Where Should The Field Go to Report the Voter Registration Deadline?

I'd love you in Minnesota, but we're not exactly a swing state.

I'd say North Carolina and Virgina though, not MI and OH. A lot more voter reg going on in those states and I also think they will be closer then OH and MI.

Can't wait for the reports.

I kind of like the idea of visiting Colorado (yes, you were just there!), New Mexico, and Nevada since in your analysis (and I agree) that is where Obama will win the election if he does. I would also be interested in Virginia, but if you can visit multiple states in the same trip, that is most effective. However, Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana works too!

But I think you should come to my home-state of New Mexico, as this could be a good place to come to look at whether or not Obama's been able to improve on his Latino outreach since the primaries, even though I'd prefer you come to Albuquerque (my hometown), it would make a lot of sense to go down to the southern part of the state where the latino population is largest (and which is the most Republican part of the state) to see how Obama's been able to do with his registration effort.

There was an article in HuffPo about college students' voter registrations, that their registrations could affect their scholarships.  It seems the claims are unfounded, however, it appears some clarifications are in order.  Here is the link:

http://insidehighered.com/news/2008/09/03/voting

Virginia and North Carolina

KWiz - That Montgomery County Virginia registrar E. Randall Wertz sounds like a real creep. The disinfo he put out there is clearly intended to suppress registration among students based on falsehoods. He works for the Montgomery Board of Supervisors. Does anybody know the political party make-up of that board? They can fire him at will. And they should.

Because of the Cuban vote, because it is a swing state, because of the history of 2000, because nobody else seems to be covering it and because I'll leave Panama within a year from now and Miami is a serious option but only if Obama wins.

Bill J knows his blogger and has made a very convincing case for Virginia and North Carolina!

Elliot - It's not a long drive from Las Cruces to Albuquerque and vice versa. And I do speak Spanish. Good point.

I am definitely biased in favor of the Indiana/Michigan/Ohio battle zone. What's happening in Indiana is as surprising as it is exciting.

However, I am also very curious about Virginia and North Carolina and how those states with sizable African American populations are organizing for this historic opportunity. These two states, like the Southwest, are also on the cusp of really becoming the New (and blue) South.

And then, I am especially keen on learning about the breakdown of Florida's Cuban block.  Having someone on the ground in South Florida to dissect the generational tensions in the Cuban community, not to mention the Cuban/Dominican divide, would be illuminating.

So, my entirely selfish suggestion is a proper roadtrip: 3 days in each of these battle zones. Surely we have Fieldhands stationed in crucial sites in each area. There's certainly hospedaje and cerveza/guaro in this rinconcito in Terre Haute, IN!

Okke - My mom would like that, too. I figured she'd be the first to weigh in with that counsel. Plus, I do have to pick from which state I will cast my first official vote (not counting the "Americans Abroad" primary in February, for which one doesn't need to be registered in one of the fifty stars) in twelve years, and I have as legitimate a claim to residency there as anywhere. And, true, nobody else is going to do the on-the-ground report from the younger Cuban-American community.

So many swing states... so little time!

Early ballots can be cast in Iowa starting Sept. 25th.  Howard Dean was just in Iowa City last Friday telling students to knock 40 doors 4 times between now and the election... and most of my family have already been knocked and handed an application for absentee ballots.  Pretty impressive considering Iowa is already looking pretty good for Nov.  I'd imagine it's gonna get pretty intense in those closer contests.  AND we've gotten direct mail with absentee applications. heh.

Brendan is the first sadist to weigh in. He says do three swing regions in nine days! (FL, NC-VA and IN-OH-MI!)

That would take a budget, and extry good organizing by Field Hands on the ground to pull off. Plus - since The Field doesn't do "connecting flights" - a reasonable flight plan. From my corner of América, I can fly direct to Detroit, Chicago, Miami, Charlotte (imagine that!), Denver or DC. I also have a back door into New Mexico. But getting between those places without having to change planes, get my luggage lost by airlines and die of nicotine-withdrawl? That would be a challenge, and expensive, too!

Now that the cash is starting to flow again I was going to make a donation today (a late donation for Denver), but I see that Jed may need some and now this proposed trip.

Al, your thoughts?

(Manly)BondiBeachViews

Hi,

Virginia and Colorado seem interesting to me because a non-traditional batleground would be fun. But I understand the argument for the Ohio registration push.

I know that I am not supposed to be doing this, but I have been feeling anxious. Anyone out there willing to give me some inoculating words. Planning to phone bank this week which should help...

Virginia,

It's the population in VA that has changed so much, not MI or OH. NoVA will be huge for Obama and there are a lot of volunteers there.

Of the big 3 (OH, CO and VA) it will be the hardest to flip...

The candidates can't seem to stay away from Michigan, so why should you!

waterprise2 would probably agree that you should join us here, and thankfully our legislature moves slowly enough that it hasn't done anything crazy like banning smoking in restaurants and bars.

Every intelligent analysis I read puts the Michigan ground game as the number 1 or 2 most important thing to securing the election; getting an honest assessment of that ground game in its final stages seems like a smart choice to me.

Pamela, I'm sure, would be able to hook you up with campaign connections in Detroit and show you around, and I can definitely provide information about the Lansing/East Lansing area, and maybe even a couple other locations. I'll be spending as much time as possible on the ground until Nov 4, so if you were to arrive in Michigan at the end of this month, I could make it a priority to gather intel.

Some fresh insider info to prove my street cred: Kal Penn (of Harold and Kumar) will be here Wednesday for a voter registration/bar crawl, and Drew Barrymore will be making a surprise appearance Saturday for a rally and for knocking on doors.

Also, should you come to Michigan, I'd be more than happy to assist with whatever - feel free to email me if Michigan is one of your choices.

Isn't it amazing that we have to work at all to win this election, given the horror show of the past eight years, and the weakness of the McCain/Palin ticket?   This oughta be a no-brainer, but it isn't.  Why?  Is the corrupt and biased corporate media the problem, or is the electorate ill-informed and beyond salvation?

The latest poll doesn't bother me, but the stories about purging voter rolls in swing states does.  Happens in every election, it seems.  How is it countered any differently this time?

Dona - First, a lot of those reports have not been adequately documented.

Second, I think it's a dangerous game to tell people their votes don't count: some of that is being pushed by the trolls to try and foment panic.

Third, in every state, there is a well organized strategy to counter-act it.

My friend Greg Palast has been pushing those buttons a lot, and people have been copying his stuff, but there's an easy solution: re-register them. There's still time. The focus should be on that and not on the adversities.

i humbly suggest a colorado, nevada, new mexico trip.  the southwest seems to be the future of the democratic majority, and each of those states have very interesting on-the-ground dynamics that would be fun to report and hear about.

virginia would be interesting too, but hitting the southwest would be three for the price of one, eh? 

I  think there is going to be some really interesting stories on the ground in Ohio during early voting.  I am hoping that there will be some amazing turnout (and it is not going to be covered by the traditional media).

And Obama is putting a ton of resources into Indiana. They must see something in their internal polling. It could turn out to be the surprise of the election.  My hope is that Obama makes Indiana close, so it can't be called first on election night.

a RNC pressure tactic ? His seemed to be a lonely liberal voice and that has been shut off too. I agree with basil on both counts - corrupt corporate media and low-info voters.

amk

I know other important 'swing states' may be closer in the polling than NM and may merit more active attention, but this is a great staaging area (for Colorado and Nevada) to try and drum up some activity and enthusiasm (as well as reinforce what is already simmering in the progressive community).

The fact that you have a whole clutch of friends here is another good reason.

PS

Al,

In regards to my friends comment just so you are clear; no you do not know me but you do know my mom, dad, sister, and uncle . . .  yes, I am one of those Cleavers.  Hope to see you in NM.

Well, Al, I naturally would expect that you come to Florida, where the election was literally stolen in 2000.

What does Florida represent in the context of this national election cycle?  Many things: it is amorphous, ethnically diverse, and has some strange demographics.

The Latino community is broad, and it is becoming more important and better defined with every election.   The population of the state could double in the next twenty years.

Labor repression and exploitation is fierce here.

The corporate and public (NPR) media in the state is abysmal, and skews very heavy to the far right--however we have at least one community radio station in Tampa as is pretty decent.

The Rep/Dem political class are rightwing and center-rightwing, respectively.   In my city of Orlando even the head of the NAACP switched to the Republican party (go along to get along--the guy was associated with the construction industry here).

Ecologically the state is a basket-case, and the pillage continues.

Lastly, if you came here you would see both the promise and the limitations of Obama's ground operation here.  Your fluency in Spanish would enable you to gain insight into the ideology that stands astride the Cuban community in Miami.

The polling here I think skews toward McCain more than it does in reality--given the fact that cell phones are not adequately accounted for in traditional sampling of the big guns.

These are some of my best arguments.  I don't think that Florida is a lost cause.  But at the same time, the crucial states like Indiana, Ohio, Michigan; and, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado--these might be better areas of interest as far as a discernable blue-trend is concerned.

As I said, Florida is pretty damned amporphous and hard to put one's finger on.

I immediately broke Al's rule of *no caps* to emphasize Michigan!  "My" Jason, one of the 1st to join the Metro Motown Fieldhands, hit the nail on the head! I feel like a *proud momma* watching Jason do Fieldhand work in Lansing and @ Michigan State!

The O-man is here again today, his 3rd visit in 2 weeks.  The dirty Rethugs have already started a commercial trying to link Obama with former mayor (and now convicted felon) Kwame Kilpatrick...showing Obama praising Kilpatrick back in the days when praise was warranted (like 9 months ago)...

Yes, Al, I can "hook you up" here in Detroit and environs, even "pick you up" from the Airport!

Wish I could house you too, but with my Dad incapacitated at their house, and my daughter back from Phoenix because of her own health problems at my house, it would be kinda difficult.

But if you would like, I could sure find you some housing by asking around...especially the blues/jazz musician friends of my hubby the blues/fusion/jazz musician...o-o-o-o, fun!

Yes, I'm pretty tuned into the politicial bigwigs and littlewigs around here; through my Pastor, the president of the NAACP--you know, you all saw him introduce Rev. Wright at the NAACP dinner last April; my husband's connections, and my connections.

You know how much we have to keep Michigan Blue...and we're only 45 minutes from Ohio!

I'm looking at my schedule RIGHT NOW to move things around!

Michigan, Go Blue!

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

Is there a site where you can get in tabulated form registration dates and information on polling place requirements and id requirements and such?

Nevada would be interesting too. Or perhaps a long shot like Indiana or North Carolina?

Al,

Michigan-Ohio-Indiana represents 48 electoral votes. Is there any question where you should go?

==================

On the Palin issue: is she ready to negotiate with Putin on Feb 1, 2009? That's the critical question. If McCain wins, I will be leaving the country. No fight left in me. Stupid to try. I will probably be somewhere in Latin America. (I love to tango, and I'm good at that wrap my leg around your leg shit.) If Americans are stupid enough to re-elect Bush Lite/Heavy/Whatever, my hands go up and I will leave the country to the collective stupidity. Besides, the real global economic action is occurring between Dubai and Singapore. The US is a decade away from oblivion if it doesn't change course dramatically. But this is my last fight.

Hi Al,

Sounds like a great road trip for you wherever you end up.  Glad to see your comments about the voter rolls being purged - I'm just aghast like others here that this race is even close. 

I couldn't find where you clarify what the numbers on each of the states means but then it's early morning so that will be my excuse.  I'm assuming it means how many days left to register in those states as of today?

Come to Michigan, and come to Kalamazoo.  Kalamazoo is one of the nation's big swing districts, and it has a demographics that mirrors those of the rest of the state.  They are doing big voter registration here and getting people from Chicago involved.  I've got the cell of the local field organizer if you want it, and I plan to be back there.

Virginia is in play. If he wins Virginia and Colorado he wins the White House. Three Virginians were on the VP short list. Virginia is home to his base: educated whites and blacks. However it is also home to parts of Appalacia.

Obama 41 offices statewide.

Al - I may be biased (as a former resident) but I think Virginia is the story of this election.  A red state that even voted for Bob Dole when everyone else was voting for Clinton.  I've seen the grassroots on the ground who got themselves organized in Dec 2006 to get a petition together to get Obama on the ballot for the primary.  No campaign staff arrived in Virginia until one week before the Virginia Primary (because it was a week after Super Tuesday and before Super Tuesday we thought Virginia was not going to matter).  But when they got there the grassroots already had a huge database for them to work from, and we ended delivering a 30 point win for Obama with 973,931 voter turnout compared with 395,903 for 2004.  The Virginia campaign has been holding registration drives every single weekend since May, plus nightly phonebanks.  Right now, there are 235,976 more registered voters in Virginia than 2004.  Bush beat Kerry in 2004 by 262,000.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/17/AR200808...

Plus, if pollster.com safe and leaning states do stay blue, Virginia's 15 EVs will put Obama over the top in ET.

In addition, you could drive to Florida and pass through the important states of North Carolina and Georgia on the way.

Something else I would be interested in - if we could have a plant in the RNC's efforts in Virginia - I would like to see what they're up to.  And another thing I'd like to hear about is the "military" vote in VA - it's assumed this is Republican but I have my doubts about that.

KD

of each state.

amk

Catherine - By "numbers on the map" I mean the numbers of newly registered voters - and specifically, where available, how many of them are Democrats, Independents or Republicans.

For example, in Heather's post below yours she notes that the Obama campaign had set a goal of registering 150,000 new voters in Virginia and and claims that in the first three months of that drive it registered 113,500. That means it has the month of September to meet or exceed its goal of another 36,500 more to create a bump of 1.75 percent in the Virginia vote totals. What we'll know at the deadline (or when the secretary of the commonwealth or municipalities release the info) is whether those goals were met there and in other states.

Because many of these new voters are young and/or economically poor, many pollsters aren't picking them up on their radar either because they're "cell phone only" or traveling or using a parent's address while living elsewhere.

I also highly suspect that the overseas military vote is going to be mainly for Obama given the demographics of who becomes a soldier in this day and age and general skepticism among those that know best about the war. Their absentee ballots will be counted in their home states, but I'm not yet sure how to measure that in advance other than to talk to some town and city clerks that might be willing to share the info available only to them.

Just wanted to mention that there are some states with same day voter registration, including Maine, Wisconsin and Minnesota. (There may be some others.) So in those places, the hunt should still be on for early voters and for making sure people know what they need if they are going to register at the polls.

Meanwhile, in Maine:

The numbers from the Secretary of State’s Office indicate that for every two new Democrats since November 2006, the GOP was losing an enrolled voter. There were 309,525 registered Democrats in Maine and by June 2008, that had increased to 319,690 registered Democrats. Over the same time, registered Republicans decreased from 279,641 to 273,686.

The largest block of potential voters, the independent or unenrolled, also increased, going from 375,235 to 379,024. The Green Independent Party members dipped slightly, from 29,347 in 2006 to 29,160 in June of this year. http://bangornews.com/detail/50325.html

I think that if you use Chicago area as a base, you can get to all 3 states (and WI) quite easily. This could give some understanding  to the regional work and the numbers.

I also think that we should fundraise for this. An online fundraiser plus a land-based event or an event in each state. And, if it's in the Chgo area, I am more than willing to help organize.

will be very interesting and gets my vote. it's a big and extremely diverse state. there are definite pockets of blue, like my hometown of charlottesville, inside large swaths of red, and those pockets are continuing to expand. as a bonus, there are some interesting congressional races happening too. 

In addition to my "Tobacco Friendly" post (blatant and shameless attempt to shortcut Al's decision making process), I heartily agree with above posts on Virginia.  Virginia is poised for an historic switch to Blue in November (LBJ was the last time it went Blue).

Here in Northern VA, the Obama campaign has been visibly active all summer registering voters.  Kerry never contested the state, even though Zobgy polling showed it to be a close race down to the end.

In my district, long time incumbent Frank Wolf is suddenly in a fight for once.  Tom Davis is retiring his post in the next district, and refused to take on Warner for the Senate. 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/06/AR2008090602707.html

Things are going to be exciting here...

Al probably assumed I couldn't possibly be that dull this morning. 

The absurd montage of pinochle, Cuban sandwhiches, right wing terrorists and hanging chads make the fertile terrain of reportage fit to be reported on only by a comedian.  I say Al, go to the midwest and cover Michigan, Ohio, and possibly Indiana...and let's raise money to send Katie to Florida where she can ride us all through a golf cart ride of insightful humor.

Al- I think you need to be unleashed all over the blogosphere to admonish everyone about their chicken littling. Me, Anushka, the former empress of chicken littles am just not worried as I was during the primaries. I think O will do well. The polls will go up and own and like Al said this is not going to be easy. But, with solid effort on our part and Obama's  I think we'll do just fine. Everyone has all kinds of advice for Obama- dont they think the Obama campaign knows?

Al-I think your plan is the best...I'd love to see Ohio do the right thing this time since it's often left up to them. Also I think getting your feet into Michigan will be interesting...(My in-laws are there and still think Barack is a muslim, refuse to use a computer, and never even vote).  I'd love to hear your reports from out of there...

I knocked on doors yesterday for Obama in the Northern Virginia suburb of Herndon on two residential streets.  People there told me that I was the third person to contact them on behalf of Obama and they had yet to see a McCain campaign outreach effort.  If Obama is going to win VA and the election in November, this is how it will happen.   

MN-IA-MO-KS:  Road trip up/down I-35!  KS where Barack's grandparents and mom are from, MO because McCaskill has worked her tail off, IA where we got the ball rolling and MN, well, because you'd rather visit there now instead of the dead of winter!  ha  Plus, the midwest is always "interesting" or "curious" to people especially this election (read: white people voting for a black man!).

What happens in these two states will tell a lot about how the election will turn out.

Mikell Hagood

amk

As much as I would *love* to have a beer with Al in Wisco, I really think that Wisconsin isn't a "swing" state this time around.  It should be safely Purple (I think I'm calling Obama states Purple, McCain state Red, due to my hoped-for working majority in an Obama map-changer).

The Ohio early voting - and quadrennial shenanigans - would give a real good case for on-the-ground reporting, as well as proximity to the newly organized Michigan (no primary presence requires catch-up) and the dark horse Indiana.

Plus, I want Al to go to Pennsyltucky and find out some information on the ground, rather than from polling and census data.  I want to know if it's as bad for Obama as we've been told to believe.

That said, my favorite way to wind-down after GOTV work and to kill the 11p-2a hours on election nights is to watch returns from Richmond and St. Louis (and likely Research Triangle, Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte, maybe Gary, Cleveland, Columbis, and Cincinnati proper this November).  A VA-NC(-SC/GA) swing would be very interesting.

Yes Virginia is tobacco country (as a recent NYC transplant, I've had a bit of culture shock in the restaurants), LOL.  The potential for the state to flip makes a genuinely fascinating story line, especially with the success of Tim Kaine and Mark Warner.  Additionally, there is a cultural diversity in the area that is quite interesting.  So Virginia would definitely be a good choice.

However, I think the voter issues and economic issues of MI and OH make those two states even more fertile ground for election examination.  There is a new democratic SOS in Ohio -- has she been successful in cleaning up the abominable election practices there?  Michigan has been decimated in a Republican economy -- will they get out and vote against 4-8 more years of the same?

My second choice, behind the MI-OH option, would be the Western swing:  NV-CO-NM, as these are emerging Democratic hotspots (although I think NM is pretty safe for Obama).

Wherever you go, I look forward to reading.

Al going on some bizarro "See all of Europe in 10 days!" style trip.  :-)  Is my sadist showing?  But, if I have to pick, I vote for MI/OH/IN. 

*  Firewall/Old Swing State/New Swing State. 

*  Two states where Obama camp was able to build for important primaries [OH earlier and IN later] versus nothing in crazy MI. 

*  The added fun of seeing if Crew Clinton/DLC in all 3 are still under orders leading to my Senator [HRC] running again in 2012. 

*  I think that week of 9/30 - 10/6 of One-Stop-Shopping [register and early vote all at once] in OH could be very indicative of the campaign's ability to turn it out on both national campaign and grassroots levels. 

*  Being able to see if Obama was able to make any inroads in Appalachia. 

*  Cherry on top - smoke at will!

We must hold Michigan to win the Whitehouse. If we can sure up Michigan with new registrations, it makes it very difficult for McCain to win.

Early voter registration in North Carolina ends on Oct 10th. However, you can still register and vote at the same time during the One Stop Voting period, from Oct 16 - Nov 1st. I'm not completely clear on if you can do registration changes during One Stop voting, but I'll find out tonite.

Note - 88.5% of registered voters in the US voted in the 2004 Presidential election, according to the US Census Bureau. This number has been steadily rising from the low 80's in 1996. So the best GOTV effort you can do is to register new voters. Once signed up, they'll vote. And being as new Dem + Independent voter registrations here in NC are literally outpacing new Republicans 15:1, the odds of that vote being an Obama vote are way in our favor.

Too early to talk about the Mass Exodus!!! More people than I can count have called morose and defeatist within the last few days. I guess I thought Novemember 4th hadn't even happened yet---. Stop clogging up the Canadian Immigration Site and let's get to work. Let's give it A FIGHT.

I'm busy registering voters and doing canvassing in Ann Arbor, MI where we have a great field organization. Also check out what they're doing in Rome, Italy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvnzzu5JTy4

If, as Al says, the issue is registration, then Ohio is the place to be.

Geographically, it allows peeks at Michigan, Indiana, and Pennsylvania without burning much gasoline. Virginia is not even that far away.

Ohio has past registration issues (see 2004). Ohio has the immediate registration vote window (9/30-10/6) that will show how well the ground game is working a month before most of the nation votes.

Florida, it seems to me, is more of a GOTV problem best addressed closer to election day. 

How about the battleground state of Virginia, where voter suppression continues to be an ongoing issue.

http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2008/09/03/voting

...it will land in Michigan.

No primary, no spring excitment etc. Obama knows this. May have been a tactical error at the time - choosing short-term over long-term - but that's all water over the dam. Michigan is the firewall. It must be won.

Just adding to my initial thoughts to say I agree with the previous post about registration -- it's gotta be Ohio.  Al, you could give us an early look at the process, and if assistance is needed in Ohio, this could serve as a place to mobilize. 

We will see just how helpful the Democratic governor, Ted Strickland, truly is.  We will see how this is playing out in the urban areas (including the district of the recently departed Stephanie Tubbs-Jones, may she R.I.P.).  I would expect to see the Clintons on the ground at some point -- can they help repair some of the damage done during the primary?  How did the fiercely fought primary impact registration and organization? 

The possibilities are endless >:-)........

 Come to NV. Smoker friendly and good entertainment. I 'll buy you a beer. I might even have a place for you to stay.

Unbiased choice-MI-IN

Al, partly for the selfish reason of getting you in my part of the US where I could help coordinate and be a Fieldhand on the ground, I vote for NV, CO, NM. 

I'm part of the CA contingent that has adopted NV as my second home through Election Day, and the campaign has some great strategies that I won't discuss here to protect them from Republican eyes, but that I think are especially likely to produce great results.

You can see what's happening on the ground in Las Vegas and Reno (do casinos hold any appeal for you beyond your ability to smoke with abandon therein?).  I would want you in Reno 10/4-5 to watch the Northern CA team at work.

Another interesting time to visit NV is later in the month 10/18, when their early voting window opens, as we have aggressive goals to get those ballots returned before election day.

The Denver Posse could show you how the ground game is playing out there, and you have several votes for NM above.

If I can't have my wish, then I would vote for PA/OH/MI because I want someone I trust on the ground there to tell me what Chris Mathew's tribe of hard-working white guys are really doing.

 Great minds think alike :-)

I think we need to put together a coordinated campaign in Colorado to contact voters put on the inactive rolls and get their status changed.  The inactive rules in Colorado are largely discriminatory against young and minority voters who tend to be transient (and democratic).

In my County, Jefferson, the largest county in Colorado, voter registration cards were sent out to every registered voter prior to the primary last month.  They were marked "DO NOT FORWARD, ADDRESS CORRECTION REQUESTED"

So, anyone who was having their mail forwarded did not get their voter registration card, and they were put on the inactive rolls.

Through a quick check of a dozen of my closest friends and family , I became aware that two of them, both diehard Obama supporters, had been moved to the inactive rolls.

I posted this yesterday with the full details to Kos and Square State:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/7/142737/0541/280/569250

as usual. Ohio with MI and IN. Obama can win without OH but McCAin can't. I like our chances in OH.

Hey Al,

Need another post from you to reassure the chicken littles after today's Gallup poll( ick!)

I've been telling all my friends to expect a McCain lead this week but even so, the 10 pt. lead was a little shocking. Nate Silver over at 538 had a nice insight into "Shy Tory's" namely the Republicans who were too embarassed to state their preference for McCain before but are now energized to pick up the phone when a pollster calls.

This is actually good news for the Obama campaign. They get to see the real support for McCain instead of a rude shock on election day. With all the state polls coming out this week, the campaign also gets an accurate picture of problem areas it needs to target. In a way, the appointment of Sarah Palin has tipped the Republicans' hands in terms of the facts on the ground.( Though I do concede she has closed the enthusiasm gap considerably)

It also fires up support from the base and volunteers. I myself am going to start making calls today.

But do put out one of your calm posts. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to need it today.

My vote is OH, MI, IN, as I agree with Tom that they probably are in the need of the most help. Selfishly, I can be of a little assistance there, as I can find floors to crash on in NW Indiana, S Indiana (although that's probably as passover), and Bloomington, IN. Ohio, I could find places near Cinci. Nothing in MI. I could probably make it to any of those states, and can maybe bring some others.

I agree 100% with Jay in SE WI. I think that it will be close, but we'll get it done in WI. Although, word from the campaign is that the Repubs are energized with Palin and her selection made it "officially a race". But here, I really do think it's ours to lose.

OH -- also, FWIW this post surely is in the 2008 election hall of fame... brilliant synthesis of ideas.

Vidya - Sometimes they squawk because they want attention. I'm keeping the focus on what matters: voter registration - and not on them (I've grown not just to feel pity for them but to intensely hate them for their gross stupidity and wanting to give them cement shoes, but, ah, I digress...).

At this late date, anybody that's not inoculated should be quarantined in the "ignore" and "delete" files.

You know how you tell the difference between George Bush and Sarah Palin?

Lipstick.

Here's Chuck Todd's post today on post-convention electoral numbers - he's saying NC is getting close to becoming a toss-up  - that would be a huge story:

After the conventions and the candidates’ VP picks, Obama still maintains a slight electoral lead, according to NBC’s map. Obama has 228 electoral votes to McCain’s 200, with 110 electoral votes in the toss-up column. The changes from last month, when Obama held a 217-189 advantage: Missouri moves from toss-up to Lean McCain, Pennsylvania moves from toss-up to Lean Obama, and Wisconsin moves from Lean Obama to toss-up. We came VERY close to moving North Carolina to toss-up, but until we see one decent poll showing Obama ahead, we're not there yet. Every North Carolina poll has had McCain ahead, though it is worth noting the RNC and the campaign are finally up in the Tar Heel state with paid media.

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, PA (38 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, VA, WI (110 votes)
Lean McCain: AK, GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, ND, SD (64 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (136 votes)

why is Wisconsin now a toss up? are there new numbers out there making this a toss up? This makes no sense to me at all. anyone?

Chicken Littling will be rampant with the new polls.  Everyone get out there and provide pushback - the best answer?  "You're so worried?  VOLUNTEER."

Unlike Christine and Allan, as a Californian I *don't* vote for NV. We Californians working on the campaign should know what's going on there; we don't need another reporter covering it. (Disclaimer: Getting ready to do some NV-based work, but am focusing closer to home, in my district, to help Russ Warner unseat David (bush rubber stamp) Dreier.)  

So That upper midwest state cluster or the south-eastern seaboard scenario looks more intriguing to me because, like Hawaii (heh), they're more foreign and exotic to this not-a-small-town Californian. Hell, based on the NPR the beltway is the middle of the earth, I vote for Virginia to see how the exotic and foreign-like people do their politickin' there. Okay, that's snark. But my point is I'd like coverage from a place that is not where I am, much as I'm sympathetic to the F2F aspect.

Re: chicken little inoculations, and speaking of exotic Hawaii, was IMing with a Hawaii-based friend/colleague yesterday. Friend spends lotsa time on DU, and shows symptoms of chicken little epidemic. I told her that the people there need to be told to make phone calls and give money when they whine. Don't know if friend will pass that on, tho.

But to Anushka, who suggested that Al go elsewhere and shore them up, why not you? What prevents you from urging people to pay up or make phone calls whenever they make a doubting comment? Any of us can do that in comments. Heck, if we ALL did that in the various threads we visit, we'll help. It's not too late to start a secondary meme to the "chicken little" meme (which terms has indeed spread to DKos). 

So: See chicken littling in comments in the blogosphere? Ask commenter to make more phone calls or donate more money to the campaign. And ask other commenters for matching "donations."

GMTA.

Lots of C-L'ing going on about polls. The USA Today/ Gallup is crap, especially their likely voter screen which has Rs at 40% and Ds at 28% of sample. That's how they came up with the 10 pt lead for McCain. The R convention boost doesn't look that formidable based on Rasmussen, Hotline, and CNN/Opinion, which are all basically at a tie nationally. None of them that I can see take into account the voter registration drive going on by the Obama campaign and the enlarged D electorate.

Let's sharpen it and make it exactly parallel to Pork Queen Sarah's statement.

What's the difference between Sarah Palin and George Bush?

Lipstick.

 

I'm giving my vote for Al to cover the MI-OH-IN trio.  One blue state that needs to be shored up, one purple state that can be won with , and one red state that might surprise us all.  And it would give us a direct look at what the heck is really going on in Appalachia (at least, part of Appalachia).  The West would be my second choice, but NV, CO, and NM is a huge area to cover -- why, the only way you can even get around those states is by private jet!

Oregonians can register up to Oct. 14. The following week ballots will be sent out so people will begin voting the week of Oct. 20 by mail. All voting in Oregon is by mail.

More info

We'll get the most electoral impact there. Don't forget about food security and agriculture policy - there's a strong agrarian tradition in the Midwest that must want some change too. Having won Iowa's caucus and leading in the state now more than Gore or Kerry ever did, Obama's message must resonate well there. Although there's a pitfall with the stupid "arugula" label, people are feeling food insecurity which crosses party lines and could be a key unifying factor in this election.

Read anything by Wendell Berry or Gene Logsdon's The Contrary Farmer for a great Ohioan's take on pastoral economics and agricultural patriotism.

I'm in NE Alabama and will be registering folks in Rome and Cedartown GA. Any fieldhands nearby? Georgia is a longshot, but I love a challenge. Kerry lost GA by 550K votes (to W's 1.8M), and 300,000 new voters registered before the primary this year. There are more than 6 million folks of voting age in the Peach State...

Identity politics: So I was thinking about Sarah "do I believe in dinosaurs" Palin and trying to channel my inner redneck's opinion of her. Yeah, there's the hunting and bible beating, but she doesn't seem Southern to me at all. The hockey and the accent and putting one's family through this mess don't push my buttons even if I was naive enough to vote for McCain (who despite his family's Mississippi roots, doesn't seem Southern either). We know a Texan when we see one, and despite having coopted country music, this GOP ticket is not one of us.

On a different note, did the Alaskan Queen just employ everyone who feels responsible in their community to take her and her Admiral down? I think so - let's get to work.

The reason the election is so close is because Democrats won't fall in line.  This is really getting pathetic.

I like it too, but I think it should be a comparison between Palin and Cheney.  The Republicans are desperately trying to put the focus on Palin and not McCain. We want to remind people that Palin is the VP nominee. Since Palin already thinks that she doesn't have to be accountable to the press, and is hiding out to avoid them, the comparison is not a stretch.

With the notorious problems in OH, and the importance of MI and Obama's delayed start there, your expertise would really provide some interesting reports from these two places.

On the chicken little sidenote:

One of better booster shots in the last week for me has become watching the latest Joe Biden clip.  He's been just perfect on the stump and really inspires a lot of confidence.  Here's the latest with Biden talking in Montana:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/obamaroadblog/gG5phB

I know it's not an Apocalyptic 8, and I'm not sure about the registration deadlines and early voting, but how cool would it be to wander around poor Mississippi neighborhoods this time around? The state is 37% black, but had only a 56% turnout in the 2004 election. It's full of old rural black communities where families have lived since sharecropping, Jim Crow, and the civil rights era.

90%+ of the vote of 37% of the population when only 56% turns out to vote? You might need a handful of white people to come along, but you can get them. MS is one of the youngest states in the country.

It's also poorest and basically the least educated. It's a state that just keeps voting on cultural lines instead of its own self interest. 40% of the state is white evangelical.

The AA community is a sleeping giant in electoral politics in Miss. This may not be the year for the state to actually vote for a Democrat in presidential politics, but it's a year for it to come closer than anyone's expecting. The state voted for Shirley Chisholm and Jesse Jackson in primaries, but was also one of the few states to vote for Strom Thurmond and Wallace in the 1948 and 1968 general elections and the only state to vote for the Byrd/Thurmond ticket in 1960.

Poblano has the stats: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/road-to-270-mississippi.html

I grew up in Louisiana (among other places) where we proudly lorded our 49th in the nation in everything status over Mississippi's 50th. I haven't been back to the area in a very long time, but I suspect there's this thing called hope infusing the political process.

Al's uniquely qualified to investigate the generational shift in Cuban Americans in Florida or watch the tides turn in Colorado due to Latinos and independents (I might vote against New Mexico as the positive signs coming out of there might make us all too optimistic). But I think watching this piece of history happen through Al's eyes in the deepest oldest Blues-infused South would be a joy even if the state doesn't quite turn all the way blue on election day.

I'd love to get a Michigander's perspective on this, but as an outsider who has somewhat followed the Kwame Kilpatrick debacle, I can't help but think that his recent removal from the scene makes things slightly easier than it otherwise would have been for Obama there.  Kwame has dragged Detroit through the gutter, and perhaps was too much of a third rail for Obama to spend much time there earlier in the primary season.  With him off the scene now, hopefully a more capable leadership familiar with the ins and outs of the Detroit electorate can help organize from the city outward.  Just speculating.

Last thing I did before I went to bed was tune into Imus who supports/ed McCain, and said repeatedly while he was on MSNBC that he would stick with McCain out of loyalty.

Imus is available for me via wabcradio.com; large swaths of the country get him on satellite teevee or RFDTV. [This is Rural TV.]

He had someone on who supported McCain and thought he was impressing Imus with his rough and tumble. The guy was repeating the Obama smears and Imus knocked down every one, even under his breath. Every one. Didn't let the guy get away with one false statement, then quietly said, "Enough of this," and cut him off with music. Imus is a bellwether for me. He has six million loyal supporters deep into the middle of the country. His RFDTV show is on from 6-9 AM, and the RFDHD-TV version of the show repeats from 6-9 PM.

I was hoping to hear what he thought about Palin, but didn't have time to listen to the whole thing. Going to have to tune in or figure out some way of recording it.

====================

Anyone catching Palin's "And then I raised the dead" speech in Missouri? She makes it sound as if she eliminated property taxes for all of Alaska instead of a town of 7,000, a tax that was one-half percent (.005%).

 I was just contacted by NV Obama staff and asked to be Office Manager in one of the LV offices since I did that job in PA primary and have 5 weeks to give up. Very excited, leaving in a few days. Fieldhands volunteering in NV, please join the NV group. It's a good way to stay connected and get a sense of how we are doing in one of the 'Apocalyptic 8' states.

I disagree.  The supporters of Edwards, Richardson, almost all of Clintons, etc. have lined up behind Obama.  Any holdouts are certainly much fewer than Repub holdouts who staged a counter-convention in St. Paul which nearly equalled the size of the RNC convention, or voting for Bob Barr.  Many Ron Paul supporters (these are Repubs for the most part) are supporting Obama now or not voting for McInsane at least, and many even did an online fundraiser recently in conjunction with many Liberal blogs.  A Ron Paul supporter and Iraq vet disrupted McInsane's speech at the convention.  You don't see these facts in BigMedia coverage.

No, it's the Conglomerate-owned media outlets that drive public discourse that is causing the race to be close.  It's breathtaking how in the tank they are for the Repubs, and it's been this way for decades now.  They're still flogging the Hillary-to-McInsane voters and have basically ignored the Paul switchovers, which far outnumber any PUMAs.  They've been able to change the fact that the Repub VP candidate's 17 year old unwed daughter is pregnant into a positive.  I have not seen one on-air yakker raise the question about Failin's support for abstinence only education in this context on a Conglomerate outlet, which seems quite fair to me.  Imagine if Obama or Kerry had this situation in the middle of their campaigns and think about this would be portrayed.  It would've ended their chances immediately, no matter how skillfully they responded.

Fortunately, all indications have shown that Obama has understood this dynamic from the beginning, and the emphasis on ground game is a great way to overcome this.  In our current Conglomerate controlled media environment, a Liberal is damned if they do, damned if they don't.  We need to figure out other ways around this, and this is precisely what Team Obama has been doing.  We also need to be getting everyone we know to check out places like The Field if we ever hope to restore our Constitution and end the insanity for future elections.  Marginalizing Conglomerate Media is a necessity.   

I'm still trying to figure out if I can make that big a commitment to NV, but I will be there several times between now and through Election Day.  I will also join the NV Fieldhands group as my trip approaches, and perhaps we can communicate more in-depth over there.

And Al, perhaps Christi and I and other CA/NV Fieldhands on the ground there can report on NV so that you can go elsewhere?

We are the bloggers we have been waiting for!

Yesterday I was overcome with chicken littlelism but seeing that most polls show a tie gives me comfort that McCain has not really taken the lead but I do believe that Obama needs to be on the offense rather than on the defense.

Hey Al,

Based on your analysis, it sounds like Michigan is crucial, but wherever you decide to go you know we'll be following your reports!

In fact, I hope you're servers will be okay on November 4th.  If they were overworked during McCain's speech I can only imagine what it will be like on election day.

Currently, planning October 4th/5th trip to PA with friends to register voters (with 'Obama-PA').  Will let you know how it goes afterward.  Really appreciate reading comments here about canvassing experiences.  I have not gone door to door before so all everyone's insight and encouragement is enlightening.

Had dinner last night with my Mexican and Mex-American friends; the husband is like a brother to me. She's Mexican, he was born in TX, the grandson of a Mexican Indian chief. They were Republican in 2000, half and half in 2004, and huge Clinton supporters in the primary. I changed him to Obama. Couldn't budge her; she's fierce. We were still duking it out after June 3 with her promising to vote for McCain.

The house was full of their Latino friends and, natch, tons of kids. The subject of Palin came up and my friend launched into a half English, half Spanish tirade that electrified the room. The fact that Palin supports no abortion even in the event of rape had sent her over the edge. Game changer? (Her daughters are 11 and 13.) "Someone rapes XXX, and she says XXX can't have an abortion? She can't even control her own kids!"

Some of the real Catholics in the room expressed their concern about abortion, but my friend said, "Someone rapes XXX and my daughter has to pay for that guy's dick for the rest of her life? She pays double? No fucking way!" And the fathers looked at their gorgeous innocent pre-pubescent daughters and you could see the steel in their hooded eyes. Palin may be getting some rah-rah in NM, but consigning Latina daughters to pregnancy hell through no fault of their own is not going to pass muster. And these women last night understood that Palin could be Prez through attrition.

Quarantine time for the Chicken Littles?

Rec it up and get in there and answer the squawkers who are mad because they recognize themselves as his targets!

Palin Makes Her First Gaffe

@Alexa - interesting tidbit about Imus.  I used to watch him in the morning on MSNBC when I was getting ready for work and thought it was overall a good show as he generally had intelligent people on there.  He was one of the original media people adoring John McCain from 2000 and still hasn't changed his mind.  Does the rural population really listen to him?  I would think he would just attract the East Coast and urban radio audience.  It's too bad we don't have the equivalent of a Rush on the radio.  Just making up shit left and right and bloviating to our complete embarrassment (but happiness). 

Christi D. and Allan B. - Yea!! Love the Nevada News!!

OT - Is it just insulting beyond belief that we have to seriously consider Sarah Palin as a VP opponent?!  OF COURSE she doesn't know crap about Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and sorry - Economics 101 in 57 days won't cut it. 

I really liked this article by Jamie Lee Curtis and it would be great to see the Obama campaign incorporate some of Jamie's points into an anti-Palin commercial so that the low information voter can "relate".  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jamie-lee-curtis/debate-not-relate_b_123491.html

Great DKos post.

Quarantine time for the Chicken Littles?

Al,

This is my first time participating in politics so I will not even presume to tell you where to go. But, I'm pounding the pavement in IN (with fellow Field Hand Brendan) when I can. If you come to Terre Haute, you'll find us to be a hospitable bunch!

siddhartha

Catherine, Imus reaches deep into Ohio, Oklahoma, Kansas, NM, etc with RFDTV. Before Tim Russert died, he was back on Imus’ show several times this year even though originally the deal was that no one from NBC could go on the show. There is a Black Studies teacher from SUNY, whose name escapes me at the moment, who initially went on the show to take Imus on. The discussion was fascinating and frank, and she has become a regular contributor. Wonderful and peppery. I download the podcasts whenever I see them.

Imus has enormous reach and it’s under the radar. His calling Dick Cheney a war criminal relentlessly starting in January 2006 and sneering at the Bush admin since 2004 contributed heavily to a lot of older white Repubs laying down the jingo jive, and breathing some fresh air.

He raised $50 million on his show for that state-of-the-art hospital for wounded vets and their families in TX in response to the govt’s lousy maintenance of Walter Reed. People dont overlook that effort easily.

Say what you will about Imus, but he has enormous reach and he reaches a group of republicans that are waaay more educated than Limbaugh’s group. Even though he is a McCain supporter, he has said repeatedly, "I would not be unhappy with an Obama administration." I can't imagine that his intelligent wife, Deirdre, is a clapping seal for Palin.

MI

O 47  M 46

This is a weekend poll so purely post convention.  That seems decent, no?  If this includes the McCain bump we've seen nationwide, it should be a decent starting point.

Please post link - thanks!

Alexa -

I read that story about Palin's gaffe. Unfortunately, since its about economic policy, the cable outlets won't touch it. Substantive issues bore them.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Michigan_908.pdf

Edited and replaced with correct link from today's release.

Olivia - I am one of those that thought they couldn't do it.  I hate being solicited and so I transfer that notion to hating doing the soliciting.  But you know what?  I did it and it wasn't bad.  OK, so it's Washington and it's easy but now I'm confident that I could do it anywhere.

Tara,

OK - I already screwed up early this morning with Al's Electoral Vote Map.  But I'm seeing different numbers than yours.

The way my Monday is going I'm not doubting I will be 0-2 today.

I see Obama 46 - McCain 43 at that link as well, so no you are not just seeing things!

For the Chicken Little post.

I swear, if I read one more freak out....I will lose it. It's funny, but  I received some very gracious responses to my Nevada canvassing diary and a lot of it was from new people. People who have never thought about canvassing or didnt think they were up to it etc.

I feel like there are a lot of DKos readers that are affected by the bad energy and therefore are hit with a wave of nauseous "OMG I cant do it". A lot of new readers whose first year volunteering is this year and are looking for support in that area, a little scared of the battle.

If there were more personal diaries of the day to day grind of phonebanking, canvassing, volunteering, people feel a little more invigorated like THEY can do it. Stories that include specifics and battles won.

So thanks for the post. I agree 100%.

I'm going to delete the old link to stop the confusion.  That was the old July poll that showed the 3 point lead.  Here is the right link with the one point lead.  Sorry.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Michigan_908.pdf

The previous point still valid - the more polls that show the same result, the more statistically likely that result is true.

A couple more points about Michigan:

We have a Republican-controlled state congress, and a very unpopular (unfairly in my view) Democratic governor, and Stabenow and Levin were big Clinton supporters who are now doing the bare minimum for Obama. Granholm is receiving a lot of the blame for the economy here despite that this was predestined years ago.

We just don't have any surrogate power in the state, which means the ground game is just that much more important, along with Obama and Biden showing up personally.

Michigan is going to stay very close no matter what polls say; the demographics just don't allow for anything but a close race (last few elections have barely tipped Blue largely because of the union support, which continues to erode, and much of the white union support is openly racist). The determining factor will be the turnout in the more liberal areas, period. Getting a sense of that turnout will be a very good way to find out how Michigan will turn out.

I put in for Nov 4 off work so I could spend the day on GOTV activities - I'd suggest everyone who is capable to do the same.

Al and others -

I am in complete agreement that the Chicken Littling needs to end, and have been pushing back against it at other sites.

One question that I've never been able to answer satisfactorily, though, for myself and for others, is this:  Why doesn't Obama have more, effective surrogates on TV beating talking points into the heads of the media?

During the primaries it was understandable - the Dems hadn't taken sides yet, and Clinton had the big names in her corner.  But now we should have not only Tim Kaine and Claire McCaskill and Susan Rice and other strong surrogates that have been with Obama forever, but some of the Clinton folks as well on TV, pounding Obama's message of the day home.  Is there a good reason for this not to happen that I'm just missing?  (No offense to fans of John Kerry, but I really don't think he's that good of a surrogate on TV.)

It seems to me that there should be surrogates on TV repeating the Obama "they must think we're stupid" and the Biden "the silence is deafening" lines.

I'd love to be able to explain this phenomenon to folks I talk to who mention it.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=30939022-fb4c-4e07-bd5...

McCain 49, Obama 47. Essentially unchanged from last month, where it was McCain 48, Obama 47. No convention bounce for either.

It's looking very doable here.

I don't know the answer as to the surrogate strategy, but I think the best come back to all of this is, "Are you ready to volunteer? The MOST important thing right now is registering voters, and seeing they get to the polls."  Many people get caught up in the 24/7 media horse-racy, sound-bitey crap.  If anyone is waiting for this race to be won on CNN, forget it, it's over.  This race will be won on doorsteps and on phonecalls and in face time, showing who we are and putting a face to it all.  I take some pride, as a 50 year old guy, defeating a bit of stereotyping by not being a dreamy-eyed college student Obama admirer (no offense!).  So when people complain, hand it right back to them.  It really works (or at least they'll stop complaining to YOU about it which is worth a lot!)

James - I completely agree with you that it's going to be won on the ground.

My question is simpler than that, though: given the choice between a mediocre surrogate strategy on TV and a good one, why choose the mediocre one?

Obama has good surrogates: Kaine, McCaskill, Rice, Schweitzer, Wexler, Clark, etc.  The question is why aren't they used often, and why are mediocre surrogates sent out there instead?  I don't even have cable myself, but I read up on reports of what's going on and know whether the good surrogates are out there, and it seems like all too often they're not.  Like I said, there could be an underlying strategy to this, but I'm not sure what it is.

Virginia will certainly be interesting. If you decide to come here, make plans to travel the state. Northern Virginia is easy to travel to and a lot of fun, but it's our home turf. Massive turnout in NoVa is one big part of the story, but the Hampton Roads area is another. It will be key whether McCain does well there because of his Navy background or poorly because of military folks who are sick of the war and his piss-poor record on veterans. Not doing too badly in other downstate areas is yet another factor.

I can't promise hospitality personally, however. I'm a precinct leader, and though you're welcome to tag along, I can't spare any time for much else.

I don't have a good way to tracking who is appearing on all the shows, but I do know that I have seen people complaining "there are no surrogates" at times when I know for a fact that surrogates have appeared on TV. So I suspect that there are a lot of other people who have no way of tracking it and the idea that there are no surrogates may be the same as the idea that Obama is not attacking. Just because Chicken Littles do not see something, does not mean it didn't happen!

Al - I hope you don't mind me asking this here rather than in your diary; I figured it would get lost there. You mentioned how to get the emails that the campaign sends to the media. Is any kind of media credential or having an active political blog required for this, or can anyone receive it? I would like to sign up for these emails but just to have more information to share with people I talk to and not to blog about.

Jason Young,

With respect to white union members, should we tell them the fact that Obama is going to be president for all people in the United States.

Laura M - I don't see why any member of the Field Hands site can't write and say "I'm a blogger on Field Hands - http://fieldhands.ning.com - and request to be added to the Obama campaign's 'daily reporter' email list."

Let me know if that works.

The most pro-Obama county in the state during the caucus, as added bonus you can not only smoke in your hotel rooms, you can smoke anywhere but in restaurants.

Please rec it: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/8/16162/89006/580/591316

I caught an interview of Tom Friedman on NPR and he comes right out and says what many of us felt about the "Drill, baby, drill" line of the Repub convention and his view of John McCain - "bloody dishonest . . . and frankly disgusting."

What he says about the solar plant in Arizona is really interesting - what I see in the polls from Arizona is McCain slowly sinking and Obama slowly rising - it would be cool to push this issue to Arizonans.

KD

Al, thanks! I'll give that a try.

In light of the discussion about whether Obama is or is not attacking and whether surrogates are or are not out there, I was particularly amused to look at Daily Kos just now:

http://laura-atp.typepad.com/hittingback.JPG

On the rec list, we see diaries about Biden and Carville, while the top of the Recent Diaries list shows more Biden, plus Rendell.

Go figure!

My first thought - since two of the "Apocalyptic 8" states are next door to each other, and that Ohio opportunity seems so especially special and historic - is maybe to fly into Detroit in late September and spend a week on the ground in Michigan and Ohio reporting on the voter registration efforts and their degrees of success. Indiana, which might be in play by then, is also nearby.

Yes. Yes. Yes. Stay in Ohio during the week of 9/30 and report on how that register and vote week is going by all means.

Alternately, you can do a bit of work on Michigan as well. Or, if time is of the issue, you can forego Indiana and leave Ohio through the Southeast and head to Virginia.

If you go the MI-OH-IN route, let those of us who live in the area know what we can do to help re transport/food/lodging/cheap smokes.

I'm sure we'd chip in as a fundraiser as well.

From a MN point of view, we will keep the state Blue in November and may even get a new Senator on board in Al Franken.  The real battles will be WI, MI, and OH. 

Al, Thanks for posting on Kos. They really need it there. The outright resistance to reason--i.e. the rampant emotionalism-- that has so many of those commenters worked into a lather about being called out as "chicken littles" (or faux-liberal and emotionally unhinged political neophytes), is remarkable, ridiculous, and disappointing. There is a degree of political voyeurism that seems to be quite frankly unhealthy.  After reading a number of those breathless comments, I come over here and read the above comments and feel... peace and strength.

I would venture to assert, Al, that your list of readers is long enough that you could probably hit all of the states for an extended length of time and probably not have to pay for lodging. I think a lot of us would be glad to help in that department, I know I would (as long as, you know, you kept the smoking to the back deck. I have a wife to answer to.)

I read today where Larry Sabato, political scientist/election scholar, noted that post prediction polling predicts the outcome exactly half of the time.  So we can draw no inferences from polling right now.  Way too many developments to come.  It's funny how it's calming to hear it from an expert even though it's not really news.

I'm hoping this cycle ends up resembling 1980 where it was after the debate that folks really decided they were ready to trust the change candidate Reagan.  I hope two things regarding the debates - that American's have not become immune to thoughtful answers instead of soundbites and that Obama is preparing himself to give a few soundbites. : ))

New VA from SUSA:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=30939022-fb4c-4e07-bd5...

M 49

O 47

Showing 84:14 on the AA vote.  Bush got single digits, right?  Seems suspect to me.  Nevertheless, here's what we know about VA - it's anyone's ball game.

Also new polls out from Rasmussen:

5 new swing state polls from Rasmussen

One-day sample (yesterday), fairly small sample size (500 LVs in each state)

CO: O 49 - M 46
FL: O 48 - M 48
OH: M 51 - O 44
PA: O 47 - M 45
VA: M 49 - O 47

Link here: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fox_rasmussen_polling/fox_rasmussen_swing_state_polling

What the heck is up with OH anyway?  Seems to me like more than any state, pollsters all come up with different results there.

It's ridiculous the amount of diaries I have to skip over to find a few insightful ones.  The hand-wringing is so tiresome and can be demoralizing if you encounter enough of it.  Thanks so much for giving those over their that do nothing but panick the medicine they need.  I know most of them didn't like it, but it's good for them anyway.

1) Polling right now is still not useful.  McCain is enjoying a post-convention bounce and it will be at least a week until things settle down.  Nate at 538 has a bunch of good posts about this.

2) Al, I think you should visit the MI-OH-IN area.  All three are swing states in close geographic location to each other.  One thing that still sticks out in my mind from the primaries was the Obama campaign's ability to predict their vote total for Indiana before the final precincts (from the Gary area) came in.  In my opinion, that was a testament to their organizational success.  They were so organized that they were able to predict the final results to within a few hundred votes before a large county counted up the votes.

There's a lot of demographic diversity within that region too.  In Michigan, the conservatives are of the fiscal variety and you have Detroit and its unions.  Ohio has your Reagan Democrats in Appalachia and a large base of evangelicals.  Indiana is the birthplace of the KKK while at the same time it has Gary, which is a stone's throw from the Obama HQ in Chicago.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBtbG5xjFBY&eurl=http://www.jedreport.com/

Let's get ready to rumble!

http://voterdefense.wikispaces.com

I've spent all day working on my Wiki-knowledge is power!

Turn off your TV sets. step away from CNN, MSNBC......and get your news from what you consider a reliable , non echo chamber sites( The Field, 538, NPR).
Th botton line for the corporate media is the bottom line, and the bottom line demands a breathless portrayal of a close race, the bottom line demands empty and grating shouting matches between sides.

I rememeber the days after the TX and OH primaries, I hadn't found the Field yet, and I was stuck watching cable news, and although I knew Hillary had no effin' chance, I still let my self fall in that trap.

Just stay away, watch the debates, and instead of spending an hour watching Wolf Blitzer, and cursing the daylight out of him, spend that hour phonebanking.
I am done...DONE...with the cable news, I will watch my Obama clips from his channel, I will get my talking points from his campaign, then go out and be my own news outlet :). I make a policy now of bringing up the election in any conversation I am in...and I am ready every time to fight back the smears, and enlighten people about the repugs.

I am a Obama organizer in Pa.  While I consider my territory vital, if I was making a command decision for the field hands, I'd send them all to Ohio/Michigan.  These are states that gain most from Obama and crush McPOW if he loses.  He simply cannot win without these two states.

I guess Al has seen them already, can't wait to hear his reading of them!

I don't like the Rasmussen poll for Ohio (Mc +7), and I found the tie in Florida a nice surprise. Polls available here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

I'm in Michigan right now, since I go to school here, but I live in South Dakota and have lived there for 19 years. Virginia and Colorado are big stories, but the single biggest, most shocking story of this election has to be the fact that a Democrat is leading in North Dakota and Montana, crushing in Minnesota, and narrowly down in South Dakota. That's simply huge!

A visit to the northern states would be a good idea - you can use I-90 and drive east-west across MT, SD, and MN within a day. The north-south I-29 meets I-90 in Sioux Falls, South Dakota (it has some pretty good bars and a very interesting small-city vibe). You can go south on I-29 to find both Iowa and another huge but quiet story in this election: Nebraska's 1st Congressional District, where Obama could steal an EV. Go north on I-29 at FSD, and you're in Fargo and Grand Forks. And if you want a break, you can see the Peace Gardens and go north to Canada on 29.

The best part about these states? They're all extremely cheap - gas is low, restaurants are reasonable, and you get that Midwestern politeness that I feel is sorely lacking in other areas of the country.

Is is out of the ordinary? Yeah. But think on it for a while!

 My Repub friends (3) who were all for Obama last month have now changed their tune. All of them are saying that Obama will change the capital gains tax, inheritance tax and raise their business taxes. They know Palin is extreme, but it comes down to financial. All of them have been told by accountants and stock brokers (not the same ones) that financially they will lose with Obama. I do not know how to respond to this. I have done my best to be informed on the tax issues, especially for small businesses but the message these people are getting is Obama will be bad financially for them. These are businesses who employ less than 120 people but do a lot of $$ in gross sales.

Please help me counteract this. Thanks!

Christi - If they earn more than $250,000 a year, it's true that they'll be paying more. (And those that have much who vote on self interest - as if the war or other matters shouldn't even be considered - are the problem.) If they earn less than that, their accountants are bullshitting them for political purposes.

Others here have linked to a web page where people can calculate how much less or more they will pay in taxes under the Obama plan. Can somebody get Christi that link, please?

There's no appealing to the self interest of those already comfortable. Fortunately, there are many who are comfortable that look at their wider self interest beyond their annual tax bill. Find out what those greater interests are and make the argument there.

And you could swing by Florida, too, if that works.  I'm sure it's probably still tobacco-friendly throughout the whole South.  In Louisiana, I saw Drive-Thru Cocktails; some of the smaller towns are dry on Sundays, so stock up the day before.

My 2nd choice is Texas! As much as I dream some of the South could go Obama, I would love to see the Lone Star add a HUGE swatch of blue to the election night map.  I hear all around Texans are really fired up.  I would like to hear what's going on in the lower income areas near the border.  I know you were just in TX for NetRoots, but I think there's still a lot more to see there.

Everyone, let's drop something in the kitty for this trip! (Can't wait for awesome photos, as well as the always great reporting)

Buena suerte!

Si, se puede!

Si somos americanos, seremos buenos vecinos;
compartiremos el trigo,seremos buenos hermanos -- canción de Rolando Alarcón

Todos somos americanos.-- Barack Obama

 I have drilled into them the personal taxes and the $250k but it is the business taxes, the capital gains taxes, and the inheritance taxes that are the issue for all three. I can not find enough info on these issues to pushback.

 Highlights Al's post at Kos today! Good for them!

obamataxcut.com

I think Dems are insane to back inheritance taxes. That is the singular reason I have heard for eight years why people back Republicans over Democrats.

If you're a single kid inheriting, then the amount in taxes can make sense. But if there are five or seven kids, the amount is NOT TAXED after the inheritance is divvied up among the five or seven. It is TAXED BEFORE the inheritance amount is divvied up, and therefore the five or seven kids, or large families, are disadvantaged.

Think about it. Do the math.

Hits Latino families, large AA families.

Christi:

I just read a comment on dKos about this issue.  I say you should talk to your friends in general about the economy and ask them if they are doing better now during the Bush years, or were they doing better during the Clinton years.  Yes, they may be paying a higher tax in an Obama administration, but ask them when were their revenues higher - during Clinton's administration, or during Bush's?  Also, I do know that Obama touts benefits to small businesses in his plan on his website and says he will eliminate capital gains taxes on small businesses:

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/economy/#small-business

Support Small Business

• Provide Tax Relief for Small Businesses and Start Up Companies: Barack Obama will eliminate all capital gains taxes on start-up and small businesses to encourage innovation and job creation. Obama will also support small business owners by providing a $500 “Making Work Pay” tax credit to almost every worker in America. Self-employed small business owners pay both the employee and the employer side of the payroll tax, and this measure will reduce the burdens of this double taxation.
• Create a National Network of Public-Private Business Incubators: Barack Obama will support entrepreneurship and spur job growth by creating a national network of public-private business incubators. Business incubators facilitate the critical work of entrepreneurs in creating start-up companies. Obama will invest $250 million per year to increase the number and size of incubators in disadvantaged communities throughout the country.

KD

Ok, I'm kidding.

But any day now we'll get some small sample "poll" showing a "narrow" race there and the bloviators will talk about a big potential McCain takeaway - and of course, the Dems will romp.

Never, ever believe the infamous "New Jersey narrowing" narrative.

I thought he brought his b-game to Stephanpoulous yesterday. I hope he's a bit better tonight. Anyone have a readout yet?

I am reminded what Plouffe said recently: If Obama wins Colorado, McCain's chance of winning is only 10%.

sorry no link

Christi, Obama's change is about asking people that are benefiting more to shell out a little bit more for folks that need a semi-sound government saftey net so that their families too can propser and enjoy opprotunities in our nation.

Look, they got tax cuts when the US government was engaging in profligate, deficit spending (putting the burden on future generations)--the party's over, the dollar is in decline and the US isn't the super-power it once was in the past.

If they don't get that they should pay more because it is the correct and patriotic thing to do, then you might consider that they weren't the cool, decent 'friends' you thought they were in the first place.

It hurts to admit it--but some people are simply parasitical, selfish slugs.  If they saw Jesus today they'd call him a commie and call the FBI.

Be bold, the facts are on our side, and the arch of the moral universe bends toward justice, as MLK, Jr. famously quipped  (before the effers killed the man).

Hey, I have lost friends on the right and the left.

"The art of losing isn't hard to master,

though sometimes it can seem (write it!)

Like disaster"

Elisebeth Bishop

Christi,

It sounds like with 120 employees, it would not generally be considered a small business and therefore the tax is not a plus.  HOWEVER, as Al said, SOME people are concerned about the Constitution, ethics, soldiers getting killed needlessly, others less fortunate having to declare bankruptcy when they get ill, older folks not able to retire without fear of losing their savings, etc., etc.  Warren Buffett probably makes more than all three of these people combined and he would get a huge tax hit under the Obama plan but he supports Obama for the good of the country.  What a novel idea...

I remember the day before the Bush/Kerry election and the Republicans in my office were rolling their eyes about a Kerry capital gains tax, etc and I just said to them, "as long as you guys can live with the fact that you are personally responsible for the next American boy brought home in a body bag...as long as your bag is full of money---that's all you need to decide." 

If your friends have not already read this article, I recommend that they do so:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/24/magazine/24Obamanomics-t.html

This explains Obama's approach to economics as a whole, and how his different policies fit into it. As others have said, Obama does believe that those with more should be asked to help those with less. If your friends are unwilling to accept that, they are probably not ever going to vote Democratic because that is a fundamental principle.

Illinois!!  Ok I'm kidding. My vote?  Without having to go too far from your "South of the Border" location go north thru Florida and hit Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia.  Then when that Obama guy wins, you can just camp out in D.C., for a few short months, watching the REAL bums lose their homes there as their replacements take over Congress.  (Lots of time to blog AND get those shots set up at a DC bar for all of us Field Hands in January.) Gotta think big here!!

The latest comedian from London on the MTV Video Music Awards show last night.  About Bristol Palin's boyfriend, "I think that is thee best safe sex message of all time.  Use a condom or become Republican."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vm-8_ljdZIU

Also let's not forget that when everyone else gets taxed less, that's more money to trickle up to those on top.

I believe Biden made a point the other day that, if you lower everyone's taxes and only raise the very top, the very top doesn't really lose out because they'll be doing better anyway as a result of everyone else having lower taxes.

Not to mention Obama's healthcare plan would help businesses immensely by reducing costs and providing more choice.

Thanks Steven for the last lines of "One Art." This has been a great thread focused on how to eat McCain eat "disaster."

 Do they need skilled employees? You could talk about education policy. Do they pay a lot of shipping/transport costs? Relate it to long term energy policy/middle east policy etc. Do they offer medical/dental plan? If not, how much productivity are they losing to sickness? Also, I might ask if their business will do better with a Clinton style strong middle class or a Bush style weak middle class. As long as they aren't in the foreclosure business. If they are planning to stay in business more than a few years there are a lot of things that will affect their bottom line, get then to think about their business in 4 years.

People like dansac and slinker, though solid Obama supporters, were dragging down the morale there. I am glad your diary made the rec list with  most posters agreeing with you.

amk

 This is the greatist online site ever! Thank you one and all for all the responses. I am going to have to re-read all the comments again and take it all in, then respond to my friends. It's complicated.

What a day! Many things happened today to create a major revelation. A few weeks ago, I organized a community works project to paint the nice elderly couples home across the street from me, after my 3 friends told me about the change of heart today and I called for help, the elderly neighbors told me they were voting for McDraft too. They are broke! I don't get it! That means they cancel me & my hubby out ( I worked really hard to convert him). Too much for me to handle in one day :-|

That means they cancel me & my hubby out

No it doesn't. It means a friend or relative got to them with a fear-based reason to stay with McCain.

Buy her the upcoming National Enquirer(s). The NE is going after Palin with a vengeance, and I think for two reasons. (1) to show the MSM -- again -- how to investigate [dont forget the NE internal rules are that each outrageous fact must have a minimum of two documented sources vetted by their legal dept then stored in the NE vault as proof, whether the complete source material is used or not.] (2) Make money.

The NE "John Edwards team" got up to AK to scour court docs before anyone thought to seal them. Here's what they're promising. The NE pays their sources, Christi, shamelessly. Good sources can make 10G - 20Gs, and up. They're not cheap, and why should they be, considering their subscription and supermarket base.

I know, because I was present once, how NE reporters vet their sources and how they haggle for definitive proof before handing over the dough. In one instance, the source had to give the equivalent of a video affidavit about the facts the source was giving. The reporter used a camcorder. The source had been present at the event the NE was covering as a cover story -- it really was explosive Hollywood gossip -- and the NE reporter promised (on tape as well) not to use all the facts on the tape. It was, however, the only way the NE lawyers authorized the source's 30G check. Two hour's work.

Thanks for the info on Imus.  I followed him regularly until the firing and agree that he was all over Bush Co. about Walter Reed and other b.s.  But I didn't know about his present audience nor that he "would not be unhappy with an Obama administration".  Good to know!

The Daily Show, Colbert Report and the National Enquirer too often NE beat MSM reporting.  Incredible, huh?

 All the people who told me yesterday they were voting for McCain have no children. I guess they don't care what happens as much because of it. Steven is right,(thank you for your comments) selfish slugs.

Thanks Alexa, I'll try that. I am leaving (to volunteer) my husband will work on the neighbors, but he thinks it might be racial, ugh. As for the 3 friends who have changed thier tune, I sent them the link from Laura P. along with excerpts of comments from you all. I am also going with the approach, the new revolution will be energy technology, like the IT revolution, the ET revolution of renewable energy will be the place for these people to invest next. McCain does not see this as the great revolution it will be and continues to push for fossil fuels which eventually we will run out of.

Read this before you go, especially last paragraph, which i will quote:

WSJ: Record Contradicts Palin's 'Bridge' Claims

The McCain campaign jumped back with spokesman Brian Rogers calling the attacks "hysterical."

"The only people 'lying' about spending are the Obama campaign. The only explanation for their hysterical attacks is that they're afraid that when John McCain and Sarah Palin are in the White House, Barack Obama's nearly $1 billion in earmark spending will stop dead in its tracks," Mr. Rogers said.

At a rally today, Sen. McCain again asserted that Sen. Obama has requested nearly a billion in earmarks. In fact, the Illinois senator requested $311 million last year, according to the Associated Press, and none this year. In comparison, Gov. Palin has requested $750 million in her two years as governor -- which the AP says is the largest per-capita request in the nation.

Spread the cancelling out around, Christi.  Judging from your persistence, you may have convinced 10 other people to vote for Obama, and/or to get registered so they can vote for Obama.  So, these people have canceled out a tenth of your vote, perhaps, and a tenth of 9 other peoples'.  There will always be someone we can't convince, I think.  That's true in my case, anyway.  Man, the human mind is weird.

& Small Businesses. A Dem friend sent me this link. It is a good debunker about the small business tax myth.Dropped here in case any else needs it.

Ann, you are right, I have registered 4 new people in the last month and convinced some others, so I am not really cancelled out.

Christi, and all talking to some Republicans, I can't talk intelligently about taxes, no matter how many articles I read or graphs I try to understand - so I usually bring the discussion to community. The larger, for me, question of what kind of a world, country do I want to live in. Seems the Dems have been beaten for years on the issues labeled 'values' and I regret that MY values aren't considered as such by many people. So while I appreciate and respect the issues surrounding economics, more important seems to me what kind of a world do we all want to live in.

Thinking, its a paraphrase, of something someone told me Marion Wright Edelman said: "service is the rent we pay for being human." Well, taxes represent my contribution to the society I want us to create for all of us.

You'll find better words to speak to your friends :) but that's the gist of what I try to do.

Christi, after I wrote that I felt kind of bad.  So you mix with upper income/upper class Republicans--and I 'mix' with lower income folks that likely will vote McLame.  These are good people--and I think that much of their impetus for voting Republican is tied to some pretty barbaric stereo-types about gays, black folks, and lower-income people (welfare, 'responsiblility' etc.)

As opinionated as I am, I know how to state my major concerns--and leave it at that.  Pushing it further would mean creating ill-will.

I only go off on random Rethugs that I meet in disperse locations (like the Hardee's today--I called an older pro-McCain ATT&T guy  unpatriotic for being agaisnt raising the minimum wage to keep pace with inflation. LOL  They kicked me out of the store.  So be it.  I'm not a wacko--but, hey, we're getting down to the wire.)

But, as I said, some people are simply opprotunistic slugs. They aren't remotely patriotic, because such an emotion requires caring about one's fellow citizens.

Brendan, you will note that I acutally 'misquoted' that great poem "One Art".

Uggh!  I should have googled it--instead I look half-assed (which I am, most of the time, so I am being authentic.)

Another Bishop poem that is appropos: "The Moose".  Though set in New England, still conjure up images of Palin.  However, in that poem the people only look at the moose in amazement--they don't shoot it.

 Thanks for making me laugh! Your funny! Your comments last night made me realize something about my friends that I hadn't before. I actually cried for a little while. Then I got mad and now I am going to let it go, for the sake of my mental health. Hey they live in CA. We are safe here as of now.

Economics may be at the heart of it, but how much more of a battering will they take if McCain takes us deeper into war?

Check this:

 That is one scary video, I will forward it and see if they watch it or not. Thanks!

I think your post hit a chord because we all have people like this in our lives (or in our door-to-door contacts!).  Here's a simple response:  "Country First".

I think you know where to go from there!

 I believe you are on-the-money in that. I did not mean for this thread to be hijacked like this. Sorry Al. Having said that, this is not just about me, it is about all the people we come across like this in the next 56 days. Thank you! "Country First"

Al, I wondered if you had any insight into how the different polling institutions are capturing disaffected voters?  I'm a lifetime Republican voter here in VA and I've been supporting/donating to Obama since early this year.  Are they using old voting patterns, or are they accurately picking up the cross overs?

Also, I have to wonder if the Obama camp might be more successful on Palin if they just went radio silent on her.  Not only in their campaign presentations but also to the press squad?  Right now they are feeding the hungry beast and satiating their hunger for something, ANYTHING on Sarah Palin.  Wouldn't it be wiser to just shut the press down and force them to turn to the McCain campaign for their daily "sustenance"?  Just a thought.

The Big Three polls are now suddenly oversampling Republicans even as Democratic registrations go through the roof:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/09/poll-madness-mccain-takes_n_125158.html

The new poll from Pollster.com for Investor's Business Daily (as conservative as it gets) that shows Obama up 45-40 would seem to lend some support to this:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_obama_45_mccain_40_ibdtipp9.php

There is a basic error in psychology in this report that favors the GOP: a map of the us with states in area rather then electoral college votes.

if maps were routinely drawn with the area of a state equal to its electoral college vote, people would routinely get the message that most people live in dem states.

drawign the map on area sends, psychologically, an impression that most of the us is GOP