Ha Ha! They Haven't a Clue

By Al Giordano

 

Greetings from Denver!

And, gee, who could have possibly imagined that Camp Obama might wait until next week to announce the VP pick?

And if Obama was going to announce Clinton as his running mate, sorry, but it's now too late to do it while I'm stuck on an airplane and off the screen!

I've been watching CNN since I got to town a little while ago and the talking heads of the media are going absolutely nuts because they haven't a clue as to who the pick will be. "We're on pins and needles," Lou Dobbs is screeching.

The network has live cams outside of the homes of Bayh, Biden and Kaine, and spying on Obama's plane in Chicago, and it's like watching four still life paintings (and with two of the three stalker cams inside the three point line, I really have to scratch my head over how they make their budgeting decisions). 

Meanwhile, McCain can't get a word in edgewise, he's being hammered by yet another Obama TV ad over not knowing how many houses he lives in, the national media is reduced to hunting for tea leaves in the least likely places (I mean, really, like the Obama campaign would go to Sebelius' Kansas to print up Obama-Bayh stickers? Take that one with a gigantic grain of salt.)

I love it. I absolutely love it. The Great Sherlocks are coming up empty, and every hour the list of real people signing up for that cell phone text message grows and grows and grows...

Welcome to The Field's "Live from Denver" coverage... from outside the three point line!

Denver Or Bust!

By Al Giordano

The first contingent of the Field Hands posse will be en route to Denver for much of Friday. The next time you get a blog post from me will be sometime in the afternoon from the Mile High City.

If certain cell phone text messages and emails arrive while I'm en route, and all hell breaks loose, you 400+ copublishers are going to have to hold the fort and brush any ruffled Chicken Little feathers in my absence (our staff has been instructed to run a slightly heavier screen before approving "panic comments" from those unlucky ones who are not copublishers until I get online in the afternoon and can separate the wheat from the chaffe).

But, as I wrote the other day, I can also see the incentive for the Obama campaign to hold off on announcing its VP pick until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week! (More cell phone numbers and data!)

Once in Denver, we'll be gathering up the posse. Don't miss our garden party on Sunday afternoon from 3 to 6 p.m. (or the neighborly act of sponsoring it from afar!).

Here's one thing to greet us in Denver that I'm totally thrilled about (and will mitigate against the indignities of having to brush up against too many past-tense party insiders):

 

24.5 percent of the delegates are African-American
11.8 percent are Hispanic-American

4.6 percent are Asian-Pacific-American

2.5 percent are Native American

5.8 percent are GLBT

3.7 percent are categorized as "with disabilities" (a count that seems off by 96.3 percent, but, whatever!)

 

And if you haven't invited the Field Hands and I to your very cool parties, forums and events in Denver this weekend and week upcoming, the clock is ticking, baby, because, in the words of the late great Lower East Side philosopher Jackie Curtis: "Dahling, we ARE the party! The party doesn't really begin until the posse gets there!"

All sincere invitations shall be considered via this email address: narconews@gmail.com

Likewise, if you're a known and trusted old friend in town that wants my secret cell phone number, email that address.

See you at the Big Tent, in the convention hall, at the stadium, and in the smoking areas and shadows where the living still exist.

(And, hey: Now that the Denver City authorities have passed the Ben Masel amendment, does that mean that if I insist that it's not tobacco in my cigarette that the health police will leave me alone?)

And, from the heart: to all of you that chipped in to get me there (and so effectively protected our credential), thanks. I'll do my best to make it worth your while.

From somewhere in a country called América,

Al

Well, that Finishes Romney

By Al Giordano

 

(Google satellite tour of McCain's estates, courtesy of Jed.)

 

If Mike Huckabee's vocal opposition didn't already put the stake through the heart of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney's aspirations of becoming John McCain's vice presidential running mate, the McMansion controvery that erupted today - with McCain unable to recall how many homes he has (seven, eight, ten, thirteen, and still counting) - should chop Mitt once and for all off the short list.

Romney, billionaire, already counts with a mansion in Massachusetts and additional homes in New Hampshire and Utah. And since the whole point of his possible vice presidential nomination would be to try to win over voters in the Michigan of his childhood, who knows? Romney might have already acquired another one to bolster his "favorite son" status there!

McCain now has to vet everybody else on his checklist all over again and find the one (Pawlenty?) that has only one home, or the controversy gets a whole new set of legs. (But if Pawlenty turns out to have his own housing chain, this thing may come back to Huckabee by process of elimination!)

Ciao, Mitt!

Update: The national evening newscasts each emphasized McCain's "housing crisis" tonight. From Halperin's round-up:

ABC: ...report on housing fracas said McCain has nine homes on seven properties, listing them and showing photos. Said this is "not what McCain wants to be talking about," and the Obama campaign hope it's "highly exploitable" like Kerry's 2004 comment about troop funding. Stephanopoulos said the Obama team sees it as a seminal moment, while the McCain camp denies anyone considers McCain an elitist....
CBS: Led with news that Obama has made his veep decision, combined with coverage of McCain houses and subsequent battle. In a preview of an Obama interview with Harry Smith, Obama said his veep choice would be someone he would "feel comfortable with." Reported that McCain has "at least seven" homes "from coast to coast" and played clips from Obama and McCain Thursday ads, concluding that "the gloves are off" in the race...

NBC: ...Said McCain's "houses" remark was "the biggest political story of the day" and there's "indications" voters will hear more about it. Called McCain's answer to Politico "surprising," said for Obama it was "too good to resist" and campaign predicts working class families will have a tough time understanding it. Covered McCain response. Said "who is the more out of touch game" was a favorite of Clinton's, noted her campaigning for Obama in Florida...

 

 

Friday Morning Update: (From the airport.) The talking heads are abuzz with Halperin saying that McCain has decided to tap Romney as VP. Here's why that's not credible: McCain will have the luxury of knowing who the rival vice presidential nominee is before he has to pick his. It would be political malpractice to finalize his choice before knowing who they'll be up against, because his running mate will debate Obama's and there may be an opportunity for "counterprogramming" against any perceived weakness of the other guy's sidekick. More likely, GOP spinners are head-faking the Great Mentioners in an attempt to trick Obama into counterprogramming his choice against a possible McCain-Romney ticket. But nobody's going to fall for that. In the end, maybe McCain will be crazy enough to give Obama an opening to reach for Southern Evangelical Christians by picking Romney who many of their leaders distrust (putting various Southern states more into play), but there's no way he's finalized any veep decision already. He, like the world, is waiting on Obama's decision first.

Go West, Young Man!

By Al Giordano

Here's Obama's Western frontier route to Denver:

 

(Hat tip on the map to foxsucks81 at Dkos.)

SUNDAY, AUGUST 24, 2008

Eau Claire, Wisconsin

MONDAY, AUGUST 25, 2008

Quad Cities area, Iowa

TUESDAY, AUGUST 26, 2008

Kansas City, Missouri

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 27, 2008

Billings, Montana

THURSDAY, AUGUST 28, 2008

Denver, Colorado

And going with our rampant and irresponsible speculation based on little else to go on, here are my observations on what this will do to stock prices in Intrade:

Downward: No stops in Kansas or Ohio, not a good sign for Sebelius. No stops in Indiana, ditto for Bayh. No stops in Ohio, Indiana, and the choice of Eau Claire over Green Bay in Wisconsin - in fact, no stops in any state, city or town that Senator Clinton won in the primaries, take a deep breath and smile! All these stops in places where a populist economic message will be sought! Bad for Biden, Clark, Kerry, Richardson, Webb, or any other "foreign policy profile" pick. Doesn't look too likely it will be Warner either: economic populism's never been his thang.

Upward: Stops in Kansas City, Missouri (where Kaine went to High School) and the Eau Claire stop will draw in Twin Cities, Minnesota crowds and media (where Kaine was born)! McCaskill started her political career in Kansas City! (Yes, Feingold is from Wisconsin, but it's not his southern part of the state.) And Billings, Montana on the day the Veep nominee gives a speech later on in Denver? Schweitzer's stock goes up! (Sell Bayh! Buy Brian!)

Unchanged: Gore, Dean, Dodd and anybody else that can carry an economic populist message.

My hunch: This route begs for the "three point shot" and a DC outsider. Lots of Independent, All American, Washington Hating voters along that road! God bless 'em.

And from here in the nosebleed seats where the "celestial choirs" have been singing all along there rose a mighty and powerful chant: "Three point shot! Three point shot!"

Update: I hate to say this, but notice how that path goes right through a state that is not on his schedule, that being South Dakota? Could this be an attempt to re-brand Daschle as the populist voice of the western plains and mountains? That would be a difficult stunt to pull off, since before South Dakotans unseated him, he was not only a Senator, but the Majority Leader of the Senate. Not a three point shot. But plausible (and please don't shoot the messenger).

Burning Down the House!

By Al Giordano

 

This is one of those unscripted moments that changes the dynamic of a campaign. McCain doesn't know how many homes he owns!

It will be the subject of late night television comedy monologues and plenty of speechifying at the Democratic National Convention next week.

And here's a viral video that came out a few days ago, now with more than 200,000 views on YouTube, with more of the skinny on McCain's mansions:

 

The McCain camp's response in fact reveals a new weakness:

Does a guy who made more than $4 million last year, just got back from vacation on a private beach in Hawaii and bought his own million-dollar mansion with the help of a convicted felon really want to get into a debate about houses? Does a guy who worries about the price of arugula and thinks regular people "cling" to guns and religion in the face of economic hardship really want to have a debate about who's in touch with regular Americans?

 

Actually, um, yes, he does, and, yes, he can!

And whatever plans the GOP had to raise the "convicted felon" card (Rezko) against Obama just went out the windows of seven condominiums and ranches like hot air from a punched tire. Whooosh! Now the response need only be, "hey, I only have one house!"

(And here's a goombah public service announcement from yours truly: Italian-American working class families have been eating and growing arugula in the garden next to the tomatoes for generations; there's nothing novel or boutique or elite about that food among that part of the Roman Catholic swing vote. Put that microtrend in your pipe and smoke it, old man!)

Three-hundred-sixty-five degrees - Burning down the house! 

Update from the St. Petersburg Times (with graphic aid):

 



John McCain, sounding not exactly like a man of the people, said yesterday he didn't know how many homes he has. The Barack Obama is jumping on it:
"The campaign will spend the day surveying Floridians by phone to ask this question: "Yesterday, John McCain couldn't remember how many homes he owns because he has so many. The Obama campaign is trying to find Floridians who, like McCain, have lost track of the number of homes they own. Do you know how many homes you own?" The campaign will announce the results of the search late this afternoon.

 

Paging Dr. House!

Update II: Here's Tim Kaine, demonstrating flawless application of the Mack the Knife technique:

 

Smiling as he twists the dagger, and nary a trace of red. That's how to do it.

Update III: Obama's already on the "if you have just one house, like me" wavelength:

 

VP Watch: Light a Candle for the Three Point Shot

By Al Giordano

Here we are at the Thursday before the Democratic National Convention, and Obama headquarters has successfully kept its VP nominee under wraps, leaving the rest of us to speculate idly as we pass the time.

Nate notes that the geography of the Barack Obama's voyage from Springfield, Illinois (Lincolnian birthplace of his presidential campaign, where he'll appear on Saturday) to Denver, Colorado offers a "very good bio-building" opportunity for his vice presidential nominee, if that choice is Kansas governor (and Ohio native) Kathleen Sebelius (and if that choice is even known by Saturday). He speculates:

Start out in Springfield, and proceed to Sebelius' childhood home in Cincinnati by route of Indianapolis and Dayton. Big media appearances on Sunday AM in Cinncinati, and proceed to St. Louis by that evening, with a quick stop in Evansville or Bloomington, Indiana in between. Travel to Kansas City overnight, begin your Monday with an AM event there, and then cross the state line into Kansas and proceed to the state capital in Topeka...

 

Of course, minus Ohio the geography also favors Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, another oft-mentioned VP possibility.

And then there's this report out of Montana, where Governor Brian Schweitzer is the sheriff:

In what will be his fifth visit to Montana as a presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama will make a campaign stop Tuesday in Billings.

 

So, again, we're back to nobody knows nothin'.

The suggestion of a bus tour from Springfield to Denver, though, is compelling, through 57 swing-state Electoral Votes: 11 in Indiana, 20 in Ohio, 11 in Missouri, 6 in Kansas and 9 in Colorado. (And as Nate points out, a toe-touch in El Dorado, Kansas, from where Obama's late mother hailed, would make for good national theater, too.)

Iowa's 7 Electoral Votes, and Omaha, Nebraska's one, are not far off that path, either.

And then there were Obama's own words to Time magazine reporters Karen Tumulty and David Von Drehle yesterday when asked what he wants people to conclude from his VP choice:

Hopefully, the same thing that my campaign has told the American people about me. That I think through big decisions. I get a lot of input from a lot of people, and that ultimately, I try to surround myself with people who are about getting the job done, and who are not about ego, self-aggrandizement, getting their names in the press, but our focus on what's best for the American people.
I think people will see that I'm not afraid to have folks around me who complement my strengths and who are independent. I'm not a believer in a government of yes-men. I think one of the failures of the early Bush Administration was being surrounded by people who were unwilling to deliver bad news, or who were prone to simply feed the president information that confirmed his own preconceptions.

 

Tumulty concludes that the "pick is either Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana (low profile, both executive and foreign policy experience, but a supporter of the Iraq War), or a surprise whose name has not been circulating on the pundits' short lists."

Funny, but I don't get the same reading at all (the quote is like a Rorschach test upon which we can project our preexisting biases). I just don't think anybody sees or will buy Evan Bayh as "independent" or ready to "deliver the bad news" to his prospective boss. His strength is, rather, his docility and easy domestication to never upstage the boss.

That independent, straight-talking, shoe more readily fits... Brian Schweitzer.

A friend asked me recently, "have you ever been able to predict a vice presidential nominee?" The answer is no. Decisions like that simply are not based on normal data and the criteria changes from person to person, from year to year.

And if the pick doesn't come today, before the weekend's low-attention news cycle, it might not come until the convention next week, which will send the Great Mentioners into a frenzy of speculation that it will be an already established big name such as Clinton... or Gore... leaving Howard Dean as the final Hail Mary pass among the few names that need little introduction, and the only one of those that would be received as a DC outsider, which his rebel chairmanship of the DNC has miraculously not tarnished.

The likelihood that it will be a "three point shot" (i.e., someone considered to be from outside of Washington, such as a Schweitzer, a Sebelius or a Kaine) diminishes if the sun goes down today without a cell phone text message sent to two million close personal friends. Choosing a running mate not from the US Congress would allow Obama to run against Washington during a "change year" election (that was key in his defeat of the Clinton machine). There are understandable arguments for some DC insiders, too (mainly in the realm of "experience" and, in some cases, such as that of Chris Dodd, ideological), but the price - to cede so much of the outside turf - would be high, indeed.

I'm lighting a candle for the three point shot.

Update: Andrew Sullivan writes that an Obama-Bayh ticket would be one "in which a young duo - visually different - somehow amplify the themes of newness and generational change. Against McCain, the theme of generational change is essential to the Obama message."

That got me wondering about the age of the mentioned VP prospects, and it turns out that there are two younger than Bayh (Kaine, who is considered to have been vetted, and Michael Moore's proposal: that chief vetter Caroline Kennedy pull a Cheney and pick herself). Here are the relevant birthdates.

Older than Bayh:

Biden: November 20, 1942

Kerry: December 11, 1943

Dodd: May 27, 1944

Clark: December 23, 1944

Clinton: October 26, 1947

Richardson: November 15, 1947

Gore: March 31, 1948

Sebelius: May 15, 1948

Dean: November 17, 1948

Warner: December 15, 1954

Schweitzer: September 4, 1955

Bayh: December 26, 1955

 

Younger than Bayh:

Caroline Kennedy: November 27, 1957

Kaine: February 26, 1958

 

Still, Obama is younger than all of them:

Obama: August 4, 1961

 

In terms of generations, only Kaine and Kennedy really qualify - and only marginally so - as post-boomer (or what we who were there understand was the punk rock generation).

Update II: Nate was right on the concept if off on the exact itinerary. Here it is:

SUNDAY, AUGUST 24, 2008

Eau Claire, Wisconsin

MONDAY, AUGUST 25, 2008

Quad Cities area, Iowa

TUESDAY, AUGUST 26, 2008

Kansas City, Missouri

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Billings, Montana

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Denver, Colorado

(No swings through Sebelius-land but the Montana stop - on the day the VP nominee gets that moment in the spotlight - sure is interesting!)

(Also, these stops are all in states and cities where Obama beat Clinton: not where one would take her on tour if the number two. Just sayin'.)

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