Where Should The Field Go to Report the Voter Registration Deadline?

I'd love you in Minnesota, but we're not exactly a swing state.

I'd say North Carolina and Virgina though, not MI and OH. A lot more voter reg going on in those states and I also think they will be closer then OH and MI.

Can't wait for the reports.

I kind of like the idea of visiting Colorado (yes, you were just there!), New Mexico, and Nevada since in your analysis (and I agree) that is where Obama will win the election if he does. I would also be interested in Virginia, but if you can visit multiple states in the same trip, that is most effective. However, Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana works too!

But I think you should come to my home-state of New Mexico, as this could be a good place to come to look at whether or not Obama's been able to improve on his Latino outreach since the primaries, even though I'd prefer you come to Albuquerque (my hometown), it would make a lot of sense to go down to the southern part of the state where the latino population is largest (and which is the most Republican part of the state) to see how Obama's been able to do with his registration effort.

There was an article in HuffPo about college students' voter registrations, that their registrations could affect their scholarships.  It seems the claims are unfounded, however, it appears some clarifications are in order.  Here is the link:

http://insidehighered.com/news/2008/09/03/voting

Virginia and North Carolina

KWiz - That Montgomery County Virginia registrar E. Randall Wertz sounds like a real creep. The disinfo he put out there is clearly intended to suppress registration among students based on falsehoods. He works for the Montgomery Board of Supervisors. Does anybody know the political party make-up of that board? They can fire him at will. And they should.

Because of the Cuban vote, because it is a swing state, because of the history of 2000, because nobody else seems to be covering it and because I'll leave Panama within a year from now and Miami is a serious option but only if Obama wins.

Bill J knows his blogger and has made a very convincing case for Virginia and North Carolina!

Elliot - It's not a long drive from Las Cruces to Albuquerque and vice versa. And I do speak Spanish. Good point.

I am definitely biased in favor of the Indiana/Michigan/Ohio battle zone. What's happening in Indiana is as surprising as it is exciting.

However, I am also very curious about Virginia and North Carolina and how those states with sizable African American populations are organizing for this historic opportunity. These two states, like the Southwest, are also on the cusp of really becoming the New (and blue) South.

And then, I am especially keen on learning about the breakdown of Florida's Cuban block.  Having someone on the ground in South Florida to dissect the generational tensions in the Cuban community, not to mention the Cuban/Dominican divide, would be illuminating.

So, my entirely selfish suggestion is a proper roadtrip: 3 days in each of these battle zones. Surely we have Fieldhands stationed in crucial sites in each area. There's certainly hospedaje and cerveza/guaro in this rinconcito in Terre Haute, IN!

Okke - My mom would like that, too. I figured she'd be the first to weigh in with that counsel. Plus, I do have to pick from which state I will cast my first official vote (not counting the "Americans Abroad" primary in February, for which one doesn't need to be registered in one of the fifty stars) in twelve years, and I have as legitimate a claim to residency there as anywhere. And, true, nobody else is going to do the on-the-ground report from the younger Cuban-American community.

So many swing states... so little time!

Early ballots can be cast in Iowa starting Sept. 25th.  Howard Dean was just in Iowa City last Friday telling students to knock 40 doors 4 times between now and the election... and most of my family have already been knocked and handed an application for absentee ballots.  Pretty impressive considering Iowa is already looking pretty good for Nov.  I'd imagine it's gonna get pretty intense in those closer contests.  AND we've gotten direct mail with absentee applications. heh.

Brendan is the first sadist to weigh in. He says do three swing regions in nine days! (FL, NC-VA and IN-OH-MI!)

That would take a budget, and extry good organizing by Field Hands on the ground to pull off. Plus - since The Field doesn't do "connecting flights" - a reasonable flight plan. From my corner of América, I can fly direct to Detroit, Chicago, Miami, Charlotte (imagine that!), Denver or DC. I also have a back door into New Mexico. But getting between those places without having to change planes, get my luggage lost by airlines and die of nicotine-withdrawl? That would be a challenge, and expensive, too!

Now that the cash is starting to flow again I was going to make a donation today (a late donation for Denver), but I see that Jed may need some and now this proposed trip.

Al, your thoughts?

(Manly)BondiBeachViews

Hi,

Virginia and Colorado seem interesting to me because a non-traditional batleground would be fun. But I understand the argument for the Ohio registration push.

I know that I am not supposed to be doing this, but I have been feeling anxious. Anyone out there willing to give me some inoculating words. Planning to phone bank this week which should help...

Virginia,

It's the population in VA that has changed so much, not MI or OH. NoVA will be huge for Obama and there are a lot of volunteers there.

Of the big 3 (OH, CO and VA) it will be the hardest to flip...

The candidates can't seem to stay away from Michigan, so why should you!

waterprise2 would probably agree that you should join us here, and thankfully our legislature moves slowly enough that it hasn't done anything crazy like banning smoking in restaurants and bars.

Every intelligent analysis I read puts the Michigan ground game as the number 1 or 2 most important thing to securing the election; getting an honest assessment of that ground game in its final stages seems like a smart choice to me.

Pamela, I'm sure, would be able to hook you up with campaign connections in Detroit and show you around, and I can definitely provide information about the Lansing/East Lansing area, and maybe even a couple other locations. I'll be spending as much time as possible on the ground until Nov 4, so if you were to arrive in Michigan at the end of this month, I could make it a priority to gather intel.

Some fresh insider info to prove my street cred: Kal Penn (of Harold and Kumar) will be here Wednesday for a voter registration/bar crawl, and Drew Barrymore will be making a surprise appearance Saturday for a rally and for knocking on doors.

Also, should you come to Michigan, I'd be more than happy to assist with whatever - feel free to email me if Michigan is one of your choices.

Isn't it amazing that we have to work at all to win this election, given the horror show of the past eight years, and the weakness of the McCain/Palin ticket?   This oughta be a no-brainer, but it isn't.  Why?  Is the corrupt and biased corporate media the problem, or is the electorate ill-informed and beyond salvation?

The latest poll doesn't bother me, but the stories about purging voter rolls in swing states does.  Happens in every election, it seems.  How is it countered any differently this time?

Dona - First, a lot of those reports have not been adequately documented.

Second, I think it's a dangerous game to tell people their votes don't count: some of that is being pushed by the trolls to try and foment panic.

Third, in every state, there is a well organized strategy to counter-act it.

My friend Greg Palast has been pushing those buttons a lot, and people have been copying his stuff, but there's an easy solution: re-register them. There's still time. The focus should be on that and not on the adversities.

i humbly suggest a colorado, nevada, new mexico trip.  the southwest seems to be the future of the democratic majority, and each of those states have very interesting on-the-ground dynamics that would be fun to report and hear about.

virginia would be interesting too, but hitting the southwest would be three for the price of one, eh? 

I  think there is going to be some really interesting stories on the ground in Ohio during early voting.  I am hoping that there will be some amazing turnout (and it is not going to be covered by the traditional media).

And Obama is putting a ton of resources into Indiana. They must see something in their internal polling. It could turn out to be the surprise of the election.  My hope is that Obama makes Indiana close, so it can't be called first on election night.

a RNC pressure tactic ? His seemed to be a lonely liberal voice and that has been shut off too. I agree with basil on both counts - corrupt corporate media and low-info voters.

amk

I know other important 'swing states' may be closer in the polling than NM and may merit more active attention, but this is a great staaging area (for Colorado and Nevada) to try and drum up some activity and enthusiasm (as well as reinforce what is already simmering in the progressive community).

The fact that you have a whole clutch of friends here is another good reason.

PS

Al,

In regards to my friends comment just so you are clear; no you do not know me but you do know my mom, dad, sister, and uncle . . .  yes, I am one of those Cleavers.  Hope to see you in NM.

Well, Al, I naturally would expect that you come to Florida, where the election was literally stolen in 2000.

What does Florida represent in the context of this national election cycle?  Many things: it is amorphous, ethnically diverse, and has some strange demographics.

The Latino community is broad, and it is becoming more important and better defined with every election.   The population of the state could double in the next twenty years.

Labor repression and exploitation is fierce here.

The corporate and public (NPR) media in the state is abysmal, and skews very heavy to the far right--however we have at least one community radio station in Tampa as is pretty decent.

The Rep/Dem political class are rightwing and center-rightwing, respectively.   In my city of Orlando even the head of the NAACP switched to the Republican party (go along to get along--the guy was associated with the construction industry here).

Ecologically the state is a basket-case, and the pillage continues.

Lastly, if you came here you would see both the promise and the limitations of Obama's ground operation here.  Your fluency in Spanish would enable you to gain insight into the ideology that stands astride the Cuban community in Miami.

The polling here I think skews toward McCain more than it does in reality--given the fact that cell phones are not adequately accounted for in traditional sampling of the big guns.

These are some of my best arguments.  I don't think that Florida is a lost cause.  But at the same time, the crucial states like Indiana, Ohio, Michigan; and, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado--these might be better areas of interest as far as a discernable blue-trend is concerned.

As I said, Florida is pretty damned amporphous and hard to put one's finger on.

I immediately broke Al's rule of *no caps* to emphasize Michigan!  "My" Jason, one of the 1st to join the Metro Motown Fieldhands, hit the nail on the head! I feel like a *proud momma* watching Jason do Fieldhand work in Lansing and @ Michigan State!

The O-man is here again today, his 3rd visit in 2 weeks.  The dirty Rethugs have already started a commercial trying to link Obama with former mayor (and now convicted felon) Kwame Kilpatrick...showing Obama praising Kilpatrick back in the days when praise was warranted (like 9 months ago)...

Yes, Al, I can "hook you up" here in Detroit and environs, even "pick you up" from the Airport!

Wish I could house you too, but with my Dad incapacitated at their house, and my daughter back from Phoenix because of her own health problems at my house, it would be kinda difficult.

But if you would like, I could sure find you some housing by asking around...especially the blues/jazz musician friends of my hubby the blues/fusion/jazz musician...o-o-o-o, fun!

Yes, I'm pretty tuned into the politicial bigwigs and littlewigs around here; through my Pastor, the president of the NAACP--you know, you all saw him introduce Rev. Wright at the NAACP dinner last April; my husband's connections, and my connections.

You know how much we have to keep Michigan Blue...and we're only 45 minutes from Ohio!

I'm looking at my schedule RIGHT NOW to move things around!

Michigan, Go Blue!

waterprise2 AKA Pam

Liberal with a Capital L!

Is there a site where you can get in tabulated form registration dates and information on polling place requirements and id requirements and such?

Nevada would be interesting too. Or perhaps a long shot like Indiana or North Carolina?

Al,

Michigan-Ohio-Indiana represents 48 electoral votes. Is there any question where you should go?

==================

On the Palin issue: is she ready to negotiate with Putin on Feb 1, 2009? That's the critical question. If McCain wins, I will be leaving the country. No fight left in me. Stupid to try. I will probably be somewhere in Latin America. (I love to tango, and I'm good at that wrap my leg around your leg shit.) If Americans are stupid enough to re-elect Bush Lite/Heavy/Whatever, my hands go up and I will leave the country to the collective stupidity. Besides, the real global economic action is occurring between Dubai and Singapore. The US is a decade away from oblivion if it doesn't change course dramatically. But this is my last fight.

Hi Al,

Sounds like a great road trip for you wherever you end up.  Glad to see your comments about the voter rolls being purged - I'm just aghast like others here that this race is even close. 

I couldn't find where you clarify what the numbers on each of the states means but then it's early morning so that will be my excuse.  I'm assuming it means how many days left to register in those states as of today?

Come to Michigan, and come to Kalamazoo.  Kalamazoo is one of the nation's big swing districts, and it has a demographics that mirrors those of the rest of the state.  They are doing big voter registration here and getting people from Chicago involved.  I've got the cell of the local field organizer if you want it, and I plan to be back there.

Virginia is in play. If he wins Virginia and Colorado he wins the White House. Three Virginians were on the VP short list. Virginia is home to his base: educated whites and blacks. However it is also home to parts of Appalacia.

Obama 41 offices statewide.

Al - I may be biased (as a former resident) but I think Virginia is the story of this election.  A red state that even voted for Bob Dole when everyone else was voting for Clinton.  I've seen the grassroots on the ground who got themselves organized in Dec 2006 to get a petition together to get Obama on the ballot for the primary.  No campaign staff arrived in Virginia until one week before the Virginia Primary (because it was a week after Super Tuesday and before Super Tuesday we thought Virginia was not going to matter).  But when they got there the grassroots already had a huge database for them to work from, and we ended delivering a 30 point win for Obama with 973,931 voter turnout compared with 395,903 for 2004.  The Virginia campaign has been holding registration drives every single weekend since May, plus nightly phonebanks.  Right now, there are 235,976 more registered voters in Virginia than 2004.  Bush beat Kerry in 2004 by 262,000.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/17/AR200808...

Plus, if pollster.com safe and leaning states do stay blue, Virginia's 15 EVs will put Obama over the top in ET.

In addition, you could drive to Florida and pass through the important states of North Carolina and Georgia on the way.

Something else I would be interested in - if we could have a plant in the RNC's efforts in Virginia - I would like to see what they're up to.  And another thing I'd like to hear about is the "military" vote in VA - it's assumed this is Republican but I have my doubts about that.

KD

of each state.

amk

Catherine - By "numbers on the map" I mean the numbers of newly registered voters - and specifically, where available, how many of them are Democrats, Independents or Republicans.

For example, in Heather's post below yours she notes that the Obama campaign had set a goal of registering 150,000 new voters in Virginia and and claims that in the first three months of that drive it registered 113,500. That means it has the month of September to meet or exceed its goal of another 36,500 more to create a bump of 1.75 percent in the Virginia vote totals. What we'll know at the deadline (or when the secretary of the commonwealth or municipalities release the info) is whether those goals were met there and in other states.

Because many of these new voters are young and/or economically poor, many pollsters aren't picking them up on their radar either because they're "cell phone only" or traveling or using a parent's address while living elsewhere.

I also highly suspect that the overseas military vote is going to be mainly for Obama given the demographics of who becomes a soldier in this day and age and general skepticism among those that know best about the war. Their absentee ballots will be counted in their home states, but I'm not yet sure how to measure that in advance other than to talk to some town and city clerks that might be willing to share the info available only to them.

Just wanted to mention that there are some states with same day voter registration, including Maine, Wisconsin and Minnesota. (There may be some others.) So in those places, the hunt should still be on for early voters and for making sure people know what they need if they are going to register at the polls.

Meanwhile, in Maine:

The numbers from the Secretary of State’s Office indicate that for every two new Democrats since November 2006, the GOP was losing an enrolled voter. There were 309,525 registered Democrats in Maine and by June 2008, that had increased to 319,690 registered Democrats. Over the same time, registered Republicans decreased from 279,641 to 273,686.

The largest block of potential voters, the independent or unenrolled, also increased, going from 375,235 to 379,024. The Green Independent Party members dipped slightly, from 29,347 in 2006 to 29,160 in June of this year. http://bangornews.com/detail/50325.html

I think that if you use Chicago area as a base, you can get to all 3 states (and WI) quite easily. This could give some understanding  to the regional work and the numbers.

I also think that we should fundraise for this. An online fundraiser plus a land-based event or an event in each state. And, if it's in the Chgo area, I am more than willing to help organize.

will be very interesting and gets my vote. it's a big and extremely diverse state. there are definite pockets of blue, like my hometown of charlottesville, inside large swaths of red, and those pockets are continuing to expand. as a bonus, there are some interesting congressional races happening too. 

In addition to my "Tobacco Friendly" post (blatant and shameless attempt to shortcut Al's decision making process), I heartily agree with above posts on Virginia.  Virginia is poised for an historic switch to Blue in November (LBJ was the last time it went Blue).

Here in Northern VA, the Obama campaign has been visibly active all summer registering voters.  Kerry never contested the state, even though Zobgy polling showed it to be a close race down to the end.

In my district, long time incumbent Frank Wolf is suddenly in a fight for once.  Tom Davis is retiring his post in the next district, and refused to take on Warner for the Senate. 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/06/AR2008090602707.html

Things are going to be exciting here...

Al probably assumed I couldn't possibly be that dull this morning. 

The absurd montage of pinochle, Cuban sandwhiches, right wing terrorists and hanging chads make the fertile terrain of reportage fit to be reported on only by a comedian.  I say Al, go to the midwest and cover Michigan, Ohio, and possibly Indiana...and let's raise money to send Katie to Florida where she can ride us all through a golf cart ride of insightful humor.

Al- I think you need to be unleashed all over the blogosphere to admonish everyone about their chicken littling. Me, Anushka, the former empress of chicken littles am just not worried as I was during the primaries. I think O will do well. The polls will go up and own and like Al said this is not going to be easy. But, with solid effort on our part and Obama's  I think we'll do just fine. Everyone has all kinds of advice for Obama- dont they think the Obama campaign knows?

Al-I think your plan is the best...I'd love to see Ohio do the right thing this time since it's often left up to them. Also I think getting your feet into Michigan will be interesting...(My in-laws are there and still think Barack is a muslim, refuse to use a computer, and never even vote).  I'd love to hear your reports from out of there...

I knocked on doors yesterday for Obama in the Northern Virginia suburb of Herndon on two residential streets.  People there told me that I was the third person to contact them on behalf of Obama and they had yet to see a McCain campaign outreach effort.  If Obama is going to win VA and the election in November, this is how it will happen.   

MN-IA-MO-KS:  Road trip up/down I-35!  KS where Barack's grandparents and mom are from, MO because McCaskill has worked her tail off, IA where we got the ball rolling and MN, well, because you'd rather visit there now instead of the dead of winter!  ha  Plus, the midwest is always "interesting" or "curious" to people especially this election (read: white people voting for a black man!).

What happens in these two states will tell a lot about how the election will turn out.

Mikell Hagood

amk

As much as I would *love* to have a beer with Al in Wisco, I really think that Wisconsin isn't a "swing" state this time around.  It should be safely Purple (I think I'm calling Obama states Purple, McCain state Red, due to my hoped-for working majority in an Obama map-changer).

The Ohio early voting - and quadrennial shenanigans - would give a real good case for on-the-ground reporting, as well as proximity to the newly organized Michigan (no primary presence requires catch-up) and the dark horse Indiana.

Plus, I want Al to go to Pennsyltucky and find out some information on the ground, rather than from polling and census data.  I want to know if it's as bad for Obama as we've been told to believe.

That said, my favorite way to wind-down after GOTV work and to kill the 11p-2a hours on election nights is to watch returns from Richmond and St. Louis (and likely Research Triangle, Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte, maybe Gary, Cleveland, Columbis, and Cincinnati proper this November).  A VA-NC(-SC/GA) swing would be very interesting.

Yes Virginia is tobacco country (as a recent NYC transplant, I've had a bit of culture shock in the restaurants), LOL.  The potential for the state to flip makes a genuinely fascinating story line, especially with the success of Tim Kaine and Mark Warner.  Additionally, there is a cultural diversity in the area that is quite interesting.  So Virginia would definitely be a good choice.

However, I think the voter issues and economic issues of MI and OH make those two states even more fertile ground for election examination.  There is a new democratic SOS in Ohio -- has she been successful in cleaning up the abominable election practices there?  Michigan has been decimated in a Republican economy -- will they get out and vote against 4-8 more years of the same?

My second choice, behind the MI-OH option, would be the Western swing:  NV-CO-NM, as these are emerging Democratic hotspots (although I think NM is pretty safe for Obama).

Wherever you go, I look forward to reading.

Al going on some bizarro "See all of Europe in 10 days!" style trip.  :-)  Is my sadist showing?  But, if I have to pick, I vote for MI/OH/IN. 

*  Firewall/Old Swing State/New Swing State. 

*  Two states where Obama camp was able to build for important primaries [OH earlier and IN later] versus nothing in crazy MI. 

*  The added fun of seeing if Crew Clinton/DLC in all 3 are still under orders leading to my Senator [HRC] running again in 2012. 

*  I think that week of 9/30 - 10/6 of One-Stop-Shopping [register and early vote all at once] in OH could be very indicative of the campaign's ability to turn it out on both national campaign and grassroots levels. 

*  Being able to see if Obama was able to make any inroads in Appalachia. 

*  Cherry on top - smoke at will!