall.)
For all these reasons and more, that's why I call tomorrow's Iowa caucus for Obama.
(Bold-type emphasis added.)
And to think, a year later, we're 17 days away from that then-underdog taking the oath of office.
Then it will really be show time.
Email this page
Al
Submitted on January 3rd, 2009 by Elliot KaufmanHope you can get those old predictions of yours up, as I recall, you had a pretty kick-ass record this primary season (only really missing Texas primary, New Hampshire, and South Dakota, as I recall, very impressive Mr. Giordano).
"The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie, deliberate, contrived and dishonest, but the myth, persistent, persuasive and unrealistic.” JFK
It was on that night
Submitted on January 3rd, 2009 by Anne Crumptonthis older white woman born in NY, initially enthralled with a breaking glass ceiling, woke up and said: Yes, we can! A month later I became a serial contributor to help make it happen.
I found The Field after writing to Deb and am so glad I did.
Thanks Al and all of you for sharing this journey! Fired up and ready to go!
I can't say how much that night meant to me
Submitted on January 3rd, 2009 by rikyrah (not verified)My Mama, who is no longer with us, was born and raised in Jim Crow Mississippi. I watched HER subdued reaction to Obama's win. Could you imagine it. that night was so stunning.
one year ago
Submitted on January 3rd, 2009 by Nancy MickenbeckerThanks, Al, for the reminder on the date. I spent the last 9 days before Jan 3 in Iowa, part of the last push before the caucuses. I had the privilege of getting to help at the caucus in the precinct that two of us had spent 8 days going door to door in.
Our caucus went long and by the time it was over, we knew Barack had won Iowa! Watching Barack's speech with everyone else at the Obama HQ in Davenport is one of those memories of a lifetime for me. It was an amazing speech - and an amazing experience - and I feel so lucky to have been part of Iowa.
I will watch the speech again tonight, and though I won't be screaming as we all were that night in Iowa, I'm pretty sure I will still have the crying part down. What an amazing man we have elected as our president.
That night in Iowa, I was certain we would win in NH 5 days later and would win the whole thing easily in the first 4 contests. In retrospect, I believe that losing NH was the best thing that could have happened, because Barack got stronger and stronger and by the general election, there really wasn't much they would do with Rev. Wright.
Maybe it's not right to say it, but I feel it was destiny - that Barack is exactly the right person at exactly the right time in history.
Thank you to everyone who helped make this happen!
Thanks to Iowa
Submitted on January 3rd, 2009 by lamh31 (not verified)have to say that this is what started this roller coaster for me. I am 32 years old, and I have voted in every election I could since I was 18, but I was not active in politics at all. I had a rudimentary understanding of some of the issues, due to being career college student until I wa 25, but I was vested in any one candidate. I've always voted Democrat, and usually just voted for whomever the Democrat was. I had not heard of Obama, had no idea who he was or what he stood for, but this Iowa win woke me up. I became interested. By South Carolina, I was hooked, and I haven't looked back.
Iowa is what opened my eyes and the eyes of many African Americans to the possibility, not the reality then, but the possibility.
I never tire of reliving it
Submitted on January 3rd, 2009 by Dona HickeyNow that I know how the story ended, I love re-watching speeches and moments in the campaign, small and large. I smile every time I see Obama accepting a win, state by state, and finally, the winner-take-all moment in Grant Park. The day I found The Field (at its first site), I renounced chicken-little-ism, and rarely fed the occasional fear.
One activist in VA described what happened as "millions of people pushing against a thick, brick wall." It certainly felt that way at times. I remember one courageous delegate who posted her all-night experience in Texas at Kos, and ended it with "Si se fuckin puede." The determination of so many was and is still stunning to me.
Happy New Year, Al and all you Fieldhands!
Me too
Submitted on January 3rd, 2009 by Futbol Jo (not verified)Here I am, a 62-yr old in CA; in 1968 I was a community organizer in LBJ's VISTA program in Fayettevillle, NC -- what a miserable year that initially hopeful year turned out to be! Now 40 yrs hence, when that Iowa result happened, I was snakebit and worked from then on for the O'man's campaign in the long series of primaries and then the general. Wow, what a year that started (for me) on Jan 3, 2008. Thanks for recognizing the date, Al, and for being our guide thru it all.
The work/inspiration continues so we can make sure the possibilities happen and the promises (for example, as voiced in Barack's Jan 3rd speech) are borne out.
Whew!
Too much fun
Submitted on January 3rd, 2009 by Catherine Cainreflecting back on this. I had a most fun phone conversation with my sister, a former Iowan, that night and just watching the speech again is a real thrill. Thanks for posting it Al and it was news to me to read your post from Jan 2, 2007 as I didn't catch on to your site until a month later.
It does make me wonder about this Obama guy and how prophetic he is. :) All his words seem more true today than at that time.
I can hardly wait...
Submitted on January 3rd, 2009 by Elie (not verified)for the inauguration but it is SOOOO fine to savor the steps to that day... With each primary victory, with each speech he gave overcoming an obstacle or speaking FOR us -- streaming, "channeling" our dreams for this country - he built the path but we actually gave him its substance -- brick by brick from our hearts and dreams. He made this from US... it is OURS and that is the joy. We weren't liberated -- we liberated ourselves, I believe Oh my, my. Election night in Grant Park -- looking at the faces of our brothers and sisters, white black brown young old -- peaceful, attentive, filled with pride and quiet joy...I have never, ever, felt like that on election night -- ever. My Mom -- 86 years old and fascinated - enthralled - Yes in HER lifetime, and JUST in time... Thanks so much to this country, to our people..I want to wrap my arms around us and just hug and love us in thanks and hopefulness... Thanks Al for reminding us...
I remember that night too
Submitted on January 3rd, 2009 by Janey (not verified)I was so excited. I remember the speech and love what you wrote here about it. Thanks for reminding us of what we all doing a year ago. Quite a year.
al's insight
Submitted on January 3rd, 2009 by jayman (not verified)Al-
Congrats again on being so far ahead of the "experts" with respect to the BHO victory in which so many of us are currently basking. It all started in the Midwest, which makes me proud. I was one of many who went to Iowa from my home state of MN to volunteer, but was working for Edwards unfortunately. I saw the light, a bit late, and worked for Obama elsewhere after the Edwards campaign was suspended. It was clear even then that Edwards took an all or nothing approach to Iowa and came up short. He later come up short on character, but that's another story.
On another topic, if I may, I am hopeful of a thorough Al Giordano analysis of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict and the role played by the U.S. behind the scenes of said conflict sometime soon. I would also be curious how Al sees that role changing, if at all, under the Obama administration. Pretty please! Would it help if I asked Mr. Franklin to intervene on my behalf?
Best Wishes for 2009 to all!
Still a Shock
Submitted on January 4th, 2009 by Dan CarrI was already on board, but sat up and took notice after Iowa...
Submitted on January 4th, 2009 by Norm W. (not verified)Yet it was the "Yes We Can" speech after the 'loss' in New Hampshire that really got to me. That's when I knew he would take it all.
I found The Field soon after that, and haven't missed many posts since that time. Thanks again for the insight and lessons Al and Hands, and let's look forward to working towards more victories after the temporary setbacks in the future!
Open Letter to Pres.elect Obama re: Open Primaries
Submitted on January 4th, 2009 by Gwen (not verified)What happened in Iowa should remind us all of the importance of open primaries, as they were key to penetrating the establishment politics that everyone thought would take the day. Independentvoting.org (http:/www.independentvoting.org) is sponsoring a petition/open letter to Pres.-elect Obama asking him to support a series of steps that would assure open primaries at all levels around the country.
Please read and sign the letter at http://www.gopetition.com/petitions/independentvoting.html
and pass it on!
That was a wonderful moment
Submitted on January 4th, 2009 by Jessica MeltzerWe were busy here working on NH but that moment in Iowa was inspirational and energizing. Though my husband and I never saw on the ground what the pollsters were claiming in NH in terms of a lead for Obama (we always saw Clinton ahead in the Nashua area) it gave us hope and, not that we needed it, a reminder of why we were doing what we were doing.
Thanks for that reminder again today Al!
JJ speech
Submitted on January 4th, 2009 by Nancy MickenbeckerEven before Barack decided to run, I felt certain that he would not only run, but that he would win the primary and the general election. But I think it was Barack's breakout speech at the JJ Dinner (Jefferson Jackson) in Iowa in November that really set him on the path to victory.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tydfsfSQiYc
Al, your posting of the Iowa speech has inspired me - I think I will watch one of Barack's important speeches every day between now and January 20. Would you consider highlighting one speech a day so we can all be reminded of the path we took to get here? I am happy to take that journey on my own, but it would be great to share it with others here, too.
@Dan Carr
Submitted on January 4th, 2009 by Catherine CainBrilliant! "The people without a party have won an election, simple as that."
@ Nancy
Submitted on January 4th, 2009 by Al GiordanoNancy - My plan is to highlight the speeches on the anniversary of each. Next one coming up on January 8.
Richardson withdraws as Commerce Secretary nominee
Submitted on January 4th, 2009 by Alexa (not verified)http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090104.wrichardson0...
Obama will meet with Mexico's Calderon on Monday
Submitted on January 10th, 2009 by Kristin BrickerLooks like they'll talk about the drug war and NAFTA. Will be interesting to see how the NAFTA talk goes, no?
Here's the Rueters article:
Obama to meet Mexico's Calderon on Monday
Thu Jan 8, 2009 10:12pm EST
By Caren Bohan and Tomas Sarmiento
WASHINGTON/MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Barack Obama will meet on Monday with Mexican President Felipe Calderon, marking the incoming U.S. president's first meeting with a foreign leader since he was elected in November.
The talks in Washington are likely to cover issues such as Mexico's increasingly violent drug war, Mexican migration to the United States and the NAFTA trade agreement.
http://alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N082124.htm